The good news, of course, is that the US Military has studied that incident as well and have learned from those mistakes.

I think it is absolutely possible. I also think that they are paying close attention to the strategic and tactical analysis given by all the retired military officers on the news channels and newspapers.

I am certain that they have learned quite a bit from these ex-officers in the US military, and I am sure that some of it may get put into practice to the detriment of our forces.

Still, wasn't the American/Enemy death ratio still something like 18/2000?

That would explain the proliferation of Toyota trucks with 12.7 mm machine guns mounted on them, and the tactics of the Fedayeen.

Then again, if this is true, it is quite encouraging. If the Iraqis are expecting the US to fight like it did in Somalia, and for George Bush to cut and run like Bill Clinton did, then they're in for a big surprise.

Hussein underestimated the US will to fight in Gulf War I. He didn't really believe that the Americans would invade Kuwait and Southern Iraq. I have no doubt that he has made the same big error in Gulf War II. Once again, he has bet on the wrong horse. This time, though, it will be a fatal mistake.

Unlike BHD, we won't go into Baghdad to "kidnap" regime leaders and then drive out with them in convoys!

Instead, once we have the intelligence of where some Ba'ath/military leaders are, we will just call in a JDAM strike. Soon they will fear us more than Saddam - the moment that happens, it's all over.

z

Devin, yes. And that ratio is compatible in this war so far. I don't think reading the book or watching the movie is going to give them any major insight as to how we will approach urban warfare in this war. The book, if one is interested, would provide a lot of insight into humanitarian aid gone awry. The operation in Mogadishu (sp) would give a lot of insight to any armchair gen. about what we would be up against if we walked or dropped troops into Baghdad as well. (The book covers tactics in depth, whereas the movie is so fast, it's harder to follow.)

If the Iraqi generals expect us to try to take thier city with 20 Helicopters and 160 lightly armed men, they are in for a real shocker when the first Abrams rounds the corner.

Now if Sadam could just get Bill Clinton back in the white house.

Pretty goddamned funny that the Iraqi military thinks that Hollywood is accurate enough to base a manual on.

Ironic, too, that one of the guys who did script doctoring for that movie has two warblogger sons...

(cough cough scottganz.blogspot.com siguy.blogspot.com cough cough)

And one warblogger soon-to-be-daughter-in-law. :-)

I think some are missing the point.

Black Hawk Down is one of the most popular movies among those who scorn America. As you may recall when the movie was released international there were stories of how many audiences outside the US cheered at the scenes of US casualties.

Facts are facts...the US withdrew from Somalia. One rather regularly hears of the US leaving Somalia, and more often Reagan's hightailing it out of Lebanon as examples of successful asymetrical warfare.

As far as the casualty rate, don't forget there were high civilian casulaties as well, and warfare in the modern world has more of a public political dimension than ever.

I think this war is just and we will win. But the current scenario as it is unfolding makes it obvious that the contingencies we are facing were not thought out.

We seeh "Black hawk down" as a story of heroic effort, but opponents of the US see it another way, they see the heroic effort of those taking down the US. Same is true for the meaning of "Shock and Awe" will no doubt become a metaphor for an ineffective bluff.

Wasn't one of the problems with the Black hawk Down raid the absence of AC-130 gunships and armoured vehicles?

Didn't the AC-130 do damn fine job in Afghanistan?

Isn't there a lot of armour in Iraq? And A-10s?

Bruce I would not count on ac-130s over Baghdad.

The Ac130 can easily be takne down by sam-7's which apparently number in the high thousands in the city. (hundreds were found near Basra yesterday)

RPG's, the second most common and cheap weapon in the world (after ak's) are in huge amounts as well. They can be extremely effective against our most advanced and armored helicopters.

This is not vietnam, no new tanks, apc's or planes will be coming Saddams way, BUT while Sam-7's are more expensive than RPG's but they are available everywhere and easily smuggled

AC 130, by their nature are used low and slow (they use cannon), amored vehciles like bradly's can be fairly easily disabled by RPG's, especially in urban combat. A-10's as well are probably the most dangerous fixed wing airaft to be flying in a sam-7 envirionment.

All this is to say that our equipment is based on tank killing. We can win at urban combat, but it will indeed look a lot like mogadishu, we just have to have the stomack for some very ugly casualties.