The estimates were based on "volume of fire" coming out of the besieged area.

He meant to say, "Sheesh, its gotta be more than a few dozen, but there's probably not enough room in there for 2000 fighters."

Early in this operation, a few (2-3) captured militant/tribalists claimed that Al Zawahiri was in the area. When other reports mentioned a white Landcruiser had run a roadblock, the possibility was raised that Zawahiri was in the vehicle because AQ leadership is known to use white Landcruisers. From later reports, the vehicle was found crashed into a mud wall a short distance from the roadblock. It is not clear from these reports that the vehicle was a Landcruiser. When the Pak patrol was attacked by well trained militants, it was considered further support for the idea that a high value target, possibly Zawahiri was involved. Subsequently, radio transmissions were intercepted stating that a friend (of AQ) had been wounded and that he required 4 persons to help move him and 12 persons to aid in his security, further supporting the idea that a high value target was involved.

Past engagement with AQ/Taliban troops have shown a pattern of the enemy laying down a heavy base of fire, gaining fire superiority, and then exiting the engagement area while the opposing force was heads down. In the course of several engagements with this group of presumed AQ/Taliban, they are not following the previously established pattern. Instead they have repeatedly allowed themselves to become decisively engaged without making use of a tactical retreat. This reinforces the Pakistani belief that the enemy is defending something it values highly. Prior to such an engagement, the Pakistani forces completed a tactical encirclement of the compound, and when the enemy continued employing the non-standard tactic of committed engagement, the Pakistani command formed the belief that whatever high value target was present before the completion of the encirclement, was still there after the encirclement.

On this basis, they believe that who or whatever the target may be, it is still inside the Pakistani's tactical perimeter.

In the larger view, who or whatever high value target may be involved in this series of engagements is decidedly inside the Pakistani's strategic perimeter, enforced by close to 40,000 Pakistani troops on thier side of the border, and an unpublished number of US and Afghan troops on the west side of the border.

All enemy troop numbers are necessarily estimations since no Pakistani troops have been inside the compound to date. Possible sources of information to support these estimations include HUMINT, SIGINT, rate and volume of enemy fire, number of discrete enemy firing positions, types of weapons in use, whether small arms or crew served, and aerial recon.

no spinning - here's what the Guardian's reporting right now
http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,12469,1174141,00.html

A few more details. A commentator on fox earlier today mentioned that there was a report that some bodyguards that typically hang around Bin Laden or Zawahiri are in the compound.

Michele, you didn't quote the part that mentioned Yo'ldosh! If in fact there is a high-value target present, there are decent enough reasons to believe it's Yo'ldosh (the leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan). Rather than list them all, I'll shamelessly promote my post on the subject.

I wonder if the Paks would mind if we dropped a MOAB in there?

If Pakistan lets these killers slip away, due to incompetence, or disloyalty / sympathizers from the troops and some commanders, I have some serious concerns over Mushariffs ability to maintain command & control over his Nuclear forces.

Be on the lookout for a terrorist attack in India. To force Mushariff to be under domestic pressure to shift troops to the Indian Border again.

If we cant operate inside Pakistan ( although I here several reports Task Force 121 is inside Pakistan ) due to the potential domestic turmoil for Mushariff, surely the radical Islamic element in Pakistan realizes they are going to have US troops on their border until we are satisfied that they are not harboring our enemies.

"PESHAWAR, March 20: Thousands of troops battling foreign militants holed up in South Waziristan on Saturday captured over 100 suspected Al Qaeda remnants
and their local supporters , a senior military official said. "The operation is under way and a house-to-house search is on. There is still some resistance. We made full use of our artillery and cobra helicopters. The operation
will continue till we have wiped out the entire bunch of them," he said.

Other government and military officials acknowledged that resistance from militants holed up in Shin Warsak and Kaloosha had dropped, but maintained that this
could either be due to heavy casualties on that side or they had changed positions.

The corps commander said his men had picked up intercepts from militants speaking Chechen, Uzbek and Arabic languages.

"They are highly trained and motivated," he said. "They are well-armed and well-equipped also."

The militants used anti-aircraft guns against helicopters flying overhead, he said. "They have everything, from assault rifles to anti-aircraft guns, mortars and rockets.
They have flame-throwers which could be used to set a house on fire or burn moving targets."

A Chechen fighter arrested on Friday had a book containing material on making explosive devices, the corps commander said. He said his troops had recovered
heavy weapons during the house- to-house search.

http://www.dawn.com/2004/03/21/top3.htm



"MIRAMSHAH, March 20: Three tribesmen were injured when they came under bombardment by US helicopter gunships in the Madakhel Wazir tribe's area , some
3km inside the Pakistani territory in the North Waziristan Agency, on Friday night.

The tribesmen were going home on a pick-up truck from the Lowara Mandi Bazaar when the helicopter gunships targeted them. The pick-up was destroyed. The
driver escaped unhurt.

The tribesmen were identified as Gulbat Khan, Gul Jamal and Shahi Khan.

Witnesses said some US helicopters intruded into the Pakistani airspace several times on Friday night and continued circling over the area.

Sources claimed that the militia personnel found a human head and other body parts while inspecting the bombed area.

Officials said they had taken up the matter with the US authorities in Afghanistan. The US commanders, they added, claimed that it was a 'navigational error'."

http://www.dawn.com/2004/03/21/top10.htm



And in lighter news...

"Islamabad: Khabrain in Urdu 12 Mar 04 pp 3, 9 [ANN report: "Dangerous Nuclear Material Gets into Al-Qa'ida Hands" ]



Mazar-i-Sharif -- The central wing of Usama Bin Ladin's Al-Qa'ida has acquired a briefcase containing nuclear and chemical material from the European black market and has
started producing nuclear missiles to attack the United States. A central leader of the Al-Qa'ida and Taliban in Afghanistan has disclosed this to journalists on condition of
anonymity.



Meanwhile, informed sources have confided that the United States and its allies are highly concerned that in spite of all out efforts, highly dangerous nuclear material has gotten into
the hands of Al-Qa'ida. An important figure of central wing of Al-Qa'ida had obtained this material from the European black market about a year ago after the US attack on
Afghanistan and it is now preserved in a briefcase.



According to sources, Al-Qa'ida intends to use this nuclear and chemical material to produce nuclear missiles to cause destruction in the United States. Sources say this material has
been moved to a secret place in Afghanistan where Al-Qa'ida's nuclear scientists are working on it in the presence of Usama and other prominent leaders. According to sources,
Al-Qa'ida will produce a nuclear missile in the current decade."



Pretty good deal on the black market briefcase. Not only chemical weapons, but enough core fuel to make ICBMs.

MIRVed of course. Anyone seen Baghdad Bob lately?

According to sources, Elvis is the chief scientist for the AQ WMD Project.
This whole long pointless exercise is just so much Bullshit. It's almost engough to make michelle's Montefort option look viable. "Nuke 'em all, god will know his own"

Ableiter, when did I ever say anything like that?

He must be mistaking you for me, michelle. :o)

Journalist says al-Qaeda has black market nuclear bombs

March 22, 2004 - 12:16AM

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Osama bin Laden's terrorist network claimed to have bought ready-made nuclear bombs on the black market, the al-Qaeda chief's
biographer has said.

Pakistani journalist Hamad Mir said bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, made the claim following an interview by Mr Mir with bin
Laden in November 2001.

Mr Mir said he told al-Zawahri it was difficult to believe al-Qaeda had nuclear weapons when they did not have the equipment to
maintain or fire them.

"Dr Ayman al-Zawahri laughed and he said 'Mr Mir, if you have $30 million, go to the black market in central Asia, contact any
disgruntled Soviet scientist, and a lot of ... smart briefcase bombs are available,'" Mr Mir said in an interview with ABC TV's Andrew
Denton.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/03/22/1079823250899.html




Not just Intercontinental MIRVed Briefcases, these are Smart Intercontinental Briefcases. I can just picture the Al Qaeda nuclear physicists hard at work over their calutrons and hydrocodes...by candlelight , in a remote mudbrick mountain safehouse.

Still though...that's two references to briefcases full-o-nukes out of Pakistan in two days. Recent terror attacks in Kashmir failed, and so failed to pull Pak troops away from the Afghan border, attempts to assassinate Musharraf failed, the attacks in Iraq, both Kurdland and Karbala failed to produce civil war, which means the main US effort is still in Afghanistan, and the moral victory in Spain failed to produce any reduction in combat power on the ground in Afghanistan.

If Al Qaeda is down to making up lies to try and save their encircled leaders, at least they should make up believable lies.

Yea, I'm sure Al Qaeda, has warehouses full of WMDs, that they have been holding back from using, due to moral concerns.

If nothing more is accomplished here, besides Pakistan getting a handle on the more radical tribes in its territories, this action will be a success.

How would we react to a briefcase nuke going off in Washington, or Tel Aviv. Bush should go on record now, with our policy: Any Nuclear explosion, anywhere in the world, will be considered an attack on America by North Korea and France. And the automatic retaliation menu option should be enabled.

RT Would that be a Pull-down or Put-down menu option? :o)

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