No changes in House seats

CNN has called all but two NJ House races. I live in one of the remaining races, and the incumbent is gonna win that one. The other is leaning towards the incumbent as well.

So, I’m going to call them now for the incumbents. NJ will be sending the same Representatives back to Congress this fall.

If I’m wrong, let me know and I’ll fix this in the morning.

NJN - Kerry won NJ by 10%

NJN is reporting that exit polls show Kerry winning NJ by 10%.

Reportedly, Iraq was Bush’s Achilles Heel in NJ. A large percentage of voters supported Bush’s actions on terrorism, but a similar large percentage of voters were unhappy with Bush’s actions in Iraq. Minorities overwhelming went for Kerry.

All of this is NJN analysis based on exit polling.

No news on House races yet - I’ll bring them to you as NJN starts calling them.

NJN Calls NJ for Kerry

New Jersey Network (NJN) reports that AP has called the state of New Jersey for John Kerry.

Polling Place Hazmat Hoax

In Mt. Laurel, NJ - a school was evacuated for about a few hours after a white powder was found on the floor of the polling place. (AP Story via NJ.com)

It turned out after testing to be salt.

WCAU (NBC - link) reports that a person entered the polling place about and threw the salt into the air. Hazmat units and fire companies responded.

My Voting Experience

As usual, my wife and I voted on the way to work. For the first time in years we got to go together because she’s travelling for business today and is working from home until it’s time to go to the airport. Weather is good here - the predicted rain showers will hold off until after voting closes this evening and it’s sunny now.

Normally, I am voter #20 or thereabouts at 7:45am. Today, I was voter #80 in my district. This anecdotal evidence shows heavy turnout so far. I just overheard a Pennsylvania co-worker reporting that it took another co-worker 1.5 hours to vote this morning.

The machines were moved from the hallway outside of the auditorium to the cafeteria at the Middle School voting place. The janitor told me that this is because the new machines take up more space (and presumably more outlets). This year’s issues show up in my reaction - I thought the new location was safer because it was farther from the road and parking lot and NOT where the flag was hanging on the building.

My wife and I are a mixed-marriage - one Republican and one Democrat. We both voted our party for President, though she reports being undecided until about the time we got into the car to go vote. She told me who she voted for on the way home, but I drove her all the way home anyway.

Moronski predicts...the Senate

Today in political punditry from Sean Moronski, he casts an eye over the US Senate races.

Every two years, approximately one-third of the U.S. Senate is up for grabs.  Currently, the GOP has 51 seats to the Dems 49 (including the so-called “independent” from Vermont).  In addition to help shape legislation and policy, this body is responsible for granting consent to judges, cabinet members, and other Federal officials.  Given the potential for several Supreme Court appointments over the next several years, control of this chamber may shape the Federal Judiciary for the next generation.

Almost every political observer believes the parties will swap seats in Georgia (to GOP) and Illinois (Dems win).  Putting aside the non-competitive races, there are eight races that will determine control of the Senate - four in the South and four west of the Mississippi in GOP country.  Of these seats, five are held by Democrats and three by Republicans.

North Carolina.  John Edwards chose to run for Vice President rather than face almost certain defeat facing reelection.  The Dem nominee is Erskine Bowles, former Clinton Chief of Staff, who lost a tough fight in 2002 to Elizabeth Dole.  U.S. Rep. Richard Burr has the GOP nod.  Bowles had a solid lead for weeks, but the race has closed to even in this solidly pro-Bush state. 

South Carolina. After 36 years of serving as Strom Thurmond’s junior Senator, Ernest Hollings is calling it quits.  Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint while the Dems are running State Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum.  DeMint is running as a big Bush backer in this hardcore GOP state while Tenenbaum is downplaying any connection to Kerry or the national Democrat party.  Probably a good strategy in a state Bush won’t lose.

Florida.  Another prominent Democrat, Bob Graham, decided to call it a career.  The White House asked Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez to run.  The Dem nominee is former State Education official Betty Castor.  This big race has been the sideshow in the media’s non-stop examination of the Presidential race here.  

Louisiana.  The wildest of wild cards with a unique open primary system that send the top two finishers regardless of party to a December runoff if no one candidate gets 50% plus one vote on Election Day.  GOP candidate U.S. Rep. David Vitter is virtually assured of making the runoff, polling in the low to mid-40s.  The race here is whether the national Democrats can prevent him from winning outright on November 2, as well as what Democrat would make a runoff.  Louisiana has never elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, nor has one served from there since Reconstruction. 

South Dakota.  Major race in a state with fewer than 800,000 people.  Home of Senate Democrat leader Tom Daschle, promoting his role as provider of Federal largesse instead of being Bush’s chief opposition in Washington.  Not unwise given that Bush is likely to win this state by at least 15 to 20 points.  His GOP opponent, former U.S. Rep. John Thune, lost a Senate seat here in 2002 by fewer than 600 votes.

Oklahoma.  Surprise GOP retirement opened up safe seat in a sure Bush state.  The GOP nominee, former U.S. Rep Tom Coburn, an obstetrician and anti-GOP establishment type, has made every mistake he can to turn a potential 25 to 30 point Bush lead into a horserace against the state’s lone Democrat congressman, Brad Carson.

Colorado.  Another GOP retirement put this seat in play.  Democrats nominated State Attorney General Ken Salazar while the Republicans are going with Pete Coors (“cold filtered… not heat pasteurized”).  Yes, that Coors.  Rocky Mountain Cold.

Alaska.  In a word — nepotism.  After being elected, new Governor Frank Murkowski had to appoint a successor to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated.  Of course he chose his daughter Lisa, a state senator.  This boneheaded move did the near impossible, creating a competitive U.S. Senate race in Alaska.  The Dem nominee is former two-term governor Tony Knowles.  This state has no business having a competitve statewide race in a presidential election year where Bush will win by 20+ points.

Bottom line… Dems must win 7 of the 8 races to gain control, or 6 if Kerry wins and Edwards can make himself useful and break ties.  All of these states were won by Bush in 2000, seven of them convincingly.  It can go either way… predictions next week.  

Sean is a former YR Chairman and political hack that successfully domesticated himself recently. His keen eye for politics has not waned as yet.

NJ Authorities, Parties Working to Smooth Vote

A Star Ledger Article (link) talks about how the state and county authorities are gearing up to make sure that voters have a smooth road to the machine.

The political parties are watching the polls:

The political parties also are going all out to bring in poll watchers, called challengers.

Brian Callanan, spokesman for the Republican State Committee, said the party will have 42 challengers — two in each county — who will be on-call to travel to any precinct where problems arise.

“The bottom line is the Republican party will be in position to respond to any problem in any precinct that would prevent any voter from voting,” he said.

In addition to a full complement of challengers, Democrats also have roughly 500 volunteer attorneys who will be posted at county boards of elections and courthouses, said A.J. Sabath, executive director of the Kerry-Edwards campaign.

“We’re keeping our eyes all over the place and just be prepared to deal with problems everywhere,” he said.

Elections officials and nonpartisan folks are watching the polls:

The state Division of Elections has printed thousands of multi-colored posters to be displayed at polling places and inform voters of their rights.

State and county election officials started scrambling late last week to generate lists of all new voters whose names did not make it into the “poll books,” so they can cast ballots smoothly. While some counties, such as Union and Atlantic, said they would prepare official reports so people could vote at machines, other counties were expected to create less formal lists that would allow people to vote using provisional ballots.

…

And close to 500 deputy attorneys general — nearly double the normal number compared to past elections — will be posted around the state to answer questions at county election boards and representing the state in cases that go to court, said Moore, the attorney general’s spokesman.

“There are always going to be glitches in the election process,” [State Attorney General Peter] Harvey said at a Statehouse news conference last week. In a later interview, he added: “Our goal is to have a smooth election and access to the ballot … is our primary concern.”

Dozens of volunteer nonpartisan attorneys also will be at polls and courthouses to keep an eye on workers and partisan challengers.

The excitement of this year’s election inspired McCarter & English associate Megan Worrell, who normally handles trust and estates, to give election law a try. She is one of 21 attorneys from the Newark law firm to sign up for duty.

“We’re like the first line of defense,” she said, adding she is excited and nervous.

And law enforcement are watching the polls:

The combination of a hotly contested election and security concerns are changing the way Election Day is expected to unfold this year. Around the state, law enforcement, judicial officers and the political parties are making plans for a smooth day of voting, and contingencies in case of problems.

“Some of these polling sites are going to be very crowded and some of these poll workers are going to need some extra help,” state Attorney General Peter Harvey said. “All of us just need a little more patience. We should be patient with our fellow citizens who are exercising their right to be powerful and be heard.”

The first clue for many voters that this year is different will be the extra police patrolling outside schools, firehouses and other polling places.

Polls are open from 6am to 8pm EST.

Congressional Race Preview

New Jersey has 13 House seats up for election this season - neither Senate seat is due this time around.

I wrote a summary of the Congressional races in NJ just for Command Post, and I present it here: NJ Congressional Preview

The bottom line: The incumbents are heavily favored in almost all districts, and New Jersey is unlikely to contribute to any power shift in the House this year.