Exit Poll Panic

The early numbers coming out across the Web portend an absolute Kerry blowout. While that’s not a totally inconceivable result given the record turnout levels, it’s way too early for either side to panic. See OTB for more analysis on this.

Political Expert Sabato: Kerry Is Narrowly Ahead...And It'll Be Close

In his latest version of his highly acclaimed eletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics, sees Kerry with a narrow lead as “the electoral college goes to summer school.”

This time Sabato offers readers a map readers can click on to get analytical state breakdowns. The map and content about each state will be periodically updated, and Sabato and his staff provide you with data from 2000, the Congressional delegation, party breakdown and margin of victory in the last race.

To read his whole piece and get state-by-state breakdowns by clicking on the map go here.

And how does it look so far for 2004? “If the election were held in June 2004, Kerry would narrowly defeat President Bush by 274 to 264 electoral votes,” he writes. However, he writes, “it’s ESSENTIAL to note” this (all of these are from his report):

“1. This is CLOSE. Anyone who believes that the election could not go either way is too partisan to be helped.

2. A June map is NOT predictive of the November results. The world will turn over several times between now and Election Day (137 times, to be exact).

3. While the electoral total is a squeaker today, we caution that the November results may not be nearly as tight. This election could break clearly in one direction come fall, or even (as in 1980) during the last week of the campaign because of late-unfolding events.

4. Notice how many big, important states are balanced on the fencepost. These include: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

5. Since every electoral vote might matter, please also note that there are more than a dozen smaller states which are reasonably competitive and could flip allegiances from the 2000 vote.

6. At least at the starting gate for the general election, the 2000 results have proven to be amazingly durable in drawing up today’s likely Electoral College picture.

7. AS OF JUNE, three small states carried by George Bush four years ago appear to be leaning ever so slightly to John Kerry: Nevada, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. There is no Gore state from 2000 currently leaning to Bush, though Wisconsin seems to be the President’s best bet. Bush is also unmistakably in the hunt for prizes such as Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan.
The Crystal Ball will update the map at regular intervals—and more frequently with the onset of Labor Day.”

“REMEMBER ABOVE ALL: Where we begin does not predict where we will end. Buckle your seat belts and prepare yourselves for a ride so wild that no amusement park could insure it. “

If we click on the map (and we can’t control ourselves) we get data such as this on Florida (we have edited this down to just the main data not all the elected officials etc since it has lots of detail):

Leans Republican….Does everyone have the same spine-tingling fear when they see all the recent polls showing the Sunshine State tied? Please God, not 2000 all over again! It’s very possible, but our current guess is that this is Bush’s low water mark, and that only if Kerry is winning the White House handily does he get Florida, too. It may be Jeb to the rescue for his big brother once again.

Another swing state, Michigan:

Leans Democratic ….Here’s another barnburner. Early polls have shown this huge Midwestern state to be close, and in 2000, Gore managed to win by only 217,000 votes out of well over 4 million cast. Should Bush pull out of his tailspin and soar in the fall, Michigan will be in contention. But the state fairly consistently leans Democratic, and the Democrats control the governorship and both U.S. Senate seats. It will be hard for Bush to wrest this prize from the Kerry column.

The great thing about the analyses of Sabato and his staff is how they step back and assess from a distance, rather than from a partisan cheerleading session, so you feel you’re getting data that’s as objective as possible.

Visit it and click on the states…and you won’t want to stop…as you read the Crystal Ball’s state-by-state political status reports.

Stage Set For Another Florida Voting Mess

Watch Florida. The stage is being set there for yet another vote-counting controversy, this time over new electronic voting machines versus the punch ballots that gave the U.S. electorate a crash course in such quaint phraes as “hanging chads” (which sounds like a high school mass suicide).

Various reports out of Florida paint the picture of a pre-election skirmish over the machines that seemingly lays the groundwork for both sides to justify their position in a new controversy. Like this one from the Tallahassee Democrat:

Despite all of the problems in the 2000 presidential election - or more likely, because of them - Florida is now considered one of the leaders in election reform.

But with five months remaining before voters again cast their ballots for president, a cloud of uncertainty is obscuring what could be one of the smoothest elections ever.

Much of that uncertainty centers on the security of the new electronic voting machines.

With no paper ballots to analyze for voter intent, skeptics ask, how is it possible to do recounts

The machines have also become a high-profile controversy here in California. And, the story notes, while the Women’s League of Voters’ national group has endorsed the machines, local chapters in Florida and California are opposing it.

Gov. Jeb Bush has often characterized the controversy as being fanned by Democrats trying to anger voters into coming to the polls to defeat his brother, President George W. Bush. Indeed, lawsuits against the systems in Florida have come from Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton.

But the entry of the nonpartisan League of Women Voters into the fray - as well as recent delays by some states in implementing the technology until questions are answered - indicates the issue goes beyond partisan politics.

Indeed, Robert Wexler is an effective partisan for his voters and party…but he is above all a partisan. His credibility with Republicans is equal to Tom Delay’s credibility with Democrats. He’s one of those politicos who instantly polarizes the other side and does absolutely zip to win over those in the middle (who know where he is coming from).

But the prominent role of a partisan doesn’t offset increasingly publicized views of groups such as the Women’s League of Voters.

The paper quotes one of our favorite analysts, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, for an outsider’s view:”“A lot of it comes from the computer science and academic fields. It’s being asked all over the country,” Sabato said. “Is there a partisan edge to it? Of course. Democrats, by and large, believe they were cheated out of the presidency in 2000, so they are suspicious - suspicious to the point of paranoia.”

The paranoia has been fed by the truly poor — and dumb — choice of words by a bigwig for one of the biggest companies producing the machines. Read this and see — even if you are a Republican — why Democrats who are distrustful to begin with don’t trust the machines:

Of the major touch-screen system vendors, Diebold, of North Canton, Ohio, has been especially controversial. That is partially because its CEO, Walden O’Dell, is a Bush “Pioneer” who has raised more than $100,000 for the president’s re-election campaign.

The Florida Division of Elections certified its first electronic system by Diebold Elections Systems last month - just as California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley banned a Diebold system in four counties and asked for a criminal investigation because Diebold changed its computer codes without notifying the state.

“I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year,” O’Dell wrote in a 2003 memo inviting Bush supporters to a fund-raiser.

O’Dell has since said he meant he would personally support the president, not through his voting-machine company, adding that would be a “treasonous felony atrocity.”

Diebold spokesman David Bear told the Tallahassee Democrat the company changed some codes in California to reflect a new voting category of “undeclared voter” after it was created by state law, but didn’t change any coding that’s fundamental to tallying ballots.

If you think about it, O’Dell’s comments are what’s spurring much of this controversy on. In America’s 21st Century Polarized Political World, some beliefs on the right and left start with a suspicion that festers.

If a comment or action — no matter how big or small — emerges to even minutely confirm that suspicion, people run with it and the suspicion becomes reality in their perceptions.

The bottom line: look for electronic voting to be looked at with intense distrust and any questions over it turn into huge political and legal issues. The people superivising and installing electronic voting machines are going to have to act to remove even the slightest doubts about the accuracy and legitimacy of the new machines — or by 2005 the cynacism seen in 2000 may one day be seen as a mere raindrop in a skeptical ocean.

Dems on National Security in Louisiana this Weekend

Here’s some news that’s gone wholly unnoticed in press coverage of Election 2004: The Democrats’ “Interactive Platform Tour” will stop in Baton Rouge June 5 to discuss National Security.

I’m not exactly sure how “interactive” this meeting is gong to be. The notice says that there will be “experts” and veterans there, but I have yet to see any listing of who the “experts” are.

Despite the barrage of rhetoric, I’m not sure I see any obvious differences between Kerry’s brand of foreign policy and the status quo, except for heightened use of buzzwords “multilateralism” and “less arrogance.”

Sandy Berger outlined Kerry’s brand of foreign policy in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, but it’s pretty empty of substance.

I’m shocked — SHOCKED — that the Liberal (or “Progressive,” if you want to use the new word for it) wing of the Democrat Party has allowed this to happen. Yes, yes, I know that there’s a noticeable ABB mindset settling in, but the firebrands of the Dean crowd did not strike me as particuarly eager to “buy in.”

(Then again, some Deaniacs are still reluctant to suport Kerry, as the Boston Globe wrote.)

I’d like to know — are there any liberals out there who are actually angry about Kerry’s foreign policy views? Or is everyone on board. Does anyone have any thoughts about the Platform meeting? Did anyone even know about the the Platform meeting?

Finally, does anyone know who the Platform “experts” will be? Anyone want to take any guesses? Maybe Zinni will pause his book tour to participate.

Air America runs bit calling for Bush assassination; GM pulls ads

Via the New York Daily News:

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The United States “is on the slippery slope to theocratic fascism.” “The Catholic Church has been secretly encouraging oral sex for years.”

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld “ought to be tortured.” President Bush should be taken out and shot.

Those are a few nutso nuggets from the hosts of Air America Radio, which calls itself the new liberal voice. The fledgling network is carried in New York on WLIB, 1190 AM. With the Iraq torture scandal everywhere, I tuned in, expecting to hear sober policy analysis mixed with glee over President Bush’s political pickle.

Instead, I got 10 hours of rancid venom directed at the President, Rumsfeld, Rush Limbaugh, the Catholic Church and anyone else the hosts felt like slamming. If you’re a card-carrying lib who likes crude sex jokes and a cartoonish echo chamber, Air America is for you.

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Rock bottom came when she compared Bush and his family to the Corleones in the “Godfather” saga. “Like Fredo, somebody ought to take him out fishing and phuw,” she said, imitating the sound of gunfire.

During a day of torture by radio, I heard ads for Hewlett-Packard, Greyhound and, especially, General Motors. I asked GM why it appeared in such shows.

Ryndee Carney, GM’s manager of marketing communications, said the ads were wrongly picked up from an earlier deal with WLIB. She said the station was ordered to “cease and desist” yesterday, and added: “GM will not advertise on any Air America affiliates.”

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This is a duplicate of the original post on the nikita demosthenes website.

Battle between Democrat Party and Catholic Church continues

Per the New York Daily News:

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A prominent pro-choice politician is quitting the Catholic Church after being told he would be denied Communion, it was reported yesterday.

New Jersey Senate Majority Leader Bernard Kenny (D-Hoboken), a former altar boy, told the Philadelphia Inquirer he’s leaving the church after 57 years.

“I will look for other options to express my faith and will probably join another Christian church,” he said.

- - - - - - -

Kenny told the paper he decided to leave after a meeting with his pastor, Msgr. Frank Del Prete of Sts. Peter and Paul Church in Hoboken. Kenny said he asked if, as a politician who supports abortion rights and stem-cell research, he would be denied Communion.

Del Prete told him he would be permitted Communion one more time “but that then he would tell me not to come again.”

Del Prete yesterday confirmed the meeting but said he was not at liberty to discuss it.

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Newark Archbishop John Myers wrote this month that it was “objectively dishonest” for Catholics who “publicly dissent” with the church’s pro-life teachings to receive Communion. “No one has an absolute right to the Eucharist,” Myers wrote.

The statement led New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey to say he would not take Communion, at least in public.

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry - who is also pro-choice and Catholic - received Communion yesterday at a Mother’s Day Mass in suburban Pittsburgh.

A task force of U.S. bishops is considering Communion guidelines for Catholics who publicly advocate abortion rights and other positions fundamentally at odds with the church.

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This is a duplicate of the original post at the nikita demosthenes website.

Democrats Attempt Massive Voter Fraud in Chicago

In Cook County, Illinois - a jurisdiction in which every single elected official is a Democrat - a massive attempt at voter fraud has been uncovered. Here are excerpts from the story in the Chicago Tribune:

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As many as 2,000 fraudulent voter registrations, almost all from the city’s 26th Ward, have been submitted in advance of Tuesday’s primary election, and two suspects are under investigation, election officials announced Thursday.

The two gathered registrations on behalf of the Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration, a Washington, D.C.-based affiliate of the Puerto Rican government, officials said.

“I don’t want to indict the organization,” said Langdon Neal, chairman of the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. “It has been a very valuable partner in registering voters.”

- - - - - - -

“We consider this one of the largest cases of fraud we have seen in many years,” he said.

The 26th Ward, on the city’s Near Northwest Side, has about 24,000 registered voters.

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“[A] very valuable partner in registering voters” indeed. Perhaps this sort of thing is the reason why every single elected official in Cook County is a Democrat.

Chicago’s 26th Ward - the epicenter of the fraud - is also dominated by Democrats. See, e.g., the web sites of Alderman Billy Ocasio and Congressman Luis Gutierrez.

Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post on the nikita demosthenes website.

California Supreme Court Halts San Francisco Gay Marriages

The Supreme Court of California, earlier today, halted gay marriages in San Francisco. Here’s an excerpt from the late-breaking story in the L.A. Times:

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The California Supreme Court today halted same-sex weddings in San Francisco until it could decide whether local authorities have the right to ignore state laws that limit marriage to heterosexuals.

The seven-justice panel will hear arguments sometime in the spring.

In the unanimously approved order, the justices made it clear that they would be considering only one question — whether San Francisco officials could defy state law, and not whether same-sex couples have the right to marry.

Today’s ruling is a major setback to San Francisco officials and their allies in gay rights groups who were hoping to have the high court consider their argument that the state Constitution bars discrimination against gay couples.

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Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post at the nikita demosthenes website.

MoveOn.org to Counter Bush's Ad Blitz

A Democratic-leaning online group will run television commercials in 17 presidential battleground states starting Thursday to counter President Bush’s multimillion-dollar advertising blitz that will begin the same day.

This $1.9 million, five-day effort will be its most far-reaching. The ads will ensure that there is a Democratic presence on the TV airwaves in key states as Bush begins to make his case for re-election.

In most states, MoveOn will run a new ad that takes Bush to task for his economic policies, including overtime pay and outsourcing jobs. In others, the group will run a previously released spot that shows images of children toiling on a grocery line and in a tire factory coupled with the text, “Guess who’s going to pay off President Bush’s $1 trillion deficit?”

Ads will run over five days at medium levels on broadcast stations in 67 media markets in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The television industry estimates that the average viewer in each media market would see a MoveOn spot about five times during the group’s ad run.

“We’re really stepping up our efforts to make sure our members’ voices are heard,” Wes Boyd, the group’s founder, said Tuesday. “We are trying to get these messages out about these fundamental issues.”

FOX News

Candidate Schedules

Edwards

Our supporters will gather with Senator Edwards at 7:00 PM in Atlanta for an election night party.
Georgia Tech Hotel & Convention Center, 800 Spring Street NW.

Kerry

7:00 pm West Hartford, CT
Connecticut supporters of John Kerry plan to gather at the Prospect Cafe to watch Super Tuesday returns come in.

7:00 pm Washington, DC
John Kerry will host a Super Tuesday Election Night Party at the Old Post Office Pavilion at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue. This event is open to the public - please join us!

Kucinich

subject to change WITHOUT NOTICE

4:00 - 7:00 p.m. ET
Polling
Campaign contact: Darlene White, (216) 458-7120
Site # 1: Woodbury Elementary School
15400 South Woodland Ave.
Shaker Heights, Ohio
Site # 2: Holy Trinity, Ward 2
3808 East 131st Street
Cleveland, Ohio
Site # 3: Corlett Library, Ward 2
3830 East 131st
Cleveland, Ohio

Cleveland, Ohio
7:30 p.m. ET
Campaign Watch Party
Club Moda
1871 West 25th
Campaign contacts: Tia Sanford, (216) 536-3576 and Lea Tolls, (216) 337-7215

Al Sharpton is expected in New York

NYT has an interesting article in the Kerry/Edwards relationship

… Three years ago when, at Mr. Kerry’s suggestion, the two had dinner at Olives, a trendy restaurant near the White House, to swap stories after Al Gore passed over both in picking a running mate. Each told associates he enjoyed the other’s company, but it was not quite the beginning of a beautiful relationship.
Now, as the presidential campaign has narrowed to a race between the two senators on the eve of the coast-to-coast Super Tuesday primaries, strains between them are growing evident.
Their relationship has become a source of speculation among Democrats, not only because they are rivals in the primaries but also because party leaders are increasingly entertaining the notion of a Kerry-Edwards ticket.
They have at times seemed chummy, as they did during Thursday’s debate in Los Angeles, when Mr. Edwards gently touched Mr. Kerry on the shoulder during a point of disagreement. But they have also seemed distant, as was the case on Sunday in New York, when they shook hands after a particularly contentious televised exchange and went their separate ways with few words……..

“Chemistry is an elusive thing; you never know until you try,” said Senator Evan Bayh, the Indiana Democrat, a friend of Mr. Edwards. “I’m sure that whatever the substantive or stylistic differences now, they could work their way through that for the common good.”

“I really don’t think either would pick the other,” said Senator Orrin G. Hatch, the Utah Republican, adding, “Well, they might if they’re forced to.”
Asked how the two Democrats get along, Mr. Hatch replied: “I don’t think particularly well. Kerry is not the warmest person, and Edwards just hasn’t been here.”

Georia Projection

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV tracking poll conducted by Zogby International is projecting Kerry 51%, Edwards 37% in Georgia. (no direct link available yet)

Looking for a VP?

Campaigns and Elections Mag. showing the popular VP choices.

DEMOCRATIC VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION 2004

TOP TIER CHOICES:
Sen. John Edwards (NC), 4 to 1 (20% chance)
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance)
Gov. Ed Rendell (PA), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Evan Bayh (IN), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Gen. Wesley Clark, 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance)

On The Trail And Talking Points.

Enron overtaken as Bush’s top financial supporter by MBNA

with its employees giving more than $603,000 to Mr. Bush.

Executives at Enron continued to give to Mr. Bush in small amounts, despite the company’s bankruptcy filing. The president received $3,000 in 2003 from four people who listed Enron as their employer, according to the center. Enron’s collapse amid an accounting scandal gave rise to corporate accountability measures and helped pass the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation in 2002. The company was a sore spot for Mr. Bush, who was friends with the company’s chief executive, Kenneth L. Lay.

Democrats, including the presidential candidates, have not been shy about trying to connect the company to the president - criticism that is likely to continue. An aide at the Bush campaign declined to comment on the company’s change on Mr. Bush’s rankings.

Edwards repetitive?

Mr. Edwards’s prospects of winning California appear bleak; his campaign clearly recognizes this and scratched a day of campaigning that had been set for Friday in the state. And the speech, for its all striking themes and rhetoric, did not appear to draw an abundant amount of attention, a reflection of the level of interest in this contest and the perception that the better days of Mr. Edwards’s campaign might be behind him.
But no matter. Perhaps some of the 1,000 or so students who heard this Washington politician make a decidedly unusual appeal will remember one day what they heard, and will take the message to heart. And who knows; one day, if not this year, or even this election, they might take the messenger to heart as well.

Kerry and Edwards Duel

In California, Mr. Edwards offered a broad anti-poverty plan that he said could help create five million new jobs, partly by offering access to venture capital and tax incentives to create work in poor communities. “People say that we can never lift Americans out of poverty, and I say we will,” said Mr. Edwards. “We will so long as each one of us tries.”

Mr. Kerry, in Ohio, emphasized a plan introduced in the Senate that would require companies to give workers 90 days notice if they intend to move operations offshore. They would also have to provide the rationale for the shift, the location they are going and the number of workers affected. “Companies will no longer be able to surprise their workers with a pink slip instead of a paycheck,” he said. Mr. Edwards backs that plan as well.

The policy proposals appeared to have a double aim. Not only are they intended to win votes in areas that have experienced job loss, but they allow the candidates to counter President Bush’s criticism earlier this week that his opponents are only carping, not offering alternative plans.

Both men are also taking a page from former President Bill Clinton’s playbook in emphasizing the economic front. It worked for him against a Bush in the White House. Whether it can work for the Democratic nominee this time will depend on the state of the economy and how well this President Bush does at showing how his plans are contributing to economic growth.

NYT Times on the Trail

More Kerry - Edwards

Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) clashed over the death penalty, trade and special interests in a lively debate here Thursday, with Edwards questioning Kerry’s ability to carry crucial swing states against President Bush and Kerry touting his experience as a key ingredient for victory this fall.
The gay-marriage issue arose on a day when celebrity Rosie O’Donnell was married in San Francisco.

“What’s happening here is this president is talking about first amending the United States Constitution for a problem that does not exist,” Edwards said. “The law today does not require one state to recognize the marriage of another state.” ……………

Kerry was asked about his opposition to the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, one of 14 senators to do so. He was reminded that he had opposed it in part because he believed it was unconstitutional and was asked whether Bush is correct in saying the only way to ensure that other states do not have to recognize gay marriages approved elsewhere is through a constitutional amendment. Kerry seemed to back away from his previous position.

“I think, under the ‘full faith and credit’ laws, that I was incorrect in that statement,” Kerry said. “I think, in fact, that no state has to recognize something that is against their public policy. And for 200 years, we have left marriage up to the states. There is no showing whatsoever today that any state in the country, including my own — which is now dealing with its own constitutional amendment — is incapable of dealing with what they would like to do.”

WaPo

More on Gay Marriage

From a political standpoint, calling for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage was probably a “win-win” for the White House. Polls show most Americans support banning same-sex marriage, even while many of them support allowing some form of civil unions.
The White House’s calculation is that — given support in the polls for banning same-sex marriage — the president won’t face a backlash from moderate voters. And those who are most likely to be angered aren’t going to vote for him anyway.
On the other hand, the president appeases a base that has grown frustrated with his reluctance to insert himself into the culture wars that dominated the early 1980s

WaPo

Final Numbers From Nevada

From the Nevada State Democratic Party website:

UNOFFICIAL RESULTS (99% Precincts Reporting)

Statewide
Kerry, John: 63%
Dean, Howard: 17%
Edwards, John: 10%
Kucinich, Dennis: 7%
Sharpton, Al: 1%
Uncommitted: 3%
Other: Less than 1%

Official Results of the Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus will be certified the week of Feb. 16th.

Dirty Politics

(CNN) — Despite calls to move away from negative attacks in the 2004 presidential campaign season, Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie and campaign officials for Democratic hopeful John Kerry traded barbs, each accusing the other of dirty politics.

Gillespie accused Democrats on Thursday night of “using some of the most vitriolic rhetoric in the history of presidential politics,” then called his Democratic counterpart the “John Wilkes Booth of presidential character assassination.”

His speech in Reno, Nevada, focused on Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who is the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination.

“We highlight policies, and note Senator Kerry’s long Senate record. They accuse the president of desertion — a military crime punishable by death — as the Clark campaign did, or accuse the president of being AWOL, which is a felony, punishable by imprisonment, as DNC chair Terry McAuliffe has done,” Gillespie said. “Terry McAuliffe has become the John Wilkes Booth of presidential character assassination.”

Questions about Bush’s service in the Texas Air National Guard recently intensified after McAuliffe said Bush was absent without leave from his Guard service from May 1972 to May 1973 when he was transferred from Texas to Alabama so he could work on a Senate political campaign.

The White House has fought back, releasing payroll records it says prove Bush fulfilled his requirements and was honorably discharged. Most recently, the White House released a document showing that Bush received a dental exam at the Dannelly Air National Guard Base in Montgomery, Alabama on January 6, 1973.

“It’s only February and they have made clear they intend to run the dirtiest campaign in modern presidential politics. This is because they don’t want a debate on the issues, and they don’t want to run on Senator Kerry’s record,” Gillespie said.

In response to Gillespie’s speech, James Bilbray and Terry Care, co-chairs of Kerry’s Nevada campaign, issued a statement calling Gillespie the president’s “favorite attack dog” who was spreading “false, nasty personal charges.”

They urged Bush to “call off his right-wing slime machine.”

“This is the dirtiest, most ruthlessly political White House since Richard Nixon, and they’re desperate to hide the worst jobs record since Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression,” the statement said.

Todays Dish on the Candidates.

Howard Kurtz of WaPo gives a selective detailed history of Kerry’s career.

The chairman of the Tennessee Democratic Party, Randall A. Button, gives his thoughts on the two southern candidates.

And the latest from AP following the candidates.

Kurtz

“Between 1985 and 1990, Kerry’s first five years in the Senate from Massachusetts, he pocketed annual amounts slightly under the limits for speaking fees set by Congress. Unlike many colleagues, he donated a speaking fee to charity only once, according to annual financial disclosure reports reviewed by The Associated Press.

“One of the companies to pay Kerry $1,000 for a speech in 1987, Miami-based Metalbanc, was later indicted, along with two executives, on charges it helped the Cali drug cartel in Colombia launder money in the United States. The charges eventually were dropped because the firm was defunct.

“At the time of the 1987 speech to Metalbanc, Kerry was chairman of the Senate subcommittee that investigated drug trafficking and money laundering.

“Kerry, now the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, said he didn’t learn about the drug connection to the company or its executives, who also gave him political donations, until The Boston Globe informed him of it in 1996. He donated several thousand dollars to charities to make amends.”

Button

“They are both Southerners that have a message that resonates with Southerners,” Mr. Button said. If they lose, he said, “it’s gotten down to this: Let’s move ahead to our objective, and our objective is unseating George W. Bush.”

AP

In a fresh sign of growing strength, the Massachusetts senator also gained an endorsement from Sen. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin, one week ahead of that state’s primary.

Clark made the rounds in Nashville, delivering doughnuts to volunteers at polling places around the city. “I’m helping the people who are helping me change the country,” he said. “We can do it.”

Edwards paid a visit to a morning polling place in northern Virginia and made plans to fly to Wisconsin later in the day in a show of determination to remain in the race. His campaign manager, Nick Baldick, told reporters the campaign has enough money to compete through the end of the month.

Howard Dean made little effort in the day’s primary states, focusing his efforts on Wisconsin.

Sunday Show Off

No doubt everyone will be tuning into Meet The Press tomorrow.

Every President since John F. Kennedy has appeared on the program during their political career. President Bush will become the fourth President to appear while in office

John Edwards will have a chance to counter Kerry with his appearances on This Week with George Stephanopolous and Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.

Lost support, Lost ambition.

AFSCME has withdrawn support for Dean in the light of latest standing.

While Edwards continues to seek Union backing he is now saying that he doesn’t need the win in Tenn., Wis. and Va.

Dean up for VP

When asked on a radio interview yesterday if he would accept the VP slot,

“I would, to the extent, do anything I could to get rid of President Bush. I’ll do whatever is best for the party. Obviously, I’m running for president, but whatever’s best is what I’ll do. Anything.”

On The Today Show this morning Dean added,

“if John Kerry were the nominee, I’d advise him not to pick me because you don’t need two people from New England on the ticket”

My Vote Counts.

I got to polls early to avoid the crowd. My voting location is actually a block down the street from my house so I decided to walk. Well, I ran part of the way from a mangy neighborhood dog. There were only a few people there and I was happy I didn’t have to sign an oath. It was an Elementary School and there were children everywhere fulfilling their responsibility to stand in a strait line and not move. I was amused to see that Carol and Dick were still on the ticket, I’m sure they’ll still get a few votes. On the way back home I wondered, while watching out for the dog, if I voted for whom I meant to vote for as I didn’t double check the name beside my check-mark. Oh well, here is a little of what’s going on this morning.

A Wapo article say’s Edwards will drop from the race if he doesn’t win SC.

the decision will be simple. Edwards will congratulate Kerry, quickly endorse the Massachusetts senator as the Democratic nominee and head home.

However, MSNBC has been reporting that Edwards has denied that he made those remarks. As he should. It seems absurd to me that the leader in SC would even mention dropping out at this point.

A Tale of Two Polls

Tonight's primary vote will also help us to properly assess Zogby's habit of factoring in "leaners". I am skeptical of this practice myself, but time will be the judge. Below are two polls, one is from ARG which doesn't assign undecideds to one camp or the other. The other is from Zogby, who has completely eliminated the undecided category by asking people which way they lean. I think this gives a false image of the electorate ... but who am I.

The Latest ARG Poll. Does not factor in "leaners."


The Latest Zogby Poll. Does factor in "leaners."

Primary Tracking 02-03-04
	AZ	MO	OK	SC
Kerry	42	56	29	32
Dean	15	9	6	8
Edwards	7	17	26	36
Clark	28	6	31	8
Lieberman	6	3	6	5
Kucinich	1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Sharpton	0	4	1	8
Undecided	*	*	*	*
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding In today’s release, Leaners among the Undecideds have been factored in. *Undecideds have been eliminated in the Final percentage. [ Read More ]

The Beginning of the End.

Sen. Kerry has a few lines which he doesn’t overuse; “This campaign is the beginning of the end for the Bush White House”, or “Don’t vote to send a message, vote to send a Dem. President into the White House”. Perhaps this will assist to his advantage in a dual with Edwards and his popular yet painfully repeatitive “2 America’s” stump speech. Though Kerry affiliation with Special Interest might get the best of him yet.

While this New York Times artilce, Left at the Alter, Missouri Seeks New Groom at Last Minute, notes the sizable trophy awaiting John Kerry,

Missouri is far from Mr. Kerry’s base in Massachusetts. It is also one of the first states on the electoral calendar with large metropolitan areas — St. Louis and Kansas City and their suburbs will account for nearly three-quarters of the vote — and populous rural areas, too. It has a sizable African-American minority (11.2 percent) and a growing Hispanic population.

In brief, it has most of the pieces of the American puzzle.

The Associted Press; Kerry, Dean Spar over Special Interest continues to show Kerry’s weak spots coming to the foreground. Edwards sits from the sidelines as Dean builds on a confrontation in his remarks yesterday about Kerry,

“He misrepresented himself, grossly misrepresented himself, as a candidate who would take on special interests in Washington,”

This Washington Post article is already getting a lot of attention. Dean Vows to Stay In Race Even if he is Winless Tuesday

“To suggest that anyone ought to step out of the race after 10 percent of the delegates are selected is ridiculous,” he said at an appearance in Milwaukee

Rueters is keeping it’s eye in the quiet guys.

Edwards leads SC, Clark in OK.

“If Edwards wins in South Carolina and polls strongly enough to win delegates in Missouri and Oklahoma, he has some significant regional strength and can certainly make a case to go on,” pollster John Zogby said.

On Campaign Trail, Edwards Combines Personal With Political, NYT, notes that Edwards

is able to use vivid language and big themes to move his audiences in a way that none of his opponents, except perhaps for Howard Dean, have been able to do.

It is one reason, many Democrats say, that should Mr. Edwards survive the primary here on Tuesday and show some strength elsewhere, he may emerge as the only Democrat with a shot at stopping Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts after his wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Washington Post, Eager to Face Any Jury - and the Voters notes his inspiring lovability,

“The problem was that all the older women wanted to take him home as their son, and all the younger ones wanted to go out with him,” rued an attorney for several doctors sued by Edwards on behalf of brain-damaged babies. “You’d think, ‘Okay, if the women like him, the men must hate him.’ But then the guys just saw him as one of them.”

One thing is for sure. Tomorrow marks the official beginning of the end for somebody.

[Cross-Posted at The Temporal Globe]

S.C. Primary News 1/29

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
(See also today’s primary calendar in the Post & Courier)
12 p.m. Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1 p.m. “Candidate Welcome Lunch & Drop-In,” Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
6 p.m. “Heat It Up In January” Debate-Watching Party, Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
6 p.m. “South Carolina Victory” Debate-Watching Dinner & After-Party, Coliseum Ristorante (formerly Occasionally Blues), West End Market, 1 Augusta St., Greenville
6:30 p.m. Greenville Technical College Debate-Watching Assembly, Verne Smith Library/Technical Resource Center, Greenville Tech
6:30 Clemson University Debate-Watching Assembly, Lee Hall Auditorium on Campus, Clemson.
7 p.m. (doors close at 6) Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, 600 S. Main St., Greenville
8:30 p.m. S.C. Democratic Party Chairman’s Reception, Poinsett Restaurant, Westin Poinsett Hotel, 120 South Main St., Greenville
[Remaining Schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
According to Fox News, Clark made his stop in Charleston yesterday just a fuel stop for his plane so that he could still make it to Missouri and Arizona yesterday under FAA regulations for pilot rest.

Democrats distribute ballots, The State
S.C. requires parties to run their own presidential preference primaries (one of two states that still does so) and that usually means old-fashioned paper ballots.

Politics has a past in South Carolina, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Welcome, Dems, to an uneasy state, The Greenville News

Candidates aim for middle in South Carolina, USA Today

Steven Taylor points out that Dean is not airing ads in South Carolina, or any other state with a February 3 primary. Taegan Goddard has more.

Four Peas In a Pod, S.C. GOP News Release

Clyburn Endorses Kerry from my post yesterday.

Kevin McGeehee discusses the effect of the Kerry endorsement by Clyburn on Edwards and the possible withdrawal of Dean endorsements by some union leaders.

Clyburn to endorse Kerry, Greenville News

Kerry, Edwards vie for S.C. prize, The State
Photo of Edwards in Orangeburg

James Joyner links to and discusses Black voters play key role in S. Carolina, Missouri in the Washington Times.

Kerry, Edwards pursue black votes in South Carolina, Charleston Post & Courier
Black voter turnout to make a difference, Greenville News

Ranks of Hispanic voters swelling, Greenville News

Economy on minds in South Carolina, Raleigh News & Observer

Hopefuls try to woo disaffected workers, The State

Kerry likely target as rivals debate tonight in Greenville,Post & Courier

Some advice for the candidates, Lee Bandy, The State

Democrats try to reach state’s voters tonight, Greenville News

Local voters still in listening mode, Greenville News

Brokaw holds candidates to their word, Greenville News
Complete Transcript of Brokaw interview
Photo Gallery of Tom Brokaw doing the NBC Nightly News in Greenville.

Erwin ‘doggedly’ sought local debate, Greenville News

S.C. Young Democrats reveling in big night, The State

Three-ring media circus descends on Greenville, Greenville News
Photo Gallery of debate preparations

City rolling out debate red carpet, Greenville News

Debate worth more than money, Greenville News

Belton songbird to open debate, Greenville News

Wonkette has links to S.C.-related articles.

Remaining Schedule:
1/30: 7:30 a.m. “Breakfast with the Boys,” Palmetto Exposition Center, 1 Exposition Ave., Greenville
1/30: 11 a.m: Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
2/2: John Edwards, Seneca
2/3 7:30 p.m., Charleston County Democrats Election Bash, City Bar, 192 East Bay Street, Charleston

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com

Yesterday’s Primary News

S.C. Primary News 1/28

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
8 a.m. Wesley Clark, Charleston
10 a.m. John Edwards, Fine Arts Center, S.C. State Univ., Orangeburg
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Note: As of late Tuesday evening, 200,000 S.C. residents were still without power following a winter storm earlier in the week.

Presidential candidate to visit SCSU today from the Orangeburg Times & Democrat discusses John Edwards’ trip to Orangeburg today.

Edwards packed for South Carolina after N.H. verdict from Ross Sneyd of the AP via Boston.com

Howard Kim writes in the Yale Daily News that “South Carolina, and not Iowa or New Hampshire, will be remembered as a crucial turning point in the 2004 Democratic Primaries.”

Taegan Goddard discusses the latest Survey USA poll for South Carolina:

According to a new Survey USA poll, Sen. John Edwards leads the South Carolina primary with 32 percent. Wesley Clark is second with 17 percent, Howard Dean is third at 16 percent and Sen. John Kerry is fourth at 13 percent. Just two weeks ago, Dean and Clark were tied for first.

Once again, Michael Graham offers a caveat regarding South Carolina polling for the Democratic primary.

Analysts say S.C. can seal it for Kerry in The State features analysis from Larry Sabato and Don Fowler.

After wins in Iowa and NH, Kerry must make up for lost time in SC from the Associated Press includes comments from Sabato, Scott Huffmon and former Governor Jim Hodges.

South Carolina Primary Looms Large from the Newhouse News Service quotes Dick Harpootlian, Ferrell Guillory and Don Fowler.

Military retirees urge better benefits by Lauren Markoe of Knight-Ridder discusses military retirees and veterans in S.C. and how they might vote.

Black voters play key role in S. Carolina, Missouri, Washington Times

Another article in The State discusses the reporting from around the country on the S.C. primary.

Mike questions the following tidbit from a Reuters story:

Republicans and independent voters can vote in South Carolina’s Democratic primary, but must sign a pledge publicly declaring themselves Democrats.

I recall some reporting of this before and I seem to remember comments in the local media that it wasn’t a legally binding pledge and had no impact on voting in state primaries later this year.

Lost Jobs Trump All in South Carolina Primary, Reuters

Mike also discusses something he heard on MSNBC:

Alex Witt on MSNBC:

“Dean says he’ll win South Carolina.”

The same Lawrence O’Donnell:

“That’s nuts.”

WIS is accepting questions from viewers for Friday’s candidate forum in Columbia.

Wyeth Ruthven provides an in-depth rundown of the South Carolina Primary for Taegan Goddard.

Democrats’ Greenville debate sparks party atmosphere, Greenville News

Forget the South, Democrats… Stop coddling the spoiled brat of presidential politics by Timothy Noah at Slate.

Jack O’Toole, a S.C. blogger and consultant, responds to Kerry’s comments on the South. The State also reports on Kerry’s remarks.

Kat, another S.C. blogger, discusses why she can no longer support Howard Dean.

Stephen Green discusses the upcoming Southern primaries.

Go Dubya discusses Clark’s chances in S.C.

Remaining Schedule:
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1 p.m. “Candidate Welcome Lunch & Drop-In,” Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
1/29: 6 p.m. “Heat It Up In January” Debate-Watching Party, Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
1/29: 6 p.m. “South Carolina Victory” Debate-Watching Dinner & After-Party, Coliseum Ristorante (formerly Occasionally Blues), West End Market, 1 Augusta St., Greenville
1/29: 6:30 p.m. Greenville Technical College Debate-Watching Assembly, Verne Smith Library/Technical Resource Center, Greenville Tech
1/29: 6:30 Clemson University Debate-Watching Assembly, Lee Hall Auditorium on Campus, Clemson.
1/29: 7 p.m. (doors close at 6) Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, 600 S. Main St., Greenville
1/29: 8:30 p.m. S.C. Democratic Party Chairman’s Reception, Poinsett Restaurant, Westin Poinsett Hotel, 120 South Main St., Greenville
1/30: 7:30 a.m. “Breakfast with the Boys,” Palmetto Exposition Center, 1 Exposition Ave., Greenville
1/30: 11 a.m: Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com

Yesterday’s Primary News

Who's Out, Who's Not: Instant NH Analysis

If the numbers hold up, it looks like Kerry could have another impressive victory in New Hampshire. With 71% of Districts reporting CNN has called the race. Kerry appears to have won by around 15% of the vote. So the question now is who still has a chance and who doesn’t.

Read the Rest on the TCP-OpEd Page.

S.C. Primary News 1/27

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Previous Primary News update

Today’s Schedule:
9 p.m., Blues Traveler concert for Wesley Clark, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Michael Graham discusses S.C. polling and John Kerry’s recent comments.

6 of the 7 remaining candidates are confirmed for the Center for Community Change forum in Columbia Friday. Howard Dean hasn’t confirmed yet. The Blues Traveler concert for Clark tonight has been cancelled due to weather conditions. Sharpton campaigned in the state yesterday and his event last night was cancelled due to weather.

The S.C. chapter of the DLC is sponsoring a pre-debate survey online. It includes a mechanism to submit questions for individual candidates. The deadline for completing the survey is Wednesday night at 11:59 (I’m assuming since the date on the survey press release at SC Hotline says Wednesday the 29th that they meant Wednesday the 28th since the debate itself will be over by 11:59 p.m. on the 29th.)

Forget the South? from ABCNews.com features John Kerry’s remarks on the South.

Glenn Reynolds links to a Tom Maguire post on the Kerry remarks. Reynolds also links to Wyeth Ruthven’s post found below and to a list of S.C. political links at GlennReynolds.com.

Wyeth Ruthven discusses S.C. poll numbers and Kerry’s remarks on the South.

Mike also discusses the poll numbers.

S.C. primary poll has Edwards on top, The State, 1/26/04

The State features an article today on the resurgence of the Young Democrats in South Carolina and features a picture of Sunday’s Generation Dean rally in Columbia.

Democratic campaign poised to shift to South Carolina, Greenville News, 1/27/04:

Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean are pressing their campaigns in South Carolina, as is Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman. U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich is sticking in the race, too.

Armstrong said Kerry now has 11 people in South Carolina, as many as U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri had when he dropped out after Iowa and far less than some of the others.

Clark has 55 paid staffers operating out of Columbia and regional offices, an increase of 19 in two weeks. Edwards campaign reported nine, plus others from a post-Iowa influx. The Dean and Lieberman campaigns couldn’t be reached for comment, but on Jan. 12 reported 35 and seven staffers, respectively.

Democrats and God, The State, 1/27/04

Older black women a primary key, The State, 1/26/04

Sharpton tells voters he will not drop out, Associated Press, 1/26/04

Make-or-break outcome likely in S.C. Democratic vote, Charleston Post & Courier, 1/25/04

Democrats in state see long-term gains, Greenville News, 1/25/04

A Candidate’s Guide to South Carolina, The State, 1/25/04

Choosing to vote is the most important primary decision by Joe Erwin, 1/25/04

Campaign tuned to voices of minorities, Charleston Post & Courier, 1/25/04

Lights. Cameras. Democracy. by Andy Arnold

A Regular Guy by John G. Lee of Carolina Conservative (column on Edwards.)

Remaining Schedule:
1/28: John Edwards,
1/28: Wesley Clark, Charleston
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30:Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Previous Primary News update

Judgment Day ... for Pollsters and the Press

The last two days, the television media has been dominated by the story of Dean’s possible comeback in NH. The impetus for these stories was the Zogby Tracking polls which showed Dean pulling even with Kerry, statistically speaking. The problem that the big media didn’t seem to want to address was that several other tracking polls had very different forcasts. Almost all had Kerry’s margin of victory at +10 percentage points. The Boston Globe has Kerry up by 17% and the ARG has had Kerry with as much as an 18% lead over Dean as recent as yesterday. The reason for this huge discrepancy is that the Zogby poll that everyone has been citing factored in “leaners”, i.e. of the undecided who leans where. One the one hand this methodology can help to forcast where the undecided are going to fall in the critical moment, but on the other there is a certain risk in assuming that these “undecided” can describe which way they are truly leaning with any sort of accuracy.

Its important to note that Zogby’s latest tracking numbers do not factor in leaners and thus reflect similar percentages to the other tracking polls. This latest poll shows Kerry leading with 37% and Dean in second with 24%. That’s a pretty large margin.

The outcome of today’s contest will tell us something about the methodology of factoring in leaners and also about the ability of big media to take differring methodologies into account when reporting on polls.

Clark Takes Commanding Lead in NH Primary!

Well, okay, as of 1:11AM EST out of 24 Democratic Primary votes cast in Dixville Notch and Harts Location, Wesley Clark took 14 (58%), Kerry takes 8 (33%) Dean and Edwards both tie at 4 (17% each), Lieberman takes 1 (4%), while Kucinich and Sharpton draw a goose egg. It’s gonna be a long day. Go get some sleep, why don’t ‘cha?

(Numbers from The Concord Monitor)

S.C. Primary News 1/24

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
1:30 p.m.: Generation Dean Press Conference, Statehouse, Columbia
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Dan Hoover writes about the “enhanced political stature” of the campaign of John Edwards. A picture of Edwards in Columbia is also featured in the article.

Edwards appeared via satellite from his Columbia HQ last night on Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO.

An AP article also discusses Edwards in the state yesterday.

John Drake writes in The State today about the resurgence of Edwards’ campaign and the possibility of a Clyburn endorsement. Edwards also downplayed the Hollings endorsement of Kerry:

“I love Fritz Hollings,” Edwards said. “He’s a good man, but we learned in Iowa how much difference these endorsements make.”

Lee Bandy writes in The State today about Edwards, Kerry and Clark and their courting of swing voters.

The Greenville News has an expanded Election 2004 section which focuses on the Democratic Primary for now. The State features an Election 2004 also.

A New York Times article reprinted in the Post & Courier further discusses the revamping of the Kerry campaign in SC after the opinion of some Democrats that he ignored the state after officially kicking off his national campaign in Charleston.

An AP article by Jennifer Holland discusses the support Al Sharpton has in South Carolina.

Remaining Schedule:
1/27: 9 p.m., Blues Traveler concert for Wesley Clark (Clark will depart NH and arrive at the event later), Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday’s Primary News