The Command Post
Iraq
March 26, 2003
U.S. drive to Baghdad - a mask for surprise attack?

In an unusual public airing of the next major military move in the war, British Prime Minister Tony Blair spoke this week of a "critical moment" to come when the U.S. 5th Corps meets the Republican Guard Medina Division on the approaches to Baghdad.

By Wednesday morning, every U.S. television news anchor was talking about the upcoming clash, giving it top billing as if it were a world heavyweight championship fight.

It may be that the U.S.-led forces believe they possess such overwhelming might that they can dispense with any element of surprise and simply smash through the Medina roadblock at the hour of their choosing.

Or it may be a feint.

There is an eerie silence in the north and west of Iraq.

Reuters has the whole theory

Posted By Gabriel Syme (Samizdata) at March 26, 2003 05:48 AM | TrackBack
Comments

*looks around innocently* HUSH YOU!

Posted by: Angus at March 26, 2003 07:31 AM

Sorry to bust this ballon, but I doubt this conjecture. It isn't based on facts. We know where all the major troops are. there is no way the fourth is going to do anything without their weapons which are ten days from Kuwait and three weeks from being fully offloaded.

A large number of troops are in the states. The decsion to have the fourth wait and then move down to kuwait has delayed the planned deployments from the states by six to 10 weeks.

what is more likly is that we are having more problems. there are increasing press reports of serious skirmishes and losses among the convoys much worse than yesterday.

All that said, the underestimation of the resistance, strength and determination of the Iraqis in the rear is not a profound setback. It is isn't going to change the outcome, just make it much bloodier than had been forseen.

Posted by: Mitch at March 26, 2003 09:31 AM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?