The View From Australia

Nicholson of “The Australian” newspaper: www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au

Closing Prices in Australia

The betting on the US Election at Centrebet closes in a few minutes (so be quick!).

Latest Prices:

Bush    1.55
Kerry   2.30
Nader 501.00

AFP cites Redskins Legend, Tips Kerry

From the AFP via the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) :

George W Bush and John Kerry have entered the final day of the US presidential contest with the outcome balanced on a knife edge.

With at least five polls calling the contest a dead heat, the candidates will use the last full day of campaigning to make whirlwind trips to key marginal states.

The pair are pitching their plans to win the war on terrorism and to stabilise Iraq, seeking to sway remaining undecided voters.

Experts have predicted a high voter turnout for the election, which will decide the presidency and control of Congress.

Late polls gave Mr Bush, 58, a razor-thin nationwide lead but indicated the result in key swing states remained anyone’s guess.

Both parties are poised for a repeat of the intense legal battle that overshadowed the 2000 election in states where the result could be disputed.
[…]
The legend surrounding the Redskins’ last home game before election day is simplicity itself: if they win, the White House incumbent will remain president and if they lose, the incumbent loses.

The Redskins lost their match overnight and if tradition holds, this means President Bush is bound to lose the White House.

The sporting electoral barometer has held true for 80 years or 17 straight elections.

"Of Course We Back Bush" : Australian Foreign Minister

From The Australian :

It was inevitable the federal government would show support for its American centre-right counterpart in the lead-up to the US elections, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said today.

But while Prime Minister John Howard had a “very close relationship” with George W. Bush, the coalition would also work effectively with an administration led by Democratic challenger John Kerry, he said.

Mr Howard today came under attack from the opposition and Mr Kerry’s camp for his open support of George W. Bush ahead of tomorrow’s election.

Mr Howard last week said he hoped Mr Bush was re-elected because he had been a strong leader in the world fight against terrorism.

Labor said Mr Howard should not meddle in another country’s politics, while former Clinton adviser Kurt Campbell said it was inappropriate for Mr Howard to publicly wish for Mr Bush’s victory.

But Mr Downer tonight said the Howard government had “been very closely entwined” with the Bush administration for four years, and it was inevitable the coalition would support the Republicans.

“We are a centre-right government and so it’s not surprising that centre-right governments sympathise with other centre-right governments around the world in a very narrow, sentimental sense,” he said.

“But in practice governments operate on the basis of national interest.

“We had a good relationship with the Clinton administration, we have a good relationship with the Blair and Clark governments in Britain and New Zealand.

“If the administration changes in the United States we will work very well with the Kerry administration …”

Mr Downer said no damage had been done by the comments, and that the Kerry camp had bigger things to think about.

“… It’s a wonderful thing that of all the hundreds and hundreds of people who support Senator Kerry, we’ve found one (who objected),” he said.

“I suspect that Senator Kerry and his team will have many more electorally important things to think about than that right now.”

What The Australian Says

From the highly respected NewsCorp ( Murdoch-Fox ) broadsheet The Australian :
Malcolm Mackerras :

My key prediction in an article published in February this year was this: “On Monday, December 20, 2004, the Electoral College will meet and 327 votes will be cast for John Kerry and 211 for George W. Bush.”

The article went on to predict that the 327 votes for Kerry would be made up as follows:

“First, he will win 260 votes by carrying every state carried by Al Gore in 2000. Second, he will win 27 votes in Florida, four in New Hampshire, 11 in Missouri, 20 in Ohio and five in Nevada.”

Subject to a quite minor revision, that remains my forecast.

Malcolm Mackerras is one of the most respected electoral pundits in the country. He’s often spectacularly right, but when he’s wrong, he’s really wrong.

Roy Ecclestone has 2 bob each way :

Osame bin Laden’s shock injection into the US election campaign helps George W.Bush by putting terrorism back on centre stage – and John Kerry by reminding Americans the President has failed to eliminate public enemy No 1.

As does Ron Fournier :

US President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are virtually tied in the Electoral College count, fighting over eight to 10 states.

After months campaigning and about $US500m spent on attack ads, Mr Bush and Mr Kerry are still at the whim of unexpected events such as Osama bin Laden’s sudden emergence on Friday, a videotape appearance that sent both candidates scrambling to pledge victory in the fight against terrorism.

“Under normal circumstances, undecided voters break against the incumbent this late in an election. However, these are not normal circumstances. This is a time of war,” said Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell.

“The question then becomes, will this be different than most years? Will swing voters decide they don’t want to change horses in midstream?” he said.

Talking about which, interest is high on the great race on November 2nd :

Melbourne Cup outfits may need to be rethought tonight, as Irish trainer Dermot Weld looks to the heavens and prays for rain.

Showers are expected before the big race and Weld will only start Vinnie Roe if he judges the track soft enough tomorrow morning.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Geoff Kitchen said it would be fine early tomorrow morning in Melbourne but showers were expected later in the day.

Australian-based Internet bookmaker Centrebet has current odds of about 3:2 on Bush and 9:4 on Kerry, with 500:1 for Nader. There’s always an optimist.