Carteret County Resolution

The NC State Board of Elections has made a decision regarding the Nov. 2nd election problems in Carteret County, where a voting machine did not record thousands of votes. Memory set incorectly. They have "voted 4-1 to allow allow participation in the special  election by early voters whose ballots were lost, along with those  who did not vote Nov. 2."

By a 3-2 margin, board members initially
voted down motions to allow a revote by the Carteret voters whose
ballots were lost and to hold a new agriculture commissioner election
in that county.

Board members then voted 3-2 in favor of calling
a new statewide election for agriculture commissioner. But because four
votes were required for passage of that measure, it also failed.

That left the board at an apparent impasse and members called a recess. They
later returned and cast the final vote in favor of the special election
in Carteret County.

This is good news. No full North Carolina re-vote. Will only happen in Carteret County, and, in my opinion, that is the way it should be. Furthermore:

The board also rejected a protest over
ballots cast outside voters’ precincts and unanimously certified
Democrat June Atkinson as the winner of the race for state
superintendent of public instruction. Atkinson led her race by 8,535
votes over Republican Bill Fletcher.

However, it is going to be a long, drawn out court battle on that one.

Cross posted, no spin, same story, at the Pirate’s Cove.

Republican Dino Rossi Certified As Winner Of Washington's Gubernatorial Election

The Associated Press reports that Dino Rossi was certified as the winner of Washington’s race for governor, but the contest isn’t over:

“A recount is almost a certainty,” said Secretary of State Sam Reed, the state’s chief elections officer.

Reed declared Rossi defeated Democrat Christine Gregoire by just 42 votes out of 2.8 million cast. But on Friday, the Democrats are expected to request a hand recount of some or all of the ballots. That could extend the uncertainty until Christmas.

From California Yankee.

Tom Ridge Resigns - Updated

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge is resigning, FOX News confirmed Tuesday. He is expected to announce his decision at a 2:45 p.m. EST press conference.

In an e-mail circulated to senior Homeland Security officials, Ridge praised the department as “an extraordinary organization that each day contributes to keeping America safe and free.” He also said he was privileged to work with the department’s 180,000 employees “who go to work every day dedicated to making our company better and more secure.”

Government officials, speaking on grounds of anonymity because a formal announcement was pending, confirmed his resignation.

Ridge was responsible for the implementation of the Homeland Security Advisory System.

The Bush administration - since its Nov. 2 presidential election victory - has already accepted the resignations of Attorney General John Ashcroft, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Commerce Secretary Don Evans, Education Secretary Rod Paige, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham.

Update:

Among those mentioned as possible candidates for Ridge’s replacement are Bernard Kerik, interim Minister of the Interior for Iraq and former New York City police commissioner, former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Joe Allbaugh and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Mike Leavitt and White House homeland security adviser Fran Townsend. Others are also believed to be interested in the job, including Asa Hutchinson, undersecretary for border and transportation security in the Homeland Security Department.

Carlos M. Gutierrez Nominated For Commerce

The New York Times reports that President Bush nominated Carlos M. Gutierrez to be Secretary of Commerce:

President Bush on Monday nominated Carlos M. Gutierrez, among the most prominent Hispanic business executives in the United States, to be his commerce secretary, as the president continued with what Republicans said would be a broad overhaul of his cabinet.

Mr. Gutierrez, 51, has been chief executive of the Kellogg Company, the cereal maker, for more than five years, and has built a reputation as an innovative and forceful business leader with broad international experience. But he has little background in public policy, leaving him largely unknown in political circles and untested by the demands of a high-profile job in Washington.

“He understands the world of business, from the first rung on the ladder to the very top,” Mr. Bush said, with Mr. Gutierrez at his side in the Roosevelt Room at the White House. “He knows exactly what it takes to help American businesses grow and to create jobs.”

From California Yankee.

11/29 Irregularities roundup

David Cobb (G) and Michael Badnarik (L) have filed to recount NM and NV.

There’s a detailed count of the provisional OH ballots (not related to the OH recount) here.

The GAO has agreed to investigate election irregularities.

AP’s Ohio Election Still Contested

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Nearly a month after John Kerry (search) conceded Ohio to President Bush, complaints and challenges about the balloting are mounting as activists including the Rev. Jesse Jackson demand closer scrutiny to ensure the votes are being counted on the up-and-up.

Jackson held rallies in Ohio over the weekend to draw attention to the vote, and another critic plans to ask the state Supreme Court this week to decide the validity of the election…

(Same report here as “One Month Later, Fight Over Ohio Continues”; Keith Olbermann comments here.)

Olbermann’s previous report (11/21) includes the following concerning the Berkeley study:

…Meantime, The Oakland Tribune not only devoted seventeen paragraphs Friday to the UC Berkeley study on the voting curiosities in Florida, but actually expended considerable energy towards what we used to call ‘advancing the story’: “The UC Berkeley report has not been peer reviewed, but a reputable MIT political scientist succeeded in replicating the analysis Thursday at the request of the Oakland Tribune and The Associated Press. He said an investigation is warranted.”

In fact, he - MIT Arts and Social Sciences Dean Charles Stewart - said more than that. “There is an interesting pattern here that I hope someone looks into.” Stewart is part of the same Cal Tech/MIT Voting Project that had earlier issued a preliminary report suggesting that there was no evidence of significant voting irregularity in Florida. Dean Stewart added he didn’t necessarily buy the Berkeley conclusion - that the only variable that could explain the “excessive” votes in Florida was poisoned touch-screen voting - and still thought there were other options, such as, in the words of The Tribune’s Ian Hoffman “absentee voting or some quirk of election administration.”…

Also, a less biased source might want to investigate the claims made in “Voting Machines Count Backwards in Okla.”

And, from NE’s WOWT: “Sarpy County election officials are trying to figure out how they ended up with more votes than voters in the general election. As many as 10,000 extra votes have been tallied and candidates are still waiting for corrected totals… Johnny Boykin lost his bid to be on the Papillion City Council. The difference between victory and defeat in the race was 127 votes.” An interesting computer error may be involved.

Friends of John Kerry

The Boston Globe reports that John Kerry plans to set up a federal campaign committee, Friends of John Kerry, which would allow him to seek a fifth term in the US Senate in 2008 while not precluding another run for president that year.

The Committee will be a vehicle for fund-raising for either campaign.

According to the Globe, Kerry transferred all the money from his previous committee to his presidential campaign committee after retaining his Senate seat in 2002 and Kerry could do the same should he decide against seeking reelection in favor of a second bid for the presidency.

From California Yankee.

Elections Certified (mostly)

The State Board of Elections certified nearly all results from the Nov. 2 election on Tuesday, but withheld approval of the outcome of two statewide races that are the subject of protests.

In a five-minute teleconfernce, the board members signed off on the final results for scores of races, including President Bush’s victory over John Kerry and wins by Gov. Mike Easley and Richard Burr for U.S. Senate.

The board declined to make final the results in the races for agriculture commissioner and superintendent of public instruction. Also still pending are certified outcomes of two District Court races and one legislative race.

Here is the kicker:

Protest hearings on those and other contests have been set for Nov. 30. The elections board could call for a new election, either just in Carteret County or statewide, to resolve the disputed Council of State races. The board also could seek a re-vote by people in Carteret County whose ballots were lost.

A new election would not be held until late February at the earliest.

Considering that a new statewide revote would cost over $3 million, let’s go for a re-vote in only the disputed areas, particularly Carteret County. And, it looks like a re-vote will only include the positions that are disputed. It will not be a general election.

Cross posted (exactly the same, not spinning this, rather cut and dry) at me Dreadnaught.

Bush I Avoids Jet Crash

A private jet that was en route to Houston to pick up former President Bush clipped a light pole and crashed Monday as it approached Hobby Airport in thick fog, killing all three people aboard.

The Gulfstream G-1159A jet, coming into Houston, went down about 6:15 a.m. in an undeveloped area 1½ miles south of the airport, officials said. The former president had been scheduled to travel to Ecuador for a conference.

“I was deeply saddened to learn of the plane crash this morning,” Bush said through spokesman Tom Frechette. “I’d flown with this group before and know them well. I join in sending heartfelt condolences to each and every member of their families.”

Read more..

Academic Freedom?

From the Boston Globe:

SALISBURY, N.C. — A community college instructor who was suspended for showing “Fahrenheit 9/11” in class the week before the presidential election is offering no apologies and says he was unfairly punished.

Davis March showed the Michael Moore documentary critical of President Bush to his film class. Administrators pulled the plug on the movie with about 20 minutes left when March tried to show it to English composition students.

“This story is now about academic freedom . . . the movie is ancient history,” said March, who served a four-day suspension and returned Nov. 2 to Rowan-Cabarrus Community College, about 45 miles northeast of Charlotte.

School officials said March disobeyed orders by refusing to meet with administrators before showing the film, but March said no instruction to seek permission had been issued.

Was this even legal to show it? There is a disclaimer on the video that restricts “unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or exhibition of copyrighted motion pictures, videotapes, or videodisks.”

Cross posted with spin at me Corsair.

Berkeley researchers: "Irregularities May Have Awarded 130,000 - 260,000 or More Excess Votes to Bush"

From their press release:

Today the University of California’s Berkeley Quantitative Methods Research Team released a statistical study - the sole method available to monitor the accuracy of e-voting - reporting irregularities associated with electronic voting machines may have awarded 130,000-260,000 or more excess votes to President George W. Bush in Florida in the 2004 presidential election. The study shows an unexplained discrepancy between votes for President Bush in counties where electronic voting machines were used versus counties using traditional voting methods - what the team says can be deemed a “smoke alarm.” Discrepancies this large or larger rarely arise by chance - the probability is less than 0.1 percent. The research team formally disclosed results of the study at a press conference today at the UC Berkeley Survey Research Center, where they called on Florida voting officials to investigate.

The three counties where the voting anomalies were most prevalent were also the most heavily Democratic: Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, respectively. Statistical patterns in counties that did not have e-touch voting machines predict a 28,000 vote decrease in President Bush’s support in Broward County; machines tallied an increase of 51,000 votes - a net gain of 81,000 for the incumbent. President Bush should have lost 8,900 votes in Palm Beach County, but instead gained 41,000 - a difference of 49,900. He should have gained only 18,400 votes in Miami-Dade County but saw a gain of 37,000 - a difference of 19,300 votes…

ComputerWorld has a report similar to the press release here. The study gets dismissed here.

The study itself is available here. Perhaps someone who’s familiar with statistics can weigh in.

UPDATE: CalInsider publishes a reader email about the study here. Keith Olbermann discusses the study here.

UPDATE 2: Wired has a report including a few quotes here. The blog Who Really Won? is covering these topics. The 11/20 entry here (no permalink) raises potential problems with the study. This says the CalInsider letter is from Dafydd ab Hugh, an author. There’s a MetaFilter thread on the study here.

The study is discussed from a statistics perspective here; perhaps someone who’s familiar with the field could give a summary. That last link includes several other links, charts, etc.

Potential statistics-oriented problems are presented here, here, here, and here.

The AP’s report is “Academia still fixated on November 2”. CNET reports on two academics have different views of the study in “Report: Florida data suggests e-voting problems”

Specter Wins Judiciary Panel Chairmanship

Conservative Republican senators on Thursday unanimously supported moderate Republican Sen. Arlen Specter as the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, ending a grueling campaign Specter waged both publicly and privately to guarantee his seat.

The effort followed a weeks-long controversy that erupted when Specter made comments concerning judicial nominees that seemed to suggest President Bush would have a hard time getting his choices confirmed.

“Arlen Specter will be our next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. We are pleased to support Arlen in this matter,” said outgoing chairman, Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah.

Read more..

Just when you thought the election was over...

From Drudge: Ohio To Go Through Statewide Vote Recount After All

A statewide recount of the presidential vote appears inevitable after a pair of third-party candidates said they have collected enough money to pay for it.

The recount would be conducted after the election results are certified in early December.

Libertarian Michael Badnarik and the Green Party’s David Cobb said on Monday they raised more than $150,000 in four days, mostly in small contributions.

Ohio law requires payment of $10 per precinct for a recount, or $113,600 statewide.

Badnarik and Cobb said they aren’t trying to overturn President Bush’s 136,000-vote victory in Ohio, but just want to ensure that all votes were counted properly in the face of concerns about Election Day irregularities.

Turns out that the recount will cost the counties (and thus taxpayers) about $1.5 Million. Awesome!

Sarcasm aside, given 5.5 million votes in Ohio, it’ll cost each voter 27 cents (less when you consider that voters < taxpayers), I figure this is a reasonable amount to pay - as long as the process highlights the need for a more reliable, honest, and accountable voting system.

UC Berkeley To Challenge E-Vote In Florida

This from a PR agency email:

Here’s the story: A research team at UC Berkeley will report that irregularities associated with electronic voting machines may have awarded 130,000-260,000 or more excess votes to President George W. Bush in Florida in the 2004 presidential election. The study shows an unexplained discrepancy between votes for President Bush in counties where electronic voting machines were used versus counties using traditional voting methods. This is the first time that an academic institution has formally challenged the e-voting system, and the University is calling on local voting officials in Florida to investigate. The research team – which comprises some of the top minds in voter research – will disclose full results of the study and the raw data at the press conference tomorrow.

I’m not going to be able to make the press release, but we’ll try to have it covered …

Do Over!

It looks like there is a possibility that a faulty voting machine in Carteret County, NC (if you are looking at a map, it is a county just to the north of where Jacksonville, NC is) could cause a new state wide election:

Elections workers and reporters crammed themselves into a tiny storage room Tuesday and angled for their best views of a black metal box the size of a large briefcase.

And then they studied a three-word electronic message — “Voter log full” — that some in the room, deep down, had hoped wouldn’t appear.

The warning message indicated that a computer tallying votes in coastal Carteret County had reached its limit at 3,016 electronic ballots.

If only someone had seen the same message a few weeks ago, when the votes actually mattered.

Tuesday’s exercise was the latest in an investigation into an embarrassing, and possibly costly, voting problem. Because of problems with the county’s voting machine, North Carolina may have to hold another statewide election to pick an agriculture commissioner.

Should make those who are calling for recounts, and yelling “fraud!” on the leftist websites, such as the DU, mucho happy. But, and there is always a “but,” it seems like that most of the votes lost were Republican votes. Many have gotten a kick out of the company who made the faulty machine, UniLect Corp. Plus, it could cost $3+ million, and may include a full revote for all positions, including President, Senators, Gov, etc.

Cross posted with some spin over at me sloop, the Pirate’s Cove.

It's official, Dino Rossi has won

The closest governor’s race is now at end. The Secretary of State has certified Dino Rossi as the winner of the 2004 Governorship Election for the State of Washington. He won over Attorney General Gregoire (who works in Vancouver where I live) by 261 votes. Of course, under Washington State law if the vote is less than a 2,000 vote margin, there must be a mandatory recount. Now I’m expecting the Democrats in my state to get into a fit over this.

Meanwhile, I’m glad that Dino Rossi won. Because I know Gregoire’s reputation and it’s not that great to me. My friend used to work for her office and he was fired for wrong reasons. Thus giving me one of the reasons to vote against Gregoire for the Governorship. Plus the Democrats have too long controlled the governorship of Washington and I feel that there needs to be a change to a Republican Governorship which there hasn’t been one since 25 years ago.

Now, I would assume Lonewacko will go find some DU stuff about “Irregularities” in the Washington State Governorship. As I’m assuming he has the notion that all elections are perfect but 2004/0 and there has been no history of voter fraud. Psst, my mother works for the election in Washington State. And as evident by his blog, I’m assuming he’s going to keep doing the “Irregularities” post going until Bush is sworn in.

Funny thing about Washington’s Election was that Clark County had a history of voting for Democrats overwhelmingly over Republicans but this election proved that otherwise. Since that most Republicans are in the country area surrounding Vancouver/East Side vs the Democrats in the cities/North/West/South Side

2000 Election Locke won Clark County 54.2-43.3, Bush won 49.6-45.6
2004 Election (See Clark County)
Rossi won 52-44, Bush won 52-46

So it was quite a turnaround from a Leaning Democrat County to a Leaning Republican County.

11/18 Irregularities roundup

From the press release UC Berkeley Study Questions Florida E-Vote Count: Research Team Calls for Immediate Investigation

When: Thursday, November 18, 2004, 10:00 a.m. PST

What: A research team at UC Berkeley will report that irregularities associated with electronic voting machines may have awarded 130,000 - 260,000 or more excess votes to President George W. Bush in Florida in the 2004 presidential election. The study shows an unexplained discrepancy between votes for President Bush in counties where electronic voting machines were used versus counties using traditional voting methods. Discrepancies this large or larger rarely arise by chance — the probability is less than 0.1 percent. The research team, led by Professor Michael Hout, will formally disclose results of the study at the press conference.

See the link for the call in number.

Ohio provisional ballots seem legitimate: Of the 11 counties that have completed checking provisional ballots, 81 percent of the ballots are valid, according to an Associated Press survey Monday. Counties that have completed partial tallies also said most of the provisional ballots were being counted…

Ohio finds possible double votes, counts

Election officials in one Ohio county found that about 2,600 ballots were double-counted, and two other counties have discovered possible cases of people voting twice in the presidential election.

…[Sandusky County elections director Barb] Tuckerman believes the votes were counted twice when they were mistakenly placed alongside a pile of uncounted ballots. The room where the ballots were being fed into optical-scan machines on election night was so crowded that ballots had to be placed on the floor, Tuckerman said.

“It was totally hectic,” she said.

The problem was discovered when Tuckerman found that one precinct showed 131 percent of registered voters had cast ballots.

Lawsuit questions ‘discovery’ of 78,000 absentee votes in Broward

Opponents of slot machines at South Florida pari-mutuel venues have filed a lawsuit seeking an official recount of about 78,000 absentee ballots cast in Broward County on Amendment 4 in the Nov. 2 election.

The votes in question were counted late on election night after a glitch was discovered in the computers tallying absentees. About 94 percent of the new votes on Amendment 4 turned out to be “yes” and 6 percent “no” — an outcome No Casinos officials claim is a “statistical anomaly” that calls the count into question…

Bush won Iowa by 10,000 votes

“Vote fraud investigators visit Volusia [County FL]”: Representatives of a Seattle-based organization investigating possible election fraud visited the Volusia County elections department Tuesday after being provided reprints of voting machine records instead of originals. The reprints issue is explained in the “Volusia County on lockdown” section here.

From 11/1’s “Computer Chip Blamed For Voting Problem In Volusia County”: A computer chip is getting the blame for some voter problems in Volusia County. Those ballots will have to be re-fed. The defective chip was found Monday morning as poll workers fired up the machine for the last day of early voting… The chip was escorted by deputies to Daytona Beach and is in use right now.

Conspiracy Theories Abound After Election quotes a spokesman for a trade organization: “The fact is, electronic voting machines worked great … this is an enormous success story.” It also quotes John Fund of the WSJ: “There are 200,000 precincts in this country … there are going to be problems. You know, there was a computer in North Carolina that actually ate 4,500 votes… There are genuine problems but we shouldn’t be distracted, if we can, by Internet fantasists.”

Did lawyer-observers on Election Day miss fraud incidents? says Kerry lawyers were only trained to look for voter intimidation and similar incidents, not possible computerized fraud.

Justice through Music is offering a $100,000 reward for evidence of vote fraud. See the site for the fine print.

33,000 ballots lost in shuffle:

Voters in Utah County had more than a one in five chance that their ballots did not get counted in the initial, unofficial tally from Election Day.

A programming glitch in the punch-card counter dropped 33,000 ballots from the totals - all of them straight-party ballots. That was more than 22 percent of the 145,769 ballots cast in the Republican stronghold.

“The card readers were fine; it was just the way it was programmed initially,” Utah County elections coordinator Kristen Swensen said Friday. “It was just off by one letter.”

The ballots were recounted Wednesday and the 33,000 missing votes were distributed to the candidates for whom they were cast. Despite the large amount of votes involved, the goof - and subsequent fix - did not change the outcome in any race, Swensen said.

UM Regents results: off by two.

The University of Michigan Board of Regents results are wrong. The State of Michigan received wrong results from Washtenaw County. Washtenaw County inaccurately tallied the results of Ann Arbor’s Ward 5 Precinct 9.

This is because our County Clerk failed to modify electronically reported results based on improper writein votes. A larger problem is that Ann Arbor does not train election inspectors to look for such modifications.

I spoke about the votes in question here. (FYI, I spoke about the election experience here and here.) Here’s what happened:

• One voter did not quite understand the instructions. Instead of connecting arrows to the right of candidates’ names, (s)he crossed out entire candidate names. One of the lines (s)he drew to vote for a candidate in the right column strayed into an arrow in the center column. The arrow errantly marked indicated a vote for a writein candidate for UM Regent. That voter also selected two valid candidates in that vote-for-two office.
  
• The voter fed his/her ballot into the vote tabulator. The machine saw three votes in the vote-for-two category of UM Regent. It made a unique beep, spit the ballot back at the voter, and printed a message indicating that the ballot was overvoted for the office of UM Regent. We told the voter that s/he overvoted UM Regent and that the machine would not tally that office. We asked whether the voter would prefer a fresh ballot or would prefer to cast the ballot as-is. The voter chose to cast the ballot as-is. We pressed the “3” button on the keypad; the machine accepted the ballot and counted all the votes except for the UM Regent votes.
  
• Upon closing, a member-of-another-party and I studied the machine tape printout. We also examined all the ballots with writein votes. One of the ballots we studied was the ballot mentioned above. We determined that the machine saw three votes for UM Regent on that ballot. We noticed that one of the overvotes was for an invalid writein candidate. As per Michigan Law (in the Special Handling section, near the bottom), we “undid” that writein vote. We noted that the machine was wrong; the ballot was not overvoted. We wrote “+1” on the official machine tape printout next to the names of two candidates selected by that voter.
  
• We sealed everthing up and delivered our materials to City Hall. The City Clerk sent the tape to the County Clerk.
  
• The County Clerk’s office loaded the electronic results from our machine’s memory pack. They modified those electronic results based on the “+1”s on our tape printout. They failed to notice our manually written “+1”s in the office of UM Regent.
  
• The County Board of Canvassers examined our tape. They certified the election without catching the County Clerk’s omission.
  
• The county sent the incorrect results to the state.
  

Two votes may not seem like much, but to me these two votes are symptomatic of a structural flaw in the system which needs to be corrected.

One structural flaw is at the precinct level. Election day is long enough as it is, and election inspectors make enough mistakes without having to examine writein votes. The city did not train us to examine them October 28 and likely will not train us to examine them in the future. My guess is that Ann Arbor tallies were off by 200-250 votes. IMO, barring a change in the law, I would expect this error to continue.

Note: this is 200-250 total votes. Many of these “lost” votes canceled each other out. Many of these are probably in offices where the incumbent ran unopposed. Further, I arrived at the 200-250 estimate by multilpying the number of precincts in Ann Arbor, 48, by the number of write in votes we found, 5. If other precincts did look for invalid writeins, this number is overstated.

Another structural flaw is at the county level. I spoke with people in the County Clerk’s office. They examined the official tape marked with the “+1”s and agreed that the results were off. (They also printed out a copy of my most recent Command Post post to assist their efforts.) IMO, I expect them to change their procedures to guard against such mistakes in the future; this may prompt Ann Arbor to change their policies.

Warren Mitofsky Confirms "No Evidence" of Voter Fraud

Today at Colby College, Mayflower Hill conducted an exclusive interview with Warren Mitofsky— one of the architects of the National Election Pool Exit Polls— about the questions surrounding this year’s numbers, leaks to bloggers, computer voting machines that don’t leave paper trails, and more.

What is important is that Mitofsky puts the conspiracy theories to rest by declaring- categorically- that after extensive analysis, he believes his numbers were off and sees NO EVIDENCE of systematic voter fraud.

The full interview is here.

Mystery Pollster is also covering Mayflower Hill’s interview here.

Kerry Campaign Slammed On Hispanic Outreach

The Associated Press reports that Simon Rosenberg, founder and president of the centrist New Democrat Network says, “John Kerry did not compete adequately for Hispanic votes, period. If we don’t reverse the gains that President Bush made, we can forget our hope of being a majority party again.”

Rosenberg also complained that “the Kerry campaign and the DNC lacked a national strategy for Hispanics and did not spend enough money on advertising or enough time campaigning in Hispanic communities and did not employ enough people on the get-out-the-vote effort.”

From California Yankee.

Bush Chooses Spellings as Education Secretary

President Bush has tapped another Texan to be his education secretary.

Bush on Tuesday chose Margaret Spellings, his domestic policy adviser, to succeed Rod Paige as head of the Education Department, administration officials said.

Spellings, a graduate of Houston’s Sharpstown High School and the University of Houston, was a major force behind the No Child Left Behind Act, the president’s first big domestic legislative victory.

Spellings, 46, has worked for the president since 1994, when he was running for governor of Texas. She served as his senior adviser for six years and was responsible for developing and implementing his education policy. That policy later became much of the groundwork for the No Child Left Behind legislation.

Spellings took her first political job in 1980, when she worked on the failed presidential campaign of former Texas Gov. John Connally.

Read more…

It's Official: Rice Tapped for Secretary of State - Updated

Condoleezza Rice will be nominated to lead U.S. diplomatic efforts during President Bush’s second term, replacing Colin Powell as secretary of state, FOX News has confirmed.

An official announcement from Bush himself was expected at 12:30 p.m. EST Tuesday.

Powell announced his resignation on Monday, saying he had never intended to stay more than one term but would stay on until a replacement was named.

Updates after the press conference

Update:

President Bush this afternoon officially nominated Condoleezza Rice, his national security adviser and a longtime confidante, to replace Colin Powell as secretary of state.

“During the last four years, I’ve relied on her counsel, benefited from her experience and relied on her sound and steady judgment,” Bush said in announcing the nomination Tuesday at the White House.

Counting Questionable Ballots

From WRAL:

Election officials began the tedious task of looking at questionable ballots from Tuesday’s election by hand on Thursday.

The ballot instructions showed voters how to complete the arrow on the ballot, but hundreds of people scribbled dots, drew double lines or put the line in the wrong place. The voting machines could not read those ballots.

Interesting question: if the instructions weren’t followed, should they be counted. I know my opinion, but posts are no spin.

11/15 Irregularities roundup

The Greens have raised enough money to recount Ohio (also here).

11/11: 2 N.C. candidates request recount: “Feds to check out flaws in Mecklenburg, other N.C. counties”

How to Hack the Vote: the Short Version gives step-by-step directions, including screen shots. See also the pre-election Scientists worry about reliability of e-voting.

The NYT editorial “About Those Election Results” (also here) discusses various problems with eVoting, mentions the blogosphere, and suggest reforms to make the process more trustworthy.

There’s a 10Meg video of Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) and the NYT’s John Schwartz on Charlie Rose here. Nadler was one of the congressmen who sent the letter to the GAO requesting an investigation of voting irregularities.

This unconfirmed report on Taos County, NM says: For the early voters on the paper trail/optical scanner machine, 100% of the voters cast a vote for President. For the Election day voters on the no-paper-trail machine, 14+%, about one in 7, showed no vote for president…

Warren County, Ohio is reportedly doing a recount. This was the county that prevented reporters from observing the initial ballot counting due to a supposed terrorism threat.

On 11/5, the AP reported 22 voting machines have less-than-intact seals: seals were missing or broken on 22 impounded voting machines… This is for a NY state Senate race in Yonkers between powerful incumbent Republican Sen. Nicholas Spano and Democrat Andrea Stewart-Cousins in the 35th District… On 11/9 came As Voting Machines Are Checked, Spano’s Lead Shrinks. On the same day came With most machines recounted, Spano trails Democrat. On 11/13 came “Spano maintains lead over Stewart-Cousins in 35th District”. The counting continues.

In Keith Olbermann news: he gets dissed here; includes a few additional links. See also Keith Olbermann’s Dan Rather moment. Olbermann reports on his supposed firing here.

Sources: Condi to Replace Powell

White House officials said Monday they expect President Bush to name Condoleezza Rice to replace Colin Powell as secretary of state, sources told FOX News on Monday night.

If nominated and confirmed, Rice would be the second woman and the second African American to be the nation’s top foreign policy representative.

Changes to Bush’s cabinet:

RESIGNED OR EXPECTED TO RESIGN

Secretary of Agriculture
Ann M. Veneman

Secretary of Commerce
Don Evans

Department of Justice
John Ashcroft

Secretary of Education
Rod Paige

Secretary of State
Colin Powell

Secretary of Energy
Spencer Abraham

Secretary of Health & Human Services
Tommy Thompson

Source: Fox News

Sources: Powell Resigns - Three Other Cabinet Members to Resign [Updated -4-]

Breaking on Fox:

Secretary of State Colin Powell announced his resignation to his staff during their Monday morning meeting, a State Department source told FOX News.

President Bush is expected to make the official announcement. The source suggested that Powell is likely to stay in place until a replacement is confirmed.

More details as we get them.

Update:

Powell reportedly handed in his resignation Friday. But the president has not yet accepted his resignation.
CNN reported that there is a lot of speculation that Condoleezza Rice will be offered Powell’s position.

More:

The White House was preparing an announcement to confirm Powell’s resignation. According to one official, Powell expects that his departure date will be sometime in January. It was not immediately clear whether he will leave before Bush’s second inauguration on Jan 20.

Most of the speculation on a successor has centered on U.N. Ambassador John Danforth, a Republican and former U.S. senator from Missouri.

Update:

Various other news services reported that Agriculture Secretary Anne Veneman, Education Secretary Spencer Abraham and Education Secretary Rod Paige had also told President Bush of their intentions to leave the administration.

Update:

This makes it look pretty definite that all those mentioned will be resigning.

More here…

North Carolina, Meet Florida

From WRAL.com:

A Florida-style nightmare has unfolded in North Carolina in the 10 days since Election Day, with thousands of votes missing and the outcome of two statewide races still up in the air.

The fiasco has not reached the proportions of what happened in 2000 in Florida — in part because the presidential race was not close here. But election observers say North Carolina has been the site of some of 2004’s worst problems. (empasis mine)

The biggest failure resulted from a computer glitch that wiped out more than 4,400 votes in one county, while other disputes have focused on how to count provisional ballots. In another county, 12,000 early and absentee votes were misplaced due to a procedural error, but later found.

Federal authorities said they plan to look into what happened in two counties that have had the most severe breakdowns.

Might want to check WRAL’s politics section, lots of interesting stuff on the recounts and who is effected. Nothing is being mentioned that would affect the National or Governor counts, though.

Republicrescendo

After four years as education secretary, bringing President Bush’s signature law on education to classrooms across the nation, Rod Paige plans to leave the cabinet in the near future, administration officials said Friday.
..following the resignations of Attorney General John Ashcroft and Commerce Secretary Donald L. Evans earlier this week.

Is this a build up to the resignation of the only respectable figure on the cabinet, Colin Powell? It seems he has been awfully busy for a man about to leave, with a rencent trip to Asia and regular interviews ( most recently ) with Arab journalist, Powell’s agenda is now lined up with
plans to meet with the new Palestinian leaders soon.

Recently with the power of a phone call to Mexico’s left Presidential runner

Powell’s tacit seal of approval will help López Obrador undermine his critics’ assertions that he is an irresponsible leftist populist.

Powell is Bush’s man of the world, in my view it would be fitting that he eventually leave. He is too good of a man who has earned too much respect to be associated with such a crowd, but on the other hand I feel a lot more comfortable with Powell keeping an eye on Bush, its a real quagmire.

There needs to be a debunking of Voting Irregularities.

Now Lonewacko wants to debunk this article by saying he’s a Newsmax editor. However the man does have good points. With the election over now and President Bush is still clearly the winner of the 2004 Election, Democrats left and right have been coming up with accusation except for one thing they lacked. Which Howard Troxler points out: Evidence.

Lonewacko wants Kerry President as evident in his blog however I still stand with the stance that Kerry conceded and lost the election to a War Incumbent which no President has ever been voted out during a war (Jefferson [Tripoli War], Madison [War of 1812], Lincoln [Civil War], Roosevelt [World War II], Johnson [Vietnam War]). Kerry also lost to a President that won by more than 3.9 million votes and 286 electoral votes. Especially the fact that the last 3 Democrat Presidents (Arkansas, Texas, Georgia) came from the South which Democrats are saying “Forget the South, we can win without them”. One thing has been put to rest. The Redskin Football game which they lost and the incumbent should lose, Bush won.

I’ll mention a couple strong points from the article I linked.

CLAIM: Kerry really won Ohio.

There are still 155,000 or so uncounted provisional and absentee ballots. If by some miracle Kerry got almost all of them, he would win. A miracle.

Furthermore, there also were 93,000 “spoiled” ballots in Ohio that, had they gone to Kerry by a miraculously large margin . . . uh, well, still wouldn’t have been enough. By the way, there were fewer undervotes and overvotes than in 2000.

CLAIM: A machine in Franklin County, Ohio, recorded an extra 3,893 votes for Bush.

This is perfectly true, and one of at least two serious machine mistakes around the country. When the results cartridge of an older-generation machine was plugged in to the counter, it reported almost 4,000 extra votes for Bush, when only 638 people had voted in the precinct.

At the risk of being labeled part of the plot, I want to point out that they caught this obvious mistake. You can’t “stuff’ the ballot box. There is a signed, independent record of how many people voted.

And Kerry conceded in the election and there is no way he can get the Presidency even if Kerry won by some miracle. When Inauguration Day comes, the voting irregularity will simply fade away.

Interesting thing I heard today, in Ohio, provisional ballots matter for Kerry but apparently in Washington, those provision ballots didn’t matter for the Democrat Candidate Gregoire. So those provisional ballots were thrown out by a judge which the Democrat Party contested and took to court which they won. Since that Gregoire is losing by a slim margin of 2,000+ to Dino Rossi and is expected to increase as more provisional ballots gets counted. Oh Washington Government is the source of the votes counted which is accurate. If you’re looking at USA Today, Fox News, or CNN, they’re outdated

You be the judge.

11/13 Irregularities roundup

From 11/13’s “State election officials approve Nader recount”: State election officials agreed Friday to a last-minute recount of the presidential race requested by Ralph Nader. Nader asked for a recount in 11 wards last week…Nader spokesman Kevin Zeese said the campaign would consider requesting additional recounts after reviewing the results of the initial 11. (A “ward” appears to correspond to a precinct or similar, not a county.)

From “Democrat wins council seat after election error corrected”:

A Democrat gained enough votes to bump a Republican from victory in a Franklin County Council race after a recount prompted by a computer glitch in optical-scan voting.

The glitch in the Fidlar Election Co. system had recorded straight-Democratic Party votes for Libertarians and vice versa.

…No programming problems were found in Fidlar’s optical scan Accuvote 2000 ES system, said Dana Pittman, an account manager for the Rock Island, Ill.-based company.

However, Fidlar also is verifying programming of its optical-scan equipment in Wisconsin and Michigan, which, like Indiana, have straight-party voting, Vern Paddock of Fidlar technical support told the Palladium-Item of Richmond.

The Franklin County problem does not call into question any results in Wisconsin or Michigan, Bill Barrett, national sales manager for Fidlar, told The Associated Press on Friday.

…Kate Shepherd, a spokeswoman for the Indiana secretary of state’s office, said the state Election Division was aware of the vote-counting problem in Franklin County. She said tests with Fidlar’s optical-scan equipment before the election found no problems.

And, from Fidlar admits election blip: …Fidlar officials went to Franklin County on Wednesday to assist in a recount and told Flaspohler a programming error was the culprit. After adjusting the program, the ballots were run again, and more than 600 votes that previously went to Libertarians were added to Democratic tallies…

This post contains several links about possible voting fraud from the 1980’s. That links to 11/9’s “Carteret ballots are gone forever”: The problem was blamed on misinformation supplied by the manufacturer. Unilect told elections officials that the early voting unit’s storage capacity was 10,500 votes when, in fact, the actual limit was 3,005. On Nov. 6, Carteret Board of Elections Chairman L.E. Pond said all early votes cast after No. 3,005 were lost… Pond also said the problem could have been avoided with a single keystroke of the county’s central computer, which would have increased the storage capacity. Elections officials attributed that mistake, too, to Unilect. UniLect, which acknowledged the problems, said this is the first time any of its customers has lost votes in an election - and, further, that the equipment operated just as it was set up to do…

11/9’s “Voter fraud uncovered in New Mexico” discussed several instances of double voting and other forms of fraud in Bernalillo County. On Friday, that county’s results were certified: …[after the certification] the president retains a statewide lead of 6,120 votes in an Associated Press unofficial tally late Friday that did not include final numbers from a few other counties.

To put some perspective on Howard Troxler’s “Internet post-election rumors missing one little thing: evidence” (also here as “‘Bush Stole Election’ Conspiracy Theories Debunked”), he’s also the author of July 25, 2004’s “Touch screen opponents are great at ignoring facts”. On the other side, see “Worst Voter Error Is Apathy Toward Irregularities”

On the completely unconfirmed and quite possibly wrong side, see: “Unofficial Audit of NC Election: Comprehensive Case for Fraud” and “Bush stole Ohio through absentee ballots”.

And, from Broward County 11/13: “Inquiry urged after 30 voters tried to cast ballot twice”

(Lonewacko comments: Anyone who attempts to completely dismiss the possibility of fraud committed through eVoting probably isn’t a computer programmer.)

GOP Headquarters vandization Con't

From WRAL:

RALEIGH, N.C. — One of the people accused of vandalizing the GOP headquarters in Raleigh is out of jail.

Vanessa Zuloaga was released on a $50,000 bond from the Wake County Jail.

When some of the other Raleigh area news sites provide a bit more info, I will update this post. Any update will be in the evening.

Prozac, anyone?

Others have blogged about this happening in other parts of the country, now we have "support groups" and therapy for the "anybody but Bushers," now we have it in the Triangle.

In fact, group therapy may be on the way.

Irene Kennedy, a Raleigh clinical social worker, is trying to assemble a support group for pained voters who cannot seem to move beyond the loss of their candidate, John Kerry.

"If you’re starting fights with people in the supermarket, you have to stop and think, ‘What’s going on?’ " Kennedy said. It’s Election Day plus 10. If your side lost and you are still feeling angry, sad or bewildered, take heart: You have lots of company.

I have removed the spin from the post I wrote on my blog. This is a no spin zone at the Command Center Election 2004. Ok, just a little spin. Even the N&O knew what this election was about:

Radios are tuned to music, not talk. Newspapers with front-page pictures of the victor get flipped over quickly to hide what those in the anybody-but-Bush crowd refer to as “that smug mug.”

Cross posted at the Pirate’s Cove, where I spin like a top.

Posted by Porter G at 07:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

11/12 Irregularities roundup

“Washington Post’s Sloppy Analysis” takes issue with “Latest Conspiracy Theory — Kerry Won — Hits the Ether”.

There’s a brief interview with a Cincinnati Enquirer concerning Warren County Ohio here. All of that information appears to have already been covered in that reporter’s article.

The NYT’s “As Fast as Blogs See Vote Fraud, Web Is Proving Rumors Wrong” is mainly a “wacky bloggers with wacky theories” piece.

The Caltech-MIT/Voting Technology Project has a few reports on the 2004 elections which have been referenced elsewhere including in the last article. Unfortunately, as discussed here, they appear to be advocates for electronic voting or they at least have such articles at their site.

The PDF at “The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy” by Steven F. Freeman, PhD apparently attempts to answer the exit poll report from the latter source.

“Glitch causes Franklin Co. [IN] recount:” Election equipment counted straight-party votes for Democratic candidates as Libertarian votes, an error that could affect election outcomes in as many as nine counties, the Richmond Palladium-Item reported today.

(Editorial content: The Caltech-MIT group appears to be located somewhere on the continuum between impartial observers and a trade group. I only looked through a few things on their site, but I only saw the upside of eVoting. I’d imagine within a 1 mile radius of Caltech there are hundreds of hackers who could spend all day thinking up ways to hack into eVoting, and I didn’t see anything about, for instance, security at the Caltech-MIT site. The report Voter Verifiable Audio Audit Transcript Trail by one of their principals makes the suggestion that a three-head tape recorder should be used as part of the audit trail of voting machines. One can only imagine all the problems inherent in this idea. Jammed tapes, tapes having to be changed, tapes being recorded over, tapes not being changed when they had to be, poll workers forgetting to put the tape in, poll workers running out of tape, the cost of the tape, transporting, cataloging, and archiving the tapes, copying over the tapes on a yearly basis to guard against deterioration, putting the wrong type of tape in, the mechanism not working, the power plug to the mechanism failing, the mechanism spontaneously combusting… you get the picture.)

11/11 Irregularities roundup, Part 2

From today: Kerry campaign lawyers checking Ohio vote. According to Kerry’s Ohio counsel: “[this is a] fact-finding mission… We’re not expecting to change the outcome of the election…” And: “Green & Libertarian Presidential Candidates to Demand Ohio Recount”

This unconfirmed report says:

Are the provisional ballots in Ohio being thrown out? A new rule for counting provisional ballots in Cuyahoga County, Ohio was implemented on Tuesday, November 9 at approximately 2:30 in the afternoon, according to election observer Victoria Lovegren.

The new ruling in Cuyahoga County mandates that provisional ballots in yellow packets must be “Rejected” if there is no “date of birth” on the packet. The Free Press obtained copies of the original “Provisional Verification Procedure” from Cuyahoga County which stated “Date of birth is not mandatory and should not reject a provisional ballot.” The original procedure required the voter’s name, address and a signature that matched the signature in the county’s database…

Changing the rules after the election might be a violation of state or federal law. Yesterday’s “Even without national scrutiny, counting Ohio’s provisional ballots a tough job” has more on the counting, but doesn’t mention the supposed new rule.

That pesky 16-bit bug has unconfirmed instances of “short vs. long” overflows previously described here. These concern Franklin County, Ohio rather than Broward County as did the other suspected incident.

For big media coverage, see 11/09’s “Election conspiracy theories persist”, 11/10’s generally content-free “Ignore voting conspiracies and move on” and 11/11’s “Internet post-election rumors missing one little thing: evidence”. The latter discusses specific claims, some of which have been shown to be false and some true. This Hardblogger post discusses exit polling and rehashes yet again the Dixiecrat effect previously shown here in table form. Wired News also has several articles in this category.

Paige plans still in the air - Education chief hasn't told friends or staff if he will resign

HOUSTON CHRONICLE: Paige plans still in the air - Education chief hasn’t told friends or staff if he will resign

When former Houston schools Superintendent Rod Paige accepted President Bush’s offer to join his Cabinet as education secretary four years ago, he told friends he didn’t want to work past his 70th birthday.

Now 71, Paige has kept quiet about whether he’ll join the list of Cabinet members who won’t be around for Bush’s second term.

Bush has asked Cabinet members to let him know whether they plan to stay by week’s end, and some of them, including Attorney General John Ashcroft and Commerce Secretary Don Evans, have resigned.

Paige’s friends in Houston said Wednesday they wouldn’t be surprised to see Paige back in town soon, since he’s accomplished his mission of implementing the controversial No Child Left Behind Act.

“If I were him, I would,” said Don McAdams, who along with Paige served on the Houston school board that ushered in the reforms that led to No Child Left Behind.

Technically, he could take his old job back at HISD…

UPDATE:
Rumors have been that he is leaving, official announcement to follow shortly.

Clinton Blames Gay Marriage For Kerry's Loss

The Utica Observer Dispatch reports that former president Clinton put much of the blame for Kerry’s loss on gay marriage:

“Gay marriage was an overwhelming factor in the defeat of John Kerry,” Clinton told the audience at the Margaret Bundy Scott Field House.

[. . .]

“There was astonishing turnout among evangelical Christians who were voting on the basis of moral values,” he said. “I do not believe either party has a monopoly on morality or truth.”

Clinton said Democrats had a story to tell about abortion and gay marriage. They didn’t tell it. Abortions declined during his terms in office, he said, because of policies encouraging adoption and rewarding mothers.

Democrats should have emphasized that gay marriage should be up to the states — and that state sovereignty is a traditionally Republican value.

“Gay marriage was an overwhelming factor in the defeat of John Kerry,” Clinton said. “With one decision of one Supreme Court, all of the sudden we have a constitutional amendment designed, I think, to whip people up, to inflame them, make them stop thinking about other issues.”

From California Yankee.

11/11 Irregularities roundup

The WaPo’s Latest Conspiracy Theory — Kerry Won — Hits the Ether attempts to pour some cold water on the various conspiracy theories. Tenor sample: Even as Sen. John F. Kerry’s campaign is steadfastly refusing to challenge the results of the presidential election, the bloggers and the mortally wounded party loyalists and the spreadsheet-wielding conspiracy theorists are filling the Internet with head-turning allegations.

CBS’s Dem Reps Seek Election Review mentions the letter from Democratic congressmen described here and the “Reagan Democrats,” described here using the “Reagan Difference” as well as ballot spoilage.

Ann Coulter attempts to discredit Keith Olbermann’s reports here. As with other attempts to discredit his reports, the “Reagan Difference” is involved.

The column “Hackers rigging voting machines a real possibility” discusses the questionable reliability of eVoting and has some words for those who want to sweep this issue under the rug.

Curious voting totals in Cuyahoga County Ohio are said to be innocuous in “Cuyahoga board deflates vote suspicions”. Someone who purports to be a former Board of Elections official in that county says he’s examined the data and agrees that while Cuyahoga’s way of representing data is confusing, the numbers do add up.

However, questions (and more questions) remain.

Aaron Brown of CNN reportedly says that one of the problems in Cuyahoga was due to a data input error, which doesn’t fit the other explanation offered by the county.

And, “Ohio honchos are trying to figure out how to suppress the facts” has an unconfirmed and possibly innocent report on a conference call held by elections officials in Ohio.

Also see Losing by 335,000 in N.H., Nader Demands a Recount. Apparently the Green Party will announce their plans for a recount as well.

From “State Police investigating voter fraud”: New Mexico State Police are investigating allegations of voter fraud – including one instance in which an as-of-yet unnamed woman is being connected with up to 200 bogus ballots…

47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly discusses the exit polls in swing vs. non-swing states.

Links to Keith Olbermann’s 11/10 broadcast on voting irregularities and other broadcasts are here.

And, see the unconfirmed “Al Franken mentioned 20,000 votes wrongfully going to Kerry in N.C.”

(Suggestion: what’s really needed here is some way to organize all these reports and rank them by severity and credibility. So, the problems in Cuyahoga county could be ranked by how many votes might have been affected and by whether the explanation offered holds up to scrutiny. This would require the assistance of impartial experts in political science, statistics, and other fields. That way, unconfirmed reports of two people not being able to vote would sink and verified reports of thousands of votes having been lost would rise. Without something like this, anyone who looks into this is going to soon suffer from information overload.)

The Race for the Governorship of Washington

Well, I’m a resident of the state of Washington yet I live in Idaho for college (Brigham Young University-Idaho). I’ve been paying attention to the governorship of Washington. Currently Dino Rossi is up by 3,500+ votes. The last 5 days before yesterday, Gregoire was winning by 10,000+ votes plenty of times and I thought the race was over. But until yesterday, Dino Rossi was up by 2,000+ votes and now he’s at 3,500+ votes. This is a close election that’s still on-going.

Who did I vote for? I voted for Dino Rossi so I’m hoping he wins.

Stay tuned

11/10 Irregularities roundup, Part 2

Salon (“Was the election stolen?”) and the Boston Globe (“Internet buzz on vote fraud is dismissed”) offer similar articles. They both discuss the buzz about voting fraud, discuss the current known problems, and come to the conclusion that while problems occurred there’s no evidence of widespread fraud that would tilt the election the other way. This blog, this, and this all take generally the same tack.

UPDATE: The Wikipedia entry on 2004 irregularities is here. Note the disclaimer and the talk page about the entry itself.

“Warren Co. defends lockdown decision” includes this FBI quote: “The FBI did not notify anyone in Warren County of any specific terrorist threat to Warren County before Election Day.” See this for the previous coverage of Warren County Ohio’s decision to bar reporters from viewing the counting of the votes in that county.

Keith Olbermann says he will have more coverage of these issues tonight.

(Editorial note: Some Kerry partisans outright claim there was fraud. Some Bush partisans outright claim there was no fraud. In any case, voting machines shouldn’t count backwards. All of these instances of possible voting fraud or error need to be thoroughly investigated. Those who attempt to sweep this under the rug might end up on the other side of a future election, so it’s in everyone’s best interest to carefully examine all cases of potential fraud or error.)

Tenncare is history!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
NOVEMBER 10, 2004

STATE MOVES TOWARD MEDICAID
‘PERSISTENT LAWSUITS’ BLOCK TENNCARE REFORM EFFORT

NASHVILLE — Governor Phil Bredesen today announced the State of Tennessee has set in motion a process to dissolve TennCare, the state’s financially troubled $7.8 billion healthcare plan, pending final discussions with public-interest attorneys. The process will replace TennCare with a traditional Medicaid program similar to what’s currently offered in more than 40 other states.

“TennCare is a noble and worthwhile initiative that has made significant contributions to public health in Tennessee,” Bredesen said. “Over the past year, we’ve made every possible effort to preserve the program. But persistent lawsuits have tied our hands. The sad reality is, we can’t afford TennCare in its current form. It pains me to set this process in motion, but I won’t let TennCare bankrupt our State. This is the option of last resort.”

This morning, Bredesen instructed the Bureau of TennCare and the Department of Human Services, which provides customer service to TennCare enrollees, to prepare a plan for orderly transition to Medicaid. “No enrollee will lose coverage overnight,” the Governor said. “We will give as much advance notice as possible.” The process of notifying TennCare enrollees of changes will begin in early January and the conversion to Medicaid is expected to be completed in mid-2005. As many as 430,000 enrollees, out of a total of 1.3 million enrolled, could lose health coverage.

While the process to dissolve TennCare is underway, the Governor noted the decision could be reversed if the Tennessee Justice Center, a nonprofit public-interest law firm based in Nashville, will provide the State with immediate relief from longstanding “consent decrees” that are blocking reform efforts. The consent decrees, which were agreed upon by the State in the 1990s, now prevent the State from implementing Bredesen’s TennCare reform strategy and obligate TennCare to provide extraordinary benefits well beyond federal requirements.

Late yesterday, Gordon Bonnyman, executive director of the Justice Center, sent Bredesen a letter asking for an additional seven days to consider the State’s request for wholesale modification of the decrees. Unless a modification agreement is reached within one week, Bredesen said, the transition to Medicaid will proceed. “At this point, the process to return to Medicaid is not irreversible,” the Governor said. “But TennCare reform cannot work unless we get the program out of the courts immediately. Nothing short of sweeping change in the consent decrees can save TennCare.”

The Governor added imminent action is required in part due to continually rising use of medical services and pharmacy benefits, and a recent change in the formula for federal funding that will result in fewer dollars from Washington. New fiscal projections indicate TennCare “as is” will require $650 million in additional state revenue in order to sustain it in the 2005-2006 fiscal year — approximately $200 million more than the State anticipates collecting in total new revenue.

Critics argue that TennCare’s cost overruns can be reduced through administrative changes and new taxes. Bredesen disagrees. “Throwing new money at TennCare is not an option,” the Governor said. “Nothing short of fundamental change will solve the problem.”

Bredesen, as a candidate in 2002 and as governor since January 2003, has consistently warned there are two main options for controlling costs in TennCare: Protect enrollment by implementing broad structural reform to control pharmaceutical and medical costs; or make broad cuts to enrollment. With the State unable to gain relief from the Tennessee Justice Center from consent decrees to implement the Governor’s reform strategy, the only remaining option for bringing the program in line is to reduce enrollment and return it to traditional Medicaid.

TennCare began in January 1994 as an innovative experiment to expand Tennessee’s Medicaid program by using managed care principles to deliver health care to a larger number of people for the same amount of money. But from its inception, the program was beset by problems and cost overruns. Consequently, the promise of managed care never was met. Over the course of a decade, TennCare’s costs grew at an unexpected and exponential rate. The program now consumes roughly one in three dollars in the state budget.

Earlier this year, Bredesen characterized the unchecked growth of TennCare as “the clear danger” to the State’s fiscal situation and to its ability to maintain other vital commitments. “Scrambling to keep up with the TennCare bills means we starve to death other things that in the end are equally important, like education,” the Governor said in a February speech to the General Assembly.

To cope with TennCare’s costs, the Governor outlined a broad strategy — including controls on pharmacy spending, cost-sharing with enrollees and benefit limits — in a “last chance” effort to salvage the program. The strategy, which would have preserved full enrollment, was widely viewed as a sensible approach by stakeholders including TennCare enrollees, the General Assembly, the Tennessee Medical Association, the Tennessee Hospital Association, the Tennessee Pharmacists Association and the Children’s Hospital Alliance of Tennessee. However, the Tennessee Justice Center has not agreed to modifying consent decrees, which are roadblocks to reform.

The most burdensome of these legal agreements, the Grier Consent Decree, has fueled hundreds of millions of dollars in rising pharmacy expenditures — the single-largest cost driver in TennCare. The Grier Consent Decree, which prohibits the State from placing reasonable limits on the use of prescription drugs, is a key factor driving 26% annual growth in TennCare drug costs versus average growth of 17% in neighboring states’ healthcare plans.

To put the fiscal challenge in perspective: The total cost of TennCare’s pharmacy benefit in the wake of Grier ($2.11 billion) is greater than the cost of Tennessee’s higher education system ($1.89 billion). The bottom line: Costs within TennCare cannot be controlled without broad reform, which cannot be implemented without relief from Grier and other decrees.

Bredesen reiterated TennCare’s decade-long contribution to public health in Tennessee, saying the concept was and is “a wonderful dream.” But he added unchecked growth must be brought under control or else the State risks jeopardizing all its other priorities. “All great enterprises are powered by the heart, but steered by the head,” the Governor said. “It’s time to do some steering.”

###

Attorney General Nominee - Updated

At this hour, MSNBC is reporting that White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales will be the Bush administration’s nominee to replace John Ashcroft as Attorney General.

Update:

Fox story:

White House counsel Alberto Gonzales has been chosen by President Bush to be the next attorney general, U.S. officials confirmed to FOX News on Wednesday. An announcement from the White House could come later Wednesday.

Gonzales, who would be the first Hispanic attorney general if confirmed by the Senate, would replace John Ashcroft (search).

“I would not rule out an announcement today,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

(Texan Editor’s Note: Gonzales’ hometown. It’s pronounced “Umble” and not “Humble.” The H is not just silent, but it is out drinking with its buddies.)

More on the Raleigh GOP Attack

Reader Mike commented that he had pictures of the vandalism at the headquarters of the Raleigh GOP. After emailing him, he agreed to allow me to post them here, which will also be posted at me sloop.

11/10 Irregularities roundup

For a categorized listing containing thousands of possible fraud and other voting problems, see this.

The Electronic Frontier Foundation’s category on eVoting is here. Their roundup on possible fraud or errors is here.

Here’s another roundup of voting reports.

This page discusses the exit polls and says: “A statistical analysis of exit polling conducted for RAW STORY by a former MIT mathematics professor has found the odds of Bush making an average gain of 4.15 percent among all 16 states included in the media’s 4 p.m. exit polling is 1 in 50,000, or .002 percent.”

David Corn offers the overview “A Stolen Election?”.

From Nov. 3, PC World’s “More E-Voting Problems Reported” describes several reported problems.

And, from My experience as an Election Judge in Baltimore County on November 2, 2004

…I did, however, observe a vulnerability that I do not think would exist with non-DRE voting. It turned out that the new judge, Terry, was the security manager for the church where our election was held. He carried a large keyring to all the doors in the building. He was also in the same political party as chief judge Marie and her husband. One of the reasons why we have election judges from both major parties at each station at the polling center is to provide checks and balances. The night before the election, there was an imbalance. Two judges from the same party had set up the machines alone, and that night, someone from the same party had access to the room where the machines were left unguarded. Why is that a problem? The Diebold Accuvote TS machines were shown to be highly vulnerable to tampering. With physical access to the machines, for example, one could change a few bytes in the ballot definition file and votes for the two major Presidential candidates would be swapped. In that case, none of the procedures we had in place could detect that votes were tallied for the wrong candidates…

At 8:00 p.m., we closed the polls and locked the outside doors. This time we did not have to call security because Terry had the keys. Every hour we had counted the number of people who had voted and posted the turnout on the door of the polling place. When we closed the doors, there had been 725 digital ballots cast, and the chief judges decided not to modem in the results because it would be too much of a hassle. Instead, when they left the precinct later that night, they drove the memory cards with the totals to the board of elections office. I stared at the five machines. Inside them were the little memory cards, not unlike the one in my digital camera at home, with 725 votes stored on them. One by one, we removed the memory cards from the machines. I held them in my hand as chief judge Marie was ready to load them into one of the machines that we designated as the accumulator. How fragile. All of the votes from the entire precinct in my hand. Substituting those cards with five identical looking cards, one could replace all of the ballots that were cast with bogus ones. Surely nobody in Maryland would try something like that. The outcome here was certain before the election. However, what about states like Ohio and New Mexico? 725 paper ballots would be much harder to swap than 5 small memory cards. In larger precincts, the cards could hold thousands of ballots, but they would be the same size…

From “12,000 votes uncounted in Gaston”:

GASTONIA - About 12,000 votes cast in Gaston County have not yet been counted, elections director Sandra Page said Tuesday.

Page said most early and absentee votes were not included in the county’s unofficial election results because of a procedural error.

The inclusion of the votes in the county’s results, expected Tuesday afternoon, could change the outcome of several local and statewide races.

Page emphasized that the votes are still in the computer system. She said officials failed to release the votes from the machine on which they were stored into the database where votes were tallied…

See also this collection of links and this one and for less serious coverage of this issue go here.

Still counting provisional ballots

The N&O's Ryan Teague Beckwith reports that Ballot counting goes to wire:

... Counting provisional ballots is painstaking, no more so than when voters cast them at the wrong precinct. Ballots vary from one precinct to another because candidates for U.S. House, General Assembly and judge are elected by districts.

People may cast provisional ballots if their names are not on the list of registered voters at the polling place where they showed up to vote. If they are later found to be eligible to vote, their ballots are counted.

The only way to count those provisional ballots is for elections workers such as Pace and Gilbert to mark a fresh ballot with the votes that should have been cast -- race by race, ballot by ballot.

An estimated 15,000 Wake voters cast provisional ballots, more than any other county in North Carolina. Elections staff worked 14-hour shifts over the weekend and on Monday to count them.

Still, Cherie Poucher, elections director, said they will not be finished in time for this morning's scheduled certification.

That will delay the state's final vote tally, and likely leave some close races -- including commissioner of agriculture, superintendent of public instruction and two Wake District judgeships -- up in the air a little longer. ...

Worth the read if you're interested in the North Carolina election in particular, or if you're interested in the process behind provisional balloting in general. It includes an inset-box with current tallies for races still up in the air.

Ashcroft, Evans Resign [Updated]

Just breaking of FOX and MSNBC, details as they come in.

Update:

Attorney General John Ashcroft and Commerce Secretary Don Evans resigned Tuesday, the first members of President Bush’s Cabinet to leave as he headed from re-election into his second term.

The resignations were announced by White House press secretary Scott McClellan, who said Bush had accepted the decisions of both secretaries.

“The objective of securing the safety of Americans from crime and terror has been achieved,” Ashcroft wrote in a five-page, handwritten letter to Bush.

More..

“Yet I believe that the Department of Justice would be well served by new leadership and fresh inspiration,” said Ashcroft, whose health problems earlier this year resulted in removal of his gall bladder.

“I believe that my energies and talents should be directed toward other challenging horizons,” he said.

Both Ashcroft and Evans have served in Bush’s Cabinet from the start of the administration. Evans, a close friend of Bush’s from Texas, wrote, “While the promise of your second term shines bright, I have concluded with deep regret that it is time for me to return home.”

McClellan said Bush had accepted the decisions of both secretaries.

More on the Raleigh GOP Attack

Such special people:

RALEIGH — An apparent supporter of three people arrested in an attack on the N.C. Republican Party headquarters tussled with two cameramen as they followed him from the Wake County Public Safety Center on Monday afternoon.

The young man shielded his face from the cameras as he left the first appearance hearing for David Reuben Hensley, Melissa Lynn Brown and Vanessa Marie Zuloaga, where he had tried to communicate with them from his front row seat. He smashed the cameras to the ground and ran.

Mom always taught me not to follow a mistake up with more mistakes. That is how you get Chernobyl.

Officials charged Asa Lincoln Collier, 18, of Cayce, S.C., with simple assault and two counts of damage to property in connection with the incident, according to a news release from the Raleigh Police Department. Officers were searching for the 5 foot 11 inch tall teen late Monday night.

They know his name and hometown. They have him on film, both still and video (caught some of it on the 10pm news). Turn yourself in, stupid. Will be interesting to find out which college he goes to. Too bad Peace College is for women. But 2 of the defendents are women. And the charges?

Wake County District Court Judge Robert Rader officially informed each defendant of the charge against him or her — felony malicious damaging by use of an incendiary device — and asked each whether he or she wanted a court-appointed attorney, would supply one, or would represent himself of herself.

It is interesting to note that these and other illegal political protests have been proportedly linked to Anarchists. New name for Progressives/Liberals? Check the rest of the article.

11/09 Irregularities roundup

Keith Olbermann devoted 17 minutes to possible voter fraud on his show last night; the video is here.

A 60 Minutes segment on blackboxvoting is here.

There’s a concise, categorized roundup of voter fraud stories here. All of them contain links to media reports.

This post has very many links to other DU posts on voting fraud.

This page discusses possible overvotes in Ohio.

This post discusses 19,000 more votes in Miami County, FL.

This post has something about an elections commisioner in Nevada.

“An Examination of the Florida Elections” has a great deal of charts and graphs and looks like it might contains some useful information, but it seems to lack a summary.

There are lots of links here and here.

And, finally, this from Ohio:

…In a letter dated Oct. 21, Ken Nuss, former deputy director of the Auglaize County Board of Elections, claimed that Joe McGinnis, a former employee of Election Systems and Software (ES&S), the company that provides the voting system in Auglaize County, was on the main computer that is used to create the ballot and compile election results, which would go against election protocol. Nuss claimed in the letter that McGinnis was allowed to use the computer the weekend of Oct. 16.

Nuss, who resigned from his job Oct. 21 after being suspended for a day, was responsible for overseeing the computerized programming of election software, according to his job description. His resignation is effective Nov. 11.

The letter also included allegations that Burklo released a sheet from a petition packet filed by Auglaize County Common Pleas Judge Frederick Pepple last December.

UPDATE: Keith Olbermann discusses the episode of his show referenced above in Electronic voting angst.

Will Mike E Get HIs Lottery?

The question on many news sites minds is will Mike Easley get his Educational Lottery?

There are many for or against a lottery, and many (like me), who can take it or leave it. My concern is that the lottery money would go to education, but not in the way we think it would. It should be earmarked specifically for K-12. Also, using the lottery money could mean that less money is coming out of the General fund towards education, and going towards Easley’s pet projects. See this post of mine regarding what other states have done with their lotteries. It isn’t pretty.

Cross Posted over at the Pirate’s Cove, Matey.

Statewide vote count ends tomorrow

Via the N&O, Results near for 3 top jobs:

... The State Board of Elections will release the official vote count Tuesday after tallying all provisional ballots, ending the races for commissioner of agriculture, superintendent of public instruction and state auditor.

"I'll be anxious to get the results," said Agriculture Commissioner Britt Cobb of Raleigh, who was trailing his Republican opponent, Steve Troxler, a Guilford County tobacco farmer, by 9,836 votes by Sunday afternoon.

In the race for superintendent of public instruction, Democrat June Atkinson was leading Republican Bill Fletcher by 2,927 votes. Atkinson is a former state school administrator from Raleigh. Fletcher, of Cary, is a member of the Wake County school board.

The race for state auditor remained the least ambiguous.

Republican Les Merritt of Zebulon was leading incumbent Ralph Campbell of Raleigh by more than 35,043 votes Sunday.

The N&O is still running the vote counts for other statewide offices at the top of their NC races page.

Raleigh GOP Vandalism Arrests

Unlike what some of the national papers have reported there were arrests:

Police caught none of the protesters from either demonstration.

But two neighbors did.

Hearing a commotion, John Robbins and a neighbor captured and detained three protesters until police arrived.

"I found them between the garages taking off their black clothes," Robbins said, adding that one of the female protesters bit him on the shoulder.

Vanessa Marie Zuloaga, 24, and Melissa Lynn Brown, 18, both of Columbia, S.C., and David Reuben Hensley, 20, of Raleigh were each charged with one count of causing malicious damage to property by use of an incendiary device, a felony. All three remained in the Wake County jail late Saturday, each being held in lieu of $50,000 bail. (Note: cannot wait to find out what college they attend)

Florida 2004 and the "Reagan Difference"

This table compares the number of Bush votes in each Florida county with the percentage of registered Republicans for that county.

Look at, for instance, Liberty county. Liberty is apparently a small, rural, panhandle county.

In that county just 7.9% of registered voters are registered as Republicans. However, in 2004 Bush received about 64% of the vote. As the table shows, this is seven times what would be expected if people had voted as they were registered.

However, whatever other questions the table raises, this appears to be part of a pattern.

I downloaded the data for each of the presidental races from 1980 to 2004 and computed the percentage that voted for the Republican presidential candidate in each year, as shown in the table below. So, in Liberty county ("LIB"), 68% voted in 1984 for Reagan and 66% voted in 1988 for Bush I, while 64% voted for Bush II in 2004.

Looking at the table, for most counties support for the Republican presidential candidate peaks in 1984 and 1988.

The final column of the table below computes the "Reagan Difference" as follows:

1. Compute the average of 1984 and 1988.
2. Subtract that average from Bush's 2004 percentage.

Or: RD = 2004_result - average( 1984_result, 1988_result )

As the table shows, support for Bush II has fallen - in many cases by more than 10 points - in most Florida counties from the Reagan-era highpoint of support for the Republican presidential candidate.

Notes:
1. There's no guarantee the input data was correct or was correctly manipulated.
2. This offers no explanation for the differences between the Op-Scan and E-Voting counties as shown in the first table.
3. Only Democrats and Republicans and only the presidential race and only the general election were considered when doing the computations.

1. County code
2. 1980: reagan/carter
3. 1984: reagan/mondale
4. 1988: bush/dukakis
5. 1992: bush/clinton
6. 1996: dole/clinton
7. 2000: bush/gore
8. 2004: bush/kerry
9. : "RD", the "Reagan Difference"

Voting Problems in Craven County

A systems software glitch in Craven County’s electronic voting equipment is being blamed for a vote miscount that, when corrected, changed the outcome of at least one race in Tuesday’s election.

Then, in the rush to make right the miscalculation that swelled the number of votes for president here by 11,283 more votes than the total number cast, a human mistake further delayed accurate totals for the 40,534 who voted.

The glitch occurred Tuesday night as absentee ballot totals for one-stop early voting at three Craven County locations and ballots mailed-in were being entered, said Tiffiney Miller, Craven County Board of Elections director.

Looks like ES&S is looking to correct the issue, and the numbers are not official till Tuesday the 9th anyhow.

NC GOP Headquarters Vandalized

RALEIGH, N.C. — Authorities say an apparent mob of vandals caused some smoke damage inside of North Carolina Republican Party headquarters on Hillsborough Street late Friday night.

The building also had some broken windows, posters with political messages scattered around and vulgar words spraypainted on the walls.

The sign in front of the building was shattered and sprayed with graffiti.

It also appeared that the vandals intended to burn down the building. Police said they found Roman candles and wooden devices they believe could be used to start a fire.

The office is actually relatively close to several colleges, including North Carolina State U, Meredith College, Shaw University, and Peace College.

"This is not a political statement," (Raleigh PD spokesman Jim) Sughrue said. "A political statement is what we made Tuesday. This is a crime."

Cross posted at the Pirate’s Cove. (ps. this isn’t a blatant attempt to garner trackbacks. Noticed that posting was still open, and this is one of the few stories out there about NC)

Kerry Supporter Commits Suicide at Ground Zero

Apparently a Kerry supporter was so upset at Bush’s win that he traveled to Ground Zero and shot himself (hat tip).

"House Dems Seek Election Inquiry"

Wired News:

Three congressmen sent a letter to the General Accounting Office on Friday requesting an investigation into irregularities with voting machines used in Tuesday’s elections…

[…various irregularities described…]

In their letter, representatives John Conyers Jr. of Michigan, Jerrold Nadler of New York and Robert Wexler of Florida asked the GAO to “immediately undertake an investigation of the efficacy of voting machines and new technologies used in the 2004 election, how election officials responded to difficulties they encountered and what we can do in the future to improve our election systems and administration.”

John Doty, spokesman for Nadler, said the congressmen emphasized that they were not seeking a nationwide recount and were not anticipating that an investigation would change the outcome of the election…

…No one was available at the office of the GAO to respond to questions. But a GAO representative told Wired News in September that the agency was planning to produce a report on e-voting after the election anyway.

Irregularities roundup

Warren County, Ohio:

Citing concerns about potential terrorism, Warren County officials locked down the county administration building on election night and blocked anyone from observing the vote count as the nation awaited Ohio’s returns…

James Lee, spokesman with the Ohio Secretary of State’s Office in Columbus, said Thursday he hasn’t heard of any situations similar to Warren County’s building restrictions. He said general security concerns are decided at the local levels.

Other counties, such as Butler County, let people watch ballot checkers through a window.

Typically, the Warren County commissioners’ room is set up as a gathering place for people to watch the votes come in. But that wasn’t done this year…

Warren appears to be a largely rural county with no large towns located between Cincinnati and Dayton. 2000 population: 158,383. In 2002 there were 101,207 registered voters, 50% of whom voted in 2002. In 2004, 91,922 voters went 72% Bush, 27% Kerry.

LaPorte, Indiana:

The day after a two-and-a-half-hour delay in counting ballots due to a glitch in a computer program, LaPorte County election officials are still trying to figure out what happened. “Maybe there was a power surge,” LaPorte County Clerk Lynne Spevak said. “Something zapped it.” At about 7 p.m. Tuesday, it was noticed that the first two or three printouts from individual precinct reports all listed an identical number of voters. Each precinct was listed as having 300 registered voters. That means the total number of voters for the county would be 22,200, although there are actually more than 79,000 registered voters… […the patch from Election Systems and Software didn’t work, they might have to manually input the information…]

Craven County, North Carolina: Election problems due to a software glitch:

A systems software glitch in Craven County’s electronic voting equipment is being blamed for a vote miscount that, when corrected, changed the outcome of at least one race in Tuesday’s election. Then, in the rush to make right the miscalculation that swelled the number of votes for president here by 11,283 more votes than the total number cast, a human mistake further delayed accurate totals for the 40,534 who voted… The Elections Systems and Software equipment had downloaded voting information from nine of the county’s 26 precincts and as the absentee ballots were added, the precinct totals were added a second time…

South Florida OKs Slot Machines Proposal:

A proposal that would let voters decide whether to allow slot machines at race tracks and jai alai frontons in South Florida won approval after elections officials discovered thousands of absentee votes missed in an electronic tally on Election Day.

The vast majority of the 79,000 absentee ballots added late in Broward County approved the initiative Thursday. That made all the difference in the outcome, swamping the narrow lead that opponents had clung to since Tuesday.

State and local elections officials said the ballot oversight was due to human error in computer programming, not a technical glitch. A leader of No Casinos said opponents would ask Broward County for a re-count anyway, but Secretary of State Glenda Hood said that wasn’t possible under state law…

See also Palm Beach County Logs 88,000 More Votes Than Voters

And, this chart shows the (unconfirmed) differences between the numbers of votes cast for president and the total turnout for each Florida county.

The county-by-county Florida results are analyzed statistically here.

"Broward [County FL] machines count backward"

FORT LAUDERDALE - Early Thursday, as Broward County elections officials wrapped up after a long day of canvassing votes, something unusual caught their eye. Tallies should go up as more votes are counted. That’s simple math. But in some races, the numbers had gone . . . down.

Officials found the software used in Broward can handle only 32,000 votes per precinct. After that, the system starts counting backward…

Note: That sounds like it might be a “short vs. long” issue. Without going into too much detail, a “short” can only represent a much more limited range of numbers than a “long.” A “signed” short or long uses the same bits to represent both positive and negative numbers. This post from over 12 years ago describes the difference and suggest using longs except when memory is critical or otherwise dictated. While there are certainly situations in which using a short would be advisable, this wouldn’t appear to be one of them. If the wraparound is indeed because a short was used where a long would be advised, this is clearly a major error resulting from very poor design, very poor coding, a major uncaught bug, or something else.

If this is a database column, it’s clearly a very major design error.

Otherwise, it could be a casting /conversion problem or an arithmetic error or a transmission problem or something else. One would think this bug would have been caught the first time they tested to see if the machine could handle a large number of votes, if they did indeed test that.

Cofer Black Resigns

President Bush’s point man for international counterterrorism policy has quit, the first resignation by a senior official to be made public since Bush’s reelection, a U.S. official said on Friday.

Cofer Black, the State Department’s coordinator for counterterrorism for the last two years, told his bosses of his decision well before the election, which Bush won campaigning as a strong leader in the war on terror.

“He informed the State Department a few weeks ago that the transition period after the election would be the right time for him to explore new professional opportunities,” State Department spokesman Adam Ereli told Reuters.

He plans to leave the government in a few weeks, added Ereli, who did not know what Black would move on to.

Read more…

Le Nouvel Observateur on President Bush's re-election

French weekly magazine Le Nouvel Observateur published this partisan cover today.
Here’s the translation.
THE AMERICA OF FEAR HAS WON
BUSH 2 WORSE THAN BUSH 1?

As Cardinal Fans, we still love this

Our daughter spent the last week before the election helping campaign in New Hampshire. She brought back the best campaign sign ever. Hopefully she will send us one back here in Illinois. You can see it by visiting here. Thanks for the opportunity to have been a part of your election 2004 citizen team.

The Daily Mirror's Reaction

Transcript of President's Press Conference

Following is a transcript of President Bush’s news conference yesterday, as recorded by The New York Times:

Opening Statement

Yesterday I pledged to reach out to the whole nation. And today I’m proving that I’m willing to reach out to everybody by including the White House press corps.

This week the voters of America set the direction of our nation for the next four years. I’m honored by the support of my fellow citizens. And I’m ready for the job.

We are fighting a continuing war on terror and every American has a stake in the outcome of this war. Republicans, Democrats and independents all love our country and together we’ll protect the American people. We will preserve - we’ll persevere until the enemy is defeated. We’ll stay strong and resolute. We have a duty - a solemn duty - to protect the American people, and we will.

Every civilized country also has a stake in the outcome of this war. Whatever our past disagreements, we share a common enemy. We have common duties to protect our peoples, to confront disease and hunger and poverty in troubled regions of the world.

I’ll continue to reach out to our friends and allies, our partners in the E.U. and NATO, to promote development and progress, to defeat the terrorists and to encourage freedom and democracy as alternatives to tyranny and terror.

I also look forward to working with the present Congress and the new Congress that will arrive in January. I congratulate the men and women who’ve just been elected to the House and the Senate. I will join with old friends and new friends to make progress for all Americans.

Congress will return later this month to finish this current session. I urge members to pass the appropriations bill that remain, showing spending discipline while focusing on our nation’s priorities.

Our government also needs the very best intelligence, especially in the time of war. So I urge the Congress to pass an effective intelligence reform bill that I can sign into law.

The new Congress that begins its work next year will have serious responsibilities and historic opportunities. To accelerate the momentum of this economy and to keep creating jobs we must take practical measures to help our job creators, the entrepreneurs and the small-business owners.

We must confront the frivolous lawsuits that are driving up the costs of health care and hurting doctors and patients.

We must continue the work of education reform to bring high standards and accountability, not just to our elementary and secondary schools but to our high schools as well.

We must reform our complicated and outdated tax code. We need to get rid of the needless paperwork that makes our economy - that is a drag on our economy - to make our - to make sure our economy is the most competitive in the world.

We must show our leadership by strengthening Social Security for our children and our grandchildren. This is more than a problem to be solved. It is an opportunity to help millions of our fellow citizens find security and independence that comes from owning something - from ownership.

In the election of 2004, large issues were set before our country. They were discussed every day on the campaign. The campaign over, Americans are expecting a bipartisan effort and results. I’ll reach out to everyone who shares our goals. And I’m eager to start the work ahead.

I’m looking forward to serving this country for four more years.

I want to thank you all for your hard work in the campaign. I told you that the other day and you probably thought I was just seeking votes.

But now that you voted, I really meant it. I appreciate the hard work of the press corps. We all put in long hours and you were away from your families for a long period of time. But the country’s better off when we have a vigorous and free press covering our elections. And thanks for your work.

With that overpandering, I’ll answer a few questions.

Questions and Answers

Q. Mr. President, thank you. As you look at your second term, how much is the war in Iraq going to cost? Do you intend to send more troops or bring troops home? And in the Middle East more broadly, do you agree with Tony Blair that revitalizing the Middle East peace process is the single most pressing political issue facing the world?

Mr. Bush Now that I’ve got the will of the people at my back, I’m going to start enforcing the one-question rule. That was three questions.

Start with Tony Blair’s comments. I agree with him that the Middle East peace is a very important part of a peaceful world. I have been working on Middle Eastern peace ever since I’ve been the president. I laid down some - a very hopeful strategy on - in June of 2002. And my hope is that we’ll make good progress. I think it’s very important for our friends, the Israelis, to have a peaceful Palestinian state living on their border. And it’s very important for the Palestinian people to have a peaceful, hopeful future. That’s why I articulated a two-state vision in that Rose Garden speech. I meant it when I said it and I mean it now.

What was the other part of your question?

Q. Iraq.

A. Oh, Iraq. Yeah. Listen, we will work with the Allawi government to achieve our objective, which is elections and on the path to stability. And we’ll continue to train the troops. Our commanders will have that which they need to complete their missions. And in terms of the cost, I - we will work with O.M.B. and the Defense Department to bring forth to Congress a realistic assessment of what the cost will be.

Q. Thank you, Mr. President. How will you go about bringing people together? Will you seek a consensus candidate for the Supreme Court if there’s an opening? Will you bring some Democrats into your cabinet?

A. Again, you violated the one-question rule right off the bat. Obviously you didn’t listen to the will of the people.

But first of all, there’s no vacancy for the Supreme Court. And I will deal with a vacancy when there is one.

And what I - I told the people on the campaign trail that I’ll pick somebody that knows the difference between personal opinion and the strict interpretation of the law. You might have heard that several times. I meant what I said.

And if people are interested in knowing the kind of judges I’ll pick, look at the record. I’ve sent up a lot of judges, well qualified people who know the law, who represent a judicial temperament that I agree with and who are qualified to hold the bench.

The second part of your two-part question?

Q. … Democrat to your cabinet by any chance?

A. I haven’t made any decisions on the cabinet yet.

Q. How else will you bring people together?

A. We’ll put out an agenda that everybody understands and work with people to achieve the agenda.

Democrats want a free and peaceful world. And we’ll - by the way, right after Sept. 11, we worked very closely together to secure our country. There is a common ground to be had when it comes to a foreign policy that says the most important objective is to protect the American people and spread freedom and democracy.

There’s common ground when it comes to making sure the intelligence services are able to provide good, actionable intelligence to protect our people. And this - it’s not a Republican issue; it’s a Republican and Democrat issue. And so I’ll - plenty of places for us to work together.

Q. Thank you, Mr. President. On foreign policy more broadly, do you believe that America has an image problem in the world right now because of your efforts in response to the 9/11 attacks? And as you talked down the stretch about building alliances, talk about what you’ll do to build on those alliances and to deal with these image problems, particularly in the Islamic world.

A. I appreciate that. Listen, I’ve made some very hard decisions - decisions to protect ourselves, decisions to spread peace and freedom. And I understand that in certain capitals and certain countries those decisions were not popular. You know, you said - you asked me to put that in the context of the response on Sept. 11. The first response, of course, was chasing down the terror networks, which we will continue to do. And we - we’ve got great response around the world in order to do that. There’s over 90 nations involved with sharing information, finding terrorists, and bringing them to justice. That is a broad coalition and we’ll continue to strengthen it.

I laid out a doctrine that said if you harbor a terrorist, you’re equally as guilty as the terrorist and that doctrine was ignored by the Taliban and we removed the Taliban. And I fully understand some people didn’t agree with that decision. But I believe that when the American president speaks, he’d better mean what he says in order to keep the world peaceful. And I believe we have a solemn duty, whether or not people agree with it or not, to protect the American people. And their - the Taliban and their harboring of al Qaeda represented a direct threat to the American people.

And of course and the Iraq issue is one that people disagreed with. And I don’t need to rehash my case. But I - I did so - I made the decision I made in order to protect our country, first and foremost.

I will continue to do that, as the president. But as I do so, I will reach out to others and explain why I make the decisions I make.

There is a certain attitude in the world by some that says, you know, it’s a waste of time to try to promote free societies in parts of the world. I’ve heard that criticism. I remember I went to London to talk about our vision of spreading freedom throughout the greater Middle East.

And I fully understand that that might rankle some and be viewed by some as folly. I just strongly disagree with those who do not see the wisdom of trying to promote free societies around the world.

If we are interested in protecting our country for the long term, the best way to do so is to promote freedom and democracy. And I simply do not agree with those who either say overtly or believe that certain societies cannot be free. It’s just not a part of my thinking.

And that’s why, during the course of the campaign, I was - I believe I was able to connect, at least with those who were there, in explaining my policy when I talked about the free elections in Afghanistan.

There were - there was doubt about whether or not those elections would go forward. I’m not suggesting any of you here expressed skepticism, but there was. There was deep skepticism. And because there is a attitude among some that certain people may never be free, and at least don’t long to be free, or incapable of running an election. And I disagree with that.

And the Afghan people, by going to the polls in the millions, proved - proved that this administration’s faith in freedom to change people’s habits is - is worthy.

And that’ll be a central part of my foreign policy. And I’ve got work to do to explain to people about why that is a central part of our foreign policy. I mean I’ve been doing that for four years.

But if you do not believe people can be free, and can self-govern, then all of a sudden, the two-state solution in the Middle East becomes a moot point, invalid. If you’re willing to condemn a group of people to a system of government that hasn’t worked, then you’ll never be able to achieve the peace.

You cannot lead this world and our country to a better tomorrow unless you see a better - unless you have a vision of a better tomorrow. And I’ve got one based upon a great faith that people do want to be free and live in democracy.

Q. Now that the political volatility is off the issue because the election is over, I’d like to ask you about troop levels in Iraq in the next couple of months leading up to elections. The Pentagon already has a plan to extend tours of duty for some 6,500 U.S. troops. How many more will be needed to provide security in Iraq for elections, seeing as how the Iraqi troops that you’re trying to train up are pretty slow coming on line?

A. Yeah. Well, first of all, the - we are making good progress in training the Iraqi troops. There’ll be 125,000 of them trained by election time.

Secondly, I have yet to - I have not sat down with our secretary of defense talking about troop levels. I read some reports during the course of the campaign where some were speculating, in the press corps, about the number of troops needed to protect elections. I - that has not been brought to my attention yet. And so I would caution you that what you have either read about or reported was pure speculation thus far.

These elections are important and we will respond, John, to the requests of our commanders on the ground. And I have yet to hear from our commanders on the ground that they need more troops.

Q. Mr. President, your victory at the polls came about in part because of strong support from people of faith, in particular Christian evangelicals and pentacostals and others. And Senator Kerry drew some of his strongest support from those who do not attend religious services. What do you make of this religious divide, it seems, becoming a political divide in this country? And what do you say to those who are concerned about the role of a faith they do not share in public life and in your policies?

A. Yeah. My answer to people is I will be your president regardless of your faith. And I don’t expect you to agree with me, necessarily, on religion. As a matter of fact, no president should ever try to impose religion on our society. The great - the great tradition of America is one where people can worship the - the way they want to worship. And if they choose not to worship, they’re just as patriotic as your neighbor. That is an essential part of why we are a great nation. And I am glad people of faith voted in this election. I’m glad - I appreciate all people who voted. And I don’t think you ought to read anything into the politics, the moment, about whether or not this nation will become a divided nation over religion. I think the great thing that unites us is the fact you can worship freely if you choose and if you - you don’t have to worship. And if you’re a Jew or a Christian or a Muslim, you’re equally American. That is - that is such a wonderful aspect of our society. And it is strong today and it’ll be strong tomorrow.

Q. Mr. President, you talked once again this morning about private accounts and Social Security. During the campaign you were accused of planning to privatize the entire system. It has been something you’ve discussed for some time. You’ve lost some of the key Democratic proponents such as Pat Moynihan and Bob Kerrey in the Congress. How will you proceed now with one of the key problems which is the transition cost, which some say is as much as two trillion dollars? How will you proceed on that and how soon?

A. Well, first I made Social Security an issue for those of you who had to suffer through my speeches on a daily basis, for those of you who actually listened to my speeches on a daily basis, you might remember every speech I talked about the duty of an American president to lead. And we must lead on Social Security because the system is not going to be whole for our children or our grandchildren.

And so to answer your second question is, we’ll start on Social Security now. We’ll start bringing together those in Congress who agree with my assessment that we need to work together. We’ve got a good blueprint, a good go-by. You mentioned Senator Moynihan, I had asked him prior to his passing to chair a committee of notable Americans to come up with some ideas on Social Security. And they did so. And it’s a good place for members of Congress to start.

The president must have the will to take on the issue, not only in the campaign but now that I’m elected. And this, reforming Social Security, will be a priority of my administration. Obviously, if it were easy it would have already been done. And this is going to be hard work to bring people together and to make, to convince the Congress to move forward. And there are going to be costs. But the cost of doing nothing is insignificant - is much greater than the cost of reforming the system today. That was the case I made on the campaign trail. And I was earnest about getting something done. And as a matter of fact I talked to members of my staff today as we’re beginning to plan the strategy to move agendas forward about how to do this and do it effectively.

Q. Mr. President, you were disappointed, even angry 12 years ago when the voters denied your father a second term. I’m interested in your thoughts and the conversation with him yesterday as you were walking to the Oval Office. And also whether you feel more free to do any one thing in a second term that perhaps you were politically constrained from doing in the first.

A. At 3:30 in the morning on I guess it was the day after the election, he was sitting upstairs. And I finally said go to bed. He was awaiting the outcome and was hopeful that we would go over and be able to talk to our supporters. It just didn’t happen that way. So I asked him the next morning when he got up, said come by the Oval Office and visit. And he came by. We had a good talk. He was headed down to Houston. And it was, you know, there was some uncertainty about that morning as to when the election would actually end. And it wasn’t clear at that point in time. So I never got to see him face to face to watch his, I guess, pride in his tired eyes as his son got a second term. I did talk to him and he was relieved. I told him to get a nap. He was - I was worried about him staying up too late. But, so I haven’t had a chance to really visit and embrace.

And you’re right, ‘92 was a disappointment. But he taught me a really good lesson, that life moves on. And it’s very important for those of us in the political arena win or lose to recognize that life is bigger than just politics. And this was one of the really good lessons he taught me.

Q. Do you feel more free?

A. In terms of feeling free, well, I don’t think you’ll let me be too free. There’s accountability and there are constraints on the presidency as there should be in any system. I feel it is necessary to move an agenda that I told the American people I would move. Something refreshing about coming off an election. Even more refreshing since we all got some sleep last night.

But there’s, you go out and you make your case. And you tell the people this is what I intend to do. And after hundreds of speeches and three debates and interviews and the whole process where you keep basically saying the same thing over and over again that when you win there is a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view. And that’s what I intend to tell the Congress. That I made it clear what I intend to do as the president. Now let’s work - and the people made it clear what they wanted. Now let’s work together. It’s one of the wonderful - it’s like earning capital.

You asked do I feel free. Let me put it to you this way. I earned capital in the campaign, political capital. And now I intend to spend it. It is my style. That’s what happened after the 2000 election, I earned some capital. I’ve earned capital in this election. And I’m going to spend it for what I told the people I’d spend it on, which is, you’ve heard the agenda: Social Security and tax reform, moving this economy forward, education, fighting and winning the war on terror. We have an obligation in this country to continue to work with nations to help alleve poverty and disease. We will continue to press forward on the H.I.V. AIDS initiative, the Millennium Challenge Account. We will continue to do our duty to help feed the hungry. And I’m looking forward to it. I really am.

It’s been a fantastic experience campaigning the country. It’s, you’ve seen it from one perspective. I’ve seen it from another. I saw you standing there at the last final rally in Texas to my right over there. I was observing you observe. And you saw the energy. And there was just uplifting about people showing up at 11 o’clock at night expressing their support and their prayers and their friendship. It’s a marvelous experience to campaign across the country.

Q. Do you plan to reshape your cabinet for the second term? Or will any changes come at the instigation of individuals? And as part of the same question, may I ask you what you’ve learned about cabinet government, what works, what doesn’t work. And do you mind also addressing the same question about the White House staff?

A. The post-election euphoria did not last very long here at the press corps. Let me talk about the people that have worked with me. I had a cabinet meeting today. And I thanked them for their service to the country and reminded them that we’ve got a job to do. And I expected them to do the job. I have made no decisions on my Cabinet and or White House staff. I am mindful that working in the White House is really, is exhausting work. The um, the people who you try to get to leak to you spend hours away from their families. And it is, there is, the word burnout is oftentimes used in Washington. And it’s used for a reason. Because people do burn out. And so obviously, in terms of those who are, who want to stay on and who I want to stay on I’ve got to make sure that it’s right for their families. And that they’re comfortable. Because when they come to work here in the White House I expect them to work as hard as they possibly can on behalf of the American people.

And the Cabinet, there will be some changes. I don’t know who they will be. It’s inevitable there will be changes. It happens in every administration. To a person I am proud of the work they have done. And I fully understand we’re about to head into the period of intense speculation as to who is going to stay and who is not going to stay. And I assured them, today I warned them of the speculative period. It’s great Washington sport to be talking about who’s going to leave and who the replacements may be and handicapping my way of thinking.

I’ll just give you, but let me just help you out with the speculation right now. I haven’t thought about it. I’m going to start thinking about it. I’m going to Camp David this afternoon with Laura. And I’ll begin the process of thinking about the Cabinet and the White House staff. And we’ll let you know at the appropriate time when decisions have been made.

Q. What works, what doesn’t?

A. Yeah, well, first I’ve learned that I’ve put together a really good cabinet. I’m very proud of the people that have served this government. And they, to a man or woman work their hearts out for the American people. And I’ve learned that you’ve got to continue to surround yourself with good people. This is a job that requires crisp decision making. And therefore, in order for me to make decisions I’ve got to have people who bring their point of view into the Oval Office and are willing to say it. I always jest to people, the Oval Office is the kind of place where people stand outside, they’re getting ready to come in and tell me what for and they walk in and get overwhelmed by the atmosphere. And they say “man, you’re looking pretty.” And therefore, you need people to walk in on those days when you’re not looking so good and saying you’re not looking so good, Mr. President. And I’ve got, those are the kind of people that served our country.

We’ve had vigorous debates, which you all during the last four years took great delight in reporting. Differences of opinion. But that’s what you want if you’re the commander in chief and a decision maker. You want people to walk in and say I don’t agree with this or I do agree with that. And here’s what my recommendation is. But the president also has to learn to decide. There’s ample time for the debate to take place. And then decide. And make up your mind. And lead. That’s what the job’s all about. And so I have learned how important it is to be, to have a really fine group of people that think through issues and that are not intimidated by the process. And who walk in and tell me what’s on their mind.

Q. Sir, does it bother you that there’s a perception out there that your administration has been one that favors big business and the wealthy individuals? And what can you do to overcome that, sir?

A. 70 percent of the new jobs in America are created by small businesses. I understand that. And I have promoted during the course of the last four years one of the most aggressive pro-entrepreneur, small business policies. Tax relief. You might remember, I don’t know if you know this or not but 90 percent of the businesses are sole proprietorships or Subchapter S corporations.

Tax relief helped them. This is an administration that fully understands that the job creators are the entrepreneurs. And so in a new term we’ll make sure that tax relief continues to be robust for our small businesses. We’ll push legal reform and regulatory reform. Because I understand the engine of growth is through the small business sector.

Q. Sir, given your commitment to reaching out across party lines and to all Americans, I wonder if you could expand on your definition bipartisanship and whether it means simply picking off a few Democrats on a case-by-case basis to pass the bills you want to pass or whether you would commit to working regularly with the Democratic leadership on solutions that can win broad support across party lines?

A. Do you remember the No Child Left Behind Act? I think that’s the model I’d look at if I were you. It is a - I laid out an agenda for reforming our public schools. I worked with both Republicans and Democrats to get that bill passed. In a new term, we’ll continue to make sure we do not weaken the accountability standards that are making a huge difference in people’s lives, in these kids’ lives. But that’s the model I’d look at if I were you.

And there’s a certain practicality to life here in Washington. And that is when you get a bill moving, it is important to get the votes. And if politics starts to get in the way of getting good legislation through, well, that’s just part of life here.

But I’m also focused on results. I think of the Medicare bill. You might remember that old stale debate. We finally got a bill moving. I was hoping it would get strong bipartisan support. Unfortunately it was an election year. And but we got the votes necessary to get the bill passed.

And so we will - I will - my goal is to work on the ideal and to reach out and to continue to work and find common ground on issues.

On the other hand, I’ve been wisened to the ways of Washington. I watched what can happen during certain parts of the cycle where politics gets in the way of good policy. And at that point in time, I’ll continue to - you know, I’ll try to get this done. And try to get our bills passed in a way. Because results really do matter, as far as I’m concerned.

I really didn’t come here to hold the office, just to say, Gosh, it was fun to serve. I came here to get some things done. And we are doing it.

Q. I know you haven’t had a chance to learn this, but it appears that Yasir Arafat has passed away.

A. Really?

Q. And I was just wondering if I could get your initial reaction and also your thoughts on perhaps working with a new generation of Palestinian leadership.

A. I appreciate that. My first reaction is: God bless his soul. And my second reaction is that we will continue to work for a free Palestinian state that’s at peace with Israel.

Q. Mr. President, as you look at your second-term domestic priorities, I wonder of you could talk a little bit about how you see the sequence of action on issues beyond Social Security, tax reform, education, and if you could expand a little bit for us on the principles that you want to underpin your tax reform proposal? Do you want it to be revenue-neutral? What kinds of things do you want to accomplish through that process?

A. I appreciate that. I was anticipating this question that, you know, what is the first thing you’re going to do when it comes to legislation. It just doesn’t work that way, particularly when you’ve laid out a comprehensive agenda. And part of that comprehensive agenda is tax simplification.

The - first of all, a principle would be revenue-neutral. If I’m going to - you know, if there was a need to raise taxes, I’d say, let’s have a tax bill that raises taxes as opposed to let’s simplify the tax code and sneak a tax increase on the people. It’s just not my style. I don’t believe we need to raise taxes. I’ve said that to the American people. And so the simplification would be the goal.

Now, secondly, that - obviously that it rewards risk and doesn’t have unnecessary penalties in it.

But the main thing is that it would be viewed as fair, that it would be a fair system, that it wouldn’t be complicated, that there’s a, you know, kind of - that loopholes wouldn’t be there for special interests, that the code itself be viewed and deemed as a very fair way to - to encourage people to invest and save and achieve certain fiscal objectives in our country as well.

You know, one of the interesting debates will be, of course, in the course of simplification: will there be incentives in the code? Charitable giving, of course, and mortgage deductions are very important. As governor of Texas, when I - at some time I think I was asked about simplification, I always noted how important it was for certain incentives to be built in the tax code. And that’ll be an interesting part of the debate.

Certain issues come quicker than others in the course of a legislative session. And that depends upon whether or not those issues have been debated. I think, for example, of the legal issue - the legal reform issues. They have been - medical liability reform had been debated and got thwarted a couple of times in one body in particular on Capitol Hill.

And so the groundwork has been laid for some legislation that I’ve been talking about. On an issue like tax reform, it’s going to - tax simplification - it’s going to take a lot of legwork to get something ready for a legislative package. I fully understand that.

The Social Security form will require some additional legwork, although the Moynihan Commission has laid the groundwork for it, I think is a very good place to start the debate.

The education issue is one that could move pretty quickly because there’s been a lot of discussion about education. You know, it’s an issue that the members are used to debating and discussing.

And so I think, you know, all issues are important. And the timing of issues as they reach it through committee and floor really depend upon whether or not some work has already been done on those issues.

A couple more questions.

Q. Mr. President, American forces are gearing up for what appears to be a major offensive in Falluja over the next several days. I’m wondering if you could tell us what the objective is, what the stakes are there, for the United States, for the Iraqi people, and the Iraqi elections coming up in January.

A. In order for Iraq to be a free country, those who are trying to stop the elections and stop a free society from emerging must be defeated. And so Prime Minister Allawi and his government, which fully understands that, are working with our generals on the ground to do just that.

Now, we will work closely with the government. It’s their government; it’s their country. We’re there at their invitation. And but I think there’s a recognition that these - some of these people have to - must be defeated. And so that’s what they’re thinking about. That’s what you’re - that’s why you’re hearing discussions about potential action in Falluja.

Q. Thank you, Sir. Many within your own party are unhappy over the deficit and they say keeping down discretional spending alone won’t help you reach your goal of halving the deficit in five years. What else do you plan to do to cut costs?

A. Well, I, you know, I would suggest they look at our budget that we’ve submitted to Congress, which does in fact get the deficit cut in half in five years. And it is a specific, line by line budget that we are required to submit and have done so.

The key to making sure that the deficit is reduced is for there to be on the one hand, spending discipline - and I’ve - as you noticed in my opening remarks, I talked about these appropriations bills that are beginning to move. And I thought I was pretty clear about the need for those bills to be - to be fiscally responsible. And I meant it. And I look forward to talking to the leadership about making sure that the - the budget agreements we had are still the budget agreements - that just because we had an election, that they shouldn’t feel comfortable changing our agreement. And I think they understand that.

Secondly, the other way to make sure that the deficit is - decreases - is to grow the economy. As the economy grows, there’ll be more revenues coming into the treasury. That’s what you have seen recently. If you notice that there’s been some - there’s been some write-downs of the budget deficit whereas the deficit is less than we thought because the revenues is exceeding projections. And the reason why the revenues - the revenues are exceeding projections. Sometimes I mangle the English language. I get - anyway - yeah, very inside.

The revenues are exceeding projections. And as a result, the projected deficit is less. But my point there is is that so - with good economic policy that encourages economic growth, the revenue streams begin to increase. And as the revenue streams increase, coupled with fiscal discipline, you’ll see the deficit shrinking. And we are focused on that. I do believe there ought to be budgetary reform in Washington, on the Hill - Capitol Hill. I think it’s very important.

I would like to see the president have a line item veto again when it passed constitutional muster. I think it would help the executive branch work with the legislative branch to make sure that - that we’re able to maintain budget discipline.

I’ve talked to a lot of members of Congress who are wondering whether or not we’ll have the will to confront entitlements, to make sure that there is entitlement reform that helps us maintain fiscal discipline.

The answer is yes. That’s why I took on the Social Security issue. I believe that we have a duty to do so. I want to make sure that the Medicare reforms that we put in place remain robust to help us make sure Medicare is available for generations to come.

And so there is a - I’ve got quite an active agenda to help work with Congress to bring not only fiscal discipline but to make sure that our pro-growth policies are still in place.

Q. I‘m interested in getting back to Steven - Stevenson’s question about unity. Clearly, you believe you have reached out and will continue to reach out. Do you believe that Democrats have made a sincere and sufficient effort to meet you somewhere halfway? And do you think now there’s more reason for them to do that in light of the election results?

A. I think the Democrats agree that we have an obligation to serve our country. I believe there will be goodwill, now that this election is over, to work together. I found that to be the case when I first arrived here in Washington. And working with the Democrats and fellow Republicans, we got a lot done. And it is with that spirit that I go into this coming session. And I will meet with both Republican and Democrat leaders and I am - they’ll see I’m genuine about working toward some of these important issues.

It’s going to be - it’s not easy, you know. These - I readily concede I’ve laid out some very difficult issues for people to deal with.

Reforming the Social Security system for generations to come is a difficult issue. Otherwise it would have already been done. But it is necessary to confront it. And I would hope to be able to work with Democrats to get this done. I’m not sure we can get it done without Democrat participation. Because it is a big issue. And I will explain to them, you know, I will show them Senator Moynihan’s thinking as a way to begin the process. And I will remind everybody who’s here that we have a duty to leave behind a better America and when we see a problem, to deal with it. And I think Democrats agree with that.

And so I’m optimistic. You’ve covered me when I was a governor of Texas. I told you that I was going to do that as the governor. There was probably some skepticism in your beady eyes there. But you might remember we were able to accomplish a lot by - and Washington is different from Austin, no question about it. Washington - one of the disappointments of the - of being here in Washington is how bitter this town can become and how divisive.

I’m not blaming one party or the other. It’s just the reality of Washington, D.C. Sometimes exacerbated by - by you because it’s great sport; it’s entertaining for some. It also makes it difficult to govern at times. And I - but nevertheless, my commitment is there. I fully - now I’m more seasoned to Washington. I have cut my political eye teeth, at least the ones I’ve recently grown here in Washington. And so I’m aware of what can happen in this town. But nevertheless, having said that, I am fully prepared to work with both Republican and Democrat leadership to advance an agenda that I think makes a big difference for the country.

Listen, thank you all. I look forward to working with you. I’ve got a question for you: How many of you are going to be here for a second term? Please raise your hand.

Gosh, we’re going to have a lot of fun then.

Thank you all.

Election review: State House

(Cross-posted at www.batesline.com)

Republicans won 9 (possibly 10, pending a recount) out of the 23 open Oklahoma House seats previously held by Democrats, plus they replaced incumbent Democrat Roy McClain with Dan Sullivan in House 71 (a 13 point margin). Republicans lost one incumbent — Stuart Ericson (HD 13) was swamped by a Brad Carson turnout push in the Carson’s 2nd Congressional District and lost to Jerry McPeek by 347 votes (3%). A net pickup of 8 gives Republicans 57 seats to 44 for the Democrats. If David Schaffer (HD 78) prevails in a recount, the score would go to 58-43, just nine votes short of a two-thirds majority.

SoonerPoll.com made their State House picks last week and even polled 17 key races — 13 open Democrat seats, two incumbent Democrat seats, and two open Republican seats. Let’s compare their picks to the results in open Democrat seats (SoonerPoll rating in parentheses after the seat number, and poll result where available, MOE +/- 4.4%).

SoonerPoll.com came very near the result (within MOE) in Districts 10, 12, 55, 59, 64, 78, and 92. They didn’t poll a couple of races that turned out to be upsets — Districts 5 and 42, which were rated likely D but went Republican, and District 13, a likely R seat held by an incumbent that went D. In some cases, they got the winner right but were way off on the margin — like HD 30, and HD 33, supposedly a 1.5% leaner, which ended up a 28 point landslide.

Other “leaning D” seats went heavily for the Republican: In HD 27, they polled it as leaning D by 2.7 but it was won by the Republican by 12 points. The two open Republican seats they had as leaners, but the Republicans won by double-digits.

I give a lot of credit to SoonerPoll.com for making the effort to poll these races and making the result public. There are some improvements to be made, either in their likely voter screen or their random selection method. The Republican GOTV effort probably accounts for the bigger-than-expected margins.

Race-by-race info after the jump.

HD 5 (Likely D) — SoonerPoll.com didn’t poll this seat, rated it “Likely Democrat” — Grove physician Doug Cox ® got 56% of the vote in this Grand Lake area seat.

HD 8 (Likely D) — Ben Sherrer (D) with 62% of the vote.

HD 10 (Leaning R, 3.9%) — Steve Martin ® beat the incumbent’s wife by 4.7% in Washington, Nowata, and Osage Counties.

HD 12 (Leaning D, 1.2%) — Wade Rousselot (D) beat Mark Wofford by 1.6%, 239 votes in this Wagoner County seat. The growth of Broken Arrow and Coweta as suburbs is making Wagoner County more Republican, but not quite enough yet.

HD 16 (Likely D) — Gerry Shoemake (D) with 73% in Okmulgee, Muskogee, and Wagoner Counties.

HD 19 (Likely D) — R. C. Pruett (D) with 79% deep down in Little Dixie.

HD 22 (Likely D) — Wes Hilliard (D) succeeds his Uncle Danny with only 57%. In Murray County (named for Alfalfa Bill), that’s practically a win for the Republicans.

HD 27 (Leaning D, 2.7%) — Shane Jett ® by 12 points — 54% to 42%. Jett, 29, lost this Shawnee seat to the incumbent (term-limited this year) by just 122 votes two years ago.

HD 28 (Leaning D, 4.1%) — Law student Ryan Kiesel (D) won Dan Boren’s old seat over Seminole mayor Billy Choate, 57-43.

HD 30 (Leaning R, 2.8%) — Brian Bingman ®, former Sapulpa mayor, with a 12 point win — 56% to 44%.

HD 33 (Leaning R, 1.5%) — Lee Denney ®, wins 61% to 39%. She served as Mayor of Cushing. (Beginning to see the importance of electing Republicans at the local level?)

HD 42 (Likely D) — Lisa Billy ®, a teacher and former Chickasaw tribal legislator, scored a 13 point win in this seat in Garvin and McClain Counties.

HD 49 (Likely D) — Stillwater resident and OSU rodeo coach Terry Hyman (D) parachuted into this far-south-central Oklahoma district, beating local long-time Republican leader Wanda Cruson, 60-40.

HD 52 (Likely D) — David B. Braddock (D) wins this one 55-45.

HD 55 (Leaning R, 3.2%) — Ryan McMullen (D) beat John English ®, son of former conservative Democrat Congressman Glenn English, by 163 votes, or 0.7%, out in west-central Oklahoma.

HD 56 (Leaning D, 1.8%) — Phil Richardson ® won by 16 points — 58% to 42%. The district stretches from Caddo County, through part of Grady County, and up into Canadian County to grab some of Oklahoma City’s suburbs.

HD 59 (Leaning R, 4.1%) — Rob Johnson ®, a staffer for U. S. Rep Tom Cole, won by 6 points in this west-central Oklahoma district.

HD 64 (Leaning D, 0.9%) — Ann Coody ® — former Lawton MacArthur High School principal — won by 2.6% in once solidly Democratic Comanche County.

HD 73 (Solid D) — Jabar Shumate (D) wins this heavily Democratic north Tulsa district with 87% of the vote. Republican Sharla Walker has good community credentials, and I saw more yard signs for her than I would have expected, but registration trumps all in District 73.

HD 78 (Leaning D, 2.1%) — Jeannie McDaniel (D) lost in the in-person voting, but did well enough in the absentee balloting to win by 34 votes. That’s the second squeaker this year in Midtown Tulsa involving a crony of former Mayor Susan Savage — former Fire Chief Tom Baker (D) won reelection to the City Council by only 24 votes. David Schaffer ® is giving serious thought to paying for a recount, and I think he should. While the Republicans don’t need this seat for a majority, they do need a cushion — and if McDaniel did in fact win this seat, she will be as hard to dislodge as Mary Easley, and may very well use the seat as a launching pad for higher office.

HD 86 (Likely D) — John Auffet (D) won with 61% in the seat formerly held by House Speaker Larry Adair.

HD 92 (Leaning D, 1.5%) — Attorney Richard Daniel Morrisette (D) won by 263 votes — 3 points — in southern Oklahoma City.

HD 97 (Likely D) — Mike Shelton (D) won 67-33 over Harold Roberts, in northeast Oklahoma County.

That's... odd

Somewhere in Ohio (Franklin County?) there’s a precinct named “Gahanna 1B”.

Here are some of the results from Gahanna 1B:

Senate:
Fingerhut (Dem) 180
Voinivich (Rep) 422

House:
Brown (Dem) 185
Tiberi (Rep) 408

Prop. 1 (gay marriage)
No 255
Yes 352

President:
Kerry (Dem) 260
Bush (Rep) 4258

Raw data from this. See pages 23 & 285.

Links from this.

UPDATE: Drudge links to the AP report “Machine Error Gives Bush Extra Ohio Votes”. See also this.

All Politics Is Local - Dems Learn This Lesson

Not all politics is at the national level. Colorado Democrats figured that out this year and made a large impact in a “red state”. An impact that might be felt in future federal elections.

What did they do? In a year dominated by the presidential election they poured their money into state-level elections. As a result they took over the Colorado state house and state senate. This was done with financing of four liberal donors to the cause - Pat Stryker, Jared Polis, Tim Gill, and Rutt Bridges. Together they contributed to the bulk of a $2 million fund that outspent their Republican counterparts 3-to-1.

This money was enough to swing the Colorado House and Senate into Democratic control for the first time in decades. And this was done in a Red/Republican state.

Now the Republican governor, a possible presidential candidate in 2008, must deal for the first time with a hostile legislature. Depending on how he handles this change of events, this could hurt his chances of succeeding in the 2008 presidential race.

With their newfound power, there is the chance that the Democrats can establish a beach head that will allow them to control the gerrymander in Colorado, resulting from the 2010 census. While that may seem a long way out, the power of incumbency will ensure that this election will reverberate into future elections. Affecting both state and federal elections.

George Soros spent over $20 million this year trying to affect the presidential election this year. It didn’t work, Bush was still reelected. Now suppose Soros had spent this same money trying to affect politics at the state level instead of the national level. He might have been able to affect several state houses and, ultimately, a few governorships - the best launching pads for Presidents (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter).

So, will the Democratic party notice what happened in Colorado and replicate it in other states? Will the Republican party notice and adjust their tactics accordingly? I suspect the Republican party, awash with its national success, will see the Colorado results as an anomoly. I believe the Democratic party, even in its current state of upheaval, will learn this new lesson (at least in some states). The effects will be seen in the 2006 and 2008 elections.

“So”, you say, it’s only local politics who cares? Realize this, a “Red State” now has two Democratic senators. Who do you think spent their money better this election season - George Soros or the four Colorado millionaires with much less money?

Students Arrested Protesting President Bush's Re-election

About 250 Bard College students protested the presidential election results on Friday claiming George Bush was not the legitimate winner.

The protesters marched from campus to the center of the Hudson Valley village of Red Hook and blocked traffic at by staging a 45-minute sit-in:

“George Bush is not our president, and we reject him as our president,” protester Gabe Rey-Goodlatt said. “He’s a non-elected president who stole the election again in 2004.”

Twelve students were charged with disorderly conduct after becoming confrontational with officers.

From California Yankee.

So ... Now What?

[Update: I’m keeping this post up front all day … there’s new news just below. Also, for new readers, typically this sort of thing is on the Publisher’s Desk, a page you may not have yet seen. ~ Alan]

Well, there you go. Whew. Exhaaaaale.

It’s over. Right, Left, or Nader … it’s done.

Boy.

We started this page on June 8th, 2003, with a post that read Democratic Presidential Hopefuls In Eastern Iowa. And with that, the blogging of the race here was on … before Dean, before Blogs for Bush, before them all.

2,981 entries, 17,592 comments, and two nominating conventions later, it’s over.

Want a walk down memory lane? Click any of the categories over in the left-hand column under “Search The Post,” like “Clark” or “Moseley-Braun” or “Boston” …

.
..
…
….
…..
……
…….

(cough cough)

Ummm. Yes.

So … now what?

Keep this page? Make it about politics in general? Sort of a National Journal for the People?

Kill it? Relegate it to the archives (ours and that of the Library of Congress)?

Leave it here, like the Monolith in 2001 … a sentinel of something that came before, that we still don’t fully understand, but if we examine, we gain new knowledge?

Or should we just drink a beer, look back at all the news, all the history, and in particular, all the posts from our 86 citizen journalist “Command Post Pajamhadeen” over the past three days, and say, “boy, that was fun?”

I’d like to know … what would you like to see next?

Alternate Universe: Bush Lost

Ok, I know we’re all pretty happy with Bush winning re-election; But let’s turn the tables a little bit. Say Ohio went the other way? Post the articles you would’ve written in the light of a President-elect Kerry.

Cross-posted at Extraordinary Convergence

Prop 62 and Goodbye

It has now been one whole day since the most important election decision I can remember – of course, I’m talking about prop. 62 here in Cali. The votes are in and it lost by 55/45… sigh. As I noted in this post, prop 62 had the chance to give Republicans a shot in the state. Unfortunately, not only did the Democrats see through the ploy, the California Republican party decided to throw itself on the sword of futility again, and also fought hard to defeat the measure (this is the party that stumbled all over themselves to nominate Bill Jones – who could not win in California if it was a single candidate race – rather than Rirodan even though Rirodan was beating Davis in the general opinion poles by double digits). Too bad.

I’d like to thank Michele and Alan for giving me the chance to blog this election. It has been great fun, and hopefully I will get to stay on and do some more writing for Command Post.

Trolling around the web today, I would say the following were my favorite quotes…

“The Democrats are never going to get America to come to them; they must go to America”

“Liberty, if it means anything, is the right to tell people what they don’t want to hear”

“If we have any chance of ending the sniping and bitterness that characterise the current political scene, it’s going to start with Republicans being gracious winners. If you have to indulge your schadenfreude, do it silently by lurking on Democratic websites and reading hair-tearing left-wing editorials, not by alienating people with whom we’d like to eventually build a better America.”

From the “Europeans don’t understand the U.S.” department…

“The families of people in the military will win it for Kerry.”

From the Rather…

“One would expect that the blogging machine which the White House and the Bush-Cheney campaign has used for any number of purposes over their four years…” (Hey Karl, I never got my check ;-) )

From the “you know your conspiracy theory is in trouble when it requires you to believe: (1) that Florida provides the returns for races in Ohio (?), (2) you actually believe any county in Ohio would vote Green for president, but none in California, New York or Washington” department…

“Early returns from Florida showed the Green Party candidate leading President Bush and Sen. Kerry in two Ohio counties. They later appeared corrected, but raised eyebrows among liberal bloggers.”

“This auction is for whatever relevance Mr. Moore has seven days from now” (hat tip )

Stay Free

Bush Outlines Agenda For Second Term

A minority president no more, President Bush sketched a second-term agenda Thursday that includes fighting the worldwide war on terror and seeking tax overhaul and fundamental changes in Social Security at home.

“I’ve earned capital in this election and I’m going to spend it for what I’ve told the people I’d spend it on,” he said.

Bush also pledged to pursue the foreign policy that was a flashpoint in the presidential campaign and has sparked criticism by some American allies in Europe.

“There is a certain attitude in the world by some that says that it’s a waste of time to try to promote free societies in parts of the world,” he said, a reference to Iraq in particular. “I’ve heard that criticism,” he said.

“Remember, I went to London to talk about our vision of spreading freedom throughout the greater Middle East and I fully understand that that might rankle some and be viewed by some as folly.”

Told by a reporter that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat had died, Bush said he intended to “continue to work for a free Palestinian state that’s at peace with Israel.” Later reports said that Arafat, in a coma in Paris, was still alive.

Read more…

FOX: Ashcroft to Resign

FOX TV is reporting that Ashcroft will resign his post, possibly in January. CNN is reporting two weeks.

There’s also talk of Colin Powell leaving the Bush team.

Bush will be holding a press conference momentarily.

Developing.

Michael Moore's Last Words on November 1st.....

….. before he severed the links on his website to any of the content. But despite being known for his thoroughness and precision, he unaccountably left the site in place : where an intrepid TCP reporter (or 10-year-old child) could access it in, oh, 5 seconds?. So here’s a quote from his Day Before post.

There’s a reason Bush calls Kerry the Number One Liberal in the Senate – THAT’S BECAUSE HE IS THE NUMBER ONE LIBERAL IN THE SENATE! What more do you want? My friends, this is about as good as it gets when voting for the Democrat. We don’t have the #29 Liberal running or the #14 Liberal or even the #2 Liberal – we got #1! When has that ever happened?
Those of us who may be to the left of the #1 liberal Democrat should remember that this year conservative Democrats have had to make a far greater shift in their position to back Kerry than we have. We’re the ones always being asked to make the huge compromises and to always vote holding our noses. No nose holding this time. This #1 liberal is not the tweedledee to Bush’s tweedledum.

It seems that many Americans believed him, and voted accordingly.

That’s it. See you at the polls – and at the victory party tomorrow night.

And from November 2nd, as polls opened :

It’s just a quick call to say “hi” and “PLEASE get to the polls as soon as possible.”

Hence the “fictitious” pro-Kerry results from the Exit polls…

P.S. To the millions of 18 to 29-year-olds I’ve met or seen on this tour, I truly believe YOU are the ones who are going to make the difference today.

…by staying away in droves, they did. So who said Michael Moore was an Elephant Irrelevant?

Boulder County Still Counting Ballots

After the ‘hanging chad’ issues of the 2000 election Boulder County in Colorado changed their balloting system. They decided that the most secure and reliable method would be to go to paper ballots.

This was expected to be a little slower, but Boulder County election officials expected the counts to finish by late-morning on Wednesday. It’s now Thursday and they are still counting.

This morning KOA radio reported that the $1.5 million scanning system couldn’t rotate the images. Staffing also became an issue. From the Boulder Daily Camera:

A lack of staffing and poorly trained election judges appeared to slow the counting process. At about 11 a.m. Wednesday, with fewer than 40 percent of the total vote tabulated, several ballot-scanning machines sat idle as dozens of boxes of ballots waited to be counted.

David Leeds, chairman of the Boulder County Republican Party, said some scanning machines weren’t being used because election officials couldn’t find bipartisan pairs of judges to staff the “resolution committees” that issue verdicts on ballots the new vote-counting machines reject. He said he had Republicans available, but they were twiddling their thumbs, waiting for their Democratic counterparts to show up.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” Leeds said. “This is Boulder. You can’t throw a rock without hitting a Democrat.”

County spokesman Jim Burrus said the county had enough bipartisan judges. But officials temporarily had run out of people to staff the third spot on each resolution committee — the computer operator. At some point, he said, volunteers and election workers needed to get some sleep.

“The people who had been working since the wee hours of the morning have gone home, and we’re waiting for their replacements to show up,” he said. “There’s a little gap going on here.”

Several judges at one station who were ready to work stared in frustration at the computer screen, which was demanding a password. One of the judges explained that only three people know that code — two had gone home, and the other was busy.

Meanwhile, two dozen volunteers sat at a table in the middle of the room alphabetizing early-voting election documents. Although officials have to complete that task, it doesn’t assist in the counting process. But Burrus said those volunteers weren’t trained to sit on resolution committees.

And some glitches took large amounts of time. For one batch of about 300 ballots, election judges had to confirm every race on every ballot by hand — a process that took hours.

Cummings on the Beeb's coverage

Dominic Cummings, former Tory advisor and now the director of the New Frontiers Foundation gives his view of the media coverage of the Bush victory.

The BBC and mainstream media were so hopeful and sure of a Kerry victory that they have repeatedly distorted news, while simultaneously accusing the Republicans of lies, and have demonstrated that they are incapable of distinguishing between (a) their centre-left opinion and (b) an attempt at discovering objective truth.  As Dan Rather famously said, the New York Times “is not Left, it’s centre”. 

In programme after programme, you see BBC interviewers attacking the Right using the language and arguments of the Left, yet when they have, say, Robin Cook on the Today programme, they always ask questions like – “so why do you think the latest move by Bush is a disaster?”  They never ask a question like – “since you supported the Kosovo war and that was done without a UN mandate because the Russians vetoed, why do you now argue that America needs a UN mandate?”  If the subject is Europe, the Right is attacked with Blair’s arguments, but, say, Blair is attacked from the point of view of “why don’t you do more to sell Europe to the public?” – he is never asked, “given the EU’s stagnant economies and declining demographics, economies and universities, shouldn’t Britain steer clear of a project that seems to many as though it’s going down the tubes?”

In all the debates about bias with BBC executives and journalists, they simply never understand the force of this point – they simply say “we aren’t biased, we balance programmes fairly”. They have, along with Jon Snow et al, entirely misunderstood how people outside their dinner party circuit think – they get away with it in Britain because of the enormous crisis of the Conservative Party since the late 1980s but they have not got away with it with the US election.  Jim Naughtie’s report this morning describing Bush’s policy as “divisive – even unilateral [ie. unilateral is worse than being divisive]”, Humphrys saying yesterday that four more years is “a bit scary”… It is inconceivable that anybody other than “an ideologue”, “an ultra-religious person”, “self-intersted big business” etc could possibly think the Iraq war a good idea or Bush referable to Kerry. 

They just don’t get it.  If the CP in Britain could rejuvenate, the same people from the Independent to the BBC would get a similar shock to the one they have just had.

As a tiny example of the psychology of BBC employees, check this blog by a BBC employee who laments the victory of “a bible bashing chimp”

http://bayman.blogspot.com/

The BBC’s behaviour discredits them as analysts and raises major questions about the license fee paid to a state broadcaster populated mostly by people of a particular political perspective who wrongly think their views are “mainstream” and “centre” rather than centre-left and who consistently distort political debate.  There are exceptions – people who are on the Left but are also neutral, and people on the Right who are also professional (like A Neil), but the overall thrust is clear.  We consequently have a far less diverse and professional media than America and our democratic culture is paying the price. 

This combination of poor professionalism and bias from senior BBC people is, of course, one of the reasons why they handled the Gilligan affair so incompetently – an organisation that every day criticises or sneers at other institutions’ errors made under the spotlight blundered themselves in elementary ways and blew what was objectively a potentially strong hand. 

The next BBC story line?  “America is full of (a) stupid people, and (b) religious maniacs – only this can explain the irrational result.” 

We can safely predict that the BBC’s coverage will continue along the lines of their recent series on Al Qaeda (The Power of Nightmares, advertised by somebody saying that “it simply does not exist”).  It is very unlikely that we will see programmes asking European politicians – “just why is it that America enjoys such higher standards of living than Europe, why is it that their dominance in higher education and hi-tech industries continues to increase, and why has the EU Commission recently published a report saying that three-quarters of EU graduates that study in America do not return to Europe?”  The current mentality will not change until there is another major terrorist attack, after which the BBC mindset will be stunned by the public’s reaction…

10 Things Kerry Should Have Changed

OK - let’s not get too carried away with Bush’s victory.

The fact of the matter is that the result of the election hung on just 68,000 voters in Ohio. That’s just 1.25% of the total Ohio vote. If 68,000 people in Ohio voted for Kerry instead of Bush - then we would have had a dead heat and the Ohio ballots would be in the courts today - giving us the 2000 election all over again.

John Kerry came within 68,000 votes of possibly winning the Presidency. Let that sink in for a moment.

Personally, I think John Kerry screwed up in a big way. His campaign was an embarrassment of poor decision making. Looking back - here are the 10 things Kerry should have changed which would have won him the election.

Continue reading - No Way to Run a Campaign - 20/20 Hindsight

French Post-Election Reactions

From Le Monde as translated by Google, and slightly smoothed out by me :

The fate of the presidency of the only hyperpower is in the hands of those who enter the ballots in Ohio and, perhaps, if there is dispute, of those of the courts. And even of the supreme Court as in 2000. What an image for a democracy which is given as an example to the world, with these voters voting late in the night in Ohio, these votes anticipated, conditional, these defective voting machines, these calculations without end!

Such a disorder, unimaginable in the majority of the other democratic countries, is not with the honor of America. And it is alarming that the fate of the world is suspended with such an antiquated system.

How very… French.

And from the AFP via Expatica :

Sixty-five percent of French citizens think US President George W. Bush’s re-election is a “bad thing”, according to an opinion poll published here Thursday.

Just 23 percent of respondents felt the Republican president’s victory is “a good thing,” with 12 percent expressing no opinion either way, the poll published in Le Parisien newspaper showed.

On future Franco-US relations, at a low over France’s opposition to the US-led military action in Iraq, almost three-quarters (74 percent) of those questioned expected to see no change while 12 percent looked forward to improved ties and just seven percent expected things to get worse.

The CSA polling agency questioned 780 people aged 15 or over by telephone on Wednesday.

Other stories demonstrating French Cultural Superiority in Expatica include the almost-routine vandalism of jewish cemeteries, rather too much interest in other crypts, and of course, European Environmentalisme. Quelle Fromage!

Public Service Announcement

For a few hours Tuesday evening, I couldn't reach the Command Post; not via RSS, Web browser, or blog posting application. So I posted the articles intended for TCP to my personal blog, PS.

This may seem like a callow effort to promote traffic. Let me dissuade you from such an assumption. If you came here looking for updates on North Carolina's election, and think you may have missed something, feel free to visit. (Note that the link to PS is to the "NC Politics" category only, and not the main page.)

If, however, you weren't relying solely on TCP, and managed to get your info-fix elsewhere during heavy traffic times, don't bother. I just thought that those (dozen or so of you who may actually be) riveted by, rather than merely curious about, North State politics might appreciate the heads-up.

Press reaction muted...

Amazingly the British press has not reacted as viciously as one would expect. We suspect it might because they are still in shock from the loss. Jon P who is a member of the press and I have decided it will probably come full bore in the Sunday papers. The Independent showed it’s class by putting some unflattering pictures of various crisises in the past 4 years; with the headline 4 more Years.

The Sun’s reaction on the other hand is factual with a twist of humour. They have some suggestions for Kerry for his post-loss lifestyle. Their upmarket (now only a tabloid) sister-paper is just as neutral on the win and, of course, the Telegraph welcomes the result

The BBC is warming up all usual suspects to bleat about the result including Jesse Jackson. The Guardian’s reaction has been less shrill than we expected them to be. I am sure they warming up for some bile filled rants in the next few days.

Of course, the Mirror has distinguished itself with the headline.. How can 59,054,087 be so dumb?

If you want the reasonable left reaction to both the result and the bleeting of the far left hordes over the top reaction; visit Harry’s Place.

Three state positions still undecided

From the News & Observer's Kristin Collins, Todd Silberman and Jay Price, 3 top jobs await winner; Results for agriculture commissioner, schools superintendent and auditor still too close to call:

A day after the election, candidates in three Council of State races were still running the numbers, wondering who had won.

Some counties had corrections to make, and almost 75,000 provisional ballots remained uncounted, enough to throw the races for agriculture commissioner, superintendent of public instruction and state auditor into turmoil, perhaps for days.

State election officials said the final count of the provisional ballots, given to voters who recently moved into a district or have other problems that can't be resolved on Election Day, probably won't be complete until early next week.

Results in the agriculture commissioner race just seemed to grow murkier Wednesday, as changing tallies put Democrat Britt Cobb and Republican Steve Troxler in a dead heat.

The count late Wednesday showed Cobb edging Troxler by 1,538 votes. ...

In the superintendent of schools race, Bill Fletcher, a Wake County school board member, finished with a narrow edge of 3,231 votes. That would make him the first Republican elected to the job.

But Fletcher's Democratic opponent, former state school administrator June Atkinson, was not conceding. She hopes to become the first female state superintendent of schools.

"Right now, it's just wait and watch," said John Beatty, Atkinson's campaign manager.

Atkinson had hoped for a bigger lift from Democratic Gov. Mike Easley's strong showing, Beatty said. "We were hoping that his coattails would have helped." ...

The results of the rematch race for state auditor were so close that the man many named as the winner -- Republican challenger Les Merritt of Zebulon -- refused to claim victory.

He held a cushion of about 48,000 votes over three-term incumbent Ralph Campbell, a former Raleigh city councilman and a member of one of the city's most prominent families.

Still, that was less than 2 percent of the votes, and theoretically, provisional ballots could push Campbell close enough that he could seek a recount.

Merritt said that he wouldn't press things.

"Look, he's been in office for 12 years, and if the numbers (allow it), he's got every right to seek a recount," Merritt said. "I don't see anything wrong with that at all. If I'm successful, at the end of the day I'd still like to be able to work with Ralph on the transition."

The Council of State in North Carolina includes most of the Cabinet officials. It's one of those state-level things that not every state has. Perhaps to be explained in a future post; but you can think of it like any blue-ribbon panel: intended to do nothing, but do it splendidly.

Election Night in LA

The Big Message

When it is all said and done, I think this is the most important political message I saw all night.

I was so looking forward to using the satirical “John Kerry is not my President” for this entry’s headline, but the senator has just made his call to the White House and conceded the election to George. Oh well, current event humor has a thousand ways to die.

No Anti-Bush?

I am little hung over from my election night excursion, but otherwise, I am in good shape. You can almost feel the fallout from the election in the air here in Los Angeles. When I got to the Psychobable where I have my morning coffee I noticed that the anti-Bush sign on the tip jar (it had Bush in a turban set against a background of oil pumps) has disappeared. Now that he has won, are they no longer anti-Bush? I may be reading more into things than are actually there, but as I look around me, no one seems to be smiling. My guess is they are all shell-shocked. Not as shell-shocked as what I witnessed last night, however.

I left the house last night at around 7:30, and started my evening at Akbar. Akbar is in the Sliver Lake area of Los Angeles. Silver Lake is that “artist section” that every city has, filled with real and wannabe actors, writers, filmmakers, dancers, etc. They live there mainly because the rents are cheap in those apartments that one suspect are not quite up to code. There is also a significant amount of gays in Silver Lake (gays with no money live in Silver Lake, those with money live on the West Side).

The Akbar

The crowd was decidedly anti-Bush, and on edge when I went in. I had looked at the numbers on the net before I left, so I know that NM, FL, OH, NV and AR were basically Bush and the media just was too afraid to call it (which I am fine with, BTW – I would rather they call it late than too early), but no-one at the bar knew that.

The Contenders

I grabbed myself a Boddingtons (mmmmm…. Boddingtons) and headed into the room where they had a projection TV set up. The place was decorated with signs that said things like “Four More Wars” (which I thought was kind of clever) and “Barons for Bush” (Barons? Do we still have Barons?). Though I did think the blood soaked red, white and blue decorations was a little over the top.

mmmmmmmmmm

I sat down next to a woman who was with her boyfriend and we started getting into a conversation about the Electoral College. She did not know how the Electoral College worked, so I explained it to her and how it came about. She thanked me and said whenever she had asked anyone about the Electoral College they had just treated her like she was stupid.

Those Evil Barons

There was one point where the broadcasts where displaying the results of the various anti-gay marriage initiatives; which was met with a mixture of groans and cheers. At first I was confused since I would guess that about half the crowd was gay, but apparently the cheers were coming from people who thought that the series of “yes” wins meant people were voting for gay marriage. It had not occurred to many in this crowd that eleven states would go out of their way to create initiatives that would explicitly ban (They do not know anyone who is against gay marriage, so they assume most of the country agrees with them). I had to tell the woman next to me that these were votes banning gay marriage. She had thought that gay marriage was already legal in several states (her uncle was married during the short window in Massachusetts), and I had to explain what the situation was to her.

The Bloody R,W & B

I have to admit that I felt for these people. Personally, I have no problem with gay marriage or homosexuality, and it must be difficult to see in stark black and white how many people in the country do. I believe in democracy, so I will support a popular referendum, but I still have the right to say that it is wrong.

The Continental

I decided to move on. Next stop… The Continental in Beverly Hills. The Continental is a super club, and is known for its martini (mmmmmm… martini). I had a Bombay Sapphire martini, a little dirty, with an olive.

Oh No, It’s Bush!

I thought since I was in an upscale neighborhood that things would be a little more subdued, and there might even be a few republicans in the audience. Boy was I wrong. I do not know if it was the different neighborhood, or if it was just the fact that it was clearer that Bush was going to win, but people were visibly angry, and were not afraid to make their opinions known. There was a guy behind me who kept yelling at the television screen. The most vivid quote I remember was when NBC was reporting live from Ohio, “All the people in Cleveland should F***ing die. You killed us. Don’t you see you killed us. You have no jobs! You have no jobs! Everybody in Cleveland should be strangled.” And then later, “You bet they should call it. They should start f***ing strangling people.”

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

After about an hour of people realizing that Ohio was not going to be called (and I suspect realizing that Bush would take it) the disappointed patrons cleared the place pretty quickly.

Got Dots?

So I moved on to the Lava Lounge. On my way there I saw one of the buses with the “Got Dots” campaign that’s been floating around during this campaign. For this election they got rid of the punch cards and replaced them with similar cards that are marked with a small ink pen instead (no hanging chads). I guess they figured letting everyone know would help with voter turnout (as I posted here it did not work).

Lava Lounge

The lounge was very subdued when I arrived at around 11:30pm. Located in the heart of Hollywood (located between Hollywood Blvd. And Sunset Blvd.) it attracts a very laid back 30 something crowd. They were as laid back as usual, despite the fact that I am sure everyone there was a Kerry supporter (and at this point, all but the most naïve had to know that Bush had won). Everyone was cool – they were disappointed but did not seem especially angry. I had a Corona (forgot to take a picture – I was a little buzzed by then) and went home about an hour later.

The Republic Will Survive

However people feel, I suspect the Republic will survive.

Stay Free

Department of Redundancy Department II

CNN is reporting “Just over half — 51 percent — of 621 American adults surveyed said they were pleased with the outcome of the presidential election”. Well duh, as noted in the next paragraph, “He [Bush] also picked up 51 percent of the popular vote on his way to victory.” What part of, “Bush won with 51%,” do they not understand?

I would file this under the “I can’t believe they acutally voted for Bush and are happy about it” department, but I suspect this is just a bit of journalistic laziness.

How the USA Voted - County By County, 2000-2004

From USA Today :

The Situation in 2000

.

The Situation in 2004

.

And from Modern Crusader,

The Situation as some now see it

Bush lessons for the Tories?

In times of insecurity, clear leadership has a great appeal. That is why Bush won.
Many self-styled sophisticates on the left, both in the USA and in Europe regarded Bush as a simpleton for his constant repetition of a simple message. Kerry was more nuanced, whatever that means. In reality he flip-flopped.
He voted for the war, then he voted against it. It was the “wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time”, or some such soundbyte.

George W Bush, for all his faults, gave people a real sense of what he was about.

Even if he sometimes used the wrong words, everyone knew what he meant.

There are lessons in this for UK Conservatives.

Be bold. Don’t be afraid to offend at least some of the people, some of the time. If nobody takes offence, chances are, nobody has noticed what you are saying. Don’t follow the opinion polls with your policies. Leadership implies you have something of your own to contribute to political debate.

Be consistent. If you don’t take a line and stick to it, you will confuse the hell out of your own activists who are supposed to be out there spreading the message, let alone the public.

Don’t try to swim too much against people’s preconceptions of you in vain pursuit of your opponents’ supporters unless you really do intend a permanent change of direction.

Conservatives have been promising to match Labour’s spending plans, except in a few minor areas, without raising taxes. At the same time, Oliver Letwin is trying to persuade people that Labour would have to make substantial tax rises if re-elected for a third term. Yes, Ollie’s sums might add up, but I don’t seriously expect the public to believe both propositions at the same time. The detail of the plans might support this but the simple message that you can’t have more spending without higher taxes is far more intuitive, even if it might be wrong. The type of person likely to vote Labour, come what may, will believe the Tories will make massive cuts to public spending, whatever Oliver Letwin’s protestations to the contrary. Others might secretly hope for lower taxes and believe that they are willing to take a chance with the Tories on public services but be unwilling to say it publicly or even to pollsters for fear of the opprobrium that may be heaped on them.

Let me propose a radical departure that may help the Conservative Partybridge this credibility gap. If Gordon Brown increases spending in the next budget, as he surely will, the Tories should abandon the policy of matching Labour’s spending pledges. Instead they should issue a statement such as this:

We can no longer pledge to match Labour’s spending plans because it would be grossly irresponsible to do so. They would lead to significant tax increases. If Labour is re-elected,taxes will rise. A lot. While we will continue to increase spending on public services by at least the level of inflation in our first term of office, the main challenge will be to find enough efficiency savings to prevent those tax rises.

by Wolfie

Media Bias at CNN? Say it ain't so...

Well, the picture says it all.

[click for full size]

Go and check it out for yourself.

Cross-posted at Extraordinary Convergence.

George Soros' Future Plans

From Newshounds “We watch Fox so you don’t have to” :

When asked what he planned to do if Kerry lost the election, Soros said that he plans to enter a monastery for a time because he will need to contemplate what is wrong with the people of this country.

Hat Tip : Tim Blair

Another first for the blogosphere

Via Greensboro is Talking, Blogger wins election:

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong on this, but just a quick note that with County Commissioner Jeff Thigpen’s win over Payne in the Register of Deeds race, he becomes the first blogger in Guilford County to win an election.  It will be interesting to hear from Jeff just how much he thinks the blog might have helped him considering the name recognition he already had coming off the county board. ...

I don't know if Thigpen is the first blogger to win an election. And if I'm not mistaken, he already held an elected office, during which time he started blogging. So "Politician turned blogger-politician wins election" might be more accurate. Unless you read the "in Guilford County" part to mean that Thigpen is the first blogger to win an election in Guilford county. Still, it has that dawn-of-an-era feel.

Also, please comment if I'm wrong on any of Thigpen's biographical particulars.

A Missed Opportunity For Coors

From Denver’s Channel 4 (CBS):

Salazar’s victory bucked a nationwide trend that gave the GOP at least 54 seats in the Senate, a net gain of four.

Campbell said he would have pitched in to help Coors lure Democratic voters — support that Campbell said is a must. “I just wasn’t asked until the last couple of days,” he said late Tuesday, and by then he had other commitments.

“I can’t do more if I am not asked to do it,” Campbell said.

Campbell helped Republican Sen. Wayne Allard through a tough re-election fight in 2002 by appearing in a TV ad shortly before Election Day.

Campbell is well-liked in his home area of southwestern Colorado. But Salazar beat Coors in La Plata County, the most populous in that corner of the state, probably by appealing to moderate Republicans.

“You cannot win a statewide race in Colorado without crossover (votes),” Campbell said.

Democratic Wave Of A Purple State

The electoral news on the national front is obscuring the results, on the local level, in Colorado.

Before the election, Republicans held the state senate by a slim 18-17 margin. It’s not too suprising to hear that the Democrats took one seat and regained the state senate. What is suprising is that house Republicans started yesterday with a 37-28 advantage and now they are a 34-31 minority (depending on final counts).

This Red State has a Blue Legislature…and two ‘Blue’ senators.

Colorado might be better described as ‘Purple’, not ‘Red’.

So how did this happen in a state with more registered Republicans (37%)than Democrats (31%)? The two primary reasons are the independant nature of the Colorado Voter and poor management by the Republican party.

Colorado is independent. In 1992, Ross Perot got 23% of the vote. In 1996, Dole won but over 140,000 votes went for third-party candidates. In 2000, almost 100,000 voters went for Ralph Nader. This state is used to voting “outside the party lines”.

But ultimately it was bad management by the Republican party. Coors was the only Republican to lose a close senatorial election. Nationally, the other close races broke toward the Republicans. In Colorado Bush won with a margin twice that of his margin nationally. The Republican governor is very popular.

Yet, the state house moves from a 9-point Republican advantage to a 3-point Democratic advantage. That can’t happen without mismanagement.

Who’s to blame in the Republican party? I don’t know.

One person who could pay the price is the Governor - Bill Owens. He’s on the mythical short-list of Republicans who might run for President in 2008. Some in the party might blame him for the losses within the state. But, now he faces a hostile legislature which will force him to issue more vetos and make more unpopular decisions.

One thing I can tell you…the Colorado media has missed the story of the resurging Democratic party and the problems in the state Republican party. There are many stories here and they aren’t being told.

Wisconsin Results

With almost all of the precincts reporting, the state of Wisconsin has finally been called for John Kerry. The state results are as follows:

President: John F. Kerry (D) - 1,488,935 (50%)
U.S. Senate: Russ Feingold (D - incumbent) - 1,632,562 (55%)
U.S. House:
District 1: Paul Ryan (R - incumbent) - 233,343 (65%)
District 2: Tammy Baldwin (D - incumbent) - 251,627 (63%)
District 3: Ron Kind (D - incumbent) - 204,870 (56%)
District 4: Gwen Moore (D) - 212,280 (70%)
District 5: Jim Sensenbrenner (R - incumbent) - 271,167 (67%)
District 6: Tom Petri (R - incumbent) - 238,611 (67%)
District 7: David Obey (D - incumbent) - 240,988 (86%)
District 8: Mark Green (R - incumbent) - 248,076 (70%)

If Iowa’s electoral college votes go for George W. Bush, as it appears they will, then Bush will have 286 to John Kerry’s 252 electoral votes.

Correcting my Correction - I was Right!

Yesterday I posted this post correcting my previous post claiming that the voter turnout did not seem unusual in California. Well, the numbers are in, and I was right! Here’s the numbers from 2000 when 10,428,632 people voted. And here’s the numbers from 2004 when 9,944,625 people voted. That’s right, the turnout actually went down this year. See, this is what I get for allowing myself to believe I am wrong - who ever heard of such a thing… ;-).

Ah, but what about the national vote? In 2000 104,339,125 people voted, and in 2004 115,328,260. 10%. That’s it. 10%. That’s the giant animated voter turnout increase that was supposed to revolutionize our democracy. Right.

The problem is that people do not make a distinction between getting people to register (which is easy, they just have to fill out a form) and getting them to vote. The more things change, the more things stay the same. But sometimes when a meme sticks, there is just no getting rid of it - check out the toon.

In other news, I am listening to Air America today (I thought it would be entertaining after they lost - apparently Air America cannot be entertaining under any circustances). Here’s the most enligtening quote from Janeane Garofalo, “I want the Archie Bunker contingent in the cracker belt to suffer.”

And they wonder why they lost.

Stay Free

Maine Republican Nonsense

Sorry, but I don’t support Chris’ conclusion of what’s going on in Maine. If BD is right and the candidates won there by more than 6,000 votes. There’s no reason for the Republican Party to challenge it. Also if those college students are from out-of-state, they have to vote in their home-state elections for the Presidency and the local elections in their home-state.

I’m currently a student at Brigham Young University-Idaho which is in Rexburg, Idaho. I talked to the election board which is just downtown a few streets from where I lived and they said I cannot vote unless my permanent status was in Idaho. They told me to basically request an absentee ballot from Washington State which is my home-state. So I did and I voted for the President in the election as well as the local elections for example my district US Representative, Washington State Governorship, etc the list goes on.

This is nonsense if the Democrats won by more than 6,000 votes as it will change nothing. Nonetheless, those college students should not be voting in the Maine Elections. It is voter fraud if they had voted for the Presidency regardless of Kerry or Bush in both their home-states via absentee ballots and Maine.

Update: It seems that I was right about the number of votes in Maine. Chris was arguing about 6,000 votes by college students being challenged by Republicans and it still won’t change the fate of the Democrat winners.

Fox News has the results

I’m doing the math for Chris on District 2
District 2: Michael Michaud’s 188,278 votes to Brian Hamel’s 128,834 votes
Subtract 6,000 votes from Michael Michaud’s votes which will make it 182,278 votes. Chances of Michael Michaud losing his spot? 0%

Mayflower Hill Stands By Its Story

Mayflower Hill stands by its story.

My source for the story— initially published on Mayflower Hill— was Colby College Republicans President Steven A. Bogden. Mr. Bogden, since I published the story, has tried to deny it, but I have cell phone records, cell phone text messages that he sent to other people, and other independent sources to verify my account.

The story I broke was muddled by BD more than a little bit. I did write that “the Maine State Republicans are preparing to file a lawsuit that would disqualify thousands of votes from college students whose primary residency is out of state.” But that does not mean a law suit will be filed, and I certainly hope that one is not filed. What it does mean is that preparations are being made to file a law suit. As I went on to write, “At the moment, the Maine GOP is trying to determine how to argue that Maine state law, which allows out of state registrants, does not supersede voting laws in other states.” If they feel they cannot make that case, then it is ulikely we will see them in court.

BD’s point about Michaud winning easily in the second district is entirely moot. In the runup to the election, and when I released the story, everyone believed the Michaud/Hamel contest to be a tight one. At the time I learned of the Maine GOP’s efforts to suppress student votes, not a vote had yet been counted.

Whether or not throwing out student ballots in Maine would actually make a difference at this point is irrelevant to the fact that the intention was to impact the 2nd district race. Further, disenfranchising thousands of people is not to be taken lightly, no matter what the margin of victory. This is deplorable behaviour, and it does not surprise me in the least the Maine Republicans, and the Maine College Republicans, would want to deny their part in it.

Edward's "Concession"

I found this sentence in John Edward’s concession to be pretty telling:

EDWARDS: Thank you. Well, it was a long night and a long morning, and even though the outcome won’t change, I want you to know that we will continue to fight for every vote. (APPLAUSE) Because every vote matters in our America and we will honor each one of you who stood with us and who stood in line to change your country. We believe in you. We didn’t stop fighting for you when this campaign began and we won’t stop fighting for you when this campaign ends.

So, to paraphrase, “we will honor every to-be-counted vote for us only, and forget the conservatives!” At least, that’s the way it sounded to me.

Cross posted at Extraordinary Convergence.

Bush's Speech

Following is a transcript of President George W. Bush’s speech on Wednesday, as recorded by e-Media.

BUSH: The voters turned out in records numbers and delivered an historic victory. (APPLAUSE) Earlier today, Senator Kerry called with his congratulations. We had a really good phone call. He was very gracious. Senator Kerry waged a spirited campaign, and he and his supporters can be proud of their efforts. (APPLAUSE) Laura and I wish Senator Kerry and Teresa and their whole family all our best wishes. America has spoken, and I’m humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens.

With that trust comes a duty to serve all Americans. And I will do my best to fulfill that duty every day as your president. (APPLAUSE) There are many people to thank and my family comes first. (APPLAUSE) Laura is the love of my life.

I’m glad you love her too. (LAUGHTER) I want to thank our daughters who joined their dad for his last campaign. (APPLAUSE) I appreciate the hard work of my sister and brothers.

I especially want to thank my parents for their loving support. (APPLAUSE) I’m grateful to the vice president and Lynne and their daughters who have worked so hard and been such a vital part of our team. (APPLAUSE) The vice president serves America with wisdom and honor and I’m proud to serve beside him.

I want to thank my superb campaign team. I want to thank you all for your hard work. (APPLAUSE) I was impressed every day by how hard and how skillful our team was.

I want to thank Chairman Marc Racicot and… (APPLAUSE) … the campaign manager, Ken Mehlman… (APPLAUSE) … the architect, Karl Rove. (APPLAUSE) I want to thank Ed Gillespie for leading our party so well.

I want to thank the thousands of our supporters across our country. I want to thank you for your hugs on the rope lines. I want thank you for your prayers on the rope lines. I want to thank you for your kind words on the rope lines. I want to thank you for everything you did to make the calls and to put up the signs, to talk to your neighbors and to get out the vote. (APPLAUSE) And because you did the incredible work, we are celebrating today.

There is an old saying, Do not pray for tasks equal to your powers; pray for powers equal to your tasks. In four historic years, America has been given great tasks and faced them with strength and courage. Our people have restored the vigor of this economy and shown resolve and patience in a new kind of war.

Our military has brought justice to the enemy and honor to America. (APPLAUSE) Our nation has defended itself and served the freedom of al mankind. I’m proud to lead such an amazing country, and I’m proud to lead it forward. (APPLAUSE) Because we have done the hard work, we are entering a season of hope.

We will continue our economic progress. We’ll reform our outdated tax code. We’ll strengthen the Social Security for the next generation. We’ll make public schools all they can be. And we will uphold our deepest values of family and faith. We’ll help the emerging democracies of Iraq and Afghanistan… (APPLAUSE) … so they can grow in strength and defend their freedom.

And then our service men and women will come home with the honor they have earned. (APPLAUSE) With good allies at our side, we will fight this war on terror with every resource of our national power so our children can live in freedom and in peace.

Reaching these goals will require the broad support of Americans. So today I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust. A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation. We have one country, one Constitution, and one future that binds us.

And when we come together and work together, there is no limit to the greatness of America. (APPLAUSE) Let me close with a word for the people of the state of Texas.

We have known each other the longest, and you started me on this journey. On the open plains of Texas, I first learned the character of our country: sturdy and honest, and as hopeful as the break of day. I will always be grateful to the good people of my state. And whatever the road that lies ahead, that road will take me home. The campaign has ended, and the United States of America goes forward with confidence and faith.

I see a great day coming for our country and I am eager for the work ahead. God bless you and may God bless America.

Cheney's Speech

Following is a transcript of Vice President Dick Cheney’s speech on Wednesday, as recorded by e-Media.

Thank you all. It’s an honor for me to be here, along with Lynne and our whole family, on this very special afternoon. This was a historic election, and once again I have delivered the state of Wyoming for the Bush-Cheney ticket. This campaign has been a tremendously uplifting experience. We’ve carried the president’s message of hope and optimism across the continent, even to the Aloha State. We’ve worked hard and gained many new friends, and the result is now clear: a record voter turnout and a broad, nationwide victory.

We’re deeply grateful to every person who joined in the effort. Thanks to you, we gained seats in the House of Representatives. Thanks to you, I will be presiding over a larger Republican majority in the United States Senate. Thanks to you, President George W. Bush won the greatest number of popular votes of any presidential candidate in history.

This has been a consequential presidency which has revitalized our economy and reasserted a confident American role in the world. Yet in the election of 2004, we did more than campaign on a record. President Bush ran forthrightly on a clear agenda for this nation’s future and the nation responded by giving him a mandate. Now we move forward to serve and to guard the country we love.

It has been my special privilege to serve as vice president alongside this exceptional American. He’s a man of deep conviction and personal kindness. His leadership is wise and firm and fearless. Those are qualities that Americans like in a president, and those are qualities we will need for the next four years. If ever a man met his moment as leader of this country, that man is George W. Bush.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the president of the United States

Kerry Concession Speech

Following is a transcript of Senator John Kerry’s concession speech on Wednesday.

Thank you so much. Thank you, thank you. I love you. I love you, thank you. Thank you, thank you so much. Thank you so much. You just have no idea how warming and how generous that welcome is, your love is, your affection. And I’m gratified by it. I’m sorry that we got here a little bit late and little bit short. I spoke to President Bush and I offered him and Laura our congratulations on their victory.

We had a good conversation, and we talked about the danger of division in our country and the need — the desperate need for unity, for finding the common ground, coming together. Today I hope that we can begin the healing. In America, it is vital that every vote count, and that every vote be counted. But the outcome should be decided by voters, not a protracted legal process. I would not give up this fight if there was a chance that we would prevail.

But is now clear that even when all the provisional ballots are counted, which they will be, there won’t be enough outstanding votes for us to be able to win Ohio. And therefore we cannot win this election. My friends, it was here that we began our campaign for the presidency and all we had was hope and vision for a better America. It was a privilege and a gift to spend two years traveling this country, coming to know so many of you. I wish that I could just wrap you up in my arms and embrace each and every one of you individually all across this nation. I thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Thank you. Thank you. AUDIENCE MEMBER: (inaudible) loves you. AUDIENCE MEMBER: We still got your back. KERRY: Thank you, man. And I’m… And I assure you, you watch, I’ll still love yours. So hang in there.

I will always be particularly grateful to the colleague that you just heard from who became my partner, my very close friend, an extraordinary leader, John Edwards. And I thank him for everything he did. Thank you, sir.

John and I would be the first to tell you that we owe so much to our families. They’re here with us today. They were with us every single step of the way. They sustained us. They went out on their own and they multiplied our campaign all across this country. No one did this more with grace and with courage and candor, that I love, than my wife Teresa, and I thank her. And our children were there every single step of the way. It was unbelievable. Vanessa, Alex, Chris, Andre and John from my family, and Elizabeth Edwards, who is so remarkable and so strong and so smart.

And Johnny and Kate, who went out there on their own, just like my daughters did. And also Emma Claire and Jack, who were up beyond their bedtime last night, like a lot of us. (APPLAUSE) I want to thank my crewmates and my friends from 35 years ago, that great band of brothers who criss-crossed this country on my behalf for 2004.

They had the courage to speak the truth back then and they spoke it again this year. And for that, I will forever be grateful. And thanks also, as I look around here, to friends and family of a lifetime, some from college, friends made all across the years, and then all across the miles of this campaign. You are so special. You brought the gift of your passion for our country and the possibilities of change. And that will stay with us and with this country forever. Thanks to Democrats and Republicans and independents who stood with us, and everyone who voted, no matter who their candidate was. And thanks to my absolutely unbelievable, dedicated staff lead by a wonderful campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill, who did an extraordinary job.
There’s so much written about campaigns and there’s so much that Americans never get to see. I wish they could all spend a day on a campaign and see how hard these folks work to make America better. It is its own unbelievable contribution to our democracy and it’s a gift to everybody, but especially to me, and I’m grateful to each and every one of you. And I thank your families and I thank you for the sacrifices you’ve made. And to all the volunteers all across this country who gave so much of themselves. You know, thanks to William Field (ph), a 6-year-old who collected $680 a quarter and a dollar at a time, selling bracelets during the summer to help change America. Thanks to Michael Benson (ph) from Florida, who I spied in a rope line holding a container of money and it turned out he had raided his piggy bank and wanted to contribute. And thanks to Ilana Wexler, 11 years old, who started Kids for Kerry all across our country.

I think of the brigades of students and people, young and old, who took time to travel, time off from work, their own vacation time, to work in states far and wide. They braved the hot days of summer and the cold days of the fall and the winter to knock on door because they were determined to open the doors of opportunity to all Americans. They worked their hearts out. And I wish, you don’t know how much, that I could have brought this race home for you, for them. And I say to them now: Don’t lose faith. What you did made a difference.

And building on itself, we go on to make a difference another day. I promise you, that time will come, the time will come, the election will come, when your work and your ballots will change the world. And it’s worth fighting for. I want to especially say to the American people: In this journey, you have given me the honor and the gift of listening and learning from you. I have visited your homes, I visited your churches, I visited your community halls, I’ve heard your stories. I know your struggles, I know your hopes. They are part of me now. And I will never forget you and I’ll never stop fighting for you. You may not understand completely in what ways, but it is true when I say to you that you have taught me and you have tested me and you’ve lifted me up and you’ve made me stronger. I did my best to express my vision and my hopes for America. We worked hard and we fought hard, and I wish that things had turned out a little differently. But in an American election, there are no losers, because whether or not our candidates are successful, the next morning we all wake up as Americans. That is the greatest privilege and the most remarkable good fortune that can come to us on Earth.

With that gift also comes obligation. We are required now to work together for the good of our country. In the days ahead, we must find common cause. We must join in common effort, without remorse or recrimination, without anger or rancor. America is in need of unity and longing for a larger measure of compassion. I hope President Bush will advance those values in the coming years. I pledge to do my part to try to bridge the partisan divide. I know this is a difficult time for my supporters, but I ask them, all of you, to join me in doing that. Now, more than ever, with our soldiers in harm’s way, we must stand together and succeed in Iraq and win the war on terror.

I will also do everything in my power to ensure that my party, a proud Democratic Party, stands true to our best hopes and ideals. I believe that what we started in this campaign will not end here. Our fight goes on to put America back to work and to make our economy a great engine of job growth. Our fight goes on to make affordable health care an accessible right for all Americans, not privilege. Our fight goes on to protect the environment, to achieve equality, to push the frontiers of science and discovery and to restore America’s reputation in the world. I believe that all of this will happen, and sooner than we may think, because we’re America, and America always moves forward. I’ve been honored to represent the citizens of this commonwealth in the United States Senate now for 20 years. And I pledge to them that in the years ahead, I’m going to fight on for the people and for the principles that I’ve learned and lived with here in Massachusetts. I’m proud of what we stood for in this campaign and of what we accomplished. When we began, no one thought it was possible to even make this a close race.

But we stood for real change, change that would make a real difference in the life of our nation and the lives of our families. And we defined that choice to America. I’ll never forget the wonderful people who came to our rallies, who stood in our rope lines, who put their hopes in our hands, who invested in each and every one of us. I saw in them the truth that America is not only great, but it is good. So with a grateful heart, I leave this campaign with a prayer that has even greater meaning to me now that I’ve come to know our vast country so much better thanks to all of you and what a privilege it has been to do so. And that prayer is very simple: God bless America. Thank you.

Via NYT

Edwards Comments

The following is a transcript of remarks made by Senator John Edwards today as he and Senator John Kerry conceded the presidential election. Text provided by e-Media.

EDWARDS: Thank you. Well, it was a long night and a long morning, and even though the outcome won’t change, I want you to know that we will continue to fight for every vote. (APPLAUSE) Because every vote matters in our America and we will honor each one of you who stood with us and who stood in line to change your country. We believe in you. We didn’t stop fighting for you when this campaign began and we won’t stop fighting for you when this campaign ends.

Your cause will always be our cause. And nothing makes John and me prouder than standing with all of you. In this hour, I’m held up by the love of my life, Elizabeth, and by our beautiful children. (APPLAUSE) And I draw great strength by standing with the man I fought alongside with the last four months, his beautiful wife Teresa and his wonderful daughters and sons.

John Kerry is a great American. (APPLAUSE) To be a part of the most important election of our lifetime and to fight for so many things of value and consequence, it was nothing short of an honor to work with such a kind, caring and remarkable man. You cannot fight 18 hours a day, seven days a week unless you love America.

And John loves this country. (APPLAUSE) In this campaign, we worked hard and we hoped that the results would be different. And I want to talk to the tens of millions of people who worked alongside us, who believed in our cause and who stood with us. You can be disappointed, but you cannot walk away. This fight has just begun. (APPLAUSE) Together we will carry on and we will be with you every step of the way. You stood in line for 10 hours because you want your government to stand up for you. You stood in the rain to vote because you want to build one America. You missed classes, field hockey, soccer practices.

You stood for hours and hours to let your voices be heard. Well, we heard you. And I want you to hear me. This campaign may end today. But the battle for you and the hark-working Americans who built this country rages on. The battle rages for the factory worker and the mill worker who says, I want to work. I just want a job. The battle rages on for the mother who sits in the emergency room with her daughter and wonders how she is going to pay the bill. The battle rages on for the young person who’s worked hard and wants to go to collect but doesn’t have the money to pay for it. It goes on for the young child who doesn’t understand why they are treated differently just because of the color of their skin. And it rages on for the mother who wants to know why her son was sent over there and will not come home. This fight will continue in our homes and in our union halls, in our churches, and in our schools, in our offices and over the Internet.

We will keep marching toward that one America and we’re not going to stop until we get there. (APPLAUSE) You know, I’ve learned a lot of lessons in my life. Two of the most important are first, there will always be heartache and struggle. You can’t make it go away. But the other is that people of good and strong will can make a difference. And we can make a difference. Rest assured, we will make a difference. One lesson is a sad lesson, but the other lesson is inspiring. And we are Americans, and so we choose to be inspired. We choose to be inspired because we know we can do better, because this is America, where everything is still possible.

And at the end of our heartache today resides an eternal hope for the country we’re going to fight for and the country we’re going to build together. Ladies and gentlemen, the man who never surrendered his hopes and dreams for the country he loves so much, Senator John Kerry.

Via NYT

Lawsuit over college voters denied

(Note: The high-level member of the Maine College Republicans I cite below is Dan Schuberth, State Chairman.)

I have contacted a high-level member of the Maine College Republicans, who unequivocally refutes Christopher Johnson’s earlier assertions that “the Maine State Republicans are preparing to file a lawsuit that would disqualify thousands of votes from college students whose primary residency is out of state.”

The high-level College Republicans member only learned of this assertion from me, having heard nothing about it before. He stated that to his knowledge, the Maine Republican Party has no plans to challenge college voters “unless they voted illegally.”

He also noted that the Maine College Republicans had helped President Bush carry the youth vote by a 50%-48% margin, and that they are “more than satisfied with how the college vote broke down.”

UPDATE: Mr. Johnson’s numbers don’t add up. He claims that the alleged lawsuit “primarily effects the 6,000 or so students enrolled at Bowdoin, Bates and Colby.” As for its purpose, Johnson says that “suppressing student votes in Waterville was designed to impact the congressional race in the 2nd District.”

As of this posting, the Democratic incumbent, Mike Michaud, leads by nearly 60,000 votes with 97% of precincts reporting. I’m not sure why Johnson would believe that 6,000 votes are worth anyone’s time and money in court.

This is a dead story, folks.

(Re)Covering (from) the Election

If you’re an actual journalist from an actual journal of note, please - for the love of everything that is decent - please try to keep yourself from using the phrase, ‘Deja Vu All Over Again’.

For one thing, it’s no longer original and for another - it’s no longer original.

That off my chest, the CBC takes a quick look at how the election was covered by the major nets last night.

The Second Inagural

Kerry is to speak at 2 EST, and Bush at 3 EST. As I reflected on what Bush might say now, and what he might say in his inagural, I kept returning to another second inagural address, also given at a time of great national import.

Fellow countrymen …

At this second appearing to take the oath of the Presidential office there is less occasion for an extended address than there was at the first. Then, a statement somewhat in detail of a course to be pursued seemed fitting and proper. Now, at the expiration of four years, during which public declarations have been constantly called forth on every point and phase of the great contest which still absorbs the attention and engrosses the energies of the nation, little that is new would be presented. The progress of our arms, upon which all else chiefly depends, is as well known to the public as to myself, and it is, I trust, reasonably satisfactory and encouraging to all. With high hope for the future, no prediction in regard to it is ventured.

On the occasion corresponding to this, four years ago all thoughts were anxiously directed to an impending civil war. All dreaded it, all sought to avert it. While the inaugural address was being delivered from this place, devoted altogether to saving the Union without war, insurgent agents were in the city seeking to destroy it without war, seeking to dissolve the Union and divide effects by negotiation. Both parties deprecated war, but one of them would make war rather than let the nation survive, and the other would accept war rather than let it perish, and the war came.

One-eighth of the whole population were colored slaves, not distributed generally over the Union, but localized in the southern part of it. These slaves constituted a peculiar and powerful interest. All knew that this interest was somehow the cause of the war. To strengthen, perpetuate, and extend this interest was the object for which the insurgents would rend the Union, even by war; while the Government claimed no right to do more than to restrict the territorial enlargement of it. Neither party expected for the war the magnitude or the duration which it has already attained. Neither anticipated that the cause of the conflict might cease with, or even before, the conflict itself should cease. Each looked for an easier triumph, and a result less fundamental and astounding. Both read the same Bible and pray to the same God, and each invoked His aid against the other. It may seem strange that any men should dare to ask a just God’s assistance in wringing their bread from the sweat of other men’s faces, but let us judge not, that we be not judged. The prayers of both could not be answered. That of neither has been answered fully.

The Almighty has His own purposes. “Woe unto the world because of offenses; for it must needs be that offenses come, but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh”. If we shall suppose that American slavery is one of those offenses which, in the providence of God, must needs come, but which, having continued through His appointed time, He now wills to remove, and that He gives to both North and South this terrible war as the woe due to those by whom the offense came, shall we discern therein any departure from those divine attributes which the believers in a living God always ascribe to Him? Fondly do we hope, fervently do we pray, that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away. Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman’s two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said “the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether”.

With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.

- Abraham Lincoln, Saturday, March 4, 1865

My Two Cents

I suppose because I’m a declared centrist and someone who has tried to remain as bi-partisan on these pages as possible … and because I’ve been so close to the news, including attending both conventions … I’ve had lots of questions today about what I make of the election (as an “observer”).

I’ve posted my thoughts over on the Op-Ed page … yes, after helping run this place for 18 months, I finally posted original writing on Op-Ed. It’s just my impressions … again, as a centrist and as someone who’s been immersed in both sides of the story since last June.

Hope you find it thought-provoking.

Governor's Race Goes Into Extra Innings

The Washington Governor’s race is still incredibly tight (at one point they were only 32 votes apart) and there are still quite a few absentee ballots to be counted.

Between absentee ballots and recounts this one could take a few days to resolve, but so far everyone is being civil about it.

Speeches Coming Up

Kerry will speak at 2pm. Bush will speak at 3pm.

Stay tuned.

5 Votes Recovered

As an official election inspector for Ann Arbor, it was my duty to help assure a free and fair election. I believe we did a good job. The challengers from both parties agreed; we also removed cordial with various poll watchers, including those from the Moveon PAC.

There were 1477 ballots cast where I worked from a base of 1812 registered voters. There were 446 straight Democratic votes and 117 straight Republican votes. Kerry beat Bush 1158 to 300.

Invalid writeins are my lasting concern. In Michigan, a write in does not count if it does not refer to a registered candidate. This is an obscure law. It took effort to convince other poll workers that we needed to inspect each ballot to insure that the machine tabulated the votes properly.

We discovered one ballot where the voter’s pen strayed and accidentally cast a writein vote for Board of Regents. When we saw that the write-in vote had no candidate’s name, we determined that the machine had improperly interpreted the ballot as overvoted. We corrected the machine tapes by writing “+1” by the names of Maynard and Debusschere.

Another ballot had a stray dot which the machine interpreted as a preference for a no-name write in candidate; two ballots contained clearly expressed preferences for a no-name write in candidate. Those ballots were marked with straight party preferences for the Democratic party. We reverted those invalid writein votes to the Democratic cadidates, adding one vote to County Treasurer McClary and two votes to Council Member Easthope.

We discovered no huge number of votes. Still, when reporting vote totals, I insist on perfection, not close enough. Further, close races do occur; I am very comfortable that any recount of our precinct will validate our results.

Kerry Concedes Race [Updated -3-]

Breaking: Fox News Channel is reporting that Kerry has called President Bush to concede.

Story at Fox.

News of the phone call came at 11:10 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Earlier in the morning, the Bush campaign declared victory, despite claims by Kerry’s campaign that the fight is not yet over in Ohio.

Update: Reports are that he will officially concede at 1pm.

Update:

“Congratulations, Mr. President,” Kerry said in the conversation described by sources as lasting less than five minutes. One of the sources was Republican, the other a Democrat.

The Democratic source said Bush called Kerry a worthy, tough and honorable opponent. Kerry told Bush the country was too divided, the source said, and Bush agreed. “We really have to do something about it,” Kerry said according to the Democratic official.

Kerry placed his call after weighing unattractive options overnight. With Bush holding fast to a six-figure lead in make-or-break Ohio, Kerry could give up or trigger a struggle that would have stirred memories of the bitter recount in Florida that propelled Bush to the White House in 2000.

More:

A Democratic source said Bush called Kerry a tough and honorable opponent. The source said Kerry told Bush the country is too divided and that the president agreed.
The Democratic official said Kerry told Bush, “We really have to do something about it.”

Voter Supression in Maine Confirmed

Mayflower Hill is prepared to verify- with cell phone records, cell phone text message records and independent sources- its scoop about the Maine Republican Party’s efforts to suppress thousands of student votes in the state.

Mayflower Hill learned from a high ranking member of the Maine College Republicans that the Maine State Republicans are preparing to file a lawsuit that would disqualify thousands of votes from college students whose primary residency is out of state.

The basis for the law suit is that out of state students, since they do not declare their primary residency to be in Maine, are ineligible Maine voters under state law.

While there are many out of state students within the Maine State University system- particularly at Orono and Farmington- this primarily effects the 6,000 or so students enrolled at Bowdoin, Bates and Colby- many of whom choose to vote in the Brunswick, Lewiston/Auburn, and Waterville precincts.

The way it was explained to me, the Maine GOP will try and assert that there are laws in certain states- like Minnesota- which prohibit those who make their primary residence in state to register to vote out of state. At the moment, the Maine GOP is trying to determine how to argue that Maine state law, which allows out of state registrants, does not supersede voting laws in other states.

The presidential race in Maine isn’t really all that close (Kerry won handily), but suppressing student votes in Waterville was designed to impact the congressional race in the 2nd District.

When the Democrats redrew the district maps last year, they gave Democrat Mike Michaud (who won his first term in 2002 by only 5%) the Waterville area. Many insiders suspect that happened because Dems were worried Michaud was losing the support of rural, socially conservative Mainers who live north of Bangor. Republican challenger Brian Hamel had been running a tight race against Michaud, and his key to victory was believed to be winning Waterville.

Some estimate that around 1000 Colby College students vote in Waterville- many from out of state.

FOX: Bush Wins Nevada

He now has 274 Electoral Votes.

Eastern Iowa Upset

The stunning upset in Eastern Iowa was for Iowa House District 80. Challenger Nathan Reichert defeated long-time Republican Representative Barry Brauns. Final Tally :

NATHAN REICHERT (D) 6,553 52%

BARRY BRAUNS ® 6,047 48%

And in Muscatine, Iowa the race for the County Board of Supervisors ended up with a one vote difference :

DYANN ROBY ® 8,705 50%

KAS KELLY (D) 8,704 50%

The provisional ballots will undoubtedly decide this squeaker. It does go to show that one vote does make a difference.

GOP sweeps Alabama Supreme Court

I mentioned previously that all three positions open on the Alabama Supreme Court were won by the Republican candidates, including the seat won by former Chief Justice Roy Moore’s protege, Tom Parker. What I didn’t know is that this makes the Court a 9-0 Republican court:

All three Republican Supreme Court candidates won Tuesday as the GOP extended its 8-1 majority into a 9-0 Republican court. Republicans also captured the lone Court of Civil Appeals race on the ballot…

Moore issued a statement saying, “Tom Parker stood with me in my battle over the Ten Commandments, and I believe God has rewarded his faithfulness.”

…Republicans now also hold all the seats on the Alabama Court of Civil Appeals. Judge Sharon Yates, the only Democrat or woman on that five-member court, lost Tuesday to Republican Tommy Bryan. With 96 percent of the state’s precincts reporting, Yates had 810,634 votes, 48 percent, to 877,965 votes, 52 percent, for Bryan…

William Stewart, a political scientist with the University of Alabama, said coattails from President Bush’s strong Alabama showing buoyed GOP judicial candidates…

But Stewart said the GOP gains Tuesday shouldn’t dramatically alter court direction. “It’s already consistently favoring business interests.”

A court going from a 8-1 majority to a 9-0 dominance would seem unlikely to change direction due to the loss of the one Democrat. And Democrats in Alabama aren’t your Manhattan or Berkeley Democrats in their stance on social issues; the commercials I saw had Democrat candidates heavily emphasizing “family” and “conservative” values, so I don’t know that having Democrats on the court would result in very different decisions. However, having two high courts in Alabama fully comprised of Republican justices is a psychological difference.

All US House incumbents returned in Alabama

All US House seats were up for grabs yesterday, and in Alabama, every incumbent is going back. Here’s the final:

District 1 - Jo Bonner, Republican, 63% of the vote
District 2 - Terry Everett, Republican, 71%
District 3 - Mike Rogers, Republican, 61%
District 4 - Robert Aderholt, Republican, 75%
District 5 - Bud Cramer, Democrat, 73%
District 6 - Artur Davis, Democrat, 75%

Numbers rounded to the nearest whole. I apologize for not getting to this until today, but somehow in all the tension I didn’t remember that the US House seats were out there. And yes, I voted for my representative. I’m claiming exhaustion.

Congratulations to the winners.

Miscellaneous Notes

Kerry won California by 10%, one point less than Al Gore in 2000. Helping to close the gap was a 4% increase in votes for President Bush in Los Angeles county, a very blue area of the state.

Barbara Boxer wins by 19. The Republicans will have to go back to the drawing board to run against Diane Feinstein.

Incumbents have successfully protected their seats in the State Senate and Assembly. The gerrymandering appears to have made almost every single race uncompetitive.

Illinois Supreme Court Justice race the biggest news

In the category of “no news” was the Barak Obama win for U.S. Senate. This was never a contest and I hope that he will do good things for this state, we need a voice. Fizgerald was too much of an iconoclast for most of us and Durbin is more for personal face time on any camera that he sees.

But, Lloyd Karmeier defeated Democrat Gordon Maag in the fiercely contested race for Illinois Supreme court justice. No one should underestimate the explosion of this result. Karmeier’s win makes this the first time in history a republican has ever been elected from the Southern Illinois region to the Supreme Court. And it is the first time anyone living outside the democratic hotbed counties of Madison and St. Clair has won. An unbelieveable turn of events which was aided in large part by the mobilization of almost all doctors, nurses and other medical workers in this part of the state. Losing almost 170 doctors because the two counties are ground zero in lawsuit abuse was a major factor. Maag was supported with millions of dollars by trial lawyers while Karmeier received millions from doctors, tort reform people and business associations. Maag appears to also be losing his attempt to retain his present seat as an appellate court judge. He was on the ballot twice and is not getting the 60 per cent necessary to be retained. This is major news here.

Wake Up and Smell the Kool-Aid...

At this very moment, John Kerry has the biggest opportunity of his life.

It’s obvious that John Edwards and Hillary Clinton must sing the school fight song, since they must keep their base support for 2008. But what about John Kerry?

He’s got less than a 2% probability of becoming president through the court system. He’s got a 98% chance of losing. As a loser, he is confronted with two choices:

1. If he concedes with grace, maintaining his desire to “unite the country,” then he will tick off the 50% of his base that voted against the president but gain the heartfelt respect as a true “statesman” from his other 50%. He would gain 100% of the Republican electorate respect for his “statesmanship.” He would maintain his voice in the political discourse, and be part of the democrat leadership cadre in the next election.

2. If he fights and loses, his place will be with Al Gore. He will take on AlGore’s “crazed fool” look and stand along side with the sour grapes demeanor of a politician who will never again be taken seriously or have any merit in the political discourse. He might as well grow a beard, smoke some dope and move to Maui to windsurf for the rest of his days.

John, please don’t drink the Kool-Aid. Like Mel Gibson in “Braveheart,” “unite the clans!”

NC Returns-observations

Looks like NC had a slightly higher turnout then 2000:

With 90 percent of the state’s precincts reporting by 1 a.m., 3,029,953 people had voted in the presidential race. Four years ago, the total number of voters was 3,015,964.

State elections director Gary Bartlett figured turnout was near 65 percent, though officials won’t know until later this week. The state’s highest percentage turnout was 68 percent in 1984, but laws enacted since then allowing easier registration have made for larger voter rolls, explaining the higher numbers of ballots cast.

North Carolina also has had a good influx of transplants, which could account for the higher turnout. I would hazard to guess that the partisanship of the election didn’t change the dynamics all that much.

Taking a look at the individual counties, there really wasn’t much difference in who won the Presidential race 2004 than in 2000, in either the counties or the county returns. However, in Wake County (where the state capital of Raleigh is located) it was Bush 51% Kerry 48%. Bush 172,563 to Kerry 162,750 popular, with Badnarik getting 1,300 votes. In 2000, the percentages were similar, but in popular vote, Bush 142,494 and Gore 123,466. A large influx of new voters into the Wake county area.

Either way, Bush carried North Carolina by a large margin, 56% to 43%, with Badnarik getting 1%

Cross posted at the Pirate’s Cove.

Not far from Paris, reactions in Brussels

This from The Financial Times

The apparent re-election of President George W Bush is the news most of Europe never wanted to hear. But with four more years in the White House seemingly assured for Mr Bush, many leaders will now have to rebuild bridges with Washington. Despite a diplomatic silence throughout the campaign and into Wednesday morning, there has been an unmistakeable desire in much of Europe for Mr Kerry to win, one expressed privately by government officials and vociferously by the public at large.

From FT.com. Read The view from Brussels, by Daniel Dombey

Greatest Presidential Victory Since 1988

Barring any last minute surprises, it appears that President George W. Bush has won the greatest political victory of any presidential nominee since 1988, where his father, George H.W. Bush also won the votes of the majority of Americans along with the majority of the electoral votes.

For all his charisma, Bill Clinton never managed this feat. While he won the important electoral votes necessary for election in both his campaigns, he only received a plurality of the popular vote. Neither Bush nor Gore won a majority of the popular vote in the 2000 election where Bush won enough electoral votes to be elected. America is a divided nation, and we may stay this way for a while, but we are more united today than we have been since the 1988 election.

Moronski wraps it up

At this time in Ohio, the President has a lead of approximately 135,000 votes with virtually all of the votes in.  Even using the Democrat estimate of “200,000” provisional ballots (votes cast by folks not registered for various reasons) for the counting of additional votes, Kerry would have to win 70 percent of those votes to cast this election into doubt, and that is assuming all of those provisional ballots are valid.  This isn’t Florida and 537 votes — then again, neither was Florida this year.  Ohio’s 20 electoral votes will be in the GOP column, assuring the Republicans have claim on 269 votes and no worse than a situation that throws the election into the House (where the GOP controls 30 state delegations).

President Bush also leads in New Mexico and Iowa.

It’s over.

Once we get through the election formalities in Ohio and elsewhere, there will be enough electoral votes to re-elect President Bush.  Four times in our history — 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000 — the President won the Electoral College without finishing first in the popular vote.  Three times, the incumbent did not get re-elected.  History was made in 2004.

President Bush, constantly castigated for finishing second in the popular vote in 2000, finished with the most votes in American history — outpacing his opponent by over 3,500,000 votes nationwide.

President Bush is the first nominee to win a majority of the votes cast since his father in 1988. 

Despite the hundreds of millions of dollars invested by various left-wing groups (moveon.org, The Voter Fund, AFL-CIO, NARAL, et al) to assassinate this President’s character, they failed and the results reflect that.  More new voters showed up Tuesday, and the numbers show the obvious — they put President Bush over the top.

It was a great night for the President and a strong night for the GOP.

More in the coming days about the dissection of this race and the Senate races.  

This Morning's Canadian OpEds

Tom Brodbeck says ‘It’s Time to Mend Fences’; Legendary Canadian OpEdist, Peter Worthington believes ‘Election is Polls Apart’; Toronto Sun’s Mike Strobel thinks this sort of election could happen ‘Only in America’; Thane Burnett talks to the mother of a Canadian-born U.S. marine.

Mark Bonokoski says the 600k eligible voters in Canada and the ‘slacker revolution’ didn’t make the difference for which the Dems had hoped; Ike Awgu of The Ottawa Sun appears to be engaged in the ‘politics of paniciness’; In Calgary, Rick Bell talks to a few Albertans about the election results.

Finally, a few words about the importance of yesteday’s election to the people of Afghanistan…

‘When the women of Bamiyan, Afghanistan were warned that Taliban remnants would attack polling stations, the women performed ritual bathing and said the prayers of those facing death. They then rose at 3 a.m., trekked an hour to wait in line for the polls to open at 7 a.m.’

If you are sick of the Dems and Reps....

Why don’t you go see how followers of the Great Old One are doing this this election cycle?

The Second Highest Paying Elected Office in the State?

There was very little drama in Massachusetts yesterday with the state going heavily to Kerry and most of the Democratic candidates for state office being swept into office. Without a doubt, the biggest electoral story in Central Massachusetts was the fact that Worcester County has a new sheriff for the first time in 18 years.

Why should you care about the job of Sheriff in Worcester County? Maybe because it is estimated to be the second highest paying elected office in Massachusetts (behind only the Governor).

Former State Senator Guy Glodis defeated the incumbent John “Mike” Flynn in the Democratic primary and yesterday was a foregone conclusion for Glodis who defeated Republican challenger Billy McCarthy pretty handily.

The job has a salary of about $110,000 but also includes a car, a house and the county pays the grocery bill for the sheriff. That’s a nice little package but not outrageous. Where the real money comes in for the sheriff is from summons. A number of law enforcement professionals have explained that for each summons delivered by the office of the Sheriff - the sheriff receives $4-5. That amount quickly adds up and may provide a total compensation package for the sheriff approaching $400,000.

Glodis has vowed to forego the house if elected. This property, which sits on the grounds of the Worcester County Jail, may now be used for other purposes.

Benjamin Beats McGraw For WV High Court

WCHS-TV Charleston has the story: Republican Brent Benjamin wins a record-setting victory over Democrat incumbent Darrel McGraw! Benjamin supporters statewide are breathing a collective sigh of relief. More on this story at DOUBLE TOOTHPICKS.

Not So Fast

Democrat Chris John is holding a press conference at 9:00AM today at the Fairmont Hotel in New Orleans. It’s expected that he will challenge the results of yesterday’s tally which gave the Senate contest to Republican David Vitter.

Kerry's Coach Turns Into A Pumpkin

At the stroke of midnight last night, Nevadans chose President Bush over John Kerry 50% to 47% — moving the state’s 5 electoral votes into the Bush column.

All eyes are back on Ohio.

Final state results will be posted here later today.

British reaction

Most of the British press and elite are holding their thoughts because we “don’t know” yet. They seem to be trying to hold out one last hope that it may go the other way. I would recomend looking at Sky and the Beeb for reaction whenever the result is clear.

2073 of 2079 (99%) Precincts

GEORGE W. BUSH ® (i) 741,325 50%

JOHN KERRY (D) 725,700 49%

What can I say? I was just plain wrong about this. I honestly thought Kerry was going to carry Iowa.

NC Election results

Until the NC Board of Elections certifies all results, check the news at some of the papers' and TV stations' Web sites:

News 14 Carolina covers the Greenville area, the Triangle, and Charlotte. The Fayetteville Observer is running election stories on the front page, rather than putting them in a dedicated directory (or, to use journalism-ese, "section"). So is the Winston-Salem Journal, with results from the 10 counties the paper serves. The Wilmington Star-News has updated results in a special election section (or, to use the Web-ese, "directory", though they're using a database so it's not quite a directory), where you can get results from further down east and the coast. From the Charlotte Observer's politics page, you can access local election coverage along the NC-SC border. and the Asheville Citizen-Times has coverage of races up in the mountains.

That should keep you busy and informed, though that doesn't represent comprehensive coverage of all local races in North Carolina. Also, feel free to review some useful 2004 election links.

[Cross-posted to PS.]

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier reacts

PARIS, Nov 3 (Reuters) - France hailed the U.S. election as an important moment in world diplomacy on Wednesday, calling it an opportunity to revive the transatlantic relationship no matter who wins. French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier declined to comment on the latest projections showing President George W. Bush moving to the verge of victory over the Democratic challenger, U.S. Sen. John Kerry. “I can however tip my hat to American democracy,” he told RTL radio in an interview. “A new stage is starting. It is a very important moment for the world.

From Reuters. Full article.

Colorado Wrapup

Final numbers are not in, but the major races and issues have been decided.

President
George Bush®takes Colorado’s nine electoral votes. This race was highly contested with heavy advertising and frequent state visits. Ultimately, the difference came down to the larger number of registered Republicans in the state.

Senate
Ken Salazar(D) wins Ben Nighthorse Campbell’s® vacant senate seat over Pete Coors®. Salazar ran a much better campaign and was able to paint himself as a moderate to the voters. Coors inexperience as a candidate didn’t help at times but, ultimately, his campaign was poorly run.

Referendum 4A - FasTracks
Opponents only raised a few thousand dollars. Supporters raised millions. This Denver Metro mass-transit bill won easily as a result (currently 18% margin).

Referendum 4B - SCFD Funding
There was no noticeable opposition to this referendum which continues a tax to support the arts. Currently winning by about a 30-point margin.

Amendment 34 - Contractor Liability
This amendment would have raised liability caps on home builder lawsuits. Opponents heavily outspent supporters and ran highly-effective ads. Currently winning by a 42-point margin.

Amendment 35 - Raising Tobacco Taxes
Colorado has the lowest tobacco taxes in the country and a lower number of smokers. With no significant opposition this passed easily.

Amendment 36 - Electoral College
This amendment would have caused the state to divide up its nine electoral votes by percentage of the popular vote. Initially this led in the polls but the amendment quickly plummeted as it drew bi-partisan opposition, newspaper’s came out against it, and heavy anti-36 money entered the contest. Currently losing by 32 points.

Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy
This amendment would mandate a percentage of energy be generated by renewable resources. There was very little opposition spending, yet this passed by just a few percentage points. This was kept close by concerns about this raising the cost of energy.

House District 3
John Salazar(D) (Ken Salazar’s brother) wins a close contest over Greg Walcher®. A lot of 527 money went into this race and Walcher’s support of a (failed) water bill last year cost him votes in his district. Salazar probably picked up some votes due to name recognition and heavy advertising for his brother’s Senate race.

House District 4
This was looking close for a while but Marilyn Musgrave® will win over Stan Matsunaka(D) by a comfortable margin. Musgrave is a very conservative Republican in a conservative district. Republicans came in, late in the race, with a reported $3 million for her campaign.

House District 6
Tom Tancredo® wins easily against Joanna Conti(D). This was considered a safe Republican seat in a strong Republican district.

House District 7
Bob Beauprez® easily wins this district over Dave Thomas(D)by 26,000 votes. You may remember that Beauprez barely won this seat last time by slighly more than 100 votes in this evenly-split (voter registrations) house seat.

And in the undercovered story of the day…

It looks like Democrats will gain control of both the state house and senate. In a state with a solid advantage in Republican registrations, this has to be considered something of an upset. It looks like Democrats had a much stronger ground game.

Results Official : Incumbent the Winner

From The Australian :

Incumbent leader Hamid Karzai is the winner of Afghanistan’s first presidential election, the spokesman for the election commission said today.

”Karzai is the winner,” said Sultan Baheen of the Joint Electoral Management Body, adding that the results would be formally certified at 3.00pm (9.30pm AEDT).

Who would have believed back in early 2002 that Afghanistan would have an official election result before the US?

Prop 66 Loses -- Prop 71 Wins

>95% precincts reporting:

Prop 66 (3 Strike Limits):

No: 53%
Yes: 47%

Prop 71 (Stem Cell Research):

Yes: 59%
No: 41%

Governor did well.

French press reacts

Here’s a link (thanks to Le Nouvel Observateur) to today’s covers of French daily newspapers.

Bush Declares Victory [Updated]

Bush chief of staff: “We are convinced President Bush has won re-election with at least 286 Electoral College votes” and popular vote.

Details, links, quotes as we get them.

Update, via Fox:

President Bush’s campaign declared victory in the 2004 presidential election at 5:45 a.m. EST Wednesday.

“I want to thank all of you for staying up so late with us and good morning,” White House Chief of Staff Andy Card told haggard supporters at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington. “We are convinced that President Bush has won re-election with at least 286 Electoral College votes.”

Although Iowa, Nevada and Mexico had not yet made their results officials, Card said the GOP camp was counting those states in its column. Card also declared victory in Ohio, despite claims by John Kerry’s campaign that the fight is not yet over in The Buckeye State.

“This all adds up to a convincing victory,” Card said. “President Bush decided to give Senator Kerry the respect of more time to reflect on the results of this election.”

Bush will make statement “later today,” Card added.

The View From Australia

Nicholson of “The Australian” newspaper: www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au

Mary Beth Cahill: We Still Believe

Statement from Kerry Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill on Ohio:

“The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio.”

Markets Expect Bush Win

Markets now expect George W Bush to win a second term, despite a refusal by contender John Kerry to concede defeat in the key swing state Ohio.

[…]

Oil, currency and equities markets moved on clear expectations of a Bush win.

Crude bounced back through USD 50 usd mark in overnight Tokyo trade, with the US December contract trading at USD50.12, up 50 cents from its New York close.

European stock markets were also called higher.

Read more…

What's the Hold Up?

A Q & A from the BBC, for those wondering just what the heck the problem is.

Highest Vote Count Since JFK v. Nixon

Voters across the country stormed the polls in record numbers yesterday to help decide one of the closest presidential races in recent history.

“I’ve been working in elections for 15 years, and I have never seen anything like this before,” said one poll worker in Silver Spring, Md.

Officials estimated that more than 125 million people voted yesterday — the highest turnout since the 1960 election, when John Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon.

The Gallup Organization forecast 60 percent of registered voters cast their ballots yesterday, compared to 63 percent in 1960.

In 2000, just 52 percent of the voting population — or 105 million Americans — voted.

Some areas are expected to break even older records. Washington state Secretary of State Sam Reed said he expected 84 percent of registered voters to vote, “the greatest percentage since World War II.”

Read more…

Report: Bush to Make Victory Speech, No Concession From Kerry [Updated]

With Ohio looming as a Florida redux, President Bush prepared to declare re-election victory in the wee hours of Wednesday and Democratic rival John Kerry refused to concede.

After winning Nevada and pulling within 16 electoral votes of the 270 required for a second term, Bush was laying claim to Ohio’s 20 over Kerry’s objections. “We will not base our decision on a concession,” said Bush adviser Dan Bartlett.

Ceding nothing, Kerry dispatched running mate John Edwards to tell supporters in Boston: “We’ve waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.”

[…]

“We will fight for every vote,” Edwards said, borrowing a line from Gore. Both campaigns considered sending political and legal teams to Ohio, already the scene of dueling lawsuits over provisional ballots.

Read more…

Here’s the stat breakdown as of now:

OHIO
100% of Precincts Reporting
George W. Bush 2,777,645 - 51 percent
John Kerry 2,632,547 - 48 percent

NATIONAL
95% of Precincts Reporting
George W. Bush 51% 56,732,387
John Kerry 48% 53,004,905

From Time:

But unlike 2000 when Gore conceded only to take back his words, the Kerry campaign issued a statement earlier this morning saying that they would not give up until every last vote had been counted. “The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio,” said Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry-Edwards campaign manager. The reason? The math is still a bit fuzzy, but with 99 percent of the precincts reporting, Bush held a lead of about 144,000 votes. The Kerry camp is banking that the still-to-be-counted provisional ballots can make up the difference and the long-time senator from Massachusetts was not prepared to give up the fight.

The Republican camp quickly fired back. On NBC, Rudy Giuliani told Tom Brokaw that Kerry’s chances in Ohio were slim and that the Senator should avoid a repeat of the month-long legal challenges that happened in 2000.

In Boston, John Edwards made at statement at 2:30am, Wednesday morning. “We’ve waited four years for this victory, we can wait one more night,” said Edwards. He went on to say: “John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election every vote would count and every vote would be counted. Tonight, we are keeping our word. You deserve no less.”

Thune Defeats Daschle

Republican John Thune, who narrowly lost his first try for the U.S. Senate two years ago, defeated Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota on Tuesday.

Thune had 196,017 votes, or 51 percent, to 187,370 votes for Daschle. Only 16 precincts out of 827 remained to be counted Wednesday morning

Read more..

MSNBC: Kerry Wins Minnesota

MSNBC calls Minnesota for Kerry.

MSNBC’s Electoral Tally as of 4:42:
Bush 269
Kerry 221

CNN Calls Nevada for Bush

They’re still showing Ohio as a “cliffhanger” though.


Map from CNN at 0423am ET

Bush lead extends in Ohio

Latest count via the BBC:

Bush 2,771,814 (51.1)
Kerry 2,624,201 (48.4)

99% of precincts counted.

It is getting close to mathematically impossible for Kerry to win, even if all provisional and absentee ballots are for Kerry. Many absentee ballots are from military personnel, who are estimated to be voting 70% for Bush.

BBC Calls Michigan for Kerry

Latest results:

Kerry 50.9
Bush 48.2
Nader 00.5

87% of precincts reported.

It's Not Over

MSNBC still has not called Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

Kerry’s campaign is unwilling to concede, hoping that he would win Ohio’s 20 electoral votes when all the ballots were counted, which won’t happen for almost two weeks. MSNBC sums it up:

“We’ve waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night,” Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, told cheering supporters in Boston.

The Bush Campaign responded:

Bush Communications Director Nicolle Devenish called the Kerry campaign’s stance “desperate,” saying Kerry would have to win an unrealistic number of votes to capture Ohio.

“There’s no mathematical path to victory for Kerry in Ohio,” she said. “There aren’t enough votes there to alter the outcome of the re-election of George W. Bush.”

From California Yankee.

Nader may have given New Mexico to Bush

This one really is “too close to call”, but here’s the latest results from the BBC:

98% of precincts reported

Bush 317,071 (49.5)
Kerry 316,068 (49.4)
Nader 3,444 (00.5)