BBC Figures for states still in play

State - No of Precincts - Electoral College Votes

Nevada - 65% reported - 5 ECV
Bush 50.0
Kerry 48.4

New Mexico - 93% reported - 5 ECV
Bush 52.2
Kerry 46.6

Iowa - 97% reported - 7 ECV
Bush 50.0
Kerry 49.2

Wisconsin - 86% reported - 10 ECV
Kerry 50.0
Bush 49.1

Michigan - 76% reported - 17 ECV
Kerry 51.2
Bush 47.8

Ohio - 97% reported - 20 ECV
Bush 50.9
Kerry 48.6

Michigan has been included in the Kerry total in the poll results already, so based on these figures, it would be Bush 286, Kerry 252.

Minnesota/WI Exit Poll Data

      From KMSP, our local Fox affiliate in the Twin Cities, we hear MN going to Kerry in the exit polls, 52% to 46% for the Pres.  WI is tighter, 51% Kerry, 48% Bush.

      Apparently, almost everyone was eager to vote, as the polling places had no lines when the polls closed.  (Later: boy, that sounds dumb.  Let’s try again: Apparently, everyone in MN was so eager to vote they showed up early.  There were no long lines at the polls when they closed.)

      Some interesting other exit poll numbers: 44% of MN voters call themselves Moderates, 30% Conservatives, only 26% liberals.  For MN, that’s surprising.

      The party split is more what I’d expect: 38% DFL, 33% Republican, 27% Independent.

      26% of Minnesotans in the exit poll strongly approved of the President’s performance, 21% somewhat approved, 12% somewhat disapproved, 40% strongly disappproved.  25% of the Minesota voters said their biggest issue was morality, 22% the Iraq war, 18% terrorism.

      All things considered, I’m fairly sure Kerry takes MN, but WI is probably still in play.

CBS exit polls - Moral values important this year

Moral values is the major issue for 22 percent of the national vote this year. That's a surprise, considering the emphasis on economy and war. Economy is number 1 for 19 percent, and terrorism number 1 for 18 percent. Same sex marriage is a hot issue in this respect.

AOL exit polls favor Bush

here

US - Bush 57/41

Some state highlights:

FL - Bush 57/41
HI - Bush 58/41
MN - Bush 53/45
NV - Bush 57/41
NH - Kerry 50/45
NJ - Bush 54/44
NM - Bush 56/42
NY - Kerry 52/45
OH - Bush 58/40
PA - Bush 52/46
WV - Bush 61/37
WI - Bush 57/41

Of course, these are AOL numbers, and I’m sure they’re hardly representative, so I wouldn’t recommend using them to place any bets :)

Heh, if it was just up to AOL voters (360,000+), then Bush would win the election 481/54/3 (no data for Delaware).

The only states that AOL delivered to Kerry were NY, VT, NH, MA, RI.

I wonder what it is about AOL users that make them more pro-Bush?

Volitile Markets

The Presidential Markets have reversed themselves, most likely as a reaction to early exit polls that appeared favorable to Bush.

Presidential Markets:
Intrade: Bush -20.0 / Kerry +20.5 (today’s change)
Iowa: Bush +.16 / Kerry +.007 (today’s change)

CNN Releases "Partial Exit Poll Results"

This just on CNN TV, which is reporting partial exit poll results

• Top issues to Kerry voters: economy/jobs (32%) and Iraq (23%)
• Top issues for Bush voters: moral values (35%) and terrorism (33%)
• 81% of Kerry voters dissaprove of going to war in Iraq, and 88% of Bush voters approve of going to war in Iraq.
• Not confident their vote will be accurately counted: 5% of Bush voters, 13% of Kerry voters
• 1 in 7 voters today say the DID NOT vote in the 2000 presidential election

It seems CNN has and has crunched the numbers, but is keeping the returns under embargo. They’re just wetting our whistle with these numbers …

GRAIN OF SALT: "Leaked" Exit Polls Showing Kerry Strong

This over at The Blue Lemur, part of the Raw Story news site:

Here are the first exit polls, confirmed from sources in both parties, as leaked to RAW STORY. The first number is the percentage of voters supporting Kerry, the second are those supporting Bush.

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48

A second round of polls, conducted by the Kerry campaign, show similar trends, also suggesting the senator will will New Mexico and New Hampshire.

MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

Again, GRAIN OF SALT WARNING … let’s not forget that Florida changed hands four times in four hours in 2000 …

Drudge's Siren: Kerry Liking First Wave of Exit Polls

[Drudge grain of salt warning in effect, which is upped to two grains of salt if the siren is wailing]

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE…. National Election Pool — representing six major news organization — shows Kerry in striking distance — with small lead — in Florida and Ohio.. MORE…

Developing, as he says.

What about the Presidential Markets?

Last Presidential Market show steady gain for Bush this morning.
Presidential Markets (11:44 AM):
Intrade: Bush +4.3 / Kerry -3.6 ( today’s change)
Iowa: Bush +.21 / Kerry -.01 (today’s change)

The Chicago Report will be tracking the Markets all day.

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 11-1

Reuters reports today’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states. This tracking polling which began on Sunday:

Kerry led in six states won in 2000 by Democrat Al Gore — Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and Bush led in Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, which he won in 2000.

Bush and Kerry were tied at 48 percent in Florida, site of a bitter 36-day recount dispute that gave the presidency to Bush in 2000.

From California Yankee.

Towns Bracing For Surge In Special Ballots

November 1, 2004
By CHRISTINE DEMPSEY, Courant Staff Writer

During the last presidential election, busloads of Wesleyan University students converged on Middletown City Hall to cast so-called “presidential ballots,” a special type of ballot that allows unregistered voters a last-minute chance to vote for president and vice president.

READ IT HERE

NBC/WSJ and Reuters: Bush 48%, Kerry 47%

Just reported on MSNBC TV, both the NBC/WSJ and Reuters/Zogby polls have, among likely voters:

• Bush 48%
• Kerry 47%
• Nader 1%

This still leaves 4% undecided.

How The Age Groups Break

Age group breakdowns, via CNN TV:

• 18-29: 37% Bush, 58% Kerry
• 30-49: 54% Bush, 43% Kerry
• 50-64: 50% Bush, 46% Kerry
• 65+: 45% Bush, 50% Kerry

Keep an eye on young-voter turnout … it (along with the weather) may be the key to the election.

Kerry Makes Ground On Terrorism Issue

CNN/Gallup (via CNN TV), asking “who would better handle terrorism?”

• On Oct: 22-24: Bush 59%, Kerry 37%

• Now: Bush 54%, Kerry 43%

CNN speculates that the recent OBL actually hurt Bush on this issue, as it reminded many that OBL is still at large.

Poll Of Polls Has Bush By 2 Points

A CNN TV meta-analysis of eight national polls has:

• Bush 48%
• Kerry 46%

… but makes no account for the 4% undecideds.

Final CNN/Gallup Poll: Bush By 2 Points, BUT ...

The final CNN/Gallup national poll, via CNN TV:

• Bush 49%
• Kerry 47%
• Nader/Other 1%
• Undecided 3%

+/- 3 %.

BUT … when Gallup makes its statistical estimate of how undecideds will break, the race is …. DEAD EVEN:

• Bush 49%
• Kerry 49%
• Nader 2%

Buy lots of beer folks; tomorrow night’s gonna’ be a long night.

Paugus Diner Poll^©

I’ve finished tallying the results for the latest (and last) Paugus Diner Poll^© of this election season. I must remind you that this is by no means a scientific poll. I have no idea what the margin of error might be. All I did was ask random people in and around the Paugus Diner in Laconia, New Hampshire if they were going to vote in the upcoming election here in New Hampshire (I didn’t want to skew the results with respondents from out of state). If they answered “Yes”, I asked which Presidential candidate they were going to vote for. Once I had 100 responses I stopped. (Hey, it’s easier to calculate percentages if I use a sample of 100…)

The results:

Bush: 52%

Kerry: 46%

Nader: 1%

McCain: 1%

I did remind the one respondent that John McCain wasn’t running, but he didn’t seem to mind because he was going to write in his name on the ballot.

Again, a reminder: This is not a scientific poll. It was taken in one small area of New Hampshire along the shores of Paugus Bay on Lake Winnipesaukee over a period of two days.

Cross-posted to Weekend Pundit.

Um, About Those Late-Breaking Undecideds . . .

Rasmussen has the good news for President Bush:

Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. This obviously includes some who decided to vote for anybody-but-Bush since 36% of voters made up their mind before the Democratic nominee was selected.

The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.

Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President’s direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.

There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.

At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won’t change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not vote).

Gender Gap Replaced by Marital Gap

New ABC News Poll finds that this year the electorate is divided more along marital lines than gender lines:

Men support George W. Bush over John Kerry by an eight-point margin in the latest ABC News tracking poll, while women are split between the candidates. In 2000 there was a bigger difference between the sexes: Bush +11 among men, Al Gore +11 among women.

[. . .]

Married voters — men and women — are strong Bush groups: Married women support him by 19 points, 56-37 percent, and married men by 22 points, 59-37 percent. Kerry, though, is favored by six in 10 single men and women alike.

From California Yankee.

Tracking Poll Update

Bloomberg reports that the Reuters/Zogby tracking poll now shows President Bush tied with Kerry, while the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows President Bush with a three point lead.

From California Yankee.

REUTERS Poll: Kerry 46%-Bush 45%

More polling data, this time from Reuters/Zogby. It’s important to note that this poll wrapped BEFORE last night’s debate. Details:

• Kerry leads Bush by 46-45 percent
• Kerry seems to be solidifying his base: He earned support from 83 percent of Democrats, 88 percent of blacks, 79 percent of Jews and 65 percent of single voters. Kerry led by a 2-to-1 margin in union households.
• Bush, too, is solid in his base: He had support of 87 percent of Republicans, 51 percent of investors and 53 percent of married voters
• The candidates were locked in dead heat among Catholics and households with armed forces members

The national poll of 1,216 likely voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

TIME Poll: 45% Bush – 45% Kerry

Also, Kerry leads among women, in “likeability,” and the Veep debate had little to no impact. From Noticias.info (Spain):

George Bush and John Kerry are again deadlocked, 45% Bush – 45% Kerry, among likely voters in the three-way race, as they head into tonight’s town hall meeting, according to a TIME Poll taken Oct. 6-7. Nader is down to 3%.

On being “likeable,” a key strength for Bush in 2000, Bush now trails Kerry, 70% - 65%. (Bush had a slight 4 point lead on likeability before the debate.) Bush still leads Kerry by a wide margin, 81% - 42% on “sticking to his positions.”

Just before the first debate last week, Bush was up by 6 points among likely voters in the TIME Poll. Kerry’s win last Thursday (59%-23%) not only tied the race, but 30% of voters said that they were more likely to vote for Kerry because of the debate. This compares to only 14% more likely to vote for Bush.

A key reason for Kerry’s resurgence was that he recaptured a large lead among female voters. Females now support Kerry over Bush by 12 points, 50%-38%. Pre-debate, the TIME Poll found women split evenly, 44% Kerry, 43% Bush. By contrast, in early August, Kerry led among women by 14 points. Bush is now up 16 points among males, 51% Bush, 35% Kerry.

Tuesday’s vice presidential debate between Dick Cheney and John Edwards had little impact, according to the TIME Poll. Despite Cheney’s small winning edge over Edwards (33%-28%), equal numbers of voters said the debates made them more likely to vote for Bush (15%) or Kerry (16%), and 68% said it had no impact.

Methodology: October 6-7, 2004 among a random sample of 1211 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1024 reported registered voters and 886 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

Likely voters reported party identifications are 36% Democrat, 32% Republican, 23% Independents. Registered voters party affiliations are 36% Democrat, 31% Republican, 24% Independent.

American Research Group Poll: Bush Leads Pop. Vote; Kerry Leads in E. College

ARG has released their new poll, which is notable for the size of its sample: 600 interviews with likely voters in each state and DC. This is an enormous overall sample, and a very large sample within each state as well.

The results:

• George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
• Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
• Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
• Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
• Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
• Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.

54-40, or Fight?

So, is the race close or not? National polls - which, one should recall, only capture the mood of the electorate, since the battle is won or lost on a state-by-state basis - seem to be divided:

A new poll from the Pew Research Center said the “bounce” that seemed to propel Bush to a lead just after the Republican convention had disappeared. But he was ahead by double digits in another survey.

The Pew poll found the race at 46-46 among registered voters, and 47-46 Bush among likely voters. A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent.

(Link via The Kerry Spot)

Bush Camp Claims To Have Lead In Colorado

If you’ve been following the state-by-state polls, you may have noticed an anomaly: Colorado, a historically (though sometimes narrowly) Republican-leaning state hasn’t budged from polls showing it as a dead heat a week or two before the GOP convention. One reason: there don’t seem to be new polls in the state since then.

Well, take this with whatever grain of salt you consider appropriate, but Bush campaign pollster Matthew Dowd told the Denver Post on Sunday that the campaign’s internal polls have Bush leading:

As Bush prepares to visit Colorado this week with a newly sizable lead in the national public opinion polls, Dowd is on the hunt for premature elation.

“We are winning in Colorado outside the margin of error right now,” Dowd acknowledges - meaning that the Bush lead is more than five or six points but not yet double digits - in post-convention polling in the state.

But Colorado “is a state we are going to keep a very, very close eye on,” he says. It’s not yet painted red. That is why Bush is visiting.

Dowd . . . cites two demographic changes that are altering the face of national elections in the West, threatening the president’s prospects here.

“The fastest-growing voter population in Colorado is the Hispanic population, which - while Republicans are doing better and better each year - is still a group that leans Democratic,” he says. “That is one reason it is taken from a Republican state that people used to count on in the Electoral College to now one of those states you are going to have to fight for and not take for granted.

“And two … is the growth of married women who work outside the home,” Dowd says. They lean more Democratic than stay-at-home moms.

Those factors have also helped put Nevada and Arizona on the list of battleground states, along with New Mexico.

“Nevada and New Mexico will be contested all the way until Election Day for sure. I don’t know if Colorado will stay on that list or not. It may be a state where in October we are doing fine,” he says.

John Kerry’s campaign has not yet resumed advertising in Colorado, Dowd notes hopefully, though it has promised to do so later in the fall.

But only in Arizona, Dowd says, is the Bush-Cheney campaign feeling secure. “There is a public poll there that has us up 16, and I will say that is consistent with what we are seeing,” he says.

Bush 52-43 in WaPo/ABC News Poll

The new post-convention Washington Post/ABC News poll is out, and the breakdowns are not good news for John Kerry:

Bush 52-43 in three way race, likely voters
Bush 50-44 in three way race, registered voters
Bush 50-46 in poll of 19 battleground states
90% of Bush supporters “strongly” support Bush
75% of Kerry supporters “strongly” support Kerry
Bush supporters pro-Bush 84-14
Kerry supporters anti-Bush (as opposed to pro-Kerry) 55-41
Bush job approval rate 52%
Bush favorable/unfavorables 51-39
Kerry favorable/unfavorables 36-42
#1 issue economy/jobs 27, terrorism or Iraq 43 and rising
Bush beats Kerry on economy 47-43
Bush beats Kerry on Iraq 53-37
Bush beats Kerry on terrorism 57-35
Bush beats Kerry on judicial appointments 46-36 (!)
Bush beats Kerry on “will make the country safer and more secure” 54-35
Bush beats Kerry on “He’s taken a clear stand on the issues” 56-29
Bush beats Kerry on who’d be better commander-in-chief 53-40
Bush beats Kerry on who is expected to win 63-26
Iraq war was worth fighting 51-45
Iraq war is part of war on terror 58-39
We are winning the war on terror 55-25

Read the full WaPo analysis here.

Electoral Bounce

Zogby is reporting:

Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry remains solidly in the lead after a week in which his party and candidacy grabbed the political spotlight at their national convention in Boston, a new edition of Zogby Interactive polls in 16 battleground states shows.
After a string of good news for the Kerry campaign stretching back to the selection of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as the vice presidential running mate a month ago, he leads in the Electoral College by a 291-215 margin, the individual state polls shows. Four of the 16 states in the poll collection - with a combined total of 32 electoral votes - were excluded from the calculation because the races there are too close to call.

Those states are Missouri (11 votes), Nevada (5 votes), Tennessee (11 votes), and New Mexico (5 votes). Mr. Bush won all but New Mexico four years ago.

Mr. Kerry picked up ground in Florida, while Mr. Bush made up ground in West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ohio.

Lest anybody is living in a cave, we got ourselves a horse race.

Poll Position: Rasmussen Tidbits

From yesterday’s Rasmussen Report, some stats to chew on:

• 51% Say Finishing Iraq Mission Top Priority

Fifty-one percent (51%) of American voters say that making sure Iraq becomes “a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy” is more important than bringing home American soldiers right away…..39% believe bringing home the troops as soon as possible in more important.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of all voters think that John Kerry believes bringing home the troops is more important. Just 29% think Kerry places a higher priority on insuring a successful conclusion in Iraq.
Eighty-three percent (83%) believe Bush places a higher priority on finishing the mission. Just 8% believe Bush is more interested in bringing home the troops as soon as possible.

• Bush vs. Kerry on War

(From Friday) When it comes to the War on Terror and national defense issues, voter preference for Bush over Kerry remains near its lowest level of the year.
A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 49% of voters trust President Bush more than Senator Kerry on this issue. That’s just one point above Bush’s lowest level of the year.
Forty-five percent (45%) now prefer Kerry. That’s unchanged from from last week and the highest level of the year for the Senator.
Most significantly, a plurality of unaffiliated voters now prefer Kerry over Bush on national defense issues.