The Answer Is "Yes"

The BBC wonders “Will the Dean-iacs back Kerry?” Well, I feel relatively confident that Bush won’t get their vote. Must mean a big surge for Nader! (Via ED)

It's About The Oil

John Kerry has a plan to reduce your gasoline prices … read more at Reuters. (Via ED)

Cheney AtTAX

Dick Cheney is going after Kerry on tax cuts, “portraying the Democratic presidential candidate as a chronic tax hiker whose pledges to maintain tax cuts for the middle class cannot be trusted.” (That line comes courtesy the Washington Post). If that’s not enough story for you, visit the New York Times.

The Kerry response: That the administration had sprung Cheney from “an undisclosed location and brought him out to attack me.”

Am I having fun yet?

Its About The P-Op

It’s all about the background, actually, and the Reagan administration understood the art of the photo op image better than anyone. Now the LA Times (via ED) tells us that Kerry, too, has “learned the fine art of the photo op.”

But can anyone forget him on the Harley?

Late To The Party

The LA Times is reporting the use of “attack ads” on the Web (via ED) … a trend we noted to Command Post readers some time ago.

Election Projection

Election Projection is back, and some new stats are up.

Current Projected Tally:

Electoral Votes	Bush 290	Kerry 248
Popular Vote	Bush 49.77%	Kerry 49.23%

Scott Elliot does note some interesting things about this current data:

Kerry’s lofty numbers were falsely inflated by flattering news coverage and a non-active opponent in George W. Bush. The political climate has changed on both accounts.

Read the rest and check out the comments as well.

Bush-Kerry Smackdown

This week’s Toast-O-Meter is done. It’s a weekly news roundup and assessent of the ongoing bid for the White House.

Showing Feelings of an almost Human Nature

…This Will Not Do. as the Pink Floyd song goes.

Inspired by a comment on another post, I found some reports via Google - the earliest dating only hours ago - about George W. Bush’s presentation at the 60th annual dinner of the Radio and Television Correspondents Association. This one’s from the Adelaide Advertiser :

US President George W. Bush made a joke about weapons of mass destruction not being found in Iraq at a late-night dinner for Amerian journalists yesterday.

Mr Bush poked fun at himself and other members of his administration at the annual White House dinner for Radio and Television correspondents in Washington.

It goes on to say :

In one, he showed a picture of him down on all fours rummaging under a desk in the Oval Office, saying “Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be somewhere.”

It was quickly followed by another similar picture. “Nope, no weapons over there,” he said.

In his four years on the national and international stage, Mr Bush has often been ridiculed for his tendency to muddle sentences and confuse words - and even invent new ones.

He made this tendency the butt of another of his jokes, saying: “Fortunately my verbal phonation and electrocution have improved.”
[…]
His slide show segued into a sombre ending, showing a group of special forces troops in Afghanistan at the site where they buried a piece of the fallen World Trade Centre in commemoration of the dead from September 11.

The reaction from the humour-impaired {sorry, my objectivity went out for a tea-break} public has been predictable. From Scotsman :

Many CNN viewers emailed the news network to complain at Mr Bush’s “tasteless” remarks.

One wrote: “How can a thinking, caring human being joke about the lies that led to body bags and broken young men and women? I was appalled”.

Another wrote: “It was tasteless and childish. It shows the true man - or child in his case. Why didn’t he throw in a few September 11 jokes as well?”

And another said: “I wonder if the families of our soldiers patrolling there today, who died there yesterday, who may die there today, thought it was funny.”

Parenthetically, I thought Donald Rumsfeld’s comment was the most apposite. Also from the same article:

Defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked about the incident in a press briefing later, but ducked the question.

He said: “To know what I would think, I would have to be there.”

Remember when J.F.Kerry described one of the people sworn to “take a bullet” for him if need be as a “Son-Of-A-Bitch”? Then excused himself as only joking? Rumsfeld does, and what the Kerry team said about it afterwards. As reported in the New York Post :

The Sen. John Kerry team seems more than a mite embarrassed the presidential wannabe cursed out a Secret Service agent as “that son of a bitch” after colliding with him while snowboarding last week. Asked if that’s appropriate language, Kerry’s spokesman, Michael Meehan, tried to wriggle out of answering on Fox News Channel’s “Hannity and Colmes.” Quoth Meehan: “I don’t know. I wasn’t there . . . it’s a hypothetical I’m not interested in . . . I wasn’t there. Were you?”

Rumsfeld has a dry, laconic, and subtle wit. As I’ve said before, he’d be right at home here in Oz.

One thing’s for sure: no-one could possibly imagine J.F.Kerry, nor Jacques Chirac for that matter, ever, under any circumstances, self-deprecatingly and deliberately poking fun at themselves. Some would say they parody themselves unconsciously {Dammit Objectivity, Come back here at once! Come back or this article will go in the Op Ed section!} Sorry about that.

UPDATE : You can go and see what those that served in Iraq think on this issue. And to see the remarks in context, you can look at excerpts in a short video.
(Hat Tip : reader Robin)

Dead Heat

A Fox News poll shows Bush and Kerry tied in the race for president at 44% each.

With Nader in the picture, it’s Bush 43%, Kerry 42%, and Nader 3%, giving credence to the “Nader is going to ruin the Democrats” theory.

A telling statistic from the poll:

By a margin of 43 to 36 percent voters think Bush will win in November.

More stats:

* A 65 percent majority approves of the Bush administration’s response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and by almost two-to-one Americans continue to support the U.S. having taken military action against Iraq.

• [O]ver six in 10 think it is likely terrorists will try to influence the outcome of this year’s presidential election with a major attack on U.S. soil later this year.

• As voters gear up for eight months of campaigning, more than twice as many say they are “dreading it” as say they are “looking forward to it.” That feeling of dread may in part be caused by the tone of the campaigning to date, which more Americans describe as “rude and disrespectful” (40 percent) than as “polite and respectful” (29 percent).

Count me in that “dreading it” category, because I’m certainly in the 40%.

Dick Morris On The Ides Of March

From The Hill, via ED:

The moment of political victory or defeat most often passes unnoticed by journalists and the insiders of the respective political campaigns.

It is only in the retrospective of history that it becomes clear, and, even then, it is often distorted by the myopia of historians.

But March 2004 gives every sign of going down in history as the crucial month of the presidential campaign. It will, very possibly, be recorded as the month in which Sen. John Kerry lost the election.

Why? According to Morris, many reasons … focusing on fundraising … taking time to ski … attack ads … all of which contributed to losing the momentum while the Bush campaign moved to Campaign Defcon Level 5. Don’t listen to me, though … we post ‘em here so you can see for yourself. Judge Morris as you will.

Rasmussen Tips To Bush

While pollsters like John Zogby have the presidential race either dead even or slightly favoring President Bush in a three-way race, the Rasmussen Report says Bush continues to build a lead over Sen. John Kerry even without Ralph Nader factored in.

As of yesterday, Rasmussen has it 48-45 Bush. In a week, Bush picked up four percent while Kerry lost a tick. (Kerry also jumped four points from his March 18 low of 43 percent.)

“Some Other Candidate” - they don’t ask respondents if they support Nader by name - gets 4 percent.

Rasmussen breaks it down further:

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Americans say that Bush is a better leader than Kerry while 33% take the opposite view.

Among those who use the Internet on a regular basis (several times a week or more), 50% say they will vote for Bush while 42% pick Kerry. Among those who are not on-line regularly, Kerry is favored 48% to 44%.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

This Week's Campaign '04 Linkfest and Handicapiing is done.

PoliBlog’s Toast-O-Meter is up.

Picking A Partner

The BBC offers a perspective on the selection of a Veep, and compares the process, only half-jokingly, to that of picking the Pope. (Via ED)

Nader Debater

Ralph Nader discusses the new criteria for getting in on the presidential debates:

The new Debate Commission’s criteria are that a candidate must be on enough states’ ballots to be able theoretically to win the electoral college, and must either garner 5% voter support or be supported by a majority of citizens in polls who want him/her to be on the Presidential debates.

Nader’s already at five percent or more in the polls. Even if he slips a couple of points, he could still earn the right to get on stage with the president and Sen. John Kerry if “a majority of citizens” who are polled say they want him there.

This is a potentially a huge problem for Kerry.

The more you look at the numbers, the easier it is to see that Nader’s simply not going away and his profile is going to increase, not decrease, before election day. The debates will become a story in and of themselves and Nader will be an integral part of that story.

Stay tuned.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

Kerry and Local Donations

I live in a small community. I have yet to meet one strong John Kerry fan. I have met many people who may vote for him, but they will do so because they dislike President Bush, not out of respect for Senator Kerry.

Boots & Sabers found a tool that allowed me to see how well my experience represents my community. By simply entering my address, the Fundrace 2004 robot looks up the public donation records of everyone near me. If you check on your own neighbors, and I know you will, be patient. Even in the wee hours of the night, it took a few minutes for a response.

I was surprised by the results. There were many more donations for Bush than for the Democrats. This was not that surprising, most Republican money comes from small donations while the majority of Democratic funding comes from special interest groups (e.g., unions) and liberal millionaires. In addition, there were quite a few donations for various Democratic nominees (Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, and Dick Gephardt to be precise).

The surprise was that the nearest person who donated to John Kerry lived over 75 miles away from my house. I live in a battleground state. If the lack of local enthusiasm for Kerry’s campaign continues through November, he will have an uproad battle to win this state.

John Kerry Endorsed by Zapatero, Mohamad, and Kim Jong-il

John Kerry has received endorsements from:

1. Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero, leader of the Spanish Socialist Party. Via the ShortNews website:

- - - - - - -

Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero, leader of the Spanish Socialist Party and victor in the recent national elections, has given his endorsement to John Kerry’s US leadership bid, saying “I think Kerry will win. I want Kerry to win.”

- - - - - - -

2. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Via the Little Green Footballs website:

- - - - - - -

PUTRAJAYA, Malaysia - Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad endorsed Democratic contender John Kerry in the U.S. presidential race Thursday, saying he would keep the world safer than President Bush.

“I think Kerry would be much more willing to listen to the voices of people and of the rest of the world,” Mahathir, who retired in October after 22 years in power, told The Associated Press in an interview.

“But in the U.S., the Jewish lobby is very strong, and any American who wants to become president cannot change the policy toward Palestine radically,” he said.

- - - - - - -

3. Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s dictatorial “Dear Leader.” Via Tacitus:

- - - - - - -

“North Korea is waiting for its own regime change — in D.C.,” said Pang Zhongying, professor of international relations at China’s Nankai University.

In return for shutting down its weapons program, the North wants to get the most generous possible trade terms, aid and security guarantees. Pyongyang is betting that by stalling, it can achieve a better deal with a new administration, analysts say. Nor does it want to grace President Bush with a diplomatic victory that might help re-elect him.

“I expect North Korea to make certain compromises in the six-party talks to keep them going,” said Li Dunqiu, a North Korea expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “But don’t expect any real progress before the U.S. elections.”

- - - - - - -

Not surprisingly, Kerry has asked that foreign leaders STOP endorsing him, per the Drudge Report:

- - - - - - -

KERRY: NO FOREIGN ENDORSEMENTS, PLEASE… Kerry Foreign Policy Advisor Rand Beers issued the following statement today: ‘…It is simply not appropriate for any foreign leader to endorse a candidate in America’s presidential election. John Kerry does not seek, and will not accept, any such endorsements’…

- - - - - - -

This is a duplicate of the original post from the nikita demosthenes website.

Bush Has A Friend In Pennsylvania

President Bush has a friend in Pennsylvania and his name is Ralph Nader. This just came out of Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute:

Pennsylvania is shaping up once again as a critical state in the Presidential race as voters give 44 percent to President George W. Bush, 40 percent to Democratic challenger John Kerry and 7 percent to independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a head-to-head race, without Nader, Kerry gets 45 percent to President Bush’s 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Pennsylvania carries 21 electoral votes.

Former Vice President Al Gore won Pennsylvania by a whisker in 2000 - a margin of about 200,000 votes out of more than 4.5 million cast. Nader took about 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania four years ago.

Sure, there’s a lot of time between now and election day, and early polls often don’t mean a lot. But in Pennsylvania, the early polling numbers mean this: the Democrats, including Kerry, will have to spend an awful lot of resources in the state to fight two opponents - merely to keep Pennsylvania in the blue column this year. That would likely mean fewer resources to fight in other battlegrounds like Florida.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

New Poll Is Better News For President Bush

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll provides better news for President Bush.

According to the New York Times article about the poll:

Already, most voters think Mr. Kerry is a politician who says what people want to hear, the poll found, rather than what he believes — the line of attack Mr. Bush has used against him in speeches.

At the same time, there is sweeping concern among Americans about the president’s economic policies, including his ability to create jobs and the effectiveness of his tax cuts, according to the poll.

[. . .]

Perhaps most significant for Mr. Bush, the number of Americans who think that the nation is heading in the wrong direction is now 54 percent, as high as it has been in his presidency.

[. . .]

The Times/CBS News poll offered the latest evidence that the race for president was as tight as has long been predicted. Even after two weeks in which Mr. Bush has run televised advertisements promoting himself and attacking Mr. Kerry, and in which Mr. Kerry has enjoyed the glow of favorable coverage that greeted his near-sweep of Democratic primaries, the two men are effectively tied, with 46 percent of voters saying they supported Mr. Bush and 43 percent backing Mr. Kerry.

The candidacy of Ralph Nader looms as a potentially lethal threat to Democratic hopes of regaining the White House: With Mr. Nader in the race, Mr. Bush leads Mr. Kerry by 46 percent to 38 percent, with Mr. Nader drawing 7 percent of the votes. In a sign of the polarized electorate Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry are facing, three-quarters of supporters of each candidate asserted they would not change their mind before the election.

The nationwide telephone poll of 1,206 adults, including 984 registered voters, was taken from last Wednesday through Sunday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The Times’ article correctly states that the 46% Bush 43% Kerry spread is within the poll’s margin of error. However the Times doesn’t point out that this is a reversal of the polls February results which found Kerry ahead 47% - 46%.

The poll can be accessed by following this link and in the Campaign 2004 box click on the “Interactive Feature: Complete Results: New York Times/CBS Poll” link.

Sharpton Endorses Kerry

The Associated Press reports that Sharpton endorsed Kerry, but promised to continue his own “urban agenda campaign:”

“It would be misleading and futile to campaign for the nomination, but it continues for the platform and direction of the party,” Sharpton told The Associated Press in a telephone interview. “My campaign continues now to pick up delegates so that we can go to the convention to coalesce with other delegates.”

[. . .]

In welcoming the endorsement, Kerry praised Sharpton’s “ability to cut through the double-talk we see coming from this administration,” and pledged to work for Sharpton’s oft-stated goal of a new “urban agenda.”

Kerry Refuses To Reveal Which Foreign Leaders Support Him

On Fox News Sunday Chris wallace asked Secretary of State Powell about Kerry’s assertion that foreign leaders want Kerry to defeat Bush:

WALLACE: All right. I’m not sure you can answer this one, but I would like to get your comment on it, if I could.

Senator Kerry says that foreign leaders — you look like you know this — want him to beat the president. And here’s what he’s had to say: “I’ve met with foreign leaders who can’t go out and say this publicly, but boy, they look at you and say, ‘You’ve got to win this. You’ve got to beat this guy. We need a new policy.”’

POWELL: I can’t even talk to that, Chris. I don’t know what foreign leaders Senator Kerry is talking about. It’s an easy charge, an easy assertion to make. But if he feels it is that important an assertion to make, he ought to list some names. If he can’t list names, then perhaps he should find something else to talk about.

Kerry refused to reveal which foreign leaders are rooting for him when questioned about the issue during a town meeting in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.

Kerry's Nomination Official, Asks for Monthly Debates

John Kerry officially became the Democratic party nominee

The four-term Massachusetts senator reached the 2,162 delegate mark Saturday afternoon, the AP count found, just as Democrats in Kansas headed to party caucuses.

Kerry subsequently added to his tally with another easy victory in Kansas, winning 72 percent of the vote there and pushing his delegate total to 2,194.

During a speech in Quincy, Illinois yesterday, Kerry let the first official arrows fly:

“Surely, if the attack ads can start now, at least we can agree to start a real discussion about America’s future.”

Kerry then called for monthly debates with President Bush Kerry on the big issues facing America; mainly the war on terror, the economy and health care.

We confront big issues — as big as any issues in the history of our nation — and they call for a new and historic commitment to a real and informed exchange of ideas,” said Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts Democrat. “I believe the American people are hungry for a genuine conversation about the fundamental questions before us, and they are ready to begin this now

Bush campaign representitive Steve Schmiddt wasn’t all that impressed with Kerry’s call for civil discourse:

Steve Schmidt, a Bush campaign representative, said Kerry had run 17 negative spots — a total of 15,000 times — and spent $6.3 million attacking the president in the primaries. He also noted that Kerry called his Republican rivals “the most crooked, you know, lying group I’ve ever seen” last week.

“Senator Kerry should finish the debate with himself before he starts trying to explain his positions to the voters,” said Schmidt.

The Weekly Round is Done

PoliBlog’s Toast-O-Meter, a weekly news and commentary round-up concerning the presidential race is now available here.

Democrats Attempt Massive Voter Fraud in Chicago

In Cook County, Illinois - a jurisdiction in which every single elected official is a Democrat - a massive attempt at voter fraud has been uncovered. Here are excerpts from the story in the Chicago Tribune:

- - - - - - -

As many as 2,000 fraudulent voter registrations, almost all from the city’s 26th Ward, have been submitted in advance of Tuesday’s primary election, and two suspects are under investigation, election officials announced Thursday.

The two gathered registrations on behalf of the Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration, a Washington, D.C.-based affiliate of the Puerto Rican government, officials said.

“I don’t want to indict the organization,” said Langdon Neal, chairman of the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. “It has been a very valuable partner in registering voters.”

- - - - - - -

“We consider this one of the largest cases of fraud we have seen in many years,” he said.

The 26th Ward, on the city’s Near Northwest Side, has about 24,000 registered voters.

- - - - - - -

“[A] very valuable partner in registering voters” indeed. Perhaps this sort of thing is the reason why every single elected official in Cook County is a Democrat.

Chicago’s 26th Ward - the epicenter of the fraud - is also dominated by Democrats. See, e.g., the web sites of Alderman Billy Ocasio and Congressman Luis Gutierrez.

Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post on the nikita demosthenes website.

California Supreme Court Halts San Francisco Gay Marriages

The Supreme Court of California, earlier today, halted gay marriages in San Francisco. Here’s an excerpt from the late-breaking story in the L.A. Times:

- - - - - - -

The California Supreme Court today halted same-sex weddings in San Francisco until it could decide whether local authorities have the right to ignore state laws that limit marriage to heterosexuals.

The seven-justice panel will hear arguments sometime in the spring.

In the unanimously approved order, the justices made it clear that they would be considering only one question — whether San Francisco officials could defy state law, and not whether same-sex couples have the right to marry.

Today’s ruling is a major setback to San Francisco officials and their allies in gay rights groups who were hoping to have the high court consider their argument that the state Constitution bars discrimination against gay couples.

- - - - - - -

Via lucianne.com.

This is a duplicate of the original post at the nikita demosthenes website.

Kerry Caught on Tape

Kerry either forgot his mic was on or just didn’t care.

The comments, caught on tape, came after Kerry addressed the AFL-CIO by satellite. Union workers had been standing behind him. When the satellite feed ended, Kerry spoke briefly with a couple of them.

“Keep smiling,” one man said to him.

Kerry responded, “Oh yeah, don’t worry man. We’re going to keep pounding, let me tell you — we’re just beginning to fight here. These guys are the most crooked, you know, lying group of people I’ve ever seen.”

“It’s scary,” replied another worker.

When asked about the incident campaign official David Wade didn’t really explain or defend, he just launched into some equivalence:

Some Republicans have launched the most “crooked, deceitful, personal attacks over the last four years,” Wade said, citing what he called attacks on Democratic Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia two years ago and attacks on Sen. John McCain during the race against Bush for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000.

Wade also pointed to a doctored photograph that placed Kerry alongside Jane Fonda during protests of the Vietnam war. That doctored photograph surfaced after an authentic photograph surfaced that showed Kerry sitting several rows behind Fonda at an anti-war rally.

So, Kerry was just getting even with the Republicans for past incidents, sort of like Todd Bertuzzi going after Mike Moore?

And that doctored photo was passed around mostly by bloggers and other non-Bush affiliated sites.

SuperChad Tuesday

In a no-interest no-contest, John Kerry has won the Florida Primary. Read the details at FOX.

Kerry's Wife Finances Anti-WOT Group That Protested Bush Ads

This morning’s NY Post editorial exposes the financial link between John Kerry’s wife and Peaceful Tomorrows, a small group of anti-war relatives of September 11 victims. Members of Peaceful Tomorrows were recently represented in the media as average September 11 families who objected to the Bush campaign’s brief use of September 11 images in one of the President’s first campaign ads:

Leading the rhetorical charge has been an outfit called September 11th Families for Peaceful Tomorrows - which, the group admits, has only a few dozen members and represents relatives of no more than 1 percent of the 9/11 victims.

More to the point, the group was formed specifically to oppose the entire War on Terror: Not just the campaign against Saddam Hussein, but also the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

…Peaceful Tomorrows’ parent group, the San Francisco-based Tides Foundation, has received millions from foundations controlled by Kerry’s heiress wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry.

A spokesman for Kerry insists that her donations to Tides were earmarked specifically for environmental charities based in Pennsylvania. But money is fungible - and the Tides Foundation has a lot more than greening the earth on its plate.

It has given millions to anti-war groups since 9/11 - particularly the extremist MoveOn.org.

…Tides gets much of its funds from philanthropists like Mrs. Kerry and billionaire George Soros - who has made defeating President Bush his top personal priority.

As Richard Berman, director of the Center for Consumer Freedom, told Congress in 2002: “The Tides Foundation distributes other foundations’ money, while shielding the identity of the actual donors.”

Kerry Ready to "pre-challenge" Election Results

Kerry rarely mentions the legal battle over the 2000 election while campaigning, but he did so repeatedly in the state that was the epicenter four years ago. Responding to a voter who asked, “What can you do to prevent them from stealing the election again?”, Kerry, a lawyer and former Massachusetts prosecutor, said his campaign was assembling a legal team to examine districts which had problems.

“We’re going to pre-check it, we’re going to have the legal team in place. … We’re going to take injunctions where necessary ahead of time. We’ll pre-challenge if necessary,” the four-term Massachusetts senator said.

Full story

The Mighty Midwest

Here’s a pretty decent analysis (written from a California perspective) of where the Electoral College battle lines are being drawn for the November election:

Strategists for Bush and Kerry are mapping out an electoral plan for the eight-month presidential campaign that focuses on a handful of Midwestern states — Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin — as well as Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico and perhaps West Virginia and Arizona. And, of course, there’s Florida, the most infamous swing state of the last election.

Emphasis added. Read the whole thing, as they say.

Kerry Looking to Send His Own Team to Iraq

Time:

Senator John Kerry tells TIME that he “almost certainly” will send a team to Iraq “within the next few weeks or months” to help him formulate his Iraq policy positions. “I may ask some Democratic colleagues and experts to go to Iraq and make this assessment so I have a strong basis on which to proceed,” he tells TIME’s Perry Bacon, Lisa Beyer and Karen Tumulty on his campaign plane from Washington, DC to Florida last week. He mentions Senate colleague Joseph Biden, chief campaign foreign policy adviser Rand Beers and longtime Kerry Senate aide Nancy Stetson. But, says White House communications director Dan Bartlett, Kerry’s “mission to finally understand what is happening in Iraq reveals once again that (his) attacks are based on politics, not facts.”

Whatever approach he embraces will have a better chance of success, Kerry argues, because he knows how to play well with others..”

Kerry Vs. Kerry

The Republican National Committee today unveiled Kerry Vs. Kerry, an interactive Internet game designed to highlight Kerry’s history of changing his position on thirty different issues:

“If voters are interested in finding out about Senator Kerry’s multiple positions on multiple issues they can inform themselves by going a few rounds with Kerry Vs. Kerry. We think they’ll find the only thing consistent about Senator Kerry’s record is its inconsistency,” said RNC Communications Director Jim Dyke.

“Voters will be enlightened and entertained as they click to flip and then flop with Senator Kerry on all the important issues of the day. From taxes to national security to education, if you have a position, chances are good Senator Kerry has shared that position, and also opposed it, at some point in his Senate career. We invite voters to take a closer look, and have a little fun at the same time,” Dyke said.

You can read Kerry’s multiple positions without playing the game here.

President Bush Defends Sept. 11 Focus

President Bush dismissed calls that he pull political ads that use images of the devastated World Trade Center to show him as a strong leader in troubled times:

“I will continue to speak about the effects of 9/11 on our country and my presidency,” Bush told reporters at a joint news conference with Mexican President Vicente Fox at Bush’s Crawford, Texas ranch. “How this administration handled that day as well as the war on terror is worthy of discussion and I look forward to discussing that with the American people.”

Bush v. Kerry Polls

From a Fox News poll:

• If the election were held today, Bush and Kerry would be in a dead heat
• Bush is the more trustworthy of the two candidates when it comes to war
• Kerry gets the lead on managing the economy
• Bush’s approval rating is at 48%, with 44% disapproving
• 58% think the country is safer today than it was before 9/11
• 57% believe that taking military action abroad is necessary to keep from fighting terrorists on U.S. soil

Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national poll of registered voters for FOX News on March 3-4.

An AP Poll finds:

• Kerry and Bush tied
• Nader polling at 6%

Show Me the Money

Thanks to some data from CNN, I have updated my warchest chart.

As a group, the Democrats continue to raise more money than the Republicans. This slight edge has grown by a full percentage point since I last reviewed the situation in November. Yet, as a wise man once said, a house divided against itself will not stand.

One of the advantages of incumbency is that their party’s money is usually not spent in a primary fight. President Bush has $104 million dollars on hand in his warchest. Senator Kerry has $2 million. Even if the Democrats continue to raise $1.19 for every $1.00 the Republicans raise, and it all goes to Kerry, the Democrats would have to raise $537 million dollars (compared to the Republicans raising $452 million) to pull even. Unless George Soros or Teresa Heinz decide to commit a major portion of their wealth, it is not going to happen.

What Are the Odds?

Taegan Goddard has James Carville’s odds on Kerry’s VP selection:

* John Edwards — 6 to 5: “What Kerry needs is someone to defend him and help make his case. If you had to hire a lawyer to defend you, name a better one.”
* Dick Gephardt — 5 to 1: “He is generally regarded as the most prepared to be president, suggests Mr. Carville, and as a man of enormous personal and public probity.”
* Bill Richardson — 5 to 1: “Not as articulate as Edwards or as qualified as Gephardt but gives some of both.” But Carville has some advice: to Gov. Richardson: “Go on a diet.”
* Evan Bayh — 7 to 1: “A fresh face, an Edwards of the Midwest, where the 2004 election may be settled. The Indiana Democrat was governor before he was senator, and would bring some executive experience to a Kerry ticket.”
* Bob Graham — 7 to 1: “He’s the most popular figure in the most controversial state in the country.”
* Hillary Clinton — 15 to 1: “She she would bring instant money … to both parties and probably bring a lot more women in.

My money is still on Bayh.

President Bush Ahead Of Kerry In New Poll

Associated Press reports that a new poll finds President Bush tied with Kerry:

The Republican incumbent had the backing of 46 percent, Kerry 45 percent and Nader, the 2000 Green Party candidate who entered the race last month, was at 6 percent in the survey conducted for The Associated Press by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

The poll also showed a slight improvement in President Bush’s approval rating:

Bush’s job approval in the AP-Ipsos poll was 48 percent, with 49 percent disapproving, which is essentially the same as last month when 47 percent approved of the president’s job performance.

The AP-Ipsos poll of was conducted March 1-3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Bill Clinton as VP: Can He or Can't He?

In John Kerry’s search for the perfect running mate, some Democrats have raised an intriguing question: Could former two-term President Bill Clinton serve as vice president?

There has been quite a bit of discussion about this since Kerry basically became the Democratic nominee and people started speculating on his running mate.

Most of the discussion has centered around whether or not Clinton is eligible to take the position of Vice-President, and the 22nd and 12th amendments are the talking points:

The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution imposes a two-term limit on presidential candidates, but imposes no limit on the vice presidency. As vice president, however, Clinton could succeed the president upon death, incapacity, impeachment or resignation and serve a third term.

That leads to the 12th Amendment, which states that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of Vice President of the United States.”

Attorney Stephen Gillers claims that Clinton can, indeed, be VP, citing the 22nd amendment.

The first objection, the constitutional one, can be disposed of easily. The Constitution does not prevent Mr. Clinton from running for vice president. The 22nd Amendment, which became effective in 1951, begins: “No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice.”

Disputing Gillers’s claim is law proffesor Eugene Volokh:

I’m pretty skeptical, though: The 12th Amendment, after all, says (among other things) that

[N]o person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

The 22nd Amendment prevents Clinton from being President, so therefore under the 12th he can’t be Vice-President.

Gillers, responding to Volokh, said:

I admit that I should have addressed the 12th Am. point but I do not think it changes the argument.

The 12th Am. says: “But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice President of the United States.”

He said more, and so did plenty of other people. Read the rest at Volokh’s site and come to your own conclusion.

Unsecured voting machines in GA

Peter Sahlstrom, the Georgia Tech student who took photos Monday of 10 unsecured electronic voting machines lying around unlocked and unguarded in a student center lobby, has been nice enough to share a bunch of his photos with me…

You can view the full gallery here. The photos appear here with Peter’s permission; please do not republish them without his permission. And please visit Peter’s website! :)

[Cross-posted at BrendanLoy.com]

Edwards Makes it Official - He's Out

Though everyone knew last night that Edwards was no longer in the race, he made it official today:

On Wednesday, during a speech in his hometown, he ended his formal pursuit of the Democratic presidential nomination.

..

“From the beginning, this has never been my campaign, this has been your campaign and I am blessed to be a part of it,” he continued. But “today, I’ve decided to suspend my candidacy for the president of the United States.”

If you’re interested, his whole speech will be up on his official campaign site later tonight.

Hello From Paradise

Just checking in from vacation, logging on from an Internet cafe half a world away from Super Tuesday and all the associated wailing and gnashing. So you know, when you’re diving two or three times a day and spending the rest of your hours contemplating the trade winds, cocktail hour, and dinner, the Dean victory in Vermont seems about as significant as … well … it actually was.

Regardless, I just wanted to thank Michele for all she’s doing to hold down the fort and keep the cyberpresses pressing. She’ll get a T-Shirt from the islands, I promise. I have four more days in Paradise, then I’ll be back on the post.

Until then, enjoy the day, wherever you might be.

Kucinich: The Man Who Wouldn't Give Up

He’ll still trudge on.

Kucinich, undaunted despite his poor performance in Ohio and other states, planned to continue his campaign with a trip today to Florida, one of four Southern states holding contests next Tuesday. At a party at a nightclub on Cleveland’s near West Side, he said he will stay in the race “all the way to the convention” and highlight his differences with Kerry on Iraq, trade, health care and other issues.

“My voice is needed in this debate,” said Kucinich, who was trailing Kerry in early returns even in Cuyahoga County. “With fewer candidates, my contrast with Senator Kerry will be much more apparent.”

[via Political Wire]

Open Discussion: Kerry's Running Mate

Here’s your chance to make your predictions, discuss the choices and speculate about who Kerry will choose as his running mate.

Election Update – Two Surprises

As expected, John Kerry won virtually every primary yesterday. Edwards has unofficially withdrawn (registration required) from the race and is expected to make an official announcement this afternoon. The biggest surprise was that Howard Dean won his first primary two weeks after he withdrew from the race. Dean won his home state of Vermont, but it also helped that Edwards was not on the ballot (Edwards’ campaign didn’t bother with the paperwork back in January when Dean looked unstoppable).

The other surprise, although much less of one, was that Kerry most likely won Georgia. With 95% of precincts reporting as of this post, Kerry had 46.7% of the vote compared to 41.5% for Edwards. The exit polling in Georgia was interesting too.

Edwards fared well among voters who cared more about the issues than defeating Bush. This is consistent with polls in other states. Kerry seems to have locked up the Democratic nomination because his party thinks he is most likely to beat Bush, not because they like his stances.

More black voters backed Kerry than Edwards, but the majority of white voters supported Edwards.This is also consistent with other Southern polls. Given recent trends, Kerry can expect to receive over 80% of the black vote. However, Kerry has an uphill battle to win the votes of non-black Southerners.

After Edwards makes it official today, expect to see both President Bush and Senator Kerry spending more time focused on each other and (hopefully) their own issues.

The Election Moves Into a New Phase

Kerry pretty much claimed the Democrat nomination for President last night, taking nine out of ten states and effectively forcing Edwards to drop from the campaign.

Kerry got a call from his presidential rival last night:

President Bush called Mr. Kerry, of Massachusetts, to congratulate him on his victories. “I said, `I hope we have a great debate about the issues before the country,’ ” Mr. Kerry said, recounting his conversation with the president.

Scott Stanzel, a Bush campaign spokesman, said Mr. Bush told Mr. Kerry that he had won the nomination against a tough field and that he was looking forward to a spirited race.

Kerry also spoke to Edwards:

At 7:30, Mr. Edwards reached Mr. Kerry by phone to signal his intention to withdraw, without exactly saying it, said David Wade, Mr. Kerry’s spokesman, and the two men talked about how they “rode out the tough times” on the campaign trail.

Kerry may have played nice on the phone with Bush, but his victory speech set the tone for the campaign to come:

Tonight the message could not be clearer all across our country: Change is coming to America

Before us stretch long months of effort and challenge. We have no illusions about the Republican attack machine and what our opponents will try to do.

But I know we are equal to the task. I’m a fighter. For more than 30 years, I’ve been on the frontlines of the battle for fairness and mainstream American values.

And in 2004, we will tell the truth about what’s happened in our country, and we will fight to give America back its future and its hope.

There are powerful forces that want America to continue on its present path. And there are also millions of Americans hurt by policies that favor the few, who doubt whether government once again can work for them. Millions more live in fear everyday that they will lose their job, or lose their healthcare or lose their pensions.

My campaign is about replacing doubt with hope, and replacing fear with security.

You can read his entire speech here.

Minnesota Fat For Bush?

North Dakota Gov. Mike Johanns was in Minnesota last night campaigning for President Bush. Former Vice President Al Gore took the state in 2000 by only two and a half percent over Bush, and it’s clear the GOP thinks it’s very winnable this year, according to Johanns’ entry on the Bush-Cheney blog:

Minnesota is a very winnable state, and we’re not going to take anything for granted. We’re going to do for the President what was done for Governor Tim Pawlenty and Senator Norm Coleman, and that is win this state for a Republican.

Minnesota has an independent streak - ask Jesse Ventura - and 10 electoral votes. Another factor: Ralph Nader, who took 5 percent of the Minnesota vote in 2000 as a Green and who’s looking to make the ballot as an independent this year.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

Kerrifornia

All networks now projecting California for Kerry.

Latest Numbers

• CT - 90% reporting
  Kerry
  59%
  Edwards
  25%

• Maryland - 51% reporting
  
  Kerry
  61%
  Edwards
  24%
  
• Massachusetts - 68% reporting
  Kerry
  72%
  Edwards

• Georgia 0% reporting
  Kerry
  45%
  Edwards
  44%

• Vermont 74% reporting
  Dean
  58%
  Kerry
  33%
  
• Ohio - 63% reporting
  Kerry
  52%
  Edwards
  36%
  
• New York - 76% reporting
  Kerry
  60%
  Edwards
  20%
  
• Rhode Island - 99% reporting
  Kerry
  71%
  Edwards
  19%

Quotes from Kerry's speech

[Cross-posted at BrendanLoy.com]

“Thank you to voters from coast to coast who have truly made this a Super Tuesday.”

“A remarkably gracious… powerful statement by John Edwards tonight. There is no question that John Edwards bring a compelling voice to our party, great eloquence to the cause of working men and women all across our nation, and great promise for leadership in the years to come, and we thank him for what he has done over the course of this race.”

“In 2004, one united Democratic party, we can and we will win this election — and we will build one America.” (emphasis added)

Edwards a rival in recent months, but first and foremost, a friend. “He is a valiant champion of the values for which our party stands.”

Now praising and thanking Dean for bringing people into the process.

“Tonight the message could not be clearer, all across our country: change is coming to America.”

“I know that together, we are equal to this task. I am a fighter.” Blah blah, “battlefield” allusions. Did you know he served in Vietnam?

“In 2004, I pledge we will tell the truth about what has happened in our country, and we will fight to give America back its future and its hope.” Good line.

“The Bush Administration has run the most inept, arrogant, and ideological foreign policy in the history of our country, and we will reverse that course.” (I think I missed one adjective.)

“Bring it on! Bring it on! Bring it on!”

“George Bush, who promised to be a uniter, has become a great divider. Just last week, he proposed to amend the Constitution of the United States for political purpose. We say that he has no right to misuse the most precious document in our history to divide this nation and distract us from our goals. We resoundingly reject the politics of fear and distortion. We will instead, all across this nation throughout these next months, keep trust with Lincoln’s ideals of America as the last, best hope on Earth.”

Today, like in Vietnam era, “Americans are once again wondering if they can trust and believe the leadership of this country. Our campaign is about restoring that belief, and speaking honestly and straightforwardly to the American people … [and] building an America t