...while terrorism in South-east Asia has suffered certain setbacks over the past two years, it remains a threat. Terrorists are unlikely to be able to overthrow or endanger the survival of any government, but they have the capacity to inflict serious economic harm by damaging investor sentiment and the tourism industry.

In general, socio-economic and institutional weaknesses in many parts of this region remain causes for concern, but their impact should not be exaggerated. Socio-economic distress and institutional shortcomings are often not causes of terrorism, but provide terrorists and radicals with exploitable issues.

Radical Islam in South-east Asia is an import from abroad. It still has little influence in the mainstream of South-east Asian societies. Without the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan and the essentially Arab-based Al-Qaeda, there would be no JI of the kind we know in South-east Asia.

What happens to Al-Qaeda on the global stage and what happens to Islam in countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran will have an important bearing. Needless to say, so will the eventual outcome of the struggle now shaping up in Iraq, which is drawing radical groups from neighbouring countries, and its impact on US global policies and posture.