The Command Post
Global War on Terror
June 03, 2004
New Scientist Report : Dirty Bombing 'Only a matter of time'
From the New Scientist via the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) :
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) records point to "a dramatic rise" in the smuggling of radiological substances, the raw material for this bomb, the British science weekly says in next Saturday's issue.

"In 1996, there were just eight of these incidents, but last year there were 51," the report says.

"Most cases are believed to have occurred in Russia and elsewhere in Europe.

"Smugglers target the radioactive materials used in factories, hospitals and research laboratories, which are not guarded as securely as those used by the nuclear industry."
[...]
Since 1993, there have been 300 confirmed cases of illicit trafficking in radiological materials, 215 of them in the past five years.

According to the IAEA documents, the true figure may be far higher. There have been 344 further suspected cases of trafficking over the past 11 years that have not been confirmed by any of the 75 states that monitor this activity.

The agency adds that there are still 1,000 radioactive sources that are unaccounted for in Iraq.

Of 25 sources stolen from the Krakatau steel company in Indonesia in October 2000, only three have been recovered.
[...]
Last year, Eliza Manningham-Buller, director-general of the British counter-intelligence agency MI5, said a crude radiological attack against a major western city was "only a matter of time," the report said.

Posted by Alan Brain at June 3, 2004 12:48 AM | TrackBack
Comments

A dirty bomb would not be that bad. The media would use it to cause a huge panic, but it would not kill many people, if any.

And longterm it might lead to a more realistic estimation of the dangers of radioactivity.

I would prefer a dirty nuke going off in my neighborhood to an anthrax or sarin bomb any day.

Posted by: The New European at June 3, 2004 06:44 AM

The truth about radiation is a lot tamer than most people think. Alpha and Beta particles have trouble penetrating clothing, but are dangerous if inhaled. A quality dust mask takes care of that.

Gamma radiation is, thankfully, short lived and can be stopped by around 18 inches of earth or a couple of brick walls.

Its actually possible to build a radiation shelter in ones basement for only a couple hundred bucks of building material you can get at a home Depot.

Me, I just keep a dust mask in the glovebox of my car. It will be useful in many differant situations. Look at all of the dust inhalation injuries incurred on Sept. 11th.

I feel its everyones duty to do their damndest to survive attacks. Lower body counts make for less spectacular headlines, and makes terrorism progressively less attractive to the enemy.

Posted by: HullBreach at June 3, 2004 09:34 AM

Not me...

I'd rather have a chemical or biological attack.

Of course, it's Hobson's choice either way, isn't it.


Far more worrying is the fact that it's far easier to build a crude fission device than most people realize.


I could build one myself. I would die in the process, because I don't know the first damn thing about how to handle radiactive material, but I could build a working device.

It seems that there is one main technological problem that is normall considered very difficult to surmount, but in fact it's quite easy if you don't have to build a military grade weapon.

For obvious reasons I wont go into details, but I DID check with an aquaintance who is a physicist, and he did confirm to me that my idea is quite workable.

The point is, my idea is very simple and would likely occur to many different people if they thought about the problem.

Beyond that, I don't think it's all that implausable that someone with sufficient funds could get ahold of a small device from the former USSR.

Posted by: eric at June 3, 2004 09:37 AM

From a Memo to Osama on the Belmont Club Blog

This is a PERFECT DESCRIPTION of "x", "Truth", Vince and Pass among others.

"Already the Jihad is siphoning away their younger members, those who have grown tired of Solidarity Marches and dancing in the streets without their trousers, and who want action of the sort that the Left can no longer provide. It is useless to remind them that their physical contribution to the fight will be paltry. It is their propaganda they do best and we should leave them alone to imagine us innocuous, misunderstood and exotically dressed victims even while we prepare to kill them in their millions. The Left will find a way to blame the dead themselves, a job at which they are surpassingly brilliant".

Posted by: leaddog2 at June 3, 2004 11:14 AM

The embedded terror factor in a radiological bomb is primarily psychological, and secondarily its use as a means of denying access to territory.

Both of those factors depend on (a) the radioactive materials being used (strontium is, for example, a whole lot more bother than other isotopes with a shorter half life and lesser absorption -- though it is more scarce and much more expensive), (b) the half-life of the material being used, and © the ease by which it may be cleaned up.

There are degrees of radiological bombs.

One could easily make one by getting some low-level radioactive waste and wrapping it around some explosive. Pretty much a no-brainer, as such things go. That is, in all probability, the first one most likely to be seen anywhere.

On the other end of the spectrum would be the use of some truly nasty radioactive was -- such as the sort that could come from spent fuel rods, cobalt radiation medical machines and the like. Only problem is, the use of that stuff is likely to kill anyone trying to assemble it. Which, in the era of jihad, might not seem like all that much of a problem. But the nastier sorts can do a Lot of damage in quite a short time -- which augurs against its use. The main problem is that it's damned hard to get one's hands on such stuff.

It's the psychological effect that carries the biggest hammer. With folks so bothered by the term Radiation (which bother stems from the ill-done Civil Defense discussions a generation ago, primarily, combined with a woeful lack of understanding of radiation, such that people are bothered by irradiating food products in order to handle salmonella, for example), any news item that would contain the term would be greeted with Immediate Horror by the populace.

As for stating a Preference for a radiological bomb over, say, a nerve gas or biological weapon, that's a Fool's Errand right across the board. A nerve gas will kill and leave territory undamaged, so it can be re-occupied within a matter of hours, a couple of days at most.

A biological weapon would have much the same sort of effect -- most biological agents degrade within a relatively short time under the influence of sunlight, rain and time if they are left in the environment unprotected. uV, for example, kills off anthrax nicely.

With nerve gas, folks die quickly, but the effects can't be passed on. With a biological weapon, folks take longer to die and depending on the agent, the victims become weapons. But unlesss either is used in a confined space, the effects dissapate rather quickly, as a general rule.

A radiological weapon, otoh, is a tad more difficult, and its territorial denial effects make it into a continuing phenomenon. Set one off in Picadilly Circle, for example, and depending on the material used, it could mean that central London would be uninhabitable for months, with some portions potentially uninhabitable for years.

The psychological effect of that would be a long-lasting reminder of the attack and its effects. And yes -- that really Does make a difference. A big one.

This is one of those cases where anyone expressing a specific preference for one sort or another clearly doesn't quite comprehend the full nature of the discussion. Such statements are silly at best, and demonstrate Ignorance of the terms of the discussion.

The one thing that is true is that it probably really is Only A Matter Of Time before some twit sets one of these things off. But then, pretty much everything is only a matter of time, if you wait long enough. The proliferation of things like the Anarchist's Cookbook et al a few years ago put that sort of information into the hands of any sociopath out there who might want to use it.

That would be Any sociopath.

Any at all.

The effect would be the same, regardless of source.

Posted by: Don at June 3, 2004 11:46 AM

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