February 17, 2004
Iran Roundup
Some stories pertaining to Iran from the past few days:
This story discusses the quite risky step taken by Iranian reformers in criticizing the Supreme Religious Guide, Ayatollah Khamenei:
In a daring move, more than 100 reformist MPs have accused Iran’s supreme leader of trampling on freedom and basic rights.
The MPs, who include deputy speaker Mohammad Reza Khatami, have sent a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticising his support for the disqualification of about 2,400 candidates in the parliamentary elections due to be held on Friday.
It is extremely rare that people publicly criticise Khamenei, who is regarded by his supporters as being incapable of error.
“The popular (1979) revolution brought freedom and independence for the country in the name of Islam, but now you lead a system in which legitimate freedoms and the rights of the people are being trampled on in the name of Islam,” the MPs said in the letter.
“Institutions under your supervision, after four years of humiliating the elected parliament and thwarting (reform) bills, have now deprived the people of the most basic right – the right to choose and be chosen,” the letter said.
The letter was sent to Khamenei on Monday. It was not expected to be published in Iranian newspapers.
An MP who signed the letter, Reza Yousefian, said Khamenei has not reacted by this afternoon and he and his colleagues in the outgoing parliament did not expect him to react.
“The state-media have ignored, and will ignore, the letter because the rulers don’t want the nation even to hear criticism of Khamenei. But who doesn’t know in this country that freedom has been slaughtered in the name of Islam by few unelected clerics,” he said.
But President Khatami turns the other cheek:
Reformist President Mohammad Khatami on Monday urged Iranians to turn out and vote in parliamentary elections this week to prevent hard-liners from winning, even if the mass disqualification of pro-reform candidates meant the elections were not fair.
“What has happened has satisfied some and angered many others, but this anger should not push people not to take part in the elections,” the embattled president said in a statement carried by the official news agency IRNA.
“Many people have the feeling that in many constituencies, they cannot vote for their preferred candidate. But with a little tolerance, they can search to find those candidates who are closest to their views,” Khatami wrote, adding: “Even if they cannot send the person they want to the Majlis, they can prevent those they do not want from entering.”
In a clear reference to religious hard-liners, he said “nonparticipation in elections would allow a minority to take control of the destiny of the country.
“We must fight with all our strength to defend religious democracy,” said the president.
Other reformers are giving up on the system:
A leading Iranian dissident has launched a new attack on the country's clerical establishment. In an open letter, jailed academic Hashem Aghajari said efforts to reform the system of government had failed and he called for passive resistance.
Mr Aghajari made the comments just before the 20 February elections from which hardline clerics have excluded thousands of pro-reform candidates.
The reformist camp has conceded it is poised for defeat at the polls.
Mr Aghajari said that organising an "unfree election" marked an end for hope of reforms from within.
He blamed reformist President Mohammad Khatami for lacking the "will and courage" to bring about the change that he said most Iranians wanted.
He said the current generation should be given the right to choose its own structure of government and called for "passive resistance" to what he described as totalitarianism.
Mr Aghajari has long been a critic of the establishment. He was sentenced to death two years ago after he questioned the clergy's right to rule.
The verdict sparked weeks of student demonstrations in his support and the death sentence was later quashed by the supreme court.
Meanwhile, Iran has pledged to sell nuclear fuel to other members of the international community. But when it comes to the question of Iran's nuclear ambitions, the news is unsettling:
The Iranian government, confronted with new evidence obtained from the secret network of nuclear suppliers surrounding Abdul Qadeer Khan, has acknowledged that it possesses a design for a far more advanced high-speed centrifuge to enrich uranium than it previously revealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The centrifuge, called a "Pak-2" because it represents Pakistan's second-generation design, would allow Iran to produce nuclear fuel far more quickly than the equipment that it reluctantly revealed to the agency last year. But it is unclear that Iran succeeded in building the new equipment, which is the type that the Khan network sold to Libya in recent years.
Some details of Iran's shift were reported in The Financial Times on Thursday. Iran's new statements to the agency, which last year compelled the country to open to fuller inspections, are important for two reasons. They provide the first evidence that Iran did not tell the full truth when it turned over to the agency documents that it said described all the important elements of its program to enrich uranium. The enrichment program, Iran admitted at the time, had been conducted in secret and out of the view of international inspectors for 18 years.
The revelation has also touched off a debate within the American and European intelligence communities over whether the Khan network also sold a full weapon design to Iran, similar to the one found in Libya.
"It's natural to question whether the Iranians got everything the Libyans did," one senior administration official said. "Why wouldn't they?"
And consider this story:
Iran failed to declare sensitive designs for uranium enrichment centrifuges to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, calling into question the Islamic republic's cooperation with the agency, diplomats told Reuters Thursday.
Several Western diplomats told the news agency on condition of anonymity that information from Libya and other countries had led to the discovery of the designs, which could be used to develop machines to produce weapons-grade material.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials have expressed concerns about the existence of a global nuclear black market that has helped countries under embargo such as Iran, North Korea and Libya skirt international sanctions and obtain nuclear technology that could be used to make weapons.
Bear in mind, as always, that the actions of the Iranian regime, do not reflect the actions of the Iranian people. Via Porphyrogenitus we have this story which speaks to the disconnect between the regime and the populace:
On Revolution Day, the Iranian equivalent of the Fourth of July, Azadi Street was again transformed from east-west artery to carnival midway. Men lined up for free yogurt. Hawkers coaxed women to finger the material of baby clothes. Children clamored for a turn throwing darts at George W. Bush.
Hossein Asadi put three darts right between the eyes of the caricature, sketched on a pair of boards mounted in a sideshow tent. He walked away with a new yellow tennis ball but no change in his feelings, which were nothing if not admiring.
“They like me to hit George Bush, so I hit George Bush,” said Hossein, 15. “They say it’s the Great Satan, but I say it’s a great country.
“I’ve seen nothing bad from the Americans.”
Wednesday marked 25 years since an elderly Muslim cleric with eyes the color of coal declared Iran a theocracy. But while religious figures remain firmly in charge here, sweeping aside an entire reform movement last week with the stroke of a pen, another pillar of the revolution appears shakier.
Anti-Americanism is not what it used to be in Iran.
As the United States and Iran edge warily toward possible rapprochement, the Iranian public makes no secret of its appetite for restoring relations formally severed in 1980, after militant students took over the U.S. Embassy here. In recent months, Iranians say, the appetite has grown for an unexpected reason: Iranian pilgrims returning from Iraq are spreading admiring stories of their encounters with American troops.
Thousands of Iranians have visited the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala since the war ended. Many have expressed surprise at the respectful and helpful behavior of the U.S. soldiers they met along the way.
Leila Araki, waiting in the back of a Renault sedan as her husband peddled shoes, recalled that her mother-in-law somehow lost her money on the road to Karbala. She said a U.S. soldier reached into his pocket and handed her taxi fare back to Najaf.
“This is something quite contrary to what we have been told about Americans,” said Araki, 31, who was told of Americans flashing thumbs-up and saying, “Good, Iranians.”
“They were really surprised. I would never be this respected and well-treated even in my country, by my countrymen.”
Posted by Pejman at February 17, 2004 11:46 AM
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Wonder how ugly the story is going to be in Iran the day after the elections. Maybe if it gets a little too out of hand some nearby peackeeping international forces might have to step in from across the border.
Posted by: Ronin at February 17, 2004 01:39 PM
Ronin,
Let's pray ..... NOT!!!
We need to let the Iranians
take care of this and they
will.
Posted by: leaddog2 at February 17, 2004 02:16 PM
Im a pessimist, im pretty sure the Ayatolla's gonna be dropping the iron fist down even harder after the elections.
1979 students: "we want a fundementalist state ruled by islam!"
2004 students: "ok this sucks, lets try democracy for a while!"
2026 students of the future: "hmm comrads lets give communism a try!"
Posted by: Ronin at February 17, 2004 02:57 PM
Is the Pro-Reform abolition like Bush barring democrats from participating in the 2004 election and is their president Khatami essentially saying "I know you can't vote for a democrat, so pick a republican that most closely matches your views"?
This is an honest question. I'm just trying to understand.
Max
Posted by: max darkside at February 17, 2004 04:15 PM
Boy, this is gonna be fun to watch play out. Its gonna be ugly. A Bloodless Coup, is not an option. Probably go down more like Tienanmen Square, that Georgia's Recent Peaceful Revolution.
Trouble is the Hard-Liners appear to have all the guns. and historically itchy trigger fingers.
But that Mohammad Reza Khatami must have a large set of testicles.
Maybe this pending event ( Young People Realizing Islamic Law really sucks ) will shake the Muslim Worlds Foundations. USA Programed satellite channel along with a Free and Prosperous Iraq, and Gulf Coast Nations standard of living being much greater than Saudi, Yemen, Syrian or Pakistani existence, might finally awaken reason into these otherwise religiously brainwashed Illiterate Humans.
And if not, at least some of them will die.
Posted by: Redneck Texan at February 17, 2004 10:02 PM
Yea Max Something like that. Or like if Bush was the Ayatollah, And he was to tell Kerry and All the Dems to sit down and shut, or you will be executed for treason. And they did.
No matter how the Hardliners Respond, they are going to take an International Diplomatic Black Eye.
And make it easlier for us to bomb the reactor. Hopefully, while it is staffed with Russian Technicians.
The Iranians need Nuclear Power for Electricity, like Eskimoes need Icemakers.
Posted by: Redneck Texan at February 17, 2004 11:08 PM
"Trouble is the Hard-Liners appear to have all the guns."
They seem to think so, don't they?
Porous borders cut both ways.
My gut tells me it isn't time yet, though.
No sparks, no fire.
Could be the moderates learned the hard way and have a sleeveful of aces ready for Friday or soon after.
Could be they've been out-maneuvered, for the time being, at least.
Wait and watch is about all we can do.
Posted by: jeffers at February 18, 2004 08:21 AM
Maybe they'll call the TravelingTeam back from Iraq. Boyo, I'm likin' the word associations this morning! Are the elections this Friday, or would it be Saturday with us? I have a really hard time keeping track.
Posted by: Cap'n DOC at February 18, 2004 09:52 AM
Hey Cap, Dont be afraid to break out the Biro.
Im with Leadog2 on this, If it could go down Internally, that would be great. But I dont know what percentage of the population is Reform Minded. If its not enough to make the Hardliner see the light, then some type of Covert assistance will have to be provided to the reformers, if they are to succeed.
If it wasnt for the Reactor and the Centrifuges, Time would be on our side. The Theocractic Regime surely cant last another generation, but the Ayatollahs getting old, and he may be playing for just long enough to see Tel Aviv Destroyed before he dies.
An Earthquake at the Reactor Site, of a magnitude of approximatly B-52, would change the equation in our favorite.
If our Jewish Friends do the dirty work, we could act appalled.
Posted by: Redneck Texan at February 18, 2004 12:28 PM
Redneck Texan Hey guy, I don't think anyone wants to eat FreedomFriesUnderGlass...
Posted by: Cap'n DOC at February 18, 2004 03:43 PM
Well, Its your house Cap. Why no "Liberal Response" here.
Either:
A. Everybody here totaly agrees with me. I have successfully prepared the nation accept the fact that we will eventually have to Kill em All if we want to live in a world without Terrorism.
B. This Room dont get the Traffic the Iraq Page gets.
C. All the Whiny, Lets Negotiate Peace, Liberals are concentrated on the Iraq Page. Which would stand to reason. They all love to bitch about the Iraq Casualities, but dont want to discuss thier platform for dealing with Iran or N. Korea in the next presidential Term.
D. The Radical Left Ratio peeks on the weekends.
E. They are refilling their Biros, with green.
Posted by: Redneck Texan at February 18, 2004 06:38 PM
Redneck! I go with 'B'. BTW - It is THEIR house, not mine. I get along fine with my neighbors. If you are truly a Texan, you MAY have problems of your own. I won't address that, although it could be considered a neighborhood problem.
I think PEAKS would be the word you were looking for. I don't claim to be an expert, but 'Kill 'em all' has never been my approach to the fundamental flaws of Islamic Society. Socialism isn't an answer, and certainly not the Sword. I prefer the Biro approach.
One more BTW - I am a Christian. Faith, Hope and above all, Charity, one man or woman at a time is my only option.
Posted by: Cap'n DOC at February 18, 2004 08:19 PM
Im just looking for a solution to the Terrorist Problem, that minimizes the chances of my children being involved in a holy war, with both sides in possesion of WMDs.
We havent tried one yet that has been truly successful.
Posted by: Redneck Texan at February 18, 2004 09:31 PM
And rumors of my insanity, have been greatly exagerated.
Your Homeboys also have a reputation for being, shall we say organized anti-government behavior.
Posted by: Redneck Texan at February 18, 2004 11:57 PM
My Homeboys? I think you're going to have to be:
A. More specific.
B. More inquisitive.
C. Both.
Don't make assumptions about who may or may not be on my ShortList. You may be surprised.
Posted by: Cap'n DOC at February 19, 2004 07:56 AM
I was merely refering to the general stereotyping of Montana, being home to groups that had a problem with the FBI during Reno's Tenure.
It was not a religion based smart ass comment.
But it was late, this posting stuff is interfearing with my sleep patterns again.
Posted by: Redneck Texan at February 19, 2004 09:05 AM
Redneck LOL. I'm assuming you're talkin' Freemen. I gotta tell ya, if you get out past Jordan (MT), even the damned PrairieDogs are wired differently...
Posted by: Cap'n DOC at February 19, 2004 11:02 AM
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