The Command Post - Op-Ed

April 30, 2003

Canadian SARS

This just keeps getting better and better.

WHO lifted the Canadian travel ban based on there not being any new SARS cases in the last 20 days. Okey doaky. Let's go to the reported facts.

As of April 29, 2003, Health Canada has received reports of 346 probable or suspect cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Canada. There have been 21 deaths in Canada. To date, transmission has been limited to specific transmission settings such as households, hospitals and specific community settings. The information contained in this update is based on the information available to Health Canada at this time.
The details of the cases to date are as follows:

* Ontario is reporting 144 probable and 118 suspect cases.
* British Columbia is reporting 4 probable and 67 suspect cases.
* New Brunswick is reporting 2 suspect cases.
* Saskatchewan is reporting 1 suspect case.
* Alberta is reporting 6 suspect cases.
* Prince Edward Island is reporting 4 suspect cases.

Total # of probables discharged or at home: 87
Total # of suspects discharged or at home: 163

These numbers are accurate as of 1:00 pm. Eastern Daylight Saving Time, April 29, 2003. For specific information on the provincial numbers, please contact the appropriate provincial health department. LOOK HERE

As of April 28, 2003, Health Canada has received reports of 344 probable or suspect cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Canada. There have been 21 deaths in Canada. To date, transmission has been limited to specific transmission settings such as households, hospitals and specific community settings. The information contained in this update is based on the information available to Health Canada at this time.

The details of the cases to date are as follows:

* Ontario is reporting 142 probable and 122 suspect cases.
* British Columbia is reporting 4 probable and 63 suspect cases.
* New Brunswick is reporting 2 suspect cases.
* Saskatchewan is reporting 1 suspect case.
* Alberta is reporting 6 suspect cases.
* Prince Edward Island is reporting 4 suspect cases.

Total # of probables discharged: 75
Total # of probables recovering at home: 2
Total # of suspects discharged: 85
Total # of suspects recovering at home: 70 LOOK HERE

I make that a gain of 2 new cases 4/28-4/28, both in Ontario. The WHO says 4 in the same time frame, and is reporting two more in its latest report HERE.

So, my question is Who can Canadians trust for accurate information about SARS?

Based on the WHO data, the world wide death rate is 372/2842 or 13.1%
The Communist Chinese rate is 159/1491 or 10.7%
The Canadian death rate is 20/107 or 18.7%
The U.S. has 51 cases, no reported deaths, and did not make available the number of recoveries.

Comments

But we all went to the Blue Jays game and no one there had SARS!

Posted by: Andrew at April 30, 2003 04:06 PM

Chuck,

I agree with your death rate calculation: 13.1% and has been steadily climbing with no end in sight (linear, not flattening) since the "recovered" numbers were reported (April 10th), not what the press has been saying. Also the press has been saying that it's coming under control, but my trusty Excel workbook tells me otherwise, as many of the curves now have an exponentially upward twist to them, including cases, case rate and deaths. Mostly attributed to the now FOUR flavors of China listed, with a dash of Canada thrown in.

Also note that there are 11 new cases in USA in the last 24 hours. Statistically a couple of those won't make it.

My question is; what is the ultimate percentage of the world population that will be infected? 1% = 8 million dead. 10% = 82 million dead.

Posted by: MaxDarkside at April 30, 2003 05:35 PM

Why am I paying so close attention? I'm headed to Singapore/Malaysia tomorrow. Wish me luck! (TB-grade, N95 bra-cups in hand).

Posted by: MaxDarkside at April 30, 2003 05:37 PM

It's 11 new cases in the US in the last five days. The 41 case number dates from 4/25. We don't seem to be reporting to the WHO very well in the US.

Posted by: Chuck at April 30, 2003 05:42 PM

For CDC cases breakdown, go here:

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/sars.htm

Posted by: David at April 30, 2003 06:22 PM

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