The Command Post
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January 27, 2004
Who's Out, Who's Not: Instant NH Analysis

If the numbers hold up, it looks like Kerry could have another impressive victory in New Hampshire. With 71% of Districts reporting CNN has called the race. Kerry appears to have won by around 15% of the vote. So the question now is who still has a chance and who doesn't.

Kerry
Okay ... so its obvious Kerry is now beyond a shadow of a doubt the "front runner". But there is still much to be decided.

Dean
The only thing more certain than Kerry's frontrunner status is Dean lack of status. Dean needed a win in New Hampshire, not just because he lost Iowa, but also because he isn't really polling well in the states that are to vote in next week's primaries. Even before tonight he was polling fifth in both South Carolina and Oklahoma, fourth in Arizona. No fresh poll data is available for the other states participating ... but I wouldn't expect much there either. The question mark left for Dean is who will he endorse. Important: Dean technically still has a delegate lead, although that should change very fast as the primaries move on. This is possible because not all delegates are tied to the primary elections. For instance, New Hampshire has 27 total delegates but only 22 tied to tonight's primary. How these other delegates are assigned is extraordinarily complicated but you can read more here. So even if Dean loses he migth still play an important roll in Boston

Edwards
While Edwards only received about 13% of the New Hampshire vote, he's still in good position for the long run. He has a respectable 5 point lead in South Carolina with 18% still undecided. He's running 2nd in Okalahoma, only 5 points behind Clark who will probably maintain that lead due to the state's proximity to Arkansas. Edwards is also polling pretty well in Arizona. While he may not have the energy to win the nomination, he can certainly rack up enough delegates to be a factor in the nomination.

Clark
While Clark is certainly weakened by his performance in New Hampshire, he's not dead yet. He's doing well in South Carolina, Okalahoma and Arizona. He might just be able to hang in long enough to benefit from some infighting between Kerry and Edwards. Yeah, I know they're both brandishing their happy faces at the moment, but once Dean is beaten (if he isn't already) they will have to turn on each other. Unless, of course, a backroom deal is struck to secure a Kerry-Edwards ticket.

Lieberman
There isn't much to say here except ... oh, poor Joe. Probably one of the most fair minded of all the candidates, he unfortunately lacks the ability to get voters excited about taking on Bush. Perhaps he lacks the temperament as well. Lieberman can play an important roll on the stump however, if he picks up the banner for either Kerry or Edwards. He would brings an air of establishment support to either. By dropping out sooner and supporting Edwards he might even earn himself a cabinet position, were Edwards to win. But I wouldn't expect Joe to do anything but what he thinks is right for the party or the country.

Sharpton and Kuncinich
Well ... nevermind.

All this being said, I have a feeling that most everyone will hang on until next week at least. Now that delegates are assigned porportionately, any candidate could rack up a hand full of delegates that he could then hang on to until the convention. Doing so keeps them in the process even if not as a viable candidate. If the race turns out to be close going into the convention, those delegates could then be traded for something of value (whatever that means).

Posted By Michael Van Winkle at January 27, 2004 09:32 PM | TrackBack
Comments

Dean is NOT Running ads in the
Februrary 3rd states, has conceded
that he will win NONE of those 7
contests and believes he can still
become the Democratic nominee.

What in this world are he and Crazy
Dennis smoking?

Posted by: leaddog2 at January 30, 2004 08:44 AM

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