Ohio Recount's over, Bush still wins

Well I sure hope that was a X amount of dollars spent by the Democrat Party as evident here and at John Kerry’s own site

You can find the recount data for Ohio State here

Now I’m going to compare data with CNN’s Election 2004 November 2nd Count here

Bush Nov 2
2,796,147
Bush Recount
2,858,727
Bush gain in recount
+62,580

Kerry Nov 2
2,659,664
Kerry Recount
2,739,952
Kerry’s Gain in recount
+80,288

Vote Differences between the two candidates Post-Recount
Bush over Kerry by 118,775
November 2 Differences
Bush over Kerry by 136,483

So reviewing all that data, Bush’s lead has slightly declined but Kerry would still have not won unless he had won almost 100% of the provisional votes. Now, my democrat friends, please stop calling for recounts, it only come back to bite you in the ass (Gore 2000 and now Kerry 2004).

Thank you and good day.

Kerry Campaign Seeks To Join Ohio Recount Fight

The Washington Post reports that on Tuesday the Kerry presidential campaign asked an Ohio judge to allow it to join the legal fight over whether one county can decline to participate in the state’s impending recount:

A pair of third-party presidential candidates, who said that reports of problems at the polls on Election Day are not being addressed, are forcing the Buckeye State to recount its entire presidential vote. But David A. Yost, a lawyer for Delaware County, just outside Columbus, won a temporary restraining order last week blocking any recount there. He told the Columbus Dispatch that a second count would be a poor use of county resources. President Bush won the mostly Republican area handily, unofficial results show.

Lawyers for the Kerry campaign asked to join Green Party presidential candidate David Cobb, Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik and the National Voting Rights Institute in the fight to force the county to participate in the recount. “If there’s going to be a recount in Ohio, we don’t want it to exclude Delaware County or any other county that might decide to follow Delaware County’s lead,” Kerry lawyer Dan Hoffheimer said. “It should be a full, fair and accurate recount.”

From California Yankee.

Just when you thought the election was over...

From Drudge: Ohio To Go Through Statewide Vote Recount After All

A statewide recount of the presidential vote appears inevitable after a pair of third-party candidates said they have collected enough money to pay for it.

The recount would be conducted after the election results are certified in early December.

Libertarian Michael Badnarik and the Green Party’s David Cobb said on Monday they raised more than $150,000 in four days, mostly in small contributions.

Ohio law requires payment of $10 per precinct for a recount, or $113,600 statewide.

Badnarik and Cobb said they aren’t trying to overturn President Bush’s 136,000-vote victory in Ohio, but just want to ensure that all votes were counted properly in the face of concerns about Election Day irregularities.

Turns out that the recount will cost the counties (and thus taxpayers) about $1.5 Million. Awesome!

Sarcasm aside, given 5.5 million votes in Ohio, it’ll cost each voter 27 cents (less when you consider that voters < taxpayers), I figure this is a reasonable amount to pay - as long as the process highlights the need for a more reliable, honest, and accountable voting system.

Moronski wraps it up

At this time in Ohio, the President has a lead of approximately 135,000 votes with virtually all of the votes in.  Even using the Democrat estimate of “200,000” provisional ballots (votes cast by folks not registered for various reasons) for the counting of additional votes, Kerry would have to win 70 percent of those votes to cast this election into doubt, and that is assuming all of those provisional ballots are valid.  This isn’t Florida and 537 votes — then again, neither was Florida this year.  Ohio’s 20 electoral votes will be in the GOP column, assuring the Republicans have claim on 269 votes and no worse than a situation that throws the election into the House (where the GOP controls 30 state delegations).

President Bush also leads in New Mexico and Iowa.

It’s over.

Once we get through the election formalities in Ohio and elsewhere, there will be enough electoral votes to re-elect President Bush.  Four times in our history — 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000 — the President won the Electoral College without finishing first in the popular vote.  Three times, the incumbent did not get re-elected.  History was made in 2004.

President Bush, constantly castigated for finishing second in the popular vote in 2000, finished with the most votes in American history — outpacing his opponent by over 3,500,000 votes nationwide.

President Bush is the first nominee to win a majority of the votes cast since his father in 1988. 

Despite the hundreds of millions of dollars invested by various left-wing groups (moveon.org, The Voter Fund, AFL-CIO, NARAL, et al) to assassinate this President’s character, they failed and the results reflect that.  More new voters showed up Tuesday, and the numbers show the obvious — they put President Bush over the top.

It was a great night for the President and a strong night for the GOP.

More in the coming days about the dissection of this race and the Senate races.  

Bush lead extends in Ohio

Latest count via the BBC:

Bush 2,771,814 (51.1)
Kerry 2,624,201 (48.4)

99% of precincts counted.

It is getting close to mathematically impossible for Kerry to win, even if all provisional and absentee ballots are for Kerry. Many absentee ballots are from military personnel, who are estimated to be voting 70% for Bush.

Ohio: We Might Not Know For 11 Days?

The Ohio Secy. of State is on CNN TV saying that NO provisional ballots can be counted in Ohio until the ELEVENTH day after the election, according to Ohio’s process, as they allow 10 days for military ballots to come in from overseas. There could be anywhere from under 200,000 to 250,000 such ballots.

One way or the other, there won’t be a certified count in Ohio for 11 days, should this election be in doubt.

Kerry Camp Disputes Ohio Results

Fox News:
Kerry campaign spokeswoman Marybeth Cahill says that the camp will be digging in for a fight in Ohio. “All the votes have not been counted,” Cahill says in an official statement just released to the media. Cahill stated that when the votes are, she’s sure “Ohio will go to Kerry.”

Cross-posted.

Kerry's Last Hope In Ohio (And Overall)

Kerry staffers are saying that (1) they believe they can narrow the vote to 50,000 votes tonight, and that (2) there are 200,000 provisional ballots that then must be counted, that (3) 180,000 of those are likely valid, and that (4) they can make up the 50,000 from that 180,000.

The gap is narrowing in Ohio … now 2,496,440 Bush to 2,371,383 Kerry with 89% of the stations reporting … but I think we may still see Ohio be an issue for some time …

Ratherisms IV

This race is "cracking like a hickory fire."

"if we all had side pockets, we'd carry a handgun" (?)

Calls to mind that old song, "it's delightful, it's delicious, it's de-lovely" for President Bush.

"Like a swan, every feather in place above the water, but below the water they are paddling like crazy worrying about ohio."

Carville: "They won it."

James Carville is on CNN saying that Bush has won Ohio … that he’s talked to people “on the ground … who would love to give people the news, but they’re not.”

Ohio is for Bush but MSM except for Fox doesn't see it that way

Just watching the voting difference between increased.

1st Math: 119K Difference Bush Leads
2nd Math: 126K Difference Bush Leads
3rd Math: 140K Difference Bush Leads

Now I’ll call it to make up for the MSM’s lack of attention to this minor detail. Bush has clearly taken Ohio.

FOX CALLS OHIO FOR BUSH

FOX CALLS OHIO FOR BUSH.

Assuming Bush gets Alaska (3), all he needs is 1 more EV - and NM looks like it might push Bush over the edge.

Don't slot Ohio yet

As much as I hate to say this, Susan Estrich was absolutely right in that Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) will push Kerry up a LOT - according to my calculations, somewhere on the order of 300,000 votes (if the final proportions are the same). However, Hamilton, Greene, and Warren still have a lot of votes to count, so that should counter-act a lot of Cuyahoga.

Cross posted at Extraordinary Convergence.

Latest Official Ohio count

From the Official Ohio Election Results Page:

With 58.17% of precincts reporting, Bush is leading Kerry, 52.00% to 47.37%.

UPDATED 11:35PM

A Day In the Life of an Ohioan "Poll Observer" aka Challenger/Witness

Thirteen hours today I sat and watched and watched and watched. Why …what did I see? Sounds like the beginning of a good nursery rhyme but this story isn’t one the kiddies would find very captivating. However this is a historical change to our method of voting never before seen. Hear what it was like being a “Poll Observer” for the Republican Party in a largely Democratic voting precinct.

Basically a lot of people voted and that isn’t a very likely candidate for the next sweeps week reality show. Some people had problems with their addresses (11 out of 288) or with ID (also 11 out of 288) and were given a provision ballot (one that requires a later inspection at the County Board of Elections Office). There was no blatant fraud that I witnessed. There were no issues with people claiming to be a person who died during the last year nor people coming in to vote who had been issued an absentee ballot (double voting - felony). There were some blatant Kerry groups getting too close to the polling areas and reports of 527 groups inappropriately “electioneering”. What that means is that groups like Acorn, ACT, and Moveon.org were found distributing Kerry literature, wearing Kerry adverts, approaching voters trying to get to the polls …and more of the same in areas that are to be kept free of such things so as not to intefere with voters who disagree with the ideologies and potlitical views of such groups. So NO voter will be “disenfranchised”. Still hopefully Ohio was civil and showed that you can be passionate and controversial while still getting along with your neighbor. I suspect a lot of out-of-state political motivated groups will make the headlines this week. There are tons of lawyers preparing for the Mother of All Voter Disenfranchisement Lawsuits here in the heartland. Say it with me “disenfranchisement”. Heh …Julie Andrews sing out loud. …”even though the sound of it is really quite attrocious” …

Media maroons get the facts straight this election …PLEASE! No, Ohio is not Florida. Our Secretary of State won’t be accused of gaudy makeup application. Ken Blackwell good luck on the road to filling the shoes of Katherine Harris.

Tomorrow, once I’ve gotten a chance to get some sleep and a better chance of writing clearer strings of thoughts, I’ll tell you about the High School Social Studies teacher who lashed at me for my role while I helped insure the legitimacy of the vote at the polls in his school. Are all High School teachers still nerds?

My hope was the freedom is preserved in our demonstration of democracy in action.

Big Swing In Ohio

More proof it’s going to be a wild night: Bush, who earlier had a 10 point lead in Ohio, is now trailing Kerry 48% to 46% with 237,000 votes in.

CNN TV Contradicts Official Ohio Site

CNN TV, which I have paused on TiVo at this moment, is directly contradicting what’s on the Ohio Secretary of State site.

CNN TV:

• 56% Kerry
• 44% Bush
  … with 66,394 votes in

Ohio Site:

• 55% Bush
• 45% Kerry

What gives?

Ohio Breaking Bush Early?

According to their Secy. of State site, Ohio continues to break toward Bush. It’s quite early … only 75,000 votes in … but Bush continues to lead 53% to 46%.

Dems sue to keep polls open in Ohio

From ElectionLaw:

Lawsuit Over Long Lines in Ohio
11/02/04 (7:15 p.m. ET) - Democratic Party lawyers have brought a lawsuit in federal district court against the boards of election in Knox County and Franklin County (Columbus), arising from long lines that allegedly resulted from those counties failure to have enough voting machines in place. See this report for more. We’re trying to track down the complaint and will post it on the EL@M site as soon as it’s available. The lawsuit reportedly asks that voters in lines longer than two hours be given the option of casting a paper ballot. As of 5 pm, lines three hours long were reported. View the complaint

Documents Now Available in Lawsuit Over Long Lines in Ohio
11/02/04 (7:38 p.m. ET) - View the complaint

Extending Polling Hours
11/2/04 (7:42 p.m. ET) Analysis by Ruth Colker - One issue that is likely to arise as the polls start to close will be requests to extend polling hours. That issue arose at the conclusion of the 2000 Presidential election. In a case arising out of St. Louis, Missouri, a citizen sought to have the poll hours extended due to voting machine breakdowns and long lines. After holding a brief hearing, a local judge agreed to extend the hours of voting at polling places in the city. On appeal, the court of appeals of Missouri reversed the judge’s decision finding that the judge had no authority to authorize voters who did not come to the polls during the hours established by the legislature to participate in the election. See Missouri v. Baker, 34 S.W.3d 410 (Ct. Appeals Mo. Dec. 6, 2000). The court suggested that the relief requested by the plaintiff could only be issued if the election rules were unconstitutional, because there were no statutory rules providing guidance for extending voting hours. If the Missouri precedent were followed in other jurisdictions, it would be very difficult to obtain voting hour extensions.

Update 8:13PM -

TRO Issued in Ohio Democratic Party v. Blackwell (Lawsuit Over Long Lines in Ohio)
11/02/04 (8:13 p.m. ET) - Judge Marbley has GRANTED Plaintiffs’ motion for a TRO in the case arising from long lines in Franklin and Knox counties. The court orders that Blackwell and the county boards of elections “provide paper ballots or another mechanism to provide an adequate opportunity to vote.” The order further directs that the two counties keep the polls open for all voters waiting in line as of 7:30 pm. View the order or View the complaint or View the TRO Motion

UPDATE 8:58PM -

Blackwell files Answer in Ohio Democratic Party v. Blackwell (Lawsuit Over Long Lines in Ohio)
11/02/04 (8:49 p.m. ET) - View the Answer

Franklin County Appeals Temporary Restraining Order in Ohio Democratic Party v. Blackwell (Lawsuit Over Long Lines in Ohio)
11/02/04 (8:41 p.m. ET) - View the Notice of Appeal

LAST UPDATE 9:31PM - They’ve pretty much decided to let those who were in line by the official closing time still vote, which makes sense to me. I understand they’ll pass out paper ballots or something. Check the first link for updates.

Cross posted at Extraordinary Convergence

Judge: Access For Exit Poll Surveys In OH OK

From Ohio.com / AP:

Exit polling can be conducted within 100 feet of a polling place on Election Day, a federal judge ruled.

U.S. District Judge Michael H. Watson’s ruling on Monday night overturned an October directive by Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell to prohibit exit polling within 100 feet of precincts.

Five television networks - ABC, CNN, CBS, Fox News and NBC - and The Associated Press had sued on Monday, seeking a temporary order to block Blackwell’s directive that limited the exit-poll surveys, even though there had been no prior problems.

“Polling activities such as these have been conducted in this manner for over two decades,” Watson wrote in his nine-page ruling. “There is no evidence before the court that these activities have ever impinged on a citizen’s right to vote.”

First exit polls: Bush up 8 in OH?

NRO says it’s 49-41 Bush in Ohio.

Mystery Pollster, however, offers an excellent analysis of why the mid-day exit poll leaks should be taken with a “giant grain of salt.”

Ohio journalists sneaking into polls despite ban

Follow up to the previous post.

Found on Drudge - Ohio Papers Determined to Cover Polling Places, Despite Sec. of State’s Ban:

emphasis mine

…Despite a directive from the Ohio secretary of state barring reporters and photographers from polling places, some newspaper editors are urging staffers today to ignore the order and seek access to voting sites until they are ordered out.

“We are going to proceed on the assumption we will get in and will until we get thrown out,” said Doug Clifton, editor of The Plain Dealer in Cleveland, who estimates that up to 50 of his newsroom staffers would be visiting polling places Tuesday in the hotly contested state. “They were getting in this morning [Tuesday], but not everywhere.”

In addition, at least one paper — The Columbus Dispatch — has registered newsroom employees as election challengers so they gain access to polling places.

“We filed to be challengers because election officials said they would strictly enforce laws regulating who can be in polling places — voters, poll workers and challengers only,” Dispatch Editor Ben Marrison wrote in a column. “Dispatch staffers are registered as challengers for every precinct in Franklin and Delaware counties.”

Marrison could not be reached for comment Tuesday morning.

The Dispatch opted for the challenger approach after Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell issued a directive on Oct. 20 to local election officials reminding them that state law prohibits anyone from entering polling places unless they are voting, monitoring the area as a challenger, or working as a voting official or witness.

The Akron Beacon Journal filed suit against Blackwell’s directive, but that challenge was denied by U.S. District Judge Paul Matia on Monday. Newspaper attorneys were still discussing further appeals, but none had been filed as of Tuesday morning.

“The issue is the voter’s right to privacy in the voting place,” said Betty Hull, director of state advocacy for the secretary of state, who defended his actions. “He intends to fulfill his obligation to enforce the law.”

Two other directives by Blackwell to bar exit pollers and registered challengers from polling places were blocked in separate court rulings within the last two days. Those court orders allowed challengers to be in the polling places and exit pollers to be within the 100-foot perimeter set by Blackwell but not inside the polling places themselves.

Carlo LoParo, Blackwell’s press secretary, said the Dispatch registered staffers as challengers on behalf of a committee opposing a ballot initiative for a state constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. Despite the fact that the newspaper openly admitted the challengers would be there to act as journalists, he said the effort was considered legal. “If the committee is comfortable having individuals from the Dispatch representing them, that is within the law,” LoParo said.

Some editors are instructing reporters and photographers to ignore the secretary of state’s directive and get into the polling places if possible.

Mike Burbach, managing editor of the Beacon Journal, offered a plan similar to the Plain Dealer’s. “We are going to try to get in, and, if they let us, we will,” he said. “[Our reporters] have gotten into a couple of places so far, and we will do what we always have, show up and record the news.”

But both Burbach and Doug Clifton emphasized that no reporters or photographers would disobey officials who ordered them to leave. “We will not defy the law,” Burbach stressed. “But we will do what we have to within the law.”

Cross posted at Extraordinary Convergence.

Bush Now In Columbus Ohio

After voting this morning in Crawford, the President has flown to Columbus, Ohio, where he’s now doing a press event at a Bush/Cheney campaign location … the campaigning continues down to the last possible moment, it appears.

Federal Appeals Court Allows Voter Challenges In Polling Places

The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, in Cincinnati, reversed two lower courts that had ruled it was unconstitutional for party workers to challenge voters in polling places.

Challenging has been allowed under Ohio state law for decades. Republicans see challenges as a way to ensure that only those eligible vote. Democrats see challenges as a form of voter intimidation.

The New York Times reports that the lower courts felt there were adequate protections against fraud without the challenges:

In their separate rulings in the lower courts, Judge Susan J. Dlott of Federal District Court in Cincinnati and Judge John R. Adams in Akron agreed that procedures already existed to prevent fraud at the voting place. And they said aggressive, time-consuming challenges inside polling stations might create chaos and delays that could intimidate voters or rob them of the chance to vote.

In seeking the delicate balance between preventing fraud and upholding voting rights, the judges said, the scales should tip toward voting rights.

United Press International reports that Democrats asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review the matter. Justice John Paul Stevens denied the request early this morning.

From California Yankee.

Foreign Election Observers Take Up Stations

From the Washington Times :

About 60 mainly European election observers have taken up their posts in six states, including Florida and Ohio, saying they hope their presence will serve as a “preventative to the shenanigans” during voting tomorrow.
“We will tell the people of Ohio whether their election is free and fair,” said one of the observers, Hugo Coveliers, a Belgian senator who plans to monitor voting in Cleveland.
[…]
The observers have already fanned out to Florida, New Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia. After meeting with local officials and voters groups, the observers — whose home countries range from Belgium to Kazakhstan — will spend Election Day watching the polls.
The OSCE rules do not allow observers to do much more than make sure that local rules are followed. If they see someone burning ballots in the alley, they are not permitted to interfere. Nor are they supposed to criticize the army of lawyers, negative advertising or simplistic campaign speeches that many of them seem to find jarring.
Nevertheless, the observers hope their presence will serve as a “preventative to the shenanigans,” said Mr. Coveliers, the Belgian senator. “What [the voters] can be sure about is, if there are obvious shortcomings, an international organization of 55 countries will declare there are shortcomings.”
[…]
The delegates are from Greece, Belgium, Denmark, Cyprus, Sweden, Serbia-Montenegro, Kazakhstan, Romania, Switzerland, France, Malta, Albania, Romania, Norway, Finland, Italy, Russia, Monaco, Belarus, Estonia and Turkey.

Interesting

Not huge, but interesting (posted with permission):

BREAKING: PRESIDENT WITH SLIM LEAD IN OHIO

Ohio’s Secretary of State is posting results of what I imagine are early votes and absentee ballots and so far President Bush is leading by the slimmest of margins:

Bush: 49.87% with 800,950 votes.
Kerry: 49.12% with 788,799 votes

UPDATE: We all know turnout is likely to be higher this year vs. 2000. However, based upon the 2000 voter turnout of 4,705,457, the 1,606,016 that have been counted in Ohio so far represents 34% of the 2000 turnout.

(via MegaPundit)

Cross-posted at Speed of Thought…

Challengers Back in Ohio

AP just reporting that the 6th Circuit US Court of Appeals permitting voting place challengers.

A three-judge panel of the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 to grant emergency stays of two federal judges’ orders Monday that barred political parties’ voter challengers in Ohio. The judges also consolidated the two cases.

The court said that while there is a strong public interest in letting registered voters vote freely, there is also “strong public interest in permitting legitimate statutory processes to operate to preclude voting by those who are not entitled to vote.”

The judges also said that smooth and effective administration of the voting laws means that the rules can’t be changed in the hours immediately preceding the election.

UPDATE:

More details from the Cincinnati Enquirer

Ohio media sues Sec. State Blackwell for access to polls

As another result of the ordinance O.R.C. 3501.35, the media has sued Secretary of State Blackwell for access to the polls.

O.R.C 3501.35

[…]prohibits loitering near polls, proscribes any person, not “an election official, employee, witness, challenger, or police officer,” from entering “the polling place during the election, except for the purpose of voting.” That section also states that, “no person shall loiter or congregate within the area between the polling place and the small flags of the United States placed on thoroughfares and walkways leading to the polling place…” This section of Ohio law has never been interpreted in such a way as to prohibit reporters and photographers from entering polls to report upon events therein or to take photographs.

Original PDFs here.

Come now the plantiffs, Beacon Journal Publishing Company (“Beacon Journal”) and M. Charlene Nevada (“Nevada”), by and through their undersigned counsel, and for their Complaint against the Defendents in this action, respectfully aver as follows:

Nature of Action:
1. This civil action arises from the unconstitutional and unlawful directive by Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell to deprive citizens, and particularly news reporters and photographers, from their constitutional rights and responsibilities to observe, report upon and photograph activities at polling places throughout Ohio on Election Day, November 2, 2004. The Complaint seeks permanent and preliminary injunctive relief and compensatory damages under 42 U.S.C. 1983 and for attorneys fees under 42 U.S.C. 1988. Moreover, the Complaint seeks declaratory relief under the Federal Declaratory Judgement Act.

This was filed Monday - it may not be decided upon until the polls are already open.

More as it develops.

Cross posted here.

Latest Ohio Polls: Dead Heat

CNN TV is now reporting the most recent polls for Ohio:

• CNN/Gallup: Kerry 50%, Bush 46% (+/-3%)

• University of Cinci.: Bush 50%, Kerry 49% (+/-3.5%)

Federal Judges Bar Challengers in Ohio Polling Places

From the Cincinnati Enquirer:

Two federal judges today banned thousands of challengers who had been recruited to monitor voters in Ohio polling places, saying poll workers — not outsiders — should determine voter eligibility.

Three local Republicans backed by the state party quickly appealed to the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.

In the first ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Susan Dlott found the portion of Ohio law that allows challengers to be placed in polling places to be unconstitutional. Having challengers inexperienced in questioning voters would impede the election and potentially disenfranchise some voters, Dlott said in her ruling, issued at 1:24 a.m.

The ruling came in a lawsuit filed by long-time Cincinnati civil rights activists Donald and Marian Spencer, who argued that the GOP’s plan to deploy challengers in mostly in African-American precincts was an attempt to intimidate and frustrate black voters.

Republicans argued that the challengers would have been there to prevent voter fraud. Republicans, in their appeal, said there was no evidence of racial hostility or discrimination. They want Judge Dlott’s order blocked.

. . . .

Just after Dlott’s ruling, U.S. District Judge John Adams made a similar ruling in Akron, barring challengers from polling places.

Like Dlott, Adams said that the precinct judges that are normally on duty at polling places are the ones to determine if voters are eligible.

“In light of these extraordinary circumstances, and the contentious nature of the imminent election, the court can not and must not turn a blind eye to the substantial likelihood that significant harm will result not only to voters, but also to the voting process itself, if appointed challengers are permitted at the polls,” Adams wrote.

Read the rest here. You can access a .pdf version of Judge Dlott’s order here.