Well, that was interesting -- looks like the ROK has made a mess of it.

I think it's a good time to redeploy our Tripwire troops well south of Pusan. And certainly the ROK shouldn't object -- according to them, North Korea isn't the enemy anymore.

May the starving masses of the north choke to death on the livers of thier southern bretheren. The insane north and the ungratefull insolent south, never have i seen two countries deserve each other more.

The sooner we get out of Korea the better. Now that the Soviet Union is gone, it's no longer an issue of fighting Communism. Let's let the Chinese, Japanese, and South Koreans deal with their neighbor. Let them foot the bill for military containment and nuclear blackmail.

Absolutely, it's time to get out of Korea. They don't want us, we don't need them. Perfect. Let's go.

Don't over-react on this one. SK is just exhibiting characteristics we usually view as healthy. Rival political parties trying to distinguish themselves from the party in power, a press with challenging opinions, young people willing to question the status quo. It's true that public opinion is being heavily manipulated by the press and politicians and there is a less than healthy element of the Korean "nationalism", but SK is a true democracy which provides freedom of speech and expression. And long term, their strongest ties are to the US. It wll all work out in the end.

I agree that it's probably unadvisable to overreact, but it should be pointed out that not only was the media heavily influencing public opinion, but the government was heavily influencing the media is ways some might find unhealthy for a democracy still trying to completely shake off its authoritarian past. Moreover, ethnic nationalism in Korea can be quite overwhelming at times (and with certain groups, it's downright fascistic), which is good for neither democracy nor rational policy making. Still, it's easy to overstate the problem; despite initial success in silencing news critical of North Korea, newspapers started ripping the Kim Dae-jung Administration again once his "Sunshine Policy" started stinking up the joint, and while the nationalism is still probably too high for Korea's own good, both the current crisis and USFK deployments have served to sober a great many up. I still think the Americans should pull out, but I'm not going to rip Koreans too much on this one (although I must confess to some satisfaction watching Noh Administration and his leftist friends squirm).

Pulling out of SK would be foolish at this point. We have a real problem with NK that isnt going away. They have the capability to produce nuclear weapons and materials in large quantities. They have shown the willingness to sell these to anyone that can pay. Until we somehow solve or manage this problem, our troops in SK are important bargaining chips in any negotiations. As the old saying goes, I do not do what my enemy wishes me to do for one simple reason, he wishes it.

I would like to think the 2nd ID is more than mere bargaining chips.

Oh be serious. The 2nd ID is nothing but a hostage at this point. It is stuck there and can not move, a sitting duck. Pulling it away from the border now, so it can not be hit by a bomb, increases the threat against NK, not diminsih it.

You will know when the Pentagon is getting serious with the North Koreans, because the 2nd ID will start pulling out/back. Then and only then will you know that the escalation is cranking up for real. You want to sober up Kim Jong? Pull out the 2nd ID, and announce that the mutual defense pact is still very much in effect. Welcome to reality Kim. Start a war with South Korea and we will nuke you. We can not get forces there to fight conventionally in a fast enough time anyway. Time to stop pussyfooting around. Pull the hostages out of South Korea and lets get serious. Until then you are all just blowing smoke.

The Korean War is over. South Korea gave up. Bring the troops home.

Pulling our troops out of South Korea doesn't begin to solve the problem. IF north korea produces plutonium, they could:

a) put a plutonium-based warhead on one of their long-range missiles (would you bet Hawaii and/or Alaska, at least, on their missile not working?)

b) give some plutonium to one or more terror groups who could make a bomb working with some disaffected Pakistani nuclear scientist, who in turn could put the bomb on a small boat, cruise up the East River, and blow it up. Or transfer the bomb from the little boat into a moving van, and blow it up in downtown Chicago.

Pulling the 2ID out doesn't begin to solve the problem, but then again, having them up along the DMZ doesn't do a whole lot to solve the problem either. The DPRK could smuggle a nuke into the US regardless of the American force structure in South Korea. In fact, it would seem to me that by keeping out forces well within North Korean artillery range, we [the US] actually limit our own options. In terms of a bargaining chip, I'm not sure how much the 2ID is worth, aside from being a possible face-saver for the North in case Pyongyang decides it has to cave - ala the missiles in Turkey during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The big issue here, in addition to the 2ID, is the 100,000 or so U.S. civilians, both military family dependents and Civil Service, which live north of the Han River in Seoul

In all likelihood, any attack on the South would trap most of them North of the river - the south has had those bridges mined since the '70s, at least.

The airport and the most obvious exits points out of the country are all south of the Han river.

This is no secret to the politicians and military planners; they've known about and resisted changing it for decades. The “tripwire” plan was developed in the days before the U.S. began allowing large numbers of military dependents in the country and a nuclear armed North never figured into the initial equations!

Those 150,000 Americans - military and civilians - are a "tripwire" of potentially horrific consequences. An invasion that causes the death or capture of tens of thousands American citizens would pretty much guarantee an immediate, and possible nuclear, response from the U.S.

Add to the unthinkable is the N. Korean military’s reputation of not taking either military or civilian prisoners and the stakes grow larger.

I believe it’s time to move the 2ID south – and possibly out – of S. Korea; even at the risk of Japan developing Nucs.

Finally, cynically, the last time I was in Korea – 1999, business trip – the main reason the S. Koreans wanted the U.S. out was so the - now prime - land occupied by the U.S. around Seoul could be commercially developed.

SO basically, public opinion in the South is that Kim II is a big cuddly teddy bear and the USA are the evil bastards keeping Korea from its destiny of re-unification. Oh yeah and by the way, we want you keep those troops along the DMZ, so we can keep living in Fantasy Land and keep blaming America.

The problem is that there is a growing divergence between the interests of South Korea and the United States. This is not just a matter of changes in public opinion. The USA's overwhelming interest in controlling the North Koreans is inspired by the need to keep NK nuclear weapons (or other wmds) out of the hands of America-hating suicide/homicide bombers. The South Koreans have very different priorities: keeping their economic miracle alive while controlling the loony uncle in the attic - neither a sudden, catastrophic fall of that regime, nor war. The death of an American city caused by wmds is less important to the South Koreans than their own survival, and the survival of American cities is more important to the United States than a high economic growth rate in South Korea.

The presence of US troops forces these two diverging interests to travel on the same track, and this is more and more impossible. Get the troops out, and America and South Korea will both be able to pursue more rational policies. Keep the troops there and both South Korea and the United States are tied together on the same track with different needs.

The South Koreans are more than able to militarily handle the North (their economy is some 40 times larger), and should be handling their own defence if they indeed want to provide a rational foundation for their nationalism.

The United States needs to make it clear to the North that regardless of any developments between North and South Korea, the United States will annihilate the North if NK wmds find their way to an American city. Other than that, they are free to work out their relations in any way they choose.

The South Korean government and large parts of the public seem to have no historical context by which to judge the North Koreans. You wouldn't know that it was SK that bore the brunt of the Korean War, and SK civilians who were murdered by the regime of Glorious Leader's daddy.

Steven Bradner wrote a long but very readable analysis of the "Kim Family Regime" in 2000.
http://www.wizard.net/~npec/papers/Bradner.htm
What he said sounds prescient three years later. Bottom line: the KFR should be seen as an organized crime family whose fiefdom happens to be a country. Their non-negotiable objective is the defeat the Republic of Korea to reunite the country under their control. Non-military means if possible, otherwise, a gamble on KWII when the time is right.

Wish it wasn't so, but.

It would be a stupid idea to remove troops at this point.
It might be strategic to pull them back from the DMZ.
To let N korea develop, and sell thier missle system is just plain stupid.
while I agree, that SOME little protest groups in S korea are annoying, stupid at best, the majority supports the USA.
On the otherhand, maybe it's time, and at the expense of many lives, to do nothing, and show protestors how wrong they can be.

maybe if N korea sent a nuke to the bay area, which is well within reach, these idiotic protestors would change their song, and protest as to why we never did anything.

That of course, is something I wouldn't want to see,
despite how silly they are, I don't want to see them killed.

The bush admin is doing things properly, I don't know if you all recall, but NK does not want to deal with the UN, just America, and if they attack American interests, then thats it. Blow NK away, no more pussy footing around as in Iraq.
That wil be the one day war, shortest in the worlds history.
After that, bring the boys home, we don't want them soaking up any radiation.

Kim, like OBL, lives in a fantasy world and is not to be reasoned with. If the Chinese are not able to convince him to forego the development of nuclear weapons, a one day war might indeed be the only course of action open to the US.

Bubba, it is not stupid to pull the troops back, it is the only play that will deter Kim. If you pull your troops out, but state clearly that the mutual defense pact is still just as strong as before, the world will then ask the question. If you are not abandoning South Korea then how will you help defend it?

The answer is simple. The world and Europe all live in a fantasy land. MAD does not apply to terror groups. Nations can build nukes and pass them off, and without ironclad proof the world will never ever accept that pre-emptive action is necessary. So you pull your troops out. You try your best diplomatically, and when all else fails, you call Kim on the phone and have a come to Jesus talk. If that fails you explain to the world that you can no longer accept the situation and that if a nuke goes off in an American city. We will be forced to assume that North Korea supplied it, with Chinese knowledge.

ZsaZsa (4:14am):

Alas, there is a lot of evidence that Kim Jong-Il and his cronies doesn't live in a fantasy world. The problem isn't with the Kim Family Regime's grip on reality, it's with their version of morality. See the Bradner paper I referenced (5/12, 6:39pm).

Not that I'm advertising dealing with evil people as an improvement over dealing with crazy people.

"I think it's a good time to redeploy our Tripwire troops well south of Pusan. And certainly the ROK shouldn't object -- according to them, North Korea isn't the enemy anymore."

I think it's an even better time to respectfully withdraw our troops from South Korea, entirely.

The South Koreans and their neighbors should be able to handle North Korea.

We need to pull those troops all the way out, not just further South.

They can do important stuff like killing terrorists.

And, as a benefit, we hasten Korean reunification. I say give maps of the minefields to both sides to speed cleanup.

Reunification may not be exactly what the South Koreans think it is. But no big loss to us. No more Kias or Hyundais, and Malaysian kids can make Nikes cheaper.

One of my first posts:

Just Say Roh

And then a Plan B

Doh - no linky linky:

Just Say Roh:

http://www.overpressure.com/archives/week_2002_12_29.html#000312

Plan B:

http://www.overpressure.com/archives/week_2003_01_05.html#000261