Debate Transcripts

Here are two links to transcripts for last night’s debate:

• NY Times
• WaPo

Media Tenor Debate Analysis: More Of The Same

We have a relationship with the folks at Media Tenor International … a quick “about” from their site:

[MTI] is an independent and non-partisan organization, founded 10 years ago and based in Bonn, Germany, with offices in Pretoria, South Africa, Ostrava, Czech Republic, London, U.K. and New York, U.S.

More than 180 media analysts track and code approximately 250 media from different countries every day. Based on the data, Media Tenor’s research offers an objective understanding of the influence of media on politics, the economy and society.

Their content analysis methodology is strong, and we’ve been getting their reports on the MSM coverage of the election for some time. They already have their analysis of the third debate online here (note: PDF file).

In tonight’s TV debate, neither of the candidates managed to gain an upper hand in the overall discussion. There were no significant surprises on how each candidate views the issues that were addressed. Based on Bob Schieffer’s excellent moderation, the debate was able to create a very clear image (almost 80% of the content was issue-focused) on the different approaches Kerry and Bush will use in tackling challenges in healthcare, economics, social issues and domestic security.

Mistakes
4 years ago, the U.S. media declared Bush the winner of the debate because he somewhat exceeded the low expectations the audience and the media had set. Tonight, the performances of both candidates were without major errors. Attacks were present, but for the first time Bush no longer actively portrayed the senator as a “flip-flopper.”

That was in stark contrast with the first and second debates, during which he regularly (about once every nine minutes) accused Kerry of being inconsistent. It is surprising that Bush shifted his approach, since Kerry’s alleged inconsistency was able to draw more media attention than any other issue since the beginning of the debates.

Content
Both candidates’ responses generally fit into their party’s respective molds. A significant difference from the pre-debate media coverage, however, was the focus on hard issues vs. the horse race. Kerry managed to deliver his views on health, religion, the economy, employment and foreign policy, while President Bush defended his policies and argued that Kerry’s plans were flawed. In particular, Kerry’s arguments on economic mismanagement should have some merit with the public, just when the media’s reporting on the economy has reached its lowest point in 2004. This shows the impact of the “It’s the economy, stupid” spin doctors that Kerry have recently brought onto his campaign team.

Projection
After this third debate, it’s likely that the next polls (from respectable sources, not those carried out by websites or non-scientific institutions that flooded the media in the last week) will continue to show a very close race. If the media continues to focus on the horserace rather than content, Kerry may be able to maintain the positive image that polls have created, but the risk of failure will be high if voters can’t clearly remember the policies he
stands for.

Posted by Alan at 06:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Audience Declines for Second Debate

The AP reports the ratings for the three debates thus far, with the slide in the numbers for the second debate showing the effects of a Friday night debate, the Yankees-Twins game and the declining excitement level of multiple debates:

An estimated 46.7 million viewers watched last Friday’s contest . . . compared to the 62.5 million who viewed the Sept. 30 debate.

By comparison, the second debate in 2000 between Bush and former Vice President Al Gore drew 37.6 million viewers.

NBC, with 12.3 million viewers, was the most-watched network, followed by ABC with an audience of 10.3 million, CBS with 8.1 million and Fox with 3.8 million.

Fox News Channel led among cable channels with 7.1 million viewers, while CNN had 3.4 million and MSNBC had 1.7 million. . . .

The sole debate between Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John Edwards drew 43.6 million viewers.

(Emphasis added). The 43.6 million figure compares favorably to 29.1 million viewers for the Cheney-Lieberman debate.

Snap Polls: Kerry Won Debate

That seems to be the initial blush, but as noted below, we have yet to have any post-debate polling data on the election itself.

This comes from Independent Online (South Africa):

• The ABC snap poll has Kerry winning by 44 to 41 percent

• The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has Kerry winning 47 to 45 percent

Both polls are within the margin of error. Each poll surveyed 515 registered voters who watched the debate. The margin of error was plus or minus four to 4,5 percent.

Resolve vs. Change

The CS Monitor considers tonight’s debate as an appeal to “competing impulses” among voters: a sense of resolve vs. a desire for change.

TCP Debate Chat Open Tonight At 7:15 p.m. EDT

Don’t just scream at the TV … join us for real-time discussion, analysis, and perhaps a few debates of our own during the Presidential Debate this evening. We’ll have your town hall right here, baby. Due to our schedules, we’ll be opening the room a bit early … around 7:15 p.m. EDT. Check in then for the link.

Candidates Omit Israel-Palestinian from Debate

REUTERS: Candidates Omit Israel-Palestinian from Debate

Jon Alterman, who heads the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the cursory reference reflects the fact that Israel is not a source of contention between the candidates.

…

Anatol Lieven of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Thursday’s debate “demonstrated the extreme difficulty in the United States of having a serious national debate on subject of strategy toward the Middle East.”

Both Bush and Kerry stressed the importance of bringing peace to the wider region. Bush reiterated his vision of spreading democracy and Kerry talked of reaching out to the Muslim world.

“How can you do that if you ignore the role of Israel in making it so much more difficult to appeal to Muslim moderates,” Lieven said.

“The question is whether after the election, Kerry or Bush may adopt a different strategy. … If you refuse to discuss American terms of support for Israel, a huge part of the debate becomes empty or nonexistent,” he said.

Instant Polls Find Kerry Won The Debate

Bloomberg reports that three instant polls found that Kerry won last night’s debate:

Fifty-three percent of the 613 registered voters who watched the 90-minute debate said Kerry did better, according to a poll by Gallup for CNN and USA Today. Thirty-seven percent backed Bush. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The ABC poll of 531 registered voters found 45 percent said Kerry “won,” against 36 percent for Bush. The incumbent had support from 50 percent of those viewers before the debate and 51 percent after. Kerry was supported by 46 percent before the event and 47 percent afterward.

CBS’s survey, conducted via the Internet, found that 43 percent of 200 uncommitted voters who watched said Kerry won, 28 percent said Bush was the winner and 29 percent said they tied. CBS said the survey was among voters who indicated they are undecided or who said they might change their mind. The margin of error is plus or minus 7 percentage points, CBS said.

From California Yankee.

TCP Chat Opens At 8:45 p.m. EDT

In case you missed it on the main TCP page, we’ll be opening our chat room tonight at 8:45 p.m. so readers can interact during the debate. We’ll post a link to the chat room and instructions for logging in at that time. Read you there!

First presidential debate to focus on foreign policy

HAARETZ/AP: First presidential debate to focus on foreign policy

The first presidential debate and its focus on foreign policy and security gives both President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry opportunities to dig into each other’s record and patch their own weaknesses on Iraq.

On the campaign trail, Bush and Kerry describe Iraq in terms that could make voters wonder if they’re talking about different countries. Bush sees progress toward stability, democratic elections and civic life. Kerry sees increasing instability, little reconstruction and terrorist havens.

Bush has been portraying the Massachusetts Democrat as too indecisive to take the bold action needed to go after terrorists and evildoers. He can trumpet the successful capture of Saddam Hussein and steps he’s taken to improve security at home.

“There’s an opportunity for him to talk about his vision for the war on terror, describe the way forward in Iraq and, more broadly, in expanding freedom and liberty throughout the greater Mideast,” said Bush strategist Karl Rove.

Nevertheless, Wayne Fields, director of American culture studies at Washington University in St. Louis, said “Bush has got to be more detailed” about his policies and goals in Iraq.

“Where are we going to get the troops to go there, and what’s the cost?” he said.

The Debate Take From Oz

Gotta’ love Aussies.

It’s being promoted as a prize fight, with both sides exaggerating their opponents’ abilities. In the blue corner, hoping for a knockout, is Democrat John “Rock Jaw” Kerry, who Republicans insist is the greatest debater since the Roman orator Cicero. In the red, dodging and ready to counterstrike, is Republican George “The Fox” Bush, who Democrats claim has never been bested in a debate.

“Rock Jaw” vs. “The Fox.” Our own A. E. Brain? No, but close: The Australian.

al Qaeda To Target Miami?

This from the NY Daily News:

U.S. law enforcement agencies warned authorities in Miami that the al Qaeda terrorist organization might try to attack during the first presidential debate tomorrow, a government spokeswoman said.

One can only hope this is more “Code Orange” caution …

Greens, Libertarians holding own debate on Thursday

Bush / Cheney Offers Real-Time Debate Response ... To Bloggers

This came via email today from Bush / Cheney:

Today, Bush-Cheney ‘04 announced the launch of www.DebateFacts.com, which will set the record straight on John Kerry’s shifting positions and baseless assertions during the presidential debates, providing real-time responses to Kerry’s vacillation, defeatism and personal attacks.

On Thursday night, you can be a part of setting the record straight.

DebateFacts.com features a live newsfeed for bloggers. This feed will update throughout the debates. Each time John Kerry says something false or inaccurate, you’ll get the facts delivered to you and your readers instantly.

To get your Live Debate Facts feed, go to:

http://www.georgewbush.com/debatefacts/DebateFeed.aspx

The debate feed is available in two sizes: a horizontal feed to insert directly into your posts live-blogging the debates, or a vertical feed you can put in your site’s navigation. Either way, all you need to do is cut and paste a single line of code into your site, and you’re done.

Don’t wait… put the feed on your site today, and be ready for Thursday night’s debate!

http://www.georgewbush.com/debatefacts/DebateFeed.aspx

Speaking of which, we’ll be opening the chat room during each debate, and will post instructions as we near the 30th.

The Debates As Character Forum

The CS Monitor profiles the upcoming debates as test of character more than policy. The Monitor also opines on the debates here.