Election review: State House

(Cross-posted at www.batesline.com)

Republicans won 9 (possibly 10, pending a recount) out of the 23 open Oklahoma House seats previously held by Democrats, plus they replaced incumbent Democrat Roy McClain with Dan Sullivan in House 71 (a 13 point margin). Republicans lost one incumbent — Stuart Ericson (HD 13) was swamped by a Brad Carson turnout push in the Carson’s 2nd Congressional District and lost to Jerry McPeek by 347 votes (3%). A net pickup of 8 gives Republicans 57 seats to 44 for the Democrats. If David Schaffer (HD 78) prevails in a recount, the score would go to 58-43, just nine votes short of a two-thirds majority.

SoonerPoll.com made their State House picks last week and even polled 17 key races — 13 open Democrat seats, two incumbent Democrat seats, and two open Republican seats. Let’s compare their picks to the results in open Democrat seats (SoonerPoll rating in parentheses after the seat number, and poll result where available, MOE +/- 4.4%).

SoonerPoll.com came very near the result (within MOE) in Districts 10, 12, 55, 59, 64, 78, and 92. They didn’t poll a couple of races that turned out to be upsets — Districts 5 and 42, which were rated likely D but went Republican, and District 13, a likely R seat held by an incumbent that went D. In some cases, they got the winner right but were way off on the margin — like HD 30, and HD 33, supposedly a 1.5% leaner, which ended up a 28 point landslide.

Other “leaning D” seats went heavily for the Republican: In HD 27, they polled it as leaning D by 2.7 but it was won by the Republican by 12 points. The two open Republican seats they had as leaners, but the Republicans won by double-digits.

I give a lot of credit to SoonerPoll.com for making the effort to poll these races and making the result public. There are some improvements to be made, either in their likely voter screen or their random selection method. The Republican GOTV effort probably accounts for the bigger-than-expected margins.

Race-by-race info after the jump.

HD 5 (Likely D) — SoonerPoll.com didn’t poll this seat, rated it “Likely Democrat” — Grove physician Doug Cox ® got 56% of the vote in this Grand Lake area seat.

HD 8 (Likely D) — Ben Sherrer (D) with 62% of the vote.

HD 10 (Leaning R, 3.9%) — Steve Martin ® beat the incumbent’s wife by 4.7% in Washington, Nowata, and Osage Counties.

HD 12 (Leaning D, 1.2%) — Wade Rousselot (D) beat Mark Wofford by 1.6%, 239 votes in this Wagoner County seat. The growth of Broken Arrow and Coweta as suburbs is making Wagoner County more Republican, but not quite enough yet.

HD 16 (Likely D) — Gerry Shoemake (D) with 73% in Okmulgee, Muskogee, and Wagoner Counties.

HD 19 (Likely D) — R. C. Pruett (D) with 79% deep down in Little Dixie.

HD 22 (Likely D) — Wes Hilliard (D) succeeds his Uncle Danny with only 57%. In Murray County (named for Alfalfa Bill), that’s practically a win for the Republicans.

HD 27 (Leaning D, 2.7%) — Shane Jett ® by 12 points — 54% to 42%. Jett, 29, lost this Shawnee seat to the incumbent (term-limited this year) by just 122 votes two years ago.

HD 28 (Leaning D, 4.1%) — Law student Ryan Kiesel (D) won Dan Boren’s old seat over Seminole mayor Billy Choate, 57-43.

HD 30 (Leaning R, 2.8%) — Brian Bingman ®, former Sapulpa mayor, with a 12 point win — 56% to 44%.

HD 33 (Leaning R, 1.5%) — Lee Denney ®, wins 61% to 39%. She served as Mayor of Cushing. (Beginning to see the importance of electing Republicans at the local level?)

HD 42 (Likely D) — Lisa Billy ®, a teacher and former Chickasaw tribal legislator, scored a 13 point win in this seat in Garvin and McClain Counties.

HD 49 (Likely D) — Stillwater resident and OSU rodeo coach Terry Hyman (D) parachuted into this far-south-central Oklahoma district, beating local long-time Republican leader Wanda Cruson, 60-40.

HD 52 (Likely D) — David B. Braddock (D) wins this one 55-45.

HD 55 (Leaning R, 3.2%) — Ryan McMullen (D) beat John English ®, son of former conservative Democrat Congressman Glenn English, by 163 votes, or 0.7%, out in west-central Oklahoma.

HD 56 (Leaning D, 1.8%) — Phil Richardson ® won by 16 points — 58% to 42%. The district stretches from Caddo County, through part of Grady County, and up into Canadian County to grab some of Oklahoma City’s suburbs.

HD 59 (Leaning R, 4.1%) — Rob Johnson ®, a staffer for U. S. Rep Tom Cole, won by 6 points in this west-central Oklahoma district.

HD 64 (Leaning D, 0.9%) — Ann Coody ® — former Lawton MacArthur High School principal — won by 2.6% in once solidly Democratic Comanche County.

HD 73 (Solid D) — Jabar Shumate (D) wins this heavily Democratic north Tulsa district with 87% of the vote. Republican Sharla Walker has good community credentials, and I saw more yard signs for her than I would have expected, but registration trumps all in District 73.

HD 78 (Leaning D, 2.1%) — Jeannie McDaniel (D) lost in the in-person voting, but did well enough in the absentee balloting to win by 34 votes. That’s the second squeaker this year in Midtown Tulsa involving a crony of former Mayor Susan Savage — former Fire Chief Tom Baker (D) won reelection to the City Council by only 24 votes. David Schaffer ® is giving serious thought to paying for a recount, and I think he should. While the Republicans don’t need this seat for a majority, they do need a cushion — and if McDaniel did in fact win this seat, she will be as hard to dislodge as Mary Easley, and may very well use the seat as a launching pad for higher office.

HD 86 (Likely D) — John Auffet (D) won with 61% in the seat formerly held by House Speaker Larry Adair.

HD 92 (Leaning D, 1.5%) — Attorney Richard Daniel Morrisette (D) won by 263 votes — 3 points — in southern Oklahoma City.

HD 97 (Likely D) — Mike Shelton (D) won 67-33 over Harold Roberts, in northeast Oklahoma County.

State races -- No surprises, all propositions pass

Republican Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode has won re-election handily, leading 64-36 with about 90% of precincts in.

All supreme court and appeals judges on the non-partisan retention ballot have been approved for another term, with winning percentages ranging from 69 to 72 percent.

The nine propositions on the ballot are all passing. The lottery (705) is passing two to one, allowing Indian casino gaming (712) is passing with 60%, the marriage amendment (711) is passing three to one. The only two propositions that are anywhere near defeat are 707 and 713. 707, which allows local governments to borrow against future receipts from tax-increment finance (TIF) districts, is only passing 51-49, a margin of about 30,000 votes. 713, which would end the sales tax on tobacco and enact a new state tobacco tax, is passing 53-47 — a comfortable margin, but not overwhelming.

Legislature -- GOP set to win House, just short in Senate

Ordinarily Oklahoma would be near 100% reporting to the state election board, but results have been excruciatingly slow to come in to the state election board from Tulsa and Oklahoma Counties — the two largest counties in the state and two Republican strongholds. Unofficial results collected by Republican legislative campaigns, combined with state election board results point to a 7 seat gain for Republicans, which would give the GOP a majority of 55-46 — the first Republican House majority in 82 years. A three-seat Republican gain in the State Senate will leave Democrats in control by a margin of 25-23.

House District 78, an open seat in midtown Tulsa, is very close. With all precincts collected by the Schaffer campaign, Republican attorney David Schaffer is leading Democrat city employee Jeannie McDaniel by 28 votes, but that total does not count absentee ballots or provisional ballots. The word is that absentee ballots may not be fully counted until Thursday. If the result holds, this would be a pickup for the Republicans in a district that is even in registration, but which has been represented by a Democrat for the last eight years.

In House District 13 (Muskogee County), it appears that incumbent Republican Stuart Ericson will be defeated by Democrat Jerry McPeak. Ericson won his first race in this heavily Democrat district in 2000. It appears that a massive turnout effort by Democrat Senate candidate Brad Carson swamped Ericson’s reelection effort.

Republicans appear to have won House 10 (Washington, Nowata and Osage counties), with Steve Martin defeating Judy Taylor, the wife of the incumbent who was forced into retirement by term limits; House 30 (Creek County), with former Sapulpa Mayor Brian Bingman defeating John Mark Young; House 59 in western Oklahoma; and House 71 (Tulsa County), with attorney Dan Sullivan defeating incumbent Roy McClain. McClain won traditionally Republican House 71 in 2002 in the wake of a scandal involving then-incumbent Chad Stites — a scandal that hit after the filing period had closed. Republicans expected to win this one back. Another 8 seats, currently held by Democrats, are still close with enough precincts still out to swing it either way.

In the State Senate, Republicans will pick up three seats, including Senate 31 and 32 in the Lawton area in southwest Oklahoma. This area has consistently returned Democrats to the legislature despite the strong presence of active and retired military connected with Fort Sill. The area elected its first Republican House member in many years in 2002, and now it appears that both local State Senators will be Republicans. Republicans are also holding Senate 15 (Cleveland County), and winning Senate 23 in Grady County. Republicans had hoped to take over the open Senate 33 seat in Tulsa County, but Dewey Bartlett Jr (son of the late U. S. Senator and former Tulsa City Councilor) appears to have lost narrowly to Tom Adelson, former Oklahoma Secretary of Health.

Federal races -- early and decisive victories for Republicans

The big races wrapped up quickly, with Republican Tom Coburn winning decisively over Brad Carson in the U. S. Senate race to succeed Republican Don Nickles. Right now unofficial results from the state election board show Coburn with a 10 point lead — 52 to 42, with 6 percent going to radio-controlled Independent Sheila Bilyeu. President Bush is leading two-to-one over John Kerry. All four Republican congressmen were returned, and Democrat State Rep. Dan Boren (son of former Senator David Boren) handily won the open congressional seat left by Brad Carson. So Oklahoma’s congressional delegation remains all Republican except for the 2nd District which covers the eastern third of the state.

The Senate race looked tighter initially, as the first results came from Carson’s congressional district, where there was a tremendous turnout effort aimed at overcoming the Republican advantage in the two metro areas.

Moronski predicts...the Senate

Today in political punditry from Sean Moronski, he casts an eye over the US Senate races.

Every two years, approximately one-third of the U.S. Senate is up for grabs.  Currently, the GOP has 51 seats to the Dems 49 (including the so-called “independent” from Vermont).  In addition to help shape legislation and policy, this body is responsible for granting consent to judges, cabinet members, and other Federal officials.  Given the potential for several Supreme Court appointments over the next several years, control of this chamber may shape the Federal Judiciary for the next generation.

Almost every political observer believes the parties will swap seats in Georgia (to GOP) and Illinois (Dems win).  Putting aside the non-competitive races, there are eight races that will determine control of the Senate - four in the South and four west of the Mississippi in GOP country.  Of these seats, five are held by Democrats and three by Republicans.

North Carolina.  John Edwards chose to run for Vice President rather than face almost certain defeat facing reelection.  The Dem nominee is Erskine Bowles, former Clinton Chief of Staff, who lost a tough fight in 2002 to Elizabeth Dole.  U.S. Rep. Richard Burr has the GOP nod.  Bowles had a solid lead for weeks, but the race has closed to even in this solidly pro-Bush state. 

South Carolina. After 36 years of serving as Strom Thurmond’s junior Senator, Ernest Hollings is calling it quits.  Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint while the Dems are running State Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum.  DeMint is running as a big Bush backer in this hardcore GOP state while Tenenbaum is downplaying any connection to Kerry or the national Democrat party.  Probably a good strategy in a state Bush won’t lose.

Florida.  Another prominent Democrat, Bob Graham, decided to call it a career.  The White House asked Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez to run.  The Dem nominee is former State Education official Betty Castor.  This big race has been the sideshow in the media’s non-stop examination of the Presidential race here.  

Louisiana.  The wildest of wild cards with a unique open primary system that send the top two finishers regardless of party to a December runoff if no one candidate gets 50% plus one vote on Election Day.  GOP candidate U.S. Rep. David Vitter is virtually assured of making the runoff, polling in the low to mid-40s.  The race here is whether the national Democrats can prevent him from winning outright on November 2, as well as what Democrat would make a runoff.  Louisiana has never elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, nor has one served from there since Reconstruction. 

South Dakota.  Major race in a state with fewer than 800,000 people.  Home of Senate Democrat leader Tom Daschle, promoting his role as provider of Federal largesse instead of being Bush’s chief opposition in Washington.  Not unwise given that Bush is likely to win this state by at least 15 to 20 points.  His GOP opponent, former U.S. Rep. John Thune, lost a Senate seat here in 2002 by fewer than 600 votes.

Oklahoma.  Surprise GOP retirement opened up safe seat in a sure Bush state.  The GOP nominee, former U.S. Rep Tom Coburn, an obstetrician and anti-GOP establishment type, has made every mistake he can to turn a potential 25 to 30 point Bush lead into a horserace against the state’s lone Democrat congressman, Brad Carson.

Colorado.  Another GOP retirement put this seat in play.  Democrats nominated State Attorney General Ken Salazar while the Republicans are going with Pete Coors (“cold filtered… not heat pasteurized”).  Yes, that Coors.  Rocky Mountain Cold.

Alaska.  In a word — nepotism.  After being elected, new Governor Frank Murkowski had to appoint a successor to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated.  Of course he chose his daughter Lisa, a state senator.  This boneheaded move did the near impossible, creating a competitive U.S. Senate race in Alaska.  The Dem nominee is former two-term governor Tony Knowles.  This state has no business having a competitve statewide race in a presidential election year where Bush will win by 20+ points.

Bottom line… Dems must win 7 of the 8 races to gain control, or 6 if Kerry wins and Edwards can make himself useful and break ties.  All of these states were won by Bush in 2000, seven of them convincingly.  It can go either way… predictions next week.  

Sean is a former YR Chairman and political hack that successfully domesticated himself recently. His keen eye for politics has not waned as yet.

Sooner State races to watch: U. S. Senate, Legislature, referenda

Hello from Tulsa, Oklahoma. President Bush is polling above 60% and expected to take Oklahoma’s seven electoral votes, but we have plenty of hot races down the ballot — a U. S. Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of Republican Don Nickles and several controversial constitutional amendments dealing with marriage, a lottery, casino gambling, and a tobacco tax. The Senate race, pitting Republican former Congressman Tom Coburn against Democrat Congressman Brad Carson, is a key race in the battle for control of the Senate.

2004 is the first year that incumbent legislators will be affected by the term limits initiative passed in 1988. There are 36 open seats in our 101-seat lower house. The current makeup of the State House: Democrats have 51 seats, Republicans have 47, with three vacancies (held by two Ds and one R after the last election). A poll in 17 competitive House districts by SoonerPoll.com shows the Republicans leading in enough races to pick up seven seats and a majority of 54, but all but one of those pickups are within the margin of error. Democrats have held the majority in the State House since 1923. Republicans have been close to a takeover since 2000 - they have high hopes of finally reaching the goal this year. Republicans would have to pick up eight seats to take over the State Senate — a longer shot, but not out of the question.

The Oklahoma State Election Board will be posting results here as they come in from the counties. Unless there are problems, all precincts generally report by 9 p.m. CST.

Thanks to the Command Post for the opportunity to report from Oklahoma on Election Day!