May 27, 2004
Iraq - Not a Disaster
<b?Note: The following editorial was posted by "DennisThePeasant" at Roger L. Simon’s blog comment’s section. I am posting it here with permission, because it is excellent.
Those who are calling Iraq a disaster have the wrong criteria, and Vietnam comparisons are only appropriate in the nature of some of the internal conflict in the US.
If you accept the premise that the War On Terror is a necessity and that the forces of Islamic Totalitarianism cannot be dealt with via the Police/Crime Model, then the inescapable conclusion is that the invasion of Iraq is a complete and total success.
After 9/11, the first and foremost problem facing the United States was quite simply, "How do we force our enemies to engage us on terms most favorable to us?" The Jihadists purposefully designed a strategy to enable their forces to engage the United States in an asymmetrical fashion, thus attempting to neutralize overwhelming U.S. advantages in men, material, striking power and mobility.
The U.S. faced exactly the same problem in Viet Nam, and Gen. Westmoreland, hamstrung by the Johnson Administration's bizarre rules of engagement, failed over the course of years to design a strategy that allowed the U.S. to engage on terms that allowed our advantages to be utilized to maximum effect.
In fact, it took Gen. Giap's Tet Offensive to actually create the conditions for the U.S. to engage under favorable terms, and the result was a complete military defeat of the Viet Cong and North Viet Nam's Army regulars (Gen. Giap has said so in several different interviews). The U.S. could not defeat the Communists because they could not force them to fight sustained engagements on terms that allowed the U.S. to maximize its' military advantages.
The genius of the Iraq Invasion is that it immediately took the initiative away from the Jihadists and handed it to the U.S. military, thus neutralizing the Jihadists ability to wage asymmetric war at the times and in the places of their choosing. For political reasons understood by all in the Middle East, the Jihadists have no other choice than to stand and fight on U.S. terms at the time and place dictated by the U.S.. This is because they cannot allow an Middle Eastern democracy, created, nurtured and sanctioned by the U.S. to exist. The had to fight in Iraq first and foremost, and not because they wanted to, but because they were forced to.
Similarly, the settling, very early in the conflict, of a date for creation of an Iraqi government forced the Jihadists to enter into a conflict at the time of our choosing. U.S. forces were in place at the time of the setting of that date, the Jihadist forces were not. It would be a fare bet that the Jihadists have been forced to field a weaker force than they would have had they the additional time to recruit, train and arm their forces.
Thus, the Iraq War has solved the single most difficult problem that faces a army of overwhelming power going up against a guerilla force...how to force the guerillas to fight on the army's terms. George Bush's "Bring it on" was not false bravado, it is the expression of a Commander-In-Chief's complete understanding of what was necessary strategically to enter the War On Terror under conditions favorable to the U.S. rather than the Jihadists.
It should also be remembered that if there is the possibility of 'quagmire' in Iraq, the risks fall equally on the Jihadists and the U.S.. Quagmire in Iraq is a two-way street. Despite the fanaticism we have seen from many in their ranks, their sustained appeal to Arabs in the Middle East is very much a function of their military success. Martyrdom may appeal to some under any conditions, but history has shown (even in the case of Japan's Kamikazes) for the vast majority martyrdom has no appeal if it is viewed as being in furtherance of a hopeless cause.
The longer the U.S. has forces in the field, killing Jihadists at rates that far exceed their own casualties, the greater the probability that the Jihadists have difficulty in sustaining their operations. The Arab World may have looked at 9/11 as a Jihadist success, but with casualities mounting and no battlefield or political success to speak of, it is doubtful Iraq can be viewed to date by Arabs as a Jihadist success.
Beyond that, U.S. occupation of Iraq has removed all Arab leverage on the U.S. with regards to basing troops in the region, and has put about 1/5th of known oil reserves under the physical control of the U.S.. Again, decreased Arab leverage in the long run.
Simply put, there is no possibility of the U.S sustaining an actual military defeat in the field in Iraq. Period. The only way the U.S. can "lose the war" is to choose to lose the war. As with Viet Nam (and just about the only meaningful parallel with Viet Nam I can find in Iraq), this choice will be a politcal one, rather than a military one.
Posted By John Moore (Useful Fools blog) at May 27, 2004 04:42 PM
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We won Viet Nam?
We're winning Iraqinam?
Bush and brethren pissed away military equipment, overextended troops and reserve, and supporting civilian resources without any long term plan for the war, it's aftermath, or reconstruction. Hence they say we're 'winning', but not militarily vulnerable as hell, running out of resources, and having to go out 'on the street' to restock.
I support the cause from the beginning.
If you still believe the spin from Bush and brethren about this war, you can probably spin, believe, and explain how 76% industrial capacity means our economy is growing, too. And, don't forget that now the food service counts for some of our real industrial jobs sent overseas.
Posted by: Bubba at May 27, 2004 06:07 PM
Bubba you are a F*&^&$# idiot. No where does it say that we won the Vietnam war. RTFP.
Posted by: Doug at May 27, 2004 06:16 PM
The longer the U.S. has forces in the field, killing Jihadists at rates that far exceed their own casualties, the greater the probability that the Jihadists have difficulty in sustaining their operations.
This is idiotic. We are helping them recruit jihadis at a rate that exceeds both.
Not to mention we are killing innocent civilians at rates that far exceed the rates of dead jihadis and setting ourselves up as torture chamber experts in front of the world, our enemies and the growing number of our former allies.
Beyond that, U.S. occupation of Iraq has removed all Arab leverage on the U.S. with regards to basing troops in the region, and has put about 1/5th of known oil reserves under the physical control of the U.S.. Again, decreased Arab leverage in the long run.
Now that is laughable, how long do you think that will last? I give it a year.
Posted by: Kelm at May 27, 2004 06:54 PM
This is not the same Bubba that used to frequent here.
Posted by: Jeff B at May 27, 2004 07:05 PM
Kelm, are you the most intelligent creature in your family?
Dumbass said, "This is idiotic. We are helping them recruit jihadis at a rate that exceeds both."
I say, "Hey, you are one sharp sob. How did you get into the jihads books to know how many recruits thev've had volunteer to be killed by the coalition?"
Dumbass said, "Now that is laughable, how long do you think that will last? I give it a year"
I say, "Not only a 'sharp sob', you're one with a really positive attitude. Bet you're a hit with the chicks and a blast on a date."
Posted by: Jeff B at May 27, 2004 07:12 PM
Recruiting Jihadists. That is Total Bull shit. These are cowards, so who gives a damn about those in Saudi or Pakistan, etc.
The alternative to our long term basing and success in Iraq is the elimination of Iran's Mullahs, Syria and Saudi among others.
Which will you choose?
Posted by: leaddog2 at May 27, 2004 07:16 PM
This meme, that we are helping Al Qaeda recruit due to the action in Iraq stands the truth on its head. Al Qaeda had over 20,000 recruits run through its training camps in Afghanistan in the 1990's. They didn't need the action in Iraq to draw recruits.
Quite the contrary, the number one inducement for Al Qaeda recruitment prior to 9-11 was the sanctions against Iraq which OBL credited with having (and every Arab believes) killed over 1 million innocent Iraqi citizens. In Arab eyes, this was a genocide perpetrated by the US and blithely dismissed by the insouciant Madame Albright who, in a television segment broadcast throughout the region, when asked if the sanctions were worth it given the death and devastation, cavalierly replied "Yes, no question", inflaming sentiment throughout the Islamic nations.
Americans were ill served by their media in the 1990's, which ignored overseas problems in service of their man in the White House. And, so we had the WTC I, and the Khobar Towers, and Somalia, and the bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, and the bombing of the USS Cole, and bin Laden's fatwah declaring jihad in 1998. And the hatred ballooned and festered while confidence grew that we could not, would not strike back effectually, culminating in the 9-11 atrocity.
What we have done in Iraq is to lance the boil. And, like treating a boil, it may be a little painful in the near term but, in the long term, it is the only way it would ever have been possible to restore the region to a state of health and stability.
Posted by: Reid at May 27, 2004 10:26 PM
More and more Iraqis are joining the battle beside us against the Jihadis. That is the answer. A free Iraq will provide the rest of the Mid East an alternative to the oppression offered by bin Laden, the Baathists, and the mullahs. We are winning, Ask anyone on the ground over there. Fallujah is calm, and the Mehdi Army is no more. If the anti American Left can buck up and realize we are doing some good here we might effectively change the world for the betterment of future generations.
Posted by: Gerry Owen at May 27, 2004 11:29 PM
Well written, but the complete opposite of any semblance of reality. If what you printed was true, then every mainstream conservative pundit would be singing this piece from the highest mount.
But they aren't. Because this piece is the equivalent of seeing a broken glass on the floor and saying it's full of Dom.
This war has been a disaster. Comparing it to Vietnam isn't doing it any favours.
Posted by: Vince at May 28, 2004 08:29 AM
Vince, how about just a hint of facts or reason to back up your assertions or analogies? On the other hand, consider this material linked on instapundit just today:
Meanwhile Peter Robinson echoes a point of Drezner's -- that the prewar situation was unravelling and something had to be done -- and notes:
Food in Iraq is everywhere available, clean water is flowing, electricity is being produced at levels higher than those before the war, hundreds of schools have been rebuilt and some 30,000 teachers trained—and whereas before the war Iraqi civilians were dying untimely deaths at the rate of 36,000 a year, now even an anti-war group estimates that in the last 14 months the number of Iraqi civilians to die unnatural deaths numbers at most about 11,000.
This represents a record of which George W. Bush is supposed to be ashamed?
(In a later post Robinson notes that the number of Iraqi lives saved is almost certainly much higher than the above number suggests.)This isn't really in disagreement with Drezner, who notes in his blog post that he thinks things in Iraq are better than generally believed. To this mix you might add this post from Iraqi blogger Mohammed, who seems happier with the situation than either Drezner or Robinson, perhaps because his expectations are lower: "the reason for this is that I have lived under Saddam."
Or consider these facts from that bastion of the neocons, the LA times:
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-boot27may27,1,7228821.column
You people who just scream "disaster, disaster, Bush is an idiot" just make me sick. Not only is your argument devoid of facts or analysis, it's also just plain anti-American.
Posted by: samuelv at May 28, 2004 08:44 AM
Quoth Reid:
the number one inducement for Al Qaeda recruitment prior to 9-11 was the sanctions against Iraq which OBL credited with having (and every Arab believes) killed over 1 million innocent Iraqi citizens.
First of all, not every Arab believes this. Most Iraqis understand that it was Saddam who killed so many innocent Iraqis. Those parades of dead babies were arranged by Saddam as a propeganda stunt, nothing more.
Posted by: gus3 at May 28, 2004 12:29 PM
Not to mention that they are losing the qualified, experienced terrorists and replacing them with inexperenced and uneducated guys from the slums, literally thrusting a rocket launcher in their hands and pushing them out the door.
I'd rather face ten clueless losers then one smart bastard any day of the week.
Posted by: Brian at May 28, 2004 01:31 PM
gus3 - Almost every Arab believes this, from the Fertile Crescent to the Empty Quarter. Why shouldn't they? The UN itself is on record reporting that over 500,000 children alone died who otherwise would not have. I didn't say who they blamed for it, necessarily, though the volunteers flocking to Afghanistan in the '90's sure blamed us.
Now, what's second of all?
Posted by: Reid at May 28, 2004 02:46 PM
Posting phony numbers and stealing both?
And the world wants the U.N. back. Ha!
Man, do we have some real prospects there
for Louisiana swampland purchases.
Posted by: leaddog2 at May 28, 2004 03:07 PM
"Beyond that, U.S. occupation of Iraq has removed all Arab leverage on the U.S. with regards to basing troops in the region, and has put about 1/5th of known oil reserves under the physical control of the U.S.. Again, decreased Arab leverage in the long run."
It's not about oil. It's about liberating the Iraqi people from a dictator that we had nothing to do with. Conservation, while a personal virtue, is not a basis for national policy.
I'm glad for all the good news out of Iraq, schools, hospitals, health care, and baptist missionaries, all the placards of the right wing. For $110,000,000 so far there had better be something to show for it.
This post was very articulate, but Iraq and the Jihadist didn't have that much to do with each other. The support for suicide bombers was synical manipulation of Arab sentiment, who reguard these people as freedom fighters. Saddam was a 'bad muslem' and in the Jihadist's cross hairs. A lot of this was rationalization in after thought presented as motive.
"is the expression of a Commander-In-Chief’s complete understanding of what was necessary strategically to enter the War On Terror under..."
Blind assertion.
Just as personal wealth is built slowly, we have been neglecting the ME 'portfolio' for decades and now we are paying back the catch up in blood. Jordon and Kuwait could have been nurtured into more democratic countries, some of the Gulf States are coming along on their own paths. The Iranians, once they get done with their religious madness, already have the shells of the democracy left from when we replaced it by the Shah. Their trauma might serve as a useful object lesson, but if we go in guns blazing, I don't think we will be safer from the Jihadist, us overthrowing an islamist state that way could breed even more terrorist than Iraq has (Oh, I know you guys will deny that this has happened so save it). The real devil is Saudi Arabia, but they are our friends, right? We have the luxury of saying that we haven't done anything wrong in the past AND anything else would be unpatriotic.
Posted by: mac33 at May 29, 2004 11:57 AM
This article is the biggest load of crap ive ever read.
sure, theres good news coming out of Iraq, but earning the hatred of middle eastrn arabs by oppressing them and causing asymetrical casualties is NOT goint to win the war on terror. Thats only going to happen thru heatrs and minds.
Terrorist groups feed on a reservior of discontent ,an expression of pollitical feeling. Basically theyre political parties with bombs. Only by draining that discontent can a victory be acheived. The isrealis cant even stop hamas in gaza, despite the most sophisticated security apparatus in the world ,ringing whats basically a huge prison. We could NEVER hope to defeat terror if it truly gained ba powerful hold over the muslim or arab world.
Posted by: westcountry at May 30, 2004 07:32 PM
mac23
Iraq and the Jihadist didn't have much to do with each other
Not true. They had common interests. The fact that Saddam was not a true Muslim is utterly irrelevant. After all, the Jihadis use American made weapons and communications equipment, and we are the enemy. Saddam had a strong interest in attacking the US - strong enough that he tried to kill a former president, a reckless act of war.
This "afterthought" is nonsense. It was one of the most important reasons for the war, and anyone who paid attention was aware of it from the start. The only thing that appears to be an afterthough is the "flypaper effect."
As far as the ME "portfoloi" - it has been worked hard for at least 30 years. Your assertions are certainly not supported by any facts. Nurturing Jordan, which is mostly Palestinian, into "democracy," with its tremendous sensitivity to Iraqi needs and behavior, would be very, very dangerous. Furthermore, the monarchy there is relatively benevolent. Iraq was another story.
The problem with Saudi Arabia is easy to describe and very hard to fix: oil. To change its regime could cause dramatic disruption to world economies (note that the US is putting extra into the strategic oil reserve and this may be one reason). SA must be forced to stop exporting Wahhabiism which is the greatest danger. But SA is a very complex place, so changing it is tough - look at all the trouble the Administration had from asshats for taking braq. Saudi Arabia would be much worse when oil goes to $100 per barrel.
In other words, the mideast is complex and requires different approaches to difference countries. Why should we force a democratcy on Jordan when Jordan is serving our cause, treating its people well, and the strategic cost of failure would be very high?
The real problem countries at the moment are:
Saudi Arabia
Iran
potentially Pakistan
North Korea
France and Russia (in a different way)
westcountry
Your post is so overly simplistic that I will only address one point: Many in the middle east will hate us no matter what we do. This is for the following reasons:
1) THe entire pan-Arab world has contributed almost nothing to science or though or commerce in the last 200 years. Europe has, and now Asia has. They resent us for their failures. They have money only because of the random luck of having oil, which we did all the labor to find and put into production.
2) Radical Islam is like communism - it is a utopian ideology (if you are a young man) that solves all the problems and lets you focus your frustratons.
3) The United States and the west export popular culture to the world. Much of it is very offensive (and yet very popular) to Muslims. Whenn they see our advertisements or watch our TV shows or listen to our music, they see a world they hate: One in which women are equal to men; sex is treated radically different; people are (to them) wealthy and happy.
4) We support the two democracies in the regioni - Turkey (non-Arab) and Israel (which is the biggest problem). If you can show how to deNazify Arabia and get rid of their antiSemitism (it's a lot more than anti-Zionism), good luck.
2)
Posted by: John Moore (Useful Fools) at May 31, 2004 01:11 AM
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