The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election: Florida

November 02, 2004

Florida not yet declared by California is?

I’m just dumbfounded by this. I’m looking at the results for Florida and it’s 94% counted with 52% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. It’s a 304,384 voting difference between Bush and Kerry. That’s obviously showing it’s going into Bush’s category for 27 points. Calculating the potential votes, it’s around 400,000 votes or so for the gap of not counted yet. But it’s really obvious it won’t go 100% Kerry heck and I even doubt it’ll go 75% Kerry either. It’ll be even.

Now hitting ‘F5’, I see California in the Kerry Column and it’s 0% counted. Funny how that California automatically gets thrown into the Kerry column and Florida is still “toss-up”. I do recalled that in the last election, Florida was called for Bush around last minute of the voting day.

Interesting concept we have in this election.

Posted by ViriiK at 11:18 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Florida: Don't Hold Your Breath

Paul Begala on CNN is saying that his contacts in Florida are telling him that it’s now THREE counties (all primarily Democratic) that won’t have their absentee ballots counted until Thursday (the deadline): Broward, Palm Beach, and Dade.

Posted by Alan at 09:55 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

CNN: Miami Dade May Not Finish Absentees Until Thursday

CNN’s White House coreespondent just reported that the Election Supervisor in Miami Dade County may not be able to count the majority of the 60,000 absentee ballots until Thursday.

Posted by Alan at 07:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Update on Florida lawsuit

A judge rules in favor of LePore in an emergency hearing.

Posted by Jeff Alexander at 02:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Jesse Jackson is Watching!

Now we know there will be fair elections in Florida! In an interview with the Boca Raton News, Jesse Jackson explains:

“Voter education, voter registration, voter mobilization, and encouraging people to vote their hopes and not their fears. But not just African-Americans. I’m also here for the Jewish Holocaust victims who mistakenly voted for Buchanan last time and the young people in the schools. It’s an American thing.”

Early voting in Florida was established to give every citizen two weeks (15 days to be exact) to schedule their time and cast their vote.

“You suppress the vote by making it inconvenient,” Jackson said. “But it’s amazing how these Christian people have become so hostile and so mean-spirited and so violent.”

Posted by Jeff Alexander at 01:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Update: First lawsuit filed?

Well, here we go. This free speech lawsuit questions the increased buffer zone that was put in place by Theresa LePore, Palm Beach County’s Supervisor of Elections and designer of the 2000 butterfly ballot.

UPDATE: A judge rules in favor of LePore in an emergency hearing.

Posted by Jeff Alexander at 11:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

DNC Sends "IMPORTANT LEGAL NOTICE" to Florida GOP Poll Watchers

An image of the IMPORTANT LEGAL NOTICE on DNC letterhead and mailed to all Florida GOP Poll Watchers is available as a pdf file.

To all Republican Party Election Day Poll Watchers:

Your name has been filed to serve as a poll watcher on Election Day, on behalf of the Republican Party or a Republican Candidate. The Democratic Party recognises the legal rights of poll watchers, under Florida law, to perform their lawful duties.
[…]
You should be aware that under Florida law, a pollwatcher must explain in writing and under oath the basis for a challenge. This affirmation requires the poll watcher must have personal knowledge of the facts upon which the challenge is based.
[…]
Therefore should a challenger make a knowngly false challenge, that person could be subject to criminal prosecution.
[…]
Please be advised that the National Democratic Party and the Florida Democratic Party will insist on strict enforcement of the law. You have now been provided notice of the law, and thus, please govern yourself accordingly.

Posted by Alan Brain at 09:05 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

My scientific study of early voting trends

The partisanship of my polling place was incredible in its absence. Out of the acres of cars and people, I saw one “Bush-Cheney” bumpersticker, one little “W is my president” sticker, one “Anybody But Bush” sticker, and one guy with a “Kerry-Edwards” t-shirt. That’s it! No one else openly proclaimed their faith, and the only political conversation I heard in line was about how crazy it is in other parts of the country. We’re in fricking Florida! If it ain’t crazy here, the rest of the country must be comatose!

Since I was going to be in line for a while, I decided to apply for a government grant to undertake a detailed study of voting trends in my precinct. (The check bounced, but I went ahead anyway.)

According to my scientific survey of 1,000 voters standing in the parking lot of a Florida church, the following conclusions may be drawn:

1-percent of voters are African-American
5-percent are Hispanic
Black or dark-haired voters outnumber blondes by a 2:1 margin
10-percent of male voters and 1-percent of females wear baseball caps
Only one Oriental chick in a thousand will vote in this election
Only two pregnant women in a thousand will vote

Since I only saw one guy with a safari helmet, it’s obvious that both candidates failed in their efforts to draw out the pith helmet vote.

News Organizations should feel free to use this information in their early predictions.

Posted by Solonor at 08:49 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Local turnout HUGE

I just drove to the polling place about 1/4 mile from home, hoping to stop on my way to work. It’s CRAZY INSANE!! The parking lot is overflowing, the parking lot of the church three blocks up the street is overflowing, cars are jammed along the curb of every side street. I decided to come home and walk up there.

Posted by Solonor at 07:09 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Moronski predicts...the Senate

Today in political punditry from Sean Moronski, he casts an eye over the US Senate races.

Every two years, approximately one-third of the U.S. Senate is up for grabs.  Currently, the GOP has 51 seats to the Dems 49 (including the so-called “independent” from Vermont).  In addition to help shape legislation and policy, this body is responsible for granting consent to judges, cabinet members, and other Federal officials.  Given the potential for several Supreme Court appointments over the next several years, control of this chamber may shape the Federal Judiciary for the next generation.

Almost every political observer believes the parties will swap seats in Georgia (to GOP) and Illinois (Dems win).  Putting aside the non-competitive races, there are eight races that will determine control of the Senate - four in the South and four west of the Mississippi in GOP country.  Of these seats, five are held by Democrats and three by Republicans.

North Carolina.  John Edwards chose to run for Vice President rather than face almost certain defeat facing reelection.  The Dem nominee is Erskine Bowles, former Clinton Chief of Staff, who lost a tough fight in 2002 to Elizabeth Dole.  U.S. Rep. Richard Burr has the GOP nod.  Bowles had a solid lead for weeks, but the race has closed to even in this solidly pro-Bush state. 

South Carolina. After 36 years of serving as Strom Thurmond’s junior Senator, Ernest Hollings is calling it quits.  Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint while the Dems are running State Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum.  DeMint is running as a big Bush backer in this hardcore GOP state while Tenenbaum is downplaying any connection to Kerry or the national Democrat party.  Probably a good strategy in a state Bush won’t lose.

Florida.  Another prominent Democrat, Bob Graham, decided to call it a career.  The White House asked Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez to run.  The Dem nominee is former State Education official Betty Castor.  This big race has been the sideshow in the media’s non-stop examination of the Presidential race here.  

Louisiana.  The wildest of wild cards with a unique open primary system that send the top two finishers regardless of party to a December runoff if no one candidate gets 50% plus one vote on Election Day.  GOP candidate U.S. Rep. David Vitter is virtually assured of making the runoff, polling in the low to mid-40s.  The race here is whether the national Democrats can prevent him from winning outright on November 2, as well as what Democrat would make a runoff.  Louisiana has never elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, nor has one served from there since Reconstruction. 

South Dakota.  Major race in a state with fewer than 800,000 people.  Home of Senate Democrat leader Tom Daschle, promoting his role as provider of Federal largesse instead of being Bush’s chief opposition in Washington.  Not unwise given that Bush is likely to win this state by at least 15 to 20 points.  His GOP opponent, former U.S. Rep. John Thune, lost a Senate seat here in 2002 by fewer than 600 votes.

Oklahoma.  Surprise GOP retirement opened up safe seat in a sure Bush state.  The GOP nominee, former U.S. Rep Tom Coburn, an obstetrician and anti-GOP establishment type, has made every mistake he can to turn a potential 25 to 30 point Bush lead into a horserace against the state’s lone Democrat congressman, Brad Carson.

Colorado.  Another GOP retirement put this seat in play.  Democrats nominated State Attorney General Ken Salazar while the Republicans are going with Pete Coors (“cold filtered… not heat pasteurized”).  Yes, that Coors.  Rocky Mountain Cold.

Alaska.  In a word — nepotism.  After being elected, new Governor Frank Murkowski had to appoint a successor to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated.  Of course he chose his daughter Lisa, a state senator.  This boneheaded move did the near impossible, creating a competitive U.S. Senate race in Alaska.  The Dem nominee is former two-term governor Tony Knowles.  This state has no business having a competitve statewide race in a presidential election year where Bush will win by 20+ points.

Bottom line… Dems must win 7 of the 8 races to gain control, or 6 if Kerry wins and Edwards can make himself useful and break ties.  All of these states were won by Bush in 2000, seven of them convincingly.  It can go either way… predictions next week.  

Sean is a former YR Chairman and political hack that successfully domesticated himself recently. His keen eye for politics has not waned as yet.

Posted by Andrew Ian Dodge at 06:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 01, 2004

First lawsuit filed?

Well, here we go. This free speech lawsuit questions the increased buffer zone that was put in place by Theresa LePore, Palm Beach County’s Supervisor of Elections and designer of the 2000 butterfly ballot.

Posted by Jeff Alexander at 08:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

New Polls Show No Consistent Leader In Florida

Florida polling results just shown on CNN TV:

  • Gallup: Kerry 49%, Bush 46% (+/- 3%)
  • Quinnipiac: Bush 51%, Kerry 43% (+/- 3%)
  • InsiderAdvantage: Bush 48%, Kerry 48% (+/- 5%)

The winner? The telemarketing firms doing all the calling …

Posted by Alan at 03:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Writer hit by police at poll

According to the Miami Herald, a journalist and author from New York was punched in the back and arrested by a deputy after he refused to stop photographing early voters waiting on a public sidewalk in West Palm Beach.

Posted by Solonor at 06:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack