The Command Post - Global Recon - North Korean Double Cross Provokes Japanese Crisis

December 15, 2004

North Korean Double Cross Provokes Japanese Crisis

North Korea has warned the imposition of economic sanctions by Japan would be treated as a declaration of war and that the Pyongyang regime would "immediately react to it with powerful physical methods".
In a statement broadcast yesterday by North Korea's state news agency, a foreign ministry official also suggested sanction threats by "Japan's ultra-right forces" were hardening Pyongyang's resistance to rejoining international talks over its alleged nuclear weapons.

Powerful interests in Japan's governing Liberal Democratic Party and the Diet are pressuring Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to freeze trade and aid in retaliation for North Korea's latest breach of trust in the "abductees" affair.
[...]
One of 13 people the North Koreans admit to abducting, Ms Yokota was 13 when she was taken from Niigata province in 1977. Pyongyang claims she grew to adulthood and married a local, but later died.

Last month North Korea returned several photos of Ms Yokota and a box of ashes they said were hers. Japanese scientists provoked a furious reaction when they reported DNA tests showed the remains were of two people, but neither was Ms Yokota.

In retaliation, the Japanese Government is likely to cancel a 125,000-tonne shipment of food and medical aid to North Korea – the second half of a consignment Mr Koizumi promised in June – but has so far resisted calls to impose economic sanctions.
Japan is North Korea's third-biggest trading partner, behind China and the South. Last year exports to Japan earned the North Koreans Y20.1 billion ($250million) of badly needed hard currency. But Mr Koizumi is under pressure, including from former party secretary general and his favoured successor Shinzo Abe. Mr Abe said yesterday it was "meaningless" to continue negotiating with North Korea.

Posted by Alan Brain at December 15, 2004 10:02 AM | TrackBack

Comments

"powerful physical methods" would initially be at sea, where the Norks are outgunned by a US-supplied Japanese navy.

Would the next step be nuclear? Brinkmanship seems to be Kimmy's long-suit, but he's never been less than ham-fisted, constantly miscalculating his opponents (including China).

Speaking of which, I'm not sure China wants a nuclear exchange that close to home, either. Kimmy could end up getting spanked by the whole neighborhood. Is this really want he wants?

Tough talk which goes nowhere will label Shorty as a paper tiger. I don't think he wants that. The alternative is too ugly to imagine.

Posted by: torpedo_eight at December 16, 2004 08:56 AM

Japan has always been a key in hastening economic collapse of DPRK. Something not mentioned in this article is that Japan has always been the DPRK's #1 source of hard currency, largely through Korean-owned pachinko parlors. In recent times, though, second and third generation participation in Chosen Soren (a DRPK-sympathetic Korean organization in Japan) has waned, straining the cash cow. This has been a key motivator in the DPRK's agressive marketting in weapons and drugs of late.

I don't see how this can be much more than empty threats. If an actual state of war were to be initiated Japan would have the excuse it needed to shut off all the pachinko money. As much as ROK and PRC hate Japan, neither of them could afford to economically isolate themselves from Japan over something as trivial as this.

Posted by: submandave at December 16, 2004 12:13 PM

The Norks would not dare to attack Japan by any military means. Japan is protected by US forces. Furthermore, an attack on Japan would lead Japan to change its military stance to much more offensive (they are starting this already).

Nuking them would be completely suicidal. The US woulde probably turn the whole country into glass as a result - certainly there would be no more government in North Korea and whatever is left of its rotten cities would be blown away.

Furthermore, everyone knows all of this. The psychopath running North Korea may be evil, but he isn't stupid and he wants to live (he spent the duration of the Iraq war in one or more of the 16000 underground facilities in North Korea, just in case we tried a decapitation attack).

North Korean diplomacy consists of nothing but insults and outrageously exaggerated threats.

But they certainly do remain dangerous, not because they could nuke Japan, but because they may sell a nuke or two to terrorists would would smuggle it in an nuke a US city while preserving North Korea's apparent innocence.

Which is why we probably have a policy of nuking anyone that could have given nukes to terrorists if we get nuked - at least I hope we have such a policy. Of course, that wouldn't stop China or Russia, but there are other issues to deter them.\ This is also the reason for the new policy of pre-emptive warfare. It's hard to deter proliferators providing weapons to terrorists - so it is better to start denuclearizing the dangerous countries, b

Posted by: John Moore ( Useful Fools ) at December 17, 2004 12:55 AM

The mad dwarf is a pimple on the ass of asia. He will be his own demise, my bet.

Posted by: Elvis at December 22, 2004 05:25 PM