|
|
Global Recon
February 28, 2005More on Lebanon Gov't [Updated -2-]With shouts of “Syria out!,” more than 25,000 flag-waving protesters massed outside Parliament on Monday in a dramatic display of defiance that forced the resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister and Cabinet two weeks after the assassination of an opposition leader. White House: Lebanon Events ‘An Opportunity’ The resignation of the Syrian-backed government in Lebanon is “an opportunity” for a new government that represents the country’s diversity, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Monday. BBC images of unfolding events From Reuters, a chronology of events in Lebanon since the assasnation of former Prime Minister Rafik-Hariri:
Lots of great commentary, over at Daily Pundit. Lebanese Prime Minister ResignsAt this hour, all cable television news outlets are reporting that Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karami is announcing the resignation of his entire government. (AP) Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karami announced the resignation of his pro-Syrian government Monday, two weeks after the assassination of his predecessor, Rafik Hariri, triggered protests in the streets and calls for Syria to withdraw its thousands of troops. February 27, 2005Iran, Russia Sign Nuke Deal
February 26, 2005Kyrgyzstan: Pre-election RoundupAs the actual vote quickly approaches, here is a roundup of what various media outlets are reporting:
Adapted from Registan.net Palestinians Arrest Two Bombing SuspectsPalestinian police arrested two suspected militants Saturday in connection with a suicide bombing that killed four Israelis at a Tel Aviv nightclub, acting on orders from Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to track down those responsible for what he called an act of sabotage. February 25, 2005Least 30 Injured - 5 Dead in Tel Aviv Suicide Bombing [Updated -4-]Breaking via FOX: An explosion has been heard on the boardwalk in Tel Aviv, according to the Haaretzdaily Web site and Israeli radio. More as it comes in. CNN header: Israeli police say an explosion in Tel Aviv Friday night was a terrorist act. Details soon. Few more details from MSNBC: An explosion rocked the Tel Aviv beachfront late Friday, wounding at least 20 people, Israeli media reported. The cause of the blast wasn’t immediately known. UPDATE: FOX headline is now reporting “several dead” The bomb exploded outside The Stage nightclub - Israel Army Radio is confirming that it was the work of a suicide bomber. AP is also reporting several deaths. UPDATE: Militants in the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, a violent group with ties to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah movement, said the Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah was involved in the attack. CNN is reporting 24 wounded, but no deaths. Now FOX is reporting three deaths. Israeli media said Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility. February 24, 2005Election Watch: Kyrgyzstan & TajikistanBoth Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hold parliamentary elections this weekend. Central Asian leaders are spooked by pro-democracy protests in Georgia and Ukraine—something that opposition groups have picked up on. Flashes of orange have been seen adorning protesters in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, and the situation in Kyrgyzstan is getting tenser with every passing day. Here is the latest from the region: Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Cross-posted from Registan.net (where the post is updated as more news comes in). Bush, Putin Agree on Nuke SafeguardsFox News reports that President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin are embracing new measures to combat nuclear terrorism and better safeguard nuclear arsenals:
From California Yankee. February 22, 2005Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-02-22Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn. NEPAL GOES DOWN - ADVANTAGE CHINA
Other Issues Include: Bangladesh slows down - advantage who?; The Kashmir bus speeds up; Khan celebrates his first year in retirement; India - a million matinees now. Earthquake Kills At Least 231 in Iran [Updated]A powerful earthquake toppled mud-built homes and flattened villages in central Iran on Tuesday, killing at least 231 people and injuring more than 1,000, state-run television reported. A senior official said the death toll could top 350. February 21, 2005Update on Southern IndiaThe tsunami has seemingly passed from the media radar (aside from the places that George 41 and Bill 42 are visiting), but for those interested, you can read a first-hand account of what one small group was able to accomplish. There is also more here. (Disclaimer: The subject of this post is my wife) Syria to Start Lebanon Troop Pullout - Huge Anti-Syria Protests in LebanonSyria has indicated it will start withdrawing some of its troops from Lebanon soon, but U.S. President George W. Bush insists it should “end its occupation” of its neighbour. Also: Thousands in Lebanon Protest Government
Danger For Iranian WebloggersThis is the latest story. And here is a link to the Farsi language blog that has taken on the responsibility of advocating for the release of Iranian webloggers from prison. Israel Releases Palestinian PrisonersIsrael on Monday began to release a first wave of 500 Palestinian security prisoners, fulfilling a promise it made at an Israeli-Palestinian summit meeting in Egypt earlier this month, where leaders declared an end to four years of bloodshed. February 20, 2005Russian Forces Kill Suspected MilitantsSecurity forces on Sunday stormed an apartment building in southern Russia where a small group of suspected Islamic militants had barricaded themselves, killing all the rebels, police said. February 19, 2005North Korea 'U-turn' on US talksThe BBC reports: A North Korean official has said his government no longer wants even bilateral talks with the United States over its nuclear weapons programme. Pyongyang had been demanding direct negotiations with the US for two years. Earlier this month, North Korea confirmed it had nuclear weapons and withdrew from discussions with its neighbours and the US. Hizbollah Tells Lebanese to Cool Anti-Syria LineReuters reports that Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Saturday that agitation against Syria’s grip on Lebanon after the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri could plunge the country into civil war:
February 18, 2005Earthquake Rattles IndonesiaThe Associated Press reports that a powerful earthquake rocked eastern Indonesia on Saturday. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage:
New Energy Currents: 2005-02-18February 2005 will be remembered - maybe - for the inauguration of the Kyoto Protocol, the world’s first international agreement to limit the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. Well, it’s not really the first, if you count the US-led Methane to Markets partnership - but come on, who wants to talk about the Bush Administration doing anything useful for the environment? No one would believe you anyway. However much the increased international pressure to Do Something about global warming changes the energy environment, treaties don’t actually invent anything, needless to say. New technologies that will enable us to continue enjoying our quality of life - and extend it to the 2 billion energy-starved souls living in least-developed countries around the world - are being developed as rapidly as possible, and some would say that they’re already ready for prime time. As different technologies begin to compete in earnest for the public’s attention, acceptance, and tax dollars, New Energy Currents will do its best to continue giving you a broad overview of developments in energy technology and policy. You can’t tell the players without a scorecard, as they (used to?) say. By John Atkinson, of chiasm. February 17, 2005About Those Drones ...Chester brings us up to speed on “The Technical Collection Game and the Strange Reports from Iran.” February 16, 2005North Korean Elites Celebrate Kim Jong-Il's Birthday by Feasting on Pheasant and VenisonMSNBC News reports on Kim Jong-Ils’ birthday celebrations from North Korea:
North Korea was marking the 63rd birthday of its “dear leader” Kim Jong Il on Wednesday with feasts of pheasant and venison for the capital’s elite amid heightened tension on the Korean peninsula over the communist state’s nuclear weapons programs. Kim’s birthday is a national holiday and festivities for residents of Pyongyang — the chosen elite allowed to live there only by being approved as loyal citizens to the regime—also were to include performances by circus and theater troupes, the North’s state-run TV reported Tuesday evening, monitored by South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. Those not among North Korea’s elite classes were reportedly given cold noodles and extra rations of alcohol. North Korea recently reduced rations for its starving population to 250 grams per person per day—the equivalent of two medium-sized potatoes—which is just half of the amount the World Food Program recommends as a minimum for subsistence. Press reports did not mention any public appearance by Kim Jong-Il himself. A recent report published in the Times of London noted growing speculation that Kim may have lost a behind-the-scenes struggle for power. Last November, Kim’s portraits, which had previously been treated like sacred icons, began disappearing from official venues. Mr. Kim has since failed to meet either of two congressional delegations that visted North Korea in January. More recently, North Korean radio has begun discussing the succession to power to one of Mr. Kim’s sons. Kim Jong-Il is the son of Kim Il-Sung, founder of North Korea’s Stalinist government. Mr. Kim was last seen by a foreigner on October 3, 2004. Other appearances mainly consisted of inspections of military units, sometimes accompanied by stock footage showing Mr. Kim surrounded by loyal and adoring soldiers. The Times reporters noted that in Mr. Kim’s recent appearances, his clothing appeared to be the same as that he had worn in previous appearances. Unknown Aircraft Fires Missile in Iran - State TVReuters reports that an unknown aircraft fired a missile on Wednesday in a deserted area near Iran’s southern port city of Dailam in Bushehr province, where the country has a nuclear power plant:
UPDATE: The Associated Press reports that the explosion may have been caused by a fuel tank dropping from an Iranian plane. A spokesman for Iran’s Interior Ministry said the blast was heard minutes after an Iranian airplane flew over the city and had not been caused by a hostile attack. From California Yankee. Syria and Iran To Build 'Common Front'Reuters reports that Iran and Syria said on Wednesday they will form a common front to face challenges and threats:
From California Yankee. Iran Will Have Knowledge to Build Atomic Bomb in Six MonthsThe Associated Press reports that Iran will have the knowledge to build nuclear weapons within six months:
From California Yankee. February 15, 2005Earthquake Shakes TokyoA 5.4 quake struck 80 miles northeast of Tokyo. The quake registered at 4:46 am (1946 GMT) with the epicenter in Ibaraki prefecture about 130 kilometers (80 miles) northeast of Tokyo with a focus 40 kilometers (25 miles) underground, the meteorological agency said. The report also notes that there is no threat of tsunami waves. February 14, 2005U.S. Plans Financial Squeeze of North KoreaThe New York Times <a
href=”http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/14/politics/14korea.html?”>reports that the Bush Administration is working with North Korea’s neighbors to squeeze the financially pressed regime’s sources of hard currency from foreign aid and trade. Although the announcement of the plan comes shortly after North Korea’s declaration that it possesses nuclear weapons and will end its participation in six-nation talks aimed at dismantling its nuclear program, the policy has been a subject of debate for years, and in the planning stage for months: In the months before North Korea announced that it possessed nuclear weapons, the Bush administration began developing new strategies to choke off its few remaining sources of income, based on techniques in use against Al Qaeda, intelligence officials and policy makers involved in the planning say. Military’s Role Still Uncertain The extent to which the new “tool kit” would include the use of the military remained unclear, although the use of ground forces is widely considered unlikely. President Bush has repeatedly stated that the United States has no intention of invading North Korea. The strategy is more likely to involve increased reliance on the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), an ad-hoc coalition of nations formed to halt the transfer of dangerous or sensitive technologies. In an interview with Fox News Sunday, James Lilley, the former U.S. Ambassador to China and South Korea, referred to North Korea’s economy as its “Achilles heel” and suggested that the administration would seek a low-key, coordinated approach with Japan, China, and South Korea. Former Secretary of State James A. Baker, who served under President Bush’s father, went further in a Sunday talk show, suggesting that U.S. forces might blockade North Korea, according to the Times report: On Sunday, former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, who served under Mr. Bush’s father when North Korea was making what the C.I.A. later concluded were its first two nuclear bombs, raised the possibility of a broad economic crackdown.
North Korea’s Cash Lifelines A 2003 MSNBC report first discussed growing sentiment within the Bush administration for constricting North Korea’s economic lifelines, rather than confronting its large military directly. Also in 2003, MSNBC estimated that North Korea’s main sources of foreign currency consisted of the following:
Legal Non-Military Trade, $600 Million per year North Korean ships have been a primary object of scrutiny by PSI member nations, which briefly stopped the North Korean freighter So San on its way to Yemen with a cargo of missiles. More recently, the Australian Navy seized the North Korean ship Pong Su after observing the vessel deliver a load of nearly-pure heroin to Australia’s remote southern coast. North Korea is suspected of earning $100 million from the sale of illicit drugs annually. The North is even reported to have brought heroin cultivation experts from Thailand to teach the regime’s farmers how to grow poppies. Although North Korean drugs have turned up in numerous countries, the main market is believed to be Japan. Last year, South Korean police reported seizing a large shipment of North Korean methamphetamine. In December, Turkish officials arrested two North Korean diplomats for possession of large amounts of Captagon, a synthetic amphetamine-type stimulant. North Korean diplomats have also been caught smuggling drugs in Russia, Germany, Egypt and Japan. Secret Service agents have spoken with grudging admiration of the quality of counterfeit $100 bills produced in North Korea, referring to them as “supernotes.” North Korea is also suspected of counterfeiting Japanese yen, and even of a $588 million dollar counterfeit Pachinko card scam that helped fund the North’s nuclear program. Cash remittances by pro-Pyongyang ethnic Koreans in Japan have also been an important source of funds, although they have decreased significantly in recent years. North Korea also receives millions per year in international aid, including approximately $200 million per year through the World Food Program, although amounts have decreased in recent years over donor fatigue and persistent questions about whether North Korea allows food aid to go to those in the greatest need. Personal Interest from President Bush Today’s New York Times article suggests that President Bush has taken a personal interest in the case of North Korea, primarily motivated by massive human rights violations in that country:
In the recent Bob Woodward book “Bush at War,” President Bush was quoted as saying, “I loathe Kim Jong Il.” South Korea’s Foreign Minister in Washington South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon is in Washington on a previously scheduled five-day visit, meeting with Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and other administration officials. News reports conflict over whether Vice President Dick Cheney asked Mr. Ban to deny a North Korean request for 500 tons of South Korean fertilizer (a request which followed a report from the South Korean Defense Ministry that North Korea had added 1,000 artillery pieces to its arsenal last year). The New York Times reports that Vice President Dick Cheney made the request to Mr. Ban, but in an interview with the Korea Times, the South Korean Foreign Minister denied that Mr. Cheney made such a request. The Chosun Ilbo noted South Korean “fears” that the new American policy would damage the planned Kaesong Industrial Park, in which South Korean corporations would build factories employing North Korean labor at just 3% of the cost of unionized South Korean workers. Separately, the paper speculated that the new North Korean announcement would favor “hard-liners” in the United States. On its editorial page, however, the paper all but declared the ruling party’s North Korea policy dead. The South Korean opposition, which had previously endorsed a watered-down version of the ruling Uri Party’s policy of appeasing and engaging with the North, has also moved toward endorsing a harder line. The opposition Grand National Party’s parliamentary floor leader recently called the Uri Party’s North Korea policy “useless” and blamed the ruling party for alienating the United States. Last week, the United States rejected a new North Korean demand for additional concessions from Washington, including direct bilateral talks. The Washington Post reports: North Korea demanded a bilateral dialogue with the United States Friday, a day after it declared itself a nuclear power, but the Bush administration quickly rejected the demand and insisted that Pyongyang return to six-party talks on its nuclear program. Japanese Reaction Although Japan has publicly stated that it will hold off on imposing economic sanctions on North Korea, the New York Times’s James Brooke reports that Japan has imposed another facially apolitical rule that essentially amounts to a ban on almost all North Korean ships from Japanese ports: Japan, meanwhile, performed a deft political kabuki today, urging his bellicose neighbor to join disarmament talks, while letting the clock run on a new law that will bar most North Korean ships from Japanese ports starting March 1. The report goes on to describe the specific impact that the ban would have on North Korea’s lawful trade with Japan—some of its critical to North Korea—such as highly profitable seafood exports and the used Japanese consumer goods North Korean officials hand out to reward their subordinates.
The move is also expected to squeeze North Korea’s other sources of income, such as the export of illegal drugs and counterfeit currency, and remittances sent by ethnic Koreans in Japan. Even the Chosen Soren, an organization of pro-North Korean residents in Japan, has recently suffered from losses of membership and revenue, and from Japanese decisions to pull the organization’s tax-exempt status. Japanese were enraged at recent revelations about North Korean kidnappings of their citizens in the 1970s and 80s, and more recently, when North Korea turned over the cremated bones of “abductees” that DNA tests proved were not in fact the abductees’ remains. All Eyes on China It is China, however, on which most of the attention has focused, because China supplies most of North Korea’s energy and is its largest trading partner. China recently forced North Korea to shut down a casino just inside North Korea’s border with China, after a local government official gambled and lost a large sum of public funds there.
This week, both the Chinese government and its media, quoting prominent academics, have criticized North Korea’s decision to pull out of the talks. Few doubt that China’s influence over North Korea is considerable; however, few observers believe that China wants to take any measure that would cause the North Korean regime to collapse. Among China’s likely fears are an increased mass migration of refugees onto its territory (beyond the 300,000 believed to be in China already), the rise of a united Korea as a strategic competitor, and the presence of a formerly Communist democracy on China’s border. February 13, 2005U.S. Drones Probe IranThe Washington Post explains that Iran’s UFOs are U.S. reconnaissance drones. In December, Iranians living along the Caspian Sea and on the Iraq border began reporting sightings of red flashes in the sky, streaks of green and blue, and low, racing lights that disappeared moments after being spotted. Iranian air force commanders identified the UFOs as U.S. drones. According to the Post, the U.S. has been flying surveillance drones over Iran for nearly a year to seek evidence of nuclear weapons programs and detect weaknesses in air defenses:
From California Yankee. February 10, 2005Saudis Cast Ballots in First Nationwide VoteFreedom and Democracy are on the march in the Middle East: Male voters converged at polling stations in the Riyadh (search) region on Thursday to participate in city elections, marking the first time Saudis are taking part in a vote that largely conforms to international standards. - Fox News Abbas Fires Security Commanders After Truce ViolationA positive action that actually supports Abbas’ words. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas fired top Gaza security commanders Thursday, Palestinian security officials said, hours after militants fired dozens of mortar shells and homemade rockets at Jewish settlements there. - Fox News N. Korea Admits to Nukes, Backs Out of Talks
February 09, 2005U.S. Pressures China to Reign in N. KoreaIn the wake of U.S. scientists’ conclusion that Libya recently obtained uranium that was enriched in North Korea, the New York Times reports that the Bush Administration has increased its pressure on China to force North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program. President Bush’s message was carried directly to Premier Hu Jin Tao himself by two officials of the National Security Council. China asked the Bush Administration to refrain from making provocative public statements about North Korea’s alleged proliferation while its officials make high-level inquiries in Pyongyang. In his inaugural and state-of-the-union addresses, President Bush’s comments about North Korea were restained, even mild, compared with his comments about Iran and Syria. The Times article also suggested that confirmation of the uranium transfers to Libya has fueled the administration’s impatience with the lack of progress in six-nation talks to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear program. A breakdown of the talks raises the possibility that President Bush could side with those who support regime change, by isolating North Korea to bring down what is left of its economy, or by encouraging internal dissent. According to the Times article, the new revelations about North Korean uranium found in Libyan possession have “energized” those who favor such measures if talks fail to convene and bear fruit in the near future. Officials quoted in the article also responded to a suggestion in last week’s Washington Post that Pakistan could have been the source of Libya’s uranium stocks: American and Asian intelligence officials say it is unclear whether North Korea knew that Libya was the ultimate destination for the chemical, called uranium hexafluoride. One senior official with access to the intelligence data said it was possible that the North Koreans only knew that it was transferring the fuel to members of Dr. Khan’s network. “We don’t know how much they produced, or if it was shipped elsewhere,” the official said. “It’s one of the questions we have to get answered.” The Times article quotes administration officials as saying that a profile of the isotopes in plutonium found on the Libyan containers matched samples known to come from Yongbyon, North Korea. The officials added that since Pakistan is not believed to have a source of plutonium other than North Korea, the presence of plutonium suggests a North Korean origin. There is a history of extensive collaboration between the North Korean and Pakistani nuclear weapons programs—including joint efforts at design, production, and testing—presumably ending with the recent exposure and dismantling of the Pakistan-based A.Q. Khan network. Revelations from the Khan network, in turn, led to a Libyan agreement to give up its nuclear weapons program. China, which supplies most of North Korea’s fuel, has recently demonstrated its ability to pressure North Korea on matters that are important to China. Letter, Purportedly from High-Level Dissenter, Attacks N. Korean RegimeThat’s the claim about the letter I print below, via Suzanne Scholte (scroll down) of the Defense Forum Foundation, America’s most prominent campaigner for North Korean human rights. It requires no explanation, only the obvious caveats that (1) there’s simply no way to verify the source, (2) this could very easily be something other than what it purports to be, and (3) the contents of the letter clearly serve the interests of those (like me, as a matter of full disclosure) who seek to destroy the North Korean one-party regime through increased economic pressure and political subversion. If authentic, the letter raises one more barrier to the economic and social reunification of the Koreas—North Koreans’ well-justified resentment that South Koreans are helping to prolong their suffering and enslavement. * * * * * Dear Friends:
We were able to obtain a copy of the original hand written letter that was sent by fax by a high ranking North Korean government official when he was visiting China to South Korea’s largest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo. I am pleased to share with you the translation that DFF’s special assistant, Mary Gohng, did of the letter that was published in the Chosun Ilbo on December 29, 2004. It is consistent with everything we have heard from defectors and recent refugees about the situation inside North Korea. Suzanne———————————————————— The judgment of North Koreans I currently work for one of the North Korea’s key [government] institutes. I apologize that I am not able to reveal the details of my identity, and I hope you understand that this is necessary in order to protect myself. I am now writing this letter despite the danger because South Korean government’s pathetic policy toward North Korea enraged me, and I felt that I must speak out for the future of Koreans. As the rest of the world is well-aware, 3 million people starved to death and 1.2 million were left wandering about the country during so called, “the Stride in Suffering,” between 1995 and 1998. As a result, North Koreans have turned away from Kim Jung Il, and no one has even the slightest lingering attachment left for him. The only thing remaining is a deep root of hatred toward him. Although I cannot disclose the details, I can assure you that a large number of anti-governmental forces exist within North Korea. A growing number of the elites are lying low waiting for the right time to come so that they can punish Kim Jung Il, the traitor of the Korean people. Others who share their views are also coming together for the same goal. In 1990, we had an excellent opportunity to overthrow Kim Jung Il when “the Stride in Suffering” began. Kim Jung Il was using extreme measures to suppress the citizens in order to sustain his control over the country causing utter confusion. He used the military to recklessly kill the innocent and put them in political prisoner camps. It is true in any history that the louder the citizens complain, the stronger the rebellious sprit grows. During “the Stride in Suffering” North Korea was in such chaos that every aspect of the country, including the politics, economy, and national security, broke down beyond a manageable realm, and many North Koreans left the country for China. What we really wanted during this time was that more North Koreans would leave for China so that that the international community would really pin down Kim Jung Il. If so, I believe even the cruelest Kim Jung Il would not have been able to withstand the pressure. However, South Korea and the international community supported North Korea, and the severe suffering started again for the anti-governmental forces in North Korea. North Korean defectors in China were repatriated and lost their lives in prisons or at open executions. It makes my blood boil to think about all the North Korean defectors who were dragged back to North Korea and had to face such miserable deaths. To make the situation worse, South Korea began its mission to save Kim Jung Il as if they were indebted to him. I have enough information to describe in detail about how the U.S. dollars and humanitarian relief goods were distributed, but I do not feel the need to do so. However, I would like to reemphasize the obvious fact that Kim Jung Il’s government has no interest in the welfare of its citizens whatsoever. Kim Jung Il wasted away the relief aids from other countries for the purpose of maintaining his power and never used it for our citizens. It appears that there is a movement within South Korea that attempts to beautify Kim Jung Il suggesting that he has made some positive changes. This is why I need to explain what happened in North Korea after “the Stride in Suffering.” The Economy Management Reform directives which came out in July, 2002 did nothing but to transfer the responsibilities of the government to the individuals. The actual market prices replaced the government distribution system which was useless and existed in name only. Businesses need a certain amount of freedom of discretion, which is not allowed in North Korea, and that is why there is no such thing as private business in North Korea. Some people manage to obtain the government’s permission to do business at public facilities and earn between 1 won and 3 won ($15 ~ $45) a month. The majority of the workers who cannot afford the bribery money to obtain the permission have no other choice but to continue to work under strict government control without being paid properly. Recently South Korean soap operas became popular in North Korea, and this triggered the house-searching frenzy by the government and tighter control measures on commuting routes. Despite the government’s restrictions, there are those who fight for more land in desperation. They manage to farm on lands as large as few thousand pyungs, but after paying the taxes for using the land there is hardly anything left, and the bitterness is growing fast amongst the farmers. Nonetheless, people who are able to farm any type of land are better off than others since they can at least gather something to eat. After giving up their crops for the mandatory contribution to the military and government officers, there is nothing left for the farmers. They are often forced to seek other means for survival, and end up stealing from their neighbors. Everyone has turned into a thief, and they steal from one another. Every fall, the farmers in North Korea are left only with empty ears of corn. I heard the harvest in Hwang Hae province is better this year, but there is also a report that the mandatory contributions to the military will increase. The farmers are already furious about this. The situation is not better for the military. The lack of food in North Korea is so serious that even the military is suffering. People call the military “pest forces,” the gangsters,” “thieves’ military” and “punitive forces” (this word originated from the Japanese punitive forces that oppressed Koreans during the Japanese occupation). They also call it “malnutrition forces” because of the widespread severe malnutrition in the military. Soldiers attack private homes and assault civilians every day. The public resentment toward the military is stronger than ever. Moreover, the morale within the military is on the brink of a collapse. As a hopelessly corrupted country, North Korea is accelerating toward its final destruction. Kim Jung Il’s cruelty has worsened in desperation to preserve his power. Torture and executions became more and more common. He strengthened the punishment for those who flee the country, but he is careful about the public because of the pressure from the international community. High-ranking officials in North Korea are well aware of what is going on in South Korea since North Koreans’ interest in information from the outside world has grown dramatically. These days, not only the high-ranking officers but also the mid-ranking officials and young people in North Korea listen to Radio Free Asia and gain information. We know who is helping Kim Jung Il and who is working hard for the freedom and human rights of North Koreans. I hope to see more North Koreans cross the border to China in protest against Kim Jung Il, but sadly they have known for a while that China and South Korea are indifferent about rescuing them, giving them the cold shoulder. North Koreans are trapped within their own country waiting to die either by starvation or torture. The anti-government forces and the North Korean officers who share the same goal are extremely unhappy with South Korea’s policy toward North Korea, and the hatred against the South Korean government is growing. Kim Jung Il is cornered and has nowhere to go. I am certain that no one in North Korea is even remotely fond of him in any way. I think his luck is running out even though he frantically tries to oppress the citizens with military forces, scaring them with guns and knives. The soldiers can see that their families are starving to death. If a soldier who has a head on his soldier, how could he possibly perceive all this as normal? I think I have said enough to help you realize what is necessary in order to tear down Kim Jung Il’s regime and liberate North Koreans who trust you as brothers and sisters in the worst of times as these. Kae Sung Industrial District is nothing but a channel to bring in foreign currency for Kim Jung Il, who is constantly running out of money. This is also true about the Keum Kang Mountain Tour project. Kim Jung Il needs South Korea’s money, and the success of the relationship between North and South will depend on how much money he gets. In other words, it will depend on how satisfied “Our General” is. The more money he gets, the better the North-South relations will be, and vice versa. Note that this is not about the relationship between North Korea and South Korea, but rather the relationship between Kim Jung Il and South Korea. There is no other way to save North Koreans from their misery without pressuring Kim Jung Il to the point of suffocation. We need to cut off the financial support in order to dismantle the Liberation Army and weaken North Korea’s intelligence agency. If the U.S., Japan and South Korea gather their resources to pressure Kim Jung Il, he will have to choose between the collapse and the reformation, that is to open up. I plead with you again to consider the anguish of North Korean who live like slaves. Someday, the just judgment of North Koreans will be against those who help Kim Jung Il. Thank you. Rice Warns IranU.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Wednesday that Iran must live up to its international obligations to halt its nuclear program or “the next steps are in the offing.” February 08, 2005Sharon/Abbas Meet - Other UpdatesThe Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas met with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel today and afterward described the talks as “the beginning of a new era.” More… Abbas Declares End to Violence: PALESTINIAN President Mahmoud Abbas today proclaimed a formal end to fighting with Israel after more than four years of bloodshed. February 07, 2005Israelis, Palestinians Agree to Cease-FireIsraeli and Palestinian leaders said they will declare a formal end to more than four years of fighting during a summit Tuesday in this Egyptian resort — a breakthrough in Mideast peacemaking that comes after both sides also accepted invitations to meet separately with President Bush at the White House. February 06, 2005List of Polish Spies Leaked On The InternetA list of 240,000 Polish spies and collaborators was leaked onto the Internet and spread like wildfire through sites. Some sites have even turned it into a searchable database. Prosecutors said Friday they are investigating the leak of a government index of communist-era secret police files that has landed on the Internet, creating a frenzy among Poles scrambling to find out if their names are on the list. "This thing is huge. We have recorded around 100,000 Internet searches a day for the list, which is 10 times the number looking for sex," Piotr Tchorzewski, who works at Poland's biggest Internet portal Onet, told Rzeczpospolita daily. Tipped by: Slashdot Originally posted at Diggers Realm
February 05, 2005North Korea Threatens U.S. Bases; South Korea Drops North as 'Main Enemy'North Korea will turn U.S. military bases in the region into a “sea of fire” if war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, North Korean media on Friday quoted a communist officer as saying. The North’s state-run news media highlighted the comment hours after South Korea released a new defense policy paper that revealed a U.S. reinforcement plan to dispatch 690,000 troops and 2,000 warplanes if war breaks out in Korea. Most U.S. Army personnel in Korea are presently stationed within twenty miles of the Korean DMZ, within range of thousands of North Korean artillery pieces. Much of the North Korean artillery is sited inside underground roll-in / roll-out emplacements. Other U.S. installations are located in the middle of crowded residential areas in the South Korean cities of Seoul, Taegu, and Pusan. For the first time, the South Korean Defense Ministry’s annual white paper does not list North Korea as its “main enemy.” Although attitudes among South Koreans have grown increasingly pro-North Korean and anti-American, the South Korean government recently asked the United States to slow down the planned withdrawal of one-third of the U.S. forces from South Korea. Some South Koreans want to keep U.S. forces in their country to act as a “trip wire” in the event of a North Korean attack. Others fear the economic impact of U.S. troop withdrawals. Others want the troops to remain near the DMZ to restrict U.S. options. They believe that without thousands of U.S. troops in North Korean artillery range, the United States would be free to consider attacks against North Korean nuclear facilities. American troops in South Korea have recently been the victims of a spate of violent assaults. Recent polling data suggest that the U.S. defense contribution to South Korea, which, according to the Cato institute, costs U.S. taxpayers $15-20 billion annually, has resulted in little appreciation from the South Korean people. According to one survey last year, more South Koreans consider the U.S. the greatest threat to their nation’s security than North Korea. In the event of war between the U.S. and North Korea, 20% of South Koreans say their country should take the North’s side; another 30% were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of South Koreans were disappointed that the Iraqi Army did not fight harder outside Baghdad, more than twice the number who said they were pleased with the quick Iraqi collapse. February 04, 2005Wreckage Of Missing Afghan Airliner FoundAuthorities have found the wreckage of an airliner missing in Afghanistan since Thursday. VOA: Security officials say the Kam Air Boeing 737 was found Friday near Kabul, the Afghan capital. It was not immediately clear if any survivors were found. February 03, 2005Snipers In Mexico Shooting Across Border At Border Patrol AgentsThis is just out of control and the Mexican government better do something. I don't think the American people are going to put up with this much longer. They may sit idly by with the war on drugs and this illegal alien mess and just bitch about it, but when our agents are being sniped at across the border there will be serious action, not just bitching. Snipers working as "lookouts" for drug traffickers and illegal-alien smugglers are targeting U.S. Border Patrol agents from vantage points across the U.S.-Mexico border. Tipped by: Lonewacko Originally posted at Diggers Realm
DoctorZin on the Bush Iran StrategyI believe the issue the administration intends to focus on is human rights in Iran. Just part of a lengthy analysis. Read the rest. February 02, 2005Scientists: N. Korea Sold Uranium to LibyaThe New York Times is reporting that U.S. scientists now believe that North Korea was the source of enriched uranium recovered from Libya, a state long suspected of links to numerous terrorist groups: Scientific tests have led American intelligence agencies and government scientists to conclude with near certainty that North Korea sold processed uranium to Libya, bolstering earlier indications that the reclusive state exported sensitive fuel for atomic weapons, according to officials with access to the intelligence. The determination, which has circulated among senior government officials in recent weeks, has touched off a hunt to determine if North Korea has also sold uranium to other countries, including Iran and Syria. The sales would have pre-dated Libya’s December 2003 agreement to sever its links to terrorism and abandon its WMD development programs. The report closely follows a sudden and unexplained recall of the U.S. Ambassador to South Korea from Seoul to Washington for consultations with Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. Meanwhile, top officials of the National Security Council have flown to Asia to brief U.S. allies in the region. The new findings appear to confirm earlier reports of North Korean nuclear transfers to Libya. Information from Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan’s exposed nuclear network also suggests that North Korea had a highly enriched uranium program since at least 1997, and that it had since sold Pakistan an unknown amount of highly enriched uranium hexafluoride. President Bush is expected to discuss North Korea during tonight’s State of the Union address. The latest report may add urgency to the administration’s search for a solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis. The administration’s publicly stated policy is to pursue six-nation disarmament talks, but diplomacy has produced no significant progress thus far, and North Korea has refused to participate in the talks since June 2004. Others, reportedly including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, are believed to hold little hope that talks with resolve the crisis and privately favor regime change through a combination of economic pressure and political subversion. A new law, the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004, appropriates $2 million for “such actions as may be necessary to increase the availability . . . of sources of information not controlled by the Government of North Korea, including . . . radios capable of receiving broadcasts from outside of North Korea.” Congress is working with other government agencies on ways to carry out this provision. A 1994 disarmament agreement with North Korea collapsed after the United States accused North Korea of violating the agreement, known as the Agreed Framework. The Clinton Administration, which signed the agreement with North Korea, had also suspected North Korea of violating it since at least 1999. In 2001, the new Bush Administration ordered a policy review, concluded that North Korea had violated the agreement, and halted deliveries of fuel oil to North Korea. North Korea then expelled all IAEA inspectors and unilaterally withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). U.S. negotiators say that their North Korean counterparts later admitted that Pyongyang had an undeclared uranium enrichment program, which would violate the North’s NPT obligations—obligations it had reaffirmed in the 1994 agreement. Pyongyang has since denied making the admission. The latest report conflicts with the beliefs of some North Korea experts that North Korea is unlikely to supply nuclear materials to terrorists or their sponsors. Former Clinton (and later, Bush) administration negotiator Jack Pritchard, who strongly favors offering Pyongyang expanded trade and diplomatic relations in exchange for North Korea’s agreement to halt its nuclear programs, recently told Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun that a North Korean sale of nuclear material to terrorists would cross a “red line” for the Bush Administration. Another strong Bush Administration critic, Selig Harrison, has questioned the administration’s evidence of a North Korean uranium enrichment program and downplayed fears that North Korean transfers of nuclear material pose a proliferation risk: “The North Koreans said they would never allow such a transfer to al-Qaida or anyone else.” In December 2003, Libya agreed to turn its nuclear materials over to the United States, which maintains them at a Department of Energy facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. That agreement closely followed an interception of Libyan-bound centrifuge parts by member states of the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led coalition created to combat WMD proliferation. It also followed Libya’s 2002 acceptance of responsibility for the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, and its agreement to compensate the families of those killed in the attack. Before the December 2003 agreement, and at the time North Korea allegedly sold the materials to Libya, Colonel Moammar Khadaffy’s regime was considered a generous state sponsor of terrorism. According to this Heritage Foundation report: Libya is one of seven regimes listed by the State Department as state sponsors of terrorism. The country has a long history of support for terrorist groups in the Middle East and more than thirty terrorist groups worldwide. Libya provided arms, funding, and training for a wide variety of Palestinian terrorist groups (Fatah, the Palestine Liberation Front, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, and the Abu Nidal group), as well as the Kurdistan Workers Party, the Colombian terrorist group M19, the Red Brigades in Italy, and assorted other terrorist groups in Japan, Turkey, Northern Ireland, Thailand and elsewhere. Of more recent and greater concern is Libya’s recent $12 million payment to the Filipino terror group abu-Sayyaf, described by Libya as a “ransom” payment for several foreign hostages. Abu Sayyaf is closely tied to al-Qaeda, although it has since been virtually destroyed by the Filipino Army, working with soldiers of the 1st Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group, operating from Torii Station, Okinawa, Japan. UPDATE: The story went unmentioned in the SOTU. More updates, including IAEA skepticism and my own comments, here. February 01, 2005Zdravstvuite Russia! 2005-02-01Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on the enigma that is Russia, via Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended. Joel is a veteran of the Gulf War, where he worked in an intelligence capacity. He speaks Russian, and has worked in several of the former Soviet satellites. TOP TOPICS
Other Topics Today Include: investors holding off in Russia, 2004 domestic growth, pay raise for troops, shrinking population, final governor elections, end to soviet era benefits, Beslan parents block highway, sappers check roads, Russia-Chechnya power sharing, Nalchik gun battle, Finns learn how to bribe, US asylum to Alyona Morozava, anxiety over Dr. Rice hawkish stance, Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, secret cities Bird Flu Jumps From Human To HumanKeep an eye on this. From the Guardian. A teenage girl has become the 11th victim of bird flu to die in Vietnam inside a month while a Cambodian woman with symptoms of the disease was last night admitted to hospital in a critical condition. It has raised fears that bird flu may be starting to appear as a human pathogen and escalated concerns over the extent of the threat posed by the disease. |