|
|
March 24, 2003
It's about the Iraqis, Stupid
The Coalition forces, despite their technological superiority, do have one weakness: they cannot control an Iraq that doesn't want to be controlled. One thing the NRA has right is that an armed populace - and the Iraqi populace is armed - cannot be controlled by an invader with any conscience. Of course, they can easily be controlled by a regime prepared to do this. But this is about Iraq, not Gun Control. So provided the populace rises en masse, women and children at the front, the Coalition would be in deep trouble. This is not happening. Coalition forces are now within 100 km of Baghdad, and still rolling forward. It's virtually a replay of May, 1945 in Western Germany. Even with some of the original cast. Many conscripts who surrender at the first opportunity. Small pockets of Nazi - or in this case, Ba'athist - fanatics, who, knowing their own crimes, are prepared to fight to the death in ambushes. A populace going about their normal lives, just wanting for it to be all over, and deeply mistrustful of the Liberators. Some people who think "Saddam's a bastard, but he's our bastard." Some people who are saying "Thank God you came when you did, what kept you?". I'd expect more of the same. When we get to Baghdad, there may be some street-clearing operations, if the opposition isn't too high. Until recently I didn't think there would be, but from all reports the Coalitions MOUT (Military Operations in Urban Terrain) doctrine and training are paying off, with far fewer civilian and friendly casualties than could reasonably have been expected. But more likely we'll hold off, and let the Free Iraq Forces currently in training go in, identify who the Ba'athists are, and get the Iraqi populace to actively aid us. This too is already happening - considerable support has been given on-camera by Iraqis pointing out where the Ba'athist Werewolves are holed up. So what will happen in the coming days? Any conventional battle involving armour etc will see the Iraqi military severely handled. If they use Chemicals on the Coalition Military, then things will slow down a lot, but with no real effect. There may well be significant casualties - possibly hundreds - in the initial strike though. Though the weather may stop chemicals from being used altogether. Meanwhile, the port facilities at Um Qasr must be de-mined. It's unlikely that the Ba'athists mined it nearly as thoroughly as the Nazis did to Cherbourg, but then again, we have days rather than months to clear it. The port should be clear just in time to get in aid for the people at Basra, and possibly to take in the 4th Division which is on its way (though this may land at Kuwait instead). In summary, study in detail what happened in Western Germany in April to July, 1945. There will be many differences, but even more similarities. Posted By Alan E Brain at March 24, 2003 06:18 PMComments
Sorry to go immediately OT but I just realized the Alan E Brain moniker from some threads from some time back on LGF. You and I didn't see eye to eye but still, it's good to see your posts getting such good press sir. Congratulations! Posted by: NTropy at March 28, 2003 02:05 AMTa, but which Good Press? I must admit being quoted on Instapundit qualifies though. Sorry, severely worried about Salam Pax at the moment :-( Fingers firmly crossed. Posted by: Alan E Brain at March 28, 2003 03:10 AMDear AEB: I have had the same thought--about the parallels with March-April 45 after the Rhine was crossed by Allies--the last few days, and then I log onto Instapundit, link over, and see it well expressed by you. Anyone that's interested in further reading, try the book "Company Commander", by Charles(?) MacDonald, who was a company commander of US infantry and describes in detail how they had to clear through small German towns in the last days of the war. As I recall he described how the strength of the resistance varied as a function of the fanaticism of the local Nazi Party leaders and/or the presence of any SS or Hitler Youth units. I think he said that in some towns they found Germans who had been executed by their own. MacDonald, who died a few years ago, went on to become one of the authors of the official US Army history of WWII and I believe was the Chief US Army Historian for many years. His story was gripping for me as a former infantry officer and his life's work is a great legacy for his fellow GI's who are now of course fast disappearing. God bless him and our young soldiers/Marines in Iraq. (I guess this is an Aussie site? so I include them in this blessing--they're always there when we need help. Here's one American who hasn't forgotten). Posted by: Paul H at March 28, 2003 02:40 PMIf you read through some of Salam's last comments, I almost suspected he was becomming a little more nationalistic. I hope he(she) is alright, but I also hope that the media whirlwind hasn't swept him/her into favoring a 'Saddamistic' line. Posted by: jackal at March 30, 2003 05:36 AMYou're ready for professional punditry Brain. You've managed to get on both sides of every point, and mix a grasp of the obvious with facts to which there is no way this side of Hades you could be familiar. Have you been contacted by a cable network yet? Does it occur to you that we have not yet engaged in MOUT? Posted by: Casca at March 30, 2003 12:56 PM"You're ready for professional punditry Brain." Thanks. Considering I've never blogged before, this is High Praise indeed. "You've managed to get on both sides of every point, and mix a grasp of the obvious with facts to which there is no way this side of Hades you could be familiar." Guess I'm from the other side, then. But seriously, if I make a prediction before the event, and am correct, this doesn't mean I've a pact with sinister powers. I just read a lot. And sometimes I get it wrong. *Shrug* "Have you been contacted by a cable network yet?" No, just a few dead-tree groups. Pros, not amateurs like me. "Does it occur to you that we have not yet engaged in MOUT?" Having seen the fighting in Um Qasr and other towns on the Goggle-Box, no, not for a moment. Oh wait, you were being sarcastic.... Posted by: Alan E Brain at March 31, 2003 09:52 AMPost a comment
|