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February 19, 2004
Iran Elections Tomorrow

In addition to the Iran news roundup below, Patrick Belton has a good collection of links to mainstream media pieces on the election.

Interesting opinion piece in the Arab News:

The almost certain victory of the hard-liners today will therefore not be taken by the government as an unreserved endorsement of their policies. It is 25 years since the revolution brought the conservatives to power. The voice of a new generation of Iranians cannot simply be ignored.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, the Nobel Peace laureate is not going to vote:
"I cannot tell people to vote or not to vote, but I will not vote because I do not know any of the candidates who have been allowed to run," said Ms. Ebadi, a human rights lawyer. "I would have voted if I knew and trusted the candidates."

But the NYT thinks a low turnout inspired by protesters will only help the hardliners:

Opponents of President Khatami are hoping that conservatives will predominate among those who are motivated to turn out, and are are confident that the lack of enthusiasm among in the reform camp will secure their victory.

Which will most likely mean the beginning of the end of the reform movement:

A hardline win could stop in its tracks a seven-year experiment to reform the 25-year-old Islamic state that saw lively political debate and some relaxation of strict social codes in the oil-producing nation of 66 million people.

Posted by Michele at February 19, 2004 09:04 PM | TrackBack
Comments

"Which will most likely mean the beginning of the end of the reform movement:

A hardline win could stop in its tracks a seven-year experiment to reform the 25-year-old Islamic state that
saw lively political debate and some relaxation of strict social codes in the oil-producing nation of 66 million
people. "

I know what you're saying here Michelle, and I'm not arguing with the underlying premise, but I'm uncomfortable with the way it's worded. I believe that the urge to reform, or better yet, the urge to get out from under draconian rule, has reached critical mass in Iran. The movement might change shape, but I don't see it dying.

Or, in the long run, losing.

The same forces that want to hold the people down are the ones trying to acquire nuclear weapons, and that, plainly and simply, is not going to be permitted.

Posted by: jeffers at February 20, 2004 02:17 AM

Jeffers,

What makes you think that a democratic Iran will not want Nukes for its protection? Just because you embrace democracy does not mean peace ya know!

Posted by: NobodyNeedsToKnow at February 20, 2004 05:10 AM

NNTK As per usual bent, your 5th grade reading skills give you away. READ. He said nothing about democratic Iran wanting nukes.

Posted by: Cap'n DOC at February 20, 2004 07:32 AM

No, in this context, I have no objections to any stable democracy acquiring nuclear weapons. I don't think we can permit dictatorships to have them though. The implications of their use is much too severe to be controlled by one person or even a handfull.

However, in the larger picture, I'd like to see them all go away. Chernobyl's not much in the news anymore, but the people who live there definitely understand, in real live, day to day terms, just what a 25,000 year halflife really means.

Posted by: jeffers at February 20, 2004 11:33 AM

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