The Command Post - Politics & Elections - Ahmadinejad Wins Iranian Presidency

June 25, 2005

Iran | Ahmadinejad Wins Iranian Presidency

The mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won 62% of the votes defeating ex-President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

According to the BBC, Ahmadinejad's win means all the organs of the Iranian state are now in the hands of conservative hardliners.

Mr Ahmadinejad, 49, who campaigned on a conservative Islamic platform, had surprised observers by beating five other candidates in the first round to reach the run-off.

The election was not without controversy.

First, the U.S. and Britain criticized the election because many reformists, and all women candidates, were barred from running.

Second, there were fresh ballot-rigging allegations in Friday's runoff election. The chairman of Rafsanjani's campaign in Tehran province, accused the basij, a militant volunteer force, and the revolutionary guards of trying to skew the results in Mr Ahmadinejad's favor:

"We know they are ballot rigging," he told the Guardian.

"We are receiving reports that the basij and revolutionary guards are involved in ballot rigging and cheating. There's a probability that ballot boxes in at least two mosques in Tehran will be annulled.
"They have also been making propaganda for Ahmadinejad and that's forbidden. The law states that in the last 24 hours before polls open, you are not allowed to issue publicity for candidates. "

The Los Angeles Times reports that Ahmadinejad has never held an elected office. He has been the appointed mayor of Tehran for just two years. A former Revolutionary Guard and instructor for the pro-government Basiji militia, he talks tough toward Iran's enemies and promises to reverse what he views as the watering down of the militant politics of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic's founder.

Ahmadinejad's victory doesn't bode well for any improvement in relations between Iran and the West. Ahmadinejad said that better ties with the United States would not be a priority. He doesn't support Western-style democracy and last week said:

We did not have a revolution in order to have democracy.

From California Yankee.

Posted by Dan Spencer at June 25, 2005 07:58 AM | TrackBack

Comments

According to my information, there is a signifigant part of the Iranian populace that is, to put it crudely; tired of this sh!t.

A generation ago the Iranian people thought that placing themselves under the protection of Islam would save them. It took a while, but they have since realized that they essentially traded one master for another, albeit of a different nature.

What is interesting about the Iranian situation is that most of the people in charge genuinely believe that they are doing the right thing, in terms of the way they control that nation.

The Iranian govt isn't run by stupid people. They don't want a confrontation with the US, because they know it's unwinnable. They can't win on conventional weapons, and they CERTAINLY can't win on unconventional ones.

Furthermore, they consider themselves to be important to the protection of Islam and are unwilling to simply sacrifice themselves to the cause. Individual martyrdom is one thing, elimination of an Islamic nation is another.

Interestingly, their pursuit of nuclear power really IS for mostly peaceful purposes. Sure, they want to have nukes, but only to prevent US military intervention. Additonally, while they might love to hand off a nuke to some terrorist and watch NY or Washington burn, there is a certain mythology in the Middle East that the CIA and the Mossad have almost magical powers.
(Remember the notion that any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic?)
Anyway, they're not going to want to hand over a nuke unless they are ABSOLUTELY certain they can get away with it, and they really aren't certain of that at all.
Kim Jong might do it, because he assumes the protection of China, but that's another subject. Although I would mention that if Jong did that and the US was hit with a nuke that was traced back to him, the Chinese might well nuke him first, as a way of avoiding American intervention.
(No need to bother Mr President. We have already vaporized everything above the 38th parallel. You can also take your troops home now.)

Back to Iran...
Their nuclear ambitions are mostly based on power.
Oil is a commodity, and with China & India sucking it up at an alarming rate, it's become too valuable a commodity to burn. Furthermore, Peak Oil is coming. There is disagreement as to when, but no sane analyst believes that it wont happen, probably sooner than later.

To sum up...

The best way to deal with Iran is to NOT pressure them.

Iraq must be a sucess so that the Iranian people can see that there really IS such a thing as an Islamic Democracy, but if we take the pressure off of Iran...
Well, the thing is... it is outside pressure that is holding the Iranian govt together. Without outside pressure, they'll be in trouble.

My prediction:

If the Israeli/Palestinian conflict grinds to a halt and the palestinians get a state...
If Iraq manages to stand on it's own feet and STAY on it's own feet...
If the world, especially the west begins to essentially ignore Iran, eliminating the outside pressure...

Under those circumstances, Iran's hardline govt will fall within a decade. By "fall", I don't mean "collapse"...
By "fall" I mean they will gradually moderate over several years until we all wake up one morning and discover that the Iranians have a moderate govt that is more interested in trade than confrontation.

Posted by: A Vet at June 27, 2005 10:32 AM