The Command Post - Global Recon

White House Appoints Special Envoy for N. Korea Human Rights

As expected, the White House has appointed Jay Lefkowitz as Special Envoy for Human Rights in North Korea, a position mandated by Section 107 of the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004. In naming Mr. Lefkowitz at this time, the administration appears to have waited for a “decent interval” between negotiating sessions with North Korea during six-nation talks. The Washington Post covered the story with an article written by Reuters, which benefits from actually taking the trouble to contact the people who were behind the NKHRA in the first place:

But U.S. officials said the appointment, announced by the White House, had been in the works for some time and was not aimed at putting pressure on the North Koreans ahead of the resumption of the nuclear talks.

“It’s taken this long to line everything up. I think people will read a little more into the timing than they should,” said one official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
. . . .

Suzanne Scholte, a leader of the North Korea Freedom Coalition, said her umbrella group of religious and rights activists had been eagerly waiting for the appointment. “This man I understand is close to President Bush, so that means he’ll have his ear on North Korean human rights, so we’re very excited about the appointment,” she said.

“It’s so critical that we let the North Korean people know that we know that they’re suffering,” said Scholte, whose coalition will stage protests and prayer meetings in Washington over the weekend to support human rights in North Korea.

Christopher Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator in the six-party talks, said this week that he had raised the issue of human rights during the recent session in Beijing. He described rights scrutiny as the “cost of admission” to international society.

My only quibble with the Reuters report is with the estimated death toll of 1 million. Although that number is not outside the range of reasonable estimates, most reasonable estimates of the death toll are twice that.

The New York Times also reported the story, noting that the timing and circumstances of the announcement suggests an effort by the White House to keep the appointment low-key. That seems plausible. If so, don’t expect to hear much from Jay Lefkowitz until after the next session of the six-party talks, scheduled to begin on August 29th. Even less encouraging is the fact that Lefkowitz will continue working his day job with the Washington law firm of Kirkland and Ellis, at least on a part-time basis. That could prove a considerable distraction from his duties as Special Envoy.

Here is the text of Section 107 of the NKHRA, which created the position of Special Envoy:

(a) Special Envoy.—The President shall appoint a special envoy for human rights in North Korea within the Department of State hereafter in this section referred to as the “Special Envoy”). The Special Envoy should be a person of recognized distinction in the field of human rights.

(6) develop an action plan for supporting implementation of the United Nations Commission on Human Rights Resolution 2004/13.

(d) Report on Activities.—Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, and annually for the subsequent 5 year-period, the Special Envoy shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report on the activities undertaken in the preceding 12 months under subsection ©.

Interview with North Korea Expert Nicholas Eberstadt, on the Talks and Aftermath

A transcript of my interview with Korea expert Nicholas Eberstadt is here. The primary focus is on diplomatic and other options available to the United States and its allies if the six-party talks turn out to be demonstrable failure.

My thanks to Mr. Eberstadt for being so generous with his time. I’ve posted a version without hyperlinks below. The version on my own blog has hyperlinks where relevant.

My deepest thanks to Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute for agreeing to a telephone interview. Eberstadt is one of Washington’s most highly regarded Korea experts. The interview ended up lasting a full hour. Nothing has been edited out save one abortive “I don’t know” answer, although may have I missed a few words because I’m no stenographer. Still, this is pretty close to a verbatim transcript. Nick Eberstadt is one of those rare individuals who speaks in complete sentences.

All comments in brackets and hyperlinks are my own. My questions focused on what may well be the terminal phase of the six-party talks, clarifying questions Eberstadt raised in his latest piece for The American Enterprise, and discussing the question that everyone’s assiduously avoided thus far: just exactly what are we to do if the talks demonstrably fail?

I let Mr. Eberstadt see some of the questions in advance (those not truncated by yahoo e-mail), and allowed him to see the completed transcript before publication. This was to afford him the chance to clarify any misquotes or errors, or to add clarifications. On the other hand, I did my best to ask him tough questions.

_______________

OFK: I have a wager going that North Korea will not even show up for the talks scheduled for August 29th, give or take a day. Care to join the pool? There’s a $20 house minimum.

NE: I always lose at bets, so I’ll decline. But the DPRK has a good reason to return if it chooses to do so. Its posture has already opened, still further, the wound in the ROK-US alliance. The ROK Foreign Minister declared last week that his government in principle had no problem with a peaceful nuclear program in North Korea. I suppose that program would proceed in tandem with [North Korea’s] peaceful chemical weapons program, and its peaceful biological weapons program. If I were a North Korean diplomat, I’d come back to the table just to see the U.S. and ROK diplomats eat each other alive over that difference. I can’t predict if the North Koreans will return, but if they do, they will have fun watching us squirm.

OFK: Say I lose. We all know you have a stock ticker in your office that tells you what the Administration is thinking. So just how patient is this Administration willing to be?

NE: [Laughs] I would have guessed that the Administration’s patience would have limits. Here’s my reasoning: a lot of the Administration’s patience since January, during the second Bush term, has revolved around trying to get the [American] North Korea diplomatic team all in place. The obvious missing piece through most of 2005 was the appointment of a U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. That appointment would be indispensable for any recommendation of sanctions to the U.N. Security Council. With the recess appointment of John Bolton, the entire U.S. roster is now in place. With the latest talks, I would have thought that the Administration is not only probing the North Koreans’ intentions, but laying the groundwork for alternatives—demonstrating that further talks would be fruitless, and pulling together allies and interlocutors for a further pressure campaign. But [implicitly denying the presence of the stock ticker] that would just be my guess.

OFK: You’ve suggested that we should declare the talks a failure now. But given the importance of making this someone else’s fault in the eyes of as many people as possible, what’s the harm in waiting another week or two, since this has become a charade anyway?

NE: I’m not privy to the U.S. government’s playbook on dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis. If the U.S. government’s playbook runs along lines you’ve just laid out, that seems entirely unobjectionable. The important point is that U.S. diplomats and policy-makers be under no illusions that failure can be turned to triumph by describing black as white such a sufficient number of times.

OFK: In your June piece for The American Enterprise, you urged the administration to define failure for the talks and be prepared to declare failure when we get there. So this is going to be a multi-parter. . . . First, help us with your definition of failure.

NE: I would define failure as a refusal by the DPRK government to agree to the objective of complete denuclearization, and/or refusal to engage in forthcoming and cooperative disclosure on the entire past history of the DPRK nuclear effort.

OFK: Ambassador Chris Hill has talked about North Korea having to make a fundamental decision about giving up its nuclear programs. Does that, or anything else, suggest that the Administration finally gets it?

NE: I don’t know Ambassador Hill well, I’ve only met him. People talk highly of his skills and acumen. That’s promising language. It’s necessary but not sufficient to show that people in U.S. government get the problem, but it doesn’t reveal his innermost thoughts about the U.S. government’s game plan.

OFK: How does Chung Dong-Young’s latest affect the odds of any success at the talks?

NE: It does affect the success. It affects the North Korean chance for success. He’s helped those out quite considerably. Almost every time he’s opened his mouth, he’s strengthened the North Korean position [pauses to think]. I can’t think of one exception off-hand.

OFK: How has the State Department’s outlook changed since Secretary Rice replaced Secretary Powell?

NE: This is a little bit of Kremlinology—looking at an organization from afar. My distant observer’s perception is that an untrusted team has been replaced by a trusted team, from the White House perspective. The Powell team was kept on a two-foot leash, mainly because of a lack of White House confidence, I would guess. We now have a transmission belt of Bush loyalists on North Korea policy. Secretary Rice, John Bolton, Robert Zoellick, and Ambassador Hill are all people who enjoy the trust of the White House, and the President personally. I surmise that a second-term Bush Administration diplomatic team will have more lee-way on making initiatives in [of?] consequence.

OFK: Did The Korea Times ever clarify its misstatements about your position on the alliance to your satisfaction?

NE: [Laughs] Oh, you read that, did you? Well, they published my letter, which was very gracious, and also I got a very gracious and sincere apology from the author. It was an honest mistake. I think that the author simply confused my position with that of one of the other authors from the June TAE issue.

OFK: You oppose a complete USFK withdrawal, but then, just what level of alliance do you think North Korea serves long-term US interests? What mix, for example, of air, naval, and ground assets should we be aiming for?

NE: That’s a very important, deep, and complicated question. I am in principle in favor of a long-term U.S.-ROK alliance, because I’m convinced it can serve interests of both nations and those of peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia. That said, both sides must be in favor of the underlying principles and objectives of the alliance. It is possible to imagine circumstances under which the alliance would no longer be viable. I think Northeast Asia would be a much more dangerous place if we get to that juncture. I hope we don’t get there, but the momentum right now is not favorable.

NE: That said, I’m not a military specialist, and I should emphasize that I’m a newspaper reader when it comes to military operations and requirements. My general impression is that we have an immediate task of deterring a North Korea threat. Over the long term, we have the challenge of maintaining peace in Northeast Asia. At the very least, that will require U.S. air and naval power in the region.

OFK: Chris Nelson [author of the now-infamous Nelson Report] said that in addition to being funny and well-liked, you’re “rigid, didactic, and unwilling to admit that [your] frequent predictions about very specific actions or motives of Kim Jong-il turn out to be totally wrong.” Several questions based on this. First, has anyone spotted Chris Nelson recently? Second, what does “didactic” mean? Care to touch anything else in there?

[A slightly longer-than-expected pause preceded the awkward laughter I was anticipating]

NE: I don’t believe I’ve ever actually met Chris Nelson. “Didactic” means pedantic [OFK: well, that was no help, but click here and here] and schoolmasterish [oh].

NE: As for the rest of what he says, it’s certainly true that North Korea has not collapsed. I would have been one of the people laying odds on North Korea not being here today. There are reasons North Korea has managed to survive that I could not have even fantasized about ten years ago, such as the international rescue program that happened under Sunshine. I’d also note that I was one of the few people in the U.S. who argued that Roh Moo Hyun was electable, and that Sunshine was driving at the heart of the U.S.-ROK alliance. I haven’t heard many people disputing those arguments lately.

OFK: I want to move to the “what next” question, in the event the six-nation talks fail. In your latest piece, you said, “Washington should impose real-time penalties on Pyongyang.” Can you elaborate on what you mean here?

NE: What we have to begin to do is penalize North Korea economically. The United States can increase North Korea’s economic penalties more or less unilaterially thru the Proliferation Security Initiative—working, of course, with those nations that have joined the PSI, and leading that coalition. We should be doing that anyhow. That’s just police work.

NE: We should also insist on a more humanitarian food aid program, which is to say a more intrusive and accountable food program, versus the one the World Food Program and others are kicking in for now. The current program feeds the North Korea government better than it feeds North Korea people. We should change that immediately.

NE: One other issue here is the need to confer more effectively with our European allies on international aid flows to the DPRK. Europe professes great concern for human rights in principle. North Korea is the worst human rights disaster on earth.

NE: The most important and difficult areas in aid flow are with South Korea and China. The U.S. needs to be much more effective in making its case to the South Korean public that aiding the North Korean state means endangering the South Korean state. The South Korean government is almost unconditionally supporting North Korea through its aid programs. That unconditional aid does not reflect the actual state of public opinion in South Korea; in fact, the South Korean public is deeply divided on the question of unconditional aid to the North. Making the case against unconditional aid to the North in various venues would be very helpful changing South Korean policies in this regard.

NE: China is another source of unconditional aid to the North. As long as Seoul is completely off the reservation on supporting North Korea through aid, China has much less reason to make hard choices on North Korea. The road to a stricter Chinese aid policy leads through Seoul. If we can convince South Korea to have a more rational, less emotional and ideological policy about aid to North Korea, we are more likely to succeed with China as well.

OFK: Did you see the story in this morning’s Chosun Ilbo on the survey of Korean youth?

NE: Yes.

OFK: What’s your reaction to that?

NE: Depending on how you phrase a question, you can get really imbalanced responses in one direction or other, particularly in South Korean polls. I think this is one of those cases, where the results have been exaggerated by the way the question was posed. That said, the point that many people in South Korea now look at the U.S. as a security problem and North Korea as a partner cannot be denied, and that’s a big problem for the alliance.

OFK: In your last piece in TAE, you said that “[t]he country [North Korea] is highly vulnerable to economic pressure . . . .” Others would argue that a country as poor as North Korea is actually less vulnerable to economic pressure.

NE: I think that is empirically incorrect. I think it was last fall, I published an article called “The Persistence of North Korea.” What I tried to show in that study is that North Korea’s unidentified foreign sources of funding had increased very substantially since 1998, since the Sunshine era commenced. In the mid-1990s, the DPRK was in famine, the regime was describing its situation as an “arduous march.” That period ended precisely when this upswing in foreign funding commenced. North Korean economy is a bizarre, distorted, jack-assed contraption. I agree that if you study history, coercive economic diplomacy seldom achieves its objectives. But North Korea is so economically vulnerable that North Korea is an unusually promising candidate for economic pressure.

OFK: Why would China help us in the U.N.?

NE: We can’t know until we try, but my hunch is that Chinese leadership, in the final analysis, will have to be rational about its own interests in Northeast Asia, and an aggressive nuclear North Korea is even more subversive of Beijing’s interests than a pressure campaign against the DPRK that may involve Chinese risks.

NE: The reason I say this is that China’s exposure to North Korean brinksmanship entails the possibility of very real costs in China’s strategic situation and China’s domestic stability. If the DPRK emerges as an aggressive nuclear power, the nuclear disposition of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan cannot be presumed to remain constant. Our ambassador in Japan has made this point. An aggressive nuclear North Korea will also invite responses in missile defense in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. None of these results is in china’s interest.

NE: I also mention that there’s a domestic concern for China. An aggressive nuclear North Korea could cause a business crisis in Northeast Asia—I don’t think it’s difficult to imagine how—leading to a downturn in trade, investment, and economic growth in region. It would only take a matter of months for this to lead to higher urban unemployment rates in china. If I read the newspapers correctly, China’s leaders are very concerned about stability these days. Rising unemployment is not the way to improve stability and reduce social tensions.

NE: The U.S. government can encourage the Chinese leadership to think about its own interests in North Korea more clearly. If we encourage the Chinese leadership to think about its own interests in North Korea more clearly, we will find that our interests overlap is larger than we’ve thought to date.

OFK: Do you think the United States is seriously considering a blockade?

NE: I think there are circumstances under which US would have to consider a blockade. We’re not there yet, and I hope we never get there. The idea that military action is inconceivable is wrong. It would be an awful set of circumstances that would bring us to that point, but we would have to consider it.

OFK: [Korea expert] Balbina Hwang recently cited estimates that North Korea’s overseas deposits are “as high as” $5 billion [in this August 2003 piece]. Do you expect the United States to try to freeze those assets?

NE: I don’t know if that estimate is correct or not. Of course, it would be a smart and a good thing to search for and identify overseas DPRK assets. I wonder, though, whether DPRK assets are as large as some analysts have guessed. North Korea was in such a delicate economic situation in mid-90s that it would seem puzzling for the regime not to have used some of those “rainy-day” funds to relieve possible tensions that arose from that situation.

OFK: In The End of North Korea, [published in 2000] you made the point that North Korean trade with the U.S. would not likely expand much, for reasons that are internal to North Korean policy. The mirror image of this is that re-imposing sanctions would not do much, either. And of course, but for the lack of MFN trade status and sanctions on dual-use components, we really don’t have many sanctions on North Korea today.

NE: That’s right, but the real impact of our economic policy is often overlooked. It’s not the trade sanctions per se. The real financial bite from the U.S. sanctions is that the U.S. is obligated vote against North Korean membership in the International Monetary fund, which prevents it from getting access to international loans or grants. But North Korea is perfectly capable of failing as international exporter without our help.

OFK: Recently, you’ve been much more outspoken about humanitarian issues in relation to North Korea. I want to address the intersection of the humanitarian and economic issues, specifically the famine. Some NGOs have discussed the link between hunger and songbun, which is a measure of political classification and oppression. Some have raised comparisons to Stalin’s selective mass starvation in the Ukraine in the 1930s—I’ve raised them myself. Do you think that there’s evidence to support such a comparison?

NE: Well, the evidence comes from the escapees, who’ve described the starvation in North Korea in the 1990s.

OFK: Do you think that this starvation was deliberate, at least to some extent?

NE: There’s very little arguing that the regime made decisions about who should get food, and who should not. The suspect or disfavored strata were certainly not preferentially treated in allocation of food through the Public Distribution System. Since death toll and suffering from the famine in some measure seems regionally specific, it’s clear that the regime made some choices. I don’t think this was so much a pan opticon decree that some elements should be sentenced to death. I suspect it was more like the process that the Nazis called selektion [selecting who would live and who wouldn’t]. Another way to put it is that being in a disfavored status near Pyongyang, or being in a favored status, was better than being in a disfavored status near the Russian border.

OFK: Assume China and South Korea block our every efforts to relieve the human rights and famine problems in the North. What could America do to make a tangible difference in either situation?

NE: As things stand now, both South Korea and China are disposed to ignore the humanitarian disaster in North Korea. That’s why need to have a diplomatic strategy for dealing with human rights. The [Chinese and South Korean policies] are not fixed or immutable positions. The road to changing South Korea’s regrettable policy for dealing with human rights leads through Europe. The South Korean government, so heavily composed of former human rights activists, can be shamed into a more humane policy toward refugees from the DPRK.

NE: The way to shame the South Korean government is to form an international coalition to persuade people worldwide that the current situation cannot be tolerated. To do so will involve a lot of spadework with governments and NGOs in Europe, especially among the new, formerly communist, democracies. I don’t think South Korea wants to try to make the case that North Korea should be an exception to worldwide human rights principles. Obviously, we have plenty of work to do in developing that coalition, but it’s there for the building. If such a coalition were developed, there are so many promising reasons to expect that groups and people in South Korea will support a more humanitarian policy toward North Korea refugees, and that we can expect a change from the see-no-evil Sunshine approach toward North Korea.

NE: Just as the road to South Korea leads through Europe, the road to China leads through South Korea. Without the cover that South Korea’s current position provides, China will be exposed to more important choices. That importance rises as we approach 2008. China is not isolated from the calculus of costs and benefits [here, Eberstadt stopped for a pregnant consideration of his choice of words]. China wants the Beijing Olympics to be success, not an embarrassing failure.

OFK: You’re an advocate of assisting North Korean refugees, but some of those who opposed the North Korean Human Rights Act or confrontation with North Korea over human rights have accused the United States of hypocrisy in offering asylum to North Korean refugees. After all, not one North Korean refugee has been given asylum in the USA, and the NKHRA did not include a provision for Temporary Protected Status. Are we all a bunch of hypocrites for offering something we appear to have been unprepared to actually give?

NE: The confusion about accepting North Korea refugees into the United States is the tiniest corner of our INS mess. I don’t think that anyone who is familiar with it thinks our INS works like a normal and healthy operation. There is an even bigger problem than what we see through this small aperture: a badly broken INS.

OFK: But those few North Koreans who arrived in the United States had already taken first refuge elsewhere, meaning that they were ineligible for asylum anyway.

NE: The U.S. gesture of offering asylum to North Korean refugees follows a tradition of 200 years of acting on the principles later recorded in the language on the placard on the Statue of Liberty. We have to be very clear that the South Korean Constitution recognizes North Koreans as South Korean citizens if they so much as raise hands and say, “Take us home.” Given how much emphasis today’s South Korea places on constitutional rights and the rule of law, we should encourage the government to take another look at Article III.

OFK: I noticed that North Korea’s negotiating posture seemed to become temporarily more flexible after Kang Chol-Hwan’s visit. That flexibility didn’t last, of course, but do you think North Korea takes the threat of US support for a political alternative to the regime seriously?

NE: The North Korea government will take the threat of U.S. support for an alternative DPRK more seriously in proportion to the extent that the U.S. government itself takes that proposition seriously. The DPRK leadership is purportedly isolated and removed from events, but they don’t do a bad job of reading the papers. They may even surf the Internet from time to time. North Korea is capable of doing those calculations on its own.

OFK: Now for a wacky question. There is exactly one way I can think of to seriously challenge the North Korean regime’s hold on power without Chinese or South Korean cooperation: to support an anti-government resistance movement inside North Korea, supplying it clandestinely, perhaps from off the coast. In your wildest dreams, can you envision the United States providing clandestine support for an anti-Kim Jong-Il resistance movement?

NE: It certainly shouldn’t be ruled out. My impression as a newspaper reader is that the history of covert operations in North Korea over the last half century is not one of ringing successes. That said, all options should remain on the table when dealing with a government opposed to basic principles of international peace and cooperation.

OFK: Mr. Eberstadt, thank you for being so considerate of your time.

NE: Thank you. I enjoy your Web site very much.

[End of interview]

________________

One final point I’d add, in addition to thanking Mr. Eberstadt for the kind plug for my site—he’s such a mensch that he never even mentioned his new book. So I just did.

N. Korea Executes Christians for Their Beliefs

From the Joongang Ilbo, a major South Korea daily, comes a new report of a ruthless new wave of religious persecution:

Citing interviews with North Korean defectors, a Seoul-based research institute said yesterday that the regime in Pyongyang is continuing an aggressive campaign to suppress underground churches in the country.

The 2005 North Korea Human Rights White Paper published by the Korea Institute of National Unification reported a number of executions of religious figures operating underground Protestant churches in the North. In 2001, five people found guilty of conducting missionary work were executed by firing squad in Nampo.

North Korean defectors are quoted in the report as saying that Pyongyang is doing everything it can to stop the spread of Protestantism in the communist country. According to the report, 86 members of underground churches were rounded up in the early 1990s in Anak, South Hanghae province, some of whom were executed while the rest were sent to political prisons.

A North Korean defector said he had once participated in a three-year long operation to uproot an underground church in 1996. Since 1997, North Korea has been instructing its people to report any kind of proselytizing to the authorities.

Second North Korean Family Defects by Sea in a Week

ABC News reports that an entire family has sailed to South Korea. It’s the second sea-borne defection in a week, and doesn’t include last week’s defection by a North Korean soldier through the wire at the DMZ:

A couple and their nine-year-old son defected from famine-hit North Korea by boat on Sunday and were being questioned on South Korea’s western island of Baekryong, the military said.

The South Korean navy picked up the 42-year-old man, identified as Hong, his 39-year-old wife and their son after they crossed the border in the Yellow Sea, officials at the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff office said.

The last couple to defect (just a week ago) arrived at the same island. The Chosun Ilbo tells us more about the family and its origin:

They were said to have left Gumipo in North Korea’s Hwanghae Province at dawn. They were quoted as saying they fled the harsh living conditions in the North.

The Hong family is the second to defect by sea this month after a couple defected to the South in a dinghy on June 17.

Careful observers will note that Hwanghae is North Korea’s main rice-growing region. If famine has spread to Hwanghae, the North is in serious trouble indeed. Yonhap adds some ominous details about how the Southern authorities are handling the matter:

The North Koreans said they left the North on Saturday due to poverty. An investigation was under way to determine their exact motive for defecting.

Why ominous, you ask? Because the South Koreans have told us what that investigation might entail.

Also last week, a North Korean soldier was found hiding in a truckload of Moon Pies and ramen noodles in a South Korean border village. Somewhere in there is something deeply symbolic. However he got through, South Korean soldiers detected no one found a trace of his passage:

Another defector, identified as Lee Yong-su, 20, was discovered in Daema village, Gangwon province 5:50 a.m. yesterday by a local resident. Mr. Lee was wearing a tattered North Korean military uniform and a Kim Il Sung badge.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff investigating Mr. Lee, the defector said he was a soldier in an artillery battalion of the North Korean army in Pyeonggang county. He told the investigators that he made the decision after watching on television how developed South Korea was. Mr. Lee claimed he reached the fences in the DMZ early Monday morning and crossed over the next day.

Freedom House to Broadcast July Human Rights Conference Into North Korea

Recently, Freedom House selected Professor Jae Ku as its North Korea Program Director. I met Professor Ku at a meeting of the North Korean Freedom Coalition in Arlington, Virginia, and he agreed to an interview.

Thanks to Prof. Ku for being so generous with his time (continue to interview).

A Great Leap Downward? North Korea Orders Millions of City Dwellers Into the Countryside

The New York Times is reporting more troubling signs that famine may be returning to North Korea:

Even if this is strictly temporary, it must be deeply disruptive to the North Korean economy. These city-dwellers must be wondering why they are being sent to the fields in higher numbers than ever. The Chosun Ilbo’s coverage suggests that for some, this may be something more than a temporary movement.

Pyongyang is traditionally reserved for North Korea’s “core” class. One wonders how many will be disallowed from returning. Stay tuned.

U.S. Meets With North Korea One On One

The Associated Press reports that U.S. officials met with North Korean officials in New York last week to discuss American policy toward the Stalinist state.

From California Yankee.

N. Korea Able To Arm Missile With Nuke

The Associated Press reports the Defense Intelligence Agency chief says North Korea is able to arm a missile with a nuclear weapon.

From California Yankee.

U.S. Considers Blockade Resolution as N. Korea Prepares for Possible Nuclear Test

Today’s New York Times reports two major new developments in the North Korea story. The Administration’s long-lived patience with North Korea may finally be at an end as it contemplates asking the U.N. for a resolution that would authorize any nation to stop North Korean ship and planes to search for nuclear material. Meanwhile, North Korea may be preparing to test a nuclear weapon. First, the general terms of the conceptual resolution:

The resolution envisioned by a growing number of senior administration officials would amount to a quarantine of North Korea, though, so far at least, President Bush’s aides are not using that word. It would enable the United States and other nations to intercept shipments in international waters off the Korean Peninsula and to force down aircraft for inspection.

But, said several American and Asian officials, the main purpose would be to give China political cover to police its long border with North Korea, the impoverished country’s lifeline for food and oil. That border is now largely open for shipments of arms, drugs and counterfeit currencies, North Korea’s main source of hard currency.

Previous leaks from the Bush Administration have suggested an emerging strategy of isolating North Korea economically to deprive its rulers of the hard currency they need to sustain their regime.

In late January, the Administration concluded that North Korea sold enriched uranium to the A.Q Khan network, and ultimately to Libya. In early February, North Korea recently walked out of nuclear disarmament talks and declared itself a nuclear power. Later that month, the North threatened to attack U.S. installations in South Korea. Most recently, North Korea shut down its plutonium reactor at Yongbyong, a prerequisite to removing fuel rods it could then reprocess into weapons-grade material. Neither China nor South Korea has been willing to force North Korea to choose between the aid and trade benefits they both provide and returning to the talks in earnest.

Activity at the site in October and again in January led to concerns that North Korea may be preparing for the first underground weapons test - which would end any ambiguity about whether it has the technology to build a warhead.

“They are either heading toward a full nuclear breakout, so that we are forced to deal with them as an established nuclear power, or they are putting on quite a show for our satellites,” said one senior administration official, who added that the quarantine option had not yet been formally presented to President Bush.

The White House has said little so far about North Korea’s actions, following a strategy very different from the one it pursued two years ago with Iraq. Ms. Rice has repeatedly said that North Korea’s pattern is to seek a public reaction from Washington, and she has made clear she does not intend to oblige.

But some experts say the statements and actions North Korea have taken recently could mark a significant shift in strategy: It may now see a chance to build a modest nuclear arsenal while the United States and Asian nations debate how to react. The C.I.A. estimates that North Korea already has enough plutonium for six or eight nuclear weapons.

“I’m afraid they are now more interested in getting away with it than getting a reaction out of the United States,” South Korea’s former foreign minister, Han Sung Joo, said in an interview last week.

In February 2004, the New York Times reported that North Korea may have tested a nuclear weapon in Pakistan in 1998, as part of its cooperation with the A.Q. Khan network. Although the exposure of the Khan network would make continued Pakistani cooperation with North Korea prohibitively risky, Time Asia has reported that North Korea also cooperates extensively with Iran in its nuclear weapons development.

HT: The Lost Nomad

North Korea Preparing Nuclear Arms Test

The Washington Times reports that U.S. intelligence agencies have detected activity at facilities in North Korea indicating the country may be preparing to conduct its first nuclear test.

From California Yankee.

Mystery Ship Crosses into N. Korea; S. Korean Navy Fires Warning Shots

UPDATE: Looks like I was wrong. It appears to be the act of a lone drunk who opted for the Workers’ Paradise. That’s going to be some hangover.

ORIGINAL POST: The Chosun Ilbo calls it a defection, but without knowing more than what’s in the article, I’d say a more likely theory is that some North Korean infiltrators were on their way home.

South Korean coastal border guards fired some 20 warning shots from a 60 mm mortar, 106 mm recoilless rifle and MG50 machine gun, but were unable to stop the ship crossing the NLL.

It’s strictly my own speculation at this point, and a definitive explanation may not be forthcoming, but I’ll be the first to admit it if I’m wrong. This piece by Andrei Lankov is must-read background material (the man’s timing is pretty extraordinary, no?). Not that the current South Korean regime would eagerly admit such a possibility.

Whose hostile policy, Minister Chung?

UPDATE: CNN reports that the vessel appears to have been a South Korean fishing boat.

North Korea to Expel U.N. Aid Workers

The Washington Times reports that North Korea has announced that it will expel U.N. aid workers, claiming that their help is no longer needed:

The announcement follows reports of a North Korean crackdown on defections, suspected dissenters, and foreign cell phones and videotapes, which are increasingly penetrating North Korea’s closed society. Yesterday, a Japanese TV network aired video of the public executions of eleven North Koreans for opposing the regime and aiding defectors. North Korea may perceive foreign aid workers as a threat to the wall of secrecy and isolation the regime has built between its citizens and the outside world.

Sources familiar with the issue said the number of international staffers present in the country, including nongovernmental aid groups, has worried Pyongyang for some time. “There’s no need for [OCHA] to stay … once ongoing projects are finished,” a North Korean diplomatic source said on the condition of anonymity. “We need assistance, but not humanitarian. It should be development assistance such as machinery for agriculture,” the source said. Mr. Egeland said he was still hopeful he could persuade Pyongyang not to close the OCHA office. “In our view the humanitarian crisis is continuing. Still [there’s] a great shortage of food and there’s a great shortage of medicines,” he said.

The World Food Program reports that 36% of North Koreans are undernourished, that 57% do not get enough to keep them healthy, and currently targets 6.5 million North Koreans (out of a total population of 22.4 million) for food aid. North Korea recently reduced its food rations to 250 grams per person per day, the equivalent of two medium-sized potatoes.

North Korea Publicly Executes Eleven in Hoeryong

Daily NK, a news site run by North Korean defectors, has posted a story and images captured from a video that, according to a Japanese TV network, shows political prisoners being brought before a firing squad. The video was taken in Hoeryong, which is emerging as a focal point of resistance. The pictures are very blurry and the usual cautions about authenticity apply, but Daily NK quotes defectors as confirming the location and suggesting that the tape is authentic. The video allegedly shows the “trials,” judgement, and of course, execution. The entire town was ordered to go to the scene and watch—including the children.

Usually in North Korea, when public executions take place, the criminals are tied to a pillar and executors stand 10-15 m in front of him for a total of nine rounds of gun shot, three shots each to head, chest, and abdomen. When the criminal is shot, the rope breaks and the dead body falls forward. All of such scenes are contained in this video. Currently, North Korea is known to be the only country where public executions take place, with the public informed (and attends to), including children. Until now, North Korea has bluntly denied such public executions of shooting takes places in the country, which the accusations made by the international human rights organizations who reported and condemned of it.

Senior U.S. Diplomat Hints at 'Further Measures' Against North Korea

U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Christopher Hill, in a hearing for his confirmation to the post of Assistant Secretary of State for Asian and Pacific Affairs, has given the most explicit signal yet that the Bush Administration will not tolerate the continued lack of progress in the six-party talks. Reuters reports:

Hill did not suggest that the United States intended to use force, hinting instead at a policy of economic isolation of the regime. Hill also stressed the Administration’s preference for a diplomatic solution. He went on to suggest that “any country doing any business” with North Korea should consider whether its activities encourage North Korea’s “bad behavior.” Hill singled out Russia by name, but his comments also appeared to have been aimed at China and South Korea, which is developing a massive low-wage industrial park in North Korea:

“I would like to look very carefully to see what more Russia could do . . . I think with respect to Russia, with respect to any country doing any business with North Korea, . . . we need to look very carefully at what they are doing . . . with a view to determining, are they somehow encouraging bad behavior from the North Koreans or are they encouraging North Korea to come back to the table.”

Hill criticized China for failing to exert sufficient pressure on North Korea to force it to return to the talks, saying, “It’s our view that China as the host of this process should make sure they get everybody to the table.” Ambassador-designate to South Korea Joseph DeTrani, currently the U.S. special envoy to the six-country talks, pointedly mentioned that China supplies 60 percent of North Korea’s energy and 60 percent of its food.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to recommend that the full Senate confirm both Hill and De Trani.

Japan, formerly a major trading partner of North Korea, imposed new shipping insurance requirements on March 1st. The new regulations, not formally styled as sanctions, have effectively blocked most trade with North Korea by imposing a financial requirement that few North Korean ships can afford.

Bush to Name Bolton as U.N. Ambassador

The Washington Post reports that President Bush will name John Bolton as the new American Ambassador to the United Nations, signaling that the administration maybe be ready to make an international issue of human rights in North Korea, which allowed as many as two million of its people to starve to death while the regime squandered its coffers on arms and luxuries for its elite. The move also suggests that the administration may be ready to bring North Korea’s nuclear weapons program before the U.N. Security Council.

North Korea recently withdrew from six-nation talks over its weapons programs. Recently, it has suggested that it may return to the talks in exchange for further concessions and aid from the United States.

North Korea once famously called Bolton “human scum” over his comments about the state of human rights in North Korea. Bolton promises to be the most ideologically straightforward and hawkish ambassador since Jeanne Kirkpatrick.

N. Korea Wants an Apology

AP:

North Korea demanded that the United States apologize for designating the country as an “outpost of tyranny” and it threatened to resume long-range missile tests. However, the North also held out the possibility of returning to nuclear disarmament talks if Washington agrees to coexist with the communist country.

North Korea declared Feb. 10 that it had nuclear weapons and was boycotting talks aimed at ending its nuclear ambitions.

North Korea 'U-turn' on US talks

The BBC reports:

A North Korean official has said his government no longer wants even bilateral talks with the United States over its nuclear weapons programme. Pyongyang had been demanding direct negotiations with the US for two years. Earlier this month, North Korea confirmed it had nuclear weapons and withdrew from discussions with its neighbours and the US.

North Korean Elites Celebrate Kim Jong-Il's Birthday by Feasting on Pheasant and Venison

MSNBC News reports on Kim Jong-Ils’ birthday celebrations from North Korea:

Those not among North Korea’s elite classes were reportedly given cold noodles and extra rations of alcohol. North Korea recently reduced rations for its starving population to 250 grams per person per day—the equivalent of two medium-sized potatoes—which is just half of the amount the World Food Program recommends as a minimum for subsistence.

Press reports did not mention any public appearance by Kim Jong-Il himself. A recent report published in the Times of London noted growing speculation that Kim may have lost a behind-the-scenes struggle for power. Last November, Kim’s portraits, which had previously been treated like sacred icons, began disappearing from official venues. Mr. Kim has since failed to meet either of two congressional delegations that visted North Korea in January. More recently, North Korean radio has begun discussing the succession to power to one of Mr. Kim’s sons. Kim Jong-Il is the son of Kim Il-Sung, founder of North Korea’s Stalinist government.

Mr. Kim was last seen by a foreigner on October 3, 2004. Other appearances mainly consisted of inspections of military units, sometimes accompanied by stock footage showing Mr. Kim surrounded by loyal and adoring soldiers. The Times reporters noted that in Mr. Kim’s recent appearances, his clothing appeared to be the same as that he had worn in previous appearances.

U.S. Plans Financial Squeeze of North Korea

Legal Non-Military Trade, $600 Million per year
Weapons, $560 Million
Illegal Drug Trafficking, $100 Million
Counterfeiting, $100 Million
Overseas Remittances, $100 Million

N. Korea Admits to Nukes, Backs Out of Talks

Fox News reports:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea (search) publicly admitted Thursday for the first time that it has nuclear weapons, and said it wouldn’t return to six-nation talks aimed at getting it to abandon its nuclear ambitions…

Letter, Purportedly from High-Level Dissenter, Attacks N. Korean Regime

That’s the claim about the letter I print below, via Suzanne Scholte (scroll down) of the Defense Forum Foundation, America’s most prominent campaigner for North Korean human rights. It requires no explanation, only the obvious caveats that (1) there’s simply no way to verify the source, (2) this could very easily be something other than what it purports to be, and (3) the contents of the letter clearly serve the interests of those (like me, as a matter of full disclosure) who seek to destroy the North Korean one-party regime through increased economic pressure and political subversion.

If authentic, the letter raises one more barrier to the economic and social reunification of the Koreas—North Koreans’ well-justified resentment that South Koreans are helping to prolong their suffering and enslavement.

We were able to obtain a copy of the original hand written letter that was sent by fax by a high ranking North Korean government official when he was visiting China to South Korea’s largest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo.

As the rest of the world is well-aware, 3 million people starved to death and 1.2 million were left wandering about the country during so called, “the Stride in Suffering,” between 1995 and 1998. As a result, North Koreans have turned away from Kim Jung Il, and no one has even the slightest lingering attachment left for him. The only thing remaining is a deep root of hatred toward him.

Although I cannot disclose the details, I can assure you that a large number of anti-governmental forces exist within North Korea. A growing number of the elites are lying low waiting for the right time to come so that they can punish Kim Jung Il, the traitor of the Korean people. Others who share their views are also coming together for the same goal.

In 1990, we had an excellent opportunity to overthrow Kim Jung Il when “the Stride in Suffering” began. Kim Jung Il was using extreme measures to suppress the citizens in order to sustain his control over the country causing utter confusion. He used the military to recklessly kill the innocent and put them in political prisoner camps. It is true in any history that the louder the citizens complain, the stronger the rebellious sprit grows. During “the Stride in Suffering” North Korea was in such chaos that every aspect of the country, including the politics, economy, and national security, broke down beyond a manageable realm, and many North Koreans left the country for China.

What we really wanted during this time was that more North Koreans would leave for China so that that the international community would really pin down Kim Jung Il. If so, I believe even the cruelest Kim Jung Il would not have been able to withstand the pressure.

However, South Korea and the international community supported North Korea, and the severe suffering started again for the anti-governmental forces in North Korea. North Korean defectors in China were repatriated and lost their lives in prisons or at open executions. It makes my blood boil to think about all the North Korean defectors who were dragged back to North Korea and had to face such miserable deaths. To make the situation worse, South Korea began its mission to save Kim Jung Il as if they were indebted to him.

I have enough information to describe in detail about how the U.S. dollars and humanitarian relief goods were distributed, but I do not feel the need to do so. However, I would like to reemphasize the obvious fact that Kim Jung Il’s government has no interest in the welfare of its citizens whatsoever. Kim Jung Il wasted away the relief aids from other countries for the purpose of maintaining his power and never used it for our citizens.

It appears that there is a movement within South Korea that attempts to beautify Kim Jung Il suggesting that he has made some positive changes. This is why I need to explain what happened in North Korea after “the Stride in Suffering.”

The Economy Management Reform directives which came out in July, 2002 did nothing but to transfer the responsibilities of the government to the individuals. The actual market prices replaced the government distribution system which was useless and existed in name only. Businesses need a certain amount of freedom of discretion, which is not allowed in North Korea, and that is why there is no such thing as private business in North Korea. Some people manage to obtain the government’s permission to do business at public facilities and earn between 1 won and 3 won ($15 ~ $45) a month. The majority of the workers who cannot afford the bribery money to obtain the permission have no other choice but to continue to work under strict government control without being paid properly.

Recently South Korean soap operas became popular in North Korea, and this triggered the house-searching frenzy by the government and tighter control measures on commuting routes.
There were some raised expectations that private farms might be allowed, but it has fallen through. Another rumor suggested that the Agricultural Cooperative Association will distribute the land to institutions and businesses, but nothing has been done so far. Individuals are allowed to farm small tracks of land up to 300 pyung (1 pyung = about 4 square yards). These tracks are prepared by the individuals through forest clearing. Any piece of land that is larger than 300 pyung is controlled by the government.

Despite the government’s restrictions, there are those who fight for more land in desperation. They manage to farm on lands as large as few thousand pyungs, but after paying the taxes for using the land there is hardly anything left, and the bitterness is growing fast amongst the farmers. Nonetheless, people who are able to farm any type of land are better off than others since they can at least gather something to eat.

After giving up their crops for the mandatory contribution to the military and government officers, there is nothing left for the farmers. They are often forced to seek other means for survival, and end up stealing from their neighbors. Everyone has turned into a thief, and they steal from one another.

Every fall, the farmers in North Korea are left only with empty ears of corn. I heard the harvest in Hwang Hae province is better this year, but there is also a report that the mandatory contributions to the military will increase. The farmers are already furious about this.

The situation is not better for the military. The lack of food in North Korea is so serious that even the military is suffering. People call the military “pest forces,” the gangsters,” “thieves’ military” and “punitive forces” (this word originated from the Japanese punitive forces that oppressed Koreans during the Japanese occupation). They also call it “malnutrition forces” because of the widespread severe malnutrition in the military. Soldiers attack private homes and assault civilians every day. The public resentment toward the military is stronger than ever. Moreover, the morale within the military is on the brink of a collapse.

As a hopelessly corrupted country, North Korea is accelerating toward its final destruction. Kim Jung Il’s cruelty has worsened in desperation to preserve his power. Torture and executions became more and more common. He strengthened the punishment for those who flee the country, but he is careful about the public because of the pressure from the international community.

High-ranking officials in North Korea are well aware of what is going on in South Korea since North Koreans’ interest in information from the outside world has grown dramatically. These days, not only the high-ranking officers but also the mid-ranking officials and young people in North Korea listen to Radio Free Asia and gain information. We know who is helping Kim Jung Il and who is working hard for the freedom and human rights of North Koreans.

I hope to see more North Koreans cross the border to China in protest against Kim Jung Il, but sadly they have known for a while that China and South Korea are indifferent about rescuing them, giving them the cold shoulder. North Koreans are trapped within their own country waiting to die either by starvation or torture.

The anti-government forces and the North Korean officers who share the same goal are extremely unhappy with South Korea’s policy toward North Korea, and the hatred against the South Korean government is growing.

Kim Jung Il is cornered and has nowhere to go. I am certain that no one in North Korea is even remotely fond of him in any way. I think his luck is running out even though he frantically tries to oppress the citizens with military forces, scaring them with guns and knives. The soldiers can see that their families are starving to death. If a soldier who has a head on his soldier, how could he possibly perceive all this as normal? I think I have said enough to help you realize what is necessary in order to tear down Kim Jung Il’s regime and liberate North Koreans who trust you as brothers and sisters in the worst of times as these.

Kae Sung Industrial District is nothing but a channel to bring in foreign currency for Kim Jung Il, who is constantly running out of money. This is also true about the Keum Kang Mountain Tour project. Kim Jung Il needs South Korea’s money, and the success of the relationship between North and South will depend on how much money he gets. In other words, it will depend on how satisfied “Our General” is. The more money he gets, the better the North-South relations will be, and vice versa. Note that this is not about the relationship between North Korea and South Korea, but rather the relationship between Kim Jung Il and South Korea.

There is no other way to save North Koreans from their misery without pressuring Kim Jung Il to the point of suffocation. We need to cut off the financial support in order to dismantle the Liberation Army and weaken North Korea’s intelligence agency. If the U.S., Japan and South Korea gather their resources to pressure Kim Jung Il, he will have to choose between the collapse and the reformation, that is to open up. I plead with you again to consider the anguish of North Korean who live like slaves. Someday, the just judgment of North Koreans will be against those who help Kim Jung Il.

Thank you.
Kim Sung Kil (pseudonym)

North Korea Threatens U.S. Bases; South Korea Drops North as 'Main Enemy'

From CNN:

North Korea will turn U.S. military bases in the region into a “sea of fire” if war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, North Korean media on Friday quoted a communist officer as saying. The North’s state-run news media highlighted the comment hours after South Korea released a new defense policy paper that revealed a U.S. reinforcement plan to dispatch 690,000 troops and 2,000 warplanes if war breaks out in Korea.

Most U.S. Army personnel in Korea are presently stationed within twenty miles of the Korean DMZ, within range of thousands of North Korean artillery pieces. Much of the North Korean artillery is sited inside underground roll-in / roll-out emplacements. Other U.S. installations are located in the middle of crowded residential areas in the South Korean cities of Seoul, Taegu, and Pusan.

For the first time, the South Korean Defense Ministry’s annual white paper does not list North Korea as its “main enemy.” Although attitudes among South Koreans have grown increasingly pro-North Korean and anti-American, the South Korean government recently asked the United States to slow down the planned withdrawal of one-third of the U.S. forces from South Korea.

Some South Koreans want to keep U.S. forces in their country to act as a “trip wire” in the event of a North Korean attack. Others fear the economic impact of U.S. troop withdrawals. Others want the troops to remain near the DMZ to restrict U.S. options. They believe that without thousands of U.S. troops in North Korean artillery range, the United States would be free to consider attacks against North Korean nuclear facilities.

American troops in South Korea have recently been the victims of a spate of violent assaults. Recent polling data suggest that the U.S. defense contribution to South Korea, which, according to the Cato institute, costs U.S. taxpayers $15-20 billion annually, has resulted in little appreciation from the South Korean people. According to one survey last year, more South Koreans consider the U.S. the greatest threat to their nation’s security than North Korea. In the event of war between the U.S. and North Korea, 20% of South Koreans say their country should take the North’s side; another 30% were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of South Koreans were disappointed that the Iraqi Army did not fight harder outside Baghdad, more than twice the number who said they were pleased with the quick Iraqi collapse.

Scientists: N. Korea Sold Uranium to Libya

The New York Times is reporting that U.S. scientists now believe that North Korea was the source of enriched uranium recovered from Libya, a state long suspected of links to numerous terrorist groups:

Scientific tests have led American intelligence agencies and government scientists to conclude with near certainty that North Korea sold processed uranium to Libya, bolstering earlier indications that the reclusive state exported sensitive fuel for atomic weapons, according to officials with access to the intelligence. The determination, which has circulated among senior government officials in recent weeks, has touched off a hunt to determine if North Korea has also sold uranium to other countries, including Iran and Syria.

The sales would have pre-dated Libya’s December 2003 agreement to sever its links to terrorism and abandon its WMD development programs. The report closely follows a sudden and unexplained recall of the U.S. Ambassador to South Korea from Seoul to Washington for consultations with Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. Meanwhile, top officials of the National Security Council have flown to Asia to brief U.S. allies in the region.

The new findings appear to confirm earlier reports of North Korean nuclear transfers to Libya. Information from Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan’s exposed nuclear network also suggests that North Korea had a highly enriched uranium program since at least 1997, and that it had since sold Pakistan an unknown amount of highly enriched uranium hexafluoride.

President Bush is expected to discuss North Korea during tonight’s State of the Union address. The latest report may add urgency to the administration’s search for a solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis. The administration’s publicly stated policy is to pursue six-nation disarmament talks, but diplomacy has produced no significant progress thus far, and North Korea has refused to participate in the talks since June 2004. Others, reportedly including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, are believed to hold little hope that talks with resolve the crisis and privately favor regime change through a combination of economic pressure and political subversion. A new law, the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004, appropriates $2 million for “such actions as may be necessary to increase the availability . . . of sources of information not controlled by the Government of North Korea, including . . . radios capable of receiving broadcasts from outside of North Korea.” Congress is working with other government agencies on ways to carry out this provision.

A 1994 disarmament agreement with North Korea collapsed after the United States accused North Korea of violating the agreement, known as the Agreed Framework. The Clinton Administration, which signed the agreement with North Korea, had also suspected North Korea of violating it since at least 1999. In 2001, the new Bush Administration ordered a policy review, concluded that North Korea had violated the agreement, and halted deliveries of fuel oil to North Korea. North Korea then expelled all IAEA inspectors and unilaterally withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). U.S. negotiators say that their North Korean counterparts later admitted that Pyongyang had an undeclared uranium enrichment program, which would violate the North’s NPT obligations—obligations it had reaffirmed in the 1994 agreement. Pyongyang has since denied making the admission.

The latest report conflicts with the beliefs of some North Korea experts that North Korea is unlikely to supply nuclear materials to terrorists or their sponsors. Former Clinton (and later, Bush) administration negotiator Jack Pritchard, who strongly favors offering Pyongyang expanded trade and diplomatic relations in exchange for North Korea’s agreement to halt its nuclear programs, recently told Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun that a North Korean sale of nuclear material to terrorists would cross a “red line” for the Bush Administration. Another strong Bush Administration critic, Selig Harrison, has questioned the administration’s evidence of a North Korean uranium enrichment program and downplayed fears that North Korean transfers of nuclear material pose a proliferation risk: “The North Koreans said they would never allow such a transfer to al-Qaida or anyone else.”

In December 2003, Libya agreed to turn its nuclear materials over to the United States, which maintains them at a Department of Energy facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. That agreement closely followed an interception of Libyan-bound centrifuge parts by member states of the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led coalition created to combat WMD proliferation. It also followed Libya’s 2002 acceptance of responsibility for the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, and its agreement to compensate the families of those killed in the attack.

Before the December 2003 agreement, and at the time North Korea allegedly sold the materials to Libya, Colonel Moammar Khadaffy’s regime was considered a generous state sponsor of terrorism. According to this Heritage Foundation report:

Libya is one of seven regimes listed by the State Department as state sponsors of terrorism. The country has a long history of support for terrorist groups in the Middle East and more than thirty terrorist groups worldwide. Libya provided arms, funding, and training for a wide variety of Palestinian terrorist groups (Fatah, the Palestine Liberation Front, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, and the Abu Nidal group), as well as the Kurdistan Workers Party, the Colombian terrorist group M19, the Red Brigades in Italy, and assorted other terrorist groups in Japan, Turkey, Northern Ireland, Thailand and elsewhere.

Libya was caught red-handed sponsoring a terrorist attack against Americans in 1986, when it bombed a German discotheque frequented by American servicemen, killing two Americans. The Reagan Administration retaliated by bombing Libyan targets on April 15, 1986, narrowly missing Qadhafi himself. Although Libya has not been caught red-handed in launching terrorist attacks in recent years, it has not closed down all of its terrorist training camps and could resume its terrorist activities as soon as it finds it convenient to do so.

In addition to its involvement in the Lockerbie bombing, Libya is also responsible for the 1989 bombing of a French passenger jet in Niger, which killed 170 people. A French court convicted in absentia six Libyans, including the brother in law of Colonel Qadhafi, for carrying out the bombing. Libya offered to pay a paltry $33 million in compensation to the families.

Of more recent and greater concern is Libya’s recent $12 million payment to the Filipino terror group abu-Sayyaf, described by Libya as a “ransom” payment for several foreign hostages. Abu Sayyaf is closely tied to al-Qaeda, although it has since been virtually destroyed by the Filipino Army, working with soldiers of the 1st Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group, operating from Torii Station, Okinawa, Japan.

UPDATE: The story went unmentioned in the SOTU. More updates, including IAEA skepticism and my own comments, here.

Times of London: North Korean Regime in Its Death Throes

Two correspondents from the Times of London, who entered North Korea under the guise of potential investors, have filed this remarkable report headlined, “Chairman Kim’s Dissolving Kingdom.” It paints a picture of rapid decay among the state’s mechanism of control, as if only inertia and an initial spark are delaying the regime’s rapid (and most likely, violent) collapse. What follow are the major points one distills from the piece:

1. The erosion of the fear state is equally visible to casual observers and insiders. The reporters, who rather bravely posed as would-be investors, saw two refugees slip across the border into China between police patrols as the approached the border.

According to exiles, North Korean agents in Beijing and Ulan Bator are frantically selling assets to raise cash — an important sign, says one activist, because “the secret police can always smell the crisis coming before anybody else”.

. . . .

Word has spread like wildfire of the Christian underground that helps fugitives to reach South Korea. People who lived in silent fear now dare to speak about escape. The regime has almost given up trying to stop them going, although it can savagely punish those caught and sent back.

“Everybody knows there is a way out,” said a woman, who for obvious reasons cannot be identified but who spoke in front of several witnesses. “They know there is a Christian network to put them in contact with the underground, to break into embassies in Beijing or to get into Vietnam. They know, but you have to pay a lot of money to middlemen who have the Christian contacts.”

Her knowledge was remarkable. North Korean newspapers are stifled by state control. Televisions receive only one channel which is devoted to the Dear Leader’s deeds. Radios are fixed to a single frequency. For most citizens the internet is just a word. Yet North Koreans confirmed that they knew that escapers to China should look for buildings displaying a Christian cross and should ask among Korean speakers for people who knew the word of Jesus.

. . . .

The regime is fighting to save itself from subversion. Its agents kidnapped Kim Dong-shik, a South Korean missionary, from the turbulent Chinese border town of Yanji in 2000. Last week the South Koreans demanded a new investigation: the clergyman has never been seen again.

The secret police cannot staunch the word of the gospel. Two of our party turned out to be Christian businessmen who had come from China carrying wads of cash. Korean-language Bibles have been smuggled in by the hundreds.

The veneer of communist propaganda is still kept up. “There is no need for religion in North Korea,” said our loyal tour guide. “Personally, I believe in the Korean Workers’ party and our Dear Leader.”

2. Kim Jong Il may already have been dethroned. You heard it here first, but others are speculating that Kim Jong-Il has already been secretly removed from power. The speculation certainly ought to have intensified when Kim Jong-Il failed to meet with either congressional delegation that visited Pyongyang recently.

Some of those interviewed believe the “Dear Leader”, Kim Jong-il, has already lost his personal authority to a clique of generals and party cadres. Without any public announcement, governments from Tokyo to Washington are preparing for a change of regime. . . . Rumours of rivalry and bloodshed have multiplied since the Dear Leader’s last meetings with dignitaries from Russia and China last September. Since then Kim has vanished from view. Analysts in Seoul say that in recent propaganda pictures the bouffant-haired dictator is wearing the same clothes as in photographs from two years ago, suggesting that they may have been taken then. Observers await Kim’s official birthday, February 16, to see if the state media accord him the usual fawning adulation.

3. Persistent rumors suggest that the regime’s leadership is divided to the point of fratricide. Take those reports with the obvious caution that the sources (or lack thereof) suggest:

Jang Song-thaek, Kim’s ambitious brother-in-law, was purged from party office after he tried to build up a military faction to put his own son in power. Mystery surrounds the fate of Vice-Marshal Jo Myong-rok, the soldier once sent as Kim’s emissary to meet Bill Clinton in the White House. . . . The dictator’s favoured heir apparent, his son Kim Jong-chol, 23, who was educated in Geneva, is reported to have staged a shoot-out inside a palace with Kim Jang-hyun, 34, an illegitimate son of Kim Il-sung, father of the dictator and founder of the dynasty.

. . . .

Last April an unknown number of North Koreans died in an explosive fireball that wrecked the railway station at Ryongchon, near the Chinese border, on the day when Kim’s personal train was due to pass through.

Foreign diplomats initially accepted the regime’s explanation of an accident. But two well informed ambassadors in Pyongyang say that they now have doubts. In a telltale measure, frontier guards ordered us to leave all mobile phones at the Chinese border post — rumour has it that the Ryongchon blast was triggered by a mobile phone.

An attempt to kill Kim would come as no surprise. Defections by party officials and army officers have increased as the elite senses that it faces disaster.

The Japanese intelligence agency, in an unclassified report issued on December 24, referred to “signs of instability” inside the political establishment and predicted a feud among the elite as they strive to seize power from Kim.
. . . .
Japan is considering economic sanctions to retaliate for the kidnappings of its nationals by North Korea and some American policymakers think that the regime should be pushed to the point of self-destruction.

5. The re-election of George W. Bush and America’s perceived turn toward “hard-line” policies were a stunning psychological blow to the regime.

Here in the north of the country, faith, crime and sheer cold are eroding the regime’s grip at a speed that may surprise the CIA’s analysts: facts that should give ammunition to conservatives in Washington who call for a hardline policy.

Bush’s re-election dealt a blow to Kim, 62, who had gambled on a win by John Kerry, the Democratic candidate. Kim used a strategy of divide and delay to drag out nuclear talks with the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea through 2004. Kim lost his bet and now faces four more years of Bush, who says that he “loathes” the North Korean leader and has vowed to strip him of atomic weapons.

President Bush does not deserve the exclusive credit, of course—far from it. The story fails to mention the likely importance of the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004, which passed unanimously on the initiative of Congress, not President Bush. The law requires the United States to pressure North Korea to loosen its oppression of its people by tying U.S. negotiating, aid, and trade policies to human rights concerns. It also appropriates funds for secretly delivering tuneable radios into North Korea and expanding Korean-language broadcasts of Radio Free Asia. Since the passage of the legislation in the House last summer—which first signalled the likely success of the bill—there has a wave of mass defections from North Korea (rapidly followed by desperate crackdowns in China and North Korea); initial signs of resistance have emerged from inside North Korea; there are signs of power shifts and demoralization in the regime itself; parliamentarians have launched similar efforts at human rights legislation in Japan and South Korea; the U.N. has appointed a Special Rapporteur on human rights in North Korea; and the United States will soon appoint its own Special Rapporteur.

6. Reported “economic reforms” have only resulted in more hardship for the North Korean people and an accelerated loss of state control.

Two years ago the younger Kim introduced free market reforms in a half-hearted attempt to restart an economy that has been dying since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Rajin, a deepwater port that is open to foreign trade, is supposed to be a showpiece of the new economy in the potentially rich northeast next to China and Russia.

However, here we saw economic chaos that has led to unheard-of social disorder. At the central market child beggars chased us along alleys of shoddy Chinese goods, past stalls heaped with decaying fish. A group of dead-eyed teenagers kicked and shoved the younger boys to go after the foreigners. The guides hastily warned us against robbers.

To most North Koreans the prices must have seemed insane. A crab caught locally cost more than a driver’s monthly wages of £1.40. A Chinese cotton vest cost two weeks’ money. Still hundreds of people jammed the officially sanctioned market and dozens of illegal vendors froze outside as they touted vegetables, clothes and hunks of rancid meat. No official intervened to stop the illicit trade. Judging by the aggressive pushing and arguing over the goods, there might have been a riot if they had. A few North Koreans are clearly making money. Many more, though, are falling into penury.

Later we were taken for lunch to a state restaurant where lukewarm fish, vegetables and rice were produced from a chilly kitchen. There were iron bars on the windows and a heavy padlock on the door to prevent looting. Marxists, if there were any remaining in North Korea, might have described the situation as prerevolutionary.
. . . .

On a freezing night when Rajin was sunk in gloom, its oil refineries empty, its power stations inert, one building stood ablaze with lights on the bleak seashore northeast of the city.

It was a casino, where slate-faced Chinese gamblers squandered thousands of dollars at the baccarat table while impassive guards scrutinised them for any hints of dodgy play.

That casino, known as the Emperor, has since shut down under intense pressure from China, after too many of its government officials gambled and lost state funds there. Scratch one more source of revenue for a financially desperate regime. More on the effect of economic reforms here.

China Returns Escaped Korean War POW to N. Korea

The Chosun Ilbo (Seoul) reports that South Korea has “expressed regret” over China’s apparent repatriation of 72 year-old Han Man-Taek to North Korea. Han was captured by North Korean forces while fighting for the South during the Korean War. He had been held in the North after the war, where he remained until his escape across the Tumen River into China in December 2003. In an earlier report on Han’s escape, the same newspaper quoted an unnamed source as stating that Han would likely be executed after his return to North Korea.

According to Article III of the 1953 Korean War Armistice Agreement, China and North Korea were both required to list, disclose, and return all prisoners of war “who insist on repatriation” to their home countries by September 27, 1953. Prisoners not released by that date were required to be handed over to the Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission. Disputes about the status and identity of persons are to be referred to the Military Armistice Commission.

UPDATE:

The Korea Times reported the following:

According to the Ministry of National Defense, there are more than 1,180 South Korean POWs in the North, with about 500 of them now believed to have died and some 179 still classified missing in action.

The sensitive issue has never been high on the inter-Korean agenda, with the South Korean government pushing for reconciliation with the North. North Korea maintains that it has already returned all POWs.

U.S. Citizen Disappears While Assisting North Korean Refugees

California native Rev. Jeffrey Park has reportedly disappeared in the Golden Triangle, a region of Southeast Asia that straddles the borderlands between Laos, Burma, Thailand, and China, and which is notorious for drug production, smuggling, and banditry. Park is a member of the Durihana organization, which assists North Koreans to escape their homeland via an underground railroad throught China, and had been attempting to assist a group of North Korean refugees who had been hiding in Jilin, China. He sought assistance at the South Korean embassy in Rangoon, Burma, but after the embassy refused to assist, Park attempted to return to Jilin and the refugees under his care.

South Korea recently announced a new policy that is intended to deter North Korean refugees from entering South Korea.

Eight More North Koreans Defect in Beijing

The Chosun Ilbo (S. Korea) reports that eight more North Korean refugees have crawled over the wire around the Japanese School in Beijing and claimed amnesty. Photograph here.

South Korea is strongly discouraging North Koreans from defecting and has announced plans to dramatically tighten inspections of refugees to deter defections, particularly mass defections. Such a plan, if implemented, could violate the U.N. Convention Against Torture and the U.N. Refugee Convention.

North Korea Cuts Rations, Raises Taxes

Yonhap, the official South Korean news agency, reports that North Korea has announced a significant cut in cut in food rations to 250 grams per person per day, the equivalent of two medium-size potatoes. The BBC, which also reported the story, notes that this is half of what the World Food Program recommends as a subsistence amount. The BBC report notes that although the most recent North Korean harvest was the best in a decade, food shortages have increased in recent years.

The ration cut closely follows another Yonhap report that North Korea had sharply increased taxes—officially deemed “voluntary payments”—specifically those it collects from “money-making” individuals. The report, relying on information from a Japanese non-governmental organization, did not specify whether the targets for the tax increase were relatively prosperous traders with connections to the ruling North Korean elite, subsistence-level traders who no longer receive rations, or both.

The BBC report suggested that the ration cuts may also have been part of the regime’s effort to encourage the growth of private markets. While some analysts suggest that the new measures are part of North Korea’s effort to reform its collapsed economy, they could also mean that the regime, which has become dependent on falling international aid, has reached a point of sufficient economic desperation that it is being forced to squeeze those on the fringes of its political base.

The BBC, citing World Food Program Figures, reported that 16 million North Koreans out of a total population of 22 million rely on government rations. Dr. Andrei Lankov, a Russian professor and North Korea expert who teaches in Seoul, recently wrote that while in theory all citizens are supposed to receive regular food rations, in practice, only members of the elite have received them in recent years.

Last year, North Korea dramatically raised food prices, an action that some observers speculated may have a move toward economic reform, but which could also have been intended to reallocate food and other scarce resources to citizens in favored political classes. North Korea has a highly complex, officially sanctioned class system that predetermines an individual’s eligibility for state jobs, benefits, and food. Recent reports from Amnesty International and Doctors Without Borders have accused the North Korean government of discrimination in its distribution of food and medical care, even suggesting that the regime may be using food as a weapon (see this Asia Times article for further analysis of these charges). A story in today’s Chosun Ilbo (Seoul) reports that the U.N.’s first Special Rapporteur on human rights in North Korea will soon submit a report criticizing North Korea’s food distribution policies and lack of transparency in the distribution of international food aid.

According to Section 3(11) of the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004, more than two million North Koreans may have starved to death since the early 1990s. The leadership of North Korea, officially a socialist state, reportedly lives lavishly, riding in imported luxury cars purchased with state funds. Reports of Kim Jong-Il’s own opulent and quirky lifestyle evoke comparisons with Roman emperors. North Korea is believed to spend as much as 30% of its GDP on its military, the highest such percentage of any country in the world.

Last week, a Seoul-based organization of North Korean defectors released a video that purports to be the first documentation of an anti-government organization inside North Korea itself. Although the tape shows signs of editing, other defectors have confirmed that some of the scenes in the tape show the North Korean city of Hoeryong. The increased availability of cell phones from China, in spite of a government ban on their possession, has also challenged the North Korean regime’s control over the flow of information both internally and from outside North Korea.

Pro-Democracy Movement In North Korea

The Associated Press reports it has obtained a copy of a 35-minute videotape showing written statements posted on a wall, urging North Koreans to fight to retrieve freedom and democracy:

A man is heard, but not seen, reading a statement, demanding Kim Jong Il be removed from his post. “The North Korean people are suffering from hunger and poverty because of Kim Jong Il’s dictatorship and dogmatic politics,” the man says.

The tape was delivered to the Seoul-based Citizen’s Coalition for Human Rights of Abductees and North Korean Refugees. The Coalition said the footage was taken by the Youth Solidarity for Freedom at a North Korean town near the border with China.

From California Yankee.

Eyes on Korea: Dec. 24/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

Top Topics

• Prof. Andrei Lankov of NKzone contributed a two-part series in the Asia Times on changes in North Korea that really is an absolute MUST READ.

• Some of the biggest names in Korean studies released a set of policy recommendations on the North Korean nuclear issue that any person following the crisis needs to read, regardless of whether they agree with the suggestions or not. Our comments section features some relevant points about the paper’s authors.

• Has the U.S. “sexed up” intelligence about North Korea’s uranium program?

Also on tap: SK report incl. South Korea cracking down on “planned defections,” U.S. neocons launch offensive on Seoul; NK report incl. Japan gets ticked off mightily at North Korea, the times might SOON be a’changin in Pyongyang, and much, much more!

Read the Rest…

North Korean Double Cross Provokes Japanese Crisis

From The Australian :

North Korea has warned the imposition of economic sanctions by Japan would be treated as a declaration of war and that the Pyongyang regime would “immediately react to it with powerful physical methods”.

In a statement broadcast yesterday by North Korea’s state news agency, a foreign ministry official also suggested sanction threats by “Japan’s ultra-right forces” were hardening Pyongyang’s resistance to rejoining international talks over its alleged nuclear weapons.

Powerful interests in Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party and the Diet are pressuring Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to freeze trade and aid in retaliation for North Korea’s latest breach of trust in the “abductees” affair.
[…]
One of 13 people the North Koreans admit to abducting, Ms Yokota was 13 when she was taken from Niigata province in 1977. Pyongyang claims she grew to adulthood and married a local, but later died.

Last month North Korea returned several photos of Ms Yokota and a box of ashes they said were hers. Japanese scientists provoked a furious reaction when they reported DNA tests showed the remains were of two people, but neither was Ms Yokota.

In retaliation, the Japanese Government is likely to cancel a 125,000-tonne shipment of food and medical aid to North Korea – the second half of a consignment Mr Koizumi promised in June – but has so far resisted calls to impose economic sanctions.

Japan is North Korea’s third-biggest trading partner, behind China and the South. Last year exports to Japan earned the North Koreans Y20.1 billion ($250million) of badly needed hard currency. But Mr Koizumi is under pressure, including from former party secretary general and his favoured successor Shinzo Abe. Mr Abe said yesterday it was “meaningless” to continue negotiating with North Korea.

Simon's E. Asia Highlights: Nov. 30/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on East Asia, courtesy of Simon World.

Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here and the full archive here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. The following is a digest of highlights from the past month’s Asia by Blog series.

The round-up has four key areas of focus:

• China, Taiwan & Hong Kong: Politics, Economy & lifestyle, History sport & culture, Information
• Korea & Japan
• South-East Asia
• Asian Miscellany

Image Shows Missing Kim Jong Il Photo

Above is an image [courtesy of East Asia Intel] that shows one of the recent disappearances of Kim Jong Il photos throughout North Korea.

East Asia Intel

Some defectors from North Korea had said in response to news reports about removed portraits, that they would be replaced by new ones in more ornate frames.

...

Portraits of Kim and his deceased father are mandatory fixtures in every home, office, public buildings and factory in the country. All adults are required to wear lapel pins bearing images of one or both Kims.

Tipped by: Ace of Spades

Originally posted at Diggers Realm

Kim Jong-Il on the Skids?

Unlikely. We think. From ABC :

North Korea seems to be softening its hitherto rigid personality cult around leader Kim Jong-il, experts on the reclusive communist state said on Thursday — although they were still unsure why the changes had been made.

Some diplomats in Pyongyang, and other experts in the South with contacts in the North, said this week that portraits of Kim had been removed from some public places, starting as far back as September or even August. Others say little has changed.

In Tokyo, a Japanese news agency said on Thursday that North Korean media had dropped the most laudatory references to leader Kim Jong-il in the Korean broadcasts and texts it monitors.

“It may be an attempt to distance the country from the international image of worshipping a cult figure,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor and leading expert on Kim at Seoul’s Dongguk University. “The conditions in the North are not good, and there is a greater scrutiny also.”

Michael Breen, author of a biography of Kim, said it was too early to say what was behind the strategy, but it could be an attempt to deflect personal blame for the country’s ills.

Breen said he would like to see more evidence of the changes beyond the reports seen so far.

Or just possibly “blame his country’s -Il’s”. But you never know. Maybe it’s just a reaction to his recent film role.

Hat Tip : Powerline

Is Kim Jong Il Still the "Dear Leader"?

Kevin at Wizbang points us to this Megapundit analysis of two developments that augur a possible erosion (or more) in the power of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il: the removal of portraits of Kim and recent North Korean news reports that failed to refer to him as “Dear Leader.” Read the whole thing. Megapundit also points to an article in yesterday’s New York Times noting some of the same phenomena.

Stay tuned.

Unidentified Sub in Japanese Waters

From The Australian :

Japan today detected a submarine of unknown origin in its territorial waters, the Government’s top spokesman said.

Surveillance planes spotted the submarine in waters off a southern island near Okinawa, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda told a news conference.

He said Japan was trying to find out more about the vessel’s origin.

Radio and TV reports state the vessel is being tracked.

ANALYSIS: As it’s still being tracked, it’s very likely to be a diesel submarine, even a primitive nuke would probably have evaded by now. It may not be North Korean, but given previous incidents, it’s likely.
It is an open secret that submarines of all nations routinely violate territorial waters when performing surveillance and covert ops missions.

UPDATE : From the other ABC :

A Japanese navy aircraft chased an unidentified submarine out of waters near Japan’s Okinawa island chain on Wednesday in a rare display of the country’s military capability, long constrained by a pacifist constitution.

The P3C patrol plane that spotted the sub near the islands 1,000 miles southwest of Tokyo was still tracking the vessel, which had been ordered to surface and show a flag even though it had left Japanese waters, the government said.

Several Japanese destroyers had also been dispatched to the area, Kyodo news agency reported.

“It is regrettable. It is certainly not a good thing that an unidentified submarine entered our country’s territorial waters,” Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told reporters.

Some media reports suggested the submarine may be Chinese.

Public broadcaster NHK quoted an official at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo as saying he did not know whether Chinese military vessels had entered Japanese waters.

It is rare for the Maritime Self-Defense Force, as the navy is known, to be mobilized over such incidents.

The Japan Coast Guard is in charge of maintaining the security of the country’s coastline and waters.

The last time the navy was mobilized was in 1999 when a suspected North Korean spy ship violated Japanese waters.

In December 2001, an unidentified ship also believed to have been crewed by North Korean spies sank in the East China Sea after an exchange of fire with a coast guard patrol vessel.

Simon's Asia Briefing: Oct. 27/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on East Asia, courtesy of Simon World.

Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. The following is a digest of highlights from the past month’s Asia by Blog series.

The round-up has four key areas of focus:

• China, Taiwan & Hong Kong
• Korea & Japan
• South-East Asia
• Miscellany

Eyes on Korea: Oct 26/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

Top Topics

• WOC’s very own Robin Burk did a bang-up job analyzing Nick Eberstadt’s The Persistence of North Korea as presented in Policy Review. The Flying Yangban contributes his thoughts on Eberstadt’s piece as well.

• Manchurian Incident: Part II? The Republic of Korea may or may not have placed a (qualified, perhaps) territorial claim on a large chunk of the Chinese Northeast. The Chinese have or may not have reciprocated with plans to annex N. Korea should that last outpost of Stalinism fall apart. The South Koreans also figure that should the balloon go up on the Peninsula, the PRC would dispatch up to 400,000 men to support the North.

On Tap This Month: NK defectors making “big push”; Chinese humanitarianism; Reactions to the NK Human Rights Act; The information war; NK prison camps; Various diplomatic & military strategies; ROK in Iraq; Anti-Americanism in ROK; US Forces changes; Prostitutes; Silicon butts, and much more!

Read the Rest…

Eyes on Korea: Sept. 29/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

Top Topics

• Couple of good posts discussing U.S. options vis-a-vis N. Korea. Winston Marshall contributed a simply briliant essay looking at U.S. options for resolving the nuclear crisis. Nicholas Eberstadt gives us six possible scenarios for the North Korea issue — definitely worth reading. Meanwhile, Robert J. Einhorn puts forward some very good arguments in favor of engagement with North Korea.

• ROK troops have finally deployed to Irbil, Iraq, where they will be the third largest contingent behind the U.S. and Great Britain. Their commander, Maj. Gen. Hwang Eui-don, discussed the security situation in Irbil with Yonhap News.

On Tap This Month: S. Koreans helping N. Koreans produce nerve gas, S. Korean intellectual criticizes biased and unobjective U.S. understanding of N. Korea, S. Korean spooks for Kerry, N. Korean pressure cookers, the Great S. Korean prostitution crack down, and much, much more!

Read The Rest…/a>

Minister: N. Korea Has Nuclear Deterrent

The AP reports:

North Korea says it has turned the plutonium from 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods into nuclear weapons to serve as a deterrent against increasing U.S. nuclear threats and to prevent a nuclear war in northeast Asia. Warning that the danger of war on the Korean peninsula “is snowballing,” Vice Foreign Minister Choe Su Hon provided details Monday of the nuclear deterrent that he said North Korea has developed for self-defense.

Simon's E. Asia Briefing & China News: Sept. 28/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on East Asia and China, courtesy of Simon World.

Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog Simon World, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). This is an excerpt of some of the highlights from those round-ups over the past month. You can be notified by email when it is updated: just send me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. This briefing has been cross-posted at Simon World.

The round-up has four key areas of focus, with the main area being greater China:

• China, Taiwan & Hong Kong
• Korea & Japan
• South-East Asia
• Miscellany

US concerned over reports of possible North Korea missile tests

China View: US concerned over reports of possible DPRK missile tests

NEW YORK (Xinhuanet) -- US Secretary of State Colin Powell voiced on Thursday his concern over reports that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is probably preparing for new missile tests.

Speaking to reporters at the Foreign Press Center in New York, Powell said it "would be very unfortunate if the North Koreans were to do something like this and break out of the moratorium that they have been following for a number of years."

South Korean and Japanese media reported earlier that South Korean, Japanese and US authorities had detected activities relating to missile tests in the DPRK.

... But Powell said any missile test would not change US policy on the DPRK's nuclear issue and the six-party talks aiming to resolve it.The talks involve Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, the DPRK and the United States.

"N Korea says it blew up mountain"

BBC:

About The Seismographs

I think it’s wise to remove the matter of the Alaska seismographs when considering the NK nuke test story. Yes, Alaska-area seismography stations recorded an event on the same day as the as yet unproven test. If you visit the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program site, however, you can visit their list of worldwide quake activity in the past seven days, which not only indicates event time, but location.

These real-time records place the epicenter of the event recorded in Alaska (indeed, there were actually two events just minutes apart) in the Fox Islands section of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska. You can see the data, and a map of the event, here. The site also records no activity in Korea, North or South, over the same stretch of time.

That said, did anyone out there feel the 3.6 this morning near Shelbyville, Indiana?

North Korean Explosion Not Nuclear

CNN reports that the huge explosion that shook North Korea’s northernmost province on Thursday and produced a mushroom cloud was not the result of a nuclear explosion.

From California Yankee.

Blast, Mushroom Cloud Reported in N. Korea

AP: Blast, Mushroom Cloud Reported in N. Korea

A large explosion occurred in the northern part of North Korea, sending a huge mushroom cloud into the air on an important anniversary of the communist regime, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported Sunday.

Citing an unidentified source in Beijing, Yonhap said the explosion happened on Thursday in Yanggang province near the border with China. The damage and crater left by the explosion in Kim Hyong Jik county was big enough to be noticed by a satellite, the source said.

“We understand that a mushroom-shaped cloud about 3.5- to 4- kilometer (2.2 miles to 2.5 miles) in diameter was monitored during the explosion,” Yonhap quoted an unidentified diplomatic source in Seoul as saying.

BACKGROUND:
NYT: Atomic Activity in North Korea Raises Concerns

President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon, according to senior officials with access to the intelligence.

While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq’s alleged weapons stockpiles.

Some analysts in agencies that were the most cautious about the Iraq findings have cautioned that they do not believe the activity detected in North Korea in the past three weeks is necessarily the harbinger of a test. A senior scientist who assesses nuclear intelligence says the new evidence “is not conclusive,” but is potentially worrisome.

Eyes on Korea: 2004-09-10

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

Top Topics

• NKzone features two commentaries on U.S. policy and the North Korean nuclear issue that are certainly worth the read.

• This is why no one can find North Korea’s uranium program — they’re looking in the wrong Korea! Consequences, consequences.

• Reductions in U.S. troop levels in Korea lead, naturally enough, to changes in U.S. operational plans for the Korean Peninsula. Oddly enough, the Chosun Ilbo is surprised by this.

• Do check out U.S. military defector Charles Jenkins’ his interview with FEER now that he has returned from North Korea — it’s amazing.

On Tap This Month: NK’s new missiles; Moonies helping NK?; Chinese maneuvers on NK border, dispute with SK; Pizza for Kim; Insults R Us; More defectors; Engagement vs. human rights; US Troop withdrawal; USFK & Korean soldiers to Iraq; SK not an ally?; Paul Hamm; Western media doesn’t ‘get’ Korea; Korean bloggers.

Read the Rest…

AfricaPundit's Regional Briefing: Sept 7/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Africa, courtesy of AfricaPundit.

TOP TOPICS

• The remedy for all that ails Africa? Abiola notes Thabo Mbeki’s plan to tax South Africa into prosperity.

• It’s been about a year since Charles Taylor was forced from power in Liberia. Here’s an update on the continuing disarmament process.

Other Topics Today Include: Nigerian news; Robert Mugabe: Both “great” and a “tyrant”; Equatorial Guinea coup revelations; Central Africa; Sudan; Plague of locusts.

Read the Rest…

Simon's E. Asia Overview: Aug 25/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too.

It’s time to have a look at East Asia and what’s been making the news in Asian blogs over the past month. Simon World has a twice weekly post called Asia by Blog, and this is an excerpted set from over the past month.

N.B. Simon’s new blog showcase features the newest blogging talent from around the world… and speaking of new talent - big congratulations on the birth of Simon’s new baby boy.

• China, Taiwan & Hong Kong
• Korea & Japan
• South-East Asia
• Miscellany

New North Korean Missiles Could Threaten U.S.

R-27 / SS-N-6 SERB (from Global Security.org)

Jane’s Defence Weekly:

Emerging reports indicate that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea - DPRK) is developing— and is in the process of deploying—at least two new ballistic missile systems.

The first is a land-based road-mobile medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM)/intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with an estimated range of 2,500-4,000km. The second is a companion submarine or ship-mounted ballistic missile system with a range of at least 2,500km. Both systems appear to be based on the decommissioned Soviet R-27 (NATO: SS-N-6) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

The R-27 is a single-stage, liquid-propellant SLBM that became operational in the Soviet Navy during 1968. It weighs 14,200kg and is 9.65m in length, with a diameter of 1.5m and a range of 2,500km. The original version carried a single nuclear re-entry vehicle (RV), while the later R-27U carried three RVs, each with a 200kT payload.

It is believed that the R-27 technology originated with personnel from the VP Makeyev Design Bureau in Miass, Chelyabinsk. A group of 20 missile specialists from the bureau was detained in December 1992 as they were attempting to depart for the DPRK.

Reuters:

North Korea is deploying new land- and sea-based ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads and may have sufficient range to hit the United States, according to the authoritative Jane’s Defense Weekly.

In an article due to appear Wednesday, Jane’s said the two new systems appeared to be based on a decommissioned Soviet submarine-launched ballistic missile, the R-27.

It said communist North Korea had acquired the know-how during the 1990s from Russian missile specialists and by buying 12 former Soviet submarines which had been sold for scrap metal but retained key elements of their missile launch systems.

Jane’s, which did not specify its sources, said the sea-based missile was potentially the more threatening of the two new weapons systems.

“It would fundamentally alter the missile threat posed by the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) and could finally provide its leadership with something that it has long sought to obtain — the ability to directly threaten the continental U.S.,” the weekly said….

…Ian Kemp, news editor of Jane’s Defense Weekly, said North Korea would only spend the money and effort on developing such missiles if it intended to fit them with nuclear warheads.

“It’s pretty certain the North Koreans would not be developing these unless they were intended for weapons of mass destruction warheads, and the nuclear warhead is far and away the most potent of those,” he told Reuters….

…Jane’s said North Korea appeared to have acquired the R-27 technology from Russian missile experts based in the Urals city of Chelyabinsk. It said one such group was detained in 1992 when about to fly to North Korea, but others visited later.

It said Pyongyang was also helped by the purchase, through a Japanese trading company, of 12 decommissioned Russian Foxtrot-class and Golf II-class submarines which were sold for scrap in 1993.

It said the missiles and electronic firing systems had been removed, but the vessels retained their launch tubes and stabilization sub-systems.

More from VOA via GlobalSecurity.org.

Cross-posted from Backcountry Conservative.

How Do You Spell "Mengele" in Korean?

From the BBC, via Josh at One Free Korea blog:

bq.. “A North Korean scientist says he used experimental chemical weapons on prisoners and stood there taking notes while they died in agony.

Dr Kim tells us: “The purpose of this experiment was to determine how long it takes for a human being to die - we wanted to determine how much gas was necessary to annihilate the whole city of Seoul.”

Now close your eyes real tight and repeat to yourself: “North Korea’s regime isn’t evil, they just have their own narrative…” over and over again, lest the political correctness police cite you for insufficient validation of other cultures and lifestyles.

Or, if you’re a sane individual, keep the pressure on America’s Senate to pass the North Korean Human Rights Act.

I’m not an American - but I can pressure my own political representatives to pass a similar law, and I will. Won’t you join me?

Simon's East Asia Overview: July 21/04

Simon runs a regular overview feature on his blog, Simon World, where “East meets Westerner.” He’s also the founder of the New Blog Showcase for bloggers just starting out. One good turn deserves another, Simon… so with his agreement, his overview is cross-posted today to Winds of Change.NET.

TOP TOPICS

• Slowly minds are being turned on the idea that China might actually invade Taiwan. More inside…

• JK: Simon has an interesting article on China’s population policies. It includes population growth, gender imbalance figures, and efforts to “[raise] the population quality.”

• JK: Congress will vote on the North Korean Human Rights Act this week. One Free Korea explains what the act would do, and why it’s important for Americans to contact their representatives. He even has a sample letter to help. I would urge Americans to get involved, for all the reasons Joshua describes. North Korea is literally a rolling genocide, complete with concentration camps whose depths of cruelty and depravity stand on the same level as Treblinka et. al. Prudence and circumstances may prevent us from removing the regime, but we cannot just turn a blind eye and pretend this isn’t happening.

INSIDE

Doing the rounds for the Asian blogging round-up:

• Hong Kong, Taiwan and China
• Korea and Japan
• Southeast Asia
• Miscellany

Japan Seeks Broader Military Role

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan

Shinichi Kiyotani of Jane’s Magazine reports in a July 12, 2004, article:

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

It notes other threats in the region. “Taken together with its suspected nuclear weapons programme, North Korea’s development and deployment of ballistic missiles constitute a destabilising factor for the international community as a whole and have generated intense anxiety,” states the paper.

- - - - - - -

The web page for the Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is here.

In December 2003 the Government of Japan decided to introduce a ballistic missle defense system.

The link to the nikita demosthenes post is here.

N. Korea Threatens to Test Nuclear Weapon

AP: N. Korea Threatens to Test Nuclear Weapon

North Korea told the United States on Thursday that it would test a nuclear weapon unless Washington accepted Pyongyang’s proposal for a freeze on its atomic program, a senior administration official said.

Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan spoke with Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly in a 2 1/2-hour private discussion in China, where a six-nation conference is being held on the long-running impasse over Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.

The United States has been insisting on complete disarmament by the communist state and submitted a proposal to the conference on Wednesday outlining the benefits North Korea could receive if it complies.

The senior administration official said the North Korean threat suggested that the Beijing discussions were headed toward failure. The conference ends on Friday with the issuance of a communique.

There was no indication of when North Korea might carry out its reported threat to test. The United States is uncertain as to how many weapons North Korea possesses, but thinks it has at least one or two with the potential for several more.

N. Korea Considers Freezing Nuke Program

AP: N. Korea Considers Freezing Nuke Program

North Korea demanded massive energy aid Thursday at six-nation talks where Washington insisted that the North give up nuclear weapons development, Japanese news reports said.

The North wants the equivalent of 2,000 megawatts of power per year — an estimated one-fourth of its current total consumption — in exchange for freezing work on its nuclear program, the Kyodo News agency reported, citing diplomatic sources on the second day of talks in the Chinese capital. In the United States, a megawatt can supply power to about 1,000 homes.

It was unclear whether Washington would even discuss such a request since the United States says the North must commit to dismantling the program, not just freezing development.

U.S. Offers Carrot, N.Korea Says Drop the Stick

REUTERS: U.S. Offers Carrot, N.Korea Says Drop the Stick

The United States offered a proposal on Wednesday to try to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis at six-party talks in Beijing while an entrenched Pyongyang urged Washington to soften its stance.

Chief negotiators from the six parties opened discussions on the 20-month nuclear crisis at the exclusive Diaoyutai State Guesthouse as Japan warned that the credibility of the talks would be on the line if no progress was made.

Progress in two previous rounds has been glacial, and few expect major breakthroughs despite the U.S. proposal, which the New York Times said contained incentives for the North to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

“We are prepared for serious discussion and we have a proposal to offer,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said in an opening statement. Kelly gave no details.

“A focus on the common objective, and practical and effective means to attain it, will lead in a very positive direction with new political, economic and diplomatic possibilities,” he said.

Eyes on Korea Report: June 11/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

TOP TOPIC

• Well, John Kerry finally outlined his ideas concerning North Korea. Among them — direct talks between the U.S. and North Korea and discussions on a “broad agenda that includes reducing troop levels on the Korean peninsula, replacing the armistice that ended the Korean War and even reunifying North and South Korea.” NKzone has a couple of posts on this that are definitely worth checking out. I discuss this, too, as does the Flying Yangban, Seeing Eye Blog and FreeKorea
  
• International weapons inspectors are of the opinion the the DPRK sold nuclear materials to Libya in 2001. This is probably untrue, as the North Koreans had sworn that they would never sell nuclear materials abroad. Selig Harrison said so.

On Tap This Month

South Korea-U.S. alliance in turmoil, China thows down the gauntlet, Pyongyang peddling uranium, John Kerry on North Korea, intra-Korean military talks, tiger traps, dumplings you wouldn’t want to eat and much, much more!

Read The Rest…

Eyes on Korea Briefing: May 11/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

Today’s Headings Include:

• The DPRK (North Korea)
• The ROK (South Korea, incl. elections coverage)
• US-ROK Issues (incl. Iraq)
• Random Korea Stuff, from photos to sports to religion

North Korea Builds Up Missiles

Cross-post from OTB

Korea Herald: North Korea Builds Up Missiles

North Korea is reported to be building two underground launching sites aimed at deploying an intermediate-range ballistic missile with a target distance of up to 4,000 kilometers following successful development last year.

The missile is capable of reaching U.S. military bases in Guam or possibly Hawaii, the new report said.

“Two missile stations in Yangduk in western Pyeongan Province and in Heocheon in northeastern Hamgyeong are under construction with 70 to 80 percent completed,” the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean official.

The source said a U.S. spy satellite has detected about 10 new ballistic missiles and mobile launching pads at these bases.

But the South Korean military avoided commenting on the report.

“We can’t confirm nor deny the report, as similar stories have already been covered by the media,” said Defense Ministry spokesman Brig. Gen. Nam Dai-yeon in a news briefing.

United States Forces Korea also refused to comment on the report, saying, “We do not discuss (these) operational issues.” The USFK spokesperson did not elaborate on this comment.

The new system is clearly set apart from the North’s mainstay lineup of Scud and Rodong missiles that can fly much shorter distances. The missiles are reportedly 12 meters long and 1.5 meters wide, which are smaller than the already deployed missiles, but it can travel farther and is technically enhanced as it could be launched from a vehicle.

The North has about 500 Scud missiles with ranges of 300 kilometers to 500 kilometers and keeps most of its short and medium-range missiles. Also in its stockpiles is a huge amount of tanks in some 11,000 underground facilities.

The communist regime also possesses the Rodong-1 missile, which has a range of 1,300 kilometers (810 miles) and is capable of reaching most parts of Japan.

In August 1998, Pyongyang stunned the world by test-firing its Daepodong-1 intermediate-range ballistic missile that soared over Japan’s main island and into the Pacific Ocean. It has a range of up to 2,200 kilometers, but has yet to be deployed for a launch.

The North is also known to be developing a Daepodong-2 missile that can reach as far as Alaska with a maximum range of 6,000 kilometers, according to Defense Ministry data.

But the ministry did not disclose how many missiles the North has recently deployed and where they are located.

Analysts said the North’s reinforcement of missiles, regardless of the credibility of the report, may help the United States accelerate its move to establish a missile defense system in Northeast Asia.

“Pyongyang sees their missile development as their sovereign rights, but it could also justify the United States and Japan’s move to establish the missile-defense system, further irking China,” Baek Seung-joo, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, told The Korea Herald.

South Korea’s 650,000-member military is facing off 1.1 million-member North Korean army. About 37,000 U.S. troops remain in South Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in an armistice, but not a peace treaty.

North Korea and the United States have been locked in a standoff over the North’s development of nuclear weapons.

The North recently accused Washington of preparing a preemptive attack against it when the United States announced it would withdraw its troops by October from the heavily fortified inter-Korean border.

The U.S. military in South Korea will deploy two more Patriot antimissile batteries and establish an air defense brigade in Korea this fall to effectively deter the North’s missile attacks.

A first working group meeting will be held in Beijing May 12 under the six-nation talks that have been struggling to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue since the fall of 2002.

Many Died Saving Kims' Portraits in Blast?

(Via Fark)

REUTERS: Many Died Saving Kims’ Portraits in Blast?

Many North Koreans died a “heroic death” after last week’s train explosion by running into burning buildings to rescue portraits of leader Kim Jong-il and his father, the North’s official media reported on Wednesday.

Portraits of Kim and his late father, national founder Kim Il-sung, are mandatory fixtures in every home, office and factory in the hardline communist state of 23 million. All adults are required to wear lapel pins bearing images of one or both Kims.

Last Thursday’s blast in the town of Ryongchon, near the Chinese border, killed at least 161 people and injured 1,300, according to international relief agencies. Many of the victims were children.

The dead also included workers and teachers who died clutching the portraits of the country’s ruling family, said North Korea’s official KCNA news agency.

“Many people of the county evacuated portraits before searching after their family members or saving their household goods,” KCNA said in a report with a Ryongchon dateline.

“Upon hearing the sound of the heavy explosion on their way home for lunch, Choe Yong-il and Jon Tong-sik, workers of the county procurement shop, ran back to the shop,” KCNA said.

“They were buried under the collapsing building to die a heroic death when they were trying to come out with portraits of President Kim Il-sung and leader Kim Jong-il,” it said.

The KCNA report could not be independently verified.

N. Korea Receives Aid for Train Blast

AP: N. Korea Receives Aid for Train Blast

Tents and blankets, instant noodles and water purification tablets streamed into a North Korean town pulverized by a train explosion last week as international aid efforts accelerated Monday.

But North Korea was hesitant to open its heavily armed border with South Korea to let in aid shipments from the South Korean Red Cross.

As a cold rain fell on the devastated community of Ryongchon, just across the Chinese frontier, relief workers said more assistance was still needed. The death toll stood at 161 on Monday and more than 1,300 people were listed as injured in Thursday’s huge blast, fed by a cargo of oil and chemicals.

“There is still a huge need for help,” said Brendan McDonald, a U.N. aid coordinator in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. “The immediate needs for the homeless are under control. The main concern is for those in hospital.”

Japan planned to send medical kits and Russia promised aid Monday. South Korea, Australia and China have also agreed to contribute money and supplies.

Aid Workers Describe N. Korean Train Site

AP: Aid Workers Describe N. Korean Train Site

Aid workers and journalists who visited the site of a North Korean train explosion Saturday said the blast destroyed a rail station, gouged a 30-foot-deep crater and ripped the roofs off buildings more than two miles away.

Pictures from China’s Xinhua news agency showed a huge hole that dwarfed onlookers in the city of Ryongchon.

“Buildings around were totally flattened,” Jay Matta, a Red Cross official, said by phone from Pyongyang, the North Korean capital.

A three-story agricultural school near the station “was totally leveled” by Thursday’s blast, said Dr. Eigil Sorensen, the World Health Organization representative in Pyongyang. “There was nothing left. It was rubble.”

At a three-story primary school about 300 yards from the station, the roof was ripped away and the top floor collapsed, he said.

UN team to assess damage from train explosion in DPR of Korea

UN NEWS CENTER: UN team to assess damage from train explosion in DPR of Korea

The United Nations is sending a damage assessment team this weekend to the site of the train explosion in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) that killed 50 people and injured more than 1,000 others, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said today.

“A formal request for international assistance in response to the disaster was received by OCHA this afternoon from the Government,” it said, noting the multi-agency mission to Ryongchon County is planned for Saturday.

The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) have already reallocated about $150,000 worth of medicines and medical supplies from existing programmes to meet some of the immediate needs.

(Kofi Annan has already offered condolences to the victims of the blast, but no word yet on the victims of prison camps.)

North Korea Disaster Relief

The United Nations is reporting that North Korea is formally requesting disaster assistance. (Yahoo Full Coverage)

Once again, please check back here and with American Red Cross and ICRC for links to donation sites should they be placed online. The Chinese Red Cross and South Korean Red Cross will likely be heavily involved in recovery and relief work.

North Korean Train Explosions

AP is reporting as many as 3,000 killed in a train crash and explosions at a North Korean train station.

UPDATE:
Confirmed, via Reuters.

Up to 3,000 people have been killed or injured in a huge explosion after two goods trains collided in a North Korean station hours after leader Kim Jong-il had passed through, South Korea’s YTN television station says.

Yonhap news agency also said there were thousands of casualties. Both Yonhap and YTN did not give a breakdown of deaths and injuries.

UPDATE 2:
Two updates:

As many as 3,000 people were killed or injured Thursday when two trains carrying oil and liquefied petroleum gas collided and exploded in a North Korean train station, South Korean media reported.

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, reportedly had passed through the station as he returned from China hours earlier, South Korea’s all-news cable channel, YTN, reported.

The number killed or injured could reach 3,000, YTN said.

(Assassination attempt?)

UPDATE 3:
Donations? Information about NK Red Cross at ICRC site.

Also, keep an eye on American Red Cross and ICRC for more information, which will eventually be linked from here.

Eyes on Korea: Apr 13/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

TOP TOPICS

• Rebecca MacKinnon asks if the North Korea’s recent offer (perhaps) to trade its nuclear program for “appropriate corresponding measures” really means anything.

• Conrad of the Gweilo Diaries links to some outstanding pieces in the National Review discussing how aid to North Korea may be fueling the regime’s depravity.

• Korea’s 3,500 troops won’t be heading to Kirkuk, as originally planned. Instead, they’ll be heading somewhere in the Kurdish autonomous region — probably Sulaimaniyah or Irbil.

Other Topics Today Include: RAND study of ROK-US relations; Major US military realignment; SK elections and key info sources; More on SK & Iraq; NK Freedom Day April 28; NK budget & reforms bad news; What - no visas?; NK TV & Internet; NK - a middle way?; Libya model for NK; Spotlight on NK apologists in SK & USA.

Read The Rest…

On background - North Korea

National Review Online is featuring an excellent series of articles this week that provide quite a lot of background material on the subject of the hell on Earth known as North Korea. Well worth perusing if you wish to brush up on the situation surrounding ‘The Hermit Kingdom’.

The installments may be found here: first, second, third, fourth, with the final in the current lineup. Bit of a read, but worth it.

Eyes on Korea: March 16/04

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today’s Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

TOP TOPICS

• Impeachment!!!!! South Korea’s opposition-dominated National Assembly voted to impeach President Roh Moo-hyun only a year into a five year term.

• For all your NK diplomacy needs, I direct you NKzone’s archive on this subject — there’s enough info in their to keep you contented until next month’s briefing.

• North Korea has been getting quite a bit of negative press lately, almost all of it — IMHO — deserved. Most of this was covered by my March 5 briefing (Eyes on Korea: Dispatches from Hell) at this very weblog, and if you haven’t read it yet, you are highly encouraged to look at it now.

Other Topics Today Include: NK Nukes; More dispatches from hell; North Korea roundup; More on Roh’s impeachment; South Korea roundup; US Forces Korea; Your moment of Zen from Big Hominid.

Read The Rest…

South Korean President Impeached

Cross-post from OTB

WaPo: Divided S. Koreans Impeach President

President Roh Moo Hyun on Friday became South Korea’s first leader in history to be impeached, losing his constitutional powers in the climax of a political struggle that left South Koreans more sharply divided than at any point since the restoration of democracy in 1987.

***

The key legal charge against Roh is that he made statements asking voters to support the Uri Party, made up of his core group of supporters. This was considered by the National Electoral Commission to be a minor infraction of electoral laws; presidents in South Korea are not allowed to campaign for legislators.

Roh was also accused of incompetence in leadership and connections to a swirling political corruption scandal that has hit his political opponents even harder than his own administration. Analysts said that it remained unclear whether the constitutional court would uphold the impeachment.

Hahm Sung Deuk, a leading political analyst at Korea University in Seoul, said: “There will be major fallout from this for South Korea; impeachment will mean increased economic and political uncertainty. This is a time when we need stability, and instead, we have the opposite.”

Madrid Massacre

The Associated Press reports that explosions rocked three Madrid train stations today, killing at least 62 rush-hour commuters and wounding hundreds more. Officials called the explosions the deadliest attack ever by the Basque separatist group ETA:

“This is a massacre,” government spokesman Eduardo Zaplana said.

At least two bombs exploded around 7:30 a.m. local time in a commuter train arriving at Atocha station, a bustling hub for subway, commuter and long-distance trains in Spain’s capital. Blasts rocked two other stops on a commuter line leading to Atocha.

[. . .]

There was no claim of responsibility, but officials blamed ETA.

[. . .]

On Feb. 29, police intercepted a Madrid-bound van packed with more than 1,100 pounds of explosives, and blamed ETA. On Christmas eve, police thwarted an attempted bombing at Chamartin, another Madrid rail station, and arrested two suspected ETA members.

UPDATE: Reuters reports that the explosions killed 131 people and injured more than 400.

Eyes on Korea: 2003-12-09

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today's Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler of The Marmot's Hole.

Top Topics

• In case you haven't read through them yet, Andy of Flying Yangban has a brilliant four part series analyzing Korean reunification models and the reunification policies of the last two South Korean administrations - they really are must reads.

  Part 1: Intro and overview
  Part 2: German and Vietnamese models and Korea
  Part 3: China and Hong Kong, Yemeni models and Korea
  Part 4: Lessons to be learned, Bibliography
  

• American forces in South Korea will redeploy to positions south of the Han River, with the huge Yongsan Garrison in downtown Seoul being moved out of the capital to the Osan-P'yongtaek area. The Korean press reports that talks concerning troop reductions have been put off until the end of next year.

• Richard Halloran reported in the Washington Times that troops from Korea may be sent to Iraq and/or Afghanistan, a report vigorously denied by USFK headquarters in Korea. This is a highly confusing issue, and those who reside in South Korea are forced to endure an endless stream of contradictory reports on USFK redeployments/reductions. The Korean-language Internet news provider OhMyNews ran a very interesting piece (translated by me) on the removal of the American "tripwire" from the inter-Korean DMZ and the regional implications of the planned transformations of American forces in South Korea.

ALSO ON TAP TODAY: South Koreans killed in Iraq; China & Korea fight over ancient history; Josh Marshall on Korean diplomacy; Riots; Bruce Cumings attacks; Hunger strikes; North Korea & racial purity; anti-Americanism on South Korean campuses; the LG credit card crisis and much, MUCH MORE.

Read the Rest...

Rumsfeld brands DPRK "evil"

Asia News [ Full story »» ] reports:

US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has branded North Korea "evil" for spending money on weapons while starving its people. He said US troops based in South Korea lived on the border between freedom and slavery as he addressed hundreds of US airmen and women on the final day of a three day visit to the country. He said that 50 years after the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, when US-led UN forces fought Chinese-backed North Koreans, the divide between the communist North and capitalist South was now "so great the people in the North, repressed people to be sure, watch their children waste away, eat (tree) bark, as that evil regime spends huge sums on weapons." The remark, reminiscent of US President George W. Bush's "axis of evil" speech that stung North Korea last year, is sure to upset the Stalinist state which is currently engaged in delicate negotiations for a resumption of multilateral nuclear crisis talks.

North Korean Military 'Very Credible Conventional Force'

DefenseLINK [ Full story »» ] reports:

"They have the largest submarine force, the largest special operating force and the largest artillery in the world," Army Gen. Leon LaPorte, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea said. He noted that North Korea has 120,000 special operations forces. (...) Perhaps more importantly, North Korea poses a significant asymmetric threat. The country possesses chemical weapons, and "their doctrine is to use chemical weapons as a standard munition," LaPorte said. American officials are also concerned about North Korea's weapons of mass destruction, including potential use of its 800 missiles of various ranges. "The missiles themselves are a significant asymmetrical threat," LaPorte said. "But if that was combined with a nuclear capability, now you have a capability that not only threatens the peninsula but threatens the entire region."

Eyes on Korea Briefing: Nov 11/03

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Appropriately, this Veterans' Day Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler of The Marmot's Hole.

Top Topics

• A new round of six party talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis is likely to begin, and Kevin of Incestuous Amplifications smells a deal in the works. Parapundit also weighs in with his thoughts on a potential deal with the DPRK, as does Seeing Eye Blog.

• In case you were uncertain as to why North Korea is a charter member of the Axis of Evil, check out The Hidden Gulag (.pdf file), a report published by the The U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea - it's truly horrifying.

• Peter Maass contributes a fascinating expose on North Korean leader Kim Jong-il over at New York Times Magazine. Those looking for more reading material are adviced to also check out Newsweek's history of the North Korean nuclear program.

Read the rest...

Eyes On Korea Briefing: Oct 14/03

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler of The Marmot's Hole.

Top Topics

• North Korea welcomed in October by announcing that it was using reprocessed plutonium to make bombs - South Korean president Noh Mu-hyeon responded by calling for calm, while the Minister of Unification requested that the US take a more conciliatory stance towards the North Koreans. The Bush Administration, on the other hand, was apparently unimpressed, much to the chagrin of critics on the Left and Right.

• For those interested in the debate surrounding democracy and "Asian Values," Prince Roy over at PRC News links to an outstanding paper by UCLA's Randall Peerenboom that you'd be advised to download

• The Hoover Institute's Harry Rowen contributes some outstanding analysis of the North Korean situation in this issue of Policy Review - a must read.

read the rest! »
 

Hushoor's Korea Briefing: Sept 16/03

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler of the Marmot's Hole.

TOP TOPICS

• Make sure to read Tacitus's post on Kang Chol-Hwan's book "The Aquariums of Pyongyang" - it's absolutely amazing, & completely horrifying. Seeing Eye Blog's post on German North Korean human rights activist Norbert Vollertsen is equally noteworthy.

• The 6-party talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis in Beijing came and went, and the best that can be said is no one killed each other. The talks ended without a joint statement, with each participant putting their own unique spin on things - the US trying the positive approach, the Chinese blaming the Americans for their inflexibility, and the North Koreans declaring their intention to reject any future talks. There's more inside...

read the rest! »

North Korea to Raise Nuclear Capabilities

AP via Yahoo!

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea's parliament re-elected Kim Jong Il as the isolated country's top leader on Wednesday and approved his government's decision to "keep and increase its nuclear deterrent force" to counter what it calls a hostile U.S. policy.

As Kim watched from a raised platform, the Supreme People's Assembly - a rubber-stamp body for government policy - adopted a statement that also backed the Foreign Ministry's announcement last week that North Korea no longer had "interest or expectations" for future talks on its nuclear program, according to the North's official news agency KCNA.

KCNA also reported that the parliament "decided to take relevant measures." The news agency did not elaborate.

N. Korea to declare it possesses nuclear weapons

USA Today:

A defiant North Korea told the United States and four other nations for the first time that it is ready to declare itself a nuclear weapons power and conduct a nuclear test, administration officials said Thursday.

A U.S. official briefed on six-nation talks in Beijing said the North Korean diplomats made the threats first to Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly and other U.S. diplomats on Wednesday, then repeated them before envoys from China, Russia, Japan and South Korea.

"The Chinese were visibly angry and the others were taken aback," said the official, who asked not to be named. Kelly left the talks two hours before they concluded. There was no word on whether the meetings, which began Wednesday, would continue.

Hushoor's Korea Briefing: Aug 19/03

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Kwangju, South Korea.

TOP TOPIC

• China And South Korea Enable North Korean Nuclear Program. Parapundit believes attempts to stop nuclear proliferation to Iran and North Korea have essentually failed, with the outcome just a matter of time.

• A pair of eye-opening reports in the Washington Post concerning North Korea's weapons program and exports over time.

N. Korea Demands U.S. Commit To Nonaggression Treaty

FOX:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea demanded Wednesday that the United States commit to a nonagression treaty and normalize ties with the communist nation while rejecting any early inspection of its nuclear programs.

The demands came ahead of planned talks in Beijing to deal with North Korea's suspected development of nuclear weapons.

An unnamed North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said the United States must change its "hostile policy" toward North Korea "as a precondition for the solution to the nuclear issue."

New U.S. Nuclear Strategies?

Geitner Simmons notes that more than 150 policy makers from a wide range of agencies are gathered this week at Offutt Air Force Base just south of Omaha for a very big conference on U.S. nuclear strategy. The conference, at the U.S. Strategic Command, is reported to be re-examining both nuclear testing and the possible development of mini-nukes, including earth-penetrating nuclear "bunker busters."

That ought to give the North Koreans and Iranian mullahs something to think about.

N Korea suspends propaganda broadcasts

BBC:

North Korea has announced that it is to halt propaganda broadcasts to the South and has urged Seoul to reciprocate.

The move appears to reflect concern in Pyongyang about the impact South Korean broadcasts have on its population.

US official lambastes N Korea

BBC:

A senior United States official has launched a blistering attack on North Korea, saying the country had accelerated its nuclear weapons programme while its people lived a "hellish nightmare".

US arms negotiator John Bolton made some unusually personal criticisms of the North's leader, Kim Jong-il, who he called a "tyrannical dictator" living like royalty.

The comments appeared part of an on-going diplomatic stand-off over the North's nuclear ambitions, with neither side wishing to be seen to be weak ahead of expected talks.

North Korean bank is 'front for arms trade'

Observer:

North Korea's only bank in Europe is at the centre of a vast spying and criminal network funding its weapons programme, according to Austrian authorities.

An Austrian intelligence report says the Golden Star Bank in Vienna is a base for spies engaged in an illicit trade in missile technology.

The report, seen by The Observer, says: 'There are noticeable efforts by the North Korean secret services to place its agents in diplomatic and non-diplomatic positions in Austria. The camouflage for these activities is Europe's only established branch of the North Korean state bank, which is located in Vienna.'

The document says agents are raising hard currency for Kim Jong Il's regime 'by selling weapons and missile technology to Third World countries and countries in crisis in the Near and Middle East (for example, Syria, Iran, Iraq or Libya).'

Report: N. Korean nuke test threat

CNN:

North Korea is prepared to conduct a nuclear test unless the United States responds positively to its proposals for resolving a row over Pyongyang's weapons ambitions, Japanese and North Korean sources were quoted as saying by a Japanese newspaper on Saturday.

The Asahi Shimbun said this had been conveyed to U.S. envoy Jack Pritchard by a North Korean official in a secret meeting between officials from the two nations earlier this month.

Earlier this week, diplomatic sources in Tokyo told Reuters that the North was ready to declare itself a member of the nuclear club, opening the way for possible tests and increased production of weapons, unless the nuclear crisis is resolved by September 9 -- the anniversary of the communist nation's founding.

N. Korea missile firm sanctioned

CNN:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Bush administration has slapped sanctions on a North Korean company for shipping missile technology to Yemen last December, even though it allowed Yemen to keep the missiles.

On July 17 the United States imposed missile proliferation sanctions on the North Korean company, Changgwang Sinyong Corp., for "knowing involvement" in the transfer of missile technology to Yemen, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Friday.

The sanctions were announced in the Federal Register Friday, adding to sanctions already in place against the company and the North Korean government.

U.S. May Sign Non-Agression Pact with NK

The Washington Times reports:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Bush administration might be willing to give North Korea a written guarantee that the United States has no intention of attacking without provocation, the State Department said Tuesday.

At the same time, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration is working for a diplomatic solution to the impasse over the North Koreans' nuclear arms program but said it would not give inducements to achieve it.

North Korea Hides New Nuclear Site, Evidence Suggests

An important article from the New York Times:

American and Asian officials with access to the latest intelligence on North Korea say strong evidence has emerged in recent weeks that the country has built a second, secret plant for producing weapons-grade plutonium, complicating both the diplomatic strategy for ending the program and the military options if that diplomacy fails.

The discovery of the new evidence, which one senior administration official cautioned was "very worrisome, but still not conclusive," came just as North Korea declared to the United States 11 days ago that it had completed reprocessing 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, enough to make a half dozen or so nuclear weapons.

Beijing: North Korea to Build Nuclear Missile

North Korea is poised to build at least one nuclear missile, according to The Sydney Morning Herald (thanks Daily Pundit):

North Korea is poised to build at least one nuclear missile, according to new Chinese intelligence, taking the crisis over its weapons program to a dangerous and alarming phase.

Gunfire on the Border

South Korean and North Korean soldiers exchanged machine gun fire across the Demilitarized Zone (search) Thursday morning, the South Korean military said. North Korea fired first with four shots at a South Korean army position near the town of Yonchon at 6:10 a.m (5:10 p.m. Wednesday EST). The South fired 17 rounds in response one minute later, said Maj. Lee of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

South Korea is not reporting any injuries.

Former SecDef Predicts War with NK This Year

Former Clinton defense secretary William Perry predicted today in a Washington Post article that the US could be at war with North Korea this year.

He also warned:

"The nuclear program now underway in North Korea poses an imminent danger of nuclear weapons being detonated in American cities,"

This author's opinion on Perry's statements are here.

North Korea News Roundup

Kate of Electric Venom has an excellent compilation of North Korean News items for review.

S. Korea: No Proof North Took Nuke Step

AP...

SEOUL, South Korea - South Korea (news - web sites) said Monday there is no proof that North Korea (news - web sites) has completed a key step toward the production of nuclear weapons, although the North reportedly claimed that it has.

The statement by Yoon Young-kwan, South Korea's foreign minister, was the latest in a series of conflicting reports on North Korea's nuclear activities. The communist nation expelled international inspectors in December, and the United States relies mainly on satellite images for clues about what is going on at its nuclear facilities.

"No scientific data or evidence has emerged to prove that North Korea started reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods at full scale or has completed the process," Yoon said in an interview with CBS radio in Seoul.

Yoon said South Korea and the United States were cooperating on efforts to obtain information about North Korea's nuclear activities.

N Korea 'reprocesses' nuclear rods

BBC:

North Korea is claiming to have reprocessed nuclear fuel rods that could produce enough plutonium for several atom bombs, according to a South Korean news agency.

It follows earlier reports from intelligence agencies that the process appears to be under way.

The US and South Korean governments have yet to confirm that North Korea is pushing ahead with the development of nuclear weapons.

N. Korea Says It Wants Nuclear Talks

AP:

SEOUL, South Korea - A North Korean envoy said Thursday his nation was ready for "both war and dialogue" and insisted on direct talks with the United States to resolve a nine-month-old nuclear standoff.

South Korean said Wednesday that the communist North has taken a key step toward building nuclear bombs by reprocessing a small number of spent nuclear fuel rods.

The report escalated a standoff that began last October when U.S. officials said Pyongyang admitted having a secret nuclear program, in violation of international agreements. Washington wants the North to abandon such programs.

"Our basic position is that we want to resolve the (nuclear) issue peacefully," North Korean negotiator Kim Ryong Song said Thursday before talks with South Korean delegates in Seoul. "But if outside forces ignore our position and try to use force, we will face them boldly and show our strength."

N Korean defector's nuclear claim

BBC:

The most high-profile defector from North Korea has said he was told in 1996 that the secretive state had already developed nuclear weapons.

Hwang Yang-jop, a former tutor to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, also said that Pyongyang signed a contract with Pakistan the same year to receive help in enriching uranium for its nuclear arsenal.

Mr Hwang's comments will add credence to United States intelligence reports that the North had developed a small number of nuclear weapons before it agreed to mothball its programme in 1994.

C.I.A. Said to Find North Korean Nuclear Advances

NY Times:

WASHINGTON, June 30 — American intelligence officials now believe that North Korea is developing the technology to make nuclear warheads small enough to fit atop the country's growing arsenal of missiles, potentially putting Tokyo and American troops based in Japan at risk, according to officials who have received the intelligence reports.

In the assessment — which they have shared with Japan, South Korea and other allies in recent weeks — officials at the Central Intelligence Agency said American satellites had identified an advanced nuclear testing site in an area called Youngdoktong. At the site, equipment has been set up to test conventional explosives that, when detonated, could compress a plutonium core and set off a compact nuclear explosion.

Some intelligence officials say they believe that the existence of the testing range is evidence that North Korea intends to manufacture much more sophisticated weapons that would be light enough to put onto its growing arsenal of medium- and long-range missiles.

Full article...

North Korea Warns U.N.

NewsMax.com

North Korea has warned the U.N. Security Council against being pressured by Washington to react on the nuclear crisis. An unofficial English translation of the warning was obtained by NewsMax from North Korean diplomats in New York City.

For the last two weeks, the Bush administration has tried to pressure the council to take up the matter.

All the U.S. efforts have been blocked by China, one of the permanent five members with veto power.

Full story »»

NK Threatens to Withdraw from Armistice

Www.Canada.Com:

North Korea threatened on Tuesday to abandon the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, and warned that it will take "merciless retaliatory measures'' in response to any economic blockade.

...

North Korea has recently stepped up its anti-U.S. rhetoric in an apparent attempt to force the United States to negotiate a dispute over the North's nuclear ambitions.

Full story »»

N Korea 'may test nuclear bomb'

News.Com.Au:

NORTH Korea has enough plutonium to make six to 10 nuclear weapons and could test such a weapon by the end of the year, a former US negotiator with the Stalinist state said in an interview published today.

"To the best of my knowledge, based on very well-informed Washington sources, North Korea's nuclear program is moving ahead very quickly," Kenneth Quinones was quoted as saying by the Daily Yomiuri.

"Basically, this means North Korea's reprocessing (of plutonium from spent nuclear fuel) is almost finished, or has finished. This means North Korea now has enough plutonium to make six to 10 nuclear weapons," he said.

"If North Korea wants to use their nuclear weapon as negotiating leverage, they must test it," said Quinones, who is now the Korean affairs director at the Washington-based private think-tank, International Center.

Full article...

Via Drudge.

U.S. and Japan at odds over nuclear project in North Korea

The US and Japan appeared at odds Friday over whether to complete an international nuclear power project in North Korea, with the US ambassador warning it could be scrapped if the North continues its pursuit of atomic weapons.

Tokyo suggested it wants to push on, despite the deepening standoff with the North.

The $4.6 billion project, backed by the US, the European Union, Japan and South Korea, would build two reactors for energy-starved North Korea. But it has been in limbo since the North admitted last year it had a secret nuclear program.

North Korea Vows Retaliation if Censured by U.N.

Reuters:

SEOUL - North Korea vowed on Friday to take "strong emergency measures" to retaliate if the United States succeeds in taking Pyongyang's nuclear programs to the United Nations Security Council. The North Korean threat came as South Korea reiterated its reluctance to put the issue before the Council at this time despite U.S. moves on Thursday for a statement condemning Pyongyang for reviving its nuclear weapons program.

A draft statement circulated by Washington would call on Pyongyang "to immediately and completely dismantle its nuclear weapons program in a verifiable and irreversible manner" and fully comply with international nuclear safeguard requirements, according to a copy of the text obtained by Reuters.

"In the event the United States takes the nuclear issue to the United Nations, we will respond with powerful emergency measures," said the communist state's ruling party newspaper.

Full article...

Japan: No Proof Of N. Korean Nukes

CNN:

TOKYO, Japan -- The Japanese government says it has no evidence to back up a newspaper report that North Korea already possesses several nuclear warheads capable of striking Japan.

"We don't have firm evidence and I believe that the United States probably does not either," government spokesman Yasuo Fukuda told reporters.

His comments followed a report in Friday's Sankei Shimbun newspaper that the United States had informed Japanese officials in about March that North Korea possessed several small warheads.

Full article...

US says North Korea already has several nuclear warheads: report

US authorities have unofficially told their Japanese counterparts that North Korea already possesses several small nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles, a news report said on Friday.

It is the first confirmation that Pyongyang has nuclear missiles that can immediately strike Japan, the Sankei Shimbun said, citing sources related to Japan and the US.

British Call For N. Korea Blockade

CNN

SEOUL, South Korea -- Britain has called on the international community to isolate North Korea, on the same day the communist country's state-run media said for the first time a nuclear program was in place.

British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon on Wednesday said ships and aircraft suspected of delivering materials for use in weapons of mass destruction should be intercepted.

The blockade, which Hoon envisaged would involve a coalition of 11 countries, should also be extended to vessels and aircraft suspected of carrying contraband such as drugs that could help finance North Korea's nuclear ambitions, he said.

Full article...

N. Korea renews nuclear threats

CNN:

North Korea has renewed threats to boost its nuclear weapons program, saying increasing U.S. pressure leaves it with no other option but to defend itself.

In a commentary carried on KCNA -- the official government news service -- Pyongyang said the United States was trying to force North Korea to disarm ahead of a military attack.

"The Iraqi war proved that disarmament leads to a war. Therefore, it is quite clear that the DPRK (North Korea) can never accept the U.S. demand that it scrap its nuclear weapons program first," the signed government statement said.

Full article...