The latest line from C&E:
Sen. John Kerry (MA), 6 to 1I've posted the full analysis in the extended entry.
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 6 to 1
Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT), 8 to 1
Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 8 to 1
Sen. John Edwards (NC), 12 to 1
Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 20 to 1
Gen. Wesley Clark, 100 to 1
Sen. Joe Biden (DE), 100 to 1
Carol Moseley-Braun (IL), 500 to 1
Rev. Al Sharpton (NY), 500 to 1
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), 500 to 1
Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 5 to 1
Someone else, 10 to 1
Sen. John Kerry (MA), 6 to 1 (14.3% chance). For a long time, Kerry had been doing the best among the contenders. But his path to the nomination remains fraught with serious obstacles. More recently, he seems stalled, without a compelling message. (chances downgraded June 9 from 16.7%)
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 6 to 1 (14.3% chance). Gephardt opened his campaign on a very strong footing; his health care proposal is bold, dramatic and risky politically. So far as a candidate, he’s handled himself like a real pro. If labor gets behind him, he’ll be a big force. His chances shouldn't be underestimated. If he wins Iowa and Dean runs second, and if Dean beats Kerry in New Hampshire, it could become a Gephardt-Dean race. (chances upgraded June 9 from 12.5% and from 10% on April 17 )
Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT), 8 to 1 (11.1% chance; downgraded from 12.5% chance 7/1/03; upgraded from 10% 5/9/03). Though many activist Democrats view Lieberman as being too conservative – he’s running somewhat to the right of the field – and that hurts him with many constituency groups (i.e., labor, blacks, trial lawyers, environmentalists, etc.), he's handling himself very well. But his South Carolina debate performance was superb, and it gave his sagging candidacy new life and credibility. His inability to raise more money is troubling and indicates the limits of his ideological appeal within the party.
Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 8 to 1 (11.1% chance; upgraded from 9.1% chance 7/1/03; downgraded from 10% chance 5/9/03). Dean has the most grassroots enthusiasm of any candidate, and that counts in democratic primaries and caucuses. His anti-war position has given him substantial national credibility among liberals. However, since the Iraqi victory, some of his statements on foreign affairs and military issues are coming close to marginalizing his candidacy -- putting him into a danger zone. His recent money-raising has been very impressive and his appeal to the party's left base appears undiminished as a result of his poor appearance on Meet the Press.
Sen. John Edwards (NC), 12 to 1 (7.7% change; downgraded from 8.3% chance 5/09/03). Though Edwards is perceived by many pundits and politicians as the most effective candidate of the bunch, he’s yet to demonstrate significant voter support. His performance as a candidate has, for the most part, fallen short of expectation. Though his large base of financial donors among trial lawyers gives his campaign reach and depth, his lack of state-by-state polling strength is telling.
Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance; downgraded from 6.3% chance 5/09/03). He has great experience as a governor and three-term U.S. senator, and his geographic base (vote-rich Florida) is an ideal launching pad. But he’s yet to find much of a voice, or an appealing message, in this race. His announcement fell flat. Constantly mentioned as a VP possibility.
Gen. Wesley Clark, 100 to 1 (1% chance). Still mentioned as a possible candidate, but time’s running short on this novice politico. He did well on CNN during the war, and there are some Democrats who’d like to have a candidate with military credentials. Recent interviews show his tone, cool and positions are mostly right. Could end up running for the Senate or governor.
Sen. Joe Biden (DE), 100 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Hasn’t gotten into the race and may not, but could be an interesting late entrant if none of the top tier candidates get traction. His interest seems to have increased in recent weeks, probably because no other candidate has become dominant.
Carol Moseley-Braun (IL), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Though she has virtually no chance to win the nomination, her public appearances have been impressive. Her appeal to black women may garner for her a surprisingly sizable constituency.
Rev. Al Sharpton (NY), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance). He’s the best public speaker of the field; funny, hard-hitting, clever. But his controversial past eliminates him as a contender. Nonetheless, he will likely get more votes than most of the party’s Pooh-Bahs now expect.
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Known as Dennis the Menace during his disastrous term as mayor of Cleveland, he’s firmly on the outside looking in. He does have some strong anti-war, populist appeal among the party's left fringe.
Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance; chances downgraded July 1 from 20%). She’s not a candidate, and is likely to stay out of this race. But her potential appeal remains considerable within Democratic ranks (particularly among blacks and women). If none of the other candidates take off, there could yet be a draft in her direction; that’s why we keep her in the mix -- although the chance that will happen diminishes with time. She will probably pass up on 2004 as long as she believes Bush will be tough to defeat.
Someone else, 10 to 1 (9% chance)
Let's see:
Kerry - Lots of money, no message, unless you like the "Bush is a liar, Bush is not President" crap people like Alec Baldwin like to spew. Appeal limited to strong New England seaboard support. No legs.
Gephardt - Bold proposal: bankrupt the country with a senior prescription plan loosely based on the Weimar Republic and Ponzi schemes. Imagine going to the license bureau, staffed by public welfare officials to have your aneurysm looked at. His entire campaign prays every night the entire economy will tank. Another happy go lucky democratic wood sprite - always upbeat.
Lieberman - Two gallons of grey paint. Low-key socialism spoon fed to us for our own good. Bonus points: used to slap "Kick Me Hard" post-it notes on Al's back
Dean - Doesn't think democrats are leaning left hard enough. Might run with Castro or other appropriate "centrist".
Edwards - The Clinton Candidate: betting the American electorate is still voting for President the way they elected Prom King. Tall, with a full head of hair. Head is empty, but looks good. Picture him in a crown holding a football with a blone inside a bad paper mache heart.
Graham - Loses to Bush in Florida polls. Where is Janet Reno when you need her?
Wesley Clark - Would make a good general - for the North Vietnamese. Professional second-guesser and "administration critic". Probably agrees with Nancy Pelosi that we "could have pulled that statue down for a lot less" but - like Nancy, has no idea HOW. Just thought the sound bite played well.
Moseley-Braun - Looking forward to all those overseas junkets when she makes the House. Forgets the first Afro-American woman to be elected president will be to the right of Condoleeza Rice.
Al Sharpton - Campaign stops with Tawana Brawley should secure all those "OJ is innocent" votes for him.
Kucinich - Cut by the Browns last week, he'll try to catch on in San Diego as a punter. Just to the left of Trotsky, maybe he's just here to spar with Nader (when, inevitabilly, he appears)?
Hillary - Won't run, but has sent on winged monkeys to the Haunted Forest to slow down Dorothy.
Someone else - DNC praying for this guy. Anyone seen him? Note: his odds are better than all but 4 of the candidates.
Posted by: torpedo_eight at July 4, 2003 11:25 PMPolitics is a good idea, as that time is fast approaching, not only in America, but in Canada as well, so it might serve well for both neighborhoods in these interesting times.
Isn't this layout like CP was when you's first had CP?
I can't remember, But I think it had two colums like this.
I don't see any glitches. loads ok.
