SC local: Tenenbaum concedes

Inez Tenenbaum has conceded the SC senate race. That's a pickup for the Republicans of Sen. Fritz Hollings' seat which he's held for nearly 40 years.

Good night for Republicans in the Senate

After the Isakson pick-up, they have picked up Jim Demint… And South Carolina has finally been called for Bush, something of a troubling sign (or not, who really knows tonight)…

-Henry Hanks

Demint Wins Over Tenenbaum

Quick quip: Fox news is calling the Senate race between Demint and Tenenbaum at 51% reporting in favor of Demint.

Early Voter Turnout

Associated Press via The State:

Long lines formed at precincts across the state as the polls opened early Tuesday, and early reports indicated heavy turnout.

One report at a Columbia precinct had about double the amount of people in line compared with four years ago.

The parking lot at Dent Middle School was crowded and some 200 people were waiting in line when the polls opened at 7 a.m.

“It’s not normal,” said 75-year-old Timothy Evans Sr., a longtime poll worker. “Four years ago we had a little over 100 voters. It’s really almost double that amount.”

Poll manager Diane English, who has worked at Dent Middle for 12 years agreed. When she arrived at 5:50 a.m., people already were standing in line.

I’ll have to agree with Mr. Evans, voter turnout of this magnitude is abnormal in South Carolina. I’ll be casting my vote in an hour or so and I’ll give a heads up on the first-hand situation.

Crossed here.

Exercising the Franchise in S.C.

It took about 30 minutes for me to cast my vote this morning. Actually, it took about 3 minutes to vote, but 27 minutes to stand in line. In our rural precinct, they have new touch-screen voting booths. I liked the ease of use. The instructions were pretty straightforward, but I need that little piece of paper.

Turnout was heavy despite a drizzle and construction around the precinct voting place. I was surprised to find lines of people coming to vote at about 8:30 a.m. There were reports on a local radio station (WORD) earlier in the day of a couple of Greenville County precincts not getting started at 7 a.m., but it was only two out of 39. There were no poll-watchers or canvassers standing outside our precinct.

Moronski predicts...the Senate

Today in political punditry from Sean Moronski, he casts an eye over the US Senate races.

Every two years, approximately one-third of the U.S. Senate is up for grabs.  Currently, the GOP has 51 seats to the Dems 49 (including the so-called “independent” from Vermont).  In addition to help shape legislation and policy, this body is responsible for granting consent to judges, cabinet members, and other Federal officials.  Given the potential for several Supreme Court appointments over the next several years, control of this chamber may shape the Federal Judiciary for the next generation.

Almost every political observer believes the parties will swap seats in Georgia (to GOP) and Illinois (Dems win).  Putting aside the non-competitive races, there are eight races that will determine control of the Senate - four in the South and four west of the Mississippi in GOP country.  Of these seats, five are held by Democrats and three by Republicans.

North Carolina.  John Edwards chose to run for Vice President rather than face almost certain defeat facing reelection.  The Dem nominee is Erskine Bowles, former Clinton Chief of Staff, who lost a tough fight in 2002 to Elizabeth Dole.  U.S. Rep. Richard Burr has the GOP nod.  Bowles had a solid lead for weeks, but the race has closed to even in this solidly pro-Bush state. 

South Carolina. After 36 years of serving as Strom Thurmond’s junior Senator, Ernest Hollings is calling it quits.  Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint while the Dems are running State Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum.  DeMint is running as a big Bush backer in this hardcore GOP state while Tenenbaum is downplaying any connection to Kerry or the national Democrat party.  Probably a good strategy in a state Bush won’t lose.

Florida.  Another prominent Democrat, Bob Graham, decided to call it a career.  The White House asked Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez to run.  The Dem nominee is former State Education official Betty Castor.  This big race has been the sideshow in the media’s non-stop examination of the Presidential race here.  

Louisiana.  The wildest of wild cards with a unique open primary system that send the top two finishers regardless of party to a December runoff if no one candidate gets 50% plus one vote on Election Day.  GOP candidate U.S. Rep. David Vitter is virtually assured of making the runoff, polling in the low to mid-40s.  The race here is whether the national Democrats can prevent him from winning outright on November 2, as well as what Democrat would make a runoff.  Louisiana has never elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, nor has one served from there since Reconstruction. 

South Dakota.  Major race in a state with fewer than 800,000 people.  Home of Senate Democrat leader Tom Daschle, promoting his role as provider of Federal largesse instead of being Bush’s chief opposition in Washington.  Not unwise given that Bush is likely to win this state by at least 15 to 20 points.  His GOP opponent, former U.S. Rep. John Thune, lost a Senate seat here in 2002 by fewer than 600 votes.

Oklahoma.  Surprise GOP retirement opened up safe seat in a sure Bush state.  The GOP nominee, former U.S. Rep Tom Coburn, an obstetrician and anti-GOP establishment type, has made every mistake he can to turn a potential 25 to 30 point Bush lead into a horserace against the state’s lone Democrat congressman, Brad Carson.

Colorado.  Another GOP retirement put this seat in play.  Democrats nominated State Attorney General Ken Salazar while the Republicans are going with Pete Coors (“cold filtered… not heat pasteurized”).  Yes, that Coors.  Rocky Mountain Cold.

Alaska.  In a word — nepotism.  After being elected, new Governor Frank Murkowski had to appoint a successor to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated.  Of course he chose his daughter Lisa, a state senator.  This boneheaded move did the near impossible, creating a competitive U.S. Senate race in Alaska.  The Dem nominee is former two-term governor Tony Knowles.  This state has no business having a competitve statewide race in a presidential election year where Bush will win by 20+ points.

Bottom line… Dems must win 7 of the 8 races to gain control, or 6 if Kerry wins and Edwards can make himself useful and break ties.  All of these states were won by Bush in 2000, seven of them convincingly.  It can go either way… predictions next week.  

Sean is a former YR Chairman and political hack that successfully domesticated himself recently. His keen eye for politics has not waned as yet.