[These two David Hogberg columns originally appeared and Cornfield Commentary and are reprinted here with permission of the author]

WHY IS KERRY SURGING?

This phenomenon is probably the most difficult to explain. Senator John Kerry until very recently had run a dreadful campaign, going from front runner early last year to plunging in the polls in his must win state of New Hampshire. Any article written about his campaign even two weeks ago probably would have begun, “It is time to write the obituary of the presidential aspiration of John Kerry.” In fact, a recent article in National Review did pretty much just that. Now, however, in today's Des Moines Register poll, he has pulled ahead.

My guess is that two factors are contributing to Kerry’s sudden rise. My sources tell me that Kerry has dramatically improved his campaigning style. (I haven’t seen Kerry speak at any Iowa events lately, so this info is second hand.) In the past he came off as the stiff, boring technocrat. Funny how Massachusetts seems to produce a lot of those types of politicians, at least the ones that don’t drive off bridges. From what I hear, Kerry’s style is now warmer and more approachable. Since a candidate can meet a lot of caucus-goers in the last month before the caucus, an improvement in campaign style can boost one’s position in the polls. Although, Slate would disagree with me, so I have to admit I’m on shaky ground with this point.

Second, in the last two weeks the Kerry campaign has been running what is the early nominee for best campaign commercial of 2004. The campaign features a woman, Elizabeth Hendrix, that is in her mid to late 40s, somewhat overweight, with a soft yet firm voice—i.e., an Iowa woman. She speaks sincerely, telling us that her husband died of cancer a few years ago and she is now raising four boys on $28,000 a year. She goes on to say it makes sense to roll back tax cuts, but not to raise them on the middle class. You need to see this campaign to realize how effective it is (If you have Windows MediaPlayer, go here). For the bleeding hearts that populate the Democratic Party, this ad only makes them bleed more.

The ad is hitting Dean is a weak spot, and it makes Kerry seem very compassionate. The big question, of course, is will it be enough to salvage what has been a dismal campaign thus far?

WHY IS EDWARDS SURGING?

After months of dawdling in the single digits Senator John Edwards suddenly finds himself in second place in the Des Moines Register poll. Again, I think there are two factors at work here.

The first, much to my chagrin, is the Des Moines Register editorial page’s endorsement of Edwards. For those of you unfamiliar with the Register editorial page, think New York Times, only a lot dumber. (For more on this, take a look at the Rob and Rekha show.) Thus, the editorial page does have some influence over the Democrats in this state. The editorial itself was an exercise in vacuity best summarized as “Dean can’t beat Bush.” Fortunately for Edwards, most Democrats probably didn’t read the editorial, but only heard about it. This probably has compelled a lot of caucus-goers to go to an Edwards event.

That leads to the second reason: When the caucus-goers attend an Edwards’ event, they encounter what is easily the most charming of the candidates in the race. I saw him when he came through Mt. Pleasant (where I work) and Burlington (where I live) last Thursday. He gets up in front of a crowd and gets it energized in a very positive, upbeat way. After hearing him speak I thought, “He’s Senator Tony Robbins!” If Edwards wasn’t in politics, he could easily make a handsome living as a motivational speaker. On a side note, it’s no mystery how he made a fortune as a trial lawyer, given how persuasive he must have seemed to a jury. Anyway, for those Iowans looking for a more positive alternative to some of the other candidates, Edwards is a breath of fresh air.

The problem for Edwards, as Shawn Macomber recently put it, is he thinks it’s 1992. There may be too much negativity among Democrats this year for someone like Edwards to prevail.

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David Hogberg lives in Iowa and writes at Cornfield Commentary and is a contributor at The American Spectator. He will be providing an Iowa-based glimpse at the caucus for TCP.