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2004 US Presidential Election: Colorado
November 04, 2004All Politics Is Local - Dems Learn This LessonNot all politics is at the national level. Colorado Democrats figured that out this year and made a large impact in a “red state”. An impact that might be felt in future federal elections. What did they do? In a year dominated by the presidential election they poured their money into state-level elections. As a result they took over the Colorado state house and state senate. This was done with financing of four liberal donors to the cause - Pat Stryker, Jared Polis, Tim Gill, and Rutt Bridges. Together they contributed to the bulk of a $2 million fund that outspent their Republican counterparts 3-to-1. This money was enough to swing the Colorado House and Senate into Democratic control for the first time in decades. And this was done in a Red/Republican state. Now the Republican governor, a possible presidential candidate in 2008, must deal for the first time with a hostile legislature. Depending on how he handles this change of events, this could hurt his chances of succeeding in the 2008 presidential race. With their newfound power, there is the chance that the Democrats can establish a beach head that will allow them to control the gerrymander in Colorado, resulting from the 2010 census. While that may seem a long way out, the power of incumbency will ensure that this election will reverberate into future elections. Affecting both state and federal elections. George Soros spent over $20 million this year trying to affect the presidential election this year. It didn’t work, Bush was still reelected. Now suppose Soros had spent this same money trying to affect politics at the state level instead of the national level. He might have been able to affect several state houses and, ultimately, a few governorships - the best launching pads for Presidents (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter). So, will the Democratic party notice what happened in Colorado and replicate it in other states? Will the Republican party notice and adjust their tactics accordingly? I suspect the Republican party, awash with its national success, will see the Colorado results as an anomoly. I believe the Democratic party, even in its current state of upheaval, will learn this new lesson (at least in some states). The effects will be seen in the 2006 and 2008 elections. “So”, you say, it’s only local politics who cares? Realize this, a “Red State” now has two Democratic senators. Who do you think spent their money better this election season - George Soros or the four Colorado millionaires with much less money? Boulder County Still Counting BallotsAfter the ‘hanging chad’ issues of the 2000 election Boulder County in Colorado changed their balloting system. They decided that the most secure and reliable method would be to go to paper ballots. This was expected to be a little slower, but Boulder County election officials expected the counts to finish by late-morning on Wednesday. It’s now Thursday and they are still counting. This morning KOA radio reported that the $1.5 million scanning system couldn’t rotate the images. Staffing also became an issue. From the Boulder Daily Camera: A lack of staffing and poorly trained election judges appeared to slow the counting process. At about 11 a.m. Wednesday, with fewer than 40 percent of the total vote tabulated, several ballot-scanning machines sat idle as dozens of boxes of ballots waited to be counted. November 03, 2004A Missed Opportunity For CoorsFrom Denver’s Channel 4 (CBS): Salazar’s victory bucked a nationwide trend that gave the GOP at least 54 seats in the Senate, a net gain of four. “I can’t do more if I am not asked to do it,” Campbell said. Democratic Wave Of A Purple StateThe electoral news on the national front is obscuring the results, on the local level, in Colorado. Before the election, Republicans held the state senate by a slim 18-17 margin. It’s not too suprising to hear that the Democrats took one seat and regained the state senate. What is suprising is that house Republicans started yesterday with a 37-28 advantage and now they are a 34-31 minority (depending on final counts). This Red State has a Blue Legislature…and two ‘Blue’ senators. Colorado might be better described as ‘Purple’, not ‘Red’. So how did this happen in a state with more registered Republicans (37%)than Democrats (31%)? The two primary reasons are the independant nature of the Colorado Voter and poor management by the Republican party. Colorado is independent. In 1992, Ross Perot got 23% of the vote. In 1996, Dole won but over 140,000 votes went for third-party candidates. In 2000, almost 100,000 voters went for Ralph Nader. This state is used to voting “outside the party lines”. But ultimately it was bad management by the Republican party. Coors was the only Republican to lose a close senatorial election. Nationally, the other close races broke toward the Republicans. In Colorado Bush won with a margin twice that of his margin nationally. The Republican governor is very popular. Yet, the state house moves from a 9-point Republican advantage to a 3-point Democratic advantage. That can’t happen without mismanagement. Who’s to blame in the Republican party? I don’t know. One person who could pay the price is the Governor - Bill Owens. He’s on the mythical short-list of Republicans who might run for President in 2008. Some in the party might blame him for the losses within the state. But, now he faces a hostile legislature which will force him to issue more vetos and make more unpopular decisions. One thing I can tell you…the Colorado media has missed the story of the resurging Democratic party and the problems in the state Republican party. There are many stories here and they aren’t being told. Colorado WrapupFinal numbers are not in, but the major races and issues have been decided. President Senate Referendum 4A - FasTracks Referendum 4B - SCFD Funding Amendment 34 - Contractor Liability Amendment 35 - Raising Tobacco Taxes Amendment 36 - Electoral College Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy House District 3 House District 4 House District 6 House District 7 And in the undercovered story of the day… It looks like Democrats will gain control of both the state house and senate. In a state with a solid advantage in Republican registrations, this has to be considered something of an upset. It looks like Democrats had a much stronger ground game. November 02, 2004NBC Calls Senate Race For Ken SalazarIf this holds, and it looks like it will, the Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado. Salazars winning, losing in COKen Salazar [D] is winning by about four percentage points in the U.S. Senate race to fill the seat vacated by Ben Nighthorse Campbell [R]. His brother, John Salazar [D], is losing by about the same margin in the 3rd Congressional District. Colorado Voting UpdateUpdate on state candidate and ballot issues: Senate: Too close to call. Salazar has the edge House: Fox Reports No Lawsuits (So Far)No lawsuits, but there is a challenge going on in El Paso County by the Democrats and the Republicans challenged electioneering in Boulder County. This report mirrors what’s being said elsewhere in the media…overall voting has gone relatively smoothly. Voting Still Going On In ColoradoColorado rules state that anybody in line at 7pm will be able to vote. Channel 7 just reported that voting is still going on. The voting at 10th & Grant (Denver) is expected to continue until at least 8:30pm Amendment 36 - to split electoral votes - FAILS, per FoxOur local Fox affiliate, Channel 31, calls Amendment 36 a NO. This is the amendment that would split our electoral votes proportionately to the popular vote in Colorado. No SupriseAP is calling Amendment 36 - it’ll fail. Amendment 36 would have split Colorado’s electoral votes by percentage of the vote instead of “winner takes all”. This was expected to lose by a 2-to-1 ratio. Coors / Salazar - Keys To RaceSalazar’s campaign believes there are four key elements to their candidate’s victory. 90% Turnout In Some DistrictsKOA Radio just reported that some precincts are showing voter turnout near 90%. Record Early Voting In ColoradoAlso from Denver’s Channel 7: A spokeswoman for the Colorado secretary of state’s office said that nearly 850,000 people voted early or by absentee. That compares to more than 775,000 people who voted early in 2000. Lawyer Challenges ALL Republican VotersState GOP spokesman Peter DeMarco said a lawyer for the Democratic Party showed up at an Eagle County precinct with a list of registered Republican voters and a plan to challenge all of them. Democrats admitted it was true. Power Outage / 3-Hour Waits Hit Some PrecinctsRocky Mountain News reports on a few problems at the polls today… Some technical problems were reported in Arapahoe and Teller counties. Going To The PollsPolls in Colorado opened at 7am. I arrived at mine at 6:30am and there were only two people waiting in their cars (17 degree temperatures). I jumped in the line forming at the door at 6:57 and I was luck 13th in line. When the doors opened at 7am sharp the line had grown to 20 and quickly grew to 25. I was out of there in 24 minutes and voters were averaging of about 3 1/2 minutes behind the curtains. There were about 15 people in line when I left. All-in-all it went smoothly. It was “church-quiet” in line except for a few neighbors who knew each other. It appears my experience was the exception. One voter I spoke to went to vote at 7am and the line was 100 people long when they left. Long lines were everywhere. A number of people from Jefferson County commented that they did not get a “I Voted” sticker. They were quite disappointed! Some horns, no fingersI swung by my local polling place this morning - no lines, at least none that came out the door. Then I saw some college kids on the corner of a busy street waving Kerry signs, smack in the middle of my neanderthal Republican neighborhood. I heard a few supportive honks (obviously from furners just passing through), and saw no fingers or other rudeness. Hoorah! The day continues bright, cool, and cloudless. A beautiful day in the Mile High City, with just a touch of SocialismDenver gets over 300 days of sunshine each year. The cloud in front of this silver lining is an increased incidence of skin cancer: the absence of a full mile of bad-stuff-filtering atmosphere makes a difference. And it is sunny again today, not a cloud in the sky, which will probably make short work of what’s left of Sunday’s snow. My friends in the high country say they got a couple feet of the white stuff, and folks were slow getting to work yesterday. Here on the plains it was just enough snow to get your car filthy. More oddities on the Colorado ballot, in addition to a Dayhorse trying to replace Nighthorse: three different flavors of Socialists on the Presidential ballot - Socialist Workers, Socialist Equality, and plain vanilla Socialists. Go figure. If they can put aside their differences and unify into one giant socialist collective, rather than splintering the socialist vote this way, maybe they can garner a couple dozen votes statewide. Denver Charges Third Person In Vote FraudFrom the 9news website: Prosecutors say Herrera filled out voter registration forms using fake names, even though just above where he allegedly signed the forms, it states: “Warning, it is a crime to answer or affirm falsely as to your qualifications to register to vote.” Mayer Accused Of Stealing SignsIn Colorado last week a candidate’s wife was caught taking down the signs of their opponent. Now the Democrat mayor of Arvada has been caught on videotape taking down signs of Republicans. The mayor says he was taking down the signs that were posted in prohibited areas. Others say these signs were not violating Arvada laws. Moronski predicts...the SenateToday in political punditry from Sean Moronski, he casts an eye over the US Senate races. Every two years, approximately one-third of the U.S. Senate is up for grabs. Currently, the GOP has 51 seats to the Dems 49 (including the so-called “independent” from Vermont). In addition to help shape legislation and policy, this body is responsible for granting consent to judges, cabinet members, and other Federal officials. Given the potential for several Supreme Court appointments over the next several years, control of this chamber may shape the Federal Judiciary for the next generation. Almost every political observer believes the parties will swap seats in Georgia (to GOP) and Illinois (Dems win). Putting aside the non-competitive races, there are eight races that will determine control of the Senate - four in the South and four west of the Mississippi in GOP country. Of these seats, five are held by Democrats and three by Republicans. North Carolina. John Edwards chose to run for Vice President rather than face almost certain defeat facing reelection. The Dem nominee is Erskine Bowles, former Clinton Chief of Staff, who lost a tough fight in 2002 to Elizabeth Dole. U.S. Rep. Richard Burr has the GOP nod. Bowles had a solid lead for weeks, but the race has closed to even in this solidly pro-Bush state. South Carolina. After 36 years of serving as Strom Thurmond’s junior Senator, Ernest Hollings is calling it quits. Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint while the Dems are running State Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum. DeMint is running as a big Bush backer in this hardcore GOP state while Tenenbaum is downplaying any connection to Kerry or the national Democrat party. Probably a good strategy in a state Bush won’t lose. Florida. Another prominent Democrat, Bob Graham, decided to call it a career. The White House asked Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez to run. The Dem nominee is former State Education official Betty Castor. This big race has been the sideshow in the media’s non-stop examination of the Presidential race here. Louisiana. The wildest of wild cards with a unique open primary system that send the top two finishers regardless of party to a December runoff if no one candidate gets 50% plus one vote on Election Day. GOP candidate U.S. Rep. David Vitter is virtually assured of making the runoff, polling in the low to mid-40s. The race here is whether the national Democrats can prevent him from winning outright on November 2, as well as what Democrat would make a runoff. Louisiana has never elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, nor has one served from there since Reconstruction. South Dakota. Major race in a state with fewer than 800,000 people. Home of Senate Democrat leader Tom Daschle, promoting his role as provider of Federal largesse instead of being Bush’s chief opposition in Washington. Not unwise given that Bush is likely to win this state by at least 15 to 20 points. His GOP opponent, former U.S. Rep. John Thune, lost a Senate seat here in 2002 by fewer than 600 votes. Oklahoma. Surprise GOP retirement opened up safe seat in a sure Bush state. The GOP nominee, former U.S. Rep Tom Coburn, an obstetrician and anti-GOP establishment type, has made every mistake he can to turn a potential 25 to 30 point Bush lead into a horserace against the state’s lone Democrat congressman, Brad Carson. Colorado. Another GOP retirement put this seat in play. Democrats nominated State Attorney General Ken Salazar while the Republicans are going with Pete Coors (“cold filtered… not heat pasteurized”). Yes, that Coors. Rocky Mountain Cold. Alaska. In a word — nepotism. After being elected, new Governor Frank Murkowski had to appoint a successor to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated. Of course he chose his daughter Lisa, a state senator. This boneheaded move did the near impossible, creating a competitive U.S. Senate race in Alaska. The Dem nominee is former two-term governor Tony Knowles. This state has no business having a competitve statewide race in a presidential election year where Bush will win by 20+ points. Bottom line… Dems must win 7 of the 8 races to gain control, or 6 if Kerry wins and Edwards can make himself useful and break ties. All of these states were won by Bush in 2000, seven of them convincingly. It can go either way… predictions next week. Sean is a former YR Chairman and political hack that successfully domesticated himself recently. His keen eye for politics has not waned as yet. GOP Van Stolen, TorchedFrom KOAA : An investigation is underway after a van was allegedly taken from the El Paso County Republican headquarters. Blog The Inner Circle has a first-person report : The 96-Hour Campaign had rented several vans for Tuesday, to drive voters to and from the polls. They were all parked at the top level of the Kiowa St. parking garage near Bush/Cheney-Pete Coors headquarters. I, along with a few others, had decorated the vans with Bush/Cheney and Coors signs Friday night. They were left in those spots as we went home, since it was after midnight. Apparently one of the vans was not locked properly (we didn’t go into the vans to decorate them; we just taped signs onto the outside) and a group … stole it. November 01, 2004Like Nailing Jell-O To A TreeIn Colorado ballots vary from county to county. From the Ft. Collins Coloradoan: While many counties will use some form of electronic equipment this November, seven small counties will be hand-counting votes. Roughly 350,000 people are registered to vote in El Paso County, where Clerk Bob Balink ordered 582,655 of various types of ballots. Why so many? Cheney Visits Colorado SpringsVice President Cheney made a last minute stop in Colorado Springs earlier today. He’s racking up the frequent flyer miles…he started the day in Honolulu, HI. Dayhorse to replace Nighthorse?Colorado’s Senate race opened up last March when our unbeatable incumbent (and the only Native American in the Senate), Ben Nighthorse Campbell [R], decided to call it quits - to spend more time with his grandkids, no less, which is pretty typical of Ben’s values, and one of the reasons he was so well-liked here. One of the minor-party Senate candidates is registered on our ballots here as Douglas “Dayhorse” Campbell. He’s not showing up in the polls, but you’ve got to give it to the guy for creativity. Colorado: More on the Latest PollBelow, Dave posts the “final” poll results from Colorado concerning the races for President (Bush leading 52- 46%) and the Senate (Salazar (D) leading Coors ® 49 - 47%.) The same survey shows Amendment 36 (the initiative to split CO’s electoral votes in proportion to the popular vote) going down in flames: 32% Yes; 65% No. Every newspaper in Colorado has come out against Amendment 36, as have both Senate candidates. The poll was conducted by Survey USA, the same outfit that came reasonably close to correctly predicting the outcome of our 2002 Senate race. Many of the pollsters were dead wrong on that one, beyond the margins of error. Final Colorado Poll Shows Bush, Salazar LeadingThe results of the final ‘Survey USA’ poll of 622 likely voters (Colorado): President Senate Margin of error is +/- 4% Colorado Secretary Of State Leaves On Family EmergencyThis has not been an easy election cycle for Donetta Davidson. It just got a little worse… Davidson’s brother was in a motorcycle accident on Saturday and is in a coma at a Phoenix hospital. The election will be overseen by the deputy secretary of state and two election officials. Registered Voters in Colorado Increased 10%Colorado Daily Camera reports that Colorado has added about 300,000 new registered voters since January. This is an increase of about 10%. From the article: Statewide, Republican voter rolls grew by 83,078 people since January for a gain of 8 percent. Democrats added 94,956 voters, an 11.1 percent increase, over the same time period. Ready In Time?The Denver Post writes about the last-ditch efforts in Colorado to have the polls ready for action: According to a Denver Post analysis, registration duplicates - voters whose names appear more than once on the rolls - still could be as high as 68,000. Davidson’s office has forwarded those names to counties to consolidate their voter lists. Prepare the lawyers! October 31, 2004Colorado IntroductionHello from the swing state of Colorado! These are some of our key issues in this election: President - We are considered a swing state though the polls now show President Bush leading by a comfortable margin. (Colorado polls have been notoriously unreliable these last couple election cycles.) Senate: Coors vs Salazar - It’s been a close race between Pete Coors & Ken Salazar for the seat vacated by Sen. Ben Nighthorse Cambell. Polls show the Democrat, Ken Salazar, is leading. Amendment 36 - Would divide up the state’s electoral votes based on a percentage of the vote instead of the current winner-take-all system. This is expected to go down in flames. Amendment 37 - Would require utilities to generate a certain percentage of their power from renewable resources. There has been very little organized opposition to this proposed amendment. Referendum 4a - FasTracks. This would increase sales taxes in the Denver metropolitan area .4 percent to fund a $4.7 billion mass transit expansion. This is expected to pass as opponents to this referendum were heavily outspent. The two Denver papers were split in their recommendations on this referendum. More to come. |