[by counter-terror analyst Dan Darling]

Dan Nexon, who is among other things an assistant professor at Georgetown, asked some very interesting questions as to whether or not there is an organized terror network. As an advocate of this position, I feel inclined to answer them and hope that others will agree.

Dan writes in the comments of this thread:

Dan may be right, or he may be wrong. But conclusive evidence either way? We lack that - at least in the public domain - in spades.

Ah, but do we? I don’t think so and neither does Michael Scheuer, the man who once headed up the CIA’s bin Laden unit. Regardless of one’s opinion of his views on other issues, I think that we can definitely agree that Scheuer is in a position to know on these topics and one of the reasons he wrote Through Our Enemies’ Eyes was to demonstrate to other CIA analysts the value of open-source information in intelligence analysis. Like its successor Imperial Hubris, Through Our Enemies’ Eyes definitely supports the idea that there is an organized terror network, as does Richard Clarke’s Against All Enemies if one desires another insider account. Other statements and court documents issued by European anti-terrorism judges as Baltasar Garzon and Jean-Louis Bruguiere likewise support this opinion. Newsweek even took the administration to task for assuming otherwise in an August 2004 article entitled “Like Clockwork” that includes the following statement:

Read the Rest…

TIME has a brief interview with CIA boss Porter Goss.

WHEN WILL WE GET OSAMA BIN LADEN? That is a question that goes far deeper than you know. In the chain that you need to successfully wrap up the war on terror, we have some weak links. And I find that until we strengthen all the links, we’re probably not going to be able to bring Mr. bin Laden to justice. We are making very good progress on it. But when you go to the very difficult question of dealing with sanctuaries in sovereign states, you’re dealing with a problem of our sense of international obligation, fair play. We have to find a way to work in a conventional world in unconventional ways that are acceptable to the international community.

IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF WHERE HE IS. WHERE? I have an excellent idea of where he is. What’s the next question?

For a long time I would have read this and thought “Pakistan.” But frankly, now I’m inclined to think “Iran.” You?

News on the Zarqawi front has gone cold; however the Coalition continues its efforts to dismantle his organization by attacking the middlemen. Abed Dawood Suleiman, Zarqawi’s military aide, and his son Raed, a former captain in Saddam’s army, have been captured outside of Baghdad. Jassim Hazan Hamadi al-Bazi, a bomb maker who “built and sold remote-controlled bombs used in roadside attacks from an electronic repair shop in Balad, 50 miles north of Baghdad” has also been detained.

While the hunt continues for Zarqawi and his murderers, Dan Darling points us to interesting information on the relationship between Saif al-Adel, Zarqawi, al Qaeda and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Saif al-Adel is widely believed to be the nom de guerre of former Egyptian Army Colonel Muhamad Ibrahim Makkawi (Special Forces), who fought in Afghanistan with the mujahedeen against the Soviet Union. He is purported to have been involved with the Black Hawk Down battle in Somalia, which resulted in the deaths of 18 US servicemen, the 1998 embassy attacks in Kenyan and Tanzania, the training of several of the 9-11 hijackers, and the Riyadh bombing in 2003. After the death of Mohammed Atef, al-Adel is believed to have taken on some of the Atef’s responsibilities in al-Qaeda. He is believed to be the third ranking member in the organization.

Read the Rest…

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Top Topics

• Happy Memorial Day to those in the United States! Here is a fitting tribute to our men and women who have served (Windows Media format) - and here are a set of Memorial day posts and resources, including our updated directory of ways to support the troops.

• The Zarqawi roundup. He’s dead. He’s just fine. He’s in Iran or is he surrounded in Iraq? Where might he go if he is wounded? The reports are all over the place, but it seems clear he has been wounded, perhaps seriously. This may result in infighting as various factions struggle for ascendancy. Bill looks at the potential successors.

• The health of Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd is reported to be improving. Belmont Club looks at the failures of successive administrations’ policy towards the Saudi government. Victor Comras states the US continues to send mixed signals about the Saudi’s participation in the war.

• The citizens of France have rejected the referendum on joining the European Union. But does ‘non’ mean ‘oui’? Belmont Club has more. Austin Bay says its time for a new NAFTA.

• In what may portend major policy shifts, a high-level internal review in the Bush administration may lead to broadening the anti-terror effort from killing Al Qaeda leaders to dealing with the rise of a new generation of loosely-affiliated terror leaders.

• NATO’s Rapid Response Force is quickly becoming a force to reckon with.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran roundup, Iran set to resume nuclear bomb; A look at the political process in Lebanon; Fleet surge; Hamas still building bombs; CIA cyberwar simulation; Los Zetas; Algerian Jihad; new Crisis in store for southern Sudan; Pakistani bomb blast kills 20; Indonesia bomb kills 22; Schapelle Corby; Protests in China; Terrorist bases in Europe; ETA Arnaldo Otegi; Russian power; Japanese hostage Akihiki Saito murdered.

Read the Rest…

Authorities said Sunday that Rafiq Abdus Sabir , 50, a Boca Raton physician, and Tarik Shah, 42, a self-described martial arts expert in New York, conspired to treat and train terrorists. Both are American citizens.

Both men were scheduled to be arraigned Tuesday in federal court, Shah in New York and Sabir in Florida, according to a news release from U.S. Attorney David Kelley in Manhattan.

It was not immediately clear who would represent them in court. If convicted, each man faces a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison and a fine of up to $250,000.

The one-count complaint claims the men allegedly took an oath pledging their allegiance to Al Qaeda. The government said the men engaged in multiple recorded conversations with a confidential source and an FBI agent posing as an Al Qaeda operative.

Read more..

More here

Finding Palestinians (particularly the Jordanian variety) among al-Qaeda is nothing new, but over the last two days it seems that the network’s infrastructure in Gaza has finally organized into a distinct group according to media reports. Called Jundallah, the majority of its members consist of former Hamas and Islamic Jihad members who decided that the other groups were “too moderate” for their liking.

Jundallah, not surprisingly, denies any connections to al-Qaeda but does adopt a far more strident line with respect to carrying out attacks on US targets (Hamas usually tries to skirt this issue with a “Maybe we will, maybe we won’t” kind of approach) and refuses to accept any kind of truce or cease-fire with Israel.

To be fair, accusations about al-Qaeda activity in the Gaza Strip are nothing new - Sharon mentioned them in 2002 following the failed attack on the El Al airliner in Mombasa, Kenya, but the general consensus at the time had been that whatever infrastructure the network had in the area was pretty spread out, in large part because most Palestinian Islamists who would normally be attracted al-Qaeda tend to join Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades instead for a variety of reasons. Now that all of the major terrorist groups seem more interested in establishing and securing their own power base post-Arafat rather than attacking Israelis, al-Qaeda appears to have been able to exploit the situation by recruiting any disaffected members who happen to cross their path.

Read the Rest…

In a rare break of protocol, a report by The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been made public which details how the organisation told US authorities of detainee allegations of Koran misuse from early 2002 to mid 2003.

It says that they believe action was taken by the Americans after mid 2003 because reports of desecration of the holy Islamic book ceased after that. ICRC representatives have frequently visited the camp since it was established in early 2002.

Perhaps coincidentally, a memo released on January 19, 2003 by the Defence Department gave guidelines as to how the Koran should be handled and inspected at Guantanamo, including places where it should not be placed including toilets and floor.

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday.

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Top Topics

• The arrest of senior al Qaeda commander Abu Farraj al-Libbi, a result of good, old-fashioned spycraft by the CIA’s clandestine service, may have created a “cascading effect”. 18 more members of his network were immediately arrested in the last 48 hours, and he appears to be singing like a canary. Or maybe he’s not. Speaking of singing like a canary, Zarqawi’s driver has been quite helpful as well. Pakistan may be conducting a purge of its military in the wake of his capture, as a junior minister underscored that Musharraf’s life was in constant danger. Meanwhile, on Friday 5000 terrorist sympathizers rallied to protest these developments and burn George W Bush in effigy. While there are question on al_Libbi’s rank in al Qaeda, US intelligence services did not confuse him with Anas al-Liby.

• Has a jihad begun in Nigeria? The buried lede in this Washington Times story on the Catholicism and Islam in Nigeria is that Nigerian newspapers have been abuzz with reports that a jihad is being prepared in the North. A Taliban-like group is already active, and 400 men claiming to be under Osama bin Laden’s orders attacked a Christian village in broad daylight, slaughtering worshippers in a church and committing other atrocities. America’s former ambassador to Nigeria thinks the country has become Al Qaeda’s new Afghanistan.

• Russia’s back in the Middle East, big time. Putin’s whirlwind tour led to promises to support Egypt for the Security Council, sell missiles to Syria, support Iran’s nuclear project, and use the Quartet to outmaneouvre US influence on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Other Topics Today Include:
Euros want US to offer Iran more carrot; Pakistan’s Alberta restiveness Iranian fueled?; US kills 100 in a major operation on Syrian border; Iraqis learned IED tech from forgotten US Army manual; EMS departments shortchanged; Texas border county sheriffs warn on terror migrants; FBI too slow to hire analysts; local enforcement of federal immigration law; West African instability; regime change Libya; Zarqawi terror camps in Kenya and Somalia; MILF to help Flips hunt down Abu Sayyaf; Russians foil plot; Sino-Japanese relations still fragile; Russia-Georgia conflict over bases; did US sink Kursk?; setbacks for China’s economic espionage effort; colorful Spanish trial for 9/11 defendants; US kills 20 Taliban; 6 ETA attacks thwarted, ETA suspected of stealing bomb stuff; hawwala and charities targeted for regulation and reform by Arabs; Negroponte moves fast; EURCOM cmdr sees resumption of mil. ties with Libya; Marines may be in battle with bad body armor; Israel shut out of JSF; technical underpinnings of EMP weapons and much more.

Read the Rest…

Abu Farraj al-Libbi , a senior Al Qaeda suspect wanted in two attempts to assassinate President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has been arrested in Pakistan, the government said Wednesday.

Al-Libbi, a native of Libya with a $1 million bounty on his head, was arrested earlier this week, Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed told The Associated Press.

“This is a very important day for us,” Ahmed said. He would provide no details on where al-Libbi was captured, or where he is being held.

Read more…

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report today.

Today’s Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies.

Top Topics

• The co-opting of pirates by al Qaeda should come as no surprise. We ought to pay attention, though - many high piracy areas are also key chokepoints for the world economy. The Fourth Rail offers a comprehensive briefing on the issue, with maps.

• The protection racket: Qatar is paying off al Qaeda to prevent them from attacking the small and vulnerable nation.

• Seven are wounded in multiple terrorist attacks in Cairo, Egypt. A man detonated a bomb, while two women shot up a tourist bus; all three are dead. The Egyptian government has arrested 226 suspects.

Other Topics Today Include:

• Do the Iranians want regime change?; EU-3/Iran nuke talks collapse; Iranian nukes scares Russia; Israel gets bunker-busters; Abbas’ “iron fist”; The Saudi’s strategic shift?; Saudis whip terrorism (wink-wink); Chavez, Castro heart the “Axis of Subversion”; Akbar gets death; GIA leader bagged; AU commits to Darfur; Tired Taliban; Tough times in Jammu and Kashmir; Norks’ missiles; European arrest roundup; The Balkan beat; ETA on the move; Death to Sweden; Kofi’s lynchers; CEOs VIPs for AQ; Osama kicks it? Nope; and much, much more…

Read the Rest…

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times.

TOP TOPICS

• We got Zarqawi’s laptop - and Dan Darling has details - plus more details from Bill Roggio snout the capture et. al. We’re getting close.

• Annie Jacobsen gets a visit from the Feds - flight 327 continued.

• Saudi Arabia’s chief justice calls for jihad against U.S. forces in Iraq. All part of the anti-terror crackdown, rest assured.

• Terrorism and Islamism as tools of Moroccan politics. Be sure to read the comments from Joe A and Whig.

Other Topics Today Include: lashing for student; Iran pushes to join a-bomb club; Syria nearly out; Hamas leaders to go to Gaza; Russia will sell Syria SAMs; Sadrists on the march in Basra; Islamists dominate Jeddah vote; jihadis on meth?; Akbar stabs M-P; arms dealer convicted; LAX bomber rolled; Yarkas trial; Russia using jihadis?; Bradford Taliban; Pearl killers tied to banned charity; India convicts terrorist; JI camp found in Indonesia; warning of A-Q attack in Tunisia; jihad in Nigeria; GSPC killings; and more.

Read the Rest…

When Zacarias Moussaoui pleaded guilty today to conspiracy charges linked to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks he said his mission included flying a commercial jetliner into the White House.

In its article on Moussaoui’s guilty plea, Bloomberg reports on Moussaoui’s admissions:

“I came to the U.S. and trained” on a 747 airplane simulator “to eventually use this plane to strike the White House,” Moussaoui said. He denied that he was assigned any direct role in carrying out the Sept. 11 attacks that killed almost 3,000 people. “I’m guilty of a broad conspiracy,” he said.

Moussaoui said that, in becoming a trained pilot, the plan for him was to help free blind sheik Omar Abdel Rahman, the Islamic Group’s spiritual leader who was sentenced to life in prison for plotting to blow up several U.S. targets including the United Nations building in New York City.

He said his assignment was to fly a jet into the White House if the U.S. didn’t cooperate in freeing Rahman.

From California Yankee.

JERUSALEM POST: Jordan tries terror cell in plot to strike kingdom

State witnesses testified in court Wednesday that alleged terror allies of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi collected data on producing germ weapons, destroying public infrastructure, attacking airports and carrying out assassinations.

Al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian who is al-Qaida’s point man in Iraq, and three other fugitives are being tried in absentia in Jordan’s military court along with nine men in custody since April last year. All 13 are accused in what Jordanian officials say was a plot to strike the kingdom with chemical and conventional weapons.

The group in question has been identified as Kata’eb al-Tawhid, Arabic for the Battalions of Monotheism, a previously unknown cell said to be linked to al-Qaida.

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times.

TOP TOPICS

• The Straits Times reports that Jemaah Islamiyah is planning another attack in Indonesia this year that could be as devestating as the Bali bombing. They base this on a document allegedly written by a JI operative, and believed to be authentic by a senior Indonesian counter-terror official.

• Newsweek looks at the terror-brokers who liased between Bin Laden and Zarqawi.

• Jalal Talabani - Iraq’s new interim president.

• Well, well, well, what have we here?? Damn good question. I hope Spain, and maybe a few foreign intelligence agencies, are starting to ask it.

• Israeli security services are concerned that SAMs smuggled in to Gaza by the PLO might be used to shoot down commercial airliners.

• The EU says that their trade agreement with Syria is conditional on a full withdrawal from Lebanon.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran-EU shenanigans; Canada shows spine; PLO police recruit suicide bombers; IDF prepares for new terror war; Hamas-Hezbollah accord; Syria builds intel network in Lebanon; new A-Q beheading video; Saudi cleric offers slavery instead of death after MEMRI exposure; 14 terrorists killed in Saudi Arabia; U.S. holds WMD attack plotter; Pentagon produces pessimistic study for Bush doctrine; Dutch court acquits terrorist despite obvious; Iraqis in Sweden charged with aiding Zarqawi; Albania worried about Salafis; 100 kilos of Semtex found in France; tension in North Ossetia; Kashmir bus complex attacked; Chinook crash kills 16 Americans; police officer behind church attacks in Indonesia; GSPC moves east; and much more.

Read The Rest…

Saudi forces overpowered a group of gunmen last night after a ferocious three-day battle in which officials said they had killed two of the kingdom’s most wanted men.

As the confrontation ended an interior ministry spokes man, Mansour al-Turki, said at least 10 militants had been killed “and I would expect it to be more”. Last night, state-run television reported that 14 militants had died and at least six others had been captured.

“They [security forces] have complete control of the location,” Mr Turki said. “There is no resistance any more.”

[…]

A senior military official, who asked not to be identified, named two of the dead men as Abdulkarim al-Mejjati and Saud al-Oteibi. They were originally ranked at 12 and 20 on the kingdom’s list of the 26 most-wanted al-Qaida suspects.

Read more..

HAARETZ: Egypt charges three over October Sinai blasts

Three Egyptians will stand trial for murder over the killing of 34 people in bombings at Egyptian Red Sea tourist resorts in October, the public prosecutor’s office in Cairo said on Wednesday.

Twelve Israelis were killed in the attacks.

Public Prosecutor Maher Abdel Wahed referred Mohamed Sabah and Mohamed Abdullah Rabaa to a state security court for trial for the attacks at the Egyptian Sinai resorts which were popular with Israelis. The third man, Mohamed Ahmed Fulayfel, has not been caught and will stand trial in absentia.

FOX:

The U.S. Supreme court on Monday declined to settle a long-running dispute in the government’s case against terror suspect Zacarias Moussaoui ).

In refusing to hear Moussaoui’s appeal, the justices let stand a 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that kept the death penalty in play and ordered a compromise on Moussaoui’s access to top-ranking Al Qaeda figures that are in U.S. custody.

Moussaoui, a French national, is the only person charged in the Sept. 11 terror attacks in the United States.

To simplify this entire post into one sentence, Jonathan Schanzer is a superb counter-terrorism analyst and his book, Al-Qaeda’s Armies: Middle East Affiliate Groups & The Next Generation of Terror is something that should probably be on any aspiring terror watcher’s reading list. The broader context of the post, however, deals with all of the terror literature that has cropped up since 9/11 and why I think that we need more books of this nature in stores.

• Predominant Literature on al-Qaeda
• Reasons For This Limitation
• Differing Methodologies
• Where Schanzer Fits In
• My Own Reading List

The Associated Press reports that two al-Qaida-linked groups in Southeast Asia are training terrorists in scuba diving for seaborne terror attacks.

In the past year, the Indonesia-based Jemaah Islamiyah has given Abu Sayyaf militants in the Philippines at least $18,500 for explosives training alone, the report said.

The report comes a month after the U.S. Coast Guard announced it is seeking to better protect the nation’s ports from terrorist attacks by scuba divers by developing a sonar system that can distinguish human swimmers from dolphins.

Concerns about terrorist strikes by scuba divers were raised three years ago after the FBI announced it was investigating whether al-Qaida operatives took scuba training to help blow up ships at anchor, power plants, bridges, depots or other waterfront targets.

From California Yankee.

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times.

TOP TOPICS

• UPDATE: Free-Lebanon.com says there has been a military coup in Syria (via Discarded Lies - still unconfirmed)

• The New York Times has reported that the ‘looting’ (their term) of WMD facilities was systematic. Looters with cranes and flat-beds.

• At least some Syrian intelligence personnel are said to be leaving Beirut. Syrian puppet Emile Lahoud united with the Maronite Patriarch to tell people to limit their shows of force. Men like the Patriarch are why I’m pessimistic about Lebanon’s chances - more here. There is evidence of a cover-up in the Hariri murder. Syria’s U.N. ambassador says Syria will leave when Lebanon can fill the vacuum. The French are looking to evacuate some 20,000 citizens - quietly. As ever, Publius Pundit has more Lebanon news.

• Hammorabi has a hunch that the rumours about Zarqawi being captured are true.

• Tests for anthrax in Pentagon and Fairfax have come up negative.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran murders opponents; U.K. supplies body armour; Hezbollah needs guns to kill Zionists; palestinan terrorists build up strength; Abbas to release senior P.F.L.P. terrorist; the P.K.K. returns; Zarqawi wants to inflitrate from Mexico; D.H.S. warns of hijack vulnerability; converts under threat; Paris bomber sentenced; Kashmir roots lead to London; Socialist aided GIA, later 3/11, terrorist; FBI busts SAM smugglers; Bangladeshi cops arrest Zionist provocateurs; India wants LeT listed; pirates kidnap Japanese in Indonesia; and much more.

Read the Rest…

The Associated Press reports that Pakistani security forces came close to capturing Osama bin Laden about eight to 10 months ago.

Though President Gen. Pervez Musharraf did not say where the operation took place, the comment was the first official indication that bin Laden has recently been in Pakistan. Intelligence officials have said they believe he is hiding in the rugged mountains that straddle the border with Afghanistan.

“There was a time when the dragnet had closed and we thought we knew roughly the area where he possibly could be,” Musharraf said in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp. aired Tuesday.

“That was, I think, some time back … maybe about eight to 10 months back,” he said, adding: “But after that, this is such a game, this intelligence, that they escape. They can move and then you lose contact.”

The comments confirmed Pakistani intelligence officials’ claims that the trail of the world’s most wanted man has gone cold. Senior officials close to the hunt have told The Associated Press they have received no information on his whereabouts for months and have no indication of any specific attack he is planning.

From California Yankee.

The Associated Press, via ABC News, reports that Pakistani officials say al-Qaida effectively decapitated.

Pakistani intelligence agents told The Associated Press that it has been months since they picked up any “chatter” from suspected al-Qaida men, and longer still since they received any specific intelligence on the whereabouts of bin Laden or any plans to launch a specific attack

[. . .]

Pakistani officials have been quick to hail the long silence as a signal that it has already dismantled bin Laden’s network, at least in this part of the world.

“We have broken the back of al-Qaida,” Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao said last month in a speech in Peshawar, the capital of the frontier province on the border with Afghanistan. Musharraf added last week that his government had “eliminated the terrorist centers” in the Waziristan tribal region and elsewhere.

“We have broken their communication system. We have destroyed their sanctuaries,” the president told reporters. “They are not in a position to move in vehicles. They are unable to contact their people. They are on the run.”

From California Yankee.

Al Qaeda Organization in Iraq has slammed as a gathering of infidels an international conference to mark the first anniversary of the Madrid train bombings, and said Islam will prevail.

United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan told the three-day conference in the Spanish capital Thursday the world must quickly take concerted action against terrorism and deny extremists the chance to carry out a nuclear attack.

“How many times do the infidels meet in solidarity against Islam and jihad (holy struggle) … and stand in the same trench with one thing on their minds; to fight Muslims and abuse them,” the group said in a statement posted on a Web site used by Islamists Saturday.

The group is behind some of the deadliest attacks in Iraq, including suicide bombings and the kidnapping and beheading of foreign hostages.

Around 20 heads of government, including Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, attended the conference organized to mark the anniversary of the March 11, 2004 attacks by Osama bin Laden ‘s al Qaeda group that killed 191 people.

Read more…

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times.

TOP TOPICS

• Confessions, confessions. Terrorists and Syrian officers on Iraqi TV spell out quite clearly that the war in Iraq is regional. Dan has the analysis here. Hammorabi has more.

• A senior Lebanese politician says Lebanon will co-operate with the UN investigation in to the murder of Rafik Hariri. The Lebanese government has offered to step down, though who exactly would accept their resignation is not made clear. Lebanese investigators believe the killers were trained in and came from Iraq. At least one Lebanese protester wants the U.S. to invade, while Syrian intellectuals demand Assad leave pronto. Hezbollah stays neutral. Chirac wants Syria to leave Lebanon, and warns of UN sanctions. Even the UN is issuing deadlines: get out by April. Amr Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League, says Syria will withdraw troops from Lebanon. True to form, Syria suggests the Jews did it.

• A U.S. citizen is charged with plotting to kill President Bush and providing support for al-Qaeda. The indictment says he, along with ten others, planned to murder the president in 2002-2003, either by shooting him or with a car bomb. UPDATE: Rusty Shackleford looks at the Muslim Brotherhood connection.

• Ayman al-Zawahiri warns that the West faces peril unless they start playing dhimmi.

Other Topics Today Include: diplomatic delusions with Iran; mass-release of terrorists; Lebanon as a model for retreat; NATO would send troops to Israel; A-Q may go for soft targets in Kuwait; successes in Yemen; American Muslim charged with plot to kill president; Saudis extradite American jihadi; Madrid tower fire - arson?; Dutch intelligence watch Saudi-funded mosques; Theo van Gogh revisited; FSB nails Beslan financier; GSPC more of a threat post-Hattab; Pakistani troops to fire on U.S. forces; Taliban to give in?; serious warning of attack in Aceh; Phillipines arrests thwart attacks; three arrested suicide bombers in Kenya; GSPC ambushes army; and much more.

Read the Rest…

184,000 such licenses were issued between 12/2000 and 2/2002.

There are various bills being proposed in other states to tighten or loosen the rules regarding driver’s licenses. Rep. Sensenbrenner [R-WI] has authored a bill that would set nationwide standards.

In California, state Sen. Gil Cedillo [D] recently continued his multi-year attempt to give driver’s licenses to illegal aliens: “Actors, writers and musicians push for [illegal] immigrant drivers licenses” (commentary here, picture of the ad here.) Security checks would supposedly be performed. Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed the last such Cedillo bill that was passed, saying the security safeguards weren’t stringent enough.

The 9/11 hijackers reportedly had a combined total of 63 driver’s licenses from various states, although the exact number is disputed, albeit without providing direct contradictory evidence. Various DMVs across the country have had scandals where employees issued licenses to those without the proper ID; the AP offers a roundup here. Other 9/11 terrorists had driver’s licenses from Virginia or Florida. The procedure they used to obtain some licenses is detailed here.

(Same AP report here and here.)

The New York Daily News reports that the FBI nabbed a Saudi military official with ties to al Qaeda. The Saudi was arrested just after he finished training with the U.S. Air Force:

FBI agents stopped and quizzed the suspect and his family at a U.S. airport as they were leaving the country. The military man was allowed to return to Saudi Arabia, where he was detained and interrogated further, sources said.

As a result, arrests of other Al Qaeda operatives were made overseas, sources said.

From California Yankee.

One might say,”It’s about d@mn time!”…

From CounterTerror blog, the folks who brought us Diplomad.

Treasury {Dept} Designates al-Zarqawi & al Qaida Financier - Involved in Jordan Chemical Bomb Plot

Is the White House about to double the bounty on Osama bin Laden’s head to $50 million? TIME magazine thinks so.

Anyone think this will help? Suppose there’s someone, huddled in north Pakistan, who’s now going to say, “For $25 million, I wouls never give up brother Osama. But $50 million? Hmmm …”

John Venlet doesn’t think so. Further, a careful reading of social network analysis would also prompt an answer of “No.” Close networks, like al Qaeda, like clans, are not prone to this type of influence.

Still, it can’t hurt, can it? I just hope we’re not banking on that particular solution (pardon the pun).

While on the topic of social network analysis an AQ, see this Global Guerrillas post, which points to Connecting The Dots—a social network analysis of the terror network.

International counterterrorism authorities are looking for a Moroccan fugitive who may have attended a pivotal meeting with the plotters of the attacks of September 11, 2001, and is believed to have played a logistical role in the train bombings last year in Madrid, Spain.

The fugitive, Amer Azizi, appears to connect a group of terror operatives and may exemplify al Qaeda’s decentralization — a trend about which U.S. intelligence officials have warned.

New information from federal authorities indicates Azizi may have provided lodging to people involved in the backpack bombings of the Spanish commuter trains, according to U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

More…

The Boston Herald reported yesterday that federal law enforcement agencies have warned the Boston police that an East Boston street gang with roots in El Salvador is cooperating with Al Qaeda:

A burgeoning East Boston-based street gang made up of alleged rapists and machete-wielding robbers has been linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist network, prompting Boston police to “turn up the heat” on its members, the Herald has learned.

MS-13, which stands for La Mara Salvatrucha, is an extremely violent organization with roots in El Salvador, and boasts more than 100 “hardcore members” in East Boston who are suspected of brutal machete attacks, rapes and home invasions. There are hundreds more MS-13 gangsters in towns along the North Shore, said Boston police Sgt. Detective Joseph Fiandaca, who has investigated the gang since it began tagging buildings in Maverick Square in 1995.

In recent months, intelligence officials in Washington have warned national law enforcement agencies that al-Qaeda terrorists have been spotted with members of MS-13 in El Salvador, prompting concerns the gang may be smuggling Islamic fundamentalist terrorists into the country. Law enforcement officials have long believed that MS-13 controls alien smuggling routes along Mexico.

The warning is being taken seriously in East Boston, where Raed Hijazi, an al-Qaeda operative charged with training the suicide bombers in the attack on the USS Cole, lived and worked, prosecutors have charged.

[snip]

The theory that Salvadoran criminals manage to smuggle people over the border was bolstered this month when two Boston men described as MS-13 leaders were spotted on the North Shore days before Christmas - a year after they were deported by Boston Homeland Security Immigration and Customs Enforcement investigators for gang-related crimes.

Read the whole thing.

[by Dan Darling]

Reading through the rants of Osama bin Laden is not the way I imagine most people would want to spend the week before New Year’s, but I figure somebody has to it, so why not yours truly?

And my is there a lot of a bile to sort through this time around, so I apologize in advance for the length of this post. All the same, I’ve been out of circulation for awhile so I hope to make it worth your while.

The Saudi Tape

• The Dec. 16 message to the Saudi People
• The Dec. 16 message: International Dimensions
• The Dec. 16 message: A Saudi Ultimatum

Etc.

• And While I’m At It… Comments & Notes from the Global WoT

Back during the Cold War, the rule with intelligence was, “If it’s sensational, don’t believe it.” Of course, back then we were fighting something resembling a rational enemy, whereas these days it seems like we’re reliving the plots of far too many bad novels. I’ve got half a mind to recommend that they open up US intelligence to all of these comic book geeks who keep track of every detail of their favorite characters online. They, at least, could remember all of these damned names.

— Former senior US intelligence official in conversation to me, circa July 2004

As some of you already know, last weekend I was at a counter-terrorism conference in New York City at the behest of my patrons, who were nice enough to fly me out there and for the purposes of me posting on the Internet would prefer to remain anonymous, if for nothing else than so they can plausibly deny everything they say ;) I’ve also been finishing finals and watching the extended edition of The Return of the King, so I apologize in advance for the number of Tolkien references that are likely to be used here.

The conference’s attendees included a wide variety of law enforcement, intelligence, military or former military, and think tank types from pretty much across the ideological spectrum and I learned a great deal both from the presentations and in conversation. None of the information that was shared at the conference was classified or anything like that, and I have my own doubts (and in some cases extreme disagreement) about some of what was said. Still, I figure that this may all be valuable to you, perhaps because it runs against some of what I have argued.

• Al-Qaeda Command & Control
• Al-Qaeda Training Facilities & Infrastructure
• Al-Qaeda in General
• Iraq and al-Qaeda
• Iran & al-Qaeda

I’m sitting out the whole Armed Liberal/Kevin Drum debate for a number of reasons, not the least of which being that the partisan half of me isn’t going to cry too much if the Democratic Party can’t articulate a consistent national security approach, but one of the things that I do think that needs to be understood to anyone seeking to understand how to fight al-Qaeda is the true scope of the threat.

Unfortunately, a great many authors and analysts, even the entirely intelligent and articulate ones, have developed a somewhat skewed perspective of al-Qaeda in that they only focus on the organization when it attacks Western or American targets. The problem with this approach is that it drastically under-estimates the threat.

Scope Note

I’ve mentioned before that I’m a big fan of Dr. Rohan Gunaratna’s Inside Al-Qaeda for a whole reasons, not the least of which being that I have an enormous amount of professional respect and admiration for the author, but also because he covers, if only scratching the surface in some cases, the full width and scope of the international terrorist network. He also isn’t a “neocon” by any stretch of the term and as such should be more than immune to the infantile phobia that many on the left seem to hold towards them, but he does a pretty good job of expressing who the enemy is and what they’ve done.

If you want an introduction to what al-Qaeda is and to understand why it’s a threat, this is the book for you to read.

The problem is that most “histories” of al-Qaeda don’t include any definitive break-down of the organization’s role in the following:

• Kashmir Insurgency
• Moro Insurgency (southern Philippines)
• Sudanese Civil War
• Tajik Civil War
• Ogaden Insurgency (Ethiopia)
• Armenia-Azerbaijan War
• Algerian Civil War
• Allied Democratic Forces Insurgency (Uganda)
• Bosnian War
• Second Chechen War
• Indonesian Religio-Nationalist Conflicts (Sulawesi, Moluccas, etc.)
• Uzbek Islamist Uprising
• South Thailand Insurgency

Continue Reading “Al-Qaeda: The Scope of the Threat”

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times.

Apologies for my enforced absence last week. My ISP is giving us trouble. To make up for it, this week’s Winds of War is a bit of a bumper edition. There’s a new layout, too, which may or may not stay the same - depending on the number and locations of news items.

Enjoy!

TOP TOPICS

• The CIA says that Iran recieved nuclear know-how from AQ Khan.

• Syrian mosques are sending hundreds of terrorists in to Iraq every month.

• Al-Qaeda are making ever greater use of propaganda. Audio tapes are coming out every six weeks or so, and they’re trying even harder to recruit in Europe and the United States.

• JK: Mayflower Hill has been doing amazing work re: Sudan. Now we get simple flowcharts that help you understand what’s going on in Darfur. Right now, he says, there’s a lot of faulty understanding out there.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran’s deal with Europe; martyr sign-up; Hamas to claim attacks for A-Q; Egypt aids Gaza terrorists; chopper down in Sinai?; Yemeni A-Q apologise, released; EU did/didn’t contact Hamas; 9/11 linked to 3/11; Qaeda has WMD know-how, and use is inevitable; foreign intelligence agency involved in Beslan; Basayev flees Chechnya; Zarqawi called Chile/Cyprus; Barghouti for pres!; KSM and Bosnia; progress against JI; bounty hunters chase Abu Sayyaf; JI may use biochem; Sudan bombs villages; A-Q in East Africa; and much more.

Read the Rest! >>

Top Usama bin Laden lieutenant Ayman Al-Zawahiri vowed in a videotape excerpt shown Monday to continue fighting the United States until its policies change.

Al-Zawahiri, bin Laden’s right-hand man, referred to the recent U.S. presidential election on the tape, shown on Al-Jazeera television. CIA officials told FOX News they believed with a “high degree of confidence” that the figure speaking was bin Laden’s No. 2, and that the video was probably recorded before the Nov. 2 vote, when President Bush was re-elected, defeating Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.

“The results of the elections do not matter for us,” al-Zawahiri said in the three-minute excerpt. “Vote [for] whoever you want, Bush, Kerry or the devil himself. This does not concern us. What concerns us is to purge our land from the aggressors.”

Read more…

HAARETZ: Jordan’s military judge urges terror suspects to surrender

A military judge called on Jordanian terrorist Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi and three other fugitives to surrender Tuesday, a step toward opening a terror conspiracy trial involving a foiled chemical attack that could have killed thousands.

Al-Zarqawi, believed to be on the run in Iraq with a $25 million price on his head, and the three fugitives will be tried in absentia along with eight men in police custody since April on charges including conspiring to commit terrorism, possessing and manufacturing explosives and affiliation with a banned group.

A ninth man, also detained in April, was charged only with helping two fugitives.

If convicted in the military court, the 12 other men - including al-Zarqawi - face the death penalty.

No date has yet been set for the trial. But it is expected to start in early December, shortly after the expiry of a 10-day grace period issued Tuesday by Col. Fawaz Buqour, the presiding military judge in the case.

Why didn’t we think of doing that?

JERUSALEM POST: Terrorist involved in Pearl kidnapping killed

An Islamic militant wanted in connection with the abduction and beheading of American journalist Daniel Pearl was killed Wednesday in a police raid in Karachi, an officer said.

Asim Ghafoor died after a shootout with police and intelligence agents as they tried to arrest him at a hideout in the west of the city, said Javed Shah Bokhari, deputy inspector general of city police.

Ghafoor, who is a Pakistani, opened fire as he tried to flee but was wounded when police returned fire, and later died in a hospital, Bokhari said. Police seized a pistol that Ghafoor used in the shooting.

It was not clear what role Ghafoor might have played in the kidnapping and murder of Pearl, a Wall Street Journal correspondent who disappeared on January 23, 2002, in Karachi while researching a story on Islamic militancy in Pakistan.

Osama bin Laden’s recent videotape, combined with the recent message from Adam Gadahn/Azzam al-Ameriki, have left more than a few Americans and intelligence and law enforcement analysts puzzled as to what his apparent purpose is and why he would break cover this late in the game. This analysis will attempt to puzzle out the meaning of bin Laden’s statement on a point-by-point analysis, and what I think his objectives are in making it.

I’m going to be using the MEMRI, BBC, and al-Jazeera transcripts of the excerpts that were broadcast on al-Jazeera on Friday, shifting between the three as differences arise. I should note that because we’re dealing with a non-Roman language (Arabic), there are going to be differences in how to properly translate some portions of the tape. If you’re familiar with all of the differences inherent in various translations of the Old Testament from Hebrew or Aramaic into English, we’re kind of dealing with the same thing here. Al-Jazeera is using the English subtitles provided by the al-Sahab propaganda company that produced the video in their translation.

Continue Reading “Special Analysis: Osama’s Message”

HAARETZ: Egypt: Sinai bombings not linked to Al-Qaida

An inquiry into the Red Sea resort attacks targeting Israeli tourists did not indicate the bombers were linked to Al-Qaida or part of a wider organized militant network, Egypt said on Monday.

The authorities said the blasts, in which 33 people were killed, were part of the wider cycle of violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Israeli and American officials had said Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaida was probably to blame for the Oct 7. bombs, which struck the Taba Hilton and two beach camps further south in the Sinai peninsula.

But Egypt’s Interior Minister Habib el-Adli told reporters on Monday the inquiry “did not indicate the linking of the group which carried out the attacks with [wider] organizational activity at home or abroad or with cells of the Al-Qaida organization”.