Exit Poll Panic

The early numbers coming out across the Web portend an absolute Kerry blowout. While that’s not a totally inconceivable result given the record turnout levels, it’s way too early for either side to panic. See OTB for more analysis on this.

Political Expert Sabato: Kerry Is Narrowly Ahead...And It'll Be Close

In his latest version of his highly acclaimed eletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics, sees Kerry with a narrow lead as “the electoral college goes to summer school.”

This time Sabato offers readers a map readers can click on to get analytical state breakdowns. The map and content about each state will be periodically updated, and Sabato and his staff provide you with data from 2000, the Congressional delegation, party breakdown and margin of victory in the last race.

To read his whole piece and get state-by-state breakdowns by clicking on the map go here.

And how does it look so far for 2004? “If the election were held in June 2004, Kerry would narrowly defeat President Bush by 274 to 264 electoral votes,” he writes. However, he writes, “it’s ESSENTIAL to note” this (all of these are from his report):

“1. This is CLOSE. Anyone who believes that the election could not go either way is too partisan to be helped.

2. A June map is NOT predictive of the November results. The world will turn over several times between now and Election Day (137 times, to be exact).

3. While the electoral total is a squeaker today, we caution that the November results may not be nearly as tight. This election could break clearly in one direction come fall, or even (as in 1980) during the last week of the campaign because of late-unfolding events.

4. Notice how many big, important states are balanced on the fencepost. These include: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

5. Since every electoral vote might matter, please also note that there are more than a dozen smaller states which are reasonably competitive and could flip allegiances from the 2000 vote.

6. At least at the starting gate for the general election, the 2000 results have proven to be amazingly durable in drawing up today’s likely Electoral College picture.

7. AS OF JUNE, three small states carried by George Bush four years ago appear to be leaning ever so slightly to John Kerry: Nevada, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. There is no Gore state from 2000 currently leaning to Bush, though Wisconsin seems to be the President’s best bet. Bush is also unmistakably in the hunt for prizes such as Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan.
The Crystal Ball will update the map at regular intervals—and more frequently with the onset of Labor Day.”

“REMEMBER ABOVE ALL: Where we begin does not predict where we will end. Buckle your seat belts and prepare yourselves for a ride so wild that no amusement park could insure it. “

If we click on the map (and we can’t control ourselves) we get data such as this on Florida (we have edited this down to just the main data not all the elected officials etc since it has lots of detail):

Leans Republican….Does everyone have the same spine-tingling fear when they see all the recent polls showing the Sunshine State tied? Please God, not 2000 all over again! It’s very possible, but our current guess is that this is Bush’s low water mark, and that only if Kerry is winning the White House handily does he get Florida, too. It may be Jeb to the rescue for his big brother once again.

Another swing state, Michigan:

Leans Democratic ….Here’s another barnburner. Early polls have shown this huge Midwestern state to be close, and in 2000, Gore managed to win by only 217,000 votes out of well over 4 million cast. Should Bush pull out of his tailspin and soar in the fall, Michigan will be in contention. But the state fairly consistently leans Democratic, and the Democrats control the governorship and both U.S. Senate seats. It will be hard for Bush to wrest this prize from the Kerry column.

The great thing about the analyses of Sabato and his staff is how they step back and assess from a distance, rather than from a partisan cheerleading session, so you feel you’re getting data that’s as objective as possible.

Visit it and click on the states…and you won’t want to stop…as you read the Crystal Ball’s state-by-state political status reports.

Stage Set For Another Florida Voting Mess

Watch Florida. The stage is being set there for yet another vote-counting controversy, this time over new electronic voting machines versus the punch ballots that gave the U.S. electorate a crash course in such quaint phraes as “hanging chads” (which sounds like a high school mass suicide).

Various reports out of Florida paint the picture of a pre-election skirmish over the machines that seemingly lays the groundwork for both sides to justify their position in a new controversy. Like this one from the Tallahassee Democrat:

Despite all of the problems in the 2000 presidential election - or more likely, because of them - Florida is now considered one of the leaders in election reform.

But with five months remaining before voters again cast their ballots for president, a cloud of uncertainty is obscuring what could be one of the smoothest elections ever.

Much of that uncertainty centers on the security of the new electronic voting machines.

With no paper ballots to analyze for voter intent, skeptics ask, how is it possible to do recounts

The machines have also become a high-profile controversy here in California. And, the story notes, while the Women’s League of Voters’ national group has endorsed the machines, local chapters in Florida and California are opposing it.

Gov. Jeb Bush has often characterized the controversy as being fanned by Democrats trying to anger voters into coming to the polls to defeat his brother, President George W. Bush. Indeed, lawsuits against the systems in Florida have come from Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton.

But the entry of the nonpartisan League of Women Voters into the fray - as well as recent delays by some states in implementing the technology until questions are answered - indicates the issue goes beyond partisan politics.

Indeed, Robert Wexler is an effective partisan for his voters and party…but he is above all a partisan. His credibility with Republicans is equal to Tom Delay’s credibility with Democrats. He’s one of those politicos who instantly polarizes the other side and does absolutely zip to win over those in the middle (who know where he is coming from).

But the prominent role of a partisan doesn’t offset increasingly publicized views of groups such as the Women’s League of Voters.

The paper quotes one of our favorite analysts, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, for an outsider’s view:”“A lot of it comes from the computer science and academic fields. It’s being asked all over the country,” Sabato said. “Is there a partisan edge to it? Of course. Democrats, by and large, believe they were cheated out of the presidency in 2000, so they are suspicious - suspicious to the point of paranoia.”

The paranoia has been fed by the truly poor — and dumb — choice of words by a bigwig for one of the biggest companies producing the machines. Read this and see — even if you are a Republican — why Democrats who are distrustful to begin with don’t trust the machines:

Of the major touch-screen system vendors, Diebold, of North Canton, Ohio, has been especially controversial. That is partially because its CEO, Walden O’Dell, is a Bush “Pioneer” who has raised more than $100,000 for the president’s re-election campaign.

The Florida Division of Elections certified its first electronic system by Diebold Elections Systems last month - just as California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley banned a Diebold system in four counties and asked for a criminal investigation because Diebold changed its computer codes without notifying the state.

“I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year,” O’Dell wrote in a 2003 memo inviting Bush supporters to a fund-raiser.

O’Dell has since said he meant he would personally support the president, not through his voting-machine company, adding that would be a “treasonous felony atrocity.”

Diebold spokesman David Bear told the Tallahassee Democrat the company changed some codes in California to reflect a new voting category of “undeclared voter” after it was created by state law, but didn’t change any coding that’s fundamental to tallying ballots.

If you think about it, O’Dell’s comments are what’s spurring much of this controversy on. In America’s 21st Century Polarized Political World, some beliefs on the right and left start with a suspicion that festers.

If a comment or action — no matter how big or small — emerges to even minutely confirm that suspicion, people run with it and the suspicion becomes reality in their perceptions.

The bottom line: look for electronic voting to be looked at with intense distrust and any questions over it turn into huge political and legal issues. The people superivising and installing electronic voting machines are going to have to act to remove even the slightest doubts about the accuracy and legitimacy of the new machines — or by 2005 the cynacism seen in 2000 may one day be seen as a mere raindrop in a skeptical ocean.

Dems on National Security in Louisiana this Weekend

Here’s some news that’s gone wholly unnoticed in press coverage of Election 2004: The Democrats’ “Interactive Platform Tour” will stop in Baton Rouge June 5 to discuss National Security.

I’m not exactly sure how “interactive” this meeting is gong to be. The notice says that there will be “experts” and veterans there, but I have yet to see any listing of who the “experts” are.

Despite the barrage of rhetoric, I’m not sure I see any obvious differences between Kerry’s brand of foreign policy and the status quo, except for heightened use of buzzwords “multilateralism” and “less arrogance.”

Sandy Berger outlined Kerry’s brand of foreign policy in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, but it’s pretty empty of substance.

I’m shocked — SHOCKED — that the Liberal (or “Progressive,” if you want to use the new word for it) wing of the Democrat Party has allowed this to happen. Yes, yes, I know that there’s a noticeable ABB mindset settling in, but the firebrands of the Dean crowd did not strike me as particuarly eager to “buy in.”

(Then again, some Deaniacs are still reluctant to suport Kerry, as the Boston Globe wrote.)

I’d like to know — are there any liberals out there who are actually angry about Kerry’s foreign policy views? Or is everyone on board. Does anyone have any thoughts about the Platform meeting? Did anyone even know about the the Platform meeting?

Finally, does anyone know who the Platform “experts” will be? Anyone want to take any guesses? Maybe Zinni will pause his book tour to participate.

Air America runs bit calling for Bush assassination; GM pulls ads

Via the New York Daily News:

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The United States “is on the slippery slope to theocratic fascism.” “The Catholic Church has been secretly encouraging oral sex for years.”

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld “ought to be tortured.” President Bush should be taken out and shot.

Those are a few nutso nuggets from the hosts of Air America Radio, which calls itself the new liberal voice. The fledgling network is carried in New York on WLIB, 1190 AM. With the Iraq torture scandal everywhere, I tuned in, expecting to hear sober policy analysis mixed with glee over President Bush’s political pickle.

Instead, I got 10 hours of rancid venom directed at the President, Rumsfeld, Rush Limbaugh, the Catholic Church and anyone else the hosts felt like slamming. If you’re a card-carrying lib who likes crude sex jokes and a cartoonish echo chamber, Air America is for you.

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Rock bottom came when she compared Bush and his family to the Corleones in the “Godfather” saga. “Like Fredo, somebody ought to take him out fishing and phuw,” she said, imitating the sound of gunfire.

During a day of torture by radio, I heard ads for Hewlett-Packard, Greyhound and, especially, General Motors. I asked GM why it appeared in such shows.

Ryndee Carney, GM’s manager of marketing communications, said the ads were wrongly picked up from an earlier deal with WLIB. She said the station was ordered to “cease and desist” yesterday, and added: “GM will not advertise on any Air America affiliates.”

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This is a duplicate of the original post on the nikita demosthenes website.

Battle between Democrat Party and Catholic Church continues

Per the New York Daily News:

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A prominent pro-choice politician is quitting the Catholic Church after being told he would be denied Communion, it was reported yesterday.

New Jersey Senate Majority Leader Bernard Kenny (D-Hoboken), a former altar boy, told the Philadelphia Inquirer he’s leaving the church after 57 years.

“I will look for other options to express my faith and will probably join another Christian church,” he said.

- - - - - - -

Kenny told the paper he decided to leave after a meeting with his pastor, Msgr. Frank Del Prete of Sts. Peter and Paul Church in Hoboken. Kenny said he asked if, as a politician who supports abortion rights and stem-cell research, he would be denied Communion.

Del Prete told him he would be permitted Communion one more time “but that then he would tell me not to come again.”

Del Prete yesterday confirmed the meeting but said he was not at liberty to discuss it.

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Newark Archbishop John Myers wrote this month that it was “objectively dishonest” for Catholics who “publicly dissent” with the church’s pro-life teachings to receive Communion. “No one has an absolute right to the Eucharist,” Myers wrote.

The statement led New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey to say he would not take Communion, at least in public.

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry - who is also pro-choice and Catholic - received Communion yesterday at a Mother’s Day Mass in suburban Pittsburgh.

A task force of U.S. bishops is considering Communion guidelines for Catholics who publicly advocate abortion rights and other positions fundamentally at odds with the church.

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This is a duplicate of the original post at the nikita demosthenes website.

Democrats Attempt Massive Voter Fraud in Chicago

In Cook County, Illinois - a jurisdiction in which every single elected official is a Democrat - a massive attempt at voter fraud has been uncovered. Here are excerpts from the story in the Chicago Tribune:

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As many as 2,000 fraudulent voter registrations, almost all from the city’s 26th Ward, have been submitted in advance of Tuesday’s primary election, and two suspects are under investigation, election officials announced Thursday.

The two gathered registrations on behalf of the Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration, a Washington, D.C.-based affiliate of the Puerto Rican government, officials said.

“I don’t want to indict the organization,” said Langdon Neal, chairman of the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. “It has been a very valuable partner in registering voters.”

- - - - - - -

“We consider this one of the largest cases of fraud we have seen in many years,” he said.

The 26th Ward, on the city’s Near Northwest Side, has about 24,000 registered voters.

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“[A] very valuable partner in registering voters” indeed. Perhaps this sort of thing is the reason why every single elected official in Cook County is a Democrat.

Chicago’s 26th Ward - the epicenter of the fraud - is also dominated by Democrats. See, e.g., the web sites of Alderman Billy Ocasio and Congressman Luis Gutierrez.

Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post on the nikita demosthenes website.

California Supreme Court Halts San Francisco Gay Marriages

The Supreme Court of California, earlier today, halted gay marriages in San Francisco. Here’s an excerpt from the late-breaking story in the L.A. Times:

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The California Supreme Court today halted same-sex weddings in San Francisco until it could decide whether local authorities have the right to ignore state laws that limit marriage to heterosexuals.

The seven-justice panel will hear arguments sometime in the spring.

In the unanimously approved order, the justices made it clear that they would be considering only one question — whether San Francisco officials could defy state law, and not whether same-sex couples have the right to marry.

Today’s ruling is a major setback to San Francisco officials and their allies in gay rights groups who were hoping to have the high court consider their argument that the state Constitution bars discrimination against gay couples.

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Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post at the nikita demosthenes website.

MoveOn.org to Counter Bush's Ad Blitz

A Democratic-leaning online group will run television commercials in 17 presidential battleground states starting Thursday to counter President Bush’s multimillion-dollar advertising blitz that will begin the same day.

This $1.9 million, five-day effort will be its most far-reaching. The ads will ensure that there is a Democratic presence on the TV airwaves in key states as Bush begins to make his case for re-election.

In most states, MoveOn will run a new ad that takes Bush to task for his economic policies, including overtime pay and outsourcing jobs. In others, the group will run a previously released spot that shows images of children toiling on a grocery line and in a tire factory coupled with the text, “Guess who’s going to pay off President Bush’s $1 trillion deficit?”

Ads will run over five days at medium levels on broadcast stations in 67 media markets in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The television industry estimates that the average viewer in each media market would see a MoveOn spot about five times during the group’s ad run.

“We’re really stepping up our efforts to make sure our members’ voices are heard,” Wes Boyd, the group’s founder, said Tuesday. “We are trying to get these messages out about these fundamental issues.”

FOX News

Candidate Schedules

Edwards

Our supporters will gather with Senator Edwards at 7:00 PM in Atlanta for an election night party.
Georgia Tech Hotel & Convention Center, 800 Spring Street NW.

Kerry

7:00 pm West Hartford, CT
Connecticut supporters of John Kerry plan to gather at the Prospect Cafe to watch Super Tuesday returns come in.

7:00 pm Washington, DC
John Kerry will host a Super Tuesday Election Night Party at the Old Post Office Pavilion at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue. This event is open to the public - please join us!

Kucinich

subject to change WITHOUT NOTICE

4:00 - 7:00 p.m. ET
Polling
Campaign contact: Darlene White, (216) 458-7120
Site # 1: Woodbury Elementary School
15400 South Woodland Ave.
Shaker Heights, Ohio
Site # 2: Holy Trinity, Ward 2
3808 East 131st Street
Cleveland, Ohio
Site # 3: Corlett Library, Ward 2
3830 East 131st
Cleveland, Ohio

Cleveland, Ohio
7:30 p.m. ET
Campaign Watch Party
Club Moda
1871 West 25th
Campaign contacts: Tia Sanford, (216) 536-3576 and Lea Tolls, (216) 337-7215

Al Sharpton is expected in New York

NYT has an interesting article in the Kerry/Edwards relationship

… Three years ago when, at Mr. Kerry’s suggestion, the two had dinner at Olives, a trendy restaurant near the White House, to swap stories after Al Gore passed over both in picking a running mate. Each told associates he enjoyed the other’s company, but it was not quite the beginning of a beautiful relationship.
Now, as the presidential campaign has narrowed to a race between the two senators on the eve of the coast-to-coast Super Tuesday primaries, strains between them are growing evident.
Their relationship has become a source of speculation among Democrats, not only because they are rivals in the primaries but also because party leaders are increasingly entertaining the notion of a Kerry-Edwards ticket.
They have at times seemed chummy, as they did during Thursday’s debate in Los Angeles, when Mr. Edwards gently touched Mr. Kerry on the shoulder during a point of disagreement. But they have also seemed distant, as was the case on Sunday in New York, when they shook hands after a particularly contentious televised exchange and went their separate ways with few words……..

“Chemistry is an elusive thing; you never know until you try,” said Senator Evan Bayh, the Indiana Democrat, a friend of Mr. Edwards. “I’m sure that whatever the substantive or stylistic differences now, they could work their way through that for the common good.”

“I really don’t think either would pick the other,” said Senator Orrin G. Hatch, the Utah Republican, adding, “Well, they might if they’re forced to.”
Asked how the two Democrats get along, Mr. Hatch replied: “I don’t think particularly well. Kerry is not the warmest person, and Edwards just hasn’t been here.”

Georia Projection

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV tracking poll conducted by Zogby International is projecting Kerry 51%, Edwards 37% in Georgia. (no direct link available yet)

Looking for a VP?

Campaigns and Elections Mag. showing the popular VP choices.

DEMOCRATIC VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION 2004

TOP TIER CHOICES:
Sen. John Edwards (NC), 4 to 1 (20% chance)
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance)
Gov. Ed Rendell (PA), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Evan Bayh (IN), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Gen. Wesley Clark, 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance)

On The Trail And Talking Points.

Enron overtaken as Bush’s top financial supporter by MBNA

with its employees giving more than $603,000 to Mr. Bush.

Executives at Enron continued to give to Mr. Bush in small amounts, despite the company’s bankruptcy filing. The president received $3,000 in 2003 from four people who listed Enron as their employer, according to the center. Enron’s collapse amid an accounting scandal gave rise to corporate accountability measures and helped pass the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation in 2002. The company was a sore spot for Mr. Bush, who was friends with the company’s chief executive, Kenneth L. Lay.

Democrats, including the presidential candidates, have not been shy about trying to connect the company to the president - criticism that is likely to continue. An aide at the Bush campaign declined to comment on the company’s change on Mr. Bush’s rankings.

Edwards repetitive?

Mr. Edwards’s prospects of winning California appear bleak; his campaign clearly recognizes this and scratched a day of campaigning that had been set for Friday in the state. And the speech, for its all striking themes and rhetoric, did not appear to draw an abundant amount of attention, a reflection of the level of interest in this contest and the perception that the better days of Mr. Edwards’s campaign might be behind him.
But no matter. Perhaps some of the 1,000 or so students who heard this Washington politician make a decidedly unusual appeal will remember one day what they heard, and will take the message to heart. And who knows; one day, if not this year, or even this election, they might take the messenger to heart as well.

Kerry and Edwards Duel

In California, Mr. Edwards offered a broad anti-poverty plan that he said could help create five million new jobs, partly by offering access to venture capital and tax incentives to create work in poor communities. “People say that we can never lift Americans out of poverty, and I say we will,” said Mr. Edwards. “We will so long as each one of us tries.”

Mr. Kerry, in Ohio, emphasized a plan introduced in the Senate that would require companies to give workers 90 days notice if they intend to move operations offshore. They would also have to provide the rationale for the shift, the location they are going and the number of workers affected. “Companies will no longer be able to surprise their workers with a pink slip instead of a paycheck,” he said. Mr. Edwards backs that plan as well.

The policy proposals appeared to have a double aim. Not only are they intended to win votes in areas that have experienced job loss, but they allow the candidates to counter President Bush’s criticism earlier this week that his opponents are only carping, not offering alternative plans.

Both men are also taking a page from former President Bill Clinton’s playbook in emphasizing the economic front. It worked for him against a Bush in the White House. Whether it can work for the Democratic nominee this time will depend on the state of the economy and how well this President Bush does at showing how his plans are contributing to economic growth.

NYT Times on the Trail

More Kerry - Edwards

Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) clashed over the death penalty, trade and special interests in a lively debate here Thursday, with Edwards questioning Kerry’s ability to carry crucial swing states against President Bush and Kerry touting his experience as a key ingredient for victory this fall.
The gay-marriage issue arose on a day when celebrity Rosie O’Donnell was married in San Francisco.

“What’s happening here is this president is talking about first amending the United States Constitution for a problem that does not exist,” Edwards said. “The law today does not require one state to recognize the marriage of another state.” ……………

Kerry was asked about his opposition to the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, one of 14 senators to do so. He was reminded that he had opposed it in part because he believed it was unconstitutional and was asked whether Bush is correct in saying the only way to ensure that other states do not have to recognize gay marriages approved elsewhere is through a constitutional amendment. Kerry seemed to back away from his previous position.

“I think, under the ‘full faith and credit’ laws, that I was incorrect in that statement,” Kerry said. “I think, in fact, that no state has to recognize something that is against their public policy. And for 200 years, we have left marriage up to the states. There is no showing whatsoever today that any state in the country, including my own — which is now dealing with its own constitutional amendment — is incapable of dealing with what they would like to do.”

WaPo

More on Gay Marriage

From a political standpoint, calling for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage was probably a “win-win” for the White House. Polls show most Americans support banning same-sex marriage, even while many of them support allowing some form of civil unions.
The White House’s calculation is that — given support in the polls for banning same-sex marriage — the president won’t face a backlash from moderate voters. And those who are most likely to be angered aren’t going to vote for him anyway.
On the other hand, the president appeases a base that has grown frustrated with his reluctance to insert himself into the culture wars that dominated the early 1980s

WaPo

Final Numbers From Nevada

From the Nevada State Democratic Party website:

UNOFFICIAL RESULTS (99% Precincts Reporting)

Statewide
Kerry, John: 63%
Dean, Howard: 17%
Edwards, John: 10%
Kucinich, Dennis: 7%
Sharpton, Al: 1%
Uncommitted: 3%
Other: Less than 1%

Official Results of the Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus will be certified the week of Feb. 16th.

Dirty Politics

(CNN) — Despite calls to move away from negative attacks in the 2004 presidential campaign season, Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie and campaign officials for Democratic hopeful John Kerry traded barbs, each accusing the other of dirty politics.

Gillespie accused Democrats on Thursday night of “using some of the most vitriolic rhetoric in the history of presidential politics,” then called his Democratic counterpart the “John Wilkes Booth of presidential character assassination.”

His speech in Reno, Nevada, focused on Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who is the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination.

“We highlight policies, and note Senator Kerry’s long Senate record. They accuse the president of desertion — a military crime punishable by death — as the Clark campaign did, or accuse the president of being AWOL, which is a felony, punishable by imprisonment, as DNC chair Terry McAuliffe has done,” Gillespie said. “Terry McAuliffe has become the John Wilkes Booth of presidential character assassination.”

Questions about Bush’s service in the Texas Air National Guard recently intensified after McAuliffe said Bush was absent without leave from his Guard service from May 1972 to May 1973 when he was transferred from Texas to Alabama so he could work on a Senate political campaign.

The White House has fought back, releasing payroll records it says prove Bush fulfilled his requirements and was honorably discharged. Most recently, the White House released a document showing that Bush received a dental exam at the Dannelly Air National Guard Base in Montgomery, Alabama on January 6, 1973.

“It’s only February and they have made clear they intend to run the dirtiest campaign in modern presidential politics. This is because they don’t want a debate on the issues, and they don’t want to run on Senator Kerry’s record,” Gillespie said.

In response to Gillespie’s speech, James Bilbray and Terry Care, co-chairs of Kerry’s Nevada campaign, issued a statement calling Gillespie the president’s “favorite attack dog” who was spreading “false, nasty personal charges.”

They urged Bush to “call off his right-wing slime machine.”

“This is the dirtiest, most ruthlessly political White House since Richard Nixon, and they’re desperate to hide the worst jobs record since Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression,” the statement said.

Todays Dish on the Candidates.

Howard Kurtz of WaPo gives a selective detailed history of Kerry’s career.

The chairman of the Tennessee Democratic Party, Randall A. Button, gives his thoughts on the two southern candidates.

And the latest from AP following the candidates.

Kurtz

“Between 1985 and 1990, Kerry’s first five years in the Senate from Massachusetts, he pocketed annual amounts slightly under the limits for speaking fees set by Congress. Unlike many colleagues, he donated a speaking fee to charity only once, according to annual financial disclosure reports reviewed by The Associated Press.

“One of the companies to pay Kerry $1,000 for a speech in 1987, Miami-based Metalbanc, was later indicted, along with two executives, on charges it helped the Cali drug cartel in Colombia launder money in the United States. The charges eventually were dropped because the firm was defunct.

“At the time of the 1987 speech to Metalbanc, Kerry was chairman of the Senate subcommittee that investigated drug trafficking and money laundering.

“Kerry, now the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, said he didn’t learn about the drug connection to the company or its executives, who also gave him political donations, until The Boston Globe informed him of it in 1996. He donated several thousand dollars to charities to make amends.”

Button

“They are both Southerners that have a message that resonates with Southerners,” Mr. Button said. If they lose, he said, “it’s gotten down to this: Let’s move ahead to our objective, and our objective is unseating George W. Bush.”

AP

In a fresh sign of growing strength, the Massachusetts senator also gained an endorsement from Sen. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin, one week ahead of that state’s primary.

Clark made the rounds in Nashville, delivering doughnuts to volunteers at polling places around the city. “I’m helping the people who are helping me change the country,” he said. “We can do it.”

Edwards paid a visit to a morning polling place in northern Virginia and made plans to fly to Wisconsin later in the day in a show of determination to remain in the race. His campaign manager, Nick Baldick, told reporters the campaign has enough money to compete through the end of the month.

Howard Dean made little effort in the day’s primary states, focusing his efforts on Wisconsin.

Sunday Show Off

No doubt everyone will be tuning into Meet The Press tomorrow.

Every President since John F. Kennedy has appeared on the program during their political career. President Bush will become the fourth President to appear while in office

John Edwards will have a chance to counter Kerry with his appearances on This Week with George Stephanopolous and Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.

Lost support, Lost ambition.

AFSCME has withdrawn support for Dean in the light of latest standing.

While Edwards continues to seek Union backing he is now saying that he doesn’t need the win in Tenn., Wis. and Va.

Dean up for VP

When asked on a radio interview yesterday if he would accept the VP slot,

“I would, to the extent, do anything I could to get rid of President Bush. I’ll do whatever is best for the party. Obviously, I’m running for president, but whatever’s best is what I’ll do. Anything.”

On The Today Show this morning Dean added,

“if John Kerry were the nominee, I’d advise him not to pick me because you don’t need two people from New England on the ticket”

My Vote Counts.

I got to polls early to avoid the crowd. My voting location is actually a block down the street from my house so I decided to walk. Well, I ran part of the way from a mangy neighborhood dog. There were only a few people there and I was happy I didn’t have to sign an oath. It was an Elementary School and there were children everywhere fulfilling their responsibility to stand in a strait line and not move. I was amused to see that Carol and Dick were still on the ticket, I’m sure they’ll still get a few votes. On the way back home I wondered, while watching out for the dog, if I voted for whom I meant to vote for as I didn’t double check the name beside my check-mark. Oh well, here is a little of what’s going on this morning.

A Wapo article say’s Edwards will drop from the race if he doesn’t win SC.

the decision will be simple. Edwards will congratulate Kerry, quickly endorse the Massachusetts senator as the Democratic nominee and head home.

However, MSNBC has been reporting that Edwards has denied that he made those remarks. As he should. It seems absurd to me that the leader in SC would even mention dropping out at this point.

A Tale of Two Polls

Tonight's primary vote will also help us to properly assess Zogby's habit of factoring in "leaners". I am skeptical of this practice myself, but time will be the judge. Below are two polls, one is from ARG which doesn't assign undecideds to one camp or the other. The other is from Zogby, who has completely eliminated the undecided category by asking people which way they lean. I think this gives a false image of the electorate ... but who am I.

The Latest ARG Poll. Does not factor in "leaners."


The Latest Zogby Poll. Does factor in "leaners."

Primary Tracking 02-03-04
	AZ	MO	OK	SC
Kerry	42	56	29	32
Dean	15	9	6	8
Edwards	7	17	26	36
Clark	28	6	31	8
Lieberman	6	3	6	5
Kucinich	1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Sharpton	0	4	1	8
Undecided	*	*	*	*
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding In today’s release, Leaners among the Undecideds have been factored in. *Undecideds have been eliminated in the Final percentage. [ Read More ]

The Beginning of the End.

Sen. Kerry has a few lines which he doesn’t overuse; “This campaign is the beginning of the end for the Bush White House”, or “Don’t vote to send a message, vote to send a Dem. President into the White House”. Perhaps this will assist to his advantage in a dual with Edwards and his popular yet painfully repeatitive “2 America’s” stump speech. Though Kerry affiliation with Special Interest might get the best of him yet.

While this New York Times artilce, Left at the Alter, Missouri Seeks New Groom at Last Minute, notes the sizable trophy awaiting John Kerry,

Missouri is far from Mr. Kerry’s base in Massachusetts. It is also one of the first states on the electoral calendar with large metropolitan areas — St. Louis and Kansas City and their suburbs will account for nearly three-quarters of the vote — and populous rural areas, too. It has a sizable African-American minority (11.2 percent) and a growing Hispanic population.

In brief, it has most of the pieces of the American puzzle.

The Associted Press; Kerry, Dean Spar over Special Interest continues to show Kerry’s weak spots coming to the foreground. Edwards sits from the sidelines as Dean builds on a confrontation in his remarks yesterday about Kerry,

“He misrepresented himself, grossly misrepresented himself, as a candidate who would take on special interests in Washington,”

This Washington Post article is already getting a lot of attention. Dean Vows to Stay In Race Even if he is Winless Tuesday

“To suggest that anyone ought to step out of the race after 10 percent of the delegates are selected is ridiculous,” he said at an appearance in Milwaukee

Rueters is keeping it’s eye in the quiet guys.

Edwards leads SC, Clark in OK.

“If Edwards wins in South Carolina and polls strongly enough to win delegates in Missouri and Oklahoma, he has some significant regional strength and can certainly make a case to go on,” pollster John Zogby said.

On Campaign Trail, Edwards Combines Personal With Political, NYT, notes that Edwards

is able to use vivid language and big themes to move his audiences in a way that none of his opponents, except perhaps for Howard Dean, have been able to do.

It is one reason, many Democrats say, that should Mr. Edwards survive the primary here on Tuesday and show some strength elsewhere, he may emerge as the only Democrat with a shot at stopping Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts after his wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Washington Post, Eager to Face Any Jury - and the Voters notes his inspiring lovability,

“The problem was that all the older women wanted to take him home as their son, and all the younger ones wanted to go out with him,” rued an attorney for several doctors sued by Edwards on behalf of brain-damaged babies. “You’d think, ‘Okay, if the women like him, the men must hate him.’ But then the guys just saw him as one of them.”

One thing is for sure. Tomorrow marks the official beginning of the end for somebody.

[Cross-Posted at The Temporal Globe]

S.C. Primary News 1/29

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
(See also today’s primary calendar in the Post & Courier)
12 p.m. Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1 p.m. “Candidate Welcome Lunch & Drop-In,” Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
6 p.m. “Heat It Up In January” Debate-Watching Party, Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
6 p.m. “South Carolina Victory” Debate-Watching Dinner & After-Party, Coliseum Ristorante (formerly Occasionally Blues), West End Market, 1 Augusta St., Greenville
6:30 p.m. Greenville Technical College Debate-Watching Assembly, Verne Smith Library/Technical Resource Center, Greenville Tech
6:30 Clemson University Debate-Watching Assembly, Lee Hall Auditorium on Campus, Clemson.
7 p.m. (doors close at 6) Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, 600 S. Main St., Greenville
8:30 p.m. S.C. Democratic Party Chairman’s Reception, Poinsett Restaurant, Westin Poinsett Hotel, 120 South Main St., Greenville
[Remaining Schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
According to Fox News, Clark made his stop in Charleston yesterday just a fuel stop for his plane so that he could still make it to Missouri and Arizona yesterday under FAA regulations for pilot rest.

Democrats distribute ballots, The State
S.C. requires parties to run their own presidential preference primaries (one of two states that still does so) and that usually means old-fashioned paper ballots.

Politics has a past in South Carolina, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Welcome, Dems, to an uneasy state, The Greenville News

Candidates aim for middle in South Carolina, USA Today

Steven Taylor points out that Dean is not airing ads in South Carolina, or any other state with a February 3 primary. Taegan Goddard has more.

Four Peas In a Pod, S.C. GOP News Release

Clyburn Endorses Kerry from my post yesterday.

Kevin McGeehee discusses the effect of the Kerry endorsement by Clyburn on Edwards and the possible withdrawal of Dean endorsements by some union leaders.

Clyburn to endorse Kerry, Greenville News

Kerry, Edwards vie for S.C. prize, The State
Photo of Edwards in Orangeburg

James Joyner links to and discusses Black voters play key role in S. Carolina, Missouri in the Washington Times.

Kerry, Edwards pursue black votes in South Carolina, Charleston Post & Courier
Black voter turnout to make a difference, Greenville News

Ranks of Hispanic voters swelling, Greenville News

Economy on minds in South Carolina, Raleigh News & Observer

Hopefuls try to woo disaffected workers, The State

Kerry likely target as rivals debate tonight in Greenville,Post & Courier

Some advice for the candidates, Lee Bandy, The State

Democrats try to reach state’s voters tonight, Greenville News

Local voters still in listening mode, Greenville News

Brokaw holds candidates to their word, Greenville News
Complete Transcript of Brokaw interview
Photo Gallery of Tom Brokaw doing the NBC Nightly News in Greenville.

Erwin ‘doggedly’ sought local debate, Greenville News

S.C. Young Democrats reveling in big night, The State

Three-ring media circus descends on Greenville, Greenville News
Photo Gallery of debate preparations

City rolling out debate red carpet, Greenville News

Debate worth more than money, Greenville News

Belton songbird to open debate, Greenville News

Wonkette has links to S.C.-related articles.

Remaining Schedule:
1/30: 7:30 a.m. “Breakfast with the Boys,” Palmetto Exposition Center, 1 Exposition Ave., Greenville
1/30: 11 a.m: Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
2/2: John Edwards, Seneca
2/3 7:30 p.m., Charleston County Democrats Election Bash, City Bar, 192 East Bay Street, Charleston

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com

Yesterday’s Primary News

S.C. Primary News 1/28

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
8 a.m. Wesley Clark, Charleston
10 a.m. John Edwards, Fine Arts Center, S.C. State Univ., Orangeburg
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Note: As of late Tuesday evening, 200,000 S.C. residents were still without power following a winter storm earlier in the week.

Presidential candidate to visit SCSU today from the Orangeburg Times & Democrat discusses John Edwards’ trip to Orangeburg today.

Edwards packed for South Carolina after N.H. verdict from Ross Sneyd of the AP via Boston.com

Howard Kim writes in the Yale Daily News that “South Carolina, and not Iowa or New Hampshire, will be remembered as a crucial turning point in the 2004 Democratic Primaries.”

Taegan Goddard discusses the latest Survey USA poll for South Carolina:

According to a new Survey USA poll, Sen. John Edwards leads the South Carolina primary with 32 percent. Wesley Clark is second with 17 percent, Howard Dean is third at 16 percent and Sen. John Kerry is fourth at 13 percent. Just two weeks ago, Dean and Clark were tied for first.

Once again, Michael Graham offers a caveat regarding South Carolina polling for the Democratic primary.

Analysts say S.C. can seal it for Kerry in The State features analysis from Larry Sabato and Don Fowler.

After wins in Iowa and NH, Kerry must make up for lost time in SC from the Associated Press includes comments from Sabato, Scott Huffmon and former Governor Jim Hodges.

South Carolina Primary Looms Large from the Newhouse News Service quotes Dick Harpootlian, Ferrell Guillory and Don Fowler.

Military retirees urge better benefits by Lauren Markoe of Knight-Ridder discusses military retirees and veterans in S.C. and how they might vote.

Black voters play key role in S. Carolina, Missouri, Washington Times

Another article in The State discusses the reporting from around the country on the S.C. primary.

Mike questions the following tidbit from a Reuters story:

Republicans and independent voters can vote in South Carolina’s Democratic primary, but must sign a pledge publicly declaring themselves Democrats.

I recall some reporting of this before and I seem to remember comments in the local media that it wasn’t a legally binding pledge and had no impact on voting in state primaries later this year.

Lost Jobs Trump All in South Carolina Primary, Reuters

Mike also discusses something he heard on MSNBC:

Alex Witt on MSNBC:

“Dean says he’ll win South Carolina.”

The same Lawrence O’Donnell:

“That’s nuts.”

WIS is accepting questions from viewers for Friday’s candidate forum in Columbia.

Wyeth Ruthven provides an in-depth rundown of the South Carolina Primary for Taegan Goddard.

Democrats’ Greenville debate sparks party atmosphere, Greenville News

Forget the South, Democrats… Stop coddling the spoiled brat of presidential politics by Timothy Noah at Slate.

Jack O’Toole, a S.C. blogger and consultant, responds to Kerry’s comments on the South. The State also reports on Kerry’s remarks.

Kat, another S.C. blogger, discusses why she can no longer support Howard Dean.

Stephen Green discusses the upcoming Southern primaries.

Go Dubya discusses Clark’s chances in S.C.

Remaining Schedule:
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1 p.m. “Candidate Welcome Lunch & Drop-In,” Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
1/29: 6 p.m. “Heat It Up In January” Debate-Watching Party, Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
1/29: 6 p.m. “South Carolina Victory” Debate-Watching Dinner & After-Party, Coliseum Ristorante (formerly Occasionally Blues), West End Market, 1 Augusta St., Greenville
1/29: 6:30 p.m. Greenville Technical College Debate-Watching Assembly, Verne Smith Library/Technical Resource Center, Greenville Tech
1/29: 6:30 Clemson University Debate-Watching Assembly, Lee Hall Auditorium on Campus, Clemson.
1/29: 7 p.m. (doors close at 6) Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, 600 S. Main St., Greenville
1/29: 8:30 p.m. S.C. Democratic Party Chairman’s Reception, Poinsett Restaurant, Westin Poinsett Hotel, 120 South Main St., Greenville
1/30: 7:30 a.m. “Breakfast with the Boys,” Palmetto Exposition Center, 1 Exposition Ave., Greenville
1/30: 11 a.m: Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com

Yesterday’s Primary News

Who's Out, Who's Not: Instant NH Analysis

If the numbers hold up, it looks like Kerry could have another impressive victory in New Hampshire. With 71% of Districts reporting CNN has called the race. Kerry appears to have won by around 15% of the vote. So the question now is who still has a chance and who doesn’t.

Read the Rest on the TCP-OpEd Page.

S.C. Primary News 1/27

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Previous Primary News update

Today’s Schedule:
9 p.m., Blues Traveler concert for Wesley Clark, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Michael Graham discusses S.C. polling and John Kerry’s recent comments.

6 of the 7 remaining candidates are confirmed for the Center for Community Change forum in Columbia Friday. Howard Dean hasn’t confirmed yet. The Blues Traveler concert for Clark tonight has been cancelled due to weather conditions. Sharpton campaigned in the state yesterday and his event last night was cancelled due to weather.

The S.C. chapter of the DLC is sponsoring a pre-debate survey online. It includes a mechanism to submit questions for individual candidates. The deadline for completing the survey is Wednesday night at 11:59 (I’m assuming since the date on the survey press release at SC Hotline says Wednesday the 29th that they meant Wednesday the 28th since the debate itself will be over by 11:59 p.m. on the 29th.)

Forget the South? from ABCNews.com features John Kerry’s remarks on the South.

Glenn Reynolds links to a Tom Maguire post on the Kerry remarks. Reynolds also links to Wyeth Ruthven’s post found below and to a list of S.C. political links at GlennReynolds.com.

Wyeth Ruthven discusses S.C. poll numbers and Kerry’s remarks on the South.

Mike also discusses the poll numbers.

S.C. primary poll has Edwards on top, The State, 1/26/04

The State features an article today on the resurgence of the Young Democrats in South Carolina and features a picture of Sunday’s Generation Dean rally in Columbia.

Democratic campaign poised to shift to South Carolina, Greenville News, 1/27/04:

Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean are pressing their campaigns in South Carolina, as is Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman. U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich is sticking in the race, too.

Armstrong said Kerry now has 11 people in South Carolina, as many as U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri had when he dropped out after Iowa and far less than some of the others.

Clark has 55 paid staffers operating out of Columbia and regional offices, an increase of 19 in two weeks. Edwards campaign reported nine, plus others from a post-Iowa influx. The Dean and Lieberman campaigns couldn’t be reached for comment, but on Jan. 12 reported 35 and seven staffers, respectively.

Democrats and God, The State, 1/27/04

Older black women a primary key, The State, 1/26/04

Sharpton tells voters he will not drop out, Associated Press, 1/26/04

Make-or-break outcome likely in S.C. Democratic vote, Charleston Post & Courier, 1/25/04

Democrats in state see long-term gains, Greenville News, 1/25/04

A Candidate’s Guide to South Carolina, The State, 1/25/04

Choosing to vote is the most important primary decision by Joe Erwin, 1/25/04

Campaign tuned to voices of minorities, Charleston Post & Courier, 1/25/04

Lights. Cameras. Democracy. by Andy Arnold

A Regular Guy by John G. Lee of Carolina Conservative (column on Edwards.)

Remaining Schedule:
1/28: John Edwards,
1/28: Wesley Clark, Charleston
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30:Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Previous Primary News update

Judgment Day ... for Pollsters and the Press

The last two days, the television media has been dominated by the story of Dean’s possible comeback in NH. The impetus for these stories was the Zogby Tracking polls which showed Dean pulling even with Kerry, statistically speaking. The problem that the big media didn’t seem to want to address was that several other tracking polls had very different forcasts. Almost all had Kerry’s margin of victory at +10 percentage points. The Boston Globe has Kerry up by 17% and the ARG has had Kerry with as much as an 18% lead over Dean as recent as yesterday. The reason for this huge discrepancy is that the Zogby poll that everyone has been citing factored in “leaners”, i.e. of the undecided who leans where. One the one hand this methodology can help to forcast where the undecided are going to fall in the critical moment, but on the other there is a certain risk in assuming that these “undecided” can describe which way they are truly leaning with any sort of accuracy.

Its important to note that Zogby’s latest tracking numbers do not factor in leaners and thus reflect similar percentages to the other tracking polls. This latest poll shows Kerry leading with 37% and Dean in second with 24%. That’s a pretty large margin.

The outcome of today’s contest will tell us something about the methodology of factoring in leaners and also about the ability of big media to take differring methodologies into account when reporting on polls.

Clark Takes Commanding Lead in NH Primary!

Well, okay, as of 1:11AM EST out of 24 Democratic Primary votes cast in Dixville Notch and Harts Location, Wesley Clark took 14 (58%), Kerry takes 8 (33%) Dean and Edwards both tie at 4 (17% each), Lieberman takes 1 (4%), while Kucinich and Sharpton draw a goose egg. It’s gonna be a long day. Go get some sleep, why don’t ‘cha?

(Numbers from The Concord Monitor)

S.C. Primary News 1/24

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
1:30 p.m.: Generation Dean Press Conference, Statehouse, Columbia
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Dan Hoover writes about the “enhanced political stature” of the campaign of John Edwards. A picture of Edwards in Columbia is also featured in the article.

Edwards appeared via satellite from his Columbia HQ last night on Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO.

An AP article also discusses Edwards in the state yesterday.

John Drake writes in The State today about the resurgence of Edwards’ campaign and the possibility of a Clyburn endorsement. Edwards also downplayed the Hollings endorsement of Kerry:

“I love Fritz Hollings,” Edwards said. “He’s a good man, but we learned in Iowa how much difference these endorsements make.”

Lee Bandy writes in The State today about Edwards, Kerry and Clark and their courting of swing voters.

The Greenville News has an expanded Election 2004 section which focuses on the Democratic Primary for now. The State features an Election 2004 also.

A New York Times article reprinted in the Post & Courier further discusses the revamping of the Kerry campaign in SC after the opinion of some Democrats that he ignored the state after officially kicking off his national campaign in Charleston.

An AP article by Jennifer Holland discusses the support Al Sharpton has in South Carolina.

Remaining Schedule:
1/27: 9 p.m., Blues Traveler concert for Wesley Clark (Clark will depart NH and arrive at the event later), Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday’s Primary News

The Pre-NH Toast-O-Metere (1/24/04)

This week’s Toast is done, with a substantial re-shuffling of the Loaf.

Just in from New Hampshire

The latest from the political columnist who most accurately captures the perspective of most Americans.

S.C. Primary News 1/23

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
[Remaining Schedule Posted Below]

News:
Fritz Hollings endorsed John Kerry.

A picture of Hollings at the endorsement announcement.

The Greenville News has more on the endorsement (excerpts below.) Edwards picked up some more endorsement from previous Gephardt endorsements that are also listed in the article.

The Post & Courier also covered the endorsement (excerpts below.) The article closes with a mention that Hollings also supported the presidential bid of another Massachusetts Senator - Ted Kennedy.

Today’s Washington Post features a story on the courting of Jim Clyburn (excerpts below.) and a picture of Clyburn in his office.

An article in The State discusses a special state senate election which will be held the same day as the presidential primary in Kershaw County. S.C. still requires parties to run their own presidential preference primaries (including providing their own volunteers. The article indicates that the presidential primary will be able to share polling places with the special election.

An article that originally appeared in the Charlotte Observer discusses the impact of the black vote in the primary. The article centers on Orangeburg, home of S.C. State University and Claflin University.

An article in The Register points out a study that shows flaws in security for internet absentee voting by military personnel overseas. It mentions that the S.C. primary is the first scheduled test of the system.

S.C. blogger Mike discusses the Hollings endorsement, a possible Clyburn one and other S.C. primary possibilities.

Hollings throws support to Kerry for state primary:

“I’ve been elected seven times to the Senate by South Carolinians, and I owe it to them to tell them what I think. I believe John Kerry has the experience, judgment and character to lead this nation. In fact, I tried to get John Kerry to run four years ago. You can’t agree 100 percent with anybody, but I know John Kerry is the right man.”

Hollings made the announcement at a downtown Columbia hotel while Kerry was campaigning in New Hampshire, where primary voters go to the polls on Tuesday.

“John Kerry’s record of fighting for working families, his commitment to fiscal discipline, his plan to restore manufacturing jobs, and his commitment to expand health care and make it more affordable,” were among his reasons, Hollings said….

…”For goodness’ sake, let’s get on down here,” Hollings urged when Kerry joined a conference call.

Kerry promised he would return to South Carolina “with a head of steam and talk common sense to the people down there about jobs lost and the jobs that are needed.”…

…”We’re rolling,” he told Hollings. “I needed to take the time to break through, and we broke through in Iowa. Your endorsement not only has enormous impact on South Carolina, but here (in New Hampshire), because it sends a message nationally about the viability and message of my campaign.”…

…The endorsement from Hollings is a major plus for Kerry, said Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political scientist.

“An endorsement from Fritz Hollings goes a long way,” he said “You have (Hollings’) name recognition, someone who has appealed to voters across the political spectrum, and it’s a mainstream attraction, because Fritz Hollings is certainly not from the so-called liberal wing of the Democratic Party.”

Phil Noble of Charleston, chairman of the state chapter of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, said Hollings’ support would benefit anyone, but issued a cautionary note on the strength of brand-name endorsements.

“Times are changing, and endorsements generally get you more headlines than votes,” he said. “If Iowa tells us anything, it’s that people nowadays make up their own mind and endorsements mean less and less.”

Noble cited the endorsement of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by Sen. Tom Harkin, a dominant figure in Iowa politics, “and it obviously didn’t do much good.” Dean finished third, losing a wide lead in the final week….

…Edwards released a fresh batch of endorsements, including some former supporters of U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, who dropped out of the race after a fourth-place Iowa finish. Among them were Mayor Christopher Campbell of Eastover, president of the South Carolina Conference of Black Mayors, and state Rep. Leon Howard of Columbia. Others included elected Democrats from Lowcountry municipalities and counties…

…Speaking of Edwards, a first-term senator, Hollings said, “I know he was born here (in South Carolina) and he and I are good trial lawyers together, but he doesn’t have nearly the experience to go all the way and really take that White House.” Hollings said Edwards lacks Kerry’s “hard experience.”

Hollings was to fly to New Hampshire after the announcement and begin campaigning there with Kerry today….

…Winthrop’s Huffmon said, “Fritz Hollings has a long and storied career, but as far as gravitas in the Democratic primary, I still think the golden endorsement was Jim Clyburn’s.”

Hollings, who is retiring in January after 38 years in Washington, said he doesn’t have a political organization like Clyburn, “but the voters who elected me seven times to the Senate are all around, (and) I hope that those who haven’t made up their mind will stop, look and listen, because this is serious business.”

Hollings’ backing big boost for Kerry

“Massachusetts liberal? I say bah, humbug,” Hollings said in a hastily called news conference Thursday in Columbia, where he flew to make his announcement.

“The only fella I know that really has the courage and the experience in every regard who can really take President Bush on is John Kerry of Massachusetts,” Hollings said, noting the race is about who can win in November.

“We’ve got a fella who’s fiscally responsible, who’s experienced, who’s good in foreign policy,” he added….

University of South Carolina political scientist Brad Gomez said Hollings’ endorsement at this late hour probably will carry a lot of weight with undecided Democrats since many voters only now are starting to pay attention.

“The fact that Kerry is now getting a great deal of free media during a period when South Carolina voters are just now starting to consider who they might vote for means an endorsement of this caliber could be very useful,” Gomez said.

Hollings’ endorsement also shows Kerry is serious about expanding his campaign beyond his home New England base, Gomez said, by fighting for South Carolina, where Edwards has historically been the favorite….

…This isn’t the first time Hollings has supported a Massachusetts politician for president. He was also an early backer of John Kennedy.

Dearest Colleague:

Rep. Jim Clyburn sat in his Capitol Hill apartment Monday night drinking Jack Daniel’s and Diet Coke and eating pork rinds. He was watching the results come in from Iowa on CNN, and they were not good.

Dick Gephardt, the candidate Clyburn had endorsed for president, was finishing a distant fourth. Iowa voters had effectively ended Gephardt’s campaign. And started Clyburn’s cell phone ringing.

John Edwards or John Kerry called first, he can’t remember which. Wesley Clark called as Clyburn drove to an interview with Charlie Rose. In the next 36 hours, Clyburn would hear from every Democratic presidential candidate — some repeatedly — except for long-shot Dennis Kucinich….

Clyburn says he received 60 to 100 endorsement-related calls between Monday night and Wednesday afternoon.

“And maybe one or two calls about the State of the Union,” says Lindy Birch, his communications director.

Clyburn says he won’t make a decision on an endorsement before next week’s New Hampshire primary.

Meantime, Clyburn keeps talking about how much he likes Gephardt. He likes him for reasons that are both professional and personal. Without Gephardt, Clyburn says, he wouldn’t have gotten his seat on the House Appropriations Committee….

…But that didn’t stop the other candidates from calling. Sen. Joe Lieberman called Clyburn and said, “If things don’t go well for Gephardt, I want to be your second choice.” Kerry called a day later and said essentially the same thing. So did Howard Dean and Clark and Edwards, who laid it on rather thick.

“I just want you to know,” Edwards told Clyburn, according to Clyburn, “that your endorsement of Dick Gephardt underscores everything I ever heard about you.”

“Oh yeah, what’s that?” Clyburn said.

“That you’re intensely loyal to your friends,” Edwards said. “I understand that. But if things don’t go well, I want your consideration.”

Since Christmas, Edwards has called “about 13, 14 times,” Clyburn says. Once, while Clyburn sat next to Gephardt on his campaign bus, he felt his phone vibrating. It was Edwards calling to whisper sweet nothings in Clyburn’s ear even as his main presidential squeeze sat a few feet away, oblivious.

Clyburn is arguably more important to Edwards than to the other candidates because South Carolina is more important to Edwards. Edwards, who was born in South Carolina and who represents North Carolina in the U.S. Senate, is banking heavily on a strong showing in the South. He needs South Carolina. He needs Jim Clyburn.

Last spring, before a debate in Columbia, Edwards made the mistake of leaving Clyburn’s annual fish fry before the other candidates. That irked some members of Clyburn’s staff, and Edwards called the next morning to apologize.

When Dean offended many Southerners by saying he wanted to be the candidate “for guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks,” he promptly called Clyburn to explain himself. Kerry calls to update Clyburn on the latest tracking polls and endorsements. Al Sharpton told Clyburn early on that he wouldn’t ask for his endorsement because he didn’t want to get between him and Gephardt. But he’s been in touch lately.

Clark called Wednesday, and Kerry, and Dean. “I think Dean called today,” Clyburn says. Or was it yesterday? “These days are running together.”

Edwards just called again, too. From Greenville, S.C., where he was headed to the airport to catch a flight to New Hampshire. “I wish I didn’t have to go up to New Hampshire,” Clyburn recalls Edwards saying. Clyburn empathized, mentioned something about the cold and the snow….

If Edwards ever goes five days without calling — unimaginable as that is — Clyburn says he won’t hold it against him.

Clyburn is still a little depressed about Gephardt’s loss. Gephardt called Clyburn the morning after Iowa to thank him for everything. “It was a little bit emotional,” Clyburn says of the call. “You want to see your friend do well.”

Lucky for Clyburn, he has so many good friends calling to console him. To assure him that, indeed, Dick Gephardt is a good man, a decent man, and he’ll be missed.

And, oh, about that endorsement . . .

Remaining Schedule:
1/27: Wesley Clark
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday’s Primary News

S.C. Primary News 1/21

[Cross-posted from Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
8:30 a.m.: John Edwards, Greenville, Meadors Sandwich Co., Downtown
11 a.m.: Hadassah Lieberman, College of Charleston, American Government Class, 316 Maybank Bldg.
2:45 p.m.: Hadassah Lieberman, Beaufort, Beaufort-Jasper Economic Opportunity Commission Head Start Center
7 p.m.: Voter Information Forum, College of Charleston Democrats, Physicians Auditorium
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
Edwards’ profile rises for state primary from today’s Greenville News (excerpts below.)

More on attempts to woo Gephardt supporters and news that Rep. Jim Clyburn might decide on a new endorsement as early as today from the Charleston Post & Courier (excerpts below.)

The State reports that Congressman Jim Clyburn will hold a conference call with reporters today to discuss his plans (excerpts below.)

Kerry playing catch-up in S.C. from The State (excerpts below.)

Today in S.C. Politics from the Post & Courier.

The Iowa Democratic Party is loaning staff and equipment to South Carolina Democrats to aid in tallying vote totals.

Caucus Crazies By Larry Donaldson

Democratic campaigns responded to controversial remarks made Monday at a MLK prayer service.

Kevin McGeehee links to an article from the Atlanta-Journal Constitution on Edwards vs. Kerry in S.C.

Edwards’ profile rises for state primary:

Edwards, 50, a freshman senator and native of Seneca who has emphasized his South Carolina roots, may now be the emerging favorite in this state’s first-in-the-South primary on Feb. 3, analysts said following his strong showing Monday in Iowa behind Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry….

…State Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin said Iowa’s results confirmed “a wide-open, competitive national race. The road to victory leads straight through South Carolina and South Carolina Democrats are ready for a great fight.” …

…John Simpkins, a Furman University political scientist, said he doubts Gephardt’s departure will make a difference for any one candidate because “he had low poll numbers and no strong organizational presence here.”

But, he said that Edwards could be “poised to pick up voters who might have been attracted to Rep. Gephardt’s working class background and his up-by-the-bootstraps personal story.”…

…”I was hoping he’d do good, but I had my doubts a couple of weeks ago,” said an Upstate Edwards booster, Sen. Glenn Reese of Spartanburg. “After (Monday), I think we’re on track.”…

…To University of Virginia presidential scholar Larry Sabato, “Finally, the best campaigner of the post-Clinton Democratic generation has drawn the spotlight so that he can demonstrate his considerable skills.” Sabato posted the comment Tuesday on his political Web site….

…Now, he will compete in South Carolina as the favorite, Sabato said….

…He will return to Columbia on Friday and come back to South Carolina early next week either just before or after New Hampshire where he has lagged far behind Dean, Clark, and the now surging Kerry.

Alex Mumford, Greenville County’s Democratic Party chairman, said Iowa “definitely” gives Edwards credibility in South Carolina that his modest poll ratings had previously denied him.

Kerry, an austere New Englander and Vietnam War veteran, is more of an enigma in South Carolina….

…Dean’s three dozen South Carolina staff members huddled in Saluda Shoals much of the day.

Stacie Paxton, Dean’s South Carolina spokeswoman, said Iowa changed nothing for the campaign.

“We came into South Carolina to win and we’re still playing it that way,” she said. “Now that Iowa’s over, we’re expecting an onslaught of national press and a whole lot of volunteers to start heading this way.”…

…The top prize from Gephardt’s departure wasn’t tipping his hand.

Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia will discuss the primary in a conference call this afternoon with reporters, but won’t necessarily endorse another candidate, said Hope Derrick, his spokeswoman. Clyburn’s top aide, Ike Williams, had managed Gephardt’s state campaign.

Edwards telephoned Clyburn on Monday night, said Jenni Engebretsen, Edwards’ South Carolina spokeswoman. She would not comment on the nature of the conversation. Clyburn, the state’s highest elected black official, had worked at home and across the country for Gephardt and said previously he would not make another endorsement. But that’s standard procedure for a candidate’s top allies because such an admission would suggest a lack of confidence….

…Engebretsen said the campaign is making a concerted effort to win over former Gephardt supporters and “we’ve been getting a lot of calls from them.”

Among the first aboard was state Rep. Leon Howard, D-Columbia, she said.

Mumford said that before lunch on Tuesday, he had several calls from Gephardt supporters who told him they were moving to Clark. “I really think he made a hit (Monday) at Southside High School” with fiery criticism of the Bush administration.

“He speaks the language our folks want to hear,” Mumford said.

He said conversations with Greenville Democrats have followed a trend: “They don’t think Dean will do very well down here, and I think that’s probably reasonably accurate. You can apply the same to Edwards. You wouldn’t expect him to do as well in New England.”…

Political camps woo Gephardt’s staff, resources, votes in S.C.:

It took just a few hours after the Iowa caucuses for the surviving Democrats to start picking at the political carcass of Dick Gephardt in South Carolina.
Starting as early as 1 a.m. Tuesday, cell phones were abuzz as the remaining contenders tried to woo Gephardt’s South Carolina staff and volunteers for the state’s now potentially decisive Feb. 3 primary.

The camps of Wesley Clark, Howard Dean and John Edwards all contacted Gephardt’s Columbia headquarters looking to poach workers, telephone numbers and turnout lists.

“They want to hear you say ‘Here it is, come and get it,’ ” said Ike Williams, who ran the Gephardt campaign in South Carolina.

Still, the biggest prize wasn’t talking Tuesday. U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s office said he would have no comment about his role in the primary until today….

…Representatives of the Edwards camp, however, seemed buoyed by Clyburn’s remarks late Monday that the North Carolina senator was best-positioned to get former Gephardt backers since the two men have similar resumes.

“Everyone would like to have Clyburn’s endorsement,” Edwards’ press spokeswoman Jenni Engebretsen said Tuesday.

Other prominent Gephardt supporters were bombarded throughout the day Tuesday as word quickly spread that his national campaign was ending and his South Carolina network was breaking up.

James Sanderson, union leader at the Georgetown Steel mill, said he was called by an Edwards supporter at 8:30 Tuesday morning asking for him to appear with Edwards at a rally in Georgetown before the vote.

The United Steel Workers of America had endorsed Gephardt, and the votes of Sanderson and several hundred other unemployed steel workers from Georgetown were expected to be a significant prize on the coast….

…Other representatives of South Carolina labor said Gephardt’s exit frees them up to become more active in other campaigns. Among them is International Longshoremen’s Association union chief Ken Riley of Charleston, who said he plans to expand his support for U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the winner in Iowa.

The ILA national office endorsed Gephardt last year, but Riley had separately committed to Kerry. “Now it means I don’t have the decision haunting me that the national made,” Riley said….

…What remains uncertain about the Democrats’ selection process is how South Carolina’s black vote will be swayed by both the Iowa results and Gephardt’s quick withdrawal. College of Charleston political scientist Jamie McKown said the black vote probably will divide itself after Gephardt’s exit but that many will still be looking to Clyburn, the state’s leading black political figure.

” ‘Is he going to throw his weight in any direction?’ is a question I think everyone wants answered,” McKown said, adding that clues come through subtle quotes from Clyburn about a candidate or by his appearance at certain rallies.

Clyburn not ready for new commitment

As the most powerful black politician in an important primary state where up to half of Democratic voters are black, Clyburn’s endorsement is worth courting. He is known among South Carolina Democrats as “the kingmaker.”

But in the immediate aftermath of Iowa, the congressman has kept quiet about his plans, and sources close to his campaign say he may not endorse anyone until the party has chosen a nominee.

“His campaign is over, but the Democratic principles and priorities that Dick Gephardt fought for so passionately are still going strong,” Clyburn said. “Democrats have a strong slate of candidates, and I am confident that our nominee will lead a formidable challenge to the president this November.”

Today, he plans a conference call with reporters to talk about his plans.

Kerry playing catch-up in S.C.

“Organizations are probably the most important thing,” said former U.S. Rep. Butler Derrick, D-S.C. “The Democratic primary is about getting out the vote and that’s what organizations do. The best contact is one-on-one, candidate to voter.

“But if you can’t get that, it has to be the candidates’ representatives and the voter.”

But organization is just what Kerry lacks in South Carolina, a state whose first-in-the-South Democratic primary could clinch the race for the presidential nomination. Kerry, who weakened his South Carolina campaign to strengthen his forces in Iowa, already has begun rebuilding here.

The two staff members the Kerry campaign sent to the caucuses are already on their way back, and the campaign is signing up as many volunteers as they can to supplement the 321 South Carolinians already fanning out across the state for the Massachusetts senator….

…The Dean campaign, for example, counts 50 paid staff in South Carolina. The Edwards camp opened four South Carolina offices. And Clark’s organization boasts 2,000 volunteers here.

Joe Lieberman, slipping in the polls and low on funds, is hoping his relatively strong South Carolina organization will deliver him a respectable showing on Feb. 3….

…The Kerry campaign says it will catch up to its rivals. Until then, Kerry spokesman David DiMartino is emphasizing the campaign’s spirit and smarts.

“It’s lean and mean,” said DiMartino. “We knew what we had to do to do well in Iowa to do that. We know what we have to do to do well in South Carolina and we will do that. We will be aggressive on the air and on the ground.”…

…”Those organizations got trumped this week by Kerry’s willingness to spend a great deal of money on media buys,” said Gomez.

In other words, Kerry plastered his face on television screens across the Iowa plains, and it worked.

In South Carolina too, Gomez said, “broadcast politics is required.”

Remaining Schedule:
1/23: 2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/27: Wesley Clark
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday’s Primary News

S.C. Primary News 1/20

[Originally posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday's Primary News

Today's Schedule:
3 p.m. Dick Gephardt, Charleston, ILA Union Hall, 1142 Morrison Drive
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
NRO features a column by Michael Graham on John Edwards.

S.C. Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin released a statement on the impact of the Iowa caucus results on the S.C. Primary.

Gephardt has cancelled a trip to Charleston today and will remain in Missouri to withdraw from the race.

Mike discusses the Iowa results and the possibility of a Kerry-Edwards ticket.

Wyeth Ruthven discusses Gephardt's showing in Iowa and wonders whether Congressman Jim Clyburn will make another endorsement when Gephardt drops out. Ruthven also disccuses some minor points over some endorsement claims by Kerry and Edwards yesterday.

The State picks up the ball from Ruthven regarding Gephardt supporters and runs with it today (excerpts below.)

More on Iowa from the Charleston Post & Courier (excerpts below.)

An article in The State discusses the Iowa results and what they could mean for S.C. (excerpts below.)

Sharpton and Clark both spoke against the Confederate Flag at King Day events (excerpts below.)

Al Sharpton and Wesley Clark participated in ceremonies for MLK Day including the march and rally in Columbia. Clark also participated in a discussion at Southside High School in Greenville (excerpts below.)

Update: A Knight-Ridder article chronicles Clark's day in South Carolina yesterday (excerpts below.)

S.C. blogger Jason Trommetter also has Iowa reactions.

The State on Gephardt supporters:

The exit of U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt from the presidential race means the surviving candidates are jockeying to pick up his former supporters.

Just Monday night, S.C. Rep. Leon Howard, D-Richland, switched from Gephardt to Sen. John Edwards. Herbert Fielding of Charleston, a former state senator, switched from Gephardt to Sen. John Kerry.

Of course, the biggest prize is U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, whom all of the candidates had wooed, but who ultimately went with Gephardt....

...Clyburn once listed Gephardt, Edwards and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as possessing the characteristics he would seek in a nominee. The congressman could not be reached for comment Monday night.

Edwards also has the endorsement of Clyburn's first cousin, S.C. Rep. Bill Clyburn, D-Aiken.

Iowa reactions from the Post & Courier:

John Kerry's convincing win in the Iowa caucuses breathes new life into his South Carolina campaign after he had all but disappeared from contention.

Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, has not been in the state since September, but his supporters said Monday they're ready to unleash a Southern front for a candidate who arguably is the new Democratic front-runner.

"What this does is give us an enormous bump," said Kerry's Lowcountry organizer, Diane Aghapour of Charleston. "Iowans recognized that John Kerry is the candidate who would be able to beat President Bush."...

...Iowa has shown that "anything can happen," said Wofford University political scientist Robert Jeffrey. "In just a week somebody new can jump out of the pack. I think we have to wait and see before we start to predict or handicap South Carolina."

Although Kerry has no plans to visit South Carolina before the New Hampshire primary next week, he is expected to begin his South Carolina advertising campaign this week.

"We look at South Carolina as an opportunity, and we expect to be competitive," said Kerry's Washington, D.C.-based press secretary David DiMartino, who downplayed Kerry's lack of stump appearances here....

...Edwards is set to spend most of the week in New Hampshire but will be back in South Carolina on Friday, stumping in Columbia, his campaign said.

U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., who had endorsed Dick Gephardt, said he was sorry to see his close friend from Congress end his bid for the Democratic nomination and predicted it probably would help Edwards the most.

"I think it bodes well for Edwards," he said. "They both had the same kind of resume."

Clyburn's endorsement of Gephardt had been seen as key in South Carolina, particularly in helping to sway the state's black voters. Clyburn said he didn't know if he would make another endorsement before the S.C. primary....

...Lowcountry Edwards organizer and Charleston County Councilman Leon Stavrinakis said the candidate's second-place finish in the Midwest was "enormous," since Edwards went from single-digit support to second place in a matter of days.

Iowa Reaction from The State:

Can Kerry still win in South Carolina?

Yes, said Samuel Tenenbaum of Columbia, one of Kerry’s staunchest supporters.

"The right stuff is there,' Tenenbaum said Monday night from Mac's on Main, where about 30 Kerry supporters were celebrating.

Tenenbaum said Kerry now has plenty of the ever-crucial momentum. "'Big Mo' is happening right now,"he said.

Kerry's momentum, however, might not penetrate the South Carolina border, said Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon.

"He's just not going to have time to build a network in South Carolina that can overcome image problems," Huffmon said. The problems are based on regional biases that are inherently unfair, he said, but that doesn’t make them any less true.

"We're as bad as Northerners," Huffmon said. "They paint us with horrible brush strokes. We do the same. Kerry suffers from that wealthy Northeastern Boston Brahmin image. You would need an incredibly strong, active network to overcome that."

The most important issue for John Kerry now is not South Carolina, but New Hampshire, said former Democratic National Committee chairman Don Fowler of Columbia....

...As for Edwards, Fowler said, Monday night's results certainly count as a victory for the North Carolina senator.

'From the beginning, almost no one considered Senator Edwards serious except a few people in the South," Fowler said. "He proved himself in Iowa. They (Kerry and Edwards) are very much in play."

Huffmon agreed.

"People are starting to take a lot of more notice of Edwards," he said. "Edwards is really honing his message, and refining it. It was one that always found an audience here."...

..."The product of Howard Dean never really sold well in Iowa," Huffmon said. "I don’t think he was hoping to knock a home run in Iowa. He was betting more on New Hampshire."

Sharpton and Clark speak against the Confederate Flag:

Clark, a retired Army general who sat out Monday's Iowa caucuses to focus on later primaries, said the Confederate flag is "hate-filled" and should be put in a museum.

"It is a flag of the past," said Clark, who is from Arkansas. "This American flag is our flag, and it is a flag of the future."

Sharpton, who has protested the flag several times in South Carolina, called it a treasonous symbol for rebels who wanted to separate from the nation.

"We stand against foreign terrorism," Sharpton said. "We should not reminisce fondly about domestic terrorism."

Other campaigns sent supporters to the rally. They mingled with people opposing the flag, supporting reparations for former slaves and advertising a host of issues from education to unions.

Former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois — who last week dropped out of the race and now supports former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean — attended the pre-rally church service at Zion Baptist with Clark.

Dean's brother Jim also attended the services and marched to the State House....

...[Clark] and Sharpton criticized President Bush for invoking executive authority and, on Friday, appointing conservative Judge Charles Pickering to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans despite objections from Democrats.

Critics say Pickering has opposed voting rights for blacks and is too right-wing. Pickering's supporters say the judge has defended blacks against discrimination.

Sharpton and Clark participate in King Day activities:

Clark listed what he said was a string of civil rights problems in the nation and in South Carolina.

"We have not yet overcome when black Americans are twice as likely to be put out of a job; when black Americans are twice as likely to live in poverty and when they are a third less likely to have health care..."

"When our president has the audacity to visit the grave of Dr. King on one day and then dishonor his memory the next by appointing an anti-civil rights, anti-voting rights, anti-justice, anti-American judge, then we have not overcome.

"And when a political party in this United States of America can suppress the vote and steal a presidential election, when a man can sit in the White House in Washington, D.C. and the only vote he won took place in the U.S. Supreme Court, then my friends, we have not overcome."

At Greenville's Southside High, Clark was greeted by a crowd of 150, mostly middle-aged and older, that waited out his 50-minute late arrival....

...Former Gov. Jim Hodges traveled with Clark and later said the former general is rapidly making the transition to candidate, "going from a guy feeling his way to a guy who's really good."

Sixteen supporters, some local, from other states, sat in a double row of plastic orange chairs on a platform behind Clark. Among them were, U.S. Reps. Marion Berry of Arkansas and William Jefferson of Louisiana and former Clinton administration Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater, also of Arkansas, Clark's adopted home state. Clark campaign placards framed a blue cloth backdrop.

Clark immediately went on the attack against Bush.

"I don't think it's patriotic for the president of the United States dress up in a flight suit and prance around the deck of an aircraft carrier," he said, referring to Bush's flight to proclaim the end of the war in Iraq last April.

Clark said that even before the 9/11 terror attack, "we had a president who wasn't minding the store. He did not do everything he could to keep us safe from the terrorist threat of Osama bin Laden. The truth is going to come out, I'm going to bring it out and we're going to hold George Bush accountable for not having done everything he could have done."

His voice rising as the crowd stood, whooping, cheering and applauding, Clark shouted, "He didn't do it, he didn't do it, he didn't do it and he knew it." ...

...During his remarks in Columbia, Clark called for the Confederate flag flying near the Confederate Soldiers' Monument to be taken down, saying "it doesn't belong on public grounds."

In an interview in Greenville, the Chicago-born Clark who grew up in Little Rock, said that while displaying the flag in the days of his youth was commonplace, "what a lot of white people didn't understand, or maybe they did (but) I didn't, what an object of hate it was and how it affected other people.

"It's time to take the Confederate flag and put it in a museum. I don't think it ought to be flying. Why fly a flag that brings back hurtful memories of slavery, lynching. It doesn't belong in modern-day America," Clark said.

During the King rally, Clark talked to reporters inside the partially enclosed African American History Monument prior to his speech, just as Sharpton took the stage. Clark said it was a coincidence and not an attempt to draw the media away from Sharpton's speech. While Sharpton thundered at the crowd, his voice sometimes threatening to drown out Clark's, Clark said he was in South Carolina "to honor Martin Luther King and I want to help the people of South Carolina pull together."

Clark campaigns in South Carolina:

While his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination fought it out Monday on Iowa's frozen turf, retired Gen. Wesley Clark spent the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday campaigning in South Carolina, where blacks will make up perhaps 50 percent of voters in a key primary Feb. 3.

Clark has spent more time in South Carolina than any of the other six states that have primaries Feb. 3, and Monday was the 10th day he's campaigned here. Thirty-second television ads for him have been airing since Dec. 2, and the Clark campaign has five state offices, 40 paid staffers and a dozen full-time volunteers....

..."Wes Clark fits like a nice little shoe with Southern voters," said Jim Hodges, the state's former governor. "The South holds a critical part of the success of the Democratic Party. Clark is a native son of the South: He speaks the language of the South and understands the voters here."

Clark began the day Monday at a raucous prayer service at Zion Baptist Church, where he smiled, sang and clapped along with gospel music....

...Clark then marched to a rally sponsored by the NAACP at the state Capitol, where the Confederate still flag flies on the grounds, to enormous controversy. Clark almost encountered another of his long-shot rivals there - the flamboyant Rev. Al Sharpton, who spoke at the rally - but Clark's aides hastily arranged a 10-minute news conference that began as Sharpton started speaking.

Then, in a passionate speech to honor King's legacy, Clark blasted President Bush's recent appointment of Charles Pickering of Mississippi to a federal appellate bench and pledged to secure voting rights for all Americans....

...Clark was almost giddy in his closing remarks before 800 or so people on the statehouse grounds.

"Dr. King, Dr. Martin Luther King, happy birthday to you, sir!," said Clark. "We honor you, and we honor your memory, and we are going to complete your work! Happy Birthday, Dr. King! Thank you!"

Clark then flew on a plush chartered jet to Southside High School in Greenville, S.C., for a "Conversation With Clark," his signature town-hall style event. By then, his voice was hoarse.

Last Thursday, Clark flew to South Carolina for just one event: A discussion of school funding and equity. His pledge to raise the minimum wage to $7 an hour by 2007 led the students at Dillon High School to cheer....

..."A lot depends on what happens up the road in Iowa and New Hampshire," said Neal Thigpen, the chair of the political science department at Francis Marion University in Florence. "But I haven't seen much from the Clark people in the way of a ground operation. Edwards and Dean have a pretty decent organization in the state. My sense is that the vote here is pretty loose. There's a huge percentage of voters who are undecided."

Remaining Schedule:
1/23: 2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/27: Wesley Clark
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday's Primary News

Last Minute Decisions All Around

MSNBC is reporting that entrance polls indicate that 40% of caucus goers made their decision in the last week.

Also only 26% of those ages 17-29 went for Dean.

These are soft numbers to say the least.

The Democratic Candidates - Up Close

Via Primary Frontline Penpals:

* * *

What about the candidates? Here are my brief and admittedly subjective assessments of the six candidates I've seen in person, in the order in which I saw them.

Wes Clark: He appears accessible, intelligent, articulate, and humble. His stump speech is clear and engaging. Much of his presentation (as I have noted here before) is narrative. He tells stories that aim to reveal who he is and what his motives are. In this sense, the candidate in person is a lot like the candidate in the ads. Clark, I think, is less comfortable answering specific issue-related questions, especially if it is a question he has not prepared for. In general, Clark has employed a good strategy. With so much similarity between the candidates on the issues, the difference will be made when voters judge the character of the candidate. Voters want to vote for someone they like, and cannot like a person they do not know. Clark gives them that chance.

John Kerry: He is an impressive figure in person. I've seen him described as "Lincolnesque," and the comparison is not inappropriate. Kerry lacks Lincoln's eloquence, however. Nor does he quite have the charisma of the earlier "JFK" with whom, I think, many of his supporters would like to compare him. His stump speech dealt with a range of specific issues, and was heavy on criticism of George Bush, but was not knit together in a coherent package. He was good at taking and answering questions, and especially good with the children in the crowd, but perhaps less successful in conveying who he was and why he wanted to lead us as president. The night I saw him I thought he looked and sounded tired (but who wouldn't be after the schedule these guys keep). I've noticed that lately the Kerry TV ads stress more of his own story--especially the Vietnam experience, where before they were, like his appearances, more issue oriented.

Dick Gephardt: He is a polished and experienced politician, and one gets the impression that there is a lot more to the candidate than meets the eye. At the same time, the message is not especially sharp, nor inspiring. I would describe Gephardt as a man of experienced caution. Although clearly able to discuss policy in a sophisticated (or a simple) way (depending on what was needed), he was short on passion, and gave me the impression that he was mainly going through the motions. Or, it could be that despite his public persona, he is a genuinely shy person, perhaps a bit uncomfortable opening up to strangers or talking much about himself. I think we are unlikely to see any of the "gaffes" from him that other candidates occasionally make, but that is partly because, to me, his stump speech seemed the most slogan-oriented of the bunch. He deflected some of the questions he took, and seemed anxious to get on to the next campaign stop.

Howard Dean: He had the crowd and the media, but frankly is not a very good public speaker. Dean speaks too fast, often overruns his own words, corrects himself, and so sometimes gives the impression that he is merely sprinting through a well-worn presentation that may not interest him anymore. It is as if he considers it more important to say lots of stuff, and less important to say it well. More than any of the candidates, he hammered George Bush, to the point of conveying contempt (although Bush is ever-present in all the campaign messages). Dean is obviously very bright, and he gives the impression of having an active mind (one that outruns his tongue?). He gave thoughtful and direct answers to questions, some of which, I'm reasonably sure, he had not fielded before. His closing tag line "you have the power" still strikes me as a bit contrived.

Joe Lieberman. Awful speech. I attended what was billed by the campaign as a "major speech" at the Dover Elks Hall on the Clinton Legacy. It amounted to Joe's stump speech dressed up with a few references to Clinton. He really tried hard to convince us that he deserved the Clinton mantle, several times referring to Clinton's "last dog dies" speech at the same venue. But from my view never succeeded, and came off as straining and desperate. Shockingly, this late into the campaign, the candidate was still relying mainly on notes to address his audience. The response, even from his dedicated supporters, was lukewarm in comparison to that for other candidates. Lieberman took no questions, and made but a perfunctory effort to meet and greet voters. Maybe I saw him on a bad day, but if this was typical, he would be better sticking to ads, which give an impression of a more lively, thoughtful candidate than the one I saw in person.

John Edwards. What a contrast with the Lieberman speech. Edwards was very sharp, full of enthusiasm and optimism, and gave perhaps the best stump speech of all the candidates. Edwards really seemed to have hit his stride and was right on the mark, whether talking about his background, or addressing issues of concern. He was engaging, listened sympathetically to questions, gave thoughtful answers, greeted voters warmly, and overall had a clear and coherent theme to his presentation that made the speech memorable--that is easy to remember and talk about later with other voters. Many of the Edwards ads employ themes that also appear in his presentation. But in general, this is the candidate who benefits most from personal contact with voters, and perhaps is at a disadvantage in trying to offer his views and character in short debate response or 30-second ad. In the case of John Edwards, the man is much bigger than the ads.

* * *

S.C. Primary News 1/19

[Originally posted at Backcountry Conservative.]

Yesterday's Primary News

Today's Schedule
8 a.m., Al Sharpton, Westside Cafe, 212 West Sumter St., Florence
9 a.m. Al Sharpton, Martin Luther King Day march at Westside Cafe
9:30 a.m., Wesley Clark, prayer service, Zion Baptist Church, 801 Washington St., Columbia
10 a.m., Wesley Clark, NAACP Rally, Statehouse, Columbia
10:50 a.m., Al Sharpton, NAACP Rally, Statehouse, Columbia
1:45 p.m., Wesley Clark, roundtable discussion, Southside High School, 100 Blassingame Road, Greenville
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
U.S. Congressman Marion Berry of Arkansas campaigned near military bases in the Midlands for Wesley Clark this weekend while Al Sharpton campaigned in Columbia.

An ad campaign against the President's immigration proposal is planned for South Carolina (excerpts below.)
Harvey Gantt stumped for John Edwards over the weekend (excerpts below.)

Joe Lieberman unveiled his plan for dealing with poverty yesterday in Columbia (excerpts below.)

Lieberman also campaigned Sunday in rural communities touting his anti-poverty plan (excerpts below.)

Photo of Lieberman campaigning in Greenwood at Workman's Restaurant. Another photo of Lieberman in Greenwood.

Lieberman's Greenwood stop was filmed for future campaign ads (excerpts below.)

Greenville County Democrats are looking for additional volunteers to work at precincts on February 3. South Carolina is one of two states that still requires parties to run their own presidential preference primaries.

An ad campaign against the President's immigration proposal:

Nonetheless, the issue carries potential for political influence. The Coalition for the American Worker (CFAW) scheduled an ad campaign to begin shortly before the pivotal South Carolina Democratic primary. Roy Beck, spokesman for CFAW, says its ad campaign in South Carolina will "break the conspiracy of silence that is destroying the middle class here and across the nation."

Harvey Gantt stumped for John Edwards:

“He’s the kind of person who will wake up every morning as president and think about the average working people,” said Gantt, who serves as a national chairman for Edwards’ presidential campaign.

Gantt, a former Charlotte mayor, was the first black student to attend Clemson University.

Joe Lieberman unveiled his plan for dealing with poverty yesterday in Columbia:

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Lieberman on Sunday visited the historic home of a leader of the South Carolina civil rights movement to unveil his anti-poverty plan.

The Connecticut senator said he would pick up where former President Clinton left off and cut the poverty rate to the lowest in history.

"When I am president, if you are working your heart out every day as millions of Americans are, you will not live in poverty," Lieberman said. "The ladder of opportunity will be there for you to climb. And the rungs on that ladder will be sturdy -- not slippery as they are today."

Lieberman's plan calls for expanding Individual Development Accounts, special savings accounts that match investments dollar for dollar on the condition that proceeds be used to buy a home, invest in a small business, or upgrade education. He said he wanted to increase the earned income tax credit and take the next steps of welfare reform by increasing child care funding and expanding aid for legal immigrants.

Lieberman also campaigned Sunday in rural communities touting his anti-poverty plan:

Anne Shuler stood outside the beige two-story American Legion Post 65 here Sunday waiting for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Lieberman.
On this day, the U.S. senator from Connecticut was making other stops in a rented motor home, in Columbia, Greenwood and Aiken to announce a plan he says will, in four years, cut the poverty rate by 33 percent and add 10 million new jobs.

Relief — from anyone — can't come too soon for Saluda.

Shuler, a retiree, and many of the 35 people sitting inside on folding chairs wanted to hear some hopeful words about jobs, the emerging salient issue of the primary campaign.

"The economy here is worse than bad," she said of this isolated county seat where the downtown is pockmarked with empty storefronts.

Lieberman's Greenwood stop was filmed:

His visit to Greenwood was less formal than his Columbia presentation. He arrived shortly after lunch to speak with diners at Workman’s Restaurant, lingering for an hour before heading on to his next campaign stop.
“I was told you can’t run for president without coming to Greenwood,” Lieberman told the crowd, many of whom were surprised by the visit from a presidential candidate.
“This is our favorite eating place,” said Linda Carroll. Shortly before lunch, she and husband Marvin learned that the senator would be visiting.
“When we heard he was going to be here, we stayed around a little while longer so we could meet him,” she said.
Those who simply expected to meet the candidate got another surprise, as well. Lieberman’s staff filmed the Workman’s event for use in upcoming television campaign advertisements.
Because of its timing, South Carolina’s primary will give voters in the Palmetto State the opportunity to trim the numbers of Democratic hopefuls, Lieberman said.
“This is the first time in a long time — maybe the first time ever — you will be able to determine who will be the next president of the United States,” Lieberman told diners. “I can take this president on where he’s supposed to be strong, on security and values, where he hasn’t delivered for the American people.”
During his stop at the American Legion Post 65 in Saluda, Lieberman continued some of the themes he discussed in Greenwood, but also talked about other issues, such as the Medicaid program.
“Medicaid is a good program,” he told the people gathered at the American Legion.
“The program is being squeezed a bit. We have to turn that around. We are promising to help people on Medicaid,” he said.

Remaining Schedule:
1/20: 3 p.m. Dick Gephardt, Charleston, ILA Union Hall, 1142 Morrison Drive
1/23: 2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday's Primary News

S.C. Primary News, 1/18

[Originally posted at Backcountry Conservative.]

Yesterday's Primary News

Today's Schedule:
1 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Greenwood, to discuss poverty plan, Workman's Restaurant, 611 East Cambridge Ave.
1 p.m., Al Sharpton, Dalzell, High Hills AME Church, 6780 Meeting House Road
2 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Saluda, town hall meeting, American Legion Post No. 65, 108 S. Rudolph St.
3:30 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Aiken, town hall meeting, Newberry Hall, 117 Newberry St
[Full Schedule can be found at the bottom of this post.]

News:
Kerry rebuilding his image in South Carolina in today's Greenville News (excerpts below.)

Today's Charleston Post & Courier discusses efforts by Democrats to court McCain supporters from 2000 (excerpts below.)

Today's Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on potential crossover voting (excerpts below.)

Al Sharpton's role is discussed in today's Charlotte Observer (excerpts below.)

Dean discovers religion while on campaign trail (excerpts below.)

S.C. looms as decisive primary for Democrats (excerpts below.)

Kerry rebuilding his image in South Carolina in the Greenville News:

Charleston's Phil Noble, chairman of the state chapter of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, attributes the shift to the grim logic of resource allocation.

"Kerry's got to do well somewhere early. He thought it could have been here, but it didn't come together." ...

...Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, faulted Kerry for backing off South Carolina until the 11th hour.

"Clark made a mistake by skipping Iowa; Kerry made a mistake by pulling out of South Carolina. Maybe one of the lessons of this cycle is that you should stay in and fight everywhere you possibly can for as long as you can," Sabato said.

After lining up impressive support early, particularly Sam Tenenbaum, a retired industrialist and renowned fund-raiser and organizer, Kerry "then totally disappeared," Sabato said.

Brad Gomez of the University of South Carolina said Kerry had no choice but to go all out in New Hampshire.

"If he doesn't have a top three showing in New Hampshire, he might be out. It's a neighboring state where he's supposed to do well. If he can't meet expectations there, how does he sell himself elsewhere?

Gomez said until the Iowa surge, Kerry "had an incredibly hard time getting traction," and not just in South Carolina.

"Early on, people saw him as a leading contender. For a Massachusetts senator, you might have thought he had the ability to sell himself in South Carolina, with a solid civil rights record, strong military record. He should have had some strength here."...

Charleston Post & Courier on Courting of McCain Voters:

Representatives of several camps said last week they will be making appeals to McCain voters in the coming days, asking them to take part in the Feb. 3 Democratic primary if their anti-George Bush sentiments from 2000 remain high.

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark's campaign is one of them....

...State Rep. Jim Merrill, R-Daniel Island, ran McCain's South Carolina effort in 2000.

He said there may be some minimal dividends in chasing the old McCain crowd but doubted there were many around who are still angry enough to come out in a Democratic vote.

"People who vote in primaries are historically hard-core," he said, contending that the Democrats' Feb. 3 primary was set up for activists and party faithful who support the leftward leanings of the party platform.

Atlanta-Journal Constitution on potential crossover voting:

The Feb. 3 primary is "the only game in town," said John Zogby, president of the Zogby International polling firm. "Republicans and independents will vote."

South Carolina is one of 12 states, including Georgia, that allow members of the opposition party and independents to vote in partisan primaries and caucuses, he said.

A December survey taken by Zogby International found 65 percent of those likely to vote in South Carolina's primary were Democrats, 16 percent Republicans and 17 percent independents....

...In fact, the state Republican Party is urging its members to avoid the voting. "Go to work, make some money, but stay away from the Democratic primary," is the advice from Luke Byars, state GOP executive director.

Curtis Gans, director of the Washington-based Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said organized efforts of any significance to embarrass an opposition party through crossover votes are rare.

Still, there's some history of crossover voting in South Carolina. In the hard-fought 2000 Republican primary battle between George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, 9 percent of the voters were Democrats and 30 percent were independents. The crossover votes went heavily for McCain, but Bush won.

Charlotte Observer on Al Sharpton's role:

Political observers say Sharpton's objective isn't to be elected president, but rather to assume the role that Jesse Jackson played in the 1984 and 1988 elections.

"He wants to call the shots when it comes to the black community," said University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, who studies presidential politics. "He wants a seat at the table; he wants to have some resources given to him."

For Sharpton to have the broker's role he covets, Sabato said, "He has to do well in South Carolina; he's counting on it."

The State on Dean's Religion:

“I'm still learning a lot about faith and the South and how important it is,” he told reporters en route to a campaign stop in South Carolina. He made it clear he would mention God more in the coming weeks.

Sure enough, he did.

Dean seemed uncomfortable talking about his faith. He told an Iowa audience that he prays daily.

He named Job as his favorite New Testament book. Oops. Job’s in the Old Testament.

"I'm a New Englander, so I'm not used to wearing religion on my sleeve and being as open about it," Dean explained....

..."Dean sees the handwriting on the wall; if he doesn't get religious, he doesn't do well in the South," said Charles Dunn, a political science professor at Grove City College in Pennsylvania, an expert on the role of religious conservatives in party politics....

...Religion is important to South Carolinians of both political parties. Exit polls in 2000 showed that 45 percent of Republicans identified themselves as Christian conservatives. Another poll shows that a third of the likely Democratic primary voters attend church regularly....

..."I believe it is a general election move based upon the assumption that if he's going to win the election he can't appear to be so secular next to Bush," Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen said.

Clemson University professor Dave Woodard says Dean is not going to connect with evangelicals no matter how hard he tries. They are with Bush.

The State on South Carolina's role as a decisive primary:

"It would be hard to blow it out of proportion; South Carolina is absolutely critical," said Whit Ayres,a top Republican pollster working in Columbia last week.

"It's where the press is focusing its attention. It's where the candidates are focusing their attention. It's seen as significant because it's the first primary in the South and the first primary with significant African-American participation."...

...This is South Carolina's moment, said Clemson University political science professor Bruce Ransom, who noted the state won’t likely help Democrats in November.

The last time the state went Democratic in a presidential election was 1976, with Jimmy Carter.

But S.C. Democrats wield power in the primaries.

For the eventual nominee, Ransom said, "South Carolina could seal it."...

..."I originally had questions as to whether South Carolina was actually going to be a milestone event," said Bill Carrick, an Aiken native who is a senior strategist for Gephardt.

"Now, it looks like Iowa and New Hampshire are going to turn out to be inconclusive and you will have multiple candidates come to South Carolina for a major showdown."

But will that showdown whittle the field to one man? When it's all over, will South Carolina Democrats rightfully claim to have chosen the Democratic nominee?

"That’s potentially true," said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina. "On the Republican side, it has been true. For both Bushes (the former and current president) ... South Carolina has been the clincher."

Remaining Schedule:
1/19: Al Sharpton
1/19: Wes Clark, Columbia
1/20: 3 p.m. Dick Gephardt, Charleston, ILA Union Hall, 1142 Morrison Drive
1/23: 2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday's Primary News

The Delegate Breakdown

Here is an excellent graphic from the Chicago Tribune breaking down the delegate selection process. (right click to download)

South Carolina Primary News 1/17

[This post originally appeared at Backcountry Conservative ]
Schedules:
1/18: 8 a.m., Joe Lieberman, West Columbia at 8 a.m., Brookland Baptist Church, 1066 Sunset Blvd.
1/18: 10:30 a.m., Joe Lieberman, Columbia, releases poverty plan and kicks off "Joe's Rural Ride" at Hannah House, 1726 Sumter St.
1/18: 1 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Greenwood, to discuss poverty plan, Workman's Restaurant, 611 East Cambridge Ave.
1/18: 1 p.m., Al Sharpton, Dalzell, High Hills AME Church, 6780 Meeting House Road
1/18: 2 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Saluda, town hall meeting, American Legion Post No. 65, 108 S. Rudolph St.
1/18: 3:30 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Aiken, town hall meeting, Newberry Hall, 117 Newberry St.
1/19: Al Sharpton
1/19: Wes Clark, Columbia
1/20: Dick Gephardt
1/23: Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, 2:30 p.m., Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, noon, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian's, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

News

Dubious Polling in S.C. Primary?

Wes Clark spoke out against the Confederate flag Friday (excerpts below.)

Lee Bandy writes the latest story about potential crossover voting (excerpts below.)

Michael Graham responds to the Bandy story on crossover voting.

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Clark on the Confederate Flag

Wesley Clark said Friday the Confederate flag should not fly from the State House grounds.

"I don't believe we ought to be standing on keeping that flag out there on state grounds like that," he told South Carolina reporters in a conference call. "The flag that ought to be flying around this country is the American flag."

Bandy on Croosover Voting

It's an idea that comes around about every four years, when a contested primary heats up. So, too, does the talk of "crossover voting" — Republicans voting in a Democratic primary, or vice versa.

And while it generates a lot of discussion on both ends of the political spectrum, such voters rarely show up at the polls — much less have any impact on the outcomes.

"We always hear a lot of talk about it before an election, but it never materializes," said Robert Jeffrey, a Wofford College political scientist.

South Carolina's Democratic presidential primary — the first in the South — is Feb. 3. Any registered voter can participate....

...Last month, Zogby International surveyed 621 likely primary voters in South Carolina. Of those polled, 15 percent identified themselves as Republicans.

Both Republicans and Democrats tend to discount those numbers.

"I don't look for many crossovers," said Republican consultant Richard Quinn of Columbia, who has done polling in South Carolina for about 10 years. "A lot of times, voters will tell you they'll vote a certain way, but they don't."...

...State Republican chairman Katon Dawson said the party has no plans to crash the Democratic primary.

"I don't know of a Republican who would want to be seen within a country mile of the place," he said. "The Democratic candidates have been so embarrassing."

State Democratic chairman Joe Erwin said the party has heard reports of Republican crossovers.

"If they choose to do that, there's nothing we can do to stop them," he said. "They have their own integrity to live with. That's the bottom line."

Latest Iowa Numbers (1/17/04)

If this weren't a caucus the following poll would be really good for Kerry because he leads by more than the margin of error. However given the archaic form of delegate selection I would hardly venture making a prediction.

John Kerry 24 % (+2)
Howard Dean 19 % (-2)
Dick Gephardt 19 % (-2)
John Edwards 17 % (no change)
Wesley Clark 3 % (no change)
Dennis Kucinich 3 % (+1)
Joe Lieberman 1 % (no change)
Al Sharpton - % (no change)
Other/Undecided 13 % (+2)

Source: Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll. Three-day rolling sample. N=503 likely Democratic caucus voters statewide. MoE ± 4.5 (Courtesy of Pollingreport.com)

The Pre-Iowa Toast-O-Meter is Up

The Toast-o-Meter: A Weekly News Round-Up and Handicapping of the Race for the Democratic Nomination.

And this week: Slicing Up Iowa!

The Best Coverage on the Web

To indulge my pride at being a part of this site, I think that TCP's election coverage since the new year has outdone the major news outlets. Bravo comrades! (of course I'm probably a little biased )

Latest Iowa Numbers (1/15/03)

Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll (MoE ± 4.5):

Howard Dean 21 % (-3)
Dick Gephardt 21 % (no change)
John Kerry 22 % (+1)
John Edwards 17 % (+2)
Wesley Clark 3 % (no change)
Dennis Kucinich 3 % (+1)
Joe Lieberman 1 % (no change)
Carol Moseley Braun 1 % (no change)
Al Sharpton - % (no change)
Other/Undecided 11 % (-1)

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV MoE ± 4:

Howard Dean 22 %
Dick Gephardt 18 %
John Kerry 21 %
John Edwards 18 %
Wesley Clark 2 %
Dennis Kucinich 5 %
Joe Lieberman 1 %
Other/Undecided 13 %

Courtesy of PollingReport.com

Fresh Toast: the 1/9 Edition Has Been Posted

This week's round-up and handicapping of the Democratic race is up.

And thanks to Joe Maller for the help. Clearly there were some technical issue earlier.

Bush's Immigration Policy and the Dems' Response

CNN has decent coverage here and here.

Latest NH Poll Numbers

The latest polls in the Give Me Liberty State show Dean still leading the pack with 36% of the potential vote. He's followed by Clark with 16% and Kerry with 13%. What is interesting is that 17% are still undecided. Given a margin of error of 4%, it is still possible for Clark to pull off a victory, or at the very least a terrific showing. If Dean underperforms in Iowa, the numbers could be close enough for Kerry to make a pretty good showing in NH as well. Pundits who think this thing is all but officially decided are simply wrong.

Source: American Research Group tracking poll take 1/4 thru 1/6

Sorry, no link on this one. It's from the subscriber pages of PollingReport.com

New Toast for a New Year

The newest Toast-O-Meter is up, with its weekly news round-up and analysis of the Democratic field.

And now featuring the Vice-Loaf!

2004 Elections and the South

I have a column in today's Mobile Register on the role of the southern states in the '04 elections (the primaries, general election for President and congressional elections).

Access it here.

Report: Bush Leads Dean In Michigan

Though Michigan voters are skeptical of President Bush's handling of the economy, they still back him in a head-to-head race against the Democratic presidential frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a poll published today by the Daily Oakland (Mich.) Press:

Concerning the coming presidential election, respondents were evenly split - 45 percent each - over whether they were likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic challenger.

But against three of the leading Democratic challengers, Bush showed a comfortable lead. He outpaced former Vermont Gov. Dean 51 percent to 44 percent and held bigger leads over U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts (51 percent-41 percent) and U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (52 percent-39 percent).

Michigan is a particularly strategic state for the eventual Democratic presidential nominee. In the razor-close 2000 election, then-Vice President Al Gore took the state and it's 18 electoral votes. The state will have 17 electoral votes in 2004.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

The Post-Christmas Toast is Done

This week's handicapping of the Democratic field is complete.

Are you a Democrat who wants to be President? You'd better be a moderate from the South.

So says Rick Heller at Centerfield blog.

Check out his impressive chart:

Presidential Winners Since 1948

Yup. There seems to be a definite trend out there...

The Toast is Fresh

PoliBlog's Toast-O-Meter, a weekly news round-up and handicapping of the 2004 Democratic nomination process, is now up.

This Week's Toast is Done

Check on the latest Toast-O-Meter is up. It is weekly new round-up of the Nine candidates for the Democratic nomination and handicapping of the field.

Campaign Finance Ruling Gives GOP Edge

Dec 10, 5:21 PM (ET)

By SHARON THEIMER

* * *

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Supreme Court's campaign finance ruling gives the Republicans, who raise far more in small donations, a big advantage in next year's elections for the White House and Congress.

Democrats will have to try to make up the difference through outside groups exempt from most of the new restrictions.

Several Democratic-leaning groups are already in action, raising millions in corporate, union and unlimited "soft money" donations that the national parties can no longer accept under the new law.

With an eye toward unseating President Bush and taking control of Congress, they plan to finance the get-out-the-vote drives and political issue ads that their party has underwritten in the past with large soft money checks.

Republican activists had largely held off on forming new outside groups, waiting to learn the law's fate while the GOP and Bush built a commanding advantage in raising the limited donations permitted under the law. With the justices' ruling, Republicans are now aiming to match the Democratic soft-money groups dollar-for-dollar.

"If the other side is going to raise tens of millions of dollars in soft money and if the Supreme Court says it's OK to spend that on political activity, then we would be foolish not to play by the same rules," said Frank Donatelli, a GOP consultant and co-founder of Americans for a Better Country, a pro-Bush group. The group is vetting its plans with the Federal Election Commission before going ahead.

Meanwhile, congressional and presidential candidates and the national political parties must abide by the new restrictions that took effect after the 2002 elections and have now been upheld by the high court after months of legal uncertainty. The law lets candidates collect twice as much from each individual donor - $2,000 - as they could in the last election.

"It has forced elected officials to reach out to more people for smaller contributions," said Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., a sponsor of the campaign finance law who along with his colleagues must run for re-election next year.

Republicans have long raised more than Democrats in so-called hard money donations, which come from individuals and political action committees and are limited in size. But Democrats made a push in the 1990s to narrow the gap by raising corporate and union donations aggressively. The GOP also raised lots of soft money.

With that gone, Republicans enjoy an instant advantage.

The Republican National Committee and its Senate and House counterparts together raised $173 million in hard money through the first 10 months of the year, compared to just $75 million for the three national Democratic committees.

Bush has already raised more than $100 million for his re-election, compared with the top Democratic presidential fund-raiser, Howard Dean, who had about $25 million at the end of September.

"Today's ruling breaks the Democrats' back," National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds boasted.

* * *

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says it will spend on phone banks and direct mail, among other activities. The AFL-CIO has said the law won't prevent it from spending millions trying to get its members to the polls.

The National Rifle Association plans to ask each of its 4 million members to give at least $20 to its political action committee, money it could use for direct candidate support, including ads calling for candidates' election or defeat.

"It's not going to shut us up," NRA executive director Wayne LaPierre said of Wednesday's ruling. "And we're up to the task, so stay tuned."

But with the legal issues now settled by the Supreme Court, the big test of the new system will occur with the new outside soft money groups that are cropping up.

"I think it clearly underscores the need to do what we're doing," said Harold Ickes, a former Clinton White House official who has formed one such group called the Media Fund which intends to raise $10 million to help elect Democrats next year.

* * *

Link to story.

The Supreme Court's campaign finance law ruling is out

It's captioned: McConnell v. FEC.

Different Justices wrote different portions of the majority opinion. It looks like a train wreck. More later...

The Toast is Done: The 12/5 Edition is Up

The lastest Toast-O-Meter is up.

The basics: Dean remains the Top Slice, Gephardt in the two slot. Clark moves up to number three, but not because of anything he has done, but rather the fact that the Kerry campaign remains in flames.

Come by and see the entire round-up.

Command Post Dem Poll Results

The results of our most recent Command Post 2004 poll (and thanks to all who voted):