Can't say we weren't warned!

Hmm if we ignore asia long enough i wonder how hot it will get over there. Let the norks rant for another decade without aid, move our troops out of the corrupt lands of the ROK, bolster japan with a significant millitary force of thier own after norks fire off some more test missles, and have a massive selloff of our 2000 millitary hardware to taiwan right as we upgrade all of our planes and boats.

Let simmer for another 5 - 10 years.

Viola WWIII in asia, should be a hellova smackdown.

To me it seems that the gamble is about China's emerging economy.

My hope is that as China's standard of living skyrockets the chinese themselves become less and less enamored of the old guard ChiComs and deal with them internally.

Look at the difficulty China is having with the folks in Hong Kong. A military victory in Taiwan would be hard enough to obtain, then they'd have to face a least a generation of people who absolutely hated Peking. It just isn't that simple.

So let's continue to wrap mainland china in a web of money and prosperity because that will do more to erode the power of the old line commies than just about anything else.

Intelligent comments re: this thesis are welcomed.

Hmm, throwing more money at the Chicoms will make them go from Communism straight to Fascism, imho.

The Chicoms are holding excercises in a province right across from Taiwan right now, and the US is coming in with 7 (!) carrier battle groups, for joint excercises with Taiwan right under their nose. They can't handle 7, in ten years, yes, but not now. So....

Almost a generation hence. Today's ruling group will long since be out of power.

See, inter alia: Tempest, teapot.

China just looms, doesn't it? The country has been killing off its baby girls for a long time and quite apart from the other points raised I often wonder what it will mean for the rest of us when they hit that point where there simply aren't that many women anymore. Of course there's a huge amount of trafficking in women in Asia and moreover I wouldn't put it past the Chinese government to try to grow warriors in test tubes or whatever, but you can't help feeling that country is facing internal crises not readily fixed by any kind of theoretical approach or easily contained within its borders forever either.

- marymcl

The downward spiral of the female population due to abortions and other means of removing the non male births in china has already started an interesting trend. Read up a while back on some korean blogs that chinese farmers were buying korean wives for about 200-500$ from north korean families. This may stem the tide for a while but eventually if the male birth only tradition continues they may have to resort stranger methods of aquiring wives. Or the China of 2050 may be a nation of horny bachlors with nowhere to turn.

V-man, I'm not suggesting that we throw money at them, I am suggesting that as the economy grows and the standard of living for the average chinese climbs, it will be much, much harder to impose autocratic rule.

Right now I'd say that china is probably closer to the indonesian style crony capitalism than pure marxism

Yep. I agree with skip.

As a matter of fact, since 80% of population still lives off the land so to speak, the rising standard of living will turn the country inside out as cities simply will not be able to support the influx of folks looking for their slice of the pie. In any case - it will all come to a head in October 2008 (after Beijing Olympics) when Chinese will have to take stock of their funds and there is no more "need" to improve the facade... Bottom line, Taiwan will be the least of China's problems...

BTW, I did not see any lack of persons of female persuasion in China when I was there last September, and I was as far in as Karamay City (look it up ;-)

I DO NOT know the demographics of the child bearing population, but 1 Billion People (+) Total seems to be a huge base line from which to expect a decline. (1/2 or 1/4 or whatever ?? = child-bearing Females).

You all kid yourselves. China will look like modern Europe in the future. As the Chinese have the money to provide healthcare and other functions of a welfare state, the state will have to provide it. And as the people's voice grows, it will drown the voice of the army, and eventually we can hope for a Chinese army to rival Europe's (tongue in cheek).

well this is certainly going to speed up the war on terror.

Skip:

1. China's problems are twofold: A rising economy is creating tensions between the increasingly prosperous cities and still poor countryside. These tensions, in turn, make the government rely on hyped-up nationalism to create a sense of unity.

2. This nationalism, ironically, limits the government of Chinas maneuvaring room on Taiwan. They cannot rely entirely on a rising living standard for legitimacy, yet they cannot stop the economic growth that alone makes their country modern and removes the danger of food shortages (remember the great leap forward? They do.) even if they wanted to. So, they have tension among the population, and capitalism has weakened if not destroyed the peoples loyalty to the Communist party. Nationalism is how they can cement public loyalty, and the people see an independent Taiwan as US interference in their internal affairs.

3. I would not trust a public announcement about the 2020 timetable from a country who's most well known strategist wrote "deception is essential in war". I think China will be ready to take Taiwan much earlier than that, and their model will probably be something like the German invasion of Norway in 1940, rather than a Chinese version of D-Day.

Anyway, that's my $.02's worth:)

The big question is whether China's Old Guard believes its in their best interests to get into an nuclear exchange with the US, for any move to acquire Taiwan by force will trigger a confrontation the likes of which we have never seen.

In statements to our military attaches, they've already directly threatened LA, you have to assume there's a faction within the military that believes an exchange is not only feasible, but winnable.

Ignore for a moment the fact that China would not survive a nuclear shitstorm, it's not a question of logical thinking, it's a function of perception. The Japanese believed they could strike at Pearl Harbor, sink our carriers and we'd sue for peace. It was dead wrong, but that was the perception amongst the military ruling elite. We are facing much the same scenario here. An old and aging leadership relying on the advice of the military who believes they can whack the US and return China to former greatness.

The Free Market is actively undermining their goals, as more of the country slips into the middle class. If they don't move soon, more and more of the population is not going to want to lose what they have (as opposed to communism, where no one has a pot to piss in) and the old regime is going to be moved to the discount rack.

I think they have to make up their minds in the next 5 years or let it go.

With that in mind, do you really want Kerry in there when it happens? For God's sake, think hard.

When looking at a possible China/Taiwan engagement....one has to consider a few things....

1) Currently China has neither the military capability to move the vast numbers of troops it would need to take and hold Taiwan, (currently they can barely move bout 1 division via sealift...just barely)

2) As to their naval capabilities...once again is found somewhat lacking...since an overwhelming amount of their ships are obsolete and non-functioning classes from as far back as WW2. Without even a moderate real navy (blue water).. any such attempted amphibious assault would be mincemeat for a Taiwan/US forces response

3) Their lack of any real heavy airlift for airborne operations and follow-on force movement would effectively hamper any plans they were prepared to make

4) When one takes into account they vast amount of their military is still using outdated equipment and made up of poorly trained regional conscripts...it is reasonable to assume that they'd be hard pressed to field any sizable force with any sort of tactical flexiblity

5) Most important is the fact that China wants Taiwan in one piece or relitively one piece....which rules out Chinas nuclear options...although China does posses a large amount of conventional missles capable of hitting targets inside Taiwan.

Now with that said, too many varibles remain to be to absolutely clear...Level of US response, Capability of Taiwanese military (which is quite good), S. Korea's response if any (although it's safe to assume they'd be somewhat silent fearing possible Chinese response against them), Japans SDF capability at that point (which is moving steadily towards greater capability and for which un-nerves China in part), also it is rumored that Taiwan has a certain nuclear capability, especially in the realm of ballistic missle defense (akin to the old nuclear tipped Nike' rockets the US used to field), and even the possibility of Vietnam getting involved...on Taiwans side in this (since China, Taiwan and Vietnam are currently disputing each others claims over minerla rights in the S. China sea among other areas). While China currently lacks a capability to project naval airpower as the US does via super carriers, they do have at least 3 planned and designed on the drawing boards...with one currently being built.

The real possibility of a conflict lessens every day as China moves slowly towards a capitalist society but that does not negate it...especially if the old hardliners in Beijing decide to take a gamble...but who knows.....constructive critism is welcomed on this

Terlizzi999:

Here is the best case I could make for a successful Chinese attack:

1. Special forces/5th columnists hit Taiwan's command and control centers, airfields, civilian and military leadership, mobilization centers, ports, air defense and harbor defense units, barracks, etc.

2. Mass salvos of conventional missiles hit the same targets and add to the confusion.

3. Troops hidden in civilian ships erupt onto the ports, airborne troops start to arrive in areas where air defenses were successfully suppressed.

4. Reinforcements and heavy weapons, already at sea, head for the beachheads. One airfield is left untouched for Taiwan's leaders to flee (and propaganda will announce they did).

1-4 bypasses many of the disadvantages you mentioned. China can field enough high quality divisions to bring this off. They do NOT need Taiwan intact as much as they need to satisfy the nationalist aspirations of their people.

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