The Command Post - Iraq - Enter the Red Zone

April 02, 2003

Enter the Red Zone

The battle for Baghdad got under way today as American ground forces entered the "red zone."
United States Army and Marine ground forces advanced on separate axes into the swath of territory around Baghdad that is defended by the Republican Guard and has been characterized by American commanders as the most strategically vital and treacherous of the war.

Although still 50 miles or more from the capital, the attack brought the American military one step closer to its ultimate objective: capturing Baghdad and toppling the government of President Saddam Hussein.

It also ushered in a period of heightened risk for American forces. If the Iraqis plan to unleash chemical weapons, the entry of United States forces into the red zone — the area within artillery and missile range of Republican Guard forces defending Baghdad — is expected to be the trigger, according to American commanders.

I honestly don't think the Iraqis are stupid enough to use chemical or biological weapons -- but that's just an opinion.

Posted By Stephen Green at April 2, 2003 01:18 AM | TrackBack

Comments

Heya, Stephen, you're late!

Actually, I was just about to update the earlier post with a link to this NYTimes article, so I guess, technically, I'm the late one, now.

Posted by: Mac at April 2, 2003 01:28 AM

"I honestly don't think the Iraqis are stupid enough to use chemical or biological weapons -- but that's just an opinion."

When Hans Blix said this, we all made fun of him. Maybe he was right... and maybe French "neutrality" in this fight is actually a good thing, because it gives Hussein a reason not to use chemical weapons.

Posted by: Michael Levy at April 2, 2003 01:30 AM

As soon as Saddam uses chemical weapons, its over for him. The chance of his getting any international sympathy (outside of maybe Syria) is zero. Saddam never had a chance of winning militarily. His only chance is to make the international political situation for the United Sates so untenable that it has to withdraw. Once chemical weapons are used, that will never happen because the French will be on our side.

On the other hand, if Saddam really sees there's no way out, and that his political strategy will fail (which it assuredly will), he may use chemical weapons anyway in a last gasp at survival.

So, I predict Saddam will use chemical weapons, but not now. Instead he'll use them when the troops are already in Baghdad, fighting house to house, and bringing down the regime.

At that point, I'll be praying for the troops, and glad as heck I'm not there!

Posted by: joe hand at April 2, 2003 01:50 AM

Let me clarify a little.

I think SADDAM is crazy and stupid enough to use chemicals, but I'm not sure his henchmen will prove to be quite so willing.

Posted by: Stephen Green at April 2, 2003 01:54 AM

The Baathist thugs have murdered 3 million Iraqis over the last 30 years, and gassed 40+ Kurdish towns, including Halabja. Why would they have any hesitation to use their most powerful weapons? you're assuming that these people are rational, and have desires of a peaceful and prosperous life with fellow Iraqi people and America and Israel. They're not and they don't. I unfortunately expect the worst.

Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever) at April 2, 2003 03:35 AM

"Why would they have any hesitation to use their most powerful weapons?"

because the doctrinal and predicted time place of use has passed (in the rear areas at the start of conflict).

Chances are Saddam simply doesn't have any usable weapons. Don't get me wrong, I think he is in vilation of the UN resolutions and he would make them if he could, but I strongly doubt he has weaponized chem or bio.

by your own argument he would have used them already

Posted by: eric at April 2, 2003 02:35 PM