My question for any experts here: why wasn't the missile picked up by AWACS - Air Force or Navy? They should have look-down capability and doppler or other moving target detection capability.

Were the AWACS too far north? Was Navy AWACS (E-3?) too far south?

Are there any AEGIS systems in the vicinity? They should have been able to detect and engage the missile, although their detect range would only be a few tens of klicks.

Anyone have more information of a better theory?

CNN is reporting that it was a "SEERSUCKER". They also reported that first on the scene was the Czech NBC team.

SEERSUCKER, has a 100km range. Its possible it was launched from Iran shoreline or small coastal boats.

SEERSUCKER INFO ( via FAS)
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/c-201.htm

I thought the silkworm and the seersucker were one and the the same.

If it is either a Seersucker or Silkworm it would almost certainly have to come from the pennisula by Umm Qasr. This way it would be flying over the water and not near the patriot missiles.

The only difference I can see is the range of the weapon. The FAS writeup notes that SEERSUCKERS are often confused with SILKWORMS.

It's clear from the pictures that they are both the same class of weapon.

The bigger question is "Where was it launched from"?

"If it is either a Seersucker or Silkworm it would almost certainly have to come from the pennisula by Umm Qasr."

Wrong

A) a seersuker is a silkworm. seersucker is the us military designation for what the chinese call the silkworm

b) It most likly came from Iran. We have very good intel on these missles and Iran has many and Iraq has none.

Two guesses from an old surface warfare guy:

1) someone might have seen it but just didn't have enough time to kill it. or perhaps they had a shot at the end but didn't want to pickle off a bunch of friendly birds with a target too near a populated area. NOT a good CNN headline: "US Navy Cruiser attacks Kuwait city"

2) even though a silkworm is big compared to an exocet, sea skimmer birds are just plain hard to see until they get close, and it's very possible that no AEGIS platform was far enough north. probably a few FFGs floating around up there to soak up any yahoos with a small boat and RPGs that might sneak through.

Interesting sidenote: if a FFG HAD been in the right spot, it might actually have a better quick reaction shot than an AEGIS, because those good old "one arm bandit" launchers can aim horizontal, right at the sea skimmer, whereas almost all AEGIS platforms use vertical launch systems (the friendly bird has to fly straight up a ways before it can turn abound and get back to sea level)

Iran? maybe the Iranians are trying to get us back for cluster bombing all those poor Iranian fishing boats in DESERT STORM. oops, wasn't supposed to say that! nevermind

Iraq in fact has been reported to have Silkworms := Seersuckers. In fact, they have in the past try to extend their range.

Thanks for the info from the Surface Warfare guy. I once worked on the design of the Patrol Frigate, and it had the capability of detecting and engaging sea skimmers, but the radar horizon wasn't very far. As the Stark showed, the one time a Patrol Frigate was attacked by them (Exocets this time... thanks again, France), they failed to hit it and the ship was badly damaged.

The real question is why look-down air assets didn't see it. AWACS (Airforce and Navy) should have the ability if they have doppler radar. They might have more of a problem without doppler, due to sea scatter, but I cannot imagine that the Navy AWACS (E-3?) doesn't have doppler-based sea skimmer detection. I wonder if this attack will result in a change in Kuwait city defenses, with very close surface warships coordinating with AWACS. Of course, this may be Iraqi strategy... suck the screen ships in and then try to hit them with Silkworms and/or Exocets in one attack.

John:

dunno about AWACS lookdown capability. like i said they may well have seen it but just didn't have time to kill it.

BTW, the Stark was hit because both their ECM gear (to detect the missile's radar) and CIWS (to kill it in close) were not working correctly.

US Navy FFGs have successfully shot down incoming silkworms in the past, but, um, you won't read about it in any history books ...

Silkworm? Maybe.

Tomahawk? Maybe.

Some Kuwaiti officials who examined the fragments said they believed an errant American cruise missile had been fired from the Persian Gulf toward Iraq.

"It was an American cruise missile, we know from the markings and writing on it," said a Kuwaiti police colonel who did not give his name. "It doesn't go up, it comes in low from the sea, and that's why there was no alert."

Another uniformed Kuwaiti official said that he, too, believed the missile to have been American and said that it "came from the sea." He then added that "it was a mistake" that it had struck Kuwait.

-- NT Times

Well now, which is it? Fox TV reports parts of the missile had chinese writing on it. Fox web reports arabic writing. Some anonymous kuwaiti says there is english on it. Is it one of those top secret silk-scud-ahawks?

It's a multilateral attack? Iraq+Iran+China, with France+Russia rooting.

this story seems to have dropped off the news agency radar ... surely by now there should be an official statement on the type of missile, who fired it and from where.

If Fox TV and Fox web report two different things, I guessing that Fox didn't actually have anyone that physically put eyes on the wreckage. I'd be more inclined to believe the Kuwaiti policeman.

I watched the CNN coverage and the pieces that the police, reporters, and other miscellaneous folk were holding up (like prizes won at the local Fair), were definitely from a 'Styx' class missile such as the Silkworm. I saw a couple of these folks holding up the tail cone with most of the three empennage wings still attached.

This was NOT a Tomahawk!

Also the HY-2 Seersucker is an 'improved' version of the HY-1 Silkworm. It has a longer fuselage to accommodate more propellant.

The more important question is where did it come from?
No doubt from the caves in the Umm Qasr area since there were large stashes of them there in the 1991 war.
The fact that they didn't see it is not a surprise. Unless it is being fired 'at' you or close to you, a ship's defensive system may not detect it. I am certain that hole has been filled by now! There are probably a couple of CO's from more than one branch of the services that are steaming mad that this missile slipped past his defenses.

Have a good day everybody!