The Command Post - Global Recon

India's Big Naval Move: INS Kadamba

The strategic maneuverings between India, China, Pakistan, Japan et. al. continue, with the Arabian Sea as an emerging focal point.

India’s giant new western naval base INS Kadamba was opened on May 31, with India’s Defence Minister saying that it would protect the country’s Arabian Sea maritime routes. Kadamba is an $8+ billion project that will become India’s 3rd operational naval base after Mumbai and Visakhapatnam, and the first base under the sole control of India’s Navy.

This is a move that matters at a global-historical level.

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Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2004-04-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

THE ETERNAL TRIANGLE (OR SQUARE?)

• Condoleezza Rice’s first trip to South Asia successful, at least compared to Colin Powell’s disastrous one last year. She managed to further the Bush administration’s agenda and improved relations with India and Pakistan simultaneously.

• Rice was able to get the centre-left government in India to agree to the sale of the much debated F-16s to Pakistan. Although she did not publicly push General Musharraf to hang up his uniform any time soon, she managed to extract more concessions from Pakistan over the A Q Khan nuclear proliferation angle.

• In addition to offering India advanced military hardware - including PAC-2 anti-ballistic missiles, F-16s and F/A-18 fighter aircraft - the United States signaled its intention to upgrade its bilateral relationship to one that is more ‘global in nature’. Despite India’s public protests over the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, it is quite certain that the deal had India’s tacit consent.

• Her visit, however, was marred by revelations that the United States had actually led its allies astray when it pinned some of Pakistan’s illicit nuclear deals on North Korea to bolster its position the six-party talks.

• The developments following Rice’s trip have led to the question: as they improve their bilateral relations, do India and the United States have an eye on China?

• The US has certainly made it clear that it plans to make India a regional superpower, which begs the question if there can be two? One of the ways the US plans to help do this is not only through the sale of weapons systems but through increased cooperation between the two countries militaries and especially in that region their navies.

Other Issues Include: Peeling the Skin off the Pakistani Onion; Peeling the Skin off India-Pakistan Relations; India, Energy, and Security; India - a Million Matinees Now; Keeping a Eye on Khan; The FBI is a Trusted Brand in Bangladesh; A Million Matinees in the Subcontinent, and much more.

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Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-02-22

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

NEPAL GOES DOWN - ADVANTAGE CHINA

• Nepal’s founding myth comes with a sting in its tail —- an old curse condemns the Shah dynasty to ten generations. King Gyanendra, who seized executive power and imposed a state of emergency this month, is the tenth generation. Even if the monarchy comes through the current crisis intact and prevails over the Maoists and abolitionists, it may not survive to the next generation; not least due to the rank unpopularity of Crown Prince Paras Shah, tales of whose misdemeanor are legion.

• While the Maoist rebels seized the opportunity to attempt to form an alliance against the monarchy, Nepal’s much-maligned politicians discharged themselves admirably by rebuffing the offer.

• Civil and political rights have been suspended, communication links severed and media censorship is in place. Mainstream newspapers have been publishing tongue-in-cheek commentaries about the political situation. There are very few bloggers reporting from Nepal; Blogdai’s NepalNow, Wagle’s United We Blog and Radio Free Nepal are among the active ones.

• International reaction has been on predictable lines —- India, Nepal’s ally by treaty, reacted sharply to Gyanendra’s move, calling off a scheduled South Asian Summit in Dhaka, and threatening to cut off military assistance to the King. The United States, Britain and a host of European countries recalled their ambassadors for consultation.

• China and Pakistan did not criticise the King, choosing instead to declare their policy of non-interference in Nepal’s domestic affairs. But it is unlikely that King Gyanendra could have pulled off this move without blessings from China; significantly, the Dalai Lama’s office in Nepal was closed down by the Nepalese government a few days before the emergency. Blogdai suspects that China has been in on this for some time.

• India has played key roles in Nepal’s previous political transitions —- in 1950 it helped free King Tribhuvan and his family from the grip of hereditary prime ministers who had usurped de facto power by the twentieth century. Some constitutional reforms were introduced but executive powers remained vested in the King. Again in 1989 India intervened in support of a popular demand for democracy that resulted in the King’s powers largely reduced. While King Gyanendra, like General Musharraf, has committed himself to a timeframe to introduce democracy, how India plays its cards will determine whether it will help finish the process towards Nepal’s democratisation that it started half-a-century ago.

Other Issues Include: Bangladesh slows down - advantage who?; The Kashmir bus speeds up; Khan celebrates his first year in retirement; India - a million matinees now.

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