County Officials Worried About Fisticuffs

Deschutes County (Oregon) officials are posting sheriffs to keep an eye on the people keeping an eye on the vote-counting, fearing that name-calling will expand to flying fists in this hotly contested election.

Can’t we all just get along?

Early Voter Turnout

Greetings from central Texas. Early voting has been very popular this year, with some two million Texans voting early in the 15 largest counties according to Austin NBC affiliate KXAN. Despite the high turnout, Texas Secretary of State Geoff Connor speaking in the Austin American-Statesman predicts an average turnout by the end of the day on November 2. Connor says there are 13.1 million voters registered for this election which is 82 percent of the state’s population. In the 2000 election, 85 percent of the population was registered. Historically, the percentage of Texans voting averages 40 percent. Despite the past numbers, officials are hopeful that we’ll see close to 60% of registered voters voting this year.

Travis County, home to the state capitol of Austin, saw 217,000 early voters. Williamson County, just north of Travis (and my home) had 78,000 early voters. The Secretary of State’s website lists the early voting numbers for the 15 largest counties. Harris County, home of Houston, had a 22.55% turnout. Dallas County saw 28% early vote and Collin County, also in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, had the largest percentage with 41.57% of the population taking advantage of early voting.

Colorado Introduction

Hello from the swing state of Colorado! These are some of our key issues in this election:

President - We are considered a swing state though the polls now show President Bush leading by a comfortable margin. (Colorado polls have been notoriously unreliable these last couple election cycles.)

Senate: Coors vs Salazar - It’s been a close race between Pete Coors & Ken Salazar for the seat vacated by Sen. Ben Nighthorse Cambell. Polls show the Democrat, Ken Salazar, is leading.

Amendment 36 - Would divide up the state’s electoral votes based on a percentage of the vote instead of the current winner-take-all system. This is expected to go down in flames.

Amendment 37 - Would require utilities to generate a certain percentage of their power from renewable resources. There has been very little organized opposition to this proposed amendment.

Referendum 4a - FasTracks. This would increase sales taxes in the Denver metropolitan area .4 percent to fund a $4.7 billion mass transit expansion. This is expected to pass as opponents to this referendum were heavily outspent. The two Denver papers were split in their recommendations on this referendum.

More to come.

Democrats Accuse Republicans Of Trying to Block Thousands of Votes

The Oregonian is reporting that Republicans have asked the state to set aside ballots from newly-registered voters who did not provide proof of identification when registering.

Oregon has a unique vote-by-mail system where every ballot is a mail-in ballot. We are now fourteen days into an eighteen-day election period. More than 200,000 new voters have registered in Oregon since May, with many of them under 25 and living in the very liberal Portland area.

I’m one of them, and when I registered, the form instructed me to Xerox my driver’s license (which has my old Illinois address on it) and also something with my current address (like a bill) to send in with my registration to verify my identity. Apparently some people haven’t done that, and Republicans want the state to double-check and make sure those people are really who they say they are. Democrats are objecting, saying that the threat that lying is a Class C felony should be enough, and because the GOP is only doing this in traditionally liberal Multnomah County it is a partisan trick. Developing story.

Sooner State races to watch: U. S. Senate, Legislature, referenda

Hello from Tulsa, Oklahoma. President Bush is polling above 60% and expected to take Oklahoma’s seven electoral votes, but we have plenty of hot races down the ballot — a U. S. Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of Republican Don Nickles and several controversial constitutional amendments dealing with marriage, a lottery, casino gambling, and a tobacco tax. The Senate race, pitting Republican former Congressman Tom Coburn against Democrat Congressman Brad Carson, is a key race in the battle for control of the Senate.

2004 is the first year that incumbent legislators will be affected by the term limits initiative passed in 1988. There are 36 open seats in our 101-seat lower house. The current makeup of the State House: Democrats have 51 seats, Republicans have 47, with three vacancies (held by two Ds and one R after the last election). A poll in 17 competitive House districts by SoonerPoll.com shows the Republicans leading in enough races to pick up seven seats and a majority of 54, but all but one of those pickups are within the margin of error. Democrats have held the majority in the State House since 1923. Republicans have been close to a takeover since 2000 - they have high hopes of finally reaching the goal this year. Republicans would have to pick up eight seats to take over the State Senate — a longer shot, but not out of the question.

The Oklahoma State Election Board will be posting results here as they come in from the counties. Unless there are problems, all precincts generally report by 9 p.m. CST.

Thanks to the Command Post for the opportunity to report from Oklahoma on Election Day!

Michigan Coverage

I am honored to be a correspondent from the great state of Michigan.
Michigan is one of the battle ground states and is currently governed by a Democratic Governor, but is nearly a dead tie in the latest polls. Both President Bush and Sen. Kerry have spent a great deal of time in our state this year. President Bush even visited my hometown of Marquette, the first President to visit the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in almost 100 years.
Tuesday’s weather
A possible deterrent to voters….High of 52 with an 80% chance for rain.
Two Proposals on the Michigan Ballot as well.

Paris 2004 is bipartisan!

Good evening from Paris. It’s pretty cold here.
Paris 2004 is definitively bipartisan. Democrats Abroad France and Republicans Abroad France will be holding, together, a bipartisan Election Night party at a restaurant in the Champs Elysees area. We received a beautiful invitation with, printed on it, a flag, a donkey and an elephant. Maybe I’m a bit naive, but I just loved it! Another bipartisan party will take place at historical American watering hole, maybe the oldest one, Harry’s Bar. I’ll report from both places.
Good luck to my 85 fellow correspondents!

Welcome To "Big Sky" Election Coverage!

Greetings all — this is Dave, from Montana. I know most of you think that we’ve got nothing but militia-men and Unabombers here, but believe me — plenty of good, honest people call Montana home. On the ballot for Tuesday: President, Governor, US Representative, and a few initiatives that are being hotly debated. I’ll do my best to keep you updated as Election Day 2004 rolls on!

Release The Hounds!

We’ve opened the 2004 page to our special Election Day correspondents … 86 citizens around the US (and the world) who will post in this space news about state and national elections, in their own words, as it happens.

Welcome them as their posts appear … visit their blogs should they have them … and enjoy the show. We’ll keep their permissions open until at least November 3rd.

(And if your one of the folks who signed up to be an ED contributor but haven’t gotten your welcome email with login instructions, we might have gotten your email wrong … email me or Michele and we’ll set things straight.)

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-31

Reuters reports today’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states. This tracking polling which began on Sunday will run each day through November 1:

Kerry leads in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Bush leads in Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, according to the Reuters/Zogby state polls.

The state of New Mexico is deadlocked at 49 percent each, one day after Bush held a nine-point advantage.

From California Yankee.

Election Day Feature: Electoral College Tracker

We’ve set up a graphic tracker for the Electoral College vote counts over at the top of the right-hand column. We’ll update the counts as the states come in … and remember: 270 to win.

The current projection over at Election Projection? Bush 286, Kerry 252.

And at Electoral Vote? Kerry 283, Bush 246.

Election Day Feature: CP Breaking News Alerts!

We’ll be sending out Command Post Breaking News Alerts as things happen on November 2nd, including alerts each time a state is called for one candidate or another. To sign up and receive Command Post Breaking News Alerts, go here.

Election Coverage Update

We’re ramping up our election day coverage, and soon will be opening the 2004 page to 86 citizen journalists who have signed up to cover the election from their city, state, and in some cases, country.

To help our readers navigate what will certainly be a large volume of news, we’ve added categories for each of the 50 states, which supplement the categories we already have for individual candidates (to see all the posts for a single category, click the category you want over in the “Search The Post” section of the left-hand column). I’ve also updated the template for this page so the category precedes the title of the post … as “Misc.” does here … so you’ll be able to tell at a glance from which state each post is coming.

We’re really excited … Michele and I think this will be very cool … and we’re thankful to those who have signed up to help us make this the first truly citizen-blogged, citizen-covered election.

And thanks for reading the Post!

"Tora Bora: What Really Happened?"

CNN’s terrorism analyst Peter Bergen:

Votes From the Dead to Count in Election

AP: Votes From the Dead to Count in Election

In what would be her last conscious act, 90-year-old Trixie Porter gripped a pen in her weak, trembling hand, checked the candidates of her choice and scrawled a squiggled signature on her absentee ballot.

Within an hour, the petite woman who had been suffering from heart problems lay back in her hospital bed, closed her eyes and never woke up. Her ballot arrived at her local elections board two days later, Oct. 5 — the day she died.

“We commented that day that it probably won’t count,” said daughter Cheryl McConnell. “But she went to her grave not knowing any different. It counted with her.”

An untold number of ballots like Porter’s will indeed be counted because of the haphazard and cumbersome process of enforcing laws in many states to weed out the absentee votes of those who die by Election Day.

Nader Could Still Impact Key States

The Los Angeles Times reports that even though Nader is only on the ballot in 34 states, he may have an impact because some of those states are still competitive.

According to the Times, the thirteen potentially competitive states in which Nader might impact the outcome include Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

From California Yankee.

Daily Tracking Polls Tied

Reuters reports that President Bush and Kerry and are tied at 48 percent in the latest three-day Reuters/Zogby International Tracking Poll Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent on Saturday.

ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll and the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll also show the race tied at 48 percent.

From California Yankee.

The Choice

Updating a previous post, comes this video from the Daily Recycler.

Drink and Keyboard warnings are in force, I say again, Drink and Keyboard warnings are in force.

Fear And Loathing ... And Command Post?

Hunter S. Thompson in Rolling Stone:

The genetically vicious nature of presidential campaigns in America is too obvious to argue with, but some people call it fun, and I am one of them. Election Day — especially a presidential election — is always a wild and terrifying time for politics junkies, and I am one of those, too. We look forward to major election days like sex addicts look forward to orgies. We are slaves to it.

Wonder if he reads this page. Regardless, much more of HST’s views on this election in the Rolling Stone article, including Haliburton, Nazis, and more.

Did Kerry take direction from North Vietnamese Communists?

On October 22, 2004, Swift Veterans and POWs for Truth researchers Troy Jenkins and Tom Wyld located two Vietnamese communist documents in the archives of the Vietnam Center at Texas Tech University, in the Douglas Pike Collection. Douglas Pike was a leading authority on the Vietnam War who collected over 2 million pages of original documents now archived at the Vietnam Center. James Reckner, Ph.D., Director of the Vietnam Center at Texas Tech, verifies that the documents in the Pike collection are original and authentic. The Circular and the Directive are listed as items numbered 2150901039b and 2150901041 respectively.

The fifth paragraph of this document makes clear that the Vietnamese communists were utilizing for their propaganda purposes the activities of the Vietnam Veterans Against the War. The protest described as occurring from April 19 through April 22, 1971 coincides directly with the dates of Dewey Canyon III, the Washington, DC, protest led by John Kerry, during which John Kerry’s testimony before Senator Fulbright’s Foreign Relations Committee was a televised centerpiece. The description of the protest activities in the Directive even include the “return their medals” ceremony in which John Kerry and other VVAW members threw their medals and/or ribbons toward the steps of the US Capitol, with several shouting threats of violence against their government as they did so.

[…]

Another key discussion in the documents reveals the degree to which the Vietnamese communists were working with and through the PCPJ (People’s Coalition for Peace and Justice. The Circular, immediately after disclosing how the communist delegations to the Paris Peace talks were being used to guide the US antiwar movement, stresses the importance of the PCPJ to these efforts:

Of the US antiwar movements, the two most important ones are: The PCPJ ((the People’s Committee for Peace and Justice)) and the NPAC ((National Peace Action Committee)). These two movements have gathered much strength and staged many demonstrations. The PCPJ is the most important. It maintains relations with us.

(emphasis in original)

Further reporting of this research is available in this New York Sun article.

::Update:: As pointed out by Digger, InTheBullpen has an interview with Troy Jenkins on this topic (permalink busted, scroll down).

Photog Sues Sinclair Broadcasting

Photographer and documentary filmmaker George Butler has sued Sinclair Broadcasting and Red, White and Blue Productions to stop the sale and distribution of Stolen Honor: Wounds that Never Heal, a controversial documentary critical of presidential challenger John Kerry. Butler alleges unauthorized use of his photographs and film footage in Stolen Honor.

Keep Reading at PDN

Moore Cameras to Focus on Polls in Ohio, Florida

From The Australian :

US filmmaker Michael Moore plans to have hundreds of cameras outside polling places in Ohio and Florida on election day to watch for attempts to suppress voter turnout.

The director of the anti-Bush documentary Fahrenheit 9/11 announced today that a total of 1200 professional and non-professional cameramen, filmmakers and videographers would take their cameras to polling places in the two presidential battleground states, especially in minority communities.

“I’m putting those who intend to suppress the vote on notice: Voter intimidation and suppression will not be tolerated,” Moore said.

Moore, who was in Columbus, Ohio for a rally today, planned visits to Ohio and Florida on election day, his publicist Terri Hardesty said.

New Democrat 527 Video

Another not-serious look at the US Elections. At least, I think it’s not-serious. You can never tell, when OBL is on tape channelling Michael Moore, parotting parts of the Democrat Platform, and pleading to “live and let live”.

A Minneapolis-based 527 group GeorgeTheMenace, has just produced a new video which they hope will counter the SwiftVet ones. The one showing hundreds of Veterans and ex-POWs of all party affilliations, all united against John F Kerry.

The video, which if taken at face value is extremely damaging to George Bush, is available in 2 formats:
QuickTime [800k]
RealPlayer[1.4 M]

Bush supporters will no doubt claim that the video has been “doctored” by Democrats, however the GeorgeTheMenace group hopes to put in on TV “straight”, according to their (satirical) website.

No doubt some people will believe it, but they probably wouldn’t be voting for Bush even before seeing it. Others will see it as an act of Democrat desperation, but they probably wouldn’t be voting for Kerry anyway.

Hat Tip : Captain’s Quarters

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-30

Reuters reports Saturday’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states. This tracking polling which began on Sunday will run each day through November 1:

Kerry reclaimed small leads in Michigan and Iowa, and also led Bush in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Bush had the edge in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and expanded his lead in the showdown state of Ohio from one to five points.

UDATE: I just noticed that the Headline incorrectly said 10-29. It should have been 10-30 and has been corrected.

From California Yankee.

"Reporter saw insurgents loot Qaqaa arms depot"

From IHT:

See also ABC News: Video Suggests Explosives Disappeared After U.S. Took Control, “[KSTP] video may be linked to missing explosives in Iraq” and Al Qaqaa roundup.

From 10/06/04’s Outside Baghdad, lawlessness haunts a small Iraqi town:

Walter Cronkite Opines on OBL Tape

From CNN :

So now the question is basically right now, how will this affect the election? And I have a feeling that it could tilt the election a bit. In fact, I’m a little inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing.

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

Breaking For President Bush

Reuters reports that President Bush’s lead over Kerry has widened to 6 percent among likely voters in Newsweek’s poll.

From California Yankee.

Kerry Has One-Point Lead In Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

Reuters reports that Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

From California Yankee.

Kerry on the OBL Video

From an Op-Ed in the New York Times (with all opinion and editorial content carefully removed, leaving just the facts) . Kerry’s remarks concerning the OBL video :

On Milwaukee television, … “He didn’t choose to use American forces to hunt down Osama bin Laden. He outsourced the job.” Kerry continued …, “I am absolutely confident I have the ability to make America safer.”
[…]
Back in December 2001, when bin Laden was apparently hiding in Tora Bora, Kerry supported the strategy of using Afghans to hunt him down. He told Larry King that our strategy “is having its impact, and it is the best way to protect our troops and sort of minimalize the proximity, if you will. I think we have been doing this pretty effectively, and we should continue to do it that way.”

Foreign Views of OBL Video : An Attempt to Influence US Elections

From The Australian :

From Correspondents in Paris :

Experts around the world called the videotape from Osama bin Laden a heavy-handed attempt to influence the US election just days before the vote, while warning against dismissing it as just propaganda.

“It’s a very crude but sinister attempt to try to influence the presidential election,” said Paul Wilkinson, chairman of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrews University in Scotland.

“The US authorities must take the threat of violence seriously,” he said in an interview with the BBC shortly after the tape aired last night.
[…]
Montasser el-Zayat, a Cairo-based lawyer who defends Islamic radicals, said the video amounted to an “unprecedented attack on (US President George W.) Bush at a very critical time, before the US elections” on November 2.
[..]
Diaa Rashwan, a Cairo-based expert on extremist Muslim militants, said bin Laden was trying to influence Americans “to give (Democratic presidential candidate John) Kerry their votes, not Bush”.

However, Mr Wilkinson told the BBC it was “too early” to predict whether it would help either candidate.

“It is certainly a more flagrant form of propaganda than we have seen before in relation to the American public, but it hasn’t got a hope of influencing American foreign policy,” he said.

“Whoever wins the US election will continue to wage war on al-Qaida and its affiliates … whoever wins the election is unlikely to cut and run from Iraq because they know that policy would be seen as a defeat.”

British newspapers reflected on the dramatic timing of the message, released four days before the US presidential election. “Bin Laden shocks US” was Saturday’s headline in the Financial Times. “The genie is back in a swirl of dust”, said The Times.

“Bin Laden has become to Bush what Saddam Hussein was to the president’s father - a gloating survivor of US foreign policy,” wrote The Times’ Chris Ayres.

On websites devoted to extremist Muslim comment, contributors reacted with glee to the tape, saying it was proof bin Laden was alive and a “slap” at America.

bin Laden Tape Stirs Up Campaigns

The campaigns react to the tapes and to each other:

Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry vowed to “hunt down and destroy” Osama bin Laden if he is elected and criticised President George Bush for failing to capture the al-Qaeda leader who threatened new attacks in a videotape aired on Friday.

[…].

In his formal statement Kerry said: “In response to this tape of Osama bin Laden, let me just make it clear, crystal clear. As Americans we are united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists.”

“They are barbarians, I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes.”

[…]

“I regret that when George Bush had the opportunity in Afghanistan at Tora Bora, he didn’t use our forces to hunt down and kill Osama bin Laden. He outsourced to the war lords.”

Bush reacted to Kerry’s words:

“This is the worst kind of Monday-morning quarterbacking….It is especially shameful in light of the new tape by America’s enemy.”

Bush vowed after the tape aired that “Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country.”

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-29

Reuters reports today’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states. This tracking polling which began on Sunday will run each day through November 1:

Bush led in six of the 10 battleground states being polled. He held slim leads in Ohio and Colorado and held his edge in Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada.

Kerry took a slight lead in Florida and led in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the two candidates battled for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Zogby said Kerry had solidified his support among women, Catholics, singles, Hispanics and 18- to 24-year-olds, but had slipped slightly among black voters to about 82 percent.

From California Yankee.

"In final hours, Bush mailings display images of burning World Trade Center"

Pictures of the mailing are here:

State Department Tried to Stop Airing of Bin Laden Tape

The Associated Press reports that the State Department asked the government of Qatar not to broadcast the Osama bin Laden videotape.

From California Yankee.

Bin Laden Accuses Bush of Deceiving Americans

Reuters reports that Osama bin Laden appeared on Al Jazeera television on Saturday accusing President Bush of deceiving the American people:

In an address just days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, bin Laden also said the U.S. administration resembled “corrupt” Arab governments.

More details in the GWoT section.

From California Yankee.

U.S. Forces Removed Iraq Explosives From Al-Qaqaa

Bloomberg reports that U.S. forces removed as much as 250 tons of ordnance from al-Qaqaa:

Major Austin Pearson, a 3rd Infantry Division officer who led operations at the al-Qaqaa site, said at a Pentagon briefing that he removed explosives from bunkers that were open and accessible. He didn’t see any seals that the International Atomic Energy Agency had placed on bunkers with more than 350 tons of explosives.

“My mission was to minimize the exposure of U.S. forces by taking out what was readily available,” said Pearson, who was at al-Qaqaa on April 13, 2003. “I did not see any IAEA seals. I was not looking for that.”

Munitions Issue Dwarfs the Big Picture

The Washington Post offers some main stream media perspective on the 377 tons of Iraqi explosives reported to have gone missing:

U.S. military commanders estimated last fall that Iraqi military sites contained 650,000 to 1 million tons of explosives, artillery shells, aviation bombs and other ammunition. The Bush administration cited official figures this week showing about 400,000 tons destroyed or in the process of being eliminated. That leaves the whereabouts of more than 250,000 tons unknown.

Against that background, this week’s assertions by Sen. John F. Kerry’s campaign about the few hundred tons said to have vanished from Iraq’s Qaqaa facility have struck some defense experts as exaggerated.

“There is something truly absurd about focusing on 377 tons of rather ordinary explosives, regardless of what actually happened at al Qaqaa,” Anthony H. Cordesman, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in an assessment yesterday. “The munitions at al Qaqaa were at most around 0.06 percent of the total.”

[. . .]

Although invading U.S. forces never secured the facility, defense officials have disputed the notion that such a large quantity of explosives could have been transported without notice by the U.S. military.

Bolstering the possibility that the munitions were removed before U.S. troops arrived, defense officials say, is the Hussein government’s history of moving weapons to elude air attack. An official also said intelligence photos show lots of activity at Qaqaa before U.S. forces reached the site.

Dems, GOP working to capture early voters

AP: Dems, GOP working to capture early voters

Americans are casting early ballots in droves this year, and their reasons are as varied as their politics: Some can’t wait to register their opinions. Some like the convenience. Some just want to be left alone.

For others, it’s all about making sure their votes are properly recorded.

In New Jersey’s Somerset County, elections administrator Janice Hoffman says she’s seeing more people make the extra effort to personally walk their ballots in.

“No dangling chads on mine!” a satisfied Barry Burke pronounced after voting electronically this week in Little Rock, Arkansas.

Whatever the voters’ motivations, Democrats and Republicans alike are tracking their balloting day by day and county by county, hoping to turn the early-voting trend to their advantage. The big question for George W. Bush and John Kerry, whose campaigns have worked tirelessly to turn out early voters, is whether they are locking in new supporters or simply getting the same old voters out to the polls a little earlier.

“There’s a basic rule here: More is better,” said Charlie Baker, captain of the Democrats’ early vote operation. “We are seeing, in a number of states, significantly higher vote-by-mail and early-voting numbers than historically has been the case and that has to be a good thing for the Democrats.”

Bush, Kerry Tied In Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

Bloomberg reports that President Bush and Kerry are deadlocked at 47 percent each in the latest Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll.

From California Yankee.

Appeals court: GOP can't challenge voters

From the Cincinnati Enquirer:

A federal appeals court today upheld a court order barring Ohio’s Republican Party from challenging the validity of 23,000 new voter registrations.

The state GOP contends the registrations may be fraudulent because many of the new voters appear to have invalid addresses. Democrats say the pre-election challenges are unfair and are intended to discourage voters from going to the polls Tuesday.

U.S. District Judge Susan Dlott blocked the challenges Wednesday, but the GOP appealed to the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

A three-judge panel from the 6th Circuit ruled this morning that Dlott’s order should stand.

The judges said they appreciated the concern about potential voter fraud, but they believed there was not adequate time before the election to hold fair hearings to determine the validity of the registrations.

Confusion reigns over Ohio voting

From The Plain Dealer:

The closer Ohio comes to the most contentious election in its history, the more confusion reigns about what will happen Tuesday in the state’s polling places.

First, state Republicans appealed a federal judge’s ruling barring six county election boards, including Cuyahoga’s, from conducting hearings to review the legitimacy of thousands of new voter registrations. But if the judge’s ruling is overturned, it’s not clear whether enough time remains to hold the hearings before Election Day.

Meanwhile, several counties unaffected by the judge’s ruling moved ahead with review hearings. Dozens of angry voters showed up to defend their registrations in Summit County, and the board eventually dismissed nearly 1,000 objections filed by local Republicans. And in Lake County, all but a handful of nearly 100 objections were dismissed.

Also, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell has issued an order governing the presence of “challengers” inside Ohio polling places.

State law allows political parties to place representatives inside the polls to challenge the legitimacy of voters’ registrations before they are issued ballots. Although the law says each group can have one challenger per polling place, Blackwell said each group can have one challenger per precinct - meaning some voters could see a crowd at the many polling places serving more than one precinct.

The dirty tricks campaign continues. The Lake County sheriff fielded complaints about a flier purportedly issued by the county election board. The flier, which is bogus, tells those registered to vote by the NAACP, by Democratic campaigns or certain progressive groups that their registrations are invalid.

Another flier, distributed to 30,000 public housing residents in Cleveland, urges them to vote for a proposed school tax because it won’t cost them anything - angering many who would see their property taxes rise if the levy passes.

Looking in The Wrong Spot : IAEA Defends Report

From Reuters via the ABC comes some data that makes the whole mess of videos, on-the-spot reports and so onabout Al Qaaqaa moot.

Iraq told the IAEA the explosives at the sprawling Al Qaqaa military facility had gone missing through theft and looting due to lack of security after the US-led invasion.

But ABC News (America) reports that confidential IAEA documents show that on January 14, 2003, UN inspectors found just over three tons of one type of explosive, RDX.

That inspection was conducted before the war began.

“The bulk of the RDX was stored at another site that was under Al Qaqaa’s jurisdiction,” IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said.

She says that the report seen by ABC only covers the Al Qaqaa site itself.

The second site, Al Mahaweel, is roughly 45 kilometres from Al Qaqaa.

“They (Iraq) considered that site part of Al Qaqaa and that’s how it was always declared,” she said.

“IAEA inspectors inventoried that site on January 15, 2003,” the day after the Al Qaqaa inspection reported by ABC.
[…]
However, Ms Fleming says it is possible that the Iraqi report on missing explosives overstated the amount of RDX by 10 tons because it did not take account of an earlier Iraqi statement that that amount had been used for civilian purposes.

So the reason why the US Army, NBC, and so on said they didn’t find any RDX amongst the other explosives at Al Qaqaa was… because there weren’t any there, and hadn’t been since at least January 14. But the figures for the other site, over 20 miles away(!) didn’t take into account that the Iraqis had broken the seals and removed some of it before the war.

US Electoral Litigation - An Overseas View

From the Times of London, via The Australian :

Mary Poppins and Dick Tracy are giving election officials sleepless nights as the US heads towards what is likely to be the most litigious presidential poll in history.

The pair are among a cast of fictional characters who have tried to register to vote next Tuesday, clearly as a prelude to attempted fraud.

But they are only the tip of an iceberg which at best threatens to delay the result beyond November 2, and at worst will cripple the credibility of the winner.

Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said the result could be “an election that would make Florida in 2000 look like a picnic”.

Already more than 40 lawsuits have been filed in several swing states, including Florida, challenging the registration of new voters and the procedures for counting the ballot.

There are concerns about an urgent shortage of poll workers, and whether the volunteers, whose average age is 72, will be able to explain to voters how the new touch-screen ballot machines work.

The worries have sparked warnings that the first US presidential election of the 21st century, and by far the most expensive yet, is heading for disaster.

The tense wait has introduced a new phrase into the US political lexicon — the “margin of litigation” — which refers to the percentage of the vote that divides the two main candidates. The smaller the margin is, and the closer the vote in the decisive electoral college, the more likely it is that the initial result will be legally challenged.
[…]
The main problem is the new provisional ballots, introduced by the 2002 Help America Vote Act. They allow people to cast a ballot even if they find their name is not on the registration list when they turn up to vote on the day.

But those votes are not counted immediately. And the act gives no indication about how they should be verified and when they should be counted.

There is one outcome that might avoid a legal crisis, and presidential historian Robert Dallek, for one, is confident it will occur — he expects a clear result. “My sense is the election is not going to be as close as people think.”

Some Numbers concerning the Electoral Roll

Australia has compulsory voting, and a rather more complex election system where you have to state your order of preference of the candidates.

Some numbers from the recent election may be of relevance to those thinking about reform of the US electoral system, and purging bad data from the electoral rolls.

From The Australian :

A pointer to the numbers who vote only because they have to, or use their ballot to make a political protest, is the 21per cent of informal voters who left ballot papers blank in 2001 and the 6per cent who wrote slogans on them. But the AEC[Australian Electoral Commission] says some ballots may be left blank because people forget after first completing their Senate ballot or because they do not understand the voting system and would rather not vote at all than risk making a mistake.

Then there are those who do not vote at all, which is about 10 per cent of Australians older than 18. They include about 5 per cent of those on the electoral roll. After the 2001 election, the AEC scanned the roll and sent letters to almost 427,000 people asking why they had not voted. In most cases, it accepted the explanations, which included being overseas, in hospital or dead. About 40,000 people paid the $20 fine for failing to vote.

The other 5 per cent of non-voters are not on the roll, with the figure highest among the young. The AEC is trying to track them down by checking data at motor registries and Centrelink. Believe it or not, many 18-year-olds are more keen to get their driver’s licences and pick up their welfare payments than they are to get on the electoral roll.

Kerry already making Cabinet selections

TIMES ONLINE: Kerry to opt for the senator who copied Kinnock

THE man whose presidential ambitions were destroyed when he plagiarised Neil Kinnock is set to become America’s chief foreign policymaker if John Kerry is elected President next Tuesday.
Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware has been asked by Mr Kerry to become Secretary of State in a Democratic administration, according to Kerry campaign aides. Mr Biden, the leading Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for the past four years, ran for President in 1988. His campaign ended abruptly when it was revealed that a key element of his stump speech had been lifted directly from Mr Kinnock’s general election speeches in 1987.

But Mr Biden has since emerged as a leading foreign policy figure in the Democratic party and is expected to take the job offered by Mr Kerry unless political factors intervene. Were the Democrats to retake control of the Senate, he might prefer to remain as a lawmaker, but those who know him think that unlikely.

Mr Biden’s possible elevation is one of the thousands of permutations circulating in Washington in the final days before the presidential election. If Mr Biden does go to the State Department it will be a disappointment for Richard Holbrooke, the UN Ambassador during the Clinton Administration and the architect of the Dayton peace accords that ended the Bosnian war in 1995. Mr Holbrooke has lobbied hard for the Secretary of State ’s job. But in what will be seen as both an effort to conciliate the famously self-confident Mr Holbrooke, and as a signal change from Bush administration policy, Mr Kerry is likely to offer him the job of special Middle East peace co-ordinator, senior Democrats say.

Mr Kerry plans to announce both appointments soon after the election as a sign of the urgency he assigns to mending diplomatic fences.

Muslims cite betrayal by Bush

HOUSTON CHRONICLE: Muslims cite betrayal by Bush

Syed Ahmed voted for George W. Bush in 2000. But he won’t this year.

Ahmed, an engineering consultant and one-time delegate to the state Republican convention, said he believes the president has taken the country in the wrong direction.

Like many Muslims around the country who overwhelmingly supported Bush in the last presidential election, Ahmed now appears to be backing Dem-ocratic candidate John Kerry, according to several polls.

Muslim-Americans, who often identify themselves as fiscal and social conservatives, would appear to be a natural constituency for Bush. But when it comes to civil liberties, especially since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, their support is changing.

Muslims are disenchanted with the Bush administration for its support of the Patriot Act, which has left them feeling betrayed, several Muslims leaders said.

“The Patriot Act has many nonpatriotic provisions in it,” Ahmed said.

Political Human Sacrifice takes a shocking turn

As previously discussed, talk jocks John & Ken (KFI AM 640 - Los Angeles) are conducting a “Political Human Sacrifice” of two Californian congressmen. They’re encouraging their listeners to vote those congressmen out of office because of their support for massive illegal immigration. The congressmen are Joe Baca (Democrat) and David Dreier (Republican).

In a shocking development, John & Ken have received a federal complaint filed by the Dreier Campaign (Dreier site here) and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The complaint is relating to the McCain-Feingold law; although a copy of the complaint is not yet publicly available, apparently one of the charges involves John & Ken encouraging the crowd at a Political Human Sacrifice rally to shout “Fire Dreier!”

The L.A. Times reportedly interviewed John & Ken today, and, as they’ve appeared on several national news shows in the past, I would imagine this will receive national attention.

John & Ken are encouraging all their listeners and anyone else to contact the National Republican Congressional Committee; their contact information is here.

Dreier’s opponent is Cynthia Matthews. The district includes most of the San Gabriel Valley foothill communities. A map is here.

UPDATE: KFI producer and blogger Justin Levine comments here.

Red Sox Pitching Ace Curt Schilling To Campaign With President Bush

The Union Leader reports Curt Schilling will appear with Bush at his campaign stops in Manchester and Portsmouth, New Hampshire on Friday.

Schilling urged viewers to vote for Bush on ABC’s “Good Morning America” program:

Schilling made the unexpected endorsement of the President on the ABC program just as he and his wife, Shonda, wrapped up an interview with host Charles Gibson.

“And make sure you tell everybody to vote,” Schilling said Gibson, “and vote Bush next week.”

From California Yankee.

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-28

Reuters reports today’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states:

“It’s close, it’s close, it’s close,” pollster John Zogby said. “The candidates are locked in a dead heat among Catholics, young voters, voters over 70, men and women, and independents.”

Bush also led in five of the 10 battleground states being polled — Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Nevada — with Kerry ahead in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. The key state of Pennsylvania, a must-win for Kerry, was tied.

Bush gained a two-point edge in Michigan after being 10 points behind Kerry when the tracking poll began on Sunday. Bush also led by one point in Florida and Kerry had a three-point edge in Ohio.

From California Yankee.

BBC Election Coverage

FoxNews reports that the BBC unveiled details of its U.S. election coverage:

Headlining the coverage is an election special featuring “Fahrenheit 9/11” director Michael Moore. Joining Mr. Moore will be former Clinton adviser Sidney Blumenthal, former Clinton secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and the militantly anti-Bush billionaire, George Soros. Fair and balanced?

From California Yankee.

The Economist Endorses Kerry

From Economist.com

The incompetent or the incoherent?

With a heavy heart, we think American readers should vote for John Kerry on November 2nd

YOU might have thought that, three years after a devastating terrorist attack on American soil, a period which has featured two wars, radical political and economic legislation, and an adjustment to one of the biggest stockmarket crashes in history, the campaign for the presidency would be an especially elevated and notable affair. If so, you would be wrong. This year’s battle has been between two deeply flawed men: George Bush, who has been a radical, transforming president but who has never seemed truly up to the job, let alone his own ambitions for it; and John Kerry, who often seems to have made up his mind conclusively about something only once, and that was 30 years ago. But on November 2nd, Americans must make their choice, as must The Economist. It is far from an easy call, especially against the backdrop of a turbulent, dangerous world. But, on balance, our instinct is towards change rather than continuity: Mr Kerry, not Mr Bush.

. . . .

The case against George Bush

That decision cannot be separated from the terrible memory of September 11th, nor can it fail to begin as an evaluation of the way in which Mr Bush and his administration responded to that day. For Mr Bush’s record during the past three years has been both inspiring and disturbing.

. . . .

Making sense of John Kerry

That does at least place him on equal terms with his rival, Mr Kerry. With any challenger, voters have to make a leap of faith about what the new man might be like in office. What he says during the campaign is a poor guide: Mr Bush said in 2000 that America should be “a humble nation, but strong” and should eschew nation-building; Mr Clinton claimed in 1992 to want to confront “the butchers of Beijing” and to reflate the economy through public spending.

Like those two previous challengers, Mr Kerry has shaped many of his positions to contrast himself with the incumbent. That is par for the course. What is more disconcerting, however, is the way those positions have oscillated, even as the facts behind them have stayed the same. In the American system, given Congress’s substantial role, presidents should primarily be chosen for their character, their qualities of leadership, for how they might be expected to deal with the crises that may confront them, abroad or at home. Oscillation, even during an election campaign, is a worrying sign.

. . . .

The task ahead, and the man to fit it

In the end, the choice relies on a judgment about who will be better suited to meet the challenges America is likely to face during the next four years. Those challenges must include the probability of another big terrorist attack, in America or western Europe. They must include the need for a period of discipline in economic policy and for compromise on social policy, lest the nation become weak or divided in the face of danger. Above all, though, they include the need to make a success of the rebuilding of Iraq, as the key part of a broader effort to stabilise, modernise and, yes, democratise the Middle East.

Many readers, feeling that Mr Bush has the right vision in foreign policy even if he has made many mistakes, will conclude that the safest option is to leave him in office to finish the job he has started. If Mr Bush is re-elected, and uses a new team and a new approach to achieve that goal, and shakes off his fealty to an extreme minority, the religious right, then The Economist will wish him well. But our confidence in him has been shattered. We agree that his broad vision is the right one but we doubt whether Mr Bush is able to change or has sufficient credibility to succeed, especially in the Islamic world. Iraq’s fledgling democracy, if it gets the chance to be born at all, will need support from its neighbours—or at least non-interference—if it is to survive. So will other efforts in the Middle East, particularly concerning Israel and Iran.

John Kerry says the war was a mistake, which is unfortunate if he is to be commander-in-chief of the soldiers charged with fighting it. But his plan for the next phase in Iraq is identical to Mr Bush’s, which speaks well of his judgment. He has been forthright about the need to win in Iraq, rather than simply to get out, and will stand a chance of making a fresh start in the Israel-Palestine conflict and (though with even greater difficulty) with Iran. After three necessarily tumultuous and transformative years, this is a time for consolidation, for discipline and for repairing America’s moral and practical authority. Furthermore, as Mr Bush has often said, there is a need in life for accountability. He has refused to impose it himself, and so voters should, in our view, impose it on him, given a viable alternative. John Kerry, for all the doubts about him, would be in a better position to carry on with America’s great tasks.

You can read the entire article here.

Quinnipiac Polls: Bush Leads In Pennsylvania And Florida

Bloomberg reports that Quinnipiac University polls find President Bush now leads Kerry in both Florida and Pennsylvania.

Florida Likely Voters
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
The poll was conducted October 22-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.

Pennsylvania Likely Voters
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%
The poll was conducted October 22-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

From California Yankee.

4 Iraqis Tell of Looting at Munitions Site in '03

From the New York Times:

Looters stormed the weapons site at Al Qaqaa in the days after American troops swept through the area in early April 2003 on their way to Baghdad, gutting office buildings, carrying off munitions and even dismantling heavy machinery, three Iraqi witnesses and a regional security chief said Wednesday.

The Iraqis described an orgy of theft so extensive that enterprising residents rented their trucks to looters. But some looting was clearly indiscriminate, with people grabbing anything they could find and later heaving unwanted items off the trucks.

Two witnesses were employees of Al Qaqaa - one a chemical engineer and the other a mechanic - and the third was a former employee, a chemist, who had come back to retrieve his records, determined to keep them out of American hands. The mechanic, Ahmed Saleh Mezher, said employees asked the Americans to protect the site but were told this was not the soldiers’ responsibility.

The accounts do not directly address the question of when 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives vanished from the site sometime after early March, the last time international inspectors checked the seals on the bunkers where the material was stored. It is possible that Iraqi forces removed some explosives before the invasion.

But the accounts make clear that what set off much if not all of the looting was the arrival and swift departure of American troops, who did not secure the site after inducing the Iraqi forces to abandon it.

“The looting started after the collapse of the regime,” said Wathiq al-Dulaimi, a regional security chief, who was based nearby in Latifiya. But once it had begun, he said, the booty streamed toward Baghdad.

Read the rest here.

"[KSTP] video may be linked to missing explosives in Iraq"

From Minneapolis/St. Paul TV station KSTP:

Bush's Lead Narrows To 1 In Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

Bloomberg reports that President Bush and Kerry are statistically tied in the Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll:

Bush 48% - Kerry 46%

UPDATE: The post was supposed to read “Bush 48 Kerry 46,” not “Bush 48 Kerry 47.” I have corrected the post. I wish to thank TCP reader dickmr for pointing out the error.

From California Yankee.

The Campaign So Far

An Animated Map Display from Electoral-vote.com shows the poll results for each state over time.

The above is a snapshot taken at time of writing, so please visit the original site for the latest update.

This is an excellent way of finding out the volatility of the electoral college, and what the trends have been at various times.

What To Do if you have a Problem with Your Voter Registration

From Electoral-vote.com :

Several lawyers have contacted me about the issue of what to do if you show up to vote and the election officials say you are not registered. Here is the procedure. First, be absolutely sure you are in the correct precinct. If you are in the wrong precinct, in most states, your vote won’t be counted. If you are not 100% certain of your polling place, go to www.mypollingplace.com and check. Alternatively, call the toll-free number 1-866-OUR-VOTE or your county clerk. If you are sure you are in the correct polling place and the officials claim you are not registered, ask for a provisional ballot and fill it out correctly. You are entitled to one by law. Politely, but firmly, insist on being given a provisional ballot.

Hat Tip : Instapundit

Iraqis May Have Overstated Amount Of Missing Explosives

ABC News reports that documents show Iraqis may be overstating amount of missing explosives:

The information on which the Iraqi Science Ministry based an Oct. 10 memo in which it reported that 377 tons of RDX explosives were missing — presumably stolen due to a lack of security — was based on “declaration” from July 15, 2002. At that time, the Iraqis said there were 141 tons of RDX explosives at the facility.

But the confidential IAEA documents obtained by ABC News show that on Jan. 14, 2003, the agency’s inspectors recorded that just over 3 tons of RDX was stored at the facility — a considerable discrepancy from what the Iraqis reported.

The IAEA documents could mean that 138 tons of explosives were removed from the facility long before the start of the United States launched “Operation Iraqi Freedom” in March 2003.

From California Yankee.

Did The Russians Take The Missing Explosives?

The Financial Times reports that John Shaw, a deputy under-secretary of defense, suggested that “Russian units” had transported the explosives out of the country:

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Shaw said: “For nearly nine months my office has been aware of an elaborate scheme set up by Saddam Hussein to finance and disguise his weapons purchases through his international suppliers, principally the Russians and French. That network included. . . employing various Russian units on the eve of hostilities to orchestrate the collection of munitions and assure their transport out of Iraq via Syria.”

The Russian embassy in Washington rejected the claims as “nonsense”, saying there were no Russian military in the country at the time.

Mr Shaw, who heads the Pentagon’s international armament and technology trade directorate, has not provided evidence for his claims and the Pentagon distanced itself from his remarks.

“I am unaware of any particular information on that point,” said Larry Di Rita, Pentagon spokesman.

Thanks to Rob, a reader of my “Commander Says Unlikely Large-Scale Removal of Explosives Occurred After U.S. Invasion” post for the tip.

UPDATE: The Washington Times provides more details to the theory that the Russians removed the missing explosives.

According to the Washington Times, Russian special forces troops moved many of Saddam Hussein’s weapons and related goods out of Iraq and into Syria in the weeks before the March 2003 U.S. military operation. The Washington Times, puts more faith in John Shaw, than did the Financial Times quoting Shaw extensively and not indicating, as did the Financial Times that the Pentagon distanced itself from Shaw’s remarks:

From California Yankee, here and here.

The One-Fingered Victory Salute

Another strictly non-serious electoral moment. Bush Uncensored

Hat Tip Instapundit

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-27

Reuters reports today’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states:

Kerry also moved into a 46-45 percent lead in Ohio, gaining three points on Bush, and led 49-46 percent in Pennsylvania. But Bush led 48-46 percent in Florida and moved into a dead heat with Kerry in Michigan, a state that Kerry led by 10 points just three days ago.

Bush had a solid 51-44 percent lead on Kerry in Nevada, but all of the other results in the 10 battleground states were within the state polls’ margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Kerry also led in Colorado, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and Bush led in New Mexico. Iowa and Michigan were tied.

From California Yankee.

Huge Turnout For Early Voting In WV

[This is an early report from one of TCP’s Election Day correspondents. It originally appeared here]

A local Charleston, WV radio station (V100) reported this morning that 73,000 people have early-voted in WV. This is over one-sixth of the turnout of the 2002 off-year election—and Election Day is not even here yet! Increasing turnout is what early voting is designed to do. Wouldn’t it be great if this means the votes can be counted much earlier, say before midnight local time on Nov 2?

—— Steve Bragg

Commander Says Unlikely Large-Scale Removal of Explosives Occurred After U.S. Invasion

The infantry commander whose troops first captured Al-Qaqaa said Wednesday it is “very highly improbable” that someone could have trucked out so much material once U.S. forces arrived in the area. The Associated Press:

Two major roads that pass near the sprawling Al-Qaqaa installation were filled with U.S. military traffic in the weeks after April 3, 2003, when U.S. troops first reached the area, said Col. Dave Perkins, who commanded the 2nd Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division, the division that led the charge into Baghdad.

While he and other military officials acknowledged that some looting at the site had taken place, he said a large-scale operation to remove the explosives using multi-ton trucks would have almost certainly have been detected.

[. . .]

Larry Di Rita, the Pentagon’s top spokesman, said what ultimately happened to the explosives is unknown, although it remains under investigation by the Pentagon. But Perkins’ description seemed to point toward the possibility that the explosives were removed before the U.S.-led invasion to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, and not during the chaos afterward.

From California Yankee.

Political Human Sacrifice

If you live in Southern California, you’ve probably heard about Political Human Sacrifice by now. That’s the attempt by KFI AM 640 talk jocks John & Ken to unseat two Congressmen who refuse to do anything about our incredible problem with illegal immigration. These are the same talk jocks who played a major role in getting former governor Gray Davis recalled.

The goal is to send the message to politicians in Washington: either do something about massive illegal immigration, or lose your job.

If you aren’t familiar with how much illegal immigration is a hot button issue in SoCal, I’d suggest listening to their show. You can listen live over the internet here; they’re on from 3pm to 7pm Pacific time M-F. They have a segment on Political Human Sacrifice every day at 5pm Pacific time. And, they freely admit they’re doing this for ratings: their ratings have gone up since starting the sacrifice.

This effort is controversial and has national implications because one of the Congressmen is David Dreier, the third most powerful Republican in the House. The other Congressman selected to be “sacrificed” is Joe Baca, a Democrat.

John & Ken are encouraging their million-plus listeners to vote for their challengers.

In Dreier’s case that’s Cynthia Matthews, and in Baca’s case it’s Ed Laning.

Dreier appears to be worried. He’s spent around a million dollars on the campaign so far, and he’s even gotten Arnold Schwarzenegger to record a message that’s being phoned to his district. Dreier claims that his record on illegal immigration has been misrepresented, but a little research shows that’s not the case.

Dreier also has the assistance of a local newspaper chain that’s going to bat for him. Details here, including an example of a blatant lie by Dreier. As for Baca, read more about him here. The Washington Times offers older coverage here and here, and this has received national coverage in other papers as well. See also this site from a supporter of the effort. KFI producer and blogger Justin Levine has posts about this here and here.

To see what prompted Political Human Sacrifice and how angry many citizens are about this issue, read about the Temecula townhall meeting. And, to read about the administration’s heavy-handed tactics to influence John & Ken’s coverage of illegal immigration, click here.

Um, About Those Late-Breaking Undecideds . . .

Rasmussen has the good news for President Bush:

Drudge's Siren: Pre-Election Terror?

The usual Matt Drudge grain-of-salt warning applies.

Here’s the full flashing-siren, extra large font report:

ABCNEWS HOLDS TERROR WARNING TAPE

**Exclusive**

In the last week before the election, ABCNEWS is holding a videotaped message from a purported al Qaeda terrorist warning of a new attack on America, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

The terrorist claims on tape the next attack will dwarf 9/11. “The streets will run with blood,” and “America will mourn in silence” because they will be unable to count the number of the dead. Further claims: America has brought this on itself for electing George Bush who has made war on Islam by destroying the Taliban and making war on Al Qaeda.

ABCNEWS strongly denies holding the tape back from broadcast over political concerns during the last days of the election.

The CIA is analyzing the tape, a top federal source tells the DRUDGE REPORT.

ABCNEWS obtained the tape from a source in Waziristan, Pakistan over the weekend, sources tells DRUDGE.

“We have been working 24 hours a day trying to authenticate [the tape],” a senior ABCNEWS source said Wednesday morning.

The terrorist’s face is concealed by a head dress, and he speaks in an American accent, making it difficult to identify the individual.

US intelligence officials believe the man on tape may be Adam Gadhan - aka Adam Pearlman, a California native who was highlighted by the FBI in May as an individual most likely to be involved in or have knowledge of the next al Qaeda attacks.

According to the FBI, Gadahn, 25, attended al-Qaida training camps and served as an al-Qaida translator.

The disturbing tape runs an hour — the man simply identifies himself as ‘Assam the American.’

More if/when this develops.

Some info on Adam Pearlman.

"Wild Charges" Leveled In Desperation

Agence France-Presse reports that President Bush responded to Kerry’s attacks about missing Iraqi explosives calling Kerry’s explosive claims “wild charges” levelled in desperation.

“The senator is making wild charges about missing explosives,” said Bush. “Think about that: The senator is denigrating the action of our troops and commanders in the field without knowing the facts.”

“Unfortunately, that’s part of a pattern of saying almost anything to get elected,” said the president, whom Kerry has accused of incompetent war planning in the wake of media revelations that the explosives went missing.

“America is now investigating a number of possible scenarios, including that the explosives may have been moved before our troops even arrived at the site,” said Bush.

“This investigation is important, and a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not the person you want as your commander in chief,” said Bush.

Kerry Takes Lead In ABC/Washington Post Tracking Poll

Bloomberg reports that Kerry has taken the lead in the Washington Post tracking poll 50 percent to 48 percent.

From California Yankee.

Kerry Picks Up Two Points in Reuters/Zogby Poll

From Reuters

President Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry by 1 point with six days left in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Bush led Kerry 48-47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, as the Massachusetts senator gained 2 points on Bush in a day. Bush led Kerry 49-46 percent on Tuesday.

Bush’s lead was well within the poll’s margin of error, leaving the White House rivals in a statistical dead heat heading into the stretch run.

“Today was a big day for Kerry,” pollster John Zogby said.

Kerry has consolidated his base support just as Bush did early in the race, taking a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics, 90 percent of blacks, 84 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of union voters and 65 percent of singles.

Only 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

At this stage of the 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by 5 points in the daily tracking poll.

Read the rest here.

Bush, Kerry Tied at 46% in New Jersey

Bloomberg reports that a new Quinnipiac University poll President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are tied at 46 percent each in New Jersey:

“We’ve counted carefully and frequently, but Senator Kerry hasn’t been able to pull away from President Bush in New Jersey,” Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

From California Yankee.

Eleven Percent Have Voted in Miami Dade

Eleven Percent Have Voted in Miami-Dade County
— Local Issues are pushing the Presidential Candidates Aside

by Frank Derfler www.derfler.net

The Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections is reporting that 122,788 persons used early voting as of October 26. That’s 11.5% of the registered voters. That office sent out approximately the same number of absentee ballots. So, about 22% of the registered voters in Miami-Dade are accounted for. The numbers from Broward County and Hillsborough County show about the same percentages.

The Miami Herald continues to report long lines with over an hour wait at the polling locations. It makes a good story. My continued personal surveys show significant peaks and valleys in voters arriving during the day. At times during the mid-afternoon you can walk right in.

The pace of the ads from the presidential candicates during prime time TV and drive-time radio seems to be slowing. You can go for a number of minutes without hearing an attack on Bush or Kerry. But, the attacks between doctors and lawyers, between gambling interests and family value supporters, and between senatorial candidates are increasing in volume and VOLUME.

Again, I don’t advise trusting any polls from Florida. Undecided voters are as rare as snowflakes in the Everglades.

Now, it’s all about who goes to the polls. See the previous posting on this board about the 45,000 people registered in both New York and Florida. No wonder the Republicans have Ed Koch and the Democrats have Bill Clinton both working the area of North Miami!

Terrorists Hope To defeat Bush

The Washington Times reports that leaders and supporters of the Iraqi insurgency say that the objective of attacks in recent weeks has been to defeat President Bush.

“If the U.S. Army suffered numerous humiliating losses, [Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John] Kerry would emerge as the superman of the American people,” said Mohammad Amin Bashar, a leader of the Muslim Scholars Association, a hard-line clerical group that vocally supports the resistance.

Resistance leader Abu Jalal boasted that the mounting violence had already hurt Mr. Bush’s chances.

“American elections and Iraq are linked tightly together,” he told a Fallujah-based Iraqi reporter. “We’ve got to work to change the election, and we’ve done so. With our strikes, we’ve dragged Bush into the mud.”

From California Yankee.

Al Qaqaa roundup

From No Check of Bunker, Unit Commander Says:

Other reports:

10/26/04’s Al-Qaqaa spokesman says no weapons search has similar comments from the spokesman for the same unit.

10/26/04’s Timing of theft of explosives a mystery: Army officials told NBC News on condition of anonymity that troops from the Army’s 3rd Infantry did not arrive at Al-Qaqaa until April 4, finding “looters everywhere” carrying what they could out on their backs. The troops searched bunkers and found conventional weapons but no high explosives, the officials said. Six days later, the 101st Airborne Division arrived. Neither group was specifically searching for HMX or RDX, and the complex is so large — with more than 1,000 buildings — that it is not clear that the troops even saw the bunkers that might have held the explosives. The Iraq Survey Group discovered that the stockpiles of HMX and RDX were missing on May 27, seven weeks after the last visit by U.S. troops.

10/26/04’s Embedded Reporter Saw No Explosives Search: “There wasn’t a search,” [NBC Dateline reporter Lai Ling Jew] told MSNBC, an NBC cable news channel. “The mission that the brigade had was to get to Baghdad. That was more of a pit stop there for us. And, you know, the searching, I mean certainly some of the soldiers head off on their own, looked through the bunkers just to look at the vast amount of ordnance lying around.

10/26/04’s Paula Zahn: talks to former assistant Secretary of State Jamie Rubin, now a foreign policy adviser to the Kerry campaign, and Dan Senor, the former spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority now representing the Bush campaign about this issue.

AP’s 10/25/04 Timeline on missing explosives in Iraq

10/06/04’s Outside Baghdad, lawlessness haunts a small Iraqi town: The insurgents probably are using weapons and ammunition looted from the nearby Qa-Qaa complex, a 3-mile by 3-mile weapons-storage facility about 25 miles southwest of Baghdad, said Maj. Brian Neil, operations officer for the 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marine Regiment, which initially patrolled the area. The facility was bombed during last year’s invasion and then left unguarded, Neil said. “There’s definitely no shortage of weapons around here,” he said.

April 5, 2003’s Banned Iraqi Weapons Might Be Hard to Find briefly describes items found at al Qaqaa.

Earlier links in “White House Downplays Missing Iraq Explosives”.

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-26

Reuters reports today’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states.

Kerry moved ahead of Bush in Wisconsin and led the president in five of the 10 battleground state polls, with the race in Iowa a dead heat at 45 percent each.

From California Yankee.

9 Percent Of Likely Voters Have Voted

ABCNews reports that nine percent of “likely” voters in the ABC News tracking poll have already voted for president, either by absentee ballot or early voting. Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry.

From California Yankee.

Kerry Adds Another Point In Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll

For the third straight day, the Washington Post daily tracking poll has John Kerry picking up a percentage point, while President Bush and Ralph Nader remained unchanged:

Kerry: 50%
Bush 48%
Nader 1%

View the full poll results here.

Flash TCP 2004 Election Triva Question (And Free Swag)!

Forget the flash polls … between now and election day we’ll be having Flash 2004 Election Trivia Contests! Here’s the first:

Which US President had the custom of taking a nude swim in the Potomac River early each morning?

Provide your answer in the comments … a Command Post mug goes to the person with the first correct answer!

Bush 49% Kerry's 46% In Daily Zogby Poll

Bloomberg reports that President Bush leads Kerry by 3 points 49% to 46% in the latest daily Reuters/Zogby tracking poll.

From California Yankee.

Electoral Roll Problems - Fraudulent and Otherwise

At least one blogger has been victimised. From Tall Glass Of Milk :

Sometime between the recall election and today, someone other than myself has taken the liberty of registering me as a democrat at an address I do not and have never lived at—and they used or forged my signature to do it.

It’s now in the hands of Law Enforcement.

More on (possibly) bogus addresses and registrations, from the Cleveland Plain Dealer :

The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections must find more than 17,000 registered voters by Friday to tell them they may be culled from the rolls by Republican challengers.

One problem: the very reason these voters are being challenged is because the elections board can’t seem to reach them.

On Friday, the Ohio Republican Party filed papers questioning the validity of the registrations because the voters’ addresses appeared to be wrong and the mail from the elections board was being returned.

The voters must be allowed to show that their registrations are valid before Sunday. So today, election officials will begin mailing out urgent notices to these voters to the same flawed addresses on their registration forms.

“It’s almost a flaw in the law,” said Michael Vu, director of the county’s elections board.

The elections board plans to hold hearings Friday and Saturday at the Cleveland Convention Center to review all the challenges. But Vu said the board has never before dealt with challenges to the voter rolls, and the procedures were still unclear on Monday.

County prosecutors said the burden should be on Republicans to prove that a voter registration is invalid. But how much evidence is enough? That’s one of the questions that local election officials around the state hope will be answered today by Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, Ohio’s chief election official.

From the New York Daily News :

Some 46,000 New Yorkers are registered to vote in both the city and Florida, a shocking finding that exposes both states to potential abuses that could alter the outcome of elections, a Daily News investigation shows.

Registering in two places is illegal in both states, but the massive snowbird scandal goes undetected because election officials don’t check rolls across state lines.

The finding is even more stunning given the pivotal role Florida played in the 2000 presidential election, when a margin there of 537 votes tipped a victory to George W. Bush.

Computer records analyzed by The News don’t allow for an exact count of how many people vote in both places, because millions of names are regularly purged between elections.

But The News found that between 400 and 1,000 registered voters have voted twice in at least one election, a federal offense punishable by up to five years in prison and a $10,000 fine.

One was Norman Siegel, 84, who is registered as a Republican in both Pinellas Park, Fla., and Briarwood, Queens. Siegel has voted twice in seven elections, including the last four presidential races, records show.
[…]
The News’ investigation also found:

• Of the 46,000 registered in both states, 68% are Democrats, 12% are Republicans and 16% didn’t claim a party.
• Nearly 1,700 of those registered in both states requested that absentee ballots be mailed to their home in the other state, where they are also registered. But that doesn’t raise red flags with officials in either place.

From MSNBC :

Ohio’s voter-registration rolls contain more than 120,000 duplicate names, and an untold number of ineligible voters, such as people who have moved out of the state. A review of the rolls by the Columbus Dispatch even found a murder victim and two suspected terrorists among the eligible.
Democrats fear that polling places will be inadequately staffed and equipped to handle the crush of voters on Election Day. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Ohio) said Monday she was concerned that many new voters will not get proper notification from county election boards about where to vote — a critical issue in light of a federal appeals court ruling Saturday that voters with provisional ballots — back-up ballots for voters whose names do not appear on the rolls — must cast them in their own precinct for the votes to count.

From the Osceola News-Gazette :

[assistant supervisor of elections]Click said that on Thursday it was determined that a resident who is a student at the University of Central Florida believed she was signing an election petition earlier this year and subsequently a voter registration form was turned in at the elections office with her name on it and with a party designation checked and initialed. According to Click, the person already was registered.

The Osceola County problem is exactly the type of voter fraud state officials are investigating, namely that signatures or possible forged signatures were used to complete fraudulent voter registrations.

In other instances, it appears that workers hired to obtain legitimate voter registrations filled in the information on the registration forms that should have been completed by the registrants. On several occasions, workers appear to have signed multiple voter registrations themselves using information obtained during the registration drive.

Widespread submissions of suspected fraudulent voter applications have been reported so far in Bay, Alachua and Orange counties as well as in Jacksonville, according to state officials.

T-Minus 7 Days and Counting

The heat is on: the Penultimate Toast-O-Meter is available at PoliBlog.

"White House Downplays Missing Iraq Explosives"

From Drudge:

However, from this:

At the Pentagon, an official who monitors developments in Iraq said U.S.-led coalition troops had searched Al Qaqaa in the immediate aftermath of the March 2003 invasion and confirmed that the explosives were intact. Thereafter the site was not secured by U.S. forces, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

And, note that the April 10, 2003 visit by NBC was not the first time troops arrived at the facility, and that the facility has 87 or so buildings.

See “Are troops at tip of Iraq chemical weapon cache?” That describes a visit to al Qaqaa on Friday, April 4, 2003:

The NYT has more on the political ramifications and statements from administration officials in “Iraq Explosives Become Issue in Campaign”.

UPDATE: The oft-repeated phrase “the explosives weren’t there when troops arrived” could be correct. However, it’s also quite misleading, and perhaps intentionally so. That phrase does not acknowledge that the troops in question were not the first U.S. troops at the site.

The NBC reporter visited the site on April 10. However, another group of U.S. troops visited the site six days earlier, on April 4. And, those April 4 troops found “thousands of 2-inch by 5-inch boxes, each containing three vials of white powder.” The white powder was believed to be explosives. I included this information in the original post, but it bears repeating.

Note also this:

UPDATE 2: On MSNBC today (October 26), the NBC Dateline producer (Lai Ling Jew) who arrived on the scene on April 10 was interviewed. A partial transcript is here:

UPDATE 3: The AP report Embedded Reporter Saw No Explosives Search summarizes the transcript in Update 2.

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-25

Reuters reports today’s results of Zogby’s polling in 10 battleground states.

President Bush leads Kerry in six of 10 crucial battleground states, but the lead is a statistically insignificant one point in Ohio and Florida.

From California Yankee.

Blogzograsmussen Poll: Catalano Leads By 27 Points

Just been wanting to post that all day. These polls are nuts. What they tell me: we’re just about 50/50, and the variance is all margin of error.

So be sure to stick with Command Post all through November 2nd. We’ll have nearly 90 citizen journalists—in addition to our 160+ regular contributors—out in the field posting it as they see it, from all 50 states and countries abroad.

We’ll also have the chat room open all day, and a few other things we’re ginning up, including giveaways of Command Post swag.

So take the day off work and get ready to participate in the first truly blogged national election.

Oh: and Michele rocks … like Ronnie. James. Dio.

Kerry Takes Lead in Washington Post Tracking Poll

The Washington Post’s daily traking poll shows John Kerry taking a one point lead over George Bush.

Kerry: 49%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 1%

The numbers for Bush and Kerry were reversed in yesterday’s poll. Also from the Post’s poll:

Poll Shows Majority Say Country Is Headed in Wrong Direction

A majority of likely voters says the country is headed in the wrong direction, but these Americans remain sharply divided whether President Bush or Democratic challenger John F. Kerry is the best choice to lead the country over the next four years, according to a Washington Post tracking poll.
Fifty-five percent of the likely voters interviewed Oct. 21-24 said they believe the country was “pretty seriously off on the wrong track,” while 41 percent said it was “generally going in the right direction.” Among the larger pool of self-described registered voters, and among all adults, the proportions were the same.

View detailed results here.

Bush Leads By 5 Points In Gallup/USA Today/CNN Poll

CNN reports that President Bush leads Kerry by 5 Points in the latest Gallup/USA Today/CNN Poll:

Likely Voters
Bush 51%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%

From California Yankee.

Sinclair Sharehloders Pay a Price

From the Washington Post:

TV Company Takes a Hit on Stock, Ethics

The last thing the long-suffering shareholders of Sinclair Broadcast Group needed was a flap over journalism ethics.

Even before the brouhaha over its reported plan to broadcast a film attacking Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) as a news special, Sinclair was among the worst-performing stocks of companies based in Maryland, Virginia and the District.

Sinclair stock, which peaked at $15.43 just before New Year’s Day, closed Friday at $7.17, down 52 percent from that high. And that was after a strong rebound that began Wednesday following Sinclair’s announcement that it wouldn’t air the entire anti-Kerry documentary after all. Before that, Sinclair stock fell for nine days in a row in response to the controversy, something the company downplayed Friday.

“Our stock has been hurt by a soft advertising market and a tough economy,” said Barry M. Faber, Sinclair’s general counsel.

Though not well-known outside Baltimore and the broadcasting business, Sinclair is the nation’s largest owner and operator of television stations. Mostly located in medium-sized cities, such as Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, the 62 Sinclair stations reach about one-quarter of the people in America.

Sinclair executives insist the media have misrepresented its side of the story ever since the Los Angeles Times reported Sinclair had ordered station managers to drop their regularly-scheduled programming and run a film in which former American prisoners of war in Vietnam criticized Kerry’s anti-war activities.

Sinclair officials note that critics spoke without seeing the program, which hadn’t even been completed when the incident began. The show finally aired last Friday night on about 40 Sinclair stations.

You don’t have to be a media critic or a political partisan to know that when the talking heads stop jabbering, Sinclair shareholders will be the losers. Even analysts for Baltimore investment firms with long ties to Sinclair warn that the incident is bad business.

“While we will not prejudge the content of the show and its potential long-term implications, we do believe that [fourth quarter] advertising revenue is being impaired due to cancellations,” wrote Sean P. Butson and Lamont N. Corprew, broadcasting industry analysts at Legg Mason, in a memo to clients last week.

Check SBGI stock quote here.

Kerry Regains Lead In Rasmussen Tracking Poll

Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll
Bush 46%
Kerry 48%
The poll was conducted October 22-24 and has a margin of error is plus or minus 2 percent.

This is the first time the Rasmussen tracking poll found Kerry leading since August 23.

From California Yankee.

Bush 48% Kerry's 45% In Daily Zogby Poll

Bloomberg reports that President Bush leads Kerry by 3 percentage points 48% to $%5 in the latest daily Reuters/Zogby tracking poll.

Reuters/Zogby polls over the previous three days showed Bush up 2 points.

From California Yankee.

Kerry Accuses Bush of Incompetence

From the AP via Yahoo! News:

President Bush, presenting himself as the best candidate to keep America safe, was accused by John Kerry on Monday of “unbelievable incompetence” in the disappearance of hundreds of tons of powerful explosives in Iraq.

“Every step of the way, this administration has miscalculated,” Kerry said in Dover, N.H. He spoke shortly before traveling to Philadelphia for a rally with former President Clinton, who was making his first political appearance since heart surgery nearly seven weeks ago.

Kerry said the Bush administration had “miscalculated about how to go to war, miscalculated about the numbers of troops that we would need, miscalculated about sending young Americans to war without the armor they needed, without the Humvees they needed that were armored.”

“And the incredible incompetence of this president and this administration has put our troops at risk and put this country at greater risk than we ought to be,” Kerry said.

Running mate John Edwards, campaigning in Ohio, added, “After today, it’s hard to imagine that even they’ll continue believing things are going well.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency said about 350 tons of highly explosive material had disappeared in Iraq, apparently stolen because of a lack of security at governmental installations.

The central argument of Bush’s re-election campaign is that he can do a better job protecting America than Kerry, and polls show that voters trust Bush more on this issue. The Bush campaign dismissed Kerry’s criticism of the missing explosives without responding to the allegations.

“John Kerry has no vision for fighting and winning the war on terror, so he is basing his attacks on the headlines he wakes up to each day,” Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt said. “If John Kerry wants to spend the next eight days trying to explain his positions again, we welcome that debate.”

Read the rest here.

The New York Times is reporting “Kerry Calls Missing Explosives One of Bush’s ‘Great Blunders’”

Clinton Stumps for Kerry

“I want to do this,” Clinton told ABC News’ Diane Sawyer in an exclusive interview that aired today on “Good Morning America.”

“Senator Kerry asked me to do it, and I want to do it. And … because it’s [the race for the White House] close and because I think it’s important. And because the differences between the two candidates and the courses they’ll pursue in the next four years are so profound.”

Clinton is scheduled to appear with Kerry today at a rally in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, hoping to give the Massachusetts senator a boost in the last full week of his campaign before the Nov. 2 presidential election. Clinton has been recovering from his Sept. 6 heart surgery at his home in Chappaqua, N.Y.

Read more…

Security Council Members Deny Meeting Kerry

The Washington Times reports that U.N. ambassadors from several nations are disputing assertions by Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry that he met for hours with all members of the U.N. Security Council just a week before voting in October 2002 to authorize the use of force in Iraq.

From California Yankee.

Zogby Polls Ten Battleground States

Reuters reports that Zogby has begun polling of ten crucial battleground states, which began on Sunday and will run each day through November 1:

From California Yankee.

Impact Of Bush And Kerry Economic Plans Indistinguishable

The Associated Press reports that based on the candidates economic plans growth and job creation should turn out pretty much the same no matter who wins the election.

From California Yankee.

Reuters Poll: Bush Keeps Two-Point Lead

Reuters reports that President Bush maintained a two-point lead for the third consecutive day in the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby tracking poll released on Sunday.

From California Yankee.

Flu vaccine shortage roundup

10/19/04’s “Experts have been predicting flu vaccine shortage for years” offers a short but informative FAQ and 10/17/04’s “With Few Suppliers of Flu Shots, Shortage Was Long in Making” (excerpted below) is a longer piece that provides a good overview of the problem.

The most newsworthy charge is in “Without a Clue on Flu: A Hapless Performance on the Flu Vaccine”:

10/22/04’s “FDA ‘would have’ spotted flu shot problems” confirms that the FDA had not inspected the Liverpool plant during the period indicated above. The FDA claims that based on a “troubling” safety report from Chiron that the FDA ordered in August 2004, it would have reinspected the plant, but Britain’s 10/5/04 decision to halt production at the plant made that reinspection unnecessary.

Chiron’s Liverpool plant had changed owners a few times recently, it had a history of problems, and Chiron may have ramped up production too quickly. See “Questions remain about flu-vaccine maker” and “British plant suffers in flu vaccine fiasco”.

From 10/9/04’s “Britain: U.S. Told Of Vaccine Shortage”:

As for the bottom line, from 10/22/04’s “Flu vaccine shortage could cost billions”

The shortage resulted in “New Kerry Ad on Bush Flu Failures”. The GOP responds here. Rush Limbaugh blames it on Bill Clinton here. The NYT editorializes in “Supplying flu vaccine”. Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) offers 10/18/04’s “Flu Vaccine Crisis: The Administration’s Response to Recommendations and Warnings” [PDF file]. Intel chairman Andy Grove says he’s voting for Kerry specifically because of this issue and what it indicates about the administration in “Flu muddle makes Intel’s Grove mad at administration”: “I can’t make an argument that a Kerry government would be better… But I can argue that (the Bush) government is not working and is unlikely to change.”

From 10/16/04’s Shaheen says administration was warned of flu vaccine issues:

The HHS requested that that private sector statement be included in the GAO report. See the letter in the 5/2001 GAO PDF “Supply Problems Heighten Need to Ensure Access for High-Risk People”.

The PDF “John Kerry’s Plan to Address the Flu Vaccine Crisis” proposes adding flu vaccine manufacturers to the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, encouraging multiple manufacturers, and establishing a “strategic reserve of flu vaccine… The government will guarantee purchases of unused vaccines at the end of the flu season to help prepare for the possibility of sudden shortages…”

During the third presidential debate, president Bush addressed this issue:

07/30/2001’s “Production of vaccines in dire need of a boost” warned of potential problems over three years ago:

Chiron is under attack: “Shareholder Class Action Filed Against Chiron Corporation by The Law Firm of Schiffrin & Barroway, LLP”, but seems to have already started protecting themselves at the start of 2004. From “Big lobbying effort from Chiron could boost defense”:

10/19/04’s “Flu vaccine providers took a random shot” discusses distribution issues, how chain pharmacies got some supplies and smaller pharmacies did not, etc. Summary: “Those lucky or big enough to order vaccine from Aventis got some. Those who ordered from Chiron did not.”

From 10/10/04’s “Flu shot shortage exposes bug in vaccine industry”

The FDA offers 2004 Chiron Flu Vaccine Chronology

10/20/04’s “Chiron vaccine in doubt for 2005” says that statement from Chiron might just be CYA.

10/17/04 With Few Suppliers of Flu Shots, Shortage Was Long in Making:

5/15/01’s GAO PDF Flu Vaccine: Supply Problems Heighten Need to Ensure Access for High-Risk People

From 10/11/04’s Experts Urge More Firms to Make Flu Shots:

Bush's IQ Greater Than Kerry's

The New York Times reports that George W. Bush probably had a higher I.Q. than John Kerry:

That, at least, is the conclusion of Steve Sailer, a conservative columnist at the Web magazine Vdare.com and a veteran student of presidential I.Q.’s. During the last presidential campaign Mr. Sailer estimated from Mr. Bush’s SAT score (1206) that his I.Q. was in the mid-120’s, about 10 points lower than Al Gore’s.

Mr. Kerry’s SAT score is not known, but now Mr. Sailer has done a comparison of the intelligence tests in the candidates’ military records. They are not formal I.Q. tests, but Mr. Sailer says they are similar enough to make reasonable extrapolations.

Mr. Bush’s score on the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test at age 22 again suggests that his I.Q was the mid-120’s, putting Mr. Bush in about the 95th percentile of the population, according to Mr. Sailer. Mr. Kerry’s I.Q. was about 120, in the 91st percentile, according to Mr. Sailer’s extrapolation of his score at age 22 on the Navy Officer Qualification Test.

Linda Gottfredson, an I.Q. expert at the University of Delaware, called it a creditable analysis said she was not surprised at the results or that so many people had assumed that Mr. Kerry was smarter. “People will often be misled into thinking someone is brighter if he says something complicated they can’t understand,” Professor Gottfredson said.

WaPo endorses Kerry

The Washington Post had endorsed John Kerry for President.

Read full editorial

More Election Violence

Though it’s relatively low-level, so far.

From The Oregonian :

Someone smashed the windows of the Multnomah County Republican office in Southeast Portland on Thursday
[…]
Patrick Donaldson, volunteer chairman of the Bush campaign in Multnomah County, said the broken windows, discovered early in the morning, follow weeks of harassment, including threatening phone calls and people walking into the office and ripping up signs.

”Any Bush supporter will tell you the various levels of disdain from co-workers and complete strangers when they assert they’re Republican, that level of disdain was nowhere near this in 2000,” Donaldson said. “I’m not saying we are without fault, but these efforts to try to intimidate us and frighten us . . . it really upsets me.”

Oregon Democratic Party officials said they do not condone smashing the windows of Republican offices and discourage such acts.

“But the fact is that the reason the Republican Party is feigning righteous indignation is because they don’t want to talk about the 30,000 jobs lost and the 180,000 Oregonians who have lost health care,” said Neel Pender, executive director of the state Democratic Party.

From the Arizona Sun-Daily :

Political motivations turned criminal Thursday night or early Friday when vandals smashed a large glass door with a section of cinder block at the Republican Party headquarters in downtown Flagstaff.

A pile of shattered glass joined egg shells filling the entryway to the GOP offices, located on Humphreys Street across from Wheeler Park. Fliers with information criticizing President Bush were staked up outside the door.
[…]
Local GOP coordinator John Echols said he received at 7 a.m. phone call from an employee at Enterprise Rent-a-Car next door reporting the vandalism. Echols arrived to find the smashed door, but little else in the way of damage. Still, police are considerting the crime as a felony because cost to replace the door is expected to exceed $1,000.

“Thankfully, none of the office had been vandalized,” Echols said, but speculated that the vandals most likely intended to cause more damage. “I think they may have been spooked. We are on a major thoroughfare.”

For Echols, it’s nothing new. In 2002, someone threw a rock through a window at the Republican headquarters, then located at the Bashas’ plaza at the north end of Humprheys Street.

“I still have that rock from two years ago,” Echols said, pulling it out of the closest in his headquarters office.

Echols also reported that a number of Bush-Cheney supporters have had their signs torn down, and a few “have had swastikas painted on them.”

Officer David Holland, the responding officer, said that he logged several items into evidence for the investigation. Among those items were the cinder block, a “good” fingerprint card, signage stakes, beer bottles, a piece of paper with names on it, glass, a hubcap, and witness statements.

He also logged items of “anti-Bush literature,” he said.

Among the statements on the literature was, “We can’t get back the last four years. We can’t lose the next four.”

Orlando Sentinel Endorses John Kerry

The normally Republican Orlando Sentinel has endorsed John Kerry for President.

Four years ago, the Orlando Sentinel endorsed Republican George W. Bush for president based on our trust in him to unite America. We expected him to forge bipartisan solutions to problems while keeping this nation secure and fiscally sound.

This president has utterly failed to fulfill our expectations. We turn now to his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, with the belief that he is more likely to meet the hopes we once held for Mr. Bush.

Our choice was not dictated by partisanship. Already this election season, the Sentinel has endorsed Republican Mel Martinez for the U.S. Senate and four U.S. House Republicans. In 2002, we backed Republican Gov. Jeb Bush for re-election, repeating our endorsement of four years earlier. Indeed, it has been 40 years since the Sentinel endorsed a Democrat — Lyndon Johnson — for president.

Swift Vet Interview - O'Neill and O'Donnell

From MSNBC via the Daily Recycler comes a downloadable video clip of an interview (.wmf) that encapsulates the whole SwiftVet situation.

The SwiftVet’s Spokesman John O’Neill appears along with independant, mainstream media analyst Lawrence O’Donnell.

The complete audio files (in 2 parts) are available on the SwiftVets site.

Early Voting in Florida – Many Look for Flaws

Exclusive to the Command-Post.Org

Frank J. Derfler www.derfler.net

The early voting in Florida and other states is getting a lot of newspaper coverage. Of course, in the proud tradition of “If it bleeds, it leads!” the coverage is generally as negative as the reporters can reasonably make it. “Gee, it’s going really well here.” isn’t a lead that will make the editors happy.

The Sun-Sentinel has a story about people, primarily Republicans, being harassed during early voting.

While the Voter’s Bill of Rights in state law says they have a right to “vote free from coercion or intimidation by elections officers or any other person,” a glitch in the newer early voting law does not include the same 50-foot guarantee.

The New York Times has a story (registration required) about the people called “challengers” who are trained to question the credentials of voters at polling places and, in doing so, to disrupt the voting process.

The parties are also preparing to battle over voter qualifications in Florida, where they had until last Tuesday to register challengers. In Fort Myers, Republicans named 100 watchers for the county’s 171 precincts, up from 60 in 2000. But Democrats registered 300 watchers in the county, a sixfold increase.

USA Today has a story “Florida is focus of furor again” that doesn’t really show as much furor as the headline suggests:

In the first four days of early voting, 4,461 Duval residents cast ballots. Another 67,000 requested absentee ballots — twice the number four years ago. Some officials estimate that one-fourth of Florida’s votes could be cast early. Many here believe it’s safer. Says Marcia Winnard, a Bush supporter: “I’m a little paranoid about this election.”

Since I couldn’t go flying in my single-engine Piper on this beautiful Saturday because of the temporary flight restrictions caused by candidates hopping across the state, I set off by car to visit polling stations in Miami-Dade county to see if I could experience the coercion, intimidation, and turmoil.

The three Miami-Dade polling sites I visited were all in county libraries. At the first station, about 80 people were sitting on chairs at 11:30 AM, waiting for the polling place to open at Noon. More people were coming in, but the mood was patient. I chatted up some poll workers who told me the only problems they had since early voting started were health concerns over voters who climbed the stairs to the second floor of the library and then had to stand in line. They were happy that the county had brought in plenty of plastic stacking chairs.

The polls were open by the time I got to the second polling place. Again, it was evident that the early polling was a success. I didn’t see anyone campaigning inside or outside the library, although I did see one person outside wearing a yellow vest with “poll watcher” on the back. Inside, I did a quick head count and found about sixty voters coming, going, or patiently waiting. I talked to one worker inside who told me that the peaks during the week were during the lunch hour, after school, and after work. She said, “Lots of people come in with their kids after school and turn them loose in the children’s section of the library while they vote. It works out great.” The poll watcher in the vest was gone when I came back out. The third location was pretty much the same story. Good traffic, but no intimidation or coercion in evidence.

Of course, my survey isn’t scientific, exhaustive, or comprehensive. I’m sure that bad things happen and that tensions will rise as the days wind down. But, so far advance voting seems to be going pretty well here in the Sunshine State.

FBI Probes New Arrests And Leads In Possible Election Day Plot

Relying on an unidentified sources the Associated Press reports that new arrests and leads reinforce concerns that terrorists plan to strike around the presidential election.

A senior FBI official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said some of the leads were culled from interviews with thousands of individuals that agents have conducted in the Muslim community.

[. . .]

Several people have been taken into custody recently on charges not related to terrorism, but officials are investigating whether they may have been involved in terror activities, said another law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

From California Yankee.

Early Voting Turnout - Arkansas

Early voting in the state of Arkansas, which began on Moday, October 18, is being greeted with extremely heavy turnout. I visited the Washington County Clerk’s office earlier today to cast my own votes, and was able to spend a few minutes with County Clerk Karen Combs Pritchard.

Ms. Pritchard told me that the numbers of voters taking advantage of early voting had come as a welcome surprise to her office. Throughout the week, they have averaged over 900 voters per day. The turnout today was especially brisk. The office was only open for three hours and they processed more than 300 people in the first hour. I arrived approximately ten minutes before closing and they had exceeded 500 people. In all, they have served more than 5,000 voters this week. That’s just under 9% of the total population in the community they serve.

Other communities around the state are also experiencing heavy turnout, with Pulaski County (Little Rock) estimating more than 2,000 voters per day this week.

Nationally, The Day newspaper in New London, CT, is reporting more than 1.3 million early voters just in eight swing states, including around 10% of registered voters in Nevada and New Mexico.

More on the Arkansas turnout can be found here and here.

Al, Terry, And Colby

The Law Of The Flow: This Colby College blogger is live blogging from an event with Terry McAuliffe and Al Franken. He notes:

Franken has arrived but he didn’t dress up. Apparently old jeans, a T-shirt and a vest is an appropriate outfit.

Also I have never seen anyone look so upset about having to stand up for the national anthem.

developing…

Gender Gap Replaced by Marital Gap

New ABC News Poll finds that this year the electorate is divided more along marital lines than gender lines:

Men support George W. Bush over John Kerry by an eight-point margin in the latest ABC News tracking poll, while women are split between the candidates. In 2000 there was a bigger difference between the sexes: Bush +11 among men, Al Gore +11 among women.

[. . .]

Married voters — men and women — are strong Bush groups: Married women support him by 19 points, 56-37 percent, and married men by 22 points, 59-37 percent. Kerry, though, is favored by six in 10 single men and women alike.

From California Yankee.

UK Guardian Columnist calls for Direct Action

Not satisfied with the results of their “Politically Neutral” Operation Clark County, at least one Guardian Columnist has urged more direct action. From The Guardian :

Throughout the debate, John Kerry, for his part, looks and sounds a bit like a haunted tree. But at least he’s not a lying, sniggering, drink-driving, selfish, reckless, ignorant, dangerous, backward, drooling, twitching, blinking, mouse-faced little cheat. And besides, in a fight between a tree and a bush, I know who I’d favour.

On November 2, the entire civilised world will be praying, praying Bush loses. And Sod’s law dictates he’ll probably win, thereby disproving the existence of God once and for all. The world will endure four more years of idiocy, arrogance and unwarranted bloodshed, with no benevolent deity to watch over and save us. John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr - where are you now that we need you?

Given the description of Bush, reasonable people would doubt he’s speaking rhetorically.

UPDATE: From The Guardian October 24:

The final sentence of a column in The Guide on Saturday caused offence to some readers. The Guardian associates itself with the following statement from the writer.

”Charlie Brooker apologises for any offence caused by his comments relating to President Bush in his TV column, Screen Burn. The views expressed in this column are not those of the Guardian. Although flippant and tasteless, his closing comments were intended as an ironic joke, not as a call to action - an intention he believed regular readers of his humorous column would understand. He deplores violence of any kind.”

Stolen Honor Available Free Online

From the Wall Street Journal :

Sinclair Broadcast Group’s decision this week not to air “Stolen Honor,” a documentary on John Kerry’s post-Vietnam antiwar activities, is being cheered by liberals as a victory for truth, honor and the Democratic Party.
[…]
Sinclair bent under enormous political pressure, but notably a kind we haven’t seen wielded before to silence the media.
[…]
The next step was something new: a double team by trial lawyers and government officials threatening shareholder suits. Out of the gate first was William Lerach, a Democratic funder who announced plans this week to sue Sinclair because by running the documentary it was creating controversy that cost it advertising revenue.
[…]
Media Matters, a liberal media agitprop outfit, announced it was underwriting another shareholder suit and demanded that Sinclair provide equal time to those with opposing views.
[…]
But the real kicker came when New York State’s Democratic Comptroller, Alan Hevesi, also decided to assail Sinclair. Mr. Hevesi wrote a letter to Sinclair in his capacity as trustee of the state pension fund, which owns 265,000 shares in the company.

”Some critics suggest that Sinclair management is more interested in advancing its partisan political views than in protecting shareholder value,” he writes. “They say Sinclair’s partisan agenda also risks alienating viewers, advertisers and regulators.” In other circumstances, this is known as an offer you can’t refuse: Pull the show or else.
[…]
Now that this trial lawyer-government precedent has been set, who’s to stop it if it next turns, as eventually it will, on the New York Times, or CBS? One of the most important protections that a free press has is independent corporate ownership, but what if the Nixon Administration had unleashed its lawyer friends and government pension funds on the Times Company when it was publishing the Pentagon Papers, or the Washington Post when it was digging into Watergate? If the standard now is that stirring controversy is a fraud against shareholders because it may cost ad revenue, a lot more media owners than Sinclair are going to become political targets.

But if this first case is an example, their efforts will probably be in vain.

The complete video is now available free on the Internet. Not exactly wide-screen hi-res, but available nonetheless.

Hat Tip : Instapundit.

BRAAAAAAINS!

The LA Times wonders if John Kerry is too intelligent to be president of the United States.

On The Draft

The Star Tribune: “Trust that Bush won’t bring back the draft? Bad idea”

TIME Poll: Bush Leads 51%-46%

Via a TIME email. Among Likely Voters:

• 51% Support President Bush
• 46% Support Senator John Kerry
• 2% Support Ralph Nader
• Bush Approval Rating Up To 53%

See it online here.

Florida Kerry Supporters Bully And Intimidate Republican Voters

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports on Democratic bullying in Florida’s early voting:

One woman who voted early in Boca Raton, at the Southwest County Regional Library, complained that as she stood in line, two men behind her were “trashing our president,” Fletcher said, declining to identify the woman. She tried to ignore them. Then the man touched her arm and said, “Who are you voting for?”

“I said, `I don’t think that’s an appropriate question,’” the woman said she responded.

“Uh oh! We have a Bush supporter here,” screamed the man behind her.

For the 2 1/2 hours she had to wait in line, she was heckled by the man. As they neared the voting room, someone in the rear of the line yelled, “I sure hope everyone here is voting for Kerry!” she reported.

That’s when the man behind her held his hand over her head and screamed, “We have a Republican right here!” There were “boos and jeers” from the crowd.

“I felt intimidated, harassed and threatened!” the woman wrote in her complaint to the Republican Party.

From California Yankee.

Sinclair Aires “A POW Story: Politics, Pressure and the Media”

Sinclair Broadcast Group aired “A POW Story: Politics, Pressure and the Media” on 40 television stations around the country last night.

The Associated Press reports that the program contained a few minutes from the documentary, “Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal,” as well as excerpts from a pro-Kerry documentary, interviews with veterans who support and oppose Kerry, and a segment on the impact of new media such as the Internet on politics.

A history of the controversy that erupted following reports of the upcoming program was also given, including assessments such as “before anything had been decided, spin alley had become a superhighway.”

Kerry did not appear in the program, but comments he made on the issue on the campaign trail were presented.

"Bush Backs Temporary Cards for Immigrants"

In the interview (Spanish-language version here), Bush also mentions that this would take the pressure off our borders and would allow these workers to send their money back to their home countries (a.k.a. “remittances”).

In January at a Cato Institute conference, Margaret Spellings, assistant to the president for domestic policy, discussed Bush’s guest worker plan:

In an interview last month, Homeland Security Undersecretary Asa Hutchinson (the “border czar”) said the following:

The details of how the administration would deal with guest workers who have overstayed the term of their work permit - especially those who have had U.S. citizen children - has not been disclosed.

See also Analysis: Bush temp worker plan open-ended:

Whether Bush’s plan meets the formal definition of amnesty or not, many do perceive it as an amnesty. Internal Border Patrol memos say that many are prepared to come to the U.S. to take advantage of any program that is perceived as amnesty: “Border Agents Warn of Influx”.

Regarding remittances:

Other countries receive an even greater share. Remittances represent about 29% of El Salvador’s GDP. Some, such as Dan Griswold at the Cato conference, say that remittances are good and a replacement for foreign aid. As pointed out here and here, others say they create an unhealthy dependency and have other negative impacts. Some say that one half of the residents of the Mexican state of Zacatecas reside in the U.S. That’s caused internal migration as Indians from southern Mexico move into that state to do the work previously done by Zacatecans: “Mexico’s other migrant wave”

See also “The Big Show on the Border” and regarding the general topic of guest worker plans, see “The Mirage of Mexican Guest Workers”, “Guest worker program offers lessons: Bush might profit by German experience”, and “Unemployed in the U.S.: Guestworker amnesty not wanted, not needed”

Ad Uses Wolf Image To Attack Kerry

The Associated Press reports that a new TV ad using imagery of prowling wolves, suggests that under Kerry the country would be vulnerable to terrorists because “weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm:”

Reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s Soviet “Bear” ad that was credited with helping frame the 1984 race, the commercial shows a dense forest from above. Scurrying is heard as the camera plunges deeper into the woods and pans sunlight-speckled trees. Shadows move through the brush before animals are seen amid the forest.

Then, the ad reveals the type of animal: A pack of wolves rest on a hill. As the commercial closes, the predators stir, moving toward the camera.

“In an increasingly dangerous world, even after the first terrorist attack on America, John Kerry and the liberals in Congress voted to slash America’s intelligence budget by $6 billion,” an ominous voice says in the ad. “Cuts so deep they would have weakened America’s defenses. And weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm.”

From California Yankee.

Nader Loses Bid To Get On Ohio Ballot

AP: Nader Loses Bid To Get On Ohio Ballot

The Ohio Supreme Court has rejected independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader’s bid to get on the Ohio ballot.

Nader wanted the court to force local election boards to review their voter registration lists, a process Nader said could have led to the validation of petitions to place him on the ballot.

The court ruled 6-1 against Nader Friday, saying his campaign waited too long to raise its concerns.

Early Voting Problems for GOP in Florida?

Michael Graham:

I just got off the phone with a friend of mine who travelled down to Florida to work for the GOP at the polls. He’s monitoring the early voting in southern Florida and he says it’s a zoo. There’s very little Republican presence monitoring the voting, while Democrats are out in force at the early voting stations. He reports that Democratic thugs are blocking parking access for clearly Republican voters, and there has been at least one incident involving a shotgun. My friend, who’s got quite a bit of campaign experience and grew up in Florida, sounded dejected about the GOPs efforts thus far.

“The Democrats own this early voting,” he told me. Where is the Florida GOP?

Cross-posted:
Backcountry Conservative
Our Life

A debate on a draft

In a contentious debate on today’s PBS NewsHour, two retired generals squared off on the possibility of a draft. The segment was too short to arrive at much of a conclusion, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

Complete transcript here.

The Toast is Back in Town

With less than two weeks to go, PoliBlog’s Toast-O-Meter returns.

New York Times Review Of "Stolen Honor" - It Should Be Shown Everywhere

The New York Times review of “Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal” states that the documentary should be shown in its entirety on all the networks, cable stations and on public television.

From California Yankee.

Christopher Reeve's Widow Endorses Kerry

AP: Christopher Reeve’s Widow Endorses Kerry

Sen. John Kerry on Thursday accused President Bush of slowing scientific advancement after earning a special endorsement from the widow of Senator actor Paul Wellstone’s Christopher Reeve, a proponent of the embryonic stem cell research on which the president has placed limits.

“The American people deserve a president who understands that when America invests in science and technology, we can build a stronger economy and create jobs for the 21st century,” Kerry said during a campaign rally. “But George Bush has literally … turned his back on the spirit of exploration and discovery.”

Wellstone’s Reeve’s widow, Dana, said her family has been grieving privately since her husband died Oct. 10. “My inclination would be to remain private for a good long while,” she said. “But I came here today in support of John Kerry because this is so important. This is what Paul Chris wanted.”

(Okay, okay… unfair… Paul Wellstone’s wife died in the plane crash with him, leaving his son and Ted Kennedy to use his coffin as a pulpit to thump while campaigning.)

Kerry Campaign Invents New Media Trick

And a clever and cheap trick too, which will save them money. From the Washington Post :

John F. Kerry’s strategists pride themselves on the sheer speed of their advertising effort as they churn out one response after another to President Bush’s attack spots.

Now it turns out that some of the Kerry commercials are being written, edited, produced and put on satellites for the purpose of generating news articles. They have not actually aired on any network or local station — except in reports about the Democrat’s campaign.

Since Sept. 1, the Kerry camp has released and publicized more than half a dozen commercials, on subjects ranging from taxes to health care to the war in Iraq, without buying time for them, either nationally or in battleground states. Others have run in only one or two markets after being unveiled with considerable fanfare. In effect, these have been video news releases purporting to be substantial paid advertising.

“We’re certainly not trying to be disingenuous,” Tad Devine, a senior Kerry adviser, said yesterday. “We’ve announced that we’ve created these and are prepared to use them at a time and place of our choosing.” He said the Kerry team had to be able to show Bush’s campaign “that the gun is loaded on this side, too.”

Evan Tracey, an analyst at TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising, called the phantom ads — which have routinely been covered by The Washington Post and other news organizations — “political product placement. But they’re getting away with it, because the press is playing them. When the press covers a new Bush ad, the story always adds ‘and Kerry released an ad of his own.’ He’s getting into the news chatter.”

Mark McKinnon, Bush’s media adviser, said the president’s campaign has never announced an ad that has not run.

Heinz Kerry Separates Self From Mrs. Bush

(Via CQ)

AP: Heinz Kerry Separates Self From Mrs. Bush

“Well, you know, I don’t know Laura Bush. But she seems to be calm, and she has a sparkle in her eye, which is good,” Heinz Kerry said. “But I don’t know that she’s ever had a real job - I mean, since she’s been grown up. So her experience and her validation comes from important things, but different things.”

Let’s ask Merriam-Webster Online:

teacher
Pronunciation: ‘tE-ch&r
Function: noun
1 : one that teaches; especially : one whose occupation is to instruct

librarian
Pronunciation: lI-‘brer-E-&n
Function: noun
: a specialist in the care or management of a library

As opposed to:

heiress
Pronunciation: ‘ar-&s, ‘er-
Function: noun
: a female heir; especially : a female heir to great wealth

UPDATE:
Heinz-Kerry has apologized for her comments, saying that raising children is a real job.

She should know, considering how much she paid to have her own kids raised by others.

Big Money Floods Florida With Political Ads

Big Money Floods Florida With Political Ads

by Frank Derfler www.derfler.biz

This week Florida voters exist in a spray of political ads as thick as the humidity in summer. But only about half of the drippy ads come from federal candidates. A large portion of the ads in the steady stream come from a couple of proposed amendments to the state constitution that involve the interests and money of casinos and that pit doctors against malpractice lawyers. The advertising on all sides of these issues is spun so tightly that the spin itself becomes an issue. Ad-burn out, voter fatigue, and inaccurate voter polls are the results.
Florida’s Constitution allows voters to create amendments with a simple majority vote. Proposed amendments can get onto the ballot with slightly under 500,000 signatures. One argument is that this arrangement gives a path around a corrupt or stagnant legislature. Another argument is that it makes it too easy for special interests to pass smelly issues under the noses of the voters without them getting a whiff.
In 2002 the voters of the state amended the constitution to prohibit penning pregnant pigs. In the end, the amendment did discourage the high-density swine factories that the animal-rights people targeted, but many argue that there were better ways to reach that goal than a constitutional amendment.
A few years ago the voters amended the Constitution to order the creation of a light rail system that would more or less parallel the over-crowded and often stalled Interstate 4 linking Tampa, Orlando’s attractions, and the east coast of the state. The politicians, bureaucrats, and special interests never worked together to meet the deadline imposed by the amendment. The 2004 state ballot carries a proposed amendment, sponsored by a group called Derail the Bullet Train (DEBT), that would cancel the previous amendment.
But the big fights in Florida this election year are over gambling and law suits for medical malpractice – although if you just watch the TV ads you’d never know it. Gambling interests have had their eyes on Florida for decades. Most of the previous attempts to somehow legalize gambling argued that gambling means lower taxes. This year, the pro-gambling interests adopted the cap and gown of education. The proposed constitutional amendment would authorize a referendum on slot machines in Miami-Dade and Broward counties –far away from the constriction of the North Florida Bible Belt. The proposal says that slot machine taxes would supplement spending on education. So, the ads supporting this proposed amendment show happy teachers and happy students engaging in happy education. Ads in opposition show slot machines popping up on beaches, driving away tourists who support family values. There’s no discussion of proposed revenue or social pros and cons.
Medical interests are attacking legal interests over malpractice attorney’s fees in a proposed amendment that would, in essence, limit an attorney’s portion of any large medical malpractice award to about $150,000. Attorneys I have talked to already have strategies for working around this cap, but it will still hurt them on the bottom line. Both sides have pulled out the stops on ads using deformed bodies and depressing stories. One ad in favor of the amendment shows a woman in a wheel chair (later revealed by the opposition as an actor) complaining that her attorney took all of her jury-awarded money. The same side took the actor-gaff in stride and put out new ads using people who proclaim, “I am not an actor” and voice more complaints against lawyers. The lawyers arguing against the amendment swamp the emotions with ads featuring grieving families and people with damaged bodies who argue that they would not receive fair treatment under the law if the limitation passes.
The deluge of political advertising in Florida is teaching viewers to use the mute button on their remotes that they never knew existed. No one at my barbershop, coffee shop, or fishing pier wants to discuss politics anymore. The fire hose stream has numbed even people who had high political interest. My personal opinion is that you shouldn’t put a lot of faith in polls of voter intentions you see from Florida. The volume of political advertising is changing the impact of that advertising. It is very difficult to extract fish from a raging river.

John Zogby on Polling

Blogger Simon of Simon World attended a lecture given by pollster John Zogby recently in Hong Kong. Topics covered -

- The 4 million Christian Conservatives.
- “The Armageddon Election”
- Differences between red and blue states and the key predictor of voting intention
- The missing centre of American politics
- Mistakes in the Kerry and Bush campaigns
- The Nader impact
- The impact of blogs and the internet on elections and politics.

Interesting stuff. Simon’s account of Mr. Zogby’s thoughts on these subjects may be found here.

Progress for America To Spend $14 Million Airing "Ashley's Story"

USA Today reports that Progress for America Voter Fund will spend $14 million to run an ad about 16-year-old Ashley Faulkner’s encounter with President Bush.

From California Yankee.

Democrats seek "Sex and the City" Women

Agence France Presse reports Democrat strategists are trying to get “Sex and the City” women to vote for Kerry.

The “Sex and the City” women are single women from 18 to 88 who did not vote in 2000. The group includes whites, Afro-Americans, Latinos and numbers about 22 million.

From California Yankee.

Franks Denies Hunt For Bin Laden Was "Outsourced"

Agence France-Presse reports that Retied General Tommy Franks, the former commander of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, has denied Kerry’s claim that we “outsourced” the hunt for Osama bin Laden in Tora Bora:

“As commander of the allied forces in the Middle East, I was responsible for the operation at Tora Bora and I can tell you that the senator’s understanding of events doesn’t square with reality,” retired general Tommy Franks wrote in The New York Times.

[. . .]

According to Franks, the US military relied heavily on Afghan forces in that battle because they knew Tora Bora after fighting there for years against the Soviet occupation.

“Third, the Afghans weren’t left to do the job alone,” the retired general continued. “Special forces from the United States and several other countries were there, providing tactical leadership and calling in air strikes.”

From California Yankee.

Tampa Tribune Endorses No One for President

Tampa Tribune - “Why We Cannot Endorse President Bush for Re-election”

We find ourselves in a position unimaginable four years ago when we strongly endorsed for president a fiscal conservative and “moderate man of mainstream convictions” who promised to wield military muscle only as a last resort and to resist the lure of “nation building.” We find ourselves deeply conflicted today about the presidential race, skeptical of the promises and positions of Sen. John Kerry and disappointed by the performance of President George W. Bush.

As stewards of the Tribune’s editorial voice, we find it unimaginable to not be lending our voice to the chorus of conservative-leaning newspapers endorsing the president’s re-election. We had fully expected to stand with Bush, whom we endorsed in 2000 because his politics generally reflected ours: a strong military, fiscal conservatism, personal responsibility and small government. We knew him to be a popular governor of Texas who fought for lower taxes, less government and a pro-business constitution.

But we are unable to endorse President Bush for re-election because of his mishandling of the war in Iraq, his record deficit spending, his assault on open government and his failed promise to be a “uniter not a divider” within the United States and the world.

Neither can we endorse Sen. Kerry, whose undistinguished Senate record stands at odds with our conservative principles and whose positions on the Iraq war - the central issue in this campaign - have been difficult to distinguish or differentiate.

It is an achingly difficult decision to not endorse a candidate in the presidential contest, and we do not reach this decision lightly.

Early Voting Impacts Florida Elections - But How?

Early Voting Impacts Florida Elections –But How?

By Frank Derfler see www.derfler.net

“Vote early, vote often” is an old joke. But voting early is the real thing in Florida this year. One or more polling places opened fifteen days before the election in each of the 67 Florida counties. They’re open at least 8 hours a day every weekday and a total of 8 hours over the weekend. Early voting is the lead topic on drive-time news and talk radio shows and it rates coverage on every local version of the “Six O’Clock News”.

The first day of early voting was a real mix. Polling places in less populated counties, like those I visited in Monroe County, were happy places with 5-10 people per hour moving through the process. Reports from Miami-Dade County in the Miami Herald tell of new voter verification systems failing under the press of voters on the first day.

Early voting in Florida is receiving a lot of attention from the major political parties. The Democratic and Republican presidential candidates jetted across the state urging everyone to vote. Television shows in the Miami market can hardly develop a story line between back-to-back political ads. The presence of controversial amendments to the state constitution on gambling and attorney fees makes things even more strident.

Since only a smaller than usual number of polling places are open for early voting in each county, the placement of the open polling places is controversial. If an open polling place is in a neighborhood likely to be firmly Democratic or firmly Republican, there are complaints. Governor Jeb Bush attacked the placement and quantity of polling places in the county containing the city of Jacksonville. One polling place in the city center is supposed to service the entire county.

You can find any theory you want about the impact of early polling. Some pundits say that a longer polling period makes it easier for people who punch time clocks (presumably Democrats) to vote. Others say that it makes it easier for older veterans and their wives to navigate the traffic in order to cast their anti-Kerry votes. Some hope that the longer polling period will serve as a “break in” time for the several types of new polling devices purchased to replace controversial “hanging chad” paper ballots. Finally, how about the thousands of Floridians who were dislocated by the Hurricanes? Will the longer polling period make it easier for the dislocated to vote? Do they care?

One complete unknown is the impact of early voting on polling. If people vote early, do they tune out the rhetoric, lead more peaceful lives, and reduce the validity and projectability of breathless minute-by-minute voter polls?

How about the impact of some major event between now and November 2? What if Osama is found hiding in a Baghdad basement surrounded by a cache of Sadaam’s chemical weapons? What if any candidate says or does something stupid? Should voters wait until the last moment in order to make the best-informed decision? Will an important event happening in the two weeks before the election have less impact on the outcome of the election because people already voted?

There are legions of factions and lawyers who want to use early voting to sway the results one way or another. The Congressional Black Caucus was in Miami and civic leaders led a march demanding that their votes count. A lawsuit is challenging the validity of touch screen voting machines because they don’t produce an adequate paper trail. And all of this is two weeks before the real polling day. One sure prediction is that things will be hot in Florida for the next few weeks.

Controversial Foreign Leaders Back Kerry

The first one’s actually a former leader best known for his controversial speeches :

…today the Jews rule this world by proxy. They get others to fight and die for them,” Mahathir said, adding, “1.3 billion Muslims cannot be defeated by a few million Jews.”

From the Daily Times (Pakistan) :

Former Malaysian leader Mahathir Mohammad has appealed to American Muslims not to vote for George Bush on November 2.

In an open letter sent to the community, believed to number seven million, the former prime minister said during the past four years of the Bush presidency, the Muslims and their countries had suffered oppression and humiliation as never before in the history of Islam.

“There is an obvious connection between the sufferings of the Muslims and the policies and thinking of Bush. We cannot expect much change to the policies of the United States of America towards Islam and the Muslims under Democrats as under Republicans. But we have a duty to ensure that Bush will not be able to determine our fate for four more years,” he said.

Kerry, the Malaysian leader conceded, may not be any different, but the candidates for the presidency of the United States must be made aware that in democratic America, Muslim citizens have a voice and can influence the selection of the rulers of the country. “Bush has shown that despite his protests, he is the cause of the tragedies in Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq.”

The second endorsement comes from Yasser Arafat. From WorldNetDaily :

Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat is hoping John Kerry wins the presidential election in November, several Palestinian leaders told WorldNetDaily.

Arafat deputy and chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat told WND in an exclusive interview that while “we do not involve ourselves in internal American politics,” at the same time “our region has been sliding deeper and deeper into chaos because of certain policies over the past few years, and this needs to change.”

While he would not directly endorse Kerry, it was clear Erekat was implying the PA wants a change in White House leadership: “If things continue the way they are, if certain policies toward our region are maintained in the years to come, there is going to be a lot of violence on both sides.”

A prominent Arafat aide who asked that his name be withheld spoke to WorldNetDaily from Arafat’s battered Ramallah compound.

“The president [Arafat] is frustrated with Bush’s policies,” he said. “The president [Arafat] thinks Kerry will be much better for the Palestinian cause and for the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

Putin urges voters to back Bush

CNN: Putin urges voters to back Bush

Russian President Vladimir Putin says terrorist attacks in Iraq are aimed at preventing the re-election of U.S. President George W. Bush and that a Bush defeat “could lead to the spread of terrorism to other parts of the world.”

Putin, speaking Central Asian Cooperation Organization summit in Tajikistan Monday, made his most overt comments of support so far for the re-election of Bush for a second term.

“Any unbiased observer understands that attacks of international terrorist organizations in Iraq, especially nowadays, are targeted not only and not so much against the international coalition as against President Bush,” Putin said.

“International terrorists have set as their goal inflicting the maximum damage to Bush, to prevent his election to a second term.

“If they succeed in doing that, they will celebrate a victory over America and over the entire anti-terror coalition,” Putin said.

Reuters Tracking Poll: Bush, Kerry Tied

Reuters reports that the latest Reuters/Zogby International Tracking Poll showed President Bush and Kerry tied at 45 percent apiece.

From Calofornia Yankee.

Democrats Concerned About Kerry's Comments About Cheney's Daughter

The New York Times reports that Democrats, and even the Kerry Campaign, are now concerned over Kerry’s remark about Cheney’s daughter during the last presidential debate:

Amid signs of Democratic concern, Mr. Kerry’s advisers acknowledged Sunday that some voters perceived Mr. Kerry’s remark as an invasion of Ms. Cheney’s privacy, a gratuitous personal insult, or a crass political calculation by which Mr. Kerry was trying to drive a wedge between Mr. Cheney and conservatives unaware that his daughter was gay.

From California Yankee.

Computer Problems in Early Florida Voting

Problems were being reported at nine of 14 early voting sites in Broward County on Monday morning.

Gisela Salas, of the Broward Elections Office, said workers were having problems with a live database connection that is used to verify that a voter is properly registered.

The sites, Salas said, that were unaffected were at satellite offices in Deerfield Beach, Hollywood, Lauderhill, Pembroke Pines and Plantation.

All the branch offices were reported having problems with the database connection. Many of the sites had voters lined up to cast their ballots.

Voters at several sites said poll workers told them the problems started 20 minutes to 30 minutes after the early polling stations opened at 8:30 a.m. The stations close at 6 p.m.

Read more…

Operation "Clark County" Update

There are very few opportunities for a good belly-laugh in this presidential campaign. From an Australian viewpoint, the issue’s far too important to take too seriously though. So, updating a previous post, here is the latest from the Guardian in the UK.

You can guess the general tenor of the US reponse by the Guardian’s Title:

Dear Limey assholes

Although a minority are shrill, incoherent and vituperative, the vast majority are genuinely hilarious and witty (and even more vituperative).

High Court Orders Review of Texas Seats in Congress

From the AP via the New York Times:

The Supreme Court handed Democrats a victory Monday, ordering a lower court to reconsider a Texas redistricting plan that could give Republicans six more seats and a firmer hold on their majority in the House.

The decision won’t affect next month’s elections, though any GOP gains on Nov. 2 could be wiped out later if the plan ultimately is deemed unconstitutional.

States must redraw boundaries every 10 years to reflect population shifts found during the census. Five appeals over the Texas boundary-drawing pose an interesting question: Can political leaders of a Legislature force district drawing more frequently than once a decade, to make more seats winnable for members of their party?

The case has been exceedingly contentious. Democratic legislators twice staged walkouts from the Texas Legislature to protest district-drawing that benefited Republican candidates.

And House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, was admonished recently by the House ethics committee for getting too involved.

In a brief order, justices threw out a victory for Texas Republican legislators, and ordered a three-judge federal panel in Texas to reconsider the issue.

Let the Voting Begin!

Election Day is still two weeks away, but voters across [Florida] have the option Monday of beginning to cast their ballots early in this pivotal battleground state.

Early voting also occurs Monday in Texas, Colorado and Arkansas. Other key states this year have already begun in-person voting, including Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Early voting, early chaos:

Two days after the first batch of absentee ballots was mailed and four days before early voting is to begin, elections offices were swamped. Phone lines were jammed. Voters were stuck on hold, waiting as elections workers scrambled to answer questions.

Late in the day, workers from various campaigns sat in their cars outside the Palm Beach County elections office slapping labels on brochures before heading to a nearby post office in hopes campaign materials would hit voters’ mailboxes the same day their absentee ballots arrive.

“It’s a nightmare,” Elections Supervisor Theresa LePore said.

Palestinian Authority expresses support for Kerry

JERUSALEM POST: Palestinian Authority expresses support for Kerry

The Palestinian Authority made its first open statement Monday expressing support for US democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

PA Foreign Minister Nabil Sha’ath said that the future of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is unsure if George W. Bush is re-elected to office.

Fraternal Order of Police Clarify Presidential Endorsement

This statement cites quotes by Chuck Canterbury, the President of the nation’s largest police labor organization, The Fraternal Order of Police.

Today Chuck Canterbury, the President of the nation’s largest police labor organization, called on John Kerry to stop making misleading statements regarding his support from the law enforcement community. Both on the campaign trail and in Wednesday night’s debate in Tempe, AZ, Senator Kerry has alluded that he has the support of the majority of these brave men and women.

“As the elected leader of the largest organization representing America’s Federal, State and local law enforcement officers, I believe it’s important to point out yet again that we do not support his candidacy for President,” Canterbury said. “And to be perfectly frank, the groups which do support him actually share the same membership rolls and, taken together, probably comprise less than one-quarter of our nation’s police officers.”

Canterbury further noted that unlike the organizations which Senator Kerry touts, F.O.P. members as a whole decided that the Fraternal Order of Police would endorse the reelection of President George W. Bush. They based their decision, he said, on the record of the Bush Administration in supporting America’s first responders-including helping to secure passage earlier this year of H.R. 218, the Law Enforcement Officers Safety Act, the organization’s top legislative priority. Bush also successfully fought to greatly enhance the benefits for the families of officers killed in the line of duty.

Kerry - Illegal ballot collection in Florida?

Early news from Drudge:

As early voting begins Monday in the sunburn State of Florida controversy has already developed around a Democratic National Committee/Kerry-Edwards election manual.

The election manual titled — “FLORIDA VICTORY 2004” -obtained by the DRUDGE REPORT, advocates an apparent unlawful “BALLOT PICKUP” drive by campaign volunteers.

The DNC Kerry/Edwards manual states:

“In Florida, it is legal to handle ballots. This means it is possible for the campaign to canvass base neighborhoods, pick up completed ballots and deliver them to Early Vote locations. We will incorporate these deliveries into our Early Vote canvassing program.”

But Florida State election law is in sharp contrast and conflicts with the Dem plan.

“A designee may pick up an absentee ballot for a voter on election day or 4 days before election day. A designee may only pick up two absentee ballots per election, other than his or her own ballot or ballots for members of his or her immediate family. Designees must have written authorization from the voter, present a picture I.D. and sign an affidavit. Candidates may pick up absentee ballots only for members of their immediate family.”

Gallup Tracking: Bush Opens 8 Point Lead

This is the Gallup/USATODAY/CNN poll: Bush 52, Kerry 44, Nader 1. Read the details at USATODAY.

Who The Papers Endorsed In 2000

For a walk down memory lane, and the purposes of comparison, WheretodoResearch.com offers a listing of 2000 endorsements by major papers.

And FYI, the Chicago Tribune endrosed Bush then, too.

Hat tip to reader GG for the link …

Florida Papers Endorse Kerry

South Florida Sun-Sentinel - “President Bush has failed the test of leadership. The South Florida Sun-Sentinel Editorial Board recommends voters on Nov. 2 replace him with John Kerry.”

Miami Herald - “On the basis of experience, a strong campaign and command of the issues that make this such a crucial election, The Herald recommends JOHN F. KERRY.”

St. Petersburg Times - “President Bush hasn’t lived up to his promise to be a uniter at home and in world affairs, and he shows no evidence of having recognized, much less learned from, the mistakes that have left this country less united and less secure. John Kerry isn’t a perfect candidate. No one is. But he is an intelligent, principled leader who has demonstrated his commitment to his country on the battlefield and in public service. The Times recommends Kerry as the candidate best equipped to fulfill the promises George W. Bush made four years ago and failed to keep.”

Palm Beach Post - “There are many reasons to declare George W. Bush a failed president. We frame the election in terms of why people should vote for Sen. John Kerry.”

Daytona News-Journal - “America’s prosperity doesn’t entirely depend on a great president. America’s future does. John Kerry’s distinguished service has prepared him to be the leader this country needs. The world, as much as America, would benefit by his intelligence, integrity, courage and compassion in the Oval Office. It especially needs his perceptive restraint.”

Bradenton Herald - “It comes down to this simple question famously asked by Ronald Reagan in 1980: Are you better off today than you were four years ago? The answer, clearly, is no. Ultimately, that is why we recommend John Kerry as president of the United States in the Nov. 2 election.”

Florida Today - “America needs new leadership, and John Kerry can bring it to the White House.”

More Papers For Kerry

From the AFP ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) :

The New York Times endorsed John Kerry for president Sunday, becoming the first major US daily to announce its presidential preference, and was joined by small papers in the swing states of Ohio and Minnesota in backing the Democratic senator.
[…]
The Times’ backing is one of the most coveted and influential of any endorsement during the US presidential campaign, although given the newspaper’s somewhat left-of-centre tendency, not entirely unexpected.
[…]
The Dayton Daily News of Dayton, Ohio, the Star-Tribune of Minneapolis, Minnesota and the Boston Globe joined the Times in backing Mr Kerry Sunday.

Quelle Surprise

Chicago Tribune Endoreses President Bush

This year, each of us has the privilege of choosing between two major-party candidates whose integrity, intentions and abilities are exemplary.

One of those candidates, Sen. John Kerry, embraces an ongoing struggle against murderous terrorists, although with limited U.S. entanglements overseas. The other candidate, President George W. Bush, talks more freely about what is at risk for this country: the cold-eyed possibility that fresh attacks no better coordinated than those of Sept. 11—but with far deadlier weapons—could ravage American metropolises. Bush, then, embraces a bolder struggle not only with those who sow terror, but also with rogue governments that harbor, finance or arm them.

Read more…

New York Times Endorses Kerry

In a two page anti-Bush screed, the NYT pulls no punches in their not suprising endorsement of John F. Kerry.

We have been impressed with Mr. Kerry’s wide knowledge and clear thinking - something that became more apparent once he was reined in by that two-minute debate light. He is blessedly willing to re-evaluate decisions when conditions change. And while Mr. Kerry’s service in Vietnam was first over-promoted and then over-pilloried, his entire life has been devoted to public service, from the war to a series of elected offices. He strikes us, above all, as a man with a strong moral core.

[….]

There is no denying that this race is mainly about Mr. Bush’s disastrous tenure. Nearly four years ago, after the Supreme Court awarded him the presidency, Mr. Bush came into office amid popular expectation that he would acknowledge his lack of a mandate by sticking close to the center. Instead, he turned the government over to the radical right.

Read more…

Nitpick : VC Debunk Parts of Medal Citation : ABC Fact-Checked

This is only a minor nit-pick to set the record straight, but for what it’s worth, here it is.

The citation for John Kerry’s Silver Star is still available in pdf at his website. It reads:

The extraordinary daring and personal courage of Lieutenant (junior grade) Kerry in attacking a numerically superior force…

According to this previous post on Kerry’s citation for his Silver Star (with or without ‘V’), :

7 Confirmed enemy *(though probably at least triple that) vs 94 troops and the crews of the Swift Boats is ‘Overwhelming odds’ alright, but not in the way Kerry’s citation claims.

Now from ABC, there is confirmation from Vietnamese participants that the number of VC was 20, as we at TCP deduced :

According to Vo, there were at least 20 Viet Cong soldiers at Nha Vi there that day. “There were 12 soldiers from the provincial level and eight from the district level,” he said.

Of course, after 35 years, memory is at best unreliable.

Oh yes - the ABC report also stated that the Vietnamese had been interviewed before.

Back in Tran Thoi, villager Nguyen Van Khoai said that about six months ago he was visited by an American who described himself as a Swift boat veteran and told him another American from the Swift boats was running for president of the United States. Nguyen said the man was accompanied by a cameraman.

“They say he didn’t do anything to deserve the medal,” Nguyen said. “The other day, they came and asked me the questions and I said that the recognition for the medal is up to the U.S.A.”

He said that, after they met, the Swift Boat veteran and the cameraman turned around and went back down the river. “Nightline” has not been able to identify the men.

The interviewers have since been identified. The ABC could have done this with a little Googling but as it didn’t fit their storyline, it was left to bloggers. From the Washington Monthly :

First, there’s a dispatch from AP reporter Margie Mason, who took a trip up the Bay Hap river in August. Apparently she interviewed the same guy:

”I think it’s American politics,” said Nguyen Van Khoai, 61, a former Viet Cong who fought American troops in the area but never attacked the Swift boats. “On any side, a soldier who made an outstanding feat is given a medal, but maybe some people try to think otherwise.”

Second, a few minutes ago I spoke with a Vietnam vet named Doug Reese, who works with Vietnam’s official tourist agency and has visited the country frequently. In particular, Reese visited Tran Thoi in March and spoke with several villagers who were witnesses to the Silver Star incident. He identified himself as a journalist, not a Swift boat vet, and he didn’t have a cameraman with him, but he thinks it’s likely that Khoai confused his visit (March) with Mason’s visit (Swift boat related) to come up with the quote he gave Nightline. Reese is a Kerry supporter and no fan of SBVT, but even so, he says, “I’m confident the Swift boat guys didn’t go there.”

So, is the ABC deliberately omitting facts, or just incompetent? We report, you decide.

Finally, the John Kerry site has never claimed that there were more than 20 VC present. It’s only the suspect third version of Kerry’s citation that has the claim about being a “numerically superior force”.

As John Kerry has never signed a form 180 to expose his records to outside scrutiny, that’s all we can say at this point.

Reuters Poll: Bush Keeps Four-Point Lead

Reuters reports that President Bush’s lead over Democratic Sen. John Kerry held steady at four points for the second consecutive day, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday:

Bush 48%
Kerry 44%

The poll was conducted October 13-15 and has an margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

From California Yankee.

Bush Leads by 6 % In New Newsweek Poll

MSNBC reports that according to the NEWSWEEK poll, taken after Wednesday’s final debate in Arizona, President Bush has a 6 percent lead among likely voters.

Likely Voters
Bush 50%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%

The poll was conducted October 14-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

From California Yankee.

Thousands Rally On The Mall To Protest Same-Sex Marriage

The Washington Post reports that thousands of people gathered on the Mall yesterday to defend traditional marriage:

The event was part of an effort by Christian evangelical leaders and lobbying groups to mobilize religious conservatives as the presidential election nears. Dozens of such efforts are scheduled to take place across the country in the coming weeks.

[. . .]

The crowd, which included couples and families with young children, stretched from Seventh Street NW to the merry-go-round in front of the Smithsonian Castle, a distance of about three blocks.

Daryl Bursch, an official with “Mayday for Marriage,” estimated attendance between 140,000 and 170,000. U.S. Park Police no longer provides estimates of Mall gatherings.

From California Yankee.

Foreign Newspaper Attempts to Influence US Elections

From The Guardian :

The Guardian’s campaign to target undecided voters in a key swing state in the US presidential elections has attracted more than 10,000 responses, as well earning the ire of the conservative media.

By 6pm yesterday, 11,658 people had contacted the newspaper from around the world, after it encouraged readers in Britain to write with their thoughts on the election to voters in Clark county, Ohio. In the 2000 election, George Bush lost the county by 1% - equivalent to 324 votes.

The Guardian promised to give emailers the names and addresses of unaffiliated voters, from a list purchased from electoral officials. In its launch article on Thursday, it urged: “Remember that it’s unusual to receive a lobbying letter from someone in another country.”

The paper will match voters with only one reader. No voter should get more than one letter.

Most of the requests for addresses came from Britain, but some arrived from elsewhere, including France, China, Brazil, Eritrea and the US.

Ian Katz, the Guardian’s features editor, said: “For millions of people around the world, this election will have far more of an impact on our lives than even elections in their own country, and this is a way for non-Americans to have some say.”

He said the article that launched the campaign was neutral: it provided contact details for the conservative Christian Coalition and the liberal National Association for the Advancement of Colored People. “But it is no secret we are a centre-left newspaper and that our readers are likely to be pro-Kerry.”

To gauge the neutrality of the campaign, some quotes from the example letters the Guardian has thoughtfully provided :

[1] While Bush was waging his father’s war at your expense, he was also ruining your country….Give us back the America we loved, and your friends will be waiting for you. And here in Britain, for as long as we have Tony Blair singing the same lies as George Bush, your nightmares will be ours.

[2] First of all, if you back Kerry, you will be voting against a savage militaristic foreign policy of pre-emptive killing which has stained the great name of the US so hideously in recent times. A policy that Bush and his gang are set to continue - if they get the opportunity.

[3] Before 9/11 gave him his big break - the neo-cons’ Pearl Harbor - Bush was written off as an amiable idiot, certain to serve only one term. An idiot he may be, but he is also sly, mendacious and vindictive; and the thuggish ideologues who surround him are dangerous.

TCP readers can provide feedback to the Guardian’s editors and reporters about their audacious idea. In accordance with the Guardian’s example, we ask you to remain courteous and respectful, and please, only send one message.

See also Operation Guardian, courtesy of Tim Blair.

Kerry Surprised By Reaction To Comment About Cheney's Daughter

The Des Moines Register reports that Kerry said Thursday he was surprised by Vice President Cheney’s reaction to remarks Kerry made about Cheney’s daughter during the last Presidential debate:

I’m surprised by the reaction.

[. . .]

Kerry said he didn’t regret the comments, but said he objected to his campaign manager’s comments afterward that Cheney’s daughter was “fair game.”

From California Yankee.

Kerry: Potential Great for Return Of Draft

Kerry, in an interview The Des Moines Register published Friday:

There is “a great potential” for a military draft in the United States should President Bush win re-election in November

From California Yankee.

AP Finds New Documents on Bush's Service

From The Australian :

Weeks after National Guard officials in Texas signed an oath swearing they had turned over all of US President George W. Bush’s military records, independent examiners have found more than two dozen pages of previously unreleased documents about Mr Bush.

The two retired army lawyers went through Texas files under an agreement between the Texas Guard and The Associated Press, which sued to gain access to the files.

The 31 pages of documents turned over to AP last night include orders for high-altitude training in 1972, less than three months before Mr Bush abruptly quit flying as a fighter pilot.

The discovery is the latest in a series of embarrassments for Pentagon and Texas National Guard officials who have repeatedly said they found and released all of Mr Bush’s Vietnam-era military files, only to belatedly discover more records.
[…]
A Texas National Guard spokesman defended the continuing discoveries, saying Guard officials didn’t find all of Mr Bush’s records because they are disorganised and in poor shape.

“These boxes are full of dirt and rat (excrement) and dead bugs. They have (…) been sitting in an uncontrolled climate,” said Lieutenant Colonel John Stanford. “It’s a tough task to go through archives that were not set up in a way that you could easily go through them.”

Two Texas officials had signed sworn affidavits insisting they had reviewed the files in those boxes and released copies of all that related to Mr Bush’s 1968-1973 Guard service, however.
[…]
The newly released documents shed no new light on the most controversial periods of Mr Bush’s guard tenure.

Texas Tech University law school professors Richard Rosen and Calvin Lewis, both former army lawyers, reviewed the boxes of files earlier this week under an agreement in the AP lawsuit. They found three other boxes with files from Mr Bush’s unit that previous searches did not turn up, Lt-Colonel Stanford said.

The newly released documents include a January 1972 order for Mr Bush to attend three days of “physiological training” at Laredo Air Force Base in Texas. His Texas payroll and attendance records, released earlier, show Mr Bush was credited for serving on active duty training for the three days involved.

That training came six weeks before Mr Bush began an unexplained string of flights on two-seat training jets and simulators. On April 12, 1972, Mr Bush took his last flight in the single-seat F-102A fighter.

Meanwhile, Senator Kerry refuses to authorise examination of his own controversial service records, which remains safely hidden from prying eyes.

And I doubt that the spokesman said “excrement” too.

Kerry : World Wants Bush Out

From the AFP via The Australian :

Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry today proclaimed that the world wants President George W. Bush out of the White House and the return of the US “they know and love”.

In a new swipe at Republican Bush’s muscular foreign policy, Mr Kerry renewed his pledge to return the US to the internationalism that marked its foreign policy for the second half of the 20th century.

“The world is waiting for the United States of America they know and love,” Mr Kerry told a late-night rally of at least 5000 supporters in the mid-western state of Wisconsin.

Mr Kerry saw Mr Bush pounce on his remark in the second presidential debate that US action abroad should satisfy a “global test” of legitimacy, and proclaim a “Kerry doctrine” of foreign states wielding control over US action abroad.

So today, he repeated the line he now inserts into every campaign appearance: “I will never cede the security of this country to any other nation or institution.”

“But you know the United States of America is most effective … when we have friends and allies by our side and we move with other nations.”

As an Australian, I agree. That’s why we’re already with the USA, as allies and friends, along with dozens of other nations. Sorry to interrupt, I’ll continue without injecting opinions.

Mr Kerry told the crowd, braving chilly temperatures and sleet, that their judgement on election day, November 2, would be watched around the globe.

”The world is waiting for what you are going to do. You don’t just get to chose the president of the United States, you get to decide the leader of the free world.”

Mr Kerry has accused Mr Bush of ruining long-term US alliances with his policy of pre-emptive strikes against potential threats to the US, and with his invasion of Iraq.

Global opinion polls show that Mr Bush’s policies have stirred global resentment and that much of the world would prefer Mr Kerry as the next US president.

A collaborative polling exercise involving 10 newspapers around the world, including The Sydney Morning Herald, showed hostility directed not only at the Bush administration but also at the image of the US.

The project, initiated by Canada’s Quebec-based La Presse newspaper, included France’s Le Monde, The Guardian of Britain, Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, Russia’s Moscow News, Mexico’s Reforma, Israel’s Haaretz and Spain’s El Pais.

They found that voters in eight out of the 10 countries - excluding Israel and Russia - want to see Kerry, the Democratic challenger, beat Mr Bush in the election.

Their findings, the product of identical polls taken in September, also suggested the Bush administration was facing isolation and hostility rarely seen among its closest allies.

An Isolation and Hostility not seen since…Ronald Reagan.

Most Condemn Kerry Debate Comment About Cheney's Daughter

ABC News reports that its latest tracking poll found that likely voters, by 2-1, call it inappropriate for Kerry to have noted that Vice President Dick Cheney’s daughter is a lesbian.

From California Yankee.

Election Fraud & Intimidation Round-Up: Oct 15/04

Some of our readers at Winds of Change.NET have been asking for more information about voter fraud and intimidation in the USA. I‘m going to include a round-up incidents from both sides here, and John Fund will step in at the end with a look at the broader problem.

Read this in-depth roundup of links and incidents, and you’ll see why I’m becoming concerned:

• Bill Hobbs has a whole archive devoted to voter fraud reports. His tenacity on this issue this election is a public service.

• Which may explain the situation in Milwaukee. Kos is indignant, but the article he links notes that the city requested 938,000 ballots from the county - who had “serious questions” about the need for that many ballots when the city reported having 382,000 registered voters in September. I’d wonder too.

Read the Rest…

Debate Exposes Kerry's Space Policy

From SpaceRef.com :

A day after the last of the Presidential campaign debates, a hundred or so space professionals gathered this morning in Washington, DC to hear a debate between representatives of the Bush and Kerry campaigns on space policy. One campaign talked about what it was doing in space - the other talked about what it might do.

Representing the Kerry campaign was Lori Garver from DFI International. Garver said that she had been volunteering her time to the campaign for eight months. Garver is a former NASA Associate Administrator and the former Executive Director of the National Space Society. In recent weeks Garver has made it very clear to a number of people in the aerospace community that she is deeply interested in - and, indeed, is pushing for - the nod to be the next Administrator of NASA - should John Kerry win, of course. As such, Garver had been very anxious to debate Sean O’Keefe so as to enhance her stature as a possible successor. Alas, the Bush campaign decided to use another representative instead. Also in the audience (but not speaking) was John Logsdon from George Washington University who has also been formally advising the Kerry campaign this year.

Representing the Bush campaign was Frank Sietzen. Sietzen is a veteran space journalist and active member of the Republican party in Virginia. In his opening statement, Sietzen sought to allay any concerns about possible conflicts by announcing that he was no longer going to be reporting about space as a journalist and, instead, would be speaking out in support of the President’s space policy.
[…]
When asked to reconcile all that she had said about Kerry’s purported positive views on space with a voting record wherein he repeatedly voted to cut or cancel various NASA activities including the ISS, Garver noted that she was not all that concerned about this - and that one should not consider Kerry’s Senate voting record as being indicative of how Kerry would view NASA as President.
[…]
Sietzen replied with a detailed listing of the multiple occasions wherein Kerry consistently voted against NASA projects over the course of a decade to which Garver was repeatedly dismissive. Garver was either unwilling to defend Kerry’s voting record - or she was unable to. Given the constant harping that both campaigns make about the other candidate’s past - and their voting records - this is an amazingly lazy way for Garver to deal with the issue.
[…]
n the case of the Bush Administration’s space policy - Sietzen discussed a space policy that has actually been announced and is currently being enacted in great detail by NASA - with its budget now being debated by Congress. In stark contrast, and absent any overt space policy plan (Kerry has lots of ‘plans’) the best Lori Garver could do was to suggest what a Kerry policy might be. Indeed, one gets a clear indication that much of what Garver said was what she would like to see- not what Kerry might actually do.

Editor’s Note: For those of you who might be thinking that I am pro-Bush and anti- Kerry - let me set the record straight: if the election of 2004 was only about space policy, I would vote for George Bush without hesitation. I feel that a Kerry Administration would be disastrous for the prospects of a broad, exciting program of true human and robotic space exploration. Indeed, looking at John Kerry’s voting record on space, I feel that under John Kerry, America would shy away from the challenge that has been put before it - and that NASA would revert to what it did under the Clinton Administration i.e. go in circles - and go nowhere.

None the less, I plan on voting for John Kerry - but for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with space.

As such, don’t expect me to suggest how any of you should vote.

(Editor’s Note for TCP - of course, being Australian, I couldn’t vote anyway, the Editor’s Note above is from the original article)

• In 1991, Kerry Voted To “Reduce Funding For The Space Station From $2 Billion To $100 Million,” And Transfer Funds To Other Programs. (H.R. 2519, Congressional Quarterly Vote #132: Rejected 35-64: R 3-40; D 32-24, July 17, 1991, Kerry Voted Yea)
• In 1992, Kerry Voted To Terminate Space Station “Freedom” Project. (H.R. 5679, Congressional Quarterly Vote #194: Rejected 34-63: R 4-39; D 30-24, September 9, 1992, Kerry Voted Yea)
• In 1993, Kerry Voted “To Terminate The Space Station Program.” (H.R. 2491, Congressional Quarterly Vote #272: Motion Agreed To 59-40: R 36-8; D 23-32, September 21, 1993, Kerry Voted Nay)
• In 1993, Kerry Voted To Terminate Space Station Program And Divert Funds To Tax Cuts. (H.R. 3167, Congressional Quarterly Vote #335: Motion rejected 36-61: R 10-32; D 26-29, October 27, 1993, Kerry Voted Yea)
• In 1994, Kerry Voted To Cut $1.9 Billion From Space Station Program, Thus Terminating It. (H.R. 4624, Congressional Quarterly Vote #253: Rejected 36-64: R 6-38; D 30-26, August 3, 1994, Kerry Voted Yea)
• In 1995, Kerry Voted To Reduce NASA Funding By $400 Million. (H.R. 889, Congressional Quarterly Vote #105: Motion Agreed To 64-35: R 43-11; D 21-24, March 16, 1995, Kerry Voted Nay)
• In 1995, Kerry Voted To Cut $1.8 Billion From NASA’s Human Space Flight Program. (H.R. 2099, Congressional Quarterly Vote #463: Motion Rejected 35-64: R 12-41; D 23-23, September 26, 1995, Kerry Voted Yea)
• In 1996, Kerry Voted To Cut $1.6 Billion From NASA’s Human Space Flight Program And Terminate Space Station Program. (H.R. 3666, Congressional Quarterly Vote #267: Motion Agreed To 61-36: R 38-12; D 23-24, September 4, 1996, Kerry Voted Nay)

Posted by Alan Brain at 10:48 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

President Bush Opens 4-Point Lead

Bloomberg reports that Bush leads Senator John Kerry by 4 percentage points in the Reuters/Zogby tracking poll.

Bush 48%
Kerry 44%

The poll was conducted October 12-14 survey and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

From California Yankee.

Nader Emerging as the Threat Democrats Feared

NY TIMES: Nader Emerging as the Threat Democrats Feared

With less than three weeks before the election, Ralph Nader is emerging as just the threat that Democrats feared, with a potential to tip the balance in up to nine states where President Bush and Senator John Kerry are running neck and neck.

Despite a concerted effort by Democrats to derail his independent candidacy, as well as his being struck off the Pennsylvania ballot on Wednesday, Mr. Nader will be on the ballots in more than 30 states.

Polls show that he could influence the outcomes in nine by drawing support from Mr. Kerry. They are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

Moreover, six - Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin - were among the top 20 where Mr. Nader drew his strongest support in 2000. If the vote for Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry is as evenly divided as the polls suggest, the electoral votes in any one of those states could determine who becomes president.

Mr. Nader repeated this week that he had no intention of leaving the race. He said no one from the Kerry campaign or Democratic National Committee was pressing him behind the scenes to quit, and he said he thought that Mr. Kerry would not make a good president anyway.

“He’s not his own man,” Mr. Nader said on Tuesday in a telephone interview from California. “Because he takes the liberals for granted, he’s allowing Bush to pull him in his direction. It doesn’t show much for his character.”

That is a change from May, when Mr. Nader met Mr. Kerry at his campaign headquarters and afterward praised him as “very presidential.” Mr. Kerry did not ask him to withdraw then, but now the party is in a full-throated plea, with its chairman, Terry McAuliffe, saying on Thursday that Mr. Nader should “end the charade” of a campaign being kept afloat by “corporate backers.”

Election Day Coverage: Command Post Recruitment Notice!

We here at The Command Post pride ourselves on being able to cover all the news from around the globe in a timely matter, while remaining a friendly, interactive community.

As Election Day approaches, we are thinking about expanding that community interactivity in order to bring you the best, most complete coverage of the 2004 presidential election.

And this is where you come in. What we would like to do is recruit at least one Command Post representative from each state. That person would act as a man(woman)-on-the-spot for TCP by providing us with coverage from their state. The coverage could include man on the street interviews, photos from polling places, any breaking news happening in your area, coverage of your Senate or Congressional races, early results from your state in addition to anything else you think would be of interest to Command Post readers.

Just as TCP recorded history in the making by covering the beginning days of the Iraq war with minute by minute reporting from all over the world, we can again record history as it happens, with your help.

What do you get out of it? Well, if you have a blog you get your links in your coverage and most likely plenty of traffic to your site. But the best part is really being part of something bigger than that - you’ll be showing the world just how much the internet has changed the way the world get its news. You’ll be part of the largest information gathering on Election Day. History is made each Election Day. This year, you can be part of bringing that history into millions of homes as people from around the world keep an eye on the U.S. Election results.

Since March of 2003, TCP has been the place to go to for millions of people who want news as it happens and as it unfolds. November 2 will push Command Post forward once more, and we’d like nothing more than to have our loyal readers take part in that.

To sign up for our 2004 TCP Election Coverage Team, email us at michele at command-post dot org or alan at command-post dot org. We’ll respond as quickly as we can. Journalism is history written on the run. This Election Day, help us record the race!!

Is Bush Worried?

From the Financial Times:

Mr. Bush made his first journey to the back of Air Force One in three years on Thursday to talk to the travelling press corps to say: “The debate phase of the campaign is over and now it’s a sprint to the finish. I’m enthusiastic about my chances…”

Trade Deficit Soars; Jobless Claims Rise

From the Washington Post:

The trade deficit jumped to the second-highest level in history as surging demand for foreign oil swamped a small gain in U.S. exports, the government reported Thursday. America’s trade gap with China hit an all-time high as retailers stocked up on cell phones, toys and televisions in preparation for Christmas sales.

The worse-than-expected trade performance in August - a deficit of $54 billion - represented a 6.9 percent widening from July’s trade gap of $50.5 billion. The record monthly deficit was set in June at $55 billion.

. . . .

Analysts said the bad news on trade will only get worse in coming months given that oil prices have continued to soar, with crude oil hitting a new record of $54.76 per barrel Thursday.

“The skyrocketing oil prices are sucking the wind out of the economy,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. “And the worst is yet to come.”

In a second economic report, the Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted level of 352,000. The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out weekly changes, rose by 4,000 to a seven-month high of 352,000.

The jobless claims report reflects a labor market that is continuing to disappoint economists’ expectations. The country added a lower-than-expected 96,000 jobs in September as the unemployment rate held steady at 5.4 percent.

Reuters Poll: Bush Takes One-Point Lead

Reuters reports President Bush leads Kerry by 1 point in the latest Reuters/Zogby tracking poll:

Reuters/Zogby International Tracking Poll
Bush 46%
Kerry 45%
The poll was conducted October 11-13 and has an margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

From California Yankee.

"Republicans and the Politics of the Latino Vote"

From the report “Losing Ground or Staying Even: Republicans and the Politics of the Latino Vote” by University of Maryland Professor of Government James Gimpel:

Court throws Nader off Pennsylvania ballot

CNN: Court throws Nader off Pennsylvania ballot

A state court knocked Ralph Nader off Pennsylvania’s presidential ballot on Wednesday, citing thousands of fradulent petition signatures including “Mickey Mouse” and “Fred Flintstone.”

Describing the petitions as “rife with forgeries,” Commonwealth Court President Judge James Gardner Colins said that fewer than 19,000 of the more than 51,000 signatures that Nader’s supporters submitted were valid. Nader needed at least 25,697 to be listed on the ballot as an independent candidate.

“I am compelled to emphasize that this signature-gathering process was the most deceitful and fraudulent exercise ever perpetrated upon this court,” Colins said in a 15-page ruling that followed a two-week review in multiple courtrooms across the state.

“The conduct of the candidates, through their representatives (not their attorneys), shocks the conscience of the court,” he said. “In reviewing signatures, it became apparent that, in addition to signing names such as ‘Mickey Mouse,’ ‘Fred Flintstone,’ ‘John Kerry,’ and the ubiquitous ‘Ralph Nader,’ there were thousands of names that were created at random and then randomly assigned either existent or nonexistent addresses by the circulators.”

DRUDGE: Charge voter intimidation, even if none exists

Matt Drudge in a WORLD EXCLUSIVE BREAKING NEWS has posted a page out of the DNC Election Manual that suggests that operatives launch “pre-emptive strikes” charging voter intimidation where none has been reported…

2. If no signs of intimidation techniques have emerged yet, launch a “pre-emtive strike” (particularly well-suited tio states in which there [sic] techniques have been tried in the past).

Issue a press release
i. Reviewing Republican tactic used in the past in your area or state
ii. Quoting party/minority/civil rights leadership as denouncing tactics that discourage people from voting

Prime minority leadership to discuss the issue in the media; provide talking pints.

Place stories in which minority leadership expresses concern about the threat of intimidation tactics.

Warn local newspapers not to accept advertising that is not properly disclaimed or that contains false warnings about voting requirements and/or about what will happen at the polls.

Who’s the Fear Campaigner now?

Debate Transcript/Open Discussion

BOB SCHIEFFER, CBS ANCHOR: Good evening from Arizona State University in Tempe, Arizona. I’m Bob Schieffer of CBS News. I want to welcome you to the third and last of the 2004 debates between President George Bush and Senator John Kerry.

As Jim Lehrer told you before the first one, these debates are sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Tonight the topic will be domestic affairs, but the format will be the same as that first debate. I’ll moderate our discussion under detailed rules agreed to by the candidates, but the questions and the areas to be covered were chosen by me. I have not told the candidates or anyone else what they are.

To refresh your memory on the rules, I will ask a question. The candidate is allowed two minutes to answer. His opponent then has a minute and a half to offer a rebuttal.

At my discretion, I can extend the discussion by offering each candidate an additional 30 seconds.

A green light will come on to signal the candidate has 30 seconds left. A yellow light signals 15 seconds left. A red light means five seconds left.

There is also a buzzer, if it is needed.

The candidates may not question each other directly. There are no opening statements, but there will be two-minute closing statements.

There is an audience here tonight, but they have agreed to remain silent, except for right now, when they join me in welcoming President George Bush and Senator John Kerry.

Gentleman, welcome to you both.

By coin toss, the first question goes to Senator Kerry.

Senator, I want to set the stage for this discussion by asking the question that I think hangs over all of our politics today and is probably on the minds of many people watching this debate tonight.

And that is, will our children and grandchildren ever live in a world as safe and secure as the world in which we grew up?

SENATOR JOHN KERRY: Well, first of all, Bob, thank you for moderating tonight.

Thank you, Arizona State, for welcoming us.

And thank you to the Presidential Commission for undertaking this enormous task. We’re proud to be here.

Mr. President, I’m glad to be here with you again to share similarities and differences with the American people.

Will we ever be safe and secure again? Yes. We absolutely must be. That’s the goal.

Now, how do we achieve it is the most critical component of it.

I believe that this president, regrettably, rushed us into a war, made decisions about foreign policy, pushed alliances away. And, as a result, America is now bearing this extraordinary burden where we are not as safe as we ought to be.

The measurement is not: Are we safer? The measurement is: Are we as safe as we ought to be? And there are a host of options that this president had available to him, like making sure that at all our ports in America containers are inspected. Only 95 percent of them — 95 percent come in today uninspected. That’s not good enough.

People who fly on airplanes today, the cargo hold is not X-rayed, but the baggage is. That’s not good enough. Firehouses don’t have enough firefighters in them. Police officers are being cut from the streets of America because the president decided to cut the COPS program.

So we can do a better job of homeland security. I can do a better job of waging a smarter, more effective war on terror and guarantee that we will go after the terrorists.

I will hunt them down, and we’ll kill them, we’ll capture them. We’ll do whatever is necessary to be safe.

But I pledge this to you, America: I will do it in the way that Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan and John Kennedy and others did, where we build the strongest alliances, where the world joins together, where we have the best intelligence and where we are able, ultimately, to be more safe and secure.

SCHIEFFER: Mr. President, you have 90 seconds.

PRESIDENT BUSH: Thank you very much.

I want to thank Arizona State as well.

Yes, we can be safe and secure, if we stay on the offense against the terrorists and if we spread freedom and liberty around the world.

I have got a comprehensive strategy to not only chase down the Al Qaida, wherever it exists — and we’re making progress; three-quarters of Al Qaida leaders have been brought to justice — but to make sure that countries that harbor terrorists are held to account.

As a result of securing ourselves and ridding the Taliban out of Afghanistan, the Afghan people had elections this weekend. And the first voter was a 19-year-old woman. Think about that. Freedom is on the march.

We held to account a terrorist regime in Saddam Hussein.

In other words, in order to make sure we’re secure, there must be a comprehensive plan.

My opponent just this weekend talked about how terrorism could be reduced to a nuisance, comparing it to prostitution, illegal gambling. I think that attitude and that point of view is dangerous. I don’t think you can secure America for the long run if you don’t have a comprehensive view as to how to defeat these people.

At home, we’ll do everything we can to protect the homeland. I signed the homeland security bill to better align our assets and resources. My opponent voted against it.

We’re doing everything we can to protect our borders and ports.

But absolutely we can be secure in the long run. It just takes good, strong leadership.

SCHIEFFER: Anything to add, Senator Kerry?

KERRY: Yes. When the president had an opportunity to capture or kill Osama bin Laden, he took his focus off of them, outsourced the job to Afghan warlords, and Osama bin Laden escaped.

Six months after he said Osama bin Laden must be caught dead or alive, this president was asked, “Where is Osama bin Laden?” He said, “I don’t know. I don’t really think about him very much. I’m not that concerned.”

We need a president who stays deadly focused on the real war on terror.

SCHIEFFER: Mr. President?

BUSH: Gosh, I just don’t think I ever said I’m not worried about Osama bin Laden. It’s kind of one of those exaggerations.

Of course we’re worried about Osama bin Laden. We’re on the hunt after Osama bin Laden. We’re using every asset at our disposal to get Osama bin Laden.

My opponent said this war is a matter of intelligence and law enforcement. No, this war is a matter of using every asset at our disposal to keep the American people protected.

SCHIEFFER: New question, Mr. President, to you.

We are talking about protecting ourselves from the unexpected, but the flu season is suddenly upon us. Flu kills thousands of people every year.

Suddenly we find ourselves with a severe shortage of flu vaccine. How did that happen?

BUSH: Bob, we relied upon a company out of England to provide about half of the flu vaccines for the United States citizen, and it turned out that the vaccine they were producing was contaminated. And so we took the right action and didn’t allow contaminated medicine into our country.

We’re working with Canada to hopefully — that they’ll produce a — help us realize the vaccine necessary to make sure our citizens have got flu vaccinations during this upcoming season.

My call to our fellow Americans is if you’re healthy, if you’re younger, don’t get a flu shot this year. Help us prioritize those who need to get the flu shot, the elderly and the young.

The CDC, responsible for health in the United States, is setting those priorities and is allocating the flu vaccine accordingly.

I haven’t gotten a flu shot, and I don’t intend to because I want to make sure those who are most vulnerable get treated.

We have a problem with litigation in the United States of America. Vaccine manufacturers are worried about getting sued, and therefore they have backed off from providing this kind of vaccine.

One of the reasons I’m such a strong believer in legal reform is so that people aren’t afraid of producing a product that is necessary for the health of our citizens and then end up getting sued in a court of law.

But the best thing we can do now, Bob, given the circumstances with the company in England is for those of us who are younger and healthy, don’t get a flu shot.

SCHIEFFER: Senator Kerry?

KERRY: This really underscores the problem with the American health-care system. It’s not working for the American family. And it’s gotten worse under President Bush over the course of the last years.

Five million Americans have lost their health insurance in this country. You’ve got about a million right here in Arizona, just shy, 950,000, who have no health insurance at all. 82,000 Arizonians lost their health insurance under President Bush’s watch. 223,000 kids in Arizona have no health insurance at all.

All across our country — go to Ohio, 1.4 million Ohioans have no health insurance, 114,000 of them lost it under President Bush; Wisconsin, 82,000, Wisconsites lost it under President Bush.

This president has turned his back on the wellness of America. And there is no system. In fact, it’s starting to fall apart not because of lawsuits — though they are a problem, and John Edwards and I are committed to fixing them — but because of the larger issue that we don’t cover Americans.

Children across our country don’t have health care. We’re the richest country on the face of the planet, the only industrialized nation in the world not to do it.

I have a plan to cover all Americans. We’re going to make it affordable and accessible. We’re going to let everybody buy into the same health-care plan senators and congressmen give themselves.

SCHIEFFER: Mr. President, would you like to add something?

BUSH: I would. Thank you.

I want to remind people listening tonight that a plan is not a litany of complaints, and a plan is not to lay out programs that you can’t pay for.

He just said he wants everybody to be able to buy in to the same plan that senators and congressmen get. That costs the government $7,700 per family. If every family in America signed up, like the senator suggested, if would cost us $5 trillion over 10 years.

It’s an empty promise. It’s called bait and switch.

SCHIEFFER: Time’s up.

BUSH: Thank you.

KERRY: Actually, it’s not an empty promise.

It’s really interesting, because the president used that very plan as a reason for seniors to accept his prescription drug plan. He said, if it’s good enough for the congressmen and senators to have choice, seniors ought to have choice.

What we do is we have choice. I choose Blue Cross/Blue Shield. Other senators, other congressmen choose other programs.

But the fact is, we’re going to help Americans be able to buy into it. Those that can afford it are going to buy in themselves. We’re not giving this away for nothing.

SCHIEFFER: All right.

Senator Kerry, a new question. Let’s talk about economic security. You pledged during the last debate that you would not raise taxes on those making less than $200,000 a year. But the price of everything is going up, and we all know it. Health care costs, as you all talking about, is skyrocketing, the cost of the war.

My question is, how can you or any president, whoever is elected next time, keep that pledge without running this country deeper into debt and passing on more of the bills that we’re running up to our children?

KERRY: I’ll tell you exactly how I can do it: by reinstating what President Bush took away, which is called pay as you go.

During the 1990s, we had pay-as-you-go rules. If you were going to pass something in the Congress, you had to show where you are going to pay for it and how.

President Bush has taken — he’s the only president in history to do this.

He’s also the only president in 72 years to lose jobs — 1.6 million jobs lost. He’s the only president to have incomes of families go down for the last three years; the only president to see exports go down; the only president to see the l