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June 10, 2003
Ethnic Politics
StrategyPage has some interesting analysis of the tribal-religious nature of the Iraq rebuilding process: The coalition strategy appears to be working out deals with the many self-serving leaders who have always been out to make a deal with whomever is in power. Among these are the many tribal chiefs. *** The Kurds are still very cooperative. Among the Shias, some religious leaders are willing to work with the occupation forces, while the more fundamentalist ones are being cautioned by religious leaders in Iran to be careful. With civil war brewing in Iran, the Islamic conservatives there don't want the Iraqi Shia Islamic radicals returning from Iranian exile to give the Americans any incentive to get involved in Iranian politics. The most active opposition to the occupation troops is, as expected, the Sunni Arabs who provided the base of Saddam Hussein's support. The Sunnis have ruled the region for centuries and will lose much if there is democracy in Iraq. The Shias and Kurds are 80 percent of the population and have so many grudges against the Sunnis that few Sunnis would get elected, or much else, from the government. However, a disproportionate number of college trained Iraqis and skilled administrators and managers are Sunni Arabs. Most of these, unless they went into exile, were members of the Baath party, and thus tainted and barred from government jobs. But these Sunnis will continue to dominate the economy, and thus dominate politics via Shia or Kurd politicians they gain economic control over. But it will be a generation or more before another Sunni Arab runs the country.Posted By James (OTB) at June 10, 2003 10:00 AM | TrackBack >>>>>Ever since Saddam took power, he has offered financial incentives for Sunni Arabs to move into the oil field areas, like Mosul, so that eventually Arabs would outnumber the native Kurds and Turkomen. Yeah, he also had a plan that helped de-populate the Kurds. Hey abdul! cheap housing in Kirkuk for you! it's safe, the gas clouds have dispersed. Posted by: jumpin jack at June 10, 2003 11:48 AMThe agents have usually disintegrated long before dispersal becomes relevant. Posted by: TBox at June 10, 2003 01:46 PMTBox! Since when did you become a GAS dispersal 'expert'? Curious. :o) Posted by: Teacher's Pet at June 10, 2003 02:47 PMOkay, you caught me. I have vague recollections of some story about the short half life of unconventional agents, and that's it. I do, however, read books on Strategy and Tactics for leisure, and know that the ideal weapon kills all the bad guys and none of the good guys, and the way they manage that with chemicals is to make sure that it's at its most potent when first released (when there are bad guys around) and quickly disintegrates in about the time it takes for the good guys to run up and start burying corpses. They're not quite *that* effective, but certainly this stuff disintegrates faster than simple wind dispersal can really account for... if only because if it didn't, it would multiply the affected area (because of that same wind dispersal) far beyond acceptable safety parameters. (Where safety is very specific to "the good guys," or rather, the guys using the agents) This wind dispersal problem is the main reason nukes aren't more common as tactical agents, you can't really control whom they affect. (Except for the most obvious immediate victims) Posted by: TBox at June 10, 2003 03:25 PMActually, TBox, for many years, military meteorological types, like Navy aerographers mates, have had included in their training just that; Is this really "rebuilding," or is it more like laying a new foundation entirely? Posted by: Jacques at June 10, 2003 07:53 PMYeah, wolf, into a storm they already know is there and know is heading towards their target. Takes care of the target fine, but where does the storm go after that? S'bloody mess, trying to anticipate the full range of radiological effects of a nuke... The day we can do that, I demand that my meteorologist always know when it will rain. Posted by: TBox at June 10, 2003 09:40 PMYou guys are scaring Jacquey! Look Jacque, no more monsters ...OK? I make the bad scarey monsters go away now, all right? Posted by: devils chewtoy at June 10, 2003 09:45 PMHey, don't blame me, TBox, I wasn't in a weather field, I was out IN the weather! Two thing I be larnin' durin' recess? NEVER piss into the wind. ALWAYS face into the wind when ya' PASS THE GAS! ;-) Post a comment
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