Well, I hate to say it, but I was right. It appears that Dean doesn’t have quite the appeal that everyone thought. Of course the results of the Iowa caucuses do not bear directly on the New Hampshire results, but indirectly they are huge. The Iowa numbers will take a circuitous path this week, through the national punditocracy and into the concerned minds of New Hampshire voters. I know that I am on the record saying Iowa doesn’t matter and it shouldn’t, but Dean made it important and lost. So in anticipation of the ceaseless opining you are sure to hear this week, let’s look at the buzz words you can expect.

Bounce

Kerry and Edwards are sure to get a bounce from this coup and I must say they deserve it. However right I may have been about Dean, I was wrong about Edwards. A month ago I wondered if Edwards shouldn’t start shopping for VP commitments from Dean or Clark. Now it could potentially be the reverse ... although it’s unlikely. If I had to bet Edwards will be VP for either Kerry or Dean; both need help getting through the South.

High-roller

No matter what happens to Kerry from here on out, he gets my respect as the chutzpah candidate of Primary 2004 (Sorry Joe … maybe you’ll get it back). Any man who mortgages his home to fund a campaign that appears to be going nowhere, and then wins, deserves a few grunts of respect. I’d buy him a beer if I could. Kerry has gone from has been to front runner in a week. His New Hampshire poll numbers have been trending upwards all week, from 11% on January 12th to 19% just yesterday. Even if he gets a mere 5% bounce it will at least be a three way dead heat in New Hampshire next week.

Disappointment

Dean will certainly try to spin his way into a marginal victory. “If you had told us a year ago that we would come in third in Iowa …yada, yada, yada”. Dean’s post caucus speech was something to behold, a lesson in not learning lessons. Dean approached the delicate moment with his token pomp and anger. If you come in a close second this might be appropriate when you are 20% behind the winner, you might want to reconsider your approach. Again this is just Iowa. I repeat THIS IS JUST IOWA. But the South was going to be hard enough for Dean to win with a weak Edwards and Iowa and New Hampshire wins under his belt. Now with a devastating disappointment and a stronger Edwards, his southern support, tentative as it was, is sure to evaporate. Furthermore, his main constituency, the anti-war crowd, went for Kerry. This is probably the biggest slap in the face to Dean who had touted himself as the only true anti-war Democrat.

New Hampshire

The nation’s most important primary just became even bigger. Kerry’s big upset in Iowa against one “front-runner” precipitates an even more exciting showdown next week against both. Clark shrewdly skipped Iowa and has had New Hampshire all to himself this week, so he’s got a sort of head start. But the national news this week will be all about Kerry.

Endorsements

Not that it really matters but if this week’s losers fold, they are sure to make endorsements. I expect that Sharpton will endorse Kerry and possibly Gephardt as well. Kucinich will probably endorse Dean; this is probably not going to help much.

Campaign Cash

Who’s got it? Dean has the bigger war chest but Kerry won’t have much difficulty getting more. The key will be whether Kerry’s fundraising machine can adjust quickly to his new status as “front-runner”. If not they may not keep the honor. Dean has about $12.5 million in cash while Kerry has only $8 million. Dean will be willing to spend big because he has to win New Hampshire in order to revitalize his base. Edwards and Clark aren’t broke, but have less cash on hand than Dean and Kerry. Edwards will probably “pass go” due to his Iowa efforts. Keep in mind that Bush has at least $73 million. (These cash numbers are from the FEC website so they might be a little outdated.)

Electability

Dean already had an electability problem. Despite the fact that Iowa is not really a vote, it still confirms most Democrats’ fear. Look for Dean to move to the center … despite his declaration that the center is not in Democratic party’s future.

It will be an exciting week regardless. Now I have to go spend time with my wife instead of my computer. Thanks for tuning in.