The Votes Are (Almost) Counted

CNN page that has the summary of the key races in Montana. No big surprises: President Bush secured our three electoral votes, Brian Schweitzer won a decisive victory to be the next Governor, Representative Denny Rehberg handily defeated his challenger, and the voters approve of medical marijuana but disapprove of same-sex marriage.

And for what it’s worth, I’ve heard NO mention anywhere of voter suppression or intimidation, nor surly polling place workers, nor faulty balloting methods or machines, nor too-long lines. As near as I can tell, the democratic process in Montana is very peaceful and civil.

Montana Results - In Progress

According to the Yahoo! results page for Montana as of 9:07 pm (MT time):

President:®Bush 56% vs (D)Kerry 42% vs (I)Nader 1%
Governor: (D)Schweitzer 54% vs ®Brown 44%
US Rep:®Rehberg 62% vs (D)Velazquez 36% vs (I)Fellows 2%

Election results for Yellowstone County (home to Billings, our largest city) are right here.

(cross posted to Big Sky Blog)

Montana Initiative C96, which would define marriage as between only a man and a woman, appears to have passed, with preliminary tally of 66% vs 34%.

Initiative I-148, which would allow people to use marijuana for medical purposes, also appears to have been approved, with early reports of 62% vs 38%.

And on the KRTV local newsbreak, the reporter stated that Initiative I-149 will also pass - thereby increasing the tax on a pack of cigarettes by $1.00.

No word yet on how Initiative I-147 (to allow cyanide mining) is faring at the polls.

Split Decision Among MT Kids

Middle school students across Montana cast their votes recently, and the winners were George Bush for President, Brian Schweitzer for Governor, and Denny Rehbert for Congress. Interesting — Republican for President, Democrat for Governor, and Republican for Congress.

No word on what the kids thought of same-sex marriage, legalizing medical marijuana, or cyanide mining.

Turnout

Both major Presidential campaigns — and every pundit in the universe — have stressed over and over and over again that TURNOUT is the key to success. For reference purposes, here is a record of voter turnout in Montana, going all the way back to 1928. Of note: in the last three Presidential elections, the number of Montanans who voted has been between 417,000 and 418,000.

Weather or Not To Vote

Weather can affect voter turnout, so it might be handy to know what the current forecast is for your area and what the road conditions are. For instance, consider:

In Minnesota…on Halloween Day in 1991, a three-day storm brought 37 inches of snow and Minneapolis 28 inches. Snow, freezing rain and sleet made driving a car a gamble with one’s life. If such a storm were to hit Minnesota on the night before Election Day, who would be more willing and able to get to the precincts, Kerry voters or Bush voters? And which side has a higher rate of ownership of four-wheel-drive vehicles?

Fortunately, here in Montana the weather is supposed to relatively mild in most areas…the only significant weather activity here in Great Falls today, for instance, is a high-wind warning through tonight. If this election were held in 2002 or 2003, things might have been a bit more dicey. (cross-posted to Big Sky Blog)

The "Big" Elections

It’s pretty much common knowledge that President Bush has a lock on Montana; it is solidly in the “red” column. But by how much? And what do the latest polls say about the gubernatorial race, and the Congressional seat? Find out here: Real Clear Politics (Montana-specific).

According to recent polls, President Bush enjoys a lead of anywhere between 18 and 28 points in Big Sky Country. And in the race for Governor, several polls indicate that Brian Schweitzer (D) is leading current Lt Gov Bob Brown ® by 4 to 15 points, which contradicts a poll that I heard on the radio last week that placed Brown well ahead of Schweitzer. And our sole US Representative, Denny Rehberg ®, is maintaining a huge lead over his challengers, Tracy Velazquez (D) and Mike Fellows (LP), by a margin of 35 to 40 points.

Bottom line: Montana is going to award 3 electoral votes to President Bush, and Congressman Rehberg will be re-elected. If you’re looking for a horse-race, keep your eyes on Bob Brown and Brian Schweitzer as they battle for the Top Job in Big Sky Country. (cross-posted at Big Sky Blog)

Welcome To "Big Sky" Election Coverage!

Greetings all — this is Dave, from Montana. I know most of you think that we’ve got nothing but militia-men and Unabombers here, but believe me — plenty of good, honest people call Montana home. On the ballot for Tuesday: President, Governor, US Representative, and a few initiatives that are being hotly debated. I’ll do my best to keep you updated as Election Day 2004 rolls on!