Now that Saddam's regime is crumbling like a _______ (house of cards, sand castle at high tide, frat boy being turned down by a supermodel -- fill in your own simile), the question that the pundits are asking is "why didn't he just give up?" He just couldn't win, why didn't he take his money and go off to Syria, Saudi Arabia or France?

I've heard all sorts of speculation that France gave him some hope, that he thought that the Arab league, the UN or someone would save him, somehow, someway. I think the answer boils down to this -- you cannot win a war when you insist on shooting the messenger.

The incredible lies that the Saddam's Minister of Information Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf seemed like crazy to anyone who watched the embedded reporters' dispatches from the field. I believe that it also represents the official line of battlefield intel that went up the chain of command to Saddam:

The upbeat messages from the Iraqi military about what they call American battlefield defeats not only fly in the face of reality but seem to place the Iraqi government in a state of fantasy.

The American officials who monitor the conversations of the Iraqi military and listen to the command-and-control systems said that Iraqi generals speaking over satellite phones and other communications to Mr. Saddam generally talk about high American casualties, defeating the Americans in various cities and repelling the American assault into the international airport on the edge of Baghdad.

"He's being told by his cronies, by military officers by political appointees they have control of the airport," said one officer who has listened to the transmissions. "They say, `We're ready, we're fighting, we're moving to attack.' He's being told lies."

Intelligence officers said Saddam Hussein's regime has so intimidated and brutalized officials that military officers may be fearful of passing on accurate information that could infuriate the Iraqi leader, if he is still alive, or his son.
The inaccurate information has rippled across the Iraqi regime, creating an Orwellian dialogue with the public.

Today, for example, Iraq's Information Minister, Mohammed Al-Sahaf, held a bizarre news conference in Baghdad, in which he said that "Baghdad is safe," that there were no American troops in the city, and that Americans were full of "lies" when they said Baghdad was under siege. Beyond this, he said that American soldiers were committing suicide and "sick in their minds." He said that the sound of gunfire in Baghdad could be heard because Americans were being killed.

It would have taken a brave man indeed to tell Saddam that he had no chance to win. If you are faced with two choices, either tell Saddam the truth and be shot on the spot or tell Saddam what he wants to hear and hope that you somehow survive the coalition onslaught later, what would you do? Lie, baby, Lie!

I find the pervasive presence of statues and likeness of Saddam all over Iraq to be quite telling. I think that there was a part of Saddam that believed that the people would really fight for him. He probably knew that the people feared him, but, well, if everyone keeps telling you how great you are it is hard not to start believing it. Saddam thought that he could win because he believed his own press clippings.