I don't get it. Surely there would be listening devices scattered in every valley on the Afghan (and Pak?) side of the border and constant Global Hawk recon over this whole area 24/7! How can they just slip away into Afghanistan?

..you know this is getting pretty embarrassing,a guy in a wheel chair no doubt...with US special forces on the Afghani side,drones in the air,sat. zeroing in on the region...damn who said Houdini was dead..[;-0-<

Has there been anything else from TF121?

I had read earlier that a car had shot its way out of the Paki encirclement, but then that TF121 had taken out an escaping car and that they believed the target was in it, and were awaiting DNA tests and coordination with the Paki government on an announcement.

-BF

Real Easy Dog, I don't know if you have ever been in terrain of the sort we are talking about. Global Hawk type stuff works for a war, but as far as catching smugglers and such, forget it. Maybe if the smugglers are real, real stoopid. Move at night and you can spot a UAV by sight or using the infaraed seeker in a MANPAD. In the high mountains like that if the night is clear, there are zillions of stars out, you canbsee anything in the air by it blocking the stars, Or if there is a cloud cover, you can see the UAV moving against the cloud base. The human eye is designed to detect moving objects against a background. Once detected you can use a thermal blanket ( $4.99 at Wal-Mart) to get about 5 to 10 minutes of blockage of a human heat signiture. So you move in bounds. Find cover and look for your next cover, while part of the team is planning the next bound, the rest just lay back and look at the stars. If you have a SAM you can use the missile seeker with it's audio tone warning to help scan for UAV's. Not much range, but if you can'y pivk up a heat source in the clear cold sky, it is unlikly that the UAV will pick you up against the ground. Keep the thermal blanket in your pack so it won't pick up any body heat and if you are suprised lay down and cover yourself. The blanket will do what it is desiged to do and hold in your body heat. You olny have a short time before the blanket heats up enough to be detected, but UAV's have a narrow FOV ( think looking thru a soda straw), and will be out of detection range in a short time. Then you pack up and go. Foot patrols are more dangerous, but if you know thw terrain, you have a huge advantage. It is easier to hear someone searching then someone hiding or just moving. So the only real danger is from a small tean in ambush. And in that sort of terrain a 5 man squad can only cover a very small area. Yards not kilometers. So to cover a kilomete it migh take 30 or 40 teams. maybe a hundred in some places. Good ambush spots are known to both sides so the terrs avoid them. As they would for a hide with a good site range. No, the odds were all with the terrs this time. It would have been very lucky to catch anyone. Just to help the odds, I would have broken up my party into 3 or 4 man sections, That way when a section was spotted, the gunfre would have told me where the ambushers were. This is the sort of warfare the 'ganis have been doing for centuries. No way we catch them. It would be like your local little league tean beating the Yankees.

ableiter:

I'd ask you how come you know so much, but I get the impression that if you told me, you'd have to kill me. So I won't.

;-)

..cant dispute your points ableiter, I too kind`a been around if ya get my drift, and this was 20yrs ago..still this just blows my mind with what I know we had then and what we must have today it still boggles the mind..something smells,like misinformation;[;-0..could be??

So, what your saying ableiter is: The next time we confirm Terrorist in Pakistan are holed up in a mud fortress in Pakistan, The rumbling of B-52s carpet bombing it, should be as big a surprise to the Pakistan Army, as it is to the Terrorist.

If so, I agree.

Out smarted again, by cunning killers with a different rule book, than ours.

..can ya say MOAB..still have not seen what one of these babies can do,SHO NUFF THINK IT`LL BE THAT SHOCK n AWL THING`Y....

We can't even be SEEN in Pakistan, but I'm totally sure we were/are there right now hunting for this guy, who is actually more important than Bin Laden at this point in the game.

We have a real problem on our hands when Pakistan, just last week declared a "major, non-NATO ally" can't even be seen in their territory with us.

PS they got this guy and will reel him out in time for the election....

Not arguing with you Ableiter, just pointing out a few things.

First, I'd guess that from Wana, it's at least a hundred miles to the nearest Wal-mart or anyplace else you can purchase aluminized mylar.

Second, UAV's don't see people moving through tunnels, nightime or daytime.

Bin Laden picked up a good bit of earth moving equipment when he first came to Pakistan, and used it to set up his bases and training camps. He expanded natural caves and bored his own tunnels.

Still, if you drive your Landrover 10 miles west of Wana, and then enter a one mile long tunnel, where does that leave you?

Third, there is a very fundamental property possessed by a hammer than an anvil doesn't share.

Escaped?

I think not.

Time will tell.

;-)

Well, IF they were there, and IF they got away, you can bet wherever they went, has a backdoor. And when CNN, and 20th Century Logistic Trains announce your military plans, in advance, you aint gonna sneak up on nobody.

Mushariff gets to be a hero / heel, to both sides now.

Tails , Trains, whatever, its late.

I prefer AQ in Afghanistan anyway. I hope who ever was there (Wana), is now in Afghanistan. I have no doubt TF 121 is tracking every body that crossed the border. I only hope the Paks keep the pressure on on their side of the border and seal it off while we chase them down.

I agree with Jeffers. Let's wait and see what develops.

That's your misfortune, and none of my own.

Think on it, Texan.

I agree with several of the mentioned points. There is nothing easy in such terrain unless you have lived among it.
Practicing does not help that greatly. You must have been an actual resident of such terrain. Knowing what little that I'm privy to, I can say that we have far greater advanced technology than existed 5, 10, or 20 years ago.
Bin Laden has essentially constructed a maze which offer routes of escape. As recently as Viet Nam tunnels built by the VC actally led into villages in South Viet Nam where a hanful of the enemy were able to control small villages. They did so by terror and death.
These same tunnels consisted of kitchens, stockpiles of food and worse of all stockpiles of weapons and ammo. The VC made these tunnels their living quarters. Their philosphy was, "If we only kill one American to every ten of us, we shall win the battle".
Todays terroists believe in and practice the same philosophy. They use no modern technology but they know the art of survival. We will of course discover them in time. And it will take time.

ableiter

Zawahiri and OBL are not fit young fighters anymore but middle aged men. So as for darting around in the thin mountain air..I doubt they could keep it up for long. OK so they use donkeys/horses for transport that would throw a huge thermal signature. UAV's are about the size of a motorbike with wings and are 20,000 ft + up so they aint gonna see anything from the ground believe me.

Every valley and human passable roadway would or should have micro motion detectors and listening devices that relay a sequenced track back to base.

I agree with some of your points but I am still perplexed that they are not being pinned down so thay can't move at all and then finished off.

Jeffers: GIT ALONG LITTLE DOGIES

Keep em on the Move?

ableiter,

I'm not sure I agree with you. Admittedly, UAVs are moving towards greater stealth, but the heat signatures are not easily detectable by MANPADs, especially when cruising at altitude. Additionally, you cannot simply sweep the sky with a Stinger to detect an aircraft - too much sky, too limited range. This is especially true for UAVs which lack the huge signature of manned aircraft.

Additionally, the detection of a human body, especially one that is moving, is trivial. If the target remains stationary under a heat-masking shelter, he can remain undetected, but running across the cold earth, even if you wrap yourself in mylar, is going to generate a signal. Overhead cover from cliff faces can, of course, be used - but you will sacrifice mobility, and you have to be lucky with timing.

Global Hawk has better detection capabilities than Predator's "soda straw." The biggest problem is that few of them are available.

-BF

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