![]() |
|
July 26, 2005
Special Analysis: Degrees of Decentralization
[by counter-terror analyst Dan Darling] Dan Nexon, who is among other things an assistant professor at Georgetown, asked some very interesting questions as to whether or not there is an organized terror network. As an advocate of this position, I feel inclined to answer them and hope that others will agree. Dan writes in the comments of this thread:
Ah, but do we? I don’t think so and neither does Michael Scheuer, the man who once headed up the CIA’s bin Laden unit. Regardless of one’s opinion of his views on other issues, I think that we can definitely agree that Scheuer is in a position to know on these topics and one of the reasons he wrote Through Our Enemies’ Eyes was to demonstrate to other CIA analysts the value of open-source information in intelligence analysis. Like its successor Imperial Hubris, Through Our Enemies’ Eyes definitely supports the idea that there is an organized terror network, as does Richard Clarke’s Against All Enemies if one desires another insider account. Other statements and court documents issued by European anti-terrorism judges as Baltasar Garzon and Jean-Louis Bruguiere likewise support this opinion. Newsweek even took the administration to task for assuming otherwise in an August 2004 article entitled “Like Clockwork” that includes the following statement: June 19, 2005
Time: 10 Questions For Porter Gross
TIME has a brief interview with CIA boss Porter Goss. WHEN WILL WE GET OSAMA BIN LADEN? That is a question that goes far deeper than you know. In the chain that you need to successfully wrap up the war on terror, we have some weak links. And I find that until we strengthen all the links, we’re probably not going to be able to bring Mr. bin Laden to justice. We are making very good progress on it. But when you go to the very difficult question of dealing with sanctuaries in sovereign states, you’re dealing with a problem of our sense of international obligation, fair play. We have to find a way to work in a conventional world in unconventional ways that are acceptable to the international community. For a long time I would have read this and thought “Pakistan.” But frankly, now I’m inclined to think “Iran.” You? June 16, 2005
Special Analysis: Saif al-Adel, Zarqawi, al Qaeda and Iran
News on the Zarqawi front has gone cold; however the Coalition continues its efforts to dismantle his organization by attacking the middlemen. Abed Dawood Suleiman, Zarqawi’s military aide, and his son Raed, a former captain in Saddam’s army, have been captured outside of Baghdad. Jassim Hazan Hamadi al-Bazi, a bomb maker who “built and sold remote-controlled bombs used in roadside attacks from an electronic repair shop in Balad, 50 miles north of Baghdad” has also been detained. While the hunt continues for Zarqawi and his murderers, Dan Darling points us to interesting information on the relationship between Saif al-Adel, Zarqawi, al Qaeda and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Saif al-Adel is widely believed to be the nom de guerre of former Egyptian Army Colonel Muhamad Ibrahim Makkawi (Special Forces), who fought in Afghanistan with the mujahedeen against the Soviet Union. He is purported to have been involved with the Black Hawk Down battle in Somalia, which resulted in the deaths of 18 US servicemen, the 1998 embassy attacks in Kenyan and Tanzania, the training of several of the 9-11 hijackers, and the Riyadh bombing in 2003. After the death of Mohammed Atef, al-Adel is believed to have taken on some of the Atef’s responsibilities in al-Qaeda. He is believed to be the third ranking member in the organization. May 30, 2005
Winds of War: May 30/05
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report today. Today’s Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio and evariste of Discarded Lies. Top Topics
Other Topics Today Include: Iran roundup, Iran set to resume nuclear bomb; A look at the political process in Lebanon; Fleet surge; Hamas still building bombs; CIA cyberwar simulation; Los Zetas; Algerian Jihad; new Crisis in store for southern Sudan; Pakistani bomb blast kills 20; Indonesia bomb kills 22; Schapelle Corby; Protests in China; Terrorist bases in Europe; ETA Arnaldo Otegi; Russian power; Japanese hostage Akihiki Saito murdered. Two Americans Charged With Aiding Al Qaeda
Authorities said Sunday that Rafiq Abdus Sabir , 50, a Boca Raton physician, and Tarik Shah, 42, a self-described martial arts expert in New York, conspired to treat and train terrorists. Both are American citizens. May 23, 2005
The Palestinian Jundallah: Al-Qaeda's Hand in Gaza
Finding Palestinians (particularly the Jordanian variety) among al-Qaeda is nothing new, but over the last two days it seems that the network’s infrastructure in Gaza has finally organized into a distinct group according to media reports. Called Jundallah, the majority of its members consist of former Hamas and Islamic Jihad members who decided that the other groups were “too moderate” for their liking. Jundallah, not surprisingly, denies any connections to al-Qaeda but does adopt a far more strident line with respect to carrying out attacks on US targets (Hamas usually tries to skirt this issue with a “Maybe we will, maybe we won’t” kind of approach) and refuses to accept any kind of truce or cease-fire with Israel. To be fair, accusations about al-Qaeda activity in the Gaza Strip are nothing new - Sharon mentioned them in 2002 following the failed attack on the El Al airliner in Mombasa, Kenya, but the general consensus at the time had been that whatever infrastructure the network had in the area was pretty spread out, in large part because most Palestinian Islamists who would normally be attracted al-Qaeda tend to join Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades instead for a variety of reasons. Now that all of the major terrorist groups seem more interested in establishing and securing their own power base post-Arafat rather than attacking Israelis, al-Qaeda appears to have been able to exploit the situation by recruiting any disaffected members who happen to cross their path. May 20, 2005
Koran Desecration at Guantanamo Began in 2002 Says Red Cross
In a rare break of protocol, a report by The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been made public which details how the organisation told US authorities of detainee allegations of Koran misuse from early 2002 to mid 2003. It says that they believe action was taken by the Americans after mid 2003 because reports of desecration of the holy Islamic book ceased after that. ICRC representatives have frequently visited the camp since it was established in early 2002. Perhaps coincidentally, a memo released on January 19, 2003 by the Defence Department gave guidelines as to how the Koran should be handled and inspected at Guantanamo, including places where it should not be placed including toilets and floor. May 10, 2005
Monday Winds of War: May 10/05
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today’s Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies. Also be sure to check out Andrew’s Iraq Report and Arthur’s Good News From Iraq briefings. Top Topics
Other Topics Today Include: May 04, 2005
Pakistan Arrests Top Al Qaeda Figure
Abu Farraj al-Libbi , a senior Al Qaeda suspect wanted in two attempts to assassinate President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has been arrested in Pakistan, the government said Wednesday. May 02, 2005
Monday Winds of War: May 02/05
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report today. Today’s Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies. Top Topics
Other Topics Today Include:
April 28, 2005
Winds of War: April 28/05
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times. TOP TOPICS
Other Topics Today Include: lashing for student; Iran pushes to join a-bomb club; Syria nearly out; Hamas leaders to go to Gaza; Russia will sell Syria SAMs; Sadrists on the march in Basra; Islamists dominate Jeddah vote; jihadis on meth?; Akbar stabs M-P; arms dealer convicted; LAX bomber rolled; Yarkas trial; Russia using jihadis?; Bradford Taliban; Pearl killers tied to banned charity; India convicts terrorist; JI camp found in Indonesia; warning of A-Q attack in Tunisia; jihad in Nigeria; GSPC killings; and more. April 22, 2005
Moussaoui's Target Was The White House
When Zacarias Moussaoui pleaded guilty today to conspiracy charges linked to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks he said his mission included flying a commercial jetliner into the White House. In its article on Moussaoui’s guilty plea, Bloomberg reports on Moussaoui’s admissions:
From California Yankee. April 20, 2005
Jordan tries terror cell in plot to strike kingdom
JERUSALEM POST: Jordan tries terror cell in plot to strike kingdom State witnesses testified in court Wednesday that alleged terror allies of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi collected data on producing germ weapons, destroying public infrastructure, attacking airports and carrying out assassinations. April 07, 2005
Thursday Winds of War: April 07/05
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times. TOP TOPICS
Other Topics Today Include: Iran-EU shenanigans; Canada shows spine; PLO police recruit suicide bombers; IDF prepares for new terror war; Hamas-Hezbollah accord; Syria builds intel network in Lebanon; new A-Q beheading video; Saudi cleric offers slavery instead of death after MEMRI exposure; 14 terrorists killed in Saudi Arabia; U.S. holds WMD attack plotter; Pentagon produces pessimistic study for Bush doctrine; Dutch court acquits terrorist despite obvious; Iraqis in Sweden charged with aiding Zarqawi; Albania worried about Salafis; 100 kilos of Semtex found in France; tension in North Ossetia; Kashmir bus complex attacked; Chinook crash kills 16 Americans; police officer behind church attacks in Indonesia; GSPC moves east; and much more. April 05, 2005
Two al-Qaida Suspects Die in Saudi Gun Battle
Saudi forces overpowered a group of gunmen last night after a ferocious three-day battle in which officials said they had killed two of the kingdom’s most wanted men. March 30, 2005
Egypt charges three over October Sinai blasts
HAARETZ: Egypt charges three over October Sinai blasts Three Egyptians will stand trial for murder over the killing of 34 people in bombings at Egyptian Red Sea tourist resorts in October, the public prosecutor’s office in Cairo said on Wednesday. March 21, 2005
Supreme Court Won't Hear Moussaoui Appeal
FOX: The U.S. Supreme court on Monday declined to settle a long-running dispute in the government’s case against terror suspect Zacarias Moussaoui ). Examining al-Qaeda: How to Read Intelligently
To simplify this entire post into one sentence, Jonathan Schanzer is a superb counter-terrorism analyst and his book, Al-Qaeda’s Armies: Middle East Affiliate Groups & The Next Generation of Terror is something that should probably be on any aspiring terror watcher’s reading list. The broader context of the post, however, deals with all of the terror literature that has cropped up since 9/11 and why I think that we need more books of this nature in stores. March 18, 2005
Terrorists Training Scuba Divers To Attack Ships
The Associated Press reports that two al-Qaida-linked groups in Southeast Asia are training terrorists in scuba diving for seaborne terror attacks.
From California Yankee. March 17, 2005
Winds of War: March 17/05
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times. TOP TOPICS
Other Topics Today Include: Iran murders opponents; U.K. supplies body armour; Hezbollah needs guns to kill Zionists; palestinan terrorists build up strength; Abbas to release senior P.F.L.P. terrorist; the P.K.K. returns; Zarqawi wants to inflitrate from Mexico; D.H.S. warns of hijack vulnerability; converts under threat; Paris bomber sentenced; Kashmir roots lead to London; Socialist aided GIA, later 3/11, terrorist; FBI busts SAM smugglers; Bangladeshi cops arrest Zionist provocateurs; India wants LeT listed; pirates kidnap Japanese in Indonesia; and much more. March 15, 2005
Pakistani Forces Got Close to Capturing Bin Laden
The Associated Press reports that Pakistani security forces came close to capturing Osama bin Laden about eight to 10 months ago.
From California Yankee. March 14, 2005
Al-Qaida Ability Diminishing
The Associated Press, via ABC News, reports that Pakistani officials say al-Qaida effectively decapitated.
From California Yankee. March 12, 2005
Al Qaeda Slams 'Infidel' Conference in Spain
Al Qaeda Organization in Iraq has slammed as a gathering of infidels an international conference to mark the first anniversary of the Madrid train bombings, and said Islam will prevail. February 24, 2005
Thursday Winds of War: 2005-02-24
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times. TOP TOPICS
Other Topics Today Include: diplomatic delusions with Iran; mass-release of terrorists; Lebanon as a model for retreat; NATO would send troops to Israel; A-Q may go for soft targets in Kuwait; successes in Yemen; American Muslim charged with plot to kill president; Saudis extradite American jihadi; Madrid tower fire - arson?; Dutch intelligence watch Saudi-funded mosques; Theo van Gogh revisited; FSB nails Beslan financier; GSPC more of a threat post-Hattab; Pakistani troops to fire on U.S. forces; Taliban to give in?; serious warning of attack in Aceh; Phillipines arrests thwart attacks; three arrested suicide bombers in Kenya; GSPC ambushes army; and much more. February 07, 2005
9/11 hijacker used bypass code to obtain California [driver's] license
SACRAMENTO — The terrorist believed to have flown a hijacked airliner into the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001, obtained a California driver’s license without providing the required Social Security number for identification, officials are acknowledging for the first time. 184,000 such licenses were issued between 12/2000 and 2/2002. There are various bills being proposed in other states to tighten or loosen the rules regarding driver’s licenses. Rep. Sensenbrenner [R-WI] has authored a bill that would set nationwide standards. In California, state Sen. Gil Cedillo [D] recently continued his multi-year attempt to give driver’s licenses to illegal aliens: “Actors, writers and musicians push for [illegal] immigrant drivers licenses” (commentary here, picture of the ad here.) Security checks would supposedly be performed. Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed the last such Cedillo bill that was passed, saying the security safeguards weren’t stringent enough. The 9/11 hijackers reportedly had a combined total of 63 driver’s licenses from various states, although the exact number is disputed, albeit without providing direct contradictory evidence. Various DMVs across the country have had scandals where employees issued licenses to those without the proper ID; the AP offers a roundup here. Other 9/11 terrorists had driver’s licenses from Virginia or Florida. The procedure they used to obtain some licenses is detailed here. February 01, 2005
FBI Nabs Saudi Al Qaeda
The New York Daily News reports that the FBI nabbed a Saudi military official with ties to al Qaeda. The Saudi was arrested just after he finished training with the U.S. Air Force:
From California Yankee. January 25, 2005
Zarqawi financier now on Terrorist List
One might say,”It’s about d@mn time!”… From CounterTerror blog, the folks who brought us Diplomad. Treasury {Dept} Designates al-Zarqawi & al Qaida Financier - Involved in Jordan Chemical Bomb Plot January 23, 2005
White House To Double Osama Bounty?
Is the White House about to double the bounty on Osama bin Laden’s head to $50 million? TIME magazine thinks so. Anyone think this will help? Suppose there’s someone, huddled in north Pakistan, who’s now going to say, “For $25 million, I wouls never give up brother Osama. But $50 million? Hmmm …” John Venlet doesn’t think so. Further, a careful reading of social network analysis would also prompt an answer of “No.” Close networks, like al Qaeda, like clans, are not prone to this type of influence. Still, it can’t hurt, can it? I just hope we’re not banking on that particular solution (pardon the pun). While on the topic of social network analysis an AQ, see this Global Guerrillas post, which points to Connecting The Dots—a social network analysis of the terror network. Militant Eyed as Link to 9/11, Madrid Attacks
International counterterrorism authorities are looking for a Moroccan fugitive who may have attended a pivotal meeting with the plotters of the attacks of September 11, 2001, and is believed to have played a logistical role in the train bombings last year in Madrid, Spain. January 06, 2005
Boston Street Gang Linked to Al Qaeda
The Boston Herald reported yesterday that federal law enforcement agencies have warned the Boston police that an East Boston street gang with roots in El Salvador is cooperating with Al Qaeda: A burgeoning East Boston-based street gang made up of alleged rapists and machete-wielding robbers has been linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist network, prompting Boston police to “turn up the heat” on its members, the Herald has learned. [snip] The theory that Salvadoran criminals manage to smuggle people over the border was bolstered this month when two Boston men described as MS-13 leaders were spotted on the North Shore days before Christmas - a year after they were deported by Boston Homeland Security Immigration and Customs Enforcement investigators for gang-related crimes. Read the whole thing. December 30, 2004
Special Analysis: The 12/04 Bin Laden Tapes
[by Dan Darling] Reading through the rants of Osama bin Laden is not the way I imagine most people would want to spend the week before New Year’s, but I figure somebody has to it, so why not yours truly? And my is there a lot of a bile to sort through this time around, so I apologize in advance for the length of this post. All the same, I’ve been out of circulation for awhile so I hope to make it worth your while. The Saudi Tape
Etc. December 21, 2004
Dan Darling: Report on al-Qaeda
Back during the Cold War, the rule with intelligence was, “If it’s sensational, don’t believe it.” Of course, back then we were fighting something resembling a rational enemy, whereas these days it seems like we’re reliving the plots of far too many bad novels. I’ve got half a mind to recommend that they open up US intelligence to all of these comic book geeks who keep track of every detail of their favorite characters online. They, at least, could remember all of these damned names. As some of you already know, last weekend I was at a counter-terrorism conference in New York City at the behest of my patrons, who were nice enough to fly me out there and for the purposes of me posting on the Internet would prefer to remain anonymous, if for nothing else than so they can plausibly deny everything they say ;) I’ve also been finishing finals and watching the extended edition of The Return of the King, so I apologize in advance for the number of Tolkien references that are likely to be used here. The conference’s attendees included a wide variety of law enforcement, intelligence, military or former military, and think tank types from pretty much across the ideological spectrum and I learned a great deal both from the presentations and in conversation. None of the information that was shared at the conference was classified or anything like that, and I have my own doubts (and in some cases extreme disagreement) about some of what was said. Still, I figure that this may all be valuable to you, perhaps because it runs against some of what I have argued. December 08, 2004
Al-Qaeda: The Scope of the Threat
I’m sitting out the whole Armed Liberal/Kevin Drum debate for a number of reasons, not the least of which being that the partisan half of me isn’t going to cry too much if the Democratic Party can’t articulate a consistent national security approach, but one of the things that I do think that needs to be understood to anyone seeking to understand how to fight al-Qaeda is the true scope of the threat. Unfortunately, a great many authors and analysts, even the entirely intelligent and articulate ones, have developed a somewhat skewed perspective of al-Qaeda in that they only focus on the organization when it attacks Western or American targets. The problem with this approach is that it drastically under-estimates the threat. Scope Note I’ve mentioned before that I’m a big fan of Dr. Rohan Gunaratna’s Inside Al-Qaeda for a whole reasons, not the least of which being that I have an enormous amount of professional respect and admiration for the author, but also because he covers, if only scratching the surface in some cases, the full width and scope of the international terrorist network. He also isn’t a “neocon” by any stretch of the term and as such should be more than immune to the infantile phobia that many on the left seem to hold towards them, but he does a pretty good job of expressing who the enemy is and what they’ve done. If you want an introduction to what al-Qaeda is and to understand why it’s a threat, this is the book for you to read. The problem is that most “histories” of al-Qaeda don’t include any definitive break-down of the organization’s role in the following:
December 02, 2004
Winds of War: Dec 2/04
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday’s Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times. Apologies for my enforced absence last week. My ISP is giving us trouble. To make up for it, this week’s Winds of War is a bit of a bumper edition. There’s a new layout, too, which may or may not stay the same - depending on the number and locations of news items. Enjoy! TOP TOPICS
Other Topics Today Include: Iran’s deal with Europe; martyr sign-up; Hamas to claim attacks for A-Q; Egypt aids Gaza terrorists; chopper down in Sinai?; Yemeni A-Q apologise, released; EU did/didn’t contact Hamas; 9/11 linked to 3/11; Qaeda has WMD know-how, and use is inevitable; foreign intelligence agency involved in Beslan; Basayev flees Chechnya; Zarqawi called Chile/Cyprus; Barghouti for pres!; KSM and Bosnia; progress against JI; bounty hunters chase Abu Sayyaf; JI may use biochem; Sudan bombs villages; A-Q in East Africa; and much more. November 30, 2004
Al-Zawahiri Vows to Keep Fighting U.S.
Top Usama bin Laden lieutenant Ayman Al-Zawahiri vowed in a videotape excerpt shown Monday to continue fighting the United States until its policies change. November 23, 2004
Jordan's military judge urges terror suspects to surrender
HAARETZ: Jordan’s military judge urges terror suspects to surrender A military judge called on Jordanian terrorist Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi and three other fugitives to surrender Tuesday, a step toward opening a terror conspiracy trial involving a foiled chemical attack that could have killed thousands. Why didn’t we think of doing that? November 17, 2004
Terrorist involved in Pearl kidnapping killed
JERUSALEM POST: Terrorist involved in Pearl kidnapping killed An Islamic militant wanted in connection with the abduction and beheading of American journalist Daniel Pearl was killed Wednesday in a police raid in Karachi, an officer said. November 01, 2004
Special Analysis: Osama's Message
Osama bin Laden’s recent videotape, combined with the recent message from Adam Gadahn/Azzam al-Ameriki, have left more than a few Americans and intelligence and law enforcement analysts puzzled as to what his apparent purpose is and why he would break cover this late in the game. This analysis will attempt to puzzle out the meaning of bin Laden’s statement on a point-by-point analysis, and what I think his objectives are in making it. I’m going to be using the MEMRI, BBC, and al-Jazeera transcripts of the excerpts that were broadcast on al-Jazeera on Friday, shifting between the three as differences arise. I should note that because we’re dealing with a non-Roman language (Arabic), there are going to be differences in how to properly translate some portions of the tape. If you’re familiar with all of the differences inherent in various translations of the Old Testament from Hebrew or Aramaic into English, we’re kind of dealing with the same thing here. Al-Jazeera is using the English subtitles provided by the al-Sahab propaganda company that produced the video in their translation. Egypt: Sinai bombings not linked to Al-Qaida
HAARETZ: Egypt: Sinai bombings not linked to Al-Qaida An inquiry into the Red Sea resort attacks targeting Israeli tourists did not indicate the bombers were linked to Al-Qaida or part of a wider organized militant network, Egypt said on Monday. |