The Command Post - Iraq - Turks Still Consider Invasion

April 08, 2003

Turks Still Consider Invasion

From Wednesday's Washington Post, all is not quiet on the northern front:

ANKARA, Turkey, April 8 -- Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, chief of the Turkish armed forces, receives a briefing every day about the position and strength of Iraqi Kurdish militias advancing slowly toward the oil cities of Kirkuk and Mosul in northern Iraq. With the help of U.S. airstrikes and Special Forces, these pesh merga fighters have moved within 20 miles of both cities in recent days.
Turkey considers Kurdish control of the Iraqi oil fields a security threat, and if the Kurds enter either city, Ozkok will face the most important decision of his 44-year military career: whether to order an invasion of northern Iraq that could lead to clashes between his troops and those of the United States and its Kurdish allies.

In theory, Turkey's elected leaders have the final say over any deployment into Iraq. But the politically vulnerable and relatively inexperienced government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan almost certainly will defer to the judgment of the military, which has a long tradition in Turkey of intervening even in matters unrelated to national security.
Whether that should be of comfort or concern to the United States now is a matter of quiet debate in Washington and Ankara, where diplomats and others have been scrutinizing Ozkok's background and public statements for clues to what he might do in a crisis. Several thousand Turkish soldiers are already based in northern Iraq, and about 40,000 more are massed along the border awaiting orders....

Despite weeks of diplomacy, including a tense meeting last week between Ozkok and Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, Turkey has not ruled out a move into northern Iraq. Instead, it agreed to consult the United States before taking any action. Turkey has also warned that any move into Kirkuk or Mosul by Kurdish groups, even unarmed civilians, would trigger a military response. With the Kurdish fighters gradually seizing ground abandoned by Iraqi soldiers -- and the U.S. deployment in the north still too small to take the cities alone -- this is the scenario most likely to cause a crisis, Turkish and U.S. officials say.

"The closer the Kurds get to Kirkuk, the more worried we become," said one senior Turkish official, who asked not to be identified. "We've made our position very clear to the Americans. It's up to them what happens next."...

Posted By Christopher Rake at April 8, 2003 11:56 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Ozkok has no choice, he can't be stupid enough to challenge the U.S. militarely.

Posted by: ElCapitanAmerica at April 9, 2003 12:01 AM

History is, unfortunately, filled with stupid leaders. It's the smart ones that are remarkable.

Posted by: Christopher Rake at April 9, 2003 12:04 AM

Sure, go ahead and invade. After the way you yanked our chain for weeks, we'd just love to turn Turkey into Greater Kurdistan.

Posted by: SM3 at April 9, 2003 12:07 AM

Hmm, as Turkey is a NATO member state, this would cause some problems to say the least.

Posted by: Gary Gunnels at April 9, 2003 12:13 AM

Um, SM3, the Turks are not Iraqis. They're a fairly decent infantry force with not much mechanized stuff, but they don't need to have the mech, considering the geography there.

And, please recall that they have been one of our most reliable allies for fifty years...

And that they consider an independant Kurdistan to be a security risk to Turkey.

And that keeping an eye on the border is not the same as "considering invasion."

Posted by: Casey Tompkins at April 9, 2003 12:19 AM

Anyone other than me seeing some parallels with the Kurds in Iraq and the Jews in Palestine circa 1945? Think about it.

Posted by: Bob at April 9, 2003 12:21 AM

Yeah, come on in. We'll shove a fork up each one of you Turkeys.

Posted by: Frockensthien at April 9, 2003 12:25 AM

Casey, please note in second graf quoted in post: if the Kurds enter either city, Ozkok will face the most important decision of his 44-year military career: whether to order an invasion.

Posted by: Christopher Rake at April 9, 2003 12:29 AM

Why is the diplomatic and strategic thinking of so many Command Post participants limited to, "What are YOU looking at? You want some of this?"

Posted by: Bruce H R at April 9, 2003 12:34 AM

Why is the diplomatic and strategic thinking of so many Command Post participants limited to, "What are YOU looking at? You want some of this?"

First time posting in the internet, eh? ;-)

Yeah, come on in. We'll shove a fork up each one of you Turkeys.

Hilarious!

Posted by: ElCapitanAmerica at April 9, 2003 12:39 AM

It's just a sign of frusteration with the diplomatic process. I don't think anyone here really wants any kind of war with Turkey and I think the chances of that ever happening are so remote as to be not worth considering. We still have to work with our allies, we need Turkish support to help stabilize Iraq and keep it from disintegrating and to help manage Iran, if push comes to shove in that area of the world.

Look guys (and gals), it's looking like we are actually going to get what we want out of the invasion. It worked (it seems), we can now concentrate on stabilizing Iraq, setting up democracy, and getting out as soon as possible. Provoking a conflict with turkey is the last thing we need to do, even if the turks are being a little pushy. Let's work on this diplomatically. There are other ways to pressure the Turks - perhaps come down on the side of the Greeks on Greek-Turk disputes, and so on.

What the Turks are afraid of is a dangerous Kurdistan appearing in the former Iraq. The best thing we can do to avoid conflict with the Turks is convince them it's in their best interest to stay out of Iraq by pointing out that the presense of a turkish army might actually cause the fragmentation of Iraq, and getting 4th ID into northern Iraq as quickly as possible.

Posted by: spin at April 9, 2003 12:43 AM

Well, actually, by most objective viewpoints, the Kurds have had a much harder time than the Palestinians, yet have reacted in a much better fashion. AFAIK, their war against Turkey was mostly a guerilla war, not terrorism.

Anyway, I think this clearly shows that we've made a huge mistake in arming Turkey and treating it as an ally. Especially as this general is considered to be friendly towards the west (and in fact is, compared to the Islamist civilian government, and the other military, who apparently wants to cozy up to China and Russia)

Posted by: Jeremy at April 9, 2003 12:45 AM

The Turks aren't really afraid of a Kurdistan, so much as they simply hate the Kurds. They like them maybe a little more than Greeks, but they basically hate their guts. The Kurds mostly revolted in Turkey because they were treated like dirt by the Turks.

Posted by: Jeremy at April 9, 2003 12:48 AM

My point is the Turks can be dealt with in a way that doesn't involve military force.

Posted by: spin at April 9, 2003 12:53 AM

The Turks will put lots of diplomatic pressure on the US before they ever send troops in. The Post is trying to sell newspapers. This is a non-story as of yet.

If it does become an issue, it will be interesting - Germany is running NATO EC3 AWACS flights over Turkey right now. There's a quandry.

Posted by: phred at April 9, 2003 12:58 AM

"Anyone other than me seeing some parallels with the Kurds in Iraq and the Jews in Palestine circa 1945? Think about it."

Yes, Bob. The two cases are very similar. One exception is that the enemies of the Kurds are less likely to cooperate with one another than the enemies of proto-Israel were back then.

Jeremy: He was referring to Jews in British Palestine, not to the Palestinian Arabs. Also, the Turkish government is far from being Islamist. Even Erdogan is more committed to the separation of religion and state than many of the so-called "secular" Arab leaders.

Posted by: .e. at April 9, 2003 01:21 AM

a few errors:
"And, please recall that they have been one of our most reliable allies for fifty years..."

Turkey has been anything BUT a reliable ally inof the US. Being the most massive military aid recipient does not make Turkey an ally. We ended the Gulf One War at their threats, this is the laergest casue of the last 12 years of hell for Iraqis and the current war.

"And that keeping an eye on the border is not the same as "considering invasion.""

You didn't read the article at all did you? It quotes the leader of Turkey's Gerneral Staff - the most powerful man in the country - saying he is "considering invading."

"The Turks will put lots of diplomatic pressure on the US before they ever send troops in."

They already do have troops in, and sent in several thousand last week. you mean will they send the three divisions they are threatening?

Posted by: sixth fleet vet at April 9, 2003 01:52 PM