The Answer Is "Yes"

The BBC wonders “Will the Dean-iacs back Kerry?” Well, I feel relatively confident that Bush won’t get their vote. Must mean a big surge for Nader! (Via ED)

It's About The Oil

John Kerry has a plan to reduce your gasoline prices … read more at Reuters. (Via ED)

Cheney AtTAX

Dick Cheney is going after Kerry on tax cuts, “portraying the Democratic presidential candidate as a chronic tax hiker whose pledges to maintain tax cuts for the middle class cannot be trusted.” (That line comes courtesy the Washington Post). If that’s not enough story for you, visit the New York Times.

The Kerry response: That the administration had sprung Cheney from “an undisclosed location and brought him out to attack me.”

Am I having fun yet?

Its About The P-Op

It’s all about the background, actually, and the Reagan administration understood the art of the photo op image better than anyone. Now the LA Times (via ED) tells us that Kerry, too, has “learned the fine art of the photo op.”

But can anyone forget him on the Harley?

Late To The Party

The LA Times is reporting the use of “attack ads” on the Web (via ED) … a trend we noted to Command Post readers some time ago.

Election Projection

Election Projection is back, and some new stats are up.

Current Projected Tally:

Scott Elliot does note some interesting things about this current data:

Kerry’s lofty numbers were falsely inflated by flattering news coverage and a non-active opponent in George W. Bush. The political climate has changed on both accounts.

Read the rest and check out the comments as well.

Bush-Kerry Smackdown

This week’s Toast-O-Meter is done. It’s a weekly news roundup and assessent of the ongoing bid for the White House.

Showing Feelings of an almost Human Nature

…This Will Not Do. as the Pink Floyd song goes.

Inspired by a comment on another post, I found some reports via Google - the earliest dating only hours ago - about George W. Bush’s presentation at the 60th annual dinner of the Radio and Television Correspondents Association. This one’s from the Adelaide Advertiser :

US President George W. Bush made a joke about weapons of mass destruction not being found in Iraq at a late-night dinner for Amerian journalists yesterday.

Mr Bush poked fun at himself and other members of his administration at the annual White House dinner for Radio and Television correspondents in Washington.

It goes on to say :

In one, he showed a picture of him down on all fours rummaging under a desk in the Oval Office, saying “Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be somewhere.”

It was quickly followed by another similar picture. “Nope, no weapons over there,” he said.

In his four years on the national and international stage, Mr Bush has often been ridiculed for his tendency to muddle sentences and confuse words - and even invent new ones.

He made this tendency the butt of another of his jokes, saying: “Fortunately my verbal phonation and electrocution have improved.”
[…]
His slide show segued into a sombre ending, showing a group of special forces troops in Afghanistan at the site where they buried a piece of the fallen World Trade Centre in commemoration of the dead from September 11.

The reaction from the humour-impaired {sorry, my objectivity went out for a tea-break} public has been predictable. From Scotsman :

Many CNN viewers emailed the news network to complain at Mr Bush’s “tasteless” remarks.

One wrote: “How can a thinking, caring human being joke about the lies that led to body bags and broken young men and women? I was appalled”.

Another wrote: “It was tasteless and childish. It shows the true man - or child in his case. Why didn’t he throw in a few September 11 jokes as well?”

And another said: “I wonder if the families of our soldiers patrolling there today, who died there yesterday, who may die there today, thought it was funny.”

Parenthetically, I thought Donald Rumsfeld’s comment was the most apposite. Also from the same article:

Defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked about the incident in a press briefing later, but ducked the question.

He said: “To know what I would think, I would have to be there.”

Remember when J.F.Kerry described one of the people sworn to “take a bullet” for him if need be as a “Son-Of-A-Bitch”? Then excused himself as only joking? Rumsfeld does, and what the Kerry team said about it afterwards. As reported in the New York Post :

The Sen. John Kerry team seems more than a mite embarrassed the presidential wannabe cursed out a Secret Service agent as “that son of a bitch” after colliding with him while snowboarding last week. Asked if that’s appropriate language, Kerry’s spokesman, Michael Meehan, tried to wriggle out of answering on Fox News Channel’s “Hannity and Colmes.” Quoth Meehan: “I don’t know. I wasn’t there . . . it’s a hypothetical I’m not interested in . . . I wasn’t there. Were you?”

Rumsfeld has a dry, laconic, and subtle wit. As I’ve said before, he’d be right at home here in Oz.

One thing’s for sure: no-one could possibly imagine J.F.Kerry, nor Jacques Chirac for that matter, ever, under any circumstances, self-deprecatingly and deliberately poking fun at themselves. Some would say they parody themselves unconsciously {Dammit Objectivity, Come back here at once! Come back or this article will go in the Op Ed section!} Sorry about that.

UPDATE : You can go and see what those that served in Iraq think on this issue. And to see the remarks in context, you can look at excerpts in a short video.
(Hat Tip : reader Robin)

Dead Heat

A Fox News poll shows Bush and Kerry tied in the race for president at 44% each.

With Nader in the picture, it’s Bush 43%, Kerry 42%, and Nader 3%, giving credence to the “Nader is going to ruin the Democrats” theory.

A telling statistic from the poll:

By a margin of 43 to 36 percent voters think Bush will win in November.

More stats:

* A 65 percent majority approves of the Bush administration’s response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and by almost two-to-one Americans continue to support the U.S. having taken military action against Iraq.

• [O]ver six in 10 think it is likely terrorists will try to influence the outcome of this year’s presidential election with a major attack on U.S. soil later this year.

• As voters gear up for eight months of campaigning, more than twice as many say they are “dreading it” as say they are “looking forward to it.” That feeling of dread may in part be caused by the tone of the campaigning to date, which more Americans describe as “rude and disrespectful” (40 percent) than as “polite and respectful” (29 percent).

Count me in that “dreading it” category, because I’m certainly in the 40%.

Dick Morris On The Ides Of March

From The Hill, via ED:

The moment of political victory or defeat most often passes unnoticed by journalists and the insiders of the respective political campaigns.

It is only in the retrospective of history that it becomes clear, and, even then, it is often distorted by the myopia of historians.

But March 2004 gives every sign of going down in history as the crucial month of the presidential campaign. It will, very possibly, be recorded as the month in which Sen. John Kerry lost the election.

Why? According to Morris, many reasons … focusing on fundraising … taking time to ski … attack ads … all of which contributed to losing the momentum while the Bush campaign moved to Campaign Defcon Level 5. Don’t listen to me, though … we post ‘em here so you can see for yourself. Judge Morris as you will.

Rasmussen Tips To Bush

While pollsters like John Zogby have the presidential race either dead even or slightly favoring President Bush in a three-way race, the Rasmussen Report says Bush continues to build a lead over Sen. John Kerry even without Ralph Nader factored in.

As of yesterday, Rasmussen has it 48-45 Bush. In a week, Bush picked up four percent while Kerry lost a tick. (Kerry also jumped four points from his March 18 low of 43 percent.)

“Some Other Candidate” - they don’t ask respondents if they support Nader by name - gets 4 percent.

Rasmussen breaks it down further:

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Americans say that Bush is a better leader than Kerry while 33% take the opposite view.

Among those who use the Internet on a regular basis (several times a week or more), 50% say they will vote for Bush while 42% pick Kerry. Among those who are not on-line regularly, Kerry is favored 48% to 44%.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

This Week's Campaign '04 Linkfest and Handicapiing is done.

PoliBlog’s Toast-O-Meter is up.

Picking A Partner

The BBC offers a perspective on the selection of a Veep, and compares the process, only half-jokingly, to that of picking the Pope. (Via ED)

Nader Debater

Ralph Nader discusses the new criteria for getting in on the presidential debates:

The new Debate Commission’s criteria are that a candidate must be on enough states’ ballots to be able theoretically to win the electoral college, and must either garner 5% voter support or be supported by a majority of citizens in polls who want him/her to be on the Presidential debates.

Nader’s already at five percent or more in the polls. Even if he slips a couple of points, he could still earn the right to get on stage with the president and Sen. John Kerry if “a majority of citizens” who are polled say they want him there.

This is a potentially a huge problem for Kerry.

The more you look at the numbers, the easier it is to see that Nader’s simply not going away and his profile is going to increase, not decrease, before election day. The debates will become a story in and of themselves and Nader will be an integral part of that story.

Stay tuned.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

Kerry and Local Donations

Boots & Sabers found a tool that allowed me to see how well my experience represents my community. By simply entering my address, the Fundrace 2004 robot looks up the public donation records of everyone near me. If you check on your own neighbors, and I know you will, be patient. Even in the wee hours of the night, it took a few minutes for a response.

I was surprised by the results. There were many more donations for Bush than for the Democrats. This was not that surprising, most Republican money comes from small donations while the majority of Democratic funding comes from special interest groups (e.g., unions) and liberal millionaires. In addition, there were quite a few donations for various Democratic nominees (Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, and Dick Gephardt to be precise).

The surprise was that the nearest person who donated to John Kerry lived over 75 miles away from my house. I live in a battleground state. If the lack of local enthusiasm for Kerry’s campaign continues through November, he will have an uproad battle to win this state.

John Kerry Endorsed by Zapatero, Mohamad, and Kim Jong-il

John Kerry has received endorsements from:

1. Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero, leader of the Spanish Socialist Party. Via the ShortNews website:

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Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero, leader of the Spanish Socialist Party and victor in the recent national elections, has given his endorsement to John Kerry’s US leadership bid, saying “I think Kerry will win. I want Kerry to win.”

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2. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Via the Little Green Footballs website:

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PUTRAJAYA, Malaysia - Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad endorsed Democratic contender John Kerry in the U.S. presidential race Thursday, saying he would keep the world safer than President Bush.

“But in the U.S., the Jewish lobby is very strong, and any American who wants to become president cannot change the policy toward Palestine radically,” he said.

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3. Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s dictatorial “Dear Leader.” Via Tacitus:

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“North Korea is waiting for its own regime change — in D.C.,” said Pang Zhongying, professor of international relations at China’s Nankai University.

“I expect North Korea to make certain compromises in the six-party talks to keep them going,” said Li Dunqiu, a North Korea expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “But don’t expect any real progress before the U.S. elections.”

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Not surprisingly, Kerry has asked that foreign leaders STOP endorsing him, per the Drudge Report:

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KERRY: NO FOREIGN ENDORSEMENTS, PLEASE… Kerry Foreign Policy Advisor Rand Beers issued the following statement today: ‘…It is simply not appropriate for any foreign leader to endorse a candidate in America’s presidential election. John Kerry does not seek, and will not accept, any such endorsements’…

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This is a duplicate of the original post from the nikita demosthenes website.

Bush Has A Friend In Pennsylvania

President Bush has a friend in Pennsylvania and his name is Ralph Nader. This just came out of Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute:

Pennsylvania is shaping up once again as a critical state in the Presidential race as voters give 44 percent to President George W. Bush, 40 percent to Democratic challenger John Kerry and 7 percent to independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a head-to-head race, without Nader, Kerry gets 45 percent to President Bush’s 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Pennsylvania carries 21 electoral votes.

Former Vice President Al Gore won Pennsylvania by a whisker in 2000 - a margin of about 200,000 votes out of more than 4.5 million cast. Nader took about 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania four years ago.

Sure, there’s a lot of time between now and election day, and early polls often don’t mean a lot. But in Pennsylvania, the early polling numbers mean this: the Democrats, including Kerry, will have to spend an awful lot of resources in the state to fight two opponents - merely to keep Pennsylvania in the blue column this year. That would likely mean fewer resources to fight in other battlegrounds like Florida.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

New Poll Is Better News For President Bush

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll provides better news for President Bush.

According to the New York Times article about the poll:

Already, most voters think Mr. Kerry is a politician who says what people want to hear, the poll found, rather than what he believes — the line of attack Mr. Bush has used against him in speeches.

At the same time, there is sweeping concern among Americans about the president’s economic policies, including his ability to create jobs and the effectiveness of his tax cuts, according to the poll.

[. . .]

Perhaps most significant for Mr. Bush, the number of Americans who think that the nation is heading in the wrong direction is now 54 percent, as high as it has been in his presidency.

[. . .]

The Times/CBS News poll offered the latest evidence that the race for president was as tight as has long been predicted. Even after two weeks in which Mr. Bush has run televised advertisements promoting himself and attacking Mr. Kerry, and in which Mr. Kerry has enjoyed the glow of favorable coverage that greeted his near-sweep of Democratic primaries, the two men are effectively tied, with 46 percent of voters saying they supported Mr. Bush and 43 percent backing Mr. Kerry.

The candidacy of Ralph Nader looms as a potentially lethal threat to Democratic hopes of regaining the White House: With Mr. Nader in the race, Mr. Bush leads Mr. Kerry by 46 percent to 38 percent, with Mr. Nader drawing 7 percent of the votes. In a sign of the polarized electorate Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry are facing, three-quarters of supporters of each candidate asserted they would not change their mind before the election.

The nationwide telephone poll of 1,206 adults, including 984 registered voters, was taken from last Wednesday through Sunday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The Times’ article correctly states that the 46% Bush 43% Kerry spread is within the poll’s margin of error. However the Times doesn’t point out that this is a reversal of the polls February results which found Kerry ahead 47% - 46%.

The poll can be accessed by following this link and in the Campaign 2004 box click on the “Interactive Feature: Complete Results: New York Times/CBS Poll” link.

Sharpton Endorses Kerry

The Associated Press reports that Sharpton endorsed Kerry, but promised to continue his own “urban agenda campaign:”

“It would be misleading and futile to campaign for the nomination, but it continues for the platform and direction of the party,” Sharpton told The Associated Press in a telephone interview. “My campaign continues now to pick up delegates so that we can go to the convention to coalesce with other delegates.”

[. . .]

In welcoming the endorsement, Kerry praised Sharpton’s “ability to cut through the double-talk we see coming from this administration,” and pledged to work for Sharpton’s oft-stated goal of a new “urban agenda.”

Kerry Refuses To Reveal Which Foreign Leaders Support Him

On Fox News Sunday Chris wallace asked Secretary of State Powell about Kerry’s assertion that foreign leaders want Kerry to defeat Bush:

WALLACE: All right. I’m not sure you can answer this one, but I would like to get your comment on it, if I could.

Senator Kerry says that foreign leaders — you look like you know this — want him to beat the president. And here’s what he’s had to say: “I’ve met with foreign leaders who can’t go out and say this publicly, but boy, they look at you and say, ‘You’ve got to win this. You’ve got to beat this guy. We need a new policy.”’

POWELL: I can’t even talk to that, Chris. I don’t know what foreign leaders Senator Kerry is talking about. It’s an easy charge, an easy assertion to make. But if he feels it is that important an assertion to make, he ought to list some names. If he can’t list names, then perhaps he should find something else to talk about.

Kerry refused to reveal which foreign leaders are rooting for him when questioned about the issue during a town meeting in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.

Kerry's Nomination Official, Asks for Monthly Debates

John Kerry officially became the Democratic party nominee

The four-term Massachusetts senator reached the 2,162 delegate mark Saturday afternoon, the AP count found, just as Democrats in Kansas headed to party caucuses.

Kerry subsequently added to his tally with another easy victory in Kansas, winning 72 percent of the vote there and pushing his delegate total to 2,194.

During a speech in Quincy, Illinois yesterday, Kerry let the first official arrows fly:

“Surely, if the attack ads can start now, at least we can agree to start a real discussion about America’s future.”

Kerry then called for monthly debates with President Bush Kerry on the big issues facing America; mainly the war on terror, the economy and health care.

We confront big issues — as big as any issues in the history of our nation — and they call for a new and historic commitment to a real and informed exchange of ideas,” said Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts Democrat. “I believe the American people are hungry for a genuine conversation about the fundamental questions before us, and they are ready to begin this now

Bush campaign representitive Steve Schmiddt wasn’t all that impressed with Kerry’s call for civil discourse:

Steve Schmidt, a Bush campaign representative, said Kerry had run 17 negative spots — a total of 15,000 times — and spent $6.3 million attacking the president in the primaries. He also noted that Kerry called his Republican rivals “the most crooked, you know, lying group I’ve ever seen” last week.

“Senator Kerry should finish the debate with himself before he starts trying to explain his positions to the voters,” said Schmidt.

The Weekly Round is Done

PoliBlog’s Toast-O-Meter, a weekly news and commentary round-up concerning the presidential race is now available here.

Democrats Attempt Massive Voter Fraud in Chicago

In Cook County, Illinois - a jurisdiction in which every single elected official is a Democrat - a massive attempt at voter fraud has been uncovered. Here are excerpts from the story in the Chicago Tribune:

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“[A] very valuable partner in registering voters” indeed. Perhaps this sort of thing is the reason why every single elected official in Cook County is a Democrat.

Chicago’s 26th Ward - the epicenter of the fraud - is also dominated by Democrats. See, e.g., the web sites of Alderman Billy Ocasio and Congressman Luis Gutierrez.

Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post on the nikita demosthenes website.

California Supreme Court Halts San Francisco Gay Marriages

The Supreme Court of California, earlier today, halted gay marriages in San Francisco. Here’s an excerpt from the late-breaking story in the L.A. Times:

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Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post at the nikita demosthenes website.

Kerry Caught on Tape

Kerry either forgot his mic was on or just didn’t care.

The comments, caught on tape, came after Kerry addressed the AFL-CIO by satellite. Union workers had been standing behind him. When the satellite feed ended, Kerry spoke briefly with a couple of them.

“Keep smiling,” one man said to him.

Kerry responded, “Oh yeah, don’t worry man. We’re going to keep pounding, let me tell you — we’re just beginning to fight here. These guys are the most crooked, you know, lying group of people I’ve ever seen.”

“It’s scary,” replied another worker.

When asked about the incident campaign official David Wade didn’t really explain or defend, he just launched into some equivalence:

Some Republicans have launched the most “crooked, deceitful, personal attacks over the last four years,” Wade said, citing what he called attacks on Democratic Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia two years ago and attacks on Sen. John McCain during the race against Bush for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000.

Wade also pointed to a doctored photograph that placed Kerry alongside Jane Fonda during protests of the Vietnam war. That doctored photograph surfaced after an authentic photograph surfaced that showed Kerry sitting several rows behind Fonda at an anti-war rally.

So, Kerry was just getting even with the Republicans for past incidents, sort of like Todd Bertuzzi going after Mike Moore?

And that doctored photo was passed around mostly by bloggers and other non-Bush affiliated sites.

SuperChad Tuesday

In a no-interest no-contest, John Kerry has won the Florida Primary. Read the details at FOX.

Kerry's Wife Finances Anti-WOT Group That Protested Bush Ads

This morning’s NY Post editorial exposes the financial link between John Kerry’s wife and Peaceful Tomorrows, a small group of anti-war relatives of September 11 victims. Members of Peaceful Tomorrows were recently represented in the media as average September 11 families who objected to the Bush campaign’s brief use of September 11 images in one of the President’s first campaign ads:

Leading the rhetorical charge has been an outfit called September 11th Families for Peaceful Tomorrows - which, the group admits, has only a few dozen members and represents relatives of no more than 1 percent of the 9/11 victims.

As Richard Berman, director of the Center for Consumer Freedom, told Congress in 2002: “The Tides Foundation distributes other foundations’ money, while shielding the identity of the actual donors.”

Kerry Ready to "pre-challenge" Election Results

Kerry rarely mentions the legal battle over the 2000 election while campaigning, but he did so repeatedly in the state that was the epicenter four years ago. Responding to a voter who asked, “What can you do to prevent them from stealing the election again?”, Kerry, a lawyer and former Massachusetts prosecutor, said his campaign was assembling a legal team to examine districts which had problems.

“We’re going to pre-check it, we’re going to have the legal team in place. … We’re going to take injunctions where necessary ahead of time. We’ll pre-challenge if necessary,” the four-term Massachusetts senator said.

Full story

The Mighty Midwest

Here’s a pretty decent analysis (written from a California perspective) of where the Electoral College battle lines are being drawn for the November election:

Strategists for Bush and Kerry are mapping out an electoral plan for the eight-month presidential campaign that focuses on a handful of Midwestern states — Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin — as well as Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico and perhaps West Virginia and Arizona. And, of course, there’s Florida, the most infamous swing state of the last election.

Emphasis added. Read the whole thing, as they say.

Kerry Looking to Send His Own Team to Iraq

Time:

Senator John Kerry tells TIME that he “almost certainly” will send a team to Iraq “within the next few weeks or months” to help him formulate his Iraq policy positions. “I may ask some Democratic colleagues and experts to go to Iraq and make this assessment so I have a strong basis on which to proceed,” he tells TIME’s Perry Bacon, Lisa Beyer and Karen Tumulty on his campaign plane from Washington, DC to Florida last week. He mentions Senate colleague Joseph Biden, chief campaign foreign policy adviser Rand Beers and longtime Kerry Senate aide Nancy Stetson. But, says White House communications director Dan Bartlett, Kerry’s “mission to finally understand what is happening in Iraq reveals once again that (his) attacks are based on politics, not facts.”

Whatever approach he embraces will have a better chance of success, Kerry argues, because he knows how to play well with others..”

Kerry Vs. Kerry

The Republican National Committee today unveiled Kerry Vs. Kerry, an interactive Internet game designed to highlight Kerry’s history of changing his position on thirty different issues:

“If voters are interested in finding out about Senator Kerry’s multiple positions on multiple issues they can inform themselves by going a few rounds with Kerry Vs. Kerry. We think they’ll find the only thing consistent about Senator Kerry’s record is its inconsistency,” said RNC Communications Director Jim Dyke.

“Voters will be enlightened and entertained as they click to flip and then flop with Senator Kerry on all the important issues of the day. From taxes to national security to education, if you have a position, chances are good Senator Kerry has shared that position, and also opposed it, at some point in his Senate career. We invite voters to take a closer look, and have a little fun at the same time,” Dyke said.

You can read Kerry’s multiple positions without playing the game here.

President Bush Defends Sept. 11 Focus

President Bush dismissed calls that he pull political ads that use images of the devastated World Trade Center to show him as a strong leader in troubled times:

“I will continue to speak about the effects of 9/11 on our country and my presidency,” Bush told reporters at a joint news conference with Mexican President Vicente Fox at Bush’s Crawford, Texas ranch. “How this administration handled that day as well as the war on terror is worthy of discussion and I look forward to discussing that with the American people.”

Bush v. Kerry Polls

From a Fox News poll:

• If the election were held today, Bush and Kerry would be in a dead heat
• Bush is the more trustworthy of the two candidates when it comes to war
• Kerry gets the lead on managing the economy
• Bush’s approval rating is at 48%, with 44% disapproving
• 58% think the country is safer today than it was before 9/11
• 57% believe that taking military action abroad is necessary to keep from fighting terrorists on U.S. soil

Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national poll of registered voters for FOX News on March 3-4.

An AP Poll finds:

• Kerry and Bush tied
• Nader polling at 6%

Show Me the Money

As a group, the Democrats continue to raise more money than the Republicans. This slight edge has grown by a full percentage point since I last reviewed the situation in November. Yet, as a wise man once said, a house divided against itself will not stand.

One of the advantages of incumbency is that their party’s money is usually not spent in a primary fight. President Bush has $104 million dollars on hand in his warchest. Senator Kerry has $2 million. Even if the Democrats continue to raise $1.19 for every $1.00 the Republicans raise, and it all goes to Kerry, the Democrats would have to raise $537 million dollars (compared to the Republicans raising $452 million) to pull even. Unless George Soros or Teresa Heinz decide to commit a major portion of their wealth, it is not going to happen.

What Are the Odds?

Taegan Goddard has James Carville’s odds on Kerry’s VP selection:

* John Edwards — 6 to 5: “What Kerry needs is someone to defend him and help make his case. If you had to hire a lawyer to defend you, name a better one.”
* Dick Gephardt — 5 to 1: “He is generally regarded as the most prepared to be president, suggests Mr. Carville, and as a man of enormous personal and public probity.”
* Bill Richardson — 5 to 1: “Not as articulate as Edwards or as qualified as Gephardt but gives some of both.” But Carville has some advice: to Gov. Richardson: “Go on a diet.”
* Evan Bayh — 7 to 1: “A fresh face, an Edwards of the Midwest, where the 2004 election may be settled. The Indiana Democrat was governor before he was senator, and would bring some executive experience to a Kerry ticket.”
* Bob Graham — 7 to 1: “He’s the most popular figure in the most controversial state in the country.”
* Hillary Clinton — 15 to 1: “She she would bring instant money … to both parties and probably bring a lot more women in.

My money is still on Bayh.

President Bush Ahead Of Kerry In New Poll

Associated Press reports that a new poll finds President Bush tied with Kerry:

The Republican incumbent had the backing of 46 percent, Kerry 45 percent and Nader, the 2000 Green Party candidate who entered the race last month, was at 6 percent in the survey conducted for The Associated Press by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

The poll also showed a slight improvement in President Bush’s approval rating:

Bush’s job approval in the AP-Ipsos poll was 48 percent, with 49 percent disapproving, which is essentially the same as last month when 47 percent approved of the president’s job performance.

The AP-Ipsos poll of was conducted March 1-3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Bill Clinton as VP: Can He or Can't He?

In John Kerry’s search for the perfect running mate, some Democrats have raised an intriguing question: Could former two-term President Bill Clinton serve as vice president?

There has been quite a bit of discussion about this since Kerry basically became the Democratic nominee and people started speculating on his running mate.

Most of the discussion has centered around whether or not Clinton is eligible to take the position of Vice-President, and the 22nd and 12th amendments are the talking points:

The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution imposes a two-term limit on presidential candidates, but imposes no limit on the vice presidency. As vice president, however, Clinton could succeed the president upon death, incapacity, impeachment or resignation and serve a third term.

That leads to the 12th Amendment, which states that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of Vice President of the United States.”

Attorney Stephen Gillers claims that Clinton can, indeed, be VP, citing the 22nd amendment.

The first objection, the constitutional one, can be disposed of easily. The Constitution does not prevent Mr. Clinton from running for vice president. The 22nd Amendment, which became effective in 1951, begins: “No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice.”

Disputing Gillers’s claim is law proffesor Eugene Volokh:

I’m pretty skeptical, though: The 12th Amendment, after all, says (among other things) that

[N]o person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

The 22nd Amendment prevents Clinton from being President, so therefore under the 12th he can’t be Vice-President.

Gillers, responding to Volokh, said:

I admit that I should have addressed the 12th Am. point but I do not think it changes the argument.

The 12th Am. says: “But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice President of the United States.”

He said more, and so did plenty of other people. Read the rest at Volokh’s site and come to your own conclusion.

Unsecured voting machines in GA

Peter Sahlstrom, the Georgia Tech student who took photos Monday of 10 unsecured electronic voting machines lying around unlocked and unguarded in a student center lobby, has been nice enough to share a bunch of his photos with me…

You can view the full gallery here. The photos appear here with Peter’s permission; please do not republish them without his permission. And please visit Peter’s website! :)

[Cross-posted at BrendanLoy.com]

Edwards Makes it Official - He's Out

Though everyone knew last night that Edwards was no longer in the race, he made it official today:

On Wednesday, during a speech in his hometown, he ended his formal pursuit of the Democratic presidential nomination.

..

“From the beginning, this has never been my campaign, this has been your campaign and I am blessed to be a part of it,” he continued. But “today, I’ve decided to suspend my candidacy for the president of the United States.”

If you’re interested, his whole speech will be up on his official campaign site later tonight.

Hello From Paradise

Just checking in from vacation, logging on from an Internet cafe half a world away from Super Tuesday and all the associated wailing and gnashing. So you know, when you’re diving two or three times a day and spending the rest of your hours contemplating the trade winds, cocktail hour, and dinner, the Dean victory in Vermont seems about as significant as … well … it actually was.

Regardless, I just wanted to thank Michele for all she’s doing to hold down the fort and keep the cyberpresses pressing. She’ll get a T-Shirt from the islands, I promise. I have four more days in Paradise, then I’ll be back on the post.

Until then, enjoy the day, wherever you might be.

Kucinich: The Man Who Wouldn't Give Up

He’ll still trudge on.

Kucinich, undaunted despite his poor performance in Ohio and other states, planned to continue his campaign with a trip today to Florida, one of four Southern states holding contests next Tuesday. At a party at a nightclub on Cleveland’s near West Side, he said he will stay in the race “all the way to the convention” and highlight his differences with Kerry on Iraq, trade, health care and other issues.

“My voice is needed in this debate,” said Kucinich, who was trailing Kerry in early returns even in Cuyahoga County. “With fewer candidates, my contrast with Senator Kerry will be much more apparent.”

[via Political Wire]

Open Discussion: Kerry's Running Mate

Here’s your chance to make your predictions, discuss the choices and speculate about who Kerry will choose as his running mate.

Election Update – Two Surprises

The other surprise, although much less of one, was that Kerry most likely won Georgia. With 95% of precincts reporting as of this post, Kerry had 46.7% of the vote compared to 41.5% for Edwards. The exit polling in Georgia was interesting too.

Edwards fared well among voters who cared more about the issues than defeating Bush. This is consistent with polls in other states. Kerry seems to have locked up the Democratic nomination because his party thinks he is most likely to beat Bush, not because they like his stances.

More black voters backed Kerry than Edwards, but the majority of white voters supported Edwards.This is also consistent with other Southern polls. Given recent trends, Kerry can expect to receive over 80% of the black vote. However, Kerry has an uphill battle to win the votes of non-black Southerners.

After Edwards makes it official today, expect to see both President Bush and Senator Kerry spending more time focused on each other and (hopefully) their own issues.

The Election Moves Into a New Phase

Kerry pretty much claimed the Democrat nomination for President last night, taking nine out of ten states and effectively forcing Edwards to drop from the campaign.

Kerry got a call from his presidential rival last night:

President Bush called Mr. Kerry, of Massachusetts, to congratulate him on his victories. “I said, `I hope we have a great debate about the issues before the country,’ ” Mr. Kerry said, recounting his conversation with the president.

Scott Stanzel, a Bush campaign spokesman, said Mr. Bush told Mr. Kerry that he had won the nomination against a tough field and that he was looking forward to a spirited race.

Kerry also spoke to Edwards:

At 7:30, Mr. Edwards reached Mr. Kerry by phone to signal his intention to withdraw, without exactly saying it, said David Wade, Mr. Kerry’s spokesman, and the two men talked about how they “rode out the tough times” on the campaign trail.

Kerry may have played nice on the phone with Bush, but his victory speech set the tone for the campaign to come:

Tonight the message could not be clearer all across our country: Change is coming to America

Before us stretch long months of effort and challenge. We have no illusions about the Republican attack machine and what our opponents will try to do.

But I know we are equal to the task. I’m a fighter. For more than 30 years, I’ve been on the frontlines of the battle for fairness and mainstream American values.

And in 2004, we will tell the truth about what’s happened in our country, and we will fight to give America back its future and its hope.

There are powerful forces that want America to continue on its present path. And there are also millions of Americans hurt by policies that favor the few, who doubt whether government once again can work for them. Millions more live in fear everyday that they will lose their job, or lose their healthcare or lose their pensions.

My campaign is about replacing doubt with hope, and replacing fear with security.

You can read his entire speech here.

Minnesota Fat For Bush?

North Dakota Gov. Mike Johanns was in Minnesota last night campaigning for President Bush. Former Vice President Al Gore took the state in 2000 by only two and a half percent over Bush, and it’s clear the GOP thinks it’s very winnable this year, according to Johanns’ entry on the Bush-Cheney blog:

Minnesota is a very winnable state, and we’re not going to take anything for granted. We’re going to do for the President what was done for Governor Tim Pawlenty and Senator Norm Coleman, and that is win this state for a Republican.

Minnesota has an independent streak - ask Jesse Ventura - and 10 electoral votes. Another factor: Ralph Nader, who took 5 percent of the Minnesota vote in 2000 as a Green and who’s looking to make the ballot as an independent this year.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

Kerrifornia

All networks now projecting California for Kerry.

Latest Numbers

• CT - 90% reporting
  Kerry
  59%
  Edwards
  25%

• Maryland - 51% reporting
  
  Kerry
  61%
  Edwards
  24%
  
• Massachusetts - 68% reporting
  Kerry
  72%
  Edwards

• Georgia 0% reporting
  Kerry
  45%
  Edwards
  44%

• Vermont 74% reporting
  Dean
  58%
  Kerry
  33%
  
• Ohio - 63% reporting
  Kerry
  52%
  Edwards
  36%
  
• New York - 76% reporting
  Kerry
  60%
  Edwards
  20%
  
• Rhode Island - 99% reporting
  Kerry
  71%
  Edwards
  19%

Quotes from Kerry's speech

[Cross-posted at BrendanLoy.com]

“Thank you to voters from coast to coast who have truly made this a Super Tuesday.”

“A remarkably gracious… powerful statement by John Edwards tonight. There is no question that John Edwards bring a compelling voice to our party, great eloquence to the cause of working men and women all across our nation, and great promise for leadership in the years to come, and we thank him for what he has done over the course of this race.”

“In 2004, one united Democratic party, we can and we will win this election — and we will build one America.” (emphasis added)

Edwards a rival in recent months, but first and foremost, a friend. “He is a valiant champion of the values for which our party stands.”

Now praising and thanking Dean for bringing people into the process.

“Tonight the message could not be clearer, all across our country: change is coming to America.”

“I know that together, we are equal to this task. I am a fighter.” Blah blah, “battlefield” allusions. Did you know he served in Vietnam?

“In 2004, I pledge we will tell the truth about what has happened in our country, and we will fight to give America back its future and its hope.” Good line.

“The Bush Administration has run the most inept, arrogant, and ideological foreign policy in the history of our country, and we will reverse that course.” (I think I missed one adjective.)

“Bring it on! Bring it on! Bring it on!”

“George Bush, who promised to be a uniter, has become a great divider. Just last week, he proposed to amend the Constitution of the United States for political purpose. We say that he has no right to misuse the most precious document in our history to divide this nation and distract us from our goals. We resoundingly reject the politics of fear and distortion. We will instead, all across this nation throughout these next months, keep trust with Lincoln’s ideals of America as the last, best hope on Earth.”

Today, like in Vietnam era, “Americans are once again wondering if they can trust and believe the leadership of this country. Our campaign is about restoring that belief, and speaking honestly and straightforwardly to the American people … [and] building an America that is again a great light to all the world.”

Sharpton to drop out?

[Cross-posted at BrendanLoy.com]

Al Sharpton is talking on Larry King Live; says he’ll decide in the next day or so whether to drop out. Says he wants to make sure his constituents’ issues are represented to the greatest extent possible, whatever that entails.

Asked how enthusiastic he is for Kerry and what his strategy is, he says, “It’s easier for Edwards, who probably wants a job, than it is for me, who wants to get people jobs.” Heh. Heh heh.

Edwards Had the Nice Guy Curse

The voters treated Edwards like a potential date: Well, you’re a really nice guy.…which, as any guy knows, is the death knell.

John Edwards, whose 2004 presidential ambitions died here this evening, ran as a nice man, about whom many Democrats had no end of nice things to say. He was called charismatic, likable, polished and, to his frustration, “vice presidential.”

Yet for all the positive things people said about this candidate and the positive message he ran on, he could not persuade most Democratic voters that he was the party’s most plausible nominee against President Bush this fall.

Eh, they always want to date the guys that will make another suitor jealous.

New York Projection

Fox News Network is now projecting Kerry to win New York.

Updated Numbers

From CNN:

Fox Calls Georgia Wrong

According to all other news sources, Edwards is winning Georgia.

Latest numbers, with 23% reporting, has Edwards leading 46% to 43%.

Edwards Speaks - Doesn't Quit

Edwards just spoke live from Atlanta. While he didn’t quit the race, sources say he will do so tomorrow.

Update:

Edwards will announce his decision Wednesday in Raleigh, North Carolina, according to a campaign aide.

AP: Edwards to quit

So says CNN.

He’s speaking now.

UPDATE: Talking about his campaign in the past tense: “We have been the Little Engine that could, and I am proud of what we have done together, you and I. And so I think all of you, and everyone across America who has joined in this cause to change America.”

Not conceding officially just now. But he’s clearly done.

Wolf Blitzer says he’ll make it official in Raleigh tomorrow.

Jeff Greenfield says we should modify “Dated Dean, Married Kerry” to “Dated Dean, Married Kerry, Thought About Fooling Around With Edwards, Then Came Home.”

CNN: Kerry will win Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maryland

No numbers yet, just projections.

MoveOn.org to Counter Bush's Ad Blitz

A Democratic-leaning online group will run television commercials in 17 presidential battleground states starting Thursday to counter President Bush’s multimillion-dollar advertising blitz that will begin the same day.

This $1.9 million, five-day effort will be its most far-reaching. The ads will ensure that there is a Democratic presence on the TV airwaves in key states as Bush begins to make his case for re-election.

In most states, MoveOn will run a new ad that takes Bush to task for his economic policies, including overtime pay and outsourcing jobs. In others, the group will run a previously released spot that shows images of children toiling on a grocery line and in a tire factory coupled with the text, “Guess who’s going to pay off President Bush’s $1 trillion deficit?”

Ads will run over five days at medium levels on broadcast stations in 67 media markets in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The television industry estimates that the average viewer in each media market would see a MoveOn spot about five times during the group’s ad run.

“We’re really stepping up our efforts to make sure our members’ voices are heard,” Wes Boyd, the group’s founder, said Tuesday. “We are trying to get these messages out about these fundamental issues.”

FOX News

Ohio Numbers

Unclear on how many precincts are reporting, but the numbers are devastating to Edwards’ campaign.

Ohio Votes %
Kerry: 462 votes/53%

Edwards:229 votes/27%

Edwards to Quit?

Sources say that Edwards is flying home to North Carolina tonight and will make an annoucement from his headquarters.

Early Tallies

Early numbers from CNN

CBS: Kerry takes Ohio

CBS News exit polls project John Kerry will win the Democratic primary in Ohio. He also leads in Georgia.

CNN is also calling Ohio.

Fox: Kerry Takes Georgia

Fox News has declared Kerry the winner in Georgia.

YARRRRRHHHH!!!

AP says Dean wins Vermont, according to NPR.

Kerry “leading” in Georgia.

Exit Polls

Exit Polls were conducted for AP and the TV networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.

• About a third of the voters in Super Tuesday states said the economy and jobs were the top issues in the election.

• A majority of voters, about six in 10, said they were convinced foreign trade is more likely to take jobs from their states, while only two in 10 said they thought foreign trade would add jobs in their states.

• About a third of all voters in the Super Tuesday states put the highest priority on a candidate’s ability to beat Bush.

• About half of voters in the Super Tuesday primaries said they were angry at the president and another third said they were dissatisfied with him.

• About six in 10 voters made up their minds about whom to vote for more than a week ago.

Super Tuesday Overview

Better late than never.

California
370 Delegates
Polls close at 8pm (PST), 11pm (EST)
Registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters may participate.

SurveyUSA 2/27/04 - 2/29/04
Kerry 61%
Edwards 24%
Other/Undecided 15%

Field Poll 2/18/04 - 2/22/04
Kerry 60%
Edwards 19%
Kucinich 3%
Sharpton 2%
Undecided 11%

Los Angeles Times 2/18/04 - 2/22/04
Kerry 56
Edwards 24
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 1

Connecticut
49 Delegates
Polls close at 8pm (EST)
Only registered Democrats can participate.

SurveyUSA 2/26/04 - 2/28/04
Kerry 64%
Edwards 22%
Other 11%
Undecided 3%

Georgia
86 Delegates
Polls close at 7pm (EST)
Any voter can participate

Journal-Constitution/Zogby 2/28/04 - 3/1/04
Kerry 51%
Edwards 37%
Sharpton 5%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 4%

American Research Group 2/27/04 - 2/28/04
Kerry 48%
Edwards 38%
Sharpton 4%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 7%

Maryland
69 Delegates
Polls close at 8pm (EST)
Only registered Democrats can participate.

American Research Group 2/27/04 - 2/28/04
Kerry 46%
Edwards 35%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 11%

Mason-Dixon 2/23/04 - 2/25/04
Kerry 62%
Edwards 20%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 13%

Massachusetts
93 Delegates
Polls close at 8pm (EST)
Registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters can participate.

No Public Polls

Minnesota
72 Delegates
Caucus from 7pm to 8pm (CST), 8pm to 9pm (EST)
Any voter can participate.

No public polls

New York
236 delegates
Polls close at 9pm (EST)

Marist College 2/28/04 - 2/29/04
Kerry 69%
Edwards 12%
Sharpton 5%
Kucinich 2%
Undecided 9%

American Research Group 2/22/04 - 2/24/04
Kerry 54%
Edwards 21%
Sharpton 8%
Kucinich 2%
Undecided 11%

SurveyUSA 2/27/04 - 2/29/04
Kerry 61%
Edwards 20%
Sharpton 9%
Other/Undecided 10%

Ohio
140 Delegates
Polls close at 7:30pm (EST)
Any voter can participate.

American Research Group 2/22/04 - 2/24/04
Kerry 47%
Edwards 26%
Kucinich 11%
Sharpton 1%
Undecided 12%

Rhode Island
21 Delegates
Polls close at 9pm (EST)
Registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters may participate.

SurveyUSA 2/23/04 - 2/25/04
Kerry 66%
Edwards 23%
Other 8%
Undecided 2%

Brown University 2/7/04 - 2/9/04
Kerry 70
Dean 11
Edwards 9
Clark 4
Undecided 4

Vermont
15 Delegates
Polls close at 7pm (EST)
Any voter can participate.

No public polls

Electronic Voting Troubles

Bryan Preston gives us the lowdown on the trouble with electronic voting in his home state of Maryland, at the OpEd page.

Other Issues and Races

Some of the states voting today have other issues at stake:

• CALIFORNIA:

Senate — Four candidates sought the GOP nomination to take on two-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Recent polls showed former California Secretary of State Bill Jones favored.

House — GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher was favored to beat former Rep. Bob Dornan in a district that includes wealthy parts of Los Angeles and Orange counties.

Bond measure — Proposition 57 would authorize the state to borrow $15 billion to help plug the state’s huge budget gap. The measure, which had the strong backing of GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, was paired with a measure mandating a balanced budget.

Genetic crops — First-in-the-nation measure would prohibit genetically modified plants and animals from being raised or kept in Northern California’s Mendocino County. Supporters say success could galvanize similar movements from Vermont to Hawaii. The biotech industry outspent supporters 5-to-1.

Recall election — A new prosecutor fighting big timber in California redwood country faced a tough recall race. Humboldt County District Attorney Paul Gallegos sued Pacific Lumber, claiming it submitted fraudulent environmental impact data that enabled the company to reap millions in profits. The recall campaign was funded by Pacific Lumber.

Suburban sprawl — Ballot measure in San Diego County would attempt to limit suburban sprawl in one of the nation’s hottest housing markets.

Big box stores — Residents of Contra Costa County in the San Francisco Bay area were considering a referendum to block “big box” stores that also sell groceries. The referendum targets Wal-Mart, which has opened more than 1,500 Supercenters across the country.

• OHIO

Senate — GOP Sen. George Voinovich and Democratic challenger Eric Fingerhut, a state senator, faced perennial single-digit finishers.

House — Rep. Dennis Kucinich, the Democratic presidential candidate who is allowed to run for re-election, was expected to win his primary with ease. Four Republicans were also seeking the nomination.

Legislature — Terry Anderson, former chief Middle East correspondent for The Associated Press who was held hostage for nearly seven years in Lebanon, had no opposition in the Democratic primary for a state Senate seat. But he faces an uphill battle in the fall against incumbent Joy Padgett in the reliably Republican district near Athens. Padgett had no primary opposition.

• MARYLAND:

Senate — Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski faced token opposition in her bid for the nomination to a fourth term. Nine candidates sought the GOP nomination, including state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, a former Wall Street bond salesman.

• GEORGIA:

State flag — Voters were settling the long-running flag debate by choosing between two flags in a nonbinding referendum. One is the current banner, which echoes the “Stars and Bars” of the Confederacy. The other is the flag adopted in 2001 that replaced the Confederate battle emblem with the state seal on a field of blue and a panel of Georgia’s historical flags.

• MASSACHUSETTS:

Legislature — A special election for a state Senate district was being seen as a test of the gay marriage debate. The election was to fill the seat left vacant by Cheryl Jacques, an openly gay lawmaker who resigned to lead the Human Rights Campaign, a national gay-rights organization. Republican state Rep. Scott Brown, a gay marriage opponent, was running against Democrat Angus McQuilken, who supports gay marriage.

• VERMONT

Secession — Killington, the ski-resort town whose residents are angry about high property taxes, voted to secede and join lower-taxing New Hampshire. The final decision rests with lawmakers in both states.

[Information from AP]

Bush seeks $1 million for transition

CNN

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush is making an unprecedented request to use up to $1 million budgeted for a possible presidential transition to train top officials who would join his administration if he should win a second term.
The proposal, which will require Congress’ approval, is the first time a president has sought to use public transition funds to prepare officials to enter a re-elected administration, White House officials and others say.
Critics say the money should come from existing agency budgets, especially as Bush is proposing to curb spending for many programs because of soaring federal deficits.
The White House is defending the request as a way to cope with the spate of departures that usually marks an incumbent’s second term.
Officials say the money would be used for briefing materials and other training expenses for which agencies have not budgeted.

“We’re trying to use a modest amount of resources to make sure they are trained and prepared,” said White House budget office spokesman Chad Kolton.
He said new officials “need to be walked through what the parameters are, where things stand with ongoing projects.”
Democrats and experts on presidential transitions say the funds should not be used when a sitting president is re-elected. (Primary season update: Super Tuesday)
“It isn’t really forming a government” like newly elected presidents must do, said Charles O. Jones, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist who has studied presidential transitions.
“There are all kinds of existing apparatus in the White House, in departments and agencies, for orientation sessions.”
Congress routinely provides money every four years for office expenses, briefings and other potential costs incurred by a president-elect and his or her aides waiting to move into the White House and other federal offices.
Bush has proposed $7.7 million for a possible transition. He also asked Congress to amend the Presidential Transition Act to allow using up to $1 million from that amount “for training and briefings for incoming appointees associated with the second term of an incumbent president.”
Some 3,000 political appointees are in the executive branch, said Paul Light, a professor of government at New York University who has studied presidential transitions.
“It’s unbelievable that the same budget proposal that asks Congress to cut money for education, veterans and port security would propose to set aside $1 million to take care of themselves,” said Sen. Patty Murray of Washington state, top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations subcommittee that oversees White House spending.

Kerry Takes Campaign to the Senate Floor

Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry touted his credentials as a lifelong hunter to deliver a scathing rebuke on Tuesday against President Bush’s opposition to a ban on assault weapons.

…

“When he ran for president in 2000, President Bush promised the American people that he would work to renew the assault weapons ban. But now, under pressure, he is walking away from that commitment,” the Massachusetts senator said in his first Senate speech this year.

You can read Kerry’s entire statement at his official campaign site.

It's A Hard Road for Senators

Under the Headline GOP Plans Votes to Put Democrats on the Spot, the Washington Post Reports on the vicissitudes of running for President while still working in the Senate. The Leading paragraph:

Republicans plan to use Congress to pull Sen. John F. Kerry and vulnerable Democrats into the cultural wars over gay rights, abortion and guns, envisioning a series of debates and votes that will highlight the candidates’ positions on divisive issues, according to congressional aides and GOP officials.

Though much later in the article the authors note:

GOP leaders are not specifically scheduling votes to influence the election, he said [congressional staffer Eric Ueland], but they are aware of the political calendar and the potential impact of congressional votes. “We’ve got a lot of things to get done,” Ueland said. “If they have resonance with the campaign, that’s an added benefit.”

Anyone see a contradiction here?

Dean stops the sweep!

According to Slate, Kerry is winning everywhere — except Vermont:

CT: Kerry 63, Edwards 26, Dean 5
GA: Kerry 50, Edwards 39, Sharpton 7
MD: Kerry 59, Edwards 28, Sharpton 4
MA: Kerry 75, Edwards 16, Dean 3, Kucinich 3
NY: Kerry 61, Edwards 21, Sharpton 10
OH: Kerry 58, Edwards 30, Kucinich 10
RI: Kerry 70, Edwards 21, Dean 5
VT: Dean 63, Kerry 33, Kucinich 3

Recall that Edwards isn’t on the ballot in Vermont. Oh well, hey, at least Hollerin’ Howard finally gets to win a primary! (D.C. doesn’t count; non-binding, no delegates.)

No numbers yet from California, and of course, none from Minnesota because it’s a caucus. (All numbers unofficial, preliminary, etc.)

Time to start playing the “when will Edwards concede?” game. Will he wait until Minnesota’s results are in? Until California’s polls are closed? Until tomorrow? Until next week?

Edwards Attacked from the Past

The Hill is reporting that John Edwards loaned $30,000 to a judge who was deciding a case in which Edwards’ wife was counsel for the plantiff. I am not sure where this story came from and why it is just now coming out. Maybe someone is trying to put the nail in Edwards’ coffin. The story probably won’t hold much water because there is no evidence that either Edwards or the Judge made any effort to hide the transaction.

Big Kerry leads: early exits

Early, unofficial exit-poll results:

Kerry up 11 in Georgia;
Kerry up 25 in Ohio;
Kerry up 38 in Maryland.

It seems to me, this means Edwards is doomed.

Candidate Schedules

Edwards

Our supporters will gather with Senator Edwards at 7:00 PM in Atlanta for an election night party.
Georgia Tech Hotel & Convention Center, 800 Spring Street NW.

Kerry

7:00 pm West Hartford, CT
Connecticut supporters of John Kerry plan to gather at the Prospect Cafe to watch Super Tuesday returns come in.

7:00 pm Washington, DC
John Kerry will host a Super Tuesday Election Night Party at the Old Post Office Pavilion at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue. This event is open to the public - please join us!

Kucinich

subject to change WITHOUT NOTICE

4:00 - 7:00 p.m. ET
Polling
Campaign contact: Darlene White, (216) 458-7120
Site # 1: Woodbury Elementary School
15400 South Woodland Ave.
Shaker Heights, Ohio
Site # 2: Holy Trinity, Ward 2
3808 East 131st Street
Cleveland, Ohio
Site # 3: Corlett Library, Ward 2
3830 East 131st
Cleveland, Ohio

Cleveland, Ohio
7:30 p.m. ET
Campaign Watch Party
Club Moda
1871 West 25th
Campaign contacts: Tia Sanford, (216) 536-3576 and Lea Tolls, (216) 337-7215

Al Sharpton is expected in New York

NYT has an interesting article in the Kerry/Edwards relationship

… Three years ago when, at Mr. Kerry’s suggestion, the two had dinner at Olives, a trendy restaurant near the White House, to swap stories after Al Gore passed over both in picking a running mate. Each told associates he enjoyed the other’s company, but it was not quite the beginning of a beautiful relationship.
Now, as the presidential campaign has narrowed to a race between the two senators on the eve of the coast-to-coast Super Tuesday primaries, strains between them are growing evident.
Their relationship has become a source of speculation among Democrats, not only because they are rivals in the primaries but also because party leaders are increasingly entertaining the notion of a Kerry-Edwards ticket.
They have at times seemed chummy, as they did during Thursday’s debate in Los Angeles, when Mr. Edwards gently touched Mr. Kerry on the shoulder during a point of disagreement. But they have also seemed distant, as was the case on Sunday in New York, when they shook hands after a particularly contentious televised exchange and went their separate ways with few words……..

“Chemistry is an elusive thing; you never know until you try,” said Senator Evan Bayh, the Indiana Democrat, a friend of Mr. Edwards. “I’m sure that whatever the substantive or stylistic differences now, they could work their way through that for the common good.”

“I really don’t think either would pick the other,” said Senator Orrin G. Hatch, the Utah Republican, adding, “Well, they might if they’re forced to.”
Asked how the two Democrats get along, Mr. Hatch replied: “I don’t think particularly well. Kerry is not the warmest person, and Edwards just hasn’t been here.”

Electronic voting problems in CA, MD, GA

“Some voters turned away from polls,” the San Diego Union-Tribune reports:

Some voters found themselves turned away from their polling places early this morning as poll workers grappled with the new electronic voting system.

It was not clear how widespread the problem was, but voters who went to at least seven polling places between 7 and 8 a.m. said they were told to either come back later or to vote at another polling place.

There are also some problems being reported in Maryland and Georgia. More here.

Gallup November Analysis: The Economy

Gallup has an interesting examination of how Americans on a state-by-state basis see the economy, and how that may impact the election in November.

Requires RealPlayer. Click here to view.

Mr. Kerry Goes to Washington

The Hill is reporting that John Kerry will return to Washington today to vote on critical gun control amendments. At issue, maintaining the assault weapons band and closing the “gun-show” loop hole. Get the Full Story.

Endorsements

Recent Kerry endorsements:

3/1
University of Minnesota Daily
West Central Minnesota Tribune
Cleveland Plain Dealer

2/29
Thumbs Up For Kerry San Francisco Chronicle
The Akron Beacon Journal
St. Paul Pioneer Press
The Baltimore Sun
Newsday
Boston Herald
New York Daily News
Buffalo News
The Albany Time Union

Others:

The Atlanta Journal Constitution
The Akron Beacon Journal
The Los Angeles Daily News
The San Francisco Chronicle
San Bernardino Daily Sun
Cleveland Plain Dealer

New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey
Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano

Recent endorsements for Edwards include:

Mesabi Daily News (MN)
Cincinnati Enquirer
Modesto Bee (CA)
Columbia Univeristy Spectator (NY)

WP: Early Primaries Hurt Edwards

The Washington Post suggests that the biggest hurdle John Edwards has faced came “…two years ago, when the Democratic National Committee, with little fanfare or dissent, endorsed a schedule for the 2004 nominating contest that was earlier and more compact than ever.”

Rest of the story here.

Massachussetts Governor Predicts Kerry Win, Loss

Governor Mitt Romney predicts that John Kerry will win today, but lose in November, that he will meet the same fate in November as former Massachussetts Governor Michael Dukakis in 1988.

Georia Projection

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV tracking poll conducted by Zogby International is projecting Kerry 51%, Edwards 37% in Georgia. (no direct link available yet)

Kerry Looks For Sweep, Says Belly is Burning

AP

Democratic front-runner John Kerry, looking for a sweep of 10 states that could end John Edwards’ bid for the presidential nomination, said Tuesday there should be no doubt that he has the “fire in the belly” to spend the next nine months trying to oust President Bush.

“Boy, wait til you see the fire in my belly. I didn’t win 18 out of 20 caucuses and primaries so far because I don’t have the fire in the belly,” Kerry told “The Early Show” on CBS. “And people who know me well know that fire is raging, and on behalf of the working people of America I intend to make sure that we restore fairness in our country again.”

Some antacids ought to take care of that, Senator.

Minnesota Independents Have More Than a Candidate at Stake

In addition to voting on a presidential candidate, Minnesota Independents will also face the difficult choice of voting for…

A party mascot.

They’ve settled on seven options and given reasons for each:

• A bison, which is described as a uniquely American animal that is a symbol of independence and perseverance.

• A hawk, which observes from above the fray and has keen eyesight to “spot vermin that invariably expose themselves for an easy meal.”

• A roaring lion, which as “the king of the jungle is also the king of political parties.”

• A loon, Minnesota’s state bird.

• A moose, which “has little to fear from other predators.”

• A white buffalo, which symbolizes sacrifice, unity, harmony, balance and transition.

• A wild boar, which is described as nimble, intelligent and complete with “a great sense of hearing that is missing in the political world.”

There are no early polls available for this vote, but word has it that the wild boar is the favorite.

We’ll keep you posted as soon as the early results start coming in.

Super Tuesday schedule

From The Green Papers, tomorrow’s poll-closing times…

Georgia: 7:00 p.m. EST
Vermont: 7:00 p.m. EST
Ohio: 7:30 p.m EST
Connecticut: 8:00 p.m. EST
Massachuetts: 8:00 p.m. EST
Maryland: 8:00 p.m. EST
New York: 9:00 p.m. EST
Rhode Island: 9:00 p.m. EST
California: 11:00 p.m. EST

The Green Papers has no specific time info on the Minnesota caucuses, but I read somewhere that those go from 8:00 until 9:00 EST.

The schedule sets us up, probably, for an early resolution to any suspense. Edwards’s #1 “must-win” state, Georgia — also the place he is having his “victory party” — closes its polls early, so we’ll probably know right away if he’s doomed. Crucial Ohio has a time slot all to itself, also quite early. So two of Edwards’s best chances for a win (according to conventional wisdom, if not necessarily the polls) are among the first three states to close their polls.

Unpredictable Minnesota will probably report its results during the no man’s land time slot in between the East Coast and California (appropriately enough), but if Kerry has swept everything back east by then, it won’t even matter if Edwards wins in MN — the press will already have written the story of the night, and only a California upset would have the heft to rewrite that story once it’s written.

Looking for a VP?

Campaigns and Elections Mag. showing the popular VP choices.

DEMOCRATIC VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION 2004

TOP TIER CHOICES:
Sen. John Edwards (NC), 4 to 1 (20% chance)
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance)
Gov. Ed Rendell (PA), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Evan Bayh (IN), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance)
Gen. Wesley Clark, 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance)

Super Tuesday Poll Watch

While almost everyone is betting on Kerry winning all ten states, we’ll still keep track of the polls.

ARG:

• Georgia: Kerry 48% Edwards: 38%
• Maryland: Kerry 48 Edwards 46
• New York: Kerry 58 Edwards 21
• Ohio: Kerry 47 Edwards 36

No numbers from Massachusetts, but Kerry is considered a lock in his home state.

It’s safe to say Kerry will take Vermont, as Edwards isn’t even on the ballot in that state.

No numbers from Connecticut, but keep in mind that it’s “a funny state.”

“Connecticut is a funny state. We have had some surprises on presidential primary days in the past, and I am thinking maybe this is the kind of year where we’ll see another surprise in Connecticut,” said state Sen. Christopher S. Murphy, D-Southington, an Edwards supporter.

No polls in Minnesota, where they will be holding caucuses tomorrow.

Rhode Island, which all the candidates have basically ignored, is not expecting a huge turnout.

Kennedy Blesses Kerry

Ted Kennedy:

“I respect John Edwards and I’ve worked with him. But this is John Kerry’s time.”

From an interview with R News in Rochester, NY.

Poll Positions: New York

Sen. John Kerry leads Sen. John Edwards 63% to 21% in New York, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll. Rev. Al Sharpton staggers in at 5% in his home state and Dennis Kucinich follows with 3%.

73% of Kerry voters and 54% of those who will vote for Edwards said their minds were mad up; however, 46% of those leaning towards Edwards have not completely made up their minds.

Out and About with the Candidates

There’s now less than 24 hours before most of the Super Tuesday poll open. Whether tomorrow is actually super or not remains to be seen, but Kerry and Edwards are out doing their best to make the day theirs.

Kerry’s calendar for today:

• Baltimore, MD
  Rally with Baltimore Democrats

• Columbus, OH -
  Rally with Ohio Democrats

• Atlanta, Georgia
  Rally with Georgia Democrats

Kerry will be in Florida tomorrow, where he will hold a Super Tuesday Election Night party in Ybor City.

Edwards will spend most of the day in Ohio and then move on to Georgia tonight:

• Toledo, OH
  Campaign rally

• Vandalia, OH
  Campaign rally

• Cleveland, OH
  Campaign rally

The big event is tonight in Macon, GA:

John Edwards is Rocking Georgia!

He will, errr, rock out with Hootie and the Blowfish in a special concert/rally.

No word on where Edwards will be tomorrow night when the polls close.

USC debate highlights

As mentioned here earlier, I flew out to L.A. and blogged live from USC during last week’s Democratic presidential debate. Here are some photo and audio highlights…

Audioblogging the campaigners: Listening in on Dean, Edwards, Kucinich, and Kerry supporters — and an interview with independent candidate “Chris P. Carrot.” (1:31, 713 KB)

The Deaniacs chant: “Annoy the media! Vote for Dean!” (8 sec., 88 KB)

Kerry’s supporters chant: “Whose house? Our house! What house? The White House! John… Kerry! President… Kerry!”

The Edwards people answer. “L.A. loves Edwards! L.A. loves Edwards!”

Kucinich, of course, had the funkiest supporters.

Break-dancing for Kucinich.

Howard Dean and the youth vote. Crazy kids!

Presidential vegetables: Chris P. Carrot and his runningmate, Colonel Corn.

A woman dressed as a “John Kerry Flip-Flop.”

A puppeteer on stilts, identified as the “corporate media,” controls his puppets, Kerry and Edwards, whose answers to every question were either “six of one” or “half a dozen of the other.” (sound clip - 58 sec., 636 KB)

John Edwards gives his supporters the thumbs-up after the debate.

Edwards speaks to the crowd while his wife looks on.

Click here for MUCH more!