Edwards supporters hit the circus

As part of our continuing live coverage of the S.C. primary season, I bring you this true Tale from the Campaign Trail:

On my way into the Ringling Bros. circus in Greenville today with my son, I ran across a group of John Edwards supporters handing out flyers. One approached me and asked: “Are you voting Tuesday.”

“No,” I said. He didn’t asked me why not. I didn’t have the heart to tell him that I was probably going to vote for Bush.

Anyway, he started in with his schtick, right away with health care. “John Edwards has a plan that guarantees health care for children until they turn 18, even if you have personal coverage.”

He handed me a flyer that read:

“Edwards on the Issues.” Sure enough, there was the health care plan: “Edwards proposes that for the first time in history, America should require health insurance for every child. His plan provides tax credits to help families with rising premiums so everyone will have access to affordable health care. To bring down healthcare costs, he will take on insurance companies, drug companies, and HMO’s.”

So he’s not going to guarantee health care, he’s going to require it. So does he plan to make child health insurance like auto liability insurance in many states? As for lowering health care costs, it sounds like trial lawyer talk to me, someone who’s “in your corner.”

I don’t know how many votes these folks gained for Edwards, but I didn’t see anyone canvassing for the other candidates.

Dean: Kerry Is "Another Special Interest Clone."

Sharpen ‘em up! Via CNN:

Dean said he was “outraged” and “furious” by a Washington Post report that Kerry has raised more money from paid lobbyists than any other senator during the past 15 years.

Kerry has made standing up to corporate lobbyists a central theme of his campaign.

“It turns out we’ve got more than one Republican in the race,” Dean said. Dean has previously called retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander, a Republican.

Kerry Leads Senate in Special-Interest Money

The Washington Post reports that John Kerry has received the most special-interest money of any senator over the last 15 years. This while he is campaigning against special-interest influence.

Kerry, a 19-year veteran of the Senate who fought and won four expensive political campaigns, has received nearly $640,000 from lobbyists, many representing telecommunications and financial companies with business before his committee, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

For his presidential race, Kerry has raised more than $225,000 from lobbyists, better than twice as much as his nearest Democratic rival. Like President Bush, Kerry has also turned to a number of corporate officials and lobbyists to “bundle” contributions from smaller donors, often in sums of $50,000 or more, records provided by his campaign show.

The response from Kerry’s camp:

“Senator Kerry has taken individual contributions from lobbyists, but that has not stopped him from fighting against special interests on behalf of average Americans,” said Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter. “If anyone thinks a contribution can buy Kerry’s vote, then they are wasting their money.”

Republicans Concerned About Close Election

The Associated Press is reporting that some Republicans are concerned about the possibility of a close presidential election in November, now that Howard Dean is no longer the front-runner. The concern seems to rise from John Kerry’s military service and his appeal to some veterans.

Republicans feel Kerry is a veteran politician who can avoid the obvious mistakes of a political newcomer and they’re very aware he is a decorated Vietnam war hero running in a time of war.

”I can’t tell you in all honesty that President Bush has a big advantage going into this election,” said Gary Abernathy, executive director of the West Virginia Republican Party.

Both Abernathy and West Virginia party chairman Kris Warner said they expect a competitive contest both in traditionally Democratic West Virginia and nationally. Bush narrowly won West Virginia in 2000.

”Here’s a president who has done so much for the military,” Warner said. ”And you’ve got a guy like Kerry who, whenever he shows up on TV, has veterans standing behind him, including the guy he pulled out of the river.’

‘

Edwards Widens Lead in South Carolina

The latest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll is out, showing Edwards ahead in his home state.

John Edwards, needing a win in South Carolina to keep his campaign alive, widened his lead over Kerry in the state to 4 points in the latest three-day tracking poll.

Kerry, the new Democratic front-runner after back-to-back wins in the first two contests, holds a 33-point lead in Missouri and a 16-point lead in Arizona, where Clark shaved 5 points off his advantage in one day.

Kerry still leads in Missouri and Arizona, while Clark is still slightly ahead in Oklahoma.

The Latest Toast-O-Meter is Up

The 1-31-04 Edition of the Toast-O-Meter is available for your viewing pleasure.

Kerry and Michigan

Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm (D), has scheduled a press conference for later this afternoon, when she is expected to give Kerry her endorsement.

Recent polls show Kerry with the lead in Michigan, but Dean is determined to win at least that state, although he has been saying recently that winning primaries are not as important as getting delegates. A recent poll shows Kerry leading the Dem field with 37% of those polled likely to vote for him.

Kerry has also picked up key union backing in Michigan, including the Michigan Education Association.
Michigan’s caucus will be held next Saturday, February 7.

Not all veterans for Kerry

When listening to John Kerry tout his war record, I’ve often wondered what other Vets think of the fact that he came home to protest the war, aligning himself with the likes of Jane Fonda.

Apparently, some Vietnam vets have taken notice, and they aren’t too supportive:

Now that it serves his ambition to be president, Kerry reminds the public of his war record daily. But the dark side of that record is not being told. Many Vietnam veterans have taken notice, and many of us will vigorously oppose Kerry’s election to any office. - Vietnam stance irks veterans

Link found via Kathy Kinsley

Gert Clark

Live on C-SPAN, Gert Clark, wife of Wesley Clark, is speaking to a campaign forum in Florence, S.C.

“When people cut medicare, and claim they’re religious, I don’t know what religion they’re practicing.”

Promises 2 year, $12,000 grants for people to go to college, “so you won’t owe money to the government.”

“Flag, faith and values” are country’s values, “not something that can be claimed by one party or another.”

“The most important thing in this country now is jobs. My husband is going to put you back to work.”

Minimum wage immediately increased to $7. Money to states for hiring people for homeland security, education, etc.

John Kerry, Cookie Monster

I doubt that this story has any legs, but its interesting. John Kerry’s only foray into the business world (read: real world) was as owner of a cookie store, one that he allegedly ripped off. Read the story here.

S.C. Primary News 1/31

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Remaining Schedule:
2/1 6:25 p.m., Super Bowl Party, Manny’s, 12 Cumberland Street, Charleston
2/2 10 a.m. John Edwards, Rally, Stern Center Ballroom, College of Charleston, Charleston
2/2/ 12 p.m. John Edwards, Rally, Massachusetts Hall, Voorhees College, Denmark
2/2/ 12 p.m. John Edwards, Rally, Seneca Institute Family Life Center, W. South 3rd and Poplar Street, Seneca
2/3: 10 a.m. John Edwards, Rally, Belk Auditorium, Presbyterian College, Clinton
2/3 7:30 p.m., Charleston County Democrats Election Bash, City Bar, 192 East Bay Street, Charleston

News:
The Associated Press reports on two endorsements. Former DNC Chairman Don Fowler endorsed Kerry and State Treasurer Grady Patterson endorsed Edwards.

Taegan Goddard links to the latest S.C. primary poll (CBS) which has Edwards at 30% and Kerry at 18%.

President George W. Bush will visit Charleston two days after the primary on February 5.

Edwards, Kerry neck and neck, Charleston Post & Courier

Candidates pitch job plans, Greenville News

Diversity of views manifest at forum, The State

South Carolinians get another look at Democratic candidates, AP

Clark tries to distance himself from D.C. in battle for votes, Knight Ridder

Kerry promises to keep eye on Dixie, The State

King day in national spotlight, Greenville News

Debate less than inspiring, Furman professors say, Greenville News

Greenville shines, returns to normal, Greenville News

Running mate could be key for Kerry in South, The State

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com. Election 2004 section at Greenville Online features more news.

Yesterday’s Primary News

Delegate Tally Update (And Dean Still Leads)

We keep the count over there in the left-hand column, but here’s the latest:

Delegates needed: 2,162

• Dean: 114
• Kerry: 96
• Edwards: 39
• Clark: 30
• Lieberman: 25
• Gephardt: 7
• Sharpton: 4
• Kucinich: 2
• Other: 1

Bubba Chips In

Bill Clinton spent time yesterday on Capitol Hill advising Dem leadership on the campaign. Read more here at the Chicago Tribune.

FL Rep. Meek Endorses Kerry

Via ED / Miami Herald:

Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts will win the public support today of U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami, adding a major Florida name to the list of prominent black leaders embracing the new front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination as the race heats up in the South.

EC Curbs 'Endorsement' Ads

Courtesy ED comes this WaPo article noting that Bush will have a more difficult time appearing in ads for other candidates a ruling announced yesterday by the Federal Elections Commission.

Debate Transcript

Here’s the transcript from last night’s debate, courtesy WaPo.

Medical Experts: John Kerry Received Botox Treatments

From an article dated January 29, 2004, by Alexandra Wolfe in the New York Observer:

“He’s definitely gotten Botox,” said Dr. Michael Kane, the Manhattan-based plastic surgeon and author of The Botox Book. Sen. Kerry, the doctor explained, “has certain facial motions, characteristic expressions that he makes all the time. Like when he frowns, he tends to push the center of his eyebrows up. It’s a trademark of John Kerry’s — and he just can’t make that happen now,” said Dr. Kane. “That’s the look that’s normally plastered on his face and it never happened once on his victory speech.”

Indeed, Dr. Kane suggested that Sen. Kerry might seek a second opinion. “What he’s got isn’t Botox, it’s bad Botox,” the doctor said. “He has what I call the classic rookie mistake which is, in a man who has a lot of horizontal lines on his forehead, the botox is overdone in the person’s forehead. It changes normal emotions, facial expressions; now his eyebrows are incredibly low because someone has over-injected them. His forehead is bizarrely smooth, his eyebrows now sit right on his eyes and if you look at the Drudge Report pictures he now has classic bunny lines.” He explained that “bunny lines” happen “when so many muscles are over paralyzed” that the Botox recipient begins to rely on “the unusual muscles on the sides of his nose, making those little scrunchy lines on his nose — so he looks like a bunny.”

Surveying the “Before” and “After” shots of Mr. Kerry that were posted, along with the WRKO soundbite, on Matt Drudge’s website, New Jersey plastic surgeon Barry Citron let out a whoop and exclaimed, “That’s definitely the most effective $600 he could spend on his campaign!” That would be the cost of the 30-40 units of Botox that Dr. Citron guessed Mr. Kerry would have needed to smooth the expanse above his eyes.

“I’m willing to bet that between the beginning of Iowa and end of New Hampshire he had some Botox done,” said Dr. Michael Sachs. The Manhattan-based plastic surgeon said he could tell because Mr. Kerry looked much less haggard last Tuesday night than he did in Iowa, and because, he added: “His eyebrows didn’t move.”

Dr. Sachs, explained that Botox, which is created from the botulinum toxin type A (there are seven different types), starts working its muscle-relaxing magic in three to five days, peaks at two weeks and lasts between three to five months.

“Down the road, he may look even more relaxed and his eyebrows may droop even more,” Dr. Sachs explained. Come convention time in July, however, the candidate will need a booster shot.

One plastic surgeon, Manhattan’s Dr. Patricia Wexler, disagreed with the pack. “No, I don’t believe he has,” she said. “Much more is being made out of this than reality. It’s the vertical lines” — she called them “scowl lines” — “that are considered negative, and I don’t think he’s had those done.” Dr. Wexler then recommended that all politicans have their scowl lines removed. “It would’ve done Gore or Dole good to get rid of them,” she said. Her diagnosis of Sen. Kerry: “He’s more relaxed because he’s been winning,” she said.

Or was Mr. Kerry winning because he looked relaxed? Hamptons cosmetic surgeon Dr. Bruce Nadler opined that Mr. Kerry’s new look was responsible for his win in New Hampshire. “The issues are 50 percent, but voters are also looking for someone who is likeable, who has a calming influence. He has a more relaxed look whereas you’d expect him to look more haggard, more tired as this campaign grinds away,” said Dr. Nadler. “If Edwards is so much younger and winning votes as a result, and that’s going to sway the crowd, Kerry thinks, ‘If this other guy has a youthful look, then youthful looks are going to help me. I could win over some of his supporters if I look a little more youthful as well.’ It’s a campaign strategy. Look at poor Joe Lieberman, he’s not doing very well, maybe he looks a little too senior.”

Whatever the case, Sen. Kerry’s press secretary David Wade, sounded flabbergasted by the accusations. “John Kerry has not had botox treatments,” Mr. Wade wrote in an email. “And since when do plastic surgeons make diagnoses from Drudge Report photos? While it’s amazing how two big victories in Iowa and New Hampshire can put a smile on your face, it’s equally astounding how desperation leads our opponents to invent accusations. They can’t run against John Kerry on health care, education, or national security, so they’re attacking his looks.”

Of course, in New York, a town where plastic surgery ranks right up there with cable and psychotherapy on urbanites’ necessity lists, what’s really driving the did-he-or-didn’t-he? debate is whether Sen. Kerry lied about something as minor as a question about his physical upkeep. As Dr. Kane observed: “If it becomes an issue it goes right to his credibility.”

But New York-based political campaign consultant Hank Sheinkopf explained why a presidential candidate might not be eager to admit he’s a primper. “I don’t think this country is ready for the Botox president yet,.” said Mr. Sheinkopf, who was a member of Bill Clinton’s media team from ‘95 to ‘96 and has helped elect numerous New York politicians such as Bill Thompson and Betsy Gotbaum. “I can’t imagine the president having facial peels every month or having electrolysis. His problem is to be man enough to convince the Reagan Democrats in the Midwest, and Botox ain’t gonna help!”

- - - - - - -

Via the Drudge Report.

See, also, the related story in the January 30, 2004, edition of the Washington Times.

S.C. Primary News 1/30

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
7:30 a.m. “Breakfast with the Boys,” Palmetto Exposition Center, 1 Exposition Ave., Greenville
8:30 a.m. Al Sharpton, Dreher H.S., Columbia
8:45 a.m Wesley Clark, Conversation with Clark, Fine Arts Center, Benedict College, 1600 Harden St.,Columbia
9 a.m. John Kerry, town hall meeting, Russell House ballroom, Univ. of S.C., Columbia
John Edwards, community breakfast with Rep. Bill Clyburn, Shoney’s, Whiskey Road, Aiken
9 a.m Dennis Kucinich, People’s Agenda for Economic Justice forum
11 a.m Candidate Forum moderated by Tom Joyner, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1:30 p.m. John Edward, Smith University Center, Francis Marion Univ., Florence
1:30-3:30 Al Sharpton, Benedict College, Columbia
3:30 p.m. John Edwards, Anderson Library, USC-Sumter,Sumter.
2 p.m. Dennis Kucinich, forum, W.V.M. Fine Arts Center, Claflin University, Orangeburg
8:30 p.m. John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
9:30 p.m Al Sharpton, Club Inzone, North Charleston
11:30 p.m. Al Sharpton, Club V-12, Columbia
[Remaining Schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
Spotted on cable news nets in the past 24 hours:
Lee Bandy, The State
Katie Fowler, S.C. Young Democrats
Blease Graham, Univ. of S.C.
John Moylan, S.C. Chairman, Edwards campaign

S.C. Debate Summary

Fact-Checking the Democratic Debate

OxBlog discusses Brokaw’s “Nation of Islam” gaffe at last night’s debate as well of the rest of Brokaw’s questions. Wonkette doesn’t agree. Mickey Kaus discusses Kerry’s debate performance.

Taegan Goddard discusses the latest poll numbers:

In South Carolina, Edwards “is in a dead heat lead over red hot” Kerry at 25% to 24%. Dean is in third place at 9%, followed closely by Clark at 8%.

Mike also discusses the latest poll.

S.C. no longer big prize for Democrats by Lee Bandy, The State

Bubba 4 Kerry picture from outside the debate.

Families drawn to Sharpton’s, Lieberman’s messages, Greenville News

Candidates Blast Bush, Say South Key To Unseating Him, WYFF

Candidates stress their ability to compete with Bush in the South, The State

Dean, Kerry spar in S.C., Charleston Post & Courier

The State features a look inside the “spin room.” and how the candidates fared in the debate. The democratic debate dartboard is another story they feature today.

Candidates spin their take on debate, Greenville News

Voters rally around their guys, Greenville News

Debate photo gallery and Post-debate festivities from the Greenville News.

Debate picture from the Post & Courier.

What They Said: Candidates’ Debate Statements, WYFF

Democratic rivals converge on S.C., Charleston Post & Courier

Outside The Debate; Crowds Gather, Supporters Campaign, Opinions Vary, WYFF

Hotel wired for debates, Greenville News

Crowds come for debate, but stay for party, Greenville News

Photo gallery of Candidates spend debate day campaigning.

Dems embrace candidates’ messages, Greenville News

What the national media is saying, The State

Jesse Jackson cancels rally at Statehouse, Charleston Post & Courier

The State features a look at participants in today’s forum and other facts on the forum.

Brian and Mike both missed the debate, but expect more from them between now and Tuesday night.

Remaining Schedule:
2/2: John Edwards, Seneca
2/3 7:30 p.m., Charleston County Democrats Election Bash, City Bar, 192 East Bay Street, Charleston

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com. Election 2004 section at Greenville Online features more news.

Yesterday’s Primary News

Poll Position 1/30

MSNBC/Reuters Zogby Poll

The most striking finding of Zogby’s survey of the four primary states, Arizona, Missouri, South Carolina, and Oklahoma, is that Dean holds the lead in none of them, and in fact the best he can place is 12 percent in Arizona.

The amount of people still undecided is quite striking as well, and could make all the difference in the world.

The poll surveyed people on other topics related to the primaries as well. Read them all here.

Bush Goes to New Hampshire

Demonstrating once again his political savvy, Bush showed up in New Hampshire yesterday to remind voters there of their other choice. From the Sun-Times:

MERRIMACK, N.H. — President Bush, taking the New Hampshire political stage all for himself after the Democrats decamped, defended his economic record Thursday against his rivals’ charges that he has favored the rich and let 2.3 million jobs slip away.

”You can tell I’m upbeat,” Bush said, almost drowned out by cheers. ”And I got reason to be. Not only do the numbers say things are looking pretty good, the American people are telling me that they feel pretty good.”

S.C. Debate Summary

[Cross-Posted at Backcountry Conservative]

I am making this post to unify all the ones I made before, during and after the debate into a single location. The rest of Thursday’s primary news is here.

I started my debate blogging a few minutes early. The debate was broadcast across the state and nation and held in Greenville, South Carolina. Following the NBC Nightly News from the stage, local news anchors discussed final preparations for the debate.

The debate began with discussion of the horse race. This discussion continued with Dean being asked about his campaign shakeup following Iowa followed by Clark and Lieberman discussing their viability. Kucinich and Sharpton also discussed their chances.

A lengthy discussion on Iraq was interrupted by the first commercial break. Iraq was also discussed after the break.

After the next break, jobs were the topic of discussion. Following the next break, Medicare and healthcare were discussed.

The debate ended with other issues discussed including gay rights, guns, faith, the Confederate flag and affirmative action. WYFF concluded its coverage which included Dan Hoover of the Greenville News and then mentioned their Committment 2004 special newscast from 11-12 tonight.

Other Debate Blogging
Steven Taylor:
Debate Blogging
Trade, the Economy and Such (More Debate Blogging)
NAFTA “Sends” Jobs Abroad

Dappled Things:
The Democratic Debate in Greenville
the debate continues….
Mellow debate?
Gays, guns and God?

The Command Post:
Debate Alert
Debate Blogging [Updated]

Insults Unpunished

The Spoons Experience

RNC Chair Rips Kerry on National Security

The long knives are coming out for John Kerry now. Here’s the key portion of RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie’s speech today, which previewed what is likely to be a significant line of attack from the GOP if Kerry holds his lead in the race for the Democratic nomination - attacking Kerry’s record of votes to cut spending on the military and on intelligence:

Debate Blogging [Updated]

Brokaw is feeling just a bit feisty tonight.

He went straight at Dean, asking about the firing of Trippi, and basically pissed all over Neele. Dean responded by saying he didn’t “fire” Trippi and defended his choice of Neele, a Washington lobbyist.

The main message by the candidates so far: Standing up for their beliefs and American values.

Brokaw asked the bottom Clark, Lieberman, Sharpton and Kucnich each if they would stay in the race if they didn’t win a state in the next two weeks.

None of them gave a direct answer, but used the opportunity to do a little cheerleading for themselves.

____________

Lieberman: (paraphrased) I seriously doubt that Libya would have given up their nuclear weapons if Saddam was not captured - I seriously doubt that Iran would have accepted international help [in Bam] if Saddam had not been captured.

- Circumstances have given a bad name to a just war. Saddam is a weapon of mass destruction. I will never waiver in my belief that the world is safer now that Saddam is in jail.

_________

Pardon my editorializing, please - I’m writing on the fly here and I will move my editorial comments to OpEd later.

Brokaw lists some of the bin Laden-related terrorists attacks on U.S. (here and abroad) that happened during the Clinton administration. Brokaw asks - was the response of that administration too lax (again, paraphrasing), was enough done to prevent future attacks?

Clark says - Oh, they did stuff. I don’t know what they did and I don’t know why it didn’t work, but they did stuff. It’s Bush’s fault that bin Laden struck the U.S. 9 months after Clinton left office. Clark basically let Clinton off the hook and stuck all the blame for bin Laden on Bush.

Kucinich then said that Clinton’s way of trying to use the international community and cooperation was good, but Bush’s “unilateral” and “arrogant” way of doing things is not good.

Well, Clinton didn’t take out bin Laden, he did not make those responsible for the attacks under his administration pay, he did not prevent other attacks from happening.

My opinion - the Dems are wasting too much time saying what’s bad about Bush and not enough time saying what is good about them. These debates come off like anti-Bush rallies. Where’s the “a chicken in every pot” speeches?

[Will be updated]

Debate Alert

Tonight’s Debate:

7:00pm at the Peace Center inGreenville, South Carolina.

Broadcast on MSNBC, MSNBC Radio and moderated by Tom Brokaw.

Check with The Command Post for quotes and commentary.

S.C. Primary News 1/29

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
(See also today’s primary calendar in the Post & Courier)
12 p.m. Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1 p.m. “Candidate Welcome Lunch & Drop-In,” Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
6 p.m. “Heat It Up In January” Debate-Watching Party, Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
6 p.m. “South Carolina Victory” Debate-Watching Dinner & After-Party, Coliseum Ristorante (formerly Occasionally Blues), West End Market, 1 Augusta St., Greenville
6:30 p.m. Greenville Technical College Debate-Watching Assembly, Verne Smith Library/Technical Resource Center, Greenville Tech
6:30 Clemson University Debate-Watching Assembly, Lee Hall Auditorium on Campus, Clemson.
7 p.m. (doors close at 6) Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, 600 S. Main St., Greenville
8:30 p.m. S.C. Democratic Party Chairman’s Reception, Poinsett Restaurant, Westin Poinsett Hotel, 120 South Main St., Greenville
[Remaining Schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
According to Fox News, Clark made his stop in Charleston yesterday just a fuel stop for his plane so that he could still make it to Missouri and Arizona yesterday under FAA regulations for pilot rest.

Democrats distribute ballots, The State
S.C. requires parties to run their own presidential preference primaries (one of two states that still does so) and that usually means old-fashioned paper ballots.

Politics has a past in South Carolina, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Welcome, Dems, to an uneasy state, The Greenville News

Candidates aim for middle in South Carolina, USA Today

Steven Taylor points out that Dean is not airing ads in South Carolina, or any other state with a February 3 primary. Taegan Goddard has more.

Four Peas In a Pod, S.C. GOP News Release

Clyburn Endorses Kerry from my post yesterday.

Kevin McGeehee discusses the effect of the Kerry endorsement by Clyburn on Edwards and the possible withdrawal of Dean endorsements by some union leaders.

Clyburn to endorse Kerry, Greenville News

Kerry, Edwards vie for S.C. prize, The State
Photo of Edwards in Orangeburg

James Joyner links to and discusses Black voters play key role in S. Carolina, Missouri in the Washington Times.

Kerry, Edwards pursue black votes in South Carolina, Charleston Post & Courier
Black voter turnout to make a difference, Greenville News

Ranks of Hispanic voters swelling, Greenville News

Economy on minds in South Carolina, Raleigh News & Observer

Hopefuls try to woo disaffected workers, The State

Kerry likely target as rivals debate tonight in Greenville,Post & Courier

Some advice for the candidates, Lee Bandy, The State

Democrats try to reach state’s voters tonight, Greenville News

Local voters still in listening mode, Greenville News

Brokaw holds candidates to their word, Greenville News
Complete Transcript of Brokaw interview
Photo Gallery of Tom Brokaw doing the NBC Nightly News in Greenville.

Erwin ‘doggedly’ sought local debate, Greenville News

S.C. Young Democrats reveling in big night, The State

Three-ring media circus descends on Greenville, Greenville News
Photo Gallery of debate preparations

City rolling out debate red carpet, Greenville News

Debate worth more than money, Greenville News

Belton songbird to open debate, Greenville News

Wonkette has links to S.C.-related articles.

Remaining Schedule:
1/30: 7:30 a.m. “Breakfast with the Boys,” Palmetto Exposition Center, 1 Exposition Ave., Greenville
1/30: 11 a.m: Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
2/2: John Edwards, Seneca
2/3 7:30 p.m., Charleston County Democrats Election Bash, City Bar, 192 East Bay Street, Charleston

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com

Yesterday’s Primary News

Dean Pulls Ads

WaPo:

Rivals including front-runner John F. Kerry are buying TV ads in South Carolina and other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, but the former Vermont governor has chosen to forgo further advertising in this round, focusing instead on the Feb. 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington state, campaign officials said.

Meanwhile, according to the article, this is what the other contenders are spending for Semi-Super Tuesday:

* South Carolina, New Mexico and Oklahoma. Three candidates — Kerry, the senator from Massachusetts, Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark — are prepared to spend heavily in these states. Each has bought $400,000 to a little more than $500,000 in TV time.

• Missouri. Edwards yesterday invested about $120,000 in television ads, signaling he will challenge Kerry, who has put up more than $80,000 in this up-for-grabs state with the largest number of delegates at stake Tuesday.

• Arizona. Kerry and Clark are the only candidates so far to make substantial buys in Arizona: $147,000 and $203,000, respectively.

Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), who finished fifth in New Hampshire, has made much smaller buys in Arizona, Oklahoma and South Carolina, totaling $31,000.

via Political Wire, who notes about the WaPo piece:

But the kicker, sure to anger Dean contributors, is buried later in the article: Joe Trippi “forfeited a salary as a campaign manager but collected commissions — said to be as high as 15 percent in some cases — based on advertising buys.”

And now you know where at least part of that 40 million went. The Dean campaign’s big spending ways has left them choosing between advertising all the way through or holding onto some cash for Super Tuesday. With two states already lost, Dean can’t expect to get by on his good looks come this Tuesday.

Clyburn on FOX: Kerry can unite our country

Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-SC, on FOX this morning said he threw his support behind John Kerry because Kerry has the ability to “unite this country” and heal wounds that remain from the war in Vietnam. When asked why he didn’t endorse Edwards, Clyburn said he still respects Edwards, but felt Kerry was more electable.

Dean campaign "jumped the shark"

Political pundits on Fox Live this morning were sounding the death knell for the Dean campaign after replacing Joe Trippi last night. One reporter mentioned a comment on the Dean Weblog that the campaign had “jumped the shark.” Two internet references in one story.

The pundit spin on the Dean campaign continues to drive reality, which dovetails nicely with this post by Jay Rosen of NYU.

There is something almost nauseating about this cycle, when journalists can both predict the next turn in it and go on to excute that turn.

Lieberman: "pathologically optmistic"

The Hartford Courant helps us grapple with the question, “What is Joe Lieberman thinking?”

He wants to ignore the so-called experts, who think his campaign has gone from quixotic to desperate. Why, the whisperers Wednesday want to know, doesn’t he drop out? He kept saying he wanted to do better than expected in New Hampshire, into which he poured his heart, soul, indeed his life, for five weeks - and wound up pretty much where the polls said he would, a dismal fifth.

Yet there are no telltale signs that Lieberman feels he’s doomed. There are no extra wrinkles, no slouched shoulders, no gossip about blowups at the staff.

“Whatever genes God gave the rest of us to take time out to process disappointment, he didn’t get,” said Sherry Brown, his campaign chief of staff and longtime adviser. …

The answer to what keeps Lieberman going is in the three characteristics that define the Connecticut senator.

He’s foremost an analyst, seeing politics as a game of strategies where moves can be calculated and countered, and he sees the seven states voting Tuesday as winnable.

He’s also deeply religious, believing that what will be, will be and his mission is to practice Tikkun Olam, or doing good. That’s how he survived the 2000 presidential election, when he polled more votes than the Bush-Cheney ticket, but lost and dove back into his Senate work with nary a public complaint.

There’s another reason this 61-year-old man, a man who has what would seem to be everything in life, not to mention a place in American history as the first Jewish-American on a major party ticket, spent Wednesday trying to woo voters in a state that barely seems to know there’s a primary.

It’s probably his last shot at the White House. …

But the odds seem insurmountable: Kerry is rolling, Edwards is mounting a strong campaign and Clark has lots of money. “There’s not so much anything wrong with Lieberman,” said Phoenix-based pollster Earl de Berge, “but the other guys are now getting attention.”

Lieberman either wins something next week and looks viable, or logic - or something in his gut - will say it’s over.

Not that he’d betray any disappointment in his face or demeanor, not today and probably not next Tuesday. Whatever happens, said Brown fondly, there’s one constant to Lieberman: “He’s pathologically optimistic.”

GOPopup

I run a Google search tonight, and what do I see: a popup funded by the Grand Old Party. Here’s the proof; click to see life-sized. The World Wide Web: Last frontier for political advertising.

Statements from Dean and Trippi

From the Dean blog:

Statement by Governor Howard Dean
“I am deeply grateful to Joe Trippi, who has decided to leave the campaign. Joe has made enormous contributions not just to our campaign but to American politics – revolutionizing the way in which people are brought into the democratic process and helping hundreds of thousands of people to believe in political change again.

“I am pleased to announce that Roy Neel will be relocating to Burlington to assume the position of Chief Executive Officer of the campaign effective immediately. Roy brings enormous experience both in management and national politics. He will be an invaluable resource to our campaign.

“Last night the people of New Hampshire reaffirmed that their strong support for change and for a campaign based on standing up for what is right and delivering results not rhetoric.

“This campaign is a marathon not a sprint. I am committed to carrying our campaign through the coming weeks to primaries and caucuses all across the country. We will continue to offer the Democratic Party a candidacy based on courage and conviction and a campaign based on hope, not fear.

“This campaign is about all of us. I am grateful for what we have done together so far but our work is far from done. Now we must redouble our efforts, not simply to win the nomination but to change America.”

Statement from Joe Trippi
Dear Friends,

The Governor has asked Roy Neel to come in as CEO of the campaign.

I have resigned as campaign manager.

I’ve always believed that the most important thing was to change our country and our politics.

I’m proud of all of you and the work we have done together. I may be out of the campaign but I’m not out of the fight. Don’t give up — stay with Howard Dean’s cause to change America.

Thank you.

Joe Trippi

Dean Campaign: Trippi Gone, Neel in

Roy Neel long associated with Al Gore, will become the campaign’s CEO. It was reported that campaign manager Joe Trippi may stay on the payroll. But sources close to the Dean campaign told Fox News that Trippi is leaving the campaign altogether.

“Governor Dean asked Roy Neel to join the campaign CEO and Joe Trippi resigned as campaign manager,” said Dean campaign spokeswoman Tricia Enright.

Some sources say Trippi was asked to leave and some say he resigned. Either way, there is discord on the Dean staff.

AP:

Before leaving the campaign, Trippi thanked the staff, telling them how proud he was of their efforts. “I may be out of the campaign, but I’m not out of the fight,” Trippi was quoted as saying.

One official said Dean asked Trippi to stay aboard, but the Trippi declined.

Dean Shakeup?

Various reports coming through in email that Dean is going to shake up his campaign staff…

More as we get it.

Dean's Diminishing Dollars

Taegan Goddard reports on Dean’s shrinking campaign fund:

This item is buried in a Wall Street Journal story on yesterday’s primary: “The major Democratic contenders all have nearly exhausted their campaign treasuries; advisers say that even Mr. Dean, who raised an unmatched $40 million in 2003, has less than $5 million left. That leaves all the candidates largely dependent on attention from the news media to reach voters as they move from small venues and intensive personal campaigning to far-flung contests that play out almost entirely on television screens.”

He spent $35 million dollars and campaign season is just now kicking into high gear.

Goddard has more commentary and links.

Nader Still Making the Effort

Command Post contributor Ed Moltzen received this email from the Nader team today:

Dear Friend,

It is early, but so far it’s starting to look – once again — like the insurgents and the fresh voices in the 2004 elections may be ignored or marginalized by the powers that be.

Please take a minute today to visit the Nader 2004 Presidential Exploratory Committee website to let us know whether you think there needs to be another challenger to the entrenched status quo.

Should Ralph enter the 2004 elections to provide a non-corporate, real choice in November?

Visit our website today to:

1) Fill out our new volunteer questionnaire
;
2) Help us raise money to test the waters - every contribution counts
and we really need it right now to reach out to people
; and
3) Tell us what you think at info@naderexplore04.org

Ralph is going to decide soon based on what kind of support there is for a fresh attempt to advance the power and interests of the people. Your help today is critical.

Thank you,

The team at the Nader 2004 Presidential Exploratory Committee

Considering what happened when Nader ran in 2000, I assume there are many Republicans who would like to see him run again.

Can’t fault the guy for trying.

Edwards Rejects Edwards/Kerry Tickets

[AP]

Presidential candidate John Edwards on Wednesday rejected any notion of sharing the Democratic ticket with front-running rival John Kerry — unless he is at the top.

Asked on NBC’s “Today” show if he would accept second place on the Democratic slate to face President Bush in the fall election, Edwards said: “I think you’ve got the order reversed. I intend to be the nominee.”

Edwards said he would not be willing to be No. 2. “No, no. Final. I don’t want to be vice president. I’m running for president,” he said.

A New, Scientific, Foolproof, Intelligent Way of Determining Candidate Electability

Presenting, Slate’s Whack-a-Pol:

According to my whackings, Kerry is the most electable candidate.

Tracking the Pollsters

Real Clear Politics takes a look at how the pollsters fared in New Hampshire:

I assembled a brief (and admittedly crude) scoring system based on two criteria. First, I’ve tallied the overall point differential by which a pollster missed each candidate’s final numbers. For example, if a pollster projected Kerry to finish at 38% and Dean at 29%, and we now know the final returns were 39% Kerry and 26% Dean, the pollster missed Kerry’s number by 1 point and Dean’s by 3 for a total differential of 4.

Eh, just go read the whole thing and check out the chart.

They also have some thoughts on Zogby’s poll from yesterday that showed Kerry with only a three point lead.

The Week Ahead: Dean

It’s a big week for the Dem candidates. The primary schedule for February 3rd:

• South Carolina
• Missouri
• Delaware
• Oklahoma
• Arizona
• New Mexico
• North Dakota

The Command Post will take a look at each candidate’s schedule for the coming week. We’ll start with Howard Dean.

Dean will be traveling to the following cities between now and the next :

• Lansing, Michigan
• Greenville, South Carolina
• Columbia, South Carolina
• St. Louis, Missouri
  *Albuerque, New Mexico
• Phoenix, Arizona
• Seattle, Washington
• Milwaukee, Wisconsin

His campaing will be releasing a schedule of events for those cities today.

The only scheduled campaign event so far is:

February 1st is Super Goal Sunday for the Dean campaign. The idea here is to have Super Goal parties all over the country, with the goal being that each party raise at least $100 dollars and sign up ten new Dean supporters.

S.C. Primary News 1/28

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
8 a.m. Wesley Clark, Charleston
10 a.m. John Edwards, Fine Arts Center, S.C. State Univ., Orangeburg
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Note: As of late Tuesday evening, 200,000 S.C. residents were still without power following a winter storm earlier in the week.

Presidential candidate to visit SCSU today from the Orangeburg Times & Democrat discusses John Edwards’ trip to Orangeburg today.

Edwards packed for South Carolina after N.H. verdict from Ross Sneyd of the AP via Boston.com

Howard Kim writes in the Yale Daily News that “South Carolina, and not Iowa or New Hampshire, will be remembered as a crucial turning point in the 2004 Democratic Primaries.”

Taegan Goddard discusses the latest Survey USA poll for South Carolina:

According to a new Survey USA poll, Sen. John Edwards leads the South Carolina primary with 32 percent. Wesley Clark is second with 17 percent, Howard Dean is third at 16 percent and Sen. John Kerry is fourth at 13 percent. Just two weeks ago, Dean and Clark were tied for first.

Once again, Michael Graham offers a caveat regarding South Carolina polling for the Democratic primary.

Analysts say S.C. can seal it for Kerry in The State features analysis from Larry Sabato and Don Fowler.

After wins in Iowa and NH, Kerry must make up for lost time in SC from the Associated Press includes comments from Sabato, Scott Huffmon and former Governor Jim Hodges.

South Carolina Primary Looms Large from the Newhouse News Service quotes Dick Harpootlian, Ferrell Guillory and Don Fowler.

Military retirees urge better benefits by Lauren Markoe of Knight-Ridder discusses military retirees and veterans in S.C. and how they might vote.

Black voters play key role in S. Carolina, Missouri, Washington Times

Another article in The State discusses the reporting from around the country on the S.C. primary.

Mike questions the following tidbit from a Reuters story:

Republicans and independent voters can vote in South Carolina’s Democratic primary, but must sign a pledge publicly declaring themselves Democrats.

I recall some reporting of this before and I seem to remember comments in the local media that it wasn’t a legally binding pledge and had no impact on voting in state primaries later this year.

Lost Jobs Trump All in South Carolina Primary, Reuters

Mike also discusses something he heard on MSNBC:

Alex Witt on MSNBC:

“Dean says he’ll win South Carolina.”

The same Lawrence O’Donnell:

“That’s nuts.”

WIS is accepting questions from viewers for Friday’s candidate forum in Columbia.

Wyeth Ruthven provides an in-depth rundown of the South Carolina Primary for Taegan Goddard.

Democrats’ Greenville debate sparks party atmosphere, Greenville News

Forget the South, Democrats… Stop coddling the spoiled brat of presidential politics by Timothy Noah at Slate.

Jack O’Toole, a S.C. blogger and consultant, responds to Kerry’s comments on the South. The State also reports on Kerry’s remarks.

Kat, another S.C. blogger, discusses why she can no longer support Howard Dean.

Stephen Green discusses the upcoming Southern primaries.

Go Dubya discusses Clark’s chances in S.C.

Remaining Schedule:
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1 p.m. “Candidate Welcome Lunch & Drop-In,” Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
1/29: 6 p.m. “Heat It Up In January” Debate-Watching Party, Allen Temple Community Development Center, 404 Vardry St., Greenville
1/29: 6 p.m. “South Carolina Victory” Debate-Watching Dinner & After-Party, Coliseum Ristorante (formerly Occasionally Blues), West End Market, 1 Augusta St., Greenville
1/29: 6:30 p.m. Greenville Technical College Debate-Watching Assembly, Verne Smith Library/Technical Resource Center, Greenville Tech
1/29: 6:30 Clemson University Debate-Watching Assembly, Lee Hall Auditorium on Campus, Clemson.
1/29: 7 p.m. (doors close at 6) Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, 600 S. Main St., Greenville
1/29: 8:30 p.m. S.C. Democratic Party Chairman’s Reception, Poinsett Restaurant, Westin Poinsett Hotel, 120 South Main St., Greenville
1/30: 7:30 a.m. “Breakfast with the Boys,” Palmetto Exposition Center, 1 Exposition Ave., Greenville
1/30: 11 a.m: Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline. Other S.C. Links at Glenn Reynolds.com

Yesterday’s Primary News

Tracking the Reactions

Courtesy of Glenn Reynolds, a look at the reaction to Kerry’s New Hampshire win from blog pundits [for more reactions, see the comments on Reynolds’ post]:

The Jeff Jarvis summary: “Kerry is winning. Dean’s ‘temperament’ is hurting him. Dean and Edwards are running in the others’ tails. Lieberman is off-camera. Clark keeps the oxygen tent, running head-to-head with Edwards.”

Matthew Yglesias: “It’s interesting how much in the dubious ‘momentum’ sweepstakes hangs on whether John Edwards finishes third or fourth even though we know for sure that neither he nor Clark will win any delegates either way.”

Will Saletan: “[M]aybe Democrats should ask what they’re getting in Kerry. After watching him for a year and seeing him work New Hampshire, here’s my warning: You’re getting a guy who has plenty of selling points but can’t make the sale himself.”

Jacob T. Levy: “But the odd truth about the New Hampshire primary is that it doesn’t pick Presidents anymore. It doesn’t even pick nominees. What it does is put a good scare into the eventual nominee.”

David Adesnik: “My guess is that the subtleties of the Edwards-Clark finish won’t matter much, since both are depending on a strong showing in the South.”

Chip Griffin: “The Kerry team really has beautifully orchestrated this. The Curtain Cam shot on CNN all this time, waiting for Kerry, is priceless.”

Hugh Hewitt: “Dr. Dean is welcome to be my co-host any or all days from now until the 2nd.” I’d take that offer!

Kos: “Dean has enough money to limp on, but by all indications, he’s through. . . . Watch the establishment rally around Kerry to end this thing as quickly as possible. “

Jack O’Toole: “It’s been almost half a century since the Democratic party has elected a president without a Southern accent. Is that just an electoral fluke? Or does it tell us something important about what it takes for Democrats to win national elections?”

Dave Cullen: “A sizeable plurality would love to have Howard Dean as their president, but they’re convinced that they’re alone, so they have to vote for someone else that they think will appeal to other people.”

Wonkette: “This is our punishment for publishing exit polls. Kerry by double digits! And still Dean’s grimacing that spooky rictus. How much would Dean have to lose by for him to call it a loss?”

Donna Brazile: “I think Edwards is the sleeper. . . . More and more, people are looking at him now as the alternative to Kerry.”

Atrios: “I think people who are writing Dean’s obituary yet again are dead wrong. . . . How long before Clinton won his first primary in 1992? Who was the presumed nominee at this point? A certain Senator from Mass. if I remember correctly.”

Roger Simon: “It’s still bad news for those of us who wanted to see Edwards get a shot, but at least Kerry won’t have to pretend he’s Dean.”

John Ellis: “Back to Sunday’s script! Where did they leave that? Probably at the hotel!”

Armed Liberal: “I’m impressed that Dean could mount such a strong comeback … but then he gets up and makes his speech.”

Andrew Sullivan: “Dean gave arguments. Kerry spoke in packaged Shrumisms. Dean has a vision. Kerry has ambition. If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for Dean over Kerry in a heartbeat.”

Donald Sensing: “Among ‘military households’ (not further defined), Kerry got 35 percent, Dean 26, Clark 15 and Edwards 13 percent. So Kerry the lieutenant pulls more than twice the vote of Clark the general. General, you’ve just been further demoted.”

Oliver Willis: “Huge win for Kerry. Dean’s only around still because he has money, but he may push things down to the wire. Edwards may suddenly be vulnerable in South Carolina. Dead: Clark (had NH to himself and has squat to show for it), Lieberman, Kucinich, Sharpton (all three DOA).”

Kevin Drum: “Presumably Lieberman will now drop out, and for Clark and Edwards the next two weeks in the South and Midwest are make or break.”

Josh Marshall: “Dean said that New Hampshire had ‘allowed our camp to regain its momentum’ and that ‘we did what we needed to do tonight.’ And I think that’s right. But just barely. I think they’re in desperate shape. And I think they know it.”

Glenn makes a few more comments on the subject and has more useful links as well.

Union Leader wrap-up

The Union Leader has a good primary wrap-up article. I was particularly interested in this point:

Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, sagging to fifth place, rejected advice from some advisers to abandon his bid.

I guess it’s those advisers who told Drudge he would suspend his campaign. One wonders if they will eventually bring their candidate back to his senses… or at least help him with his math. Anyway…

With 87 percent of the precincts reporting, Kerry had 39 percent, Dean had 26 percent, Clark 13 percent, Edwards 12 percent, and Lieberman 9 percent.

Dean, the former five-term governor of Vermont who finished third in Iowa, lost New Hampshire by double digits — less than he needed for a complete rebound or to erase doubts about his viability.

He did manage about twice as many votes as either Edwards or Clark, and found solace in gaining a bit of ground since his disastrous Iowa finish and shrill election-night address.

Dean kept his emotions in check Tuesday night, telling supporters, “The people of New Hampshire have allowed all of you to hope again that we’re going to have real change in America.”

Edwards, who finished a surprise second in Iowa, said his double-digit finish is an improvement over his standing in polls before Iowa. He’s staking his candidacy on South Carolina, a centerpiece of next week’s contests. “Beyond South Carolina, I don’t want to make any predictions,” he said.

Ignoring his fifth-place showing, Lieberman declared, “We’re in a three-way split decision” and pointed his ragged campaign toward South Carolina, Delaware and Oklahoma.

Looking toward next week, Dean insisted he will “play to win in every single state,” overruling aides who urged a more cautious approach. The former Vermont governor plans to compete in South Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico and Arizona, which holds contests next Tuesday; Michigan and Washington state four days later; and Wisconsin, with its contest Feb. 17.

Several Dean advisers had urged him to pick fewer targets, cherrypicking states to conserve resources, but he vetoed the strategy, insisting that his campaign was muscular enough to compete nationally.

Dean has raised more than $200,000 in the 24 hours before the primary, but he has been spending money just as fast as raising it — and he will keep up the pricey pace with his new strategy.

Kerry also pledged to compete everywhere, but his twin victories should fuel the drive.

An AP analysis of the delegate count showed Kerry winning 14 delegates and Dean capturing eight, while Edwards and Clark appeared to finish below the 15 percent vote threshold needed to win any delegates.

Simulblog highlights

Excerpted quotes, lifted from my oft-updated simulblog…

Dean: “We’re going to change this country, one way or the other.” Hmm… a third-party rallying cry??

Kerry: “If I am president, I pledge…”
Crowd: “When! When! When! When! When!”
Kerry: “When I am president…”

Kerry: “Stand with us, and we will build a prosperity where Americans are not just working for the economy, but the economy is working for Americans. A prosperity where we will reduce the poverty of millions rather than reducing the taxes of millionaires.”

Edwards: “We’re going to see great victories on Feb. 3.”

Dean: “The only way to beat George Bush is to stand up to him all the time, not just when it’s convenient, not just some of the time.” [This begs the question: what if George Bush is right some of the time? Occasionally? Once in a blue moon? Do we will have to stand up to him “all the time”? But I digress.]

Kerry: “If balancing the budget is called liberal, then let’s go, you can go ahead and call me that. … I don’t think it’s very conservative to run up deficits. I don’t think it’s very conservative to trample on civil rights. … “

Lieberman: “I’m an independent-minded Democrat, and that’s the only kind that has a chance to beat George W. Bush.”

Wolf Blitzer: “We expected it to be closer” based on exit polls alone. Blitzer was very precise and emphatic all evening in his discussion of exit polls vs. “real votes” … seemed to want everything to be transparent to the viewers.

More here.

Clark leads Edwards for 3rd...

…by ~900 votes, with 81% of the precincts reporting.

Lieberman is ~5,600 behind, to put his optimistic claims in perspective.

Dean Speech Simulblog

As it happens:

• Keeps jacket on, holds mike in hand.

• Opens with: “We really are going to win this nomination, aren’t we!”

• Says they have “regained” the momentum.

• “Stand with us, to the very end, which is January [believe he said 5th], 2005.”

• “We can regain the moral leadership that this country had held since the end of World War I to the start of the Iraq invasion … and we will.”

• “This time we can have a president who really is a uniter, not a divider, and we will.”

• “The biggest loss that we’ve had in this country since George Bush became president is our loss of community,” … our sense that “we are all in this together.”

• “The president played the race card, and that alone entitles him to a one-way bus ticket back to Crawford, Texas.”

FOX cuts before the speech is complete …

Lieberman The Optimist

On FOXNews: “Thanks to the people of New Hampshire, we’re in a three-way split decision for third place!”

Says he is going to stay in the ring. Also just called Howard Dean “John Dean” by mistake. This isn’t a race, “it’s a cause.”

Lieberman: we're tied for third (!!)

Lieberman says he’s in a “three-way split decision for third place” … he’s spinning this as, the neighboring state’s guys split the hometown vote, but the rest was evenly divided … he doesn’t sound like a guy about to drop out.

Bob Woodward: “All of those people can count, and they’re realists in the end.” Dole, Woodward and Larry King all seem surprised at his optimism.

Dean On Fox: "I Hope We're Going To Win"

Not exactly the voice of confidence … but then became more optimistic in the rest of the interview. “We are going to take America back for American families.”

Live Speeches: Edwards

One America, instead of two (class warfare speech here):

There are two economies, two levels of health care, two public school systems, one for rich, one for poor.

35 million Americans living in poverty (Clark said there are 12 million), he wants to change that…

[cut away to Clark]

Live Speeches: Clark

Clark’s speech in progress:

I couldn’t stand by and watch 12 million children in poverty in the wealthiest nation in the world…

Couldn’t stand by day after day while our servicemen lost thier lives in an unecessary war in Iraq….

Stand up to Osama….

Better education for working class families….

Know what it’s like to struggle, father died, no money, working mother….as president he will never forget where he’s from and who he is for: America’s working family. Democratic party values…his party is all about values. Open the door to every person who shares these values.

When we take on Bush, we want everyone to join us…regardless of background or party registration…

Who's Out, Who's Not: Instant NH Analysis

If the numbers hold up, it looks like Kerry could have another impressive victory in New Hampshire. With 71% of Districts reporting CNN has called the race. Kerry appears to have won by around 15% of the vote. So the question now is who still has a chance and who doesn’t.

Read the Rest on the TCP-OpEd Page.

Kerry Speech Simulblog

OK … posting it as it happens … forgive the typos (we’ll see how much it varies from the stump):

• Opens with: “I love New Hampshire … and … and I love Iowa, too. And I hope with your help, to have the blessings and the opportunity to love a lot of other states in the days to come.”

• “I have spent my whole life fighting for what I think is right and against powerful special interests … and I have just begun to fight.”

(Bring it on chant breaks out.)

• “I have a message for the influence peddlers … big oil … special interests that now call the White House home: We’re coming, you’re going, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

• “This victory also belongs to the veterans who marched with us.”

• “I depended on the same band of brothers that I depended on 30 years ago … we’re a little older, and a little grayer … but I’ll tell you this: We still know how to fight for our country … I pledge that those who wear the uniform of the United States of America will have a voice and a champion in the Oval Office.”

• “Together we can lift our country up, up to the America that all of us know we can become. So stand with me.”

… and now FOX breaks to Edwards …

Now on CNN...

John “Comeback” Kerry is about to speak.

Just Wondering ...

… why is it relevant for FOXNews to describe Kerry as “His hair neatly combed?”

Kerry and Edwards Pick up Missouri Endorsements

Bakersfield.com: [login - laexaminer/laexaminer]

With just a week to go before Missouri’s Democratic presidential primary on Feb. 3, John Kerry and John Edwards picked up key endorsements Tuesday from separate sides of the state.

St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay endorsed Kerry during a telephone interview with The Associated Press. Meanwhile, Mike Kelley, a Missouri campaign aide for Edwards, said former Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver would endorse Edwards. Cleaver was expected to make it official at an afternoon news conference in Kansas City.

FOX: Dean Looking Past Next Tuesday

FOXNews TV: Dean staffers are looking past next Tuesday’s primaries, looking ahead instead to Michigan, Washington, and Wisconsin. There are 126 delegates up for grabs next Tuesday (including, most likely, the Gephardt endorsement as Missouri is in the mix).

Very close for third; Clark now leads narrowly

From CNN, with 56% reporting: Clark 13,736, Edwards 13,665.

Edwards on Larry King Live now. “I think it’s very encouraging. It’s remarkable what’s happened over the last few weeks … I was 20 points behind General Clark just two weeks ago.”

Acknowledges South Carolina is a must-win; says he also hopes to win Oklahoma.

“This process is going to go on a while. … This is a long-term campaign, and I intend to be the nominee. … I’m not interested in being vice president. I’m interested entirely in being president.”

Wolf Blitzer says 200,000 people voted, a Democratic primary record for New Hampshire.

Dean: Dems need an outsider, I'm their guy

Dean is on Larry King Live. Says he feels “good.” “We came in a solid second, it looks like, and that’s good… I think we did what we needed to do.”

“This is going to be a discussion about how much change we need in Washington. … I think the only way to beat George Bush is going to be to have someone come in from outside Washington…”

More on my blog.

Seven Primaries Next week

On February 3, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina all hold democratic primaries.

In those 7 states there are 269 delegates at stake, more than 12 percent of the 2,162 needed for nomination. There were 45 delegates at stake in the Iowa caucuses and only 22 in New Hampshire.

Next Tuesday will offer a number of firsts. It will be the first mult-state contest. Next Tuesday will include the first contest in the South, South Carolina. Arizona and New Mexico will be the first contests in the West.

According the Associated Press:

Democratic leaders hope to see a nominee emerge sometime over the next few weeks under this year's compressed primary schedule. Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe devised the front-loaded calendar to produce an early nominee.

Cross-posted from California Yankee.

At least 10 percent

CNN’s Jeff Greenfield points out that Kerry hasn’t run a single ad in the Feb. 3 states yet (they start tomorrow), but predicts he’ll be ahead in a lot of the polls simply based on momentum. Bill Schneider is talking about this too — the issue of “bounce.” He says 10% had been considered the magic number for whether Kerry would get a significant New Hampshire bounce.

Kerry will win by at least 10 percent, CNN projects.

“It’s a pretty doggone impressive victory… I think this puppy is going to get wrapped up in a couple weeks… Two weeks, we’re going to have a pretty good idea who the nominee of the Democratic Pary is.” —James Carville

FOX Exit Poll: How The Late Deciders Voted

The breakdowns on the NH voters:

Late Deciders (last days of campaign)
* 31% Kerry
* 27% Dean
* 18% Edwards
* 13% Clark

Young voters 18-29
* 35% Dean
* 33% Kerry
* 10% Clark
* 9% Edwards

Independents
* 34% Kerry
* 26% Edwards
* 13% Edwards
* 12% Clark

And this: “Did iraq war make US safer against terrorism?”
* 70% No
* 30% Yes

The campaign that never ends

“We could end up next week where everybody wins, and the race goes on and on.” —CNN’s Bill Schneider, noting that Clark is the front-runner in OK, Edwards in SC, Kerry in MO, and Dean thinks he can win AZ and Lieberman possibly DE.

John Kerry is going to speak shortly. (Wants to “get out theere in front of the cameras, and get out of the state before the snow comes,” sais Wolf Blitzer.) I’ll be simul-blogging.

CNN is saying that Kerry will win by about 10%. Sounds like this is a combined analysis of the exit-poll numbers compared to the precincts now reporting.

SHOCKER! Bush Wins NH Rep. Primary

… with 94% of the vote. Reported widely.

CNBC Issues Poll

CNBC exit poll on the most important issue to NH voters:

• 26% Healthcare
• 22% Iraq
• 21% Economy
• 10% Education

Bush Wins GOP Primary

President Bush has scored an impressive victory in the Republican primary, with over 94% of the vote in a 14 candidate race. Fox News has projected him the winner.

MSNBC: Kerry Wins By Double Digits

This also means Dean LOSES by double digits … 39% Kerry, 24% Dean.

CNN's Tally

22% and the race already called:

CNN Calls Winner

CNN just called the primary at 8:20 p.m.: Kerry with 39%.

FOX News: Kerry Wins

FOXNews has called the NH Primary: John Kerry winning with 38% of the vote.

CNBC Exit Poll: What Mattered

This just off CNBC TV - exit poll asked voters about what swayed them. The responses (vague as they are):

• 29%: Candidate stands up for what they believe in
• 22%: Candidate can beat bush
• 13%: Candidate has a positive message
• 12%: Candidate cares about me

Live From New Hampshire...

It’s The Estimated Prophet, who braved the freezing cold today to conduct a poll of his own:

My exit polling experience was good and affirming- despite the cold and people just rushing by. I met many dedicated folks from all camps and connected well with some good people. The actual collection of exit poll data by ballot was less successful. My method was to make eye contact, smile and then ask folks if they would like to participate. A large number of folks told me they had already completed CNN and/or Los Angeles Times polls CNN being two pages, while continuing on. A great many people had cell phones clamped to their heads as they headed for their cars.

4 Republican folks spoke with me, 3 Bush, one Clark/McCain write in.
Here is the text of my sign, (posted here yesterday) for clarity:

I am a freelance writer who publishes a weblog on the Internet.
I am conducting an informal exit poll and survey. In this age of media blitz and daily polls, “electability” and “anybody but Bush”, the question I am exploring is whether people are voting for the candidate they are most aligned with, or choosing to cast their vote more strategically.

The survey is anonymous and takes less than 30 seconds to complete. Thank you to all who choose to participate. Stop by and see the results.

That final sentence followed by the web address.

The following was on the poll “ballot”.

Which candidate is most closely aligned with your values and vision for our country?
Clark
Dean
Edwards
Kerry
Kucinich
Lieberman

And a parallel column asking:

For which candidate did you cast your vote?

Followed again by the alphabetical list.

A disclaimer. The associate that generated the list and produced the 600 copies on card stock left out Reverend Al Sharpton from the list. I did not notice and was informed at mid-day by my associate of the blunder. I waited to get called on it; I admit it does make me look stupid, or worse. I apologize and take full responsibility for the oversight. No exit poll balloter complained. A press guy who was looking at my project did snap one ballot up; I asked why and he said he just wanted to have one. This is before I was made aware of the oversight.

Results

From just before 8 am until 6 pm saw me receive only 92 exit poll ballots.
Where the Candidate most closely aligned with ones vision was the one voted for:
Kerry 27
Dean 22
Edwards 10
Clark 7
Lieberman 6
Kucinich 0

Where the Candidate voted for was a strategic departure from the “closely aligned with your values and visions” candidate we see:

Clark gave no strategic votes away
Dean gives Kerry 3
Dean gives Clark 1
Edwards gives Clark 1
Edwards gives Dean 3
Edwards gives Kerry 2
Kerry gives 1 Lieberman

Kucinich gives Dean 3
Kucinich gives Edwards 2
Lieberman gives Edwards 1
Lieberman gives Kerry 3

One ballot had multiple candidates checked, “Heart with Kucinich.” voted Kerry
Totals:
Kerry 36
Dean 28
Edwards 13
Clark 9
Lieberman 7
Kucinich
Asides:
Kerry folks wrote the most comments, mentioning his strength on women’s issues, his presidential “resume’” , his perceived ability to “Beat Bush”, the latter common themes.

Dean was next , “Faith in his vision”, and “his vision” being the comments
Anyone but Bush was said to me a great many times.

Projections

The polls have officially closed.

Fox projection:

Kerry - 38
Dean - 24
Edwards - 13

With Clark a distant 4th, one wonders how long he will hold on for.

OTB Live NH Blogging

As with Iowa, I’ll do this as one more-or-less frequently updated post rather than as a series. I’ll send pings occasionally so that updates will show on blogrolling.com-empowered lists. This all presumes that my site host cooperates; service has been sluggish even though it was restored a couple hours ago.

The polls close in 30 minutes but, unlike Iowa, it doesn’t look like there will be any surprises in the order of finish. That means we’ll get several hours of candidates, handlers, and pundits trying to spin the results, engaging in wild guesses as to what it all mean, who’s dropping out, and so forth. I tend to be fully in the mix.

Fred Barnes made the interesting point on Fox Special Report earlier that this race now reminds him of the 1976 Republican contest between President Gerald Ford and then-California Governor Ronald Reagan. Ford won Iowa, New Hampshire, and some other early primaries but Reagan, the ideological candidate, managed to hang on all the way through the convention. Barnes thinks Dean is, by analogy, Reagan. Interesting—and Kevin Drum said much the same thing minus the 1976 reference—several days ago. We shall see

Half Hour Until Closing

Last call for exit polls:

Latest one shows:

Kerry 34
Dean 31
Edwards 12
Clark 9

Fox is just shying away from predicting a Kerry win, while CNN is saying that if Kerry doesn’t win by a large margin, then he really lost.

Update:

Kerry 37
Dean 25
Edwards 13

Exit Polls: Stats

PoliticsNH.com:

Why New Hampshire Democrats and independents voted as they did:

ISSUES: Health care, Iraq and the economy were the most important issues to voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.

INDEPENDENTS: Almost four in 10 said they were registered as independents, suggesting a high independent turnout this primary.

GENDER: Almost six in 10 voters were women.

INCOME: Four in 10 voters made $40,000 or less; a fourth of the voters made $50,000 to $75,000.

IDEOLOGY: Half the voters said they consider themselves liberals, with almost one in six of the full sample saying they consider themselves very liberal. Four in 10 said they were moderates.

DECISION TIMING: About half of the voters said they had decided on a candidate in the last week.

TAX CUTS: Most of these Democratic primary-goers favored rolling back at least some of President Bush’s tax cuts.

PERSONAL FINANCES: Almost four in 10 said their family’s financial situation is worse now than it was four years ago, while roughly the same number said it was about the same.

FEELINGS ABOUT BUSH: Half the voters said they were angry at Bush, while another third said they were dissatisfied but not angry.

WAR IN IRAQ: Sentiment was strong against the war in Iraq, with four in 10 saying they strongly disapprove of the war and another two in 10 saying they are somewhat disapproving of the war.

TERRORISM: About three-fourths of voters said they remain worried about the possibility of another major terrorist attack in the United States.

UNIONS: Almost one in five voters said they were from union households.

The Money Winners in NH

From Open Secrets:

John Kerry may be leading in the polls for today’s New Hampshire presidential primary, but when it comes to campaign contributions within the Granite State, Howard Dean has an edge over the senator.

Howard Dean raised nearly $185,000 from individuals in New Hampshire—almost double that of any other presidential candidate—in the first nine months of 2003. Kerry, who surprised fellow Democratic contenders by winning the Iowa caucuses last week, garnered more than $94,000 from his New Hampshire supporters. Taking in far less money were John Edwards ($28,000) and Joe Lieberman ($22,500). Dennis Kucinich raised a little more than $8,200 from state residents, and Wesley Clark, who only began fund-raising a few weeks before the third-quarter contribution reports were due, raised just $6,800.

Richard Gephardt, who withdrew as a candidate last Tuesday after finishing fourth in the Iowa caucuses, raised close to $25,000 from New Hampshire supporters in the first nine months of 2003.

Though he faces no opponent for the Republican nomination, President Bush raised $244,000—or 32 percent more than Dean—from individuals in the state through Sept. 30.

Kucinich Connects with the Young Crowd

Or does he?
Although he claimed in an VH1 interview that he likes - or at least understands - hip-hop, Kucinich didn’t fare so well on a pop quiz:

Kucinich said he wasn’t familiar with the way Snoop Dogg creates words by adding “izzle” endings to it. He also didn’t know Eminem’s real name (Marshall Mathers), or that Justin Timberlake used to be a member of *NSYNC.

But he did get points for knowing what team NBA rookie phenom LeBron James plays for (Cleveland Cavaliers) and for knowing the name of Michael Jackson’s ranch (Neverland Ranch).

Fo shizzle, Dennis. Fo shizzle.

A Sampling of What the Voters Were Thinking

[Excerpts from this article]

Barry Pallino, 23, an accountant, said he went for Kerry. “I like his policy on the environment,” Pallino said.

A retired teacher who gave her name only as Susan, said she voted for Wesley Clark. “I like his stand on the military and his statement on Iraq, since I have a son in the military,” she said.

In Salem, independent Marjorie Aronis, 41, voted for Bush in the 2000 general election, but voted Tuesday for Joe Lieberman. If Lieberman wins the Democratic nomination, she would be happy with either him or Bush, she said.
“Out of all the Democrats, he seems the most moderate,” she said. “All the others are out too far to the left.”

Muriel Pelletier, a Republican from Manchester, also said she likes Lieberman but not enough to change allegiance from Bush. “He stuck to what he believes. I have good vibrations about him,” he said.

Ernest Corriveau, 68, an independent from Salem, voted for Bush last time and would probably vote for him again, but voted for John Edwards on Tuesday.
“I feel if (Bush) is going to lose I should pick the best Democrat in the primary,” he said.

Corriveau, a Korean War veteran, said he picked Edwards because he’s young.
“He seems to have fresh ideas and I have a particular dislike for John Kerry,” said Corriveau.

Paula Graves, 57, of Salem hasn’t voted for six years, but registered as a Democrat on Tuesday so she could vote for Clark. “I think Clark’s got the experience,” Graves said. “I think he’s got what it takes just because of the way the world is right now.”

Debbie Kimball, 47, a registered Democrat in Salem, picked Kerry because of his positions on education and health care. She also thinks its important he’s a veteran. “I have a nephew over in Iraq. … I’d like to see them all come home. I hate war. I think everybody does,” she said.

Donna Mae Dagata, 55, another Salem Democrat, said she voted for Kerry because “he stands for American working people.”

Kieran Fallon, 46, a Democrat from Salem, voted for Edwards because of his positive message. “Tone is important. I get tired of the negative things,” he said.

John and Kimberly Barrett of Manchester said they liked Edward’s populist rhetoric. “He’s more genuine than anyone who’s come along in quite a while,” John Barrett said. “He’s a very straightforward and honest guy.”

Lieberman finished?

From the Drudge Report: “JOE LIEBERMAN CONTEMPLATES ‘SUSPENDING’ HIS CAMPAIGN, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE…”

Media Against Dean?

This from WaPo:

The New Hampshire exit poll that the major networks are using today asks mostly straightforward questions: Are you male or female; white, black or Hispanic; liberal, moderate or conservative? Who did you vote for? When did you decide? Did you pick your candidate because you think he can defeat George Bush or because he agrees with you on the major issues?

But on one of the two questionnaires being used, there’s this zinger: “Regardless of how you voted today, do you think Howard Dean has the temperament to serve effectively as president?”

I wonder if we’ll see the answers to that question. I’d also like to see them ask the same question of all the other candidates.

Six Points of Separation

Latest whispers out of NH:

Kerry - 36
Dean - 30
Edwards and Clark - 12

Polls close in about 2 1/2 hours, some in 1 1/2 hours.

Standing on the Corner Watching All the Voters Go By

The latest - if crytpic - story on PoliticsNH.com:

On primary day we hear:

4:30pm

- We hear there might be a good reason why John Kerry did a last minute trip to wave at cars in Manchester at the corner of Granite and Canal Streets.

.

A Quick Check On Voter Turnout

LACONIA, NH- During a break from work during the late morning and again after I left work, I made the rounds to some of the polling places here in Laconia as well as in the nearby towns of Belmont and Gilford. Descriptions of voter turnout as of 4 P.M. ran the range from “up and down” to “heavy”. My home ward in Laconia was a little slow during the morning, but the poll workers said that it wasn’t unusual.

“It always picks up a lot after people leave work. ‘Bout half of them stop on their way home from work and others go home first to take care of their kids before coming here,” said one of the workers I talked with after casting my ballot.

Checking in with one of the neighboring wards showed a somewhat steadier stream of voters in and out. The opinion there reflected that of my own ward – “It’ll pick up after folks get off work.”

I stopped by the Gilford Junior/Senior High School, the polling place for the town of Gilford and found that there had been quite a flurry of voting in the morning that had dropped off after the first hour and was just picking up again. The same was true at in Belmont, where polling was held at the middle school.

This pattern makes me think that the higher level of morning voting had something to do with the fact that the polls were located at schools. Perhaps it allows parents to vote after dropping their kids off at school?

A quick check with a source in Waterville Valley shows voter turnout was also sporadic, with the polls-at-the-school pattern being repeated up there as well. My brother, the other half of the Weekend Pundit team, saw the same thing in Concord, though he wasn’t able to comment on the level of voter turnout.

Later this evening I expect to hear from a poll worker in Plymouth to get her take on the day’s voter activity.

Now Open: New Hampshire Primary Chat

We’re opening the Command Post chat room so Command Post readers can talk with each other live about today’s New Hampshire Primary, the news coverage of the event, and politics in general.

Here are the basic facts:

• Join the chat by clicking the link below

• Register your nickname and password (great idea to use the same Nick as you do in our comments)

• Select the “Default” room

• Click the “Chat” button

Last night’s Iowa Caucus chat was a lot of fun and informative for all, and we hope this is, too. Keep it clean and respectful, and have fun.

Exit Poll Talk

According to exit polls from various sources, health care was the number one issue on the minds of New Hampshire Democrats who voted today. Of less concern, but still importan, were the were in Iraq and the economy.

Speaking of exit polls, today was “first official electoral test of the National Election Pool (NEP), the successor to the much-maligned Voter News Service (VNS).”

VNS was the consortium of news organizations — ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, Fox News Channel, CNN and The Associated Press — that provided exit polling and analysis during the 2000 elections and helped lead off a monthlong electoral debacle by mistakenly calling Florida for Al Gore, followed hours later by premature projections that Bush won.

Hopefully, NEP will fare better.

NH Chat Opens At 5 PM EST

Hello from the Philadelphia International Airport, where I await a delayed flight to Chicago. As I sit, I simply wanted to remind our readers that we’ll open the Command Post Chat Room tonight at 5 PM EST for discussion of the New Hampshire returns, the press coverage, and ultimately, live critique of the victory and concession speeches. We did the same for the Iowa Caucuses and the State of the Union, and a good time was had by all in each case.

In the meantime, sit back, reload the page often, and enjoy what should be an increasingly frequent series of updates about the Granite State proceedings. Blog you from Chicago …

NRO: Kerry 36, Dean 31

National Review’s The Corner reports: “Sources say in early returns: Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12, Clark 12.” Link via Drudge.

UPDATE, 4:52 PM: Wonkette has very similar numbers from her sources: 37-30-12-12. She has Lieberman at 7.

For What It's Worth: Early Returns

Command Post sources have been able to obtain some early exit poll numbers:

Kerry 36
Dean 31
Edwards 12
Clark 12

Another source emails that Dean is leading Kerry, 34 to 33.

Don’t put too much stock in these numbers. At this hour, they are subject to change within seconds. But we will keep you posted on any other early returns. Because speculation is half the fun.

Dean Does the Daily Show

Transcript of a very funny interview Jon Stewart did with Howard Dean last night.

[ed note: Transcript reprinted from From National Review Online. I did watch the show last night and for those of you who didn’t see it, it was very funny. Dean showed a great sense of humor and an nice ability to be self-deprectating.]

[NRO:]This is a transcript from Comedy Central’s January 26 Daily Show: an interview between the show’s host, Jon Stewart, and former Vermont governor Howard Dean. The transcript is taken from National Journal’s “Hotline.”

[Hotline’s] Note: The interview featured Stewart and Dean having a conversation — their actual words are noted with quotes — but being played over the conservation were Dean and Stewart’s thoughts. The two recorded the voice-overs, which are noted in italics.

Stewart: “I want to thank you for taking the time to sit down with us” [Image pops up over his shoulder of Stewart on the cover of Newsweek, Stewart smiles.]

Dean: “Thank you for the opportunity, unfortunately I don’t have that much time.” [Image pops up over his left shoulder of Dean on two covers of Newsweek, Dean smiles.]

[Cuts to Stewart, where in addition to his one cover, he adds the image of himself on the cover of Cat Fancy.]

Stewart: “Obviously, a difficult week in Iowa, wish you could have done better … you did an interview with Diane Sawyer … do you consider those damage control interviews?”

Dean: ‘Good question, Cronkite.’ “Well they are certainly gonna help some…”

Stewart: “\How will you control the damage from this?” ‘This is going great!!’

Dean: ‘You’ve got five minutes, jackass.’

Stewart: “The media has tried to pigeonhole you as an angry guy.”

Dean: ‘The press, those no good $#!&%.’

Stewart: “Governor, are you angry now?”

Dean: “Certainly not.”

Stewart: “How bout now?”

Dean: “No.”

Stewart: “Let’s talk issues [long, uncomfortable silence] … why don’t you start?”

Dean: “Health insurance for every single American — we are the only country in the world…”

Stewart: ‘Da dum … I eat buttons.’

Stewart: “Let’s talk endorsements — when you found out that Al Gore wanted to endorse you, how bad did you want to get out?” ‘I’m on fire!’

Dean: “Actually, I thought Al Gore’s endorsement was a good endorsement.”

Stewart: “Talk about your position on same sex marriage.”

Dean: “We actually chose not to do gay marriage in our state. What we did was to say that every same sex couple could have the same rights as everyone else.”

Stewart: ‘Mrs. Jon Dean, Mr. Howard Stewart, Howard and Jon Dean, Dr. and Mr. Jon Dean Stewart…’ “You’re also a doctor, are you a Bill Cosby doctor or a doctor doctor?”

Dean: “I’m a doctor doctor, internal medicine.”

Stewart: “If you don’t mind, could you tell me what this is … is this normal?” [Lifts up shirt.]

Dean: ‘Man, this guy bruises like a grape.’

Stewart: “I know this is a bizarre way to do an interview.”

Dean: “I can’t wait to see it. When does it go on?”

Stewart: “On Monday…”

Dean: ‘I bet this is going to air in Michigan, and Arizona and Oklahoma and New Mexico … keep it together Howard, it’s only a list of states.’

Stewart: “Our show is a perfect venue to talk to young viewers.”

Dean: “I find that young viewers care about things like the environment and renewable energy…”

Stewart: “Younger.”

Dean: “People care about green grass and not spending any more money than they…”

Stewart: “Younger.”

Dean: “People care about cleanliness.”

Stewart: “You know what, can you just jiggle your keys.”

S.C. Primary News 1/27

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Previous Primary News update

Today’s Schedule:
9 p.m., Blues Traveler concert for Wesley Clark, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Michael Graham discusses S.C. polling and John Kerry’s recent comments.

6 of the 7 remaining candidates are confirmed for the Center for Community Change forum in Columbia Friday. Howard Dean hasn’t confirmed yet. The Blues Traveler concert for Clark tonight has been cancelled due to weather conditions. Sharpton campaigned in the state yesterday and his event last night was cancelled due to weather.

The S.C. chapter of the DLC is sponsoring a pre-debate survey online. It includes a mechanism to submit questions for individual candidates. The deadline for completing the survey is Wednesday night at 11:59 (I’m assuming since the date on the survey press release at SC Hotline says Wednesday the 29th that they meant Wednesday the 28th since the debate itself will be over by 11:59 p.m. on the 29th.)

Forget the South? from ABCNews.com features John Kerry’s remarks on the South.

Glenn Reynolds links to a Tom Maguire post on the Kerry remarks. Reynolds also links to Wyeth Ruthven’s post found below and to a list of S.C. political links at GlennReynolds.com.

Wyeth Ruthven discusses S.C. poll numbers and Kerry’s remarks on the South.

Mike also discusses the poll numbers.

S.C. primary poll has Edwards on top, The State, 1/26/04

The State features an article today on the resurgence of the Young Democrats in South Carolina and features a picture of Sunday’s Generation Dean rally in Columbia.

Democratic campaign poised to shift to South Carolina, Greenville News, 1/27/04:

Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean are pressing their campaigns in South Carolina, as is Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman. U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich is sticking in the race, too.

Armstrong said Kerry now has 11 people in South Carolina, as many as U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri had when he dropped out after Iowa and far less than some of the others.

Clark has 55 paid staffers operating out of Columbia and regional offices, an increase of 19 in two weeks. Edwards campaign reported nine, plus others from a post-Iowa influx. The Dean and Lieberman campaigns couldn’t be reached for comment, but on Jan. 12 reported 35 and seven staffers, respectively.

Democrats and God, The State, 1/27/04

Older black women a primary key, The State, 1/26/04

Sharpton tells voters he will not drop out, Associated Press, 1/26/04

Make-or-break outcome likely in S.C. Democratic vote, Charleston Post & Courier, 1/25/04

Democrats in state see long-term gains, Greenville News, 1/25/04

A Candidate’s Guide to South Carolina, The State, 1/25/04

Choosing to vote is the most important primary decision by Joe Erwin, 1/25/04

Campaign tuned to voices of minorities, Charleston Post & Courier, 1/25/04

Lights. Cameras. Democracy. by Andy Arnold

A Regular Guy by John G. Lee of Carolina Conservative (column on Edwards.)

Remaining Schedule:
1/28: John Edwards,
1/28: Wesley Clark, Charleston
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30:Candidate Forum, Center for Community Change, Township Auditorium, Columbia
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Previous Primary News update

Inside the Mind of the Undecided

OregonLive got two undecided voters to blog their thought process.

Colin Elliot:

George Bush has always impressed me with his ability to stand up to international politics. But the domestic spin on the war has not impressed me at all, and may negate what I feel is good military strategy overseas.

Chris Snethen:

A shout-out yesterday from Poynter.org included a bit of a swipe at both myself and Colin for having voted Republican in the last election (in my case, the last two) yet still declaring ourselves undecided. It’s a bias I run into frequently when I tell folks what I’m doing here AND that I voted for Dole and Bush. You throw that in with the fact I’m a registered Republican and folks have a hard time swallowing the fact I’m undecided.

It will be interesting to follow these two men to their voting conclusion.

Primary Roundup, v.1

What’s being said around the country, the world and on the web about the primaries:

• New Hampshire Test for Democrat Candidates

Kerry, for one, is refusing to be buoyed too much by the Newsweek poll, which actually concluded that in a head-to-head with Bush, he would win a presidential election.

“I still resist it, and purposely, because I was so far behind a few weeks ago, and things change,” he told CNN.

• McCain in N.H. for Bush

McCain on Monday swept through the state that delivered his maverick 2000 campaign a surprise victory to stump for his former rival, President George W. Bush. The Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign timed his visit to draw a bit of attention away from the Democrats running in today’s contest - many of whom have tried with varying success to cast themselves in McCain’s image.

• Candidates reach out to young people, but are they listening?

Chris Strout has noticed the presidential candidates are making an extra effort to attract college students, but he doubts many students are following the campaigns so far.

• Undecided, and out of time:

Anybody-but-Bush is who I’m voting for,” said Mr. Wechsler, a probation officer, clutching Edwards pamphlets and running down an icy sidewalk to a nearby Kerry event, adding that he hoped to catch Gen. Wesley K. Clark later. “I’m trying to figure out who is most electable, so I’m doing serious shopping still.”

Stay tuned for part two of the trip around the media, later this afternoon.

Blogged For Posterity: First Vote Photo

Brendan Loy, another of our intrepid contributors covering New Hampshire, caught the first vote cast in New Hampshire :

He also did a riveting, minute by minute recap of 32 votes cast in Dixville Notch and Hart’s location early, early this morning.

Al Franken: Bodyguard of Free Speech

Comedian Al Franken body slammed a Dean Heckler yesterday, knocking the protester to the ground and breaking Franken’s glasses in the process.

Franken claims that he was just defending free speech. The heckler, a Lyndon Larouche supporter, was shouting Dean down as he attempted to give a speech when Franken came up behind him and pulled a Hulk Hogan.

[via email from New Hampshire]

Judgment Day ... for Pollsters and the Press

The last two days, the television media has been dominated by the story of Dean’s possible comeback in NH. The impetus for these stories was the Zogby Tracking polls which showed Dean pulling even with Kerry, statistically speaking. The problem that the big media didn’t seem to want to address was that several other tracking polls had very different forcasts. Almost all had Kerry’s margin of victory at +10 percentage points. The Boston Globe has Kerry up by 17% and the ARG has had Kerry with as much as an 18% lead over Dean as recent as yesterday. The reason for this huge discrepancy is that the Zogby poll that everyone has been citing factored in “leaners”, i.e. of the undecided who leans where. One the one hand this methodology can help to forcast where the undecided are going to fall in the critical moment, but on the other there is a certain risk in assuming that these “undecided” can describe which way they are truly leaning with any sort of accuracy.

Its important to note that Zogby’s latest tracking numbers do not factor in leaners and thus reflect similar percentages to the other tracking polls. This latest poll shows Kerry leading with 37% and Dean in second with 24%. That’s a pretty large margin.

The outcome of today’s contest will tell us something about the methodology of factoring in leaners and also about the ability of big media to take differring methodologies into account when reporting on polls.

Clark Takes Commanding Lead in NH Primary!

Well, okay, as of 1:11AM EST out of 24 Democratic Primary votes cast in Dixville Notch and Harts Location, Wesley Clark took 14 (58%), Kerry takes 8 (33%) Dean and Edwards both tie at 4 (17% each), Lieberman takes 1 (4%), while Kucinich and Sharpton draw a goose egg. It’s gonna be a long day. Go get some sleep, why don’t ‘cha?

(Numbers from The Concord Monitor)

Record Voter Turnout Expected In New Hampshire

LACONIA, NH- In a report from WMUR-TV, the New Hampshire Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, predicts a record voter turnout for Tuesday’s primary.

Gardner expects 184,000 people to vote in the Democratic primary, and 100,000 to vote in the Republican primary. While this won’t be an overall record due to the uncontested Republican primary, the Democratic turnout is expected to be the largest since 1992.

A Gambler's Guide to the N.H. Primary

FOXNews gives you all the inside dish on the NH Primary. Example:

“Polls are a pain. We get so many calls, my neighbors toy with pollsters for fun.”

Voters in New Hampshire are about eight times more likely to be polled than in Iowa, where quadrennial complaints about too many annoying polls and robo-calls could be heard long before caucus night. Weekend polling in New Hampshire right before the primary often skews.

“I’ll see a speech or two this weekend by the guys I like, and decide on Tuesday.”

The political appeals process is considered fun in New Hampshire. People both soak up and feed off of the volatility. Granite Staters are famously tuned in and are notoriously late deciders.

“This is the state sport.”

Don’t underestimate voter sophistication in New Hampshire. Thousands of activist families have been at this for over a year. Some folks play games just to keep the state in the history books time after time.

Voters force candidates to take “the test” until the very last minute, knowing that in the frantic final days, the chances of a “New Hampshire moment” increase. Those “moments” can alter voters’ decisions in the last 24 hours before the primary.

Dean predicts comeback, takes swipe at media

So say CNN:

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean said Monday that he is making a comeback in New Hampshire, and predicted he would close the gap with Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts before the Democratic primary Tuesday.

“I think we can. It’s very close,” he said in an interview on CNN’s “Wolf Blitzer Reports.” “We’ve been surging in the last few days …

… After taking a drubbing for his growling performance after coming in third in the Iowa caucuses, Dean took a swipe at the news media.

“I never worry about the news media being fair. The news media does what the news media does. They’re an entertainment businesses at least as much as the news media,” he said.

“I think you report the news, you create the news and that’s what you guys do. And that’s fine.”

Challenged by Blitzer that the media did not create his performance in Des Moines, Dean said, “But you chose to play it 673 times in one week. That’s your privilege.”

Signs Of The Times

Like some kind of alien lifeform, campaign signs have sprouted up in front yards and on top of snow banks lining the roads. It’s not like they pop up here and there, but explode with a scary sameness – all identical clones, saying the same thing – VOTE FOR ME!! Not The Other Guy!!

Whether those responsible for the overnight appearance of these soon-to-be reminders of the New Hampshire Primary believe that seeing sign after sign after sign will sway our decision about whom to vote for, or whether it is merely ritual, is unknown. But there they are, nonetheless.

Seeing these signs everywhere has made me wonder one thing above all others -

Who’s going to pick them up after the election?

Or do they slowly pull themselves back underground like 17-year locusts, waiting for the next cycle to come about in four years time before they burst forth again?

One can find Tuesday’s polling places without need of directions. Just look for the conglomeration of campaign signs of all of the candidates surrounding a particular building. Chances are you’ll have found the ward house or town hall or other public building being used to hold the voting booths. On Tuesday there will be no trouble spotting a polling place – look for the multitude of signs to be joined by almost frozen examples of humanity as they hold even larger examples of those previously mentioned alien lifeforms. It will be the last ditch effort of those seeking the presidency to garner your vote. Again, will anyone be swayed to change their vote?

****

I will endeavor to post the very first results of voting from the North Country and the Great North Woods of New Hampshire as soon as they become available. Two towns, Hart’s Location and Dixville Notch, will open their polls at midnight, allowing all of the respective townspeople to vote at the same time. The total number of registered voters in the two towns probably does not exceed 100 as they’re very small towns, don’tcha know…..

Poll Position 1/26

It’s coming down to the wire. According to the latest Zogby poll, what seemed like a large lead for Kerry late last week has suddenly dwindled down to a three point lead over Dean and wide lead over Clark.

Meanwhile, new kid on the block Chris Hardcore is still projecting a Kerry/Dean/Edwards finish, despite most polls showing Clark polling much higher than Edwards at this point.

Over at Boston.com, their poll of likely voters has Kerry jumping out to a ten point lead over Dean, with Edwards and Clark trailing.There are still a lot of unsure voters out there, and the candidates will spend the next 24 hours all but begging for their votes. Joe Lieberman is out there plugging away, hoping to get some of those people known as undecided:

“This is a very fluid situation. A lot of voters remain undecided,” he said. “The polls are encouraging. I’ve said I’m going to do better than expected here. My campaign is going to begin in New Hampshire, not end here.”

So, what does this all mean? It means hold onto your hats, sit tight and wait until about 30 hours from now before you start counting your Democrat chickens.

Dean: Kerry is Playing Dirty

Democratic hopeful Howard Dean said today that rival John Kerry - the leader in the New Hampshire polls thus far - is playing dirty tricks on him.

Dean, speaking at a town hall meeting in Nashua, said today:

“In terms of the dirty tricks, I think we are seeing some of those in the primaries. You get used to it,” he said. “It’s not nice, it’s not good for the democracy, but people do them.”

He then went on to blast Kerry for things he has said about Dean in the past few days:

“John Kerry has gone out of his way to say how inexperienced I am in foreign policy. Let’s talk about this. In 1991, I supported (former President) George Bush the first because one of our allies had been attacked, there were Iraqi troops on the ground in Kuwait setting fire to oil wells, an environmental disaster, and John Kerry voted against the war.”

“Where was John Kerry when (current President) George Bush was handing out all this misinformation about Saddam had something to do with al Qaeda? He was voting in favor of the war and it turned out all the reasons the president gave us were not true….I question Sen. Kerry’s judgment when he voted no in 1991 and yes … I think it should be the other way around.”

Isn’t politics fun?

[Sources for the quotes and story include AP, CNN and Reuters]

Edwards Loses the Bowlers' Vote

This New Hampshire report paints a vivid picture of what happened Saturday night when Senator Edwards showed up at a bowling alley for a press conference.

The original idea was that Sen. Edwards himself would bowl.

…when I arrived at the bowling alley, about 15 minutes before North Carolina’s Sen. Edwards, trouble was brewing. It was like The Perfect Storm, with two powerful opposing forces on a deadly collision course:

On the one hand, you had hundreds of people there to see the candidate, including a large, aggressive press corps that was not wearing appropriate bowling footwear.

On the other hand, you had league bowlers, who were there to bowl, dammit.

Into this festive scene surged Sen. Edwards, whose campaign theme is that he is going to bring America together. He stood on a platform and gave a speech, surrounded by a dense crowd of media and applauding supporters. About 25 feet away, outside the crowd, the bowlers offered their rebuttal. It was a weird kind of stereo: In one ear, I’d hear Sen. Edwards explaining how he would provide economic opportunity to all Americans; in the other ear, I’d hear: “OUR WHOLE NIGHT IS RUINED! YOU DON‘T GIVE A (bad word) ABOUT US!”

In another column, Mr. Barry also gives his brief impression of Wesley Clark.

Kucinich: Nomination Won't Be Decided Until Convention

Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who has been struggling to break out of the 1-to-2 percent support range nationally in his bid for the Democratic nomination for president, has sent supporters an “audio postcard” telling them the race is far from over.

Referring to the strong fight between the top contenders for the nomination, Kucinich said none of his opponents has a chance to lock up the nomination during the primary season:

Not one of the candidates in this race has the ability to gain 50 percent of the delegates before we go to the convention, which means the nomination is going to be decided in Boston.

Under traditional party rules, the presidential nominee must win more than 50 percent of the delegates on the first ballot at the national convention. If additional ballots are needed, delegates, traditionally, would be “free” to vote for any candidate.

In the American Research Group’s latest poll in New Hampshire, Kucinich registers support from about 1 percent of those who are likley to vote in the primary.

Newsweek Poll Has Kerry Leading Bush

Via Newsweek:

In a hypothetical face-off, Kerry commanded a three-point lead over the president. Dean’s support among registered and likely Democrats, meanwhile, has been cut in half, to 12 percent. That puts him in three-way tie for second place in the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary with retired Gen. Wesley Clark (12 percent) and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (13 percent).

Methodology detials on the Newsweek site.

Zogby Poll: Kerry Lead Shrinks to Three Points

Game on. Via Wired News / Reuters:

Democratic presidential contender John Kerry holds a shrinking three-point lead over Howard Dean on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released Monday.

Dean shaved four points off Kerry’s advantage in the latest three-day tracking poll, as supporters who wavered after his dismal third-place Iowa finish and screaming concession speech appeared to be returning to the fold.

Kerry led Dean 31 percent to 28 percent in the new poll, with John Edwards jumping three points to narrowly trail Wesley Clark for third place, 13 percent to 12 percent. Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman remained static at 9 percent.

ED's NH News Roundup

The latest e-democracy roundup of New Hampshire news stories:

Granite State tradition forces pols to campaign face to face
Portsmouth Herald: Everyone knows New Hampshire has long had the nation’s first-in-the-nation primary, but less well known is the fact the Granite State also claims to have been the first state to come up with the idea of a national political convention and to be the state where the Republican Party was formed.

The Daily Show’ tunes in for Granite State primary
Sunday News: Four years ago, when Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” covered the New Hampshire Presidential primary, “Nobody knew who we were,” recalls Stephen Colbert, a “correspondent” for the self-described “fake news show.”

Giuliani visits Manchester, lauds Bush, promises Osama
Sunday News: “America’s mayor” was in Manchester yesterday to provide counterpoint to the barrage of criticism Democratic candidates have leveled at President George W. Bush in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s First in the Nation Presidential Primary.

Crunch time in New Hampshire primary
Sunday News: On a frosty, final weekend to solidify voter support before Tuesday’s primary, White House hopeful Howard Dean yesterday questioned John Kerry’s judgment on Iraq.

Emotion on the stump: Candidates walk fine line
Sunday News: Is the lesson of Howard Dean and some of his predecessors that acting out emotion on the campaign trail should be confined to the seclusion of a hotel room, or does such a conclusion miss the point?

Primary on ice? Politics, pucks and past mix at JFK
Sunday News: If John Kerry could rig the Democratic primary the way he rigged yesterday’s hockey game at the JFK Coliseum, Howard Dean, John Edwards and the rest of the party hopefuls wouldn’t stand a chance.

Hanover braces for primary frenzy: Sen. John Edwards asserts his ability to beat Pres. Bush in general election
The Dartmouth: After a surprise second-place finish in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards hosted a well-attended town hall meeting at the Top of the Hop Thursday afternoon.

Sen. Kerry is Herald’s choice in N.H. primary
Seacost Online: Following a long and spirited debate, the Portsmouth Herald has endorsed Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry for president in the Jan. 27 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary.

Down to the wire
Hampton Union: Presidential candidate John Kerry addressed an overflow crowd of 1,000 at Phillips Exeter Academy on Wednesday night, fresh from his victory in Monday’s Iowa caucus. Calling himself “Comeback Kerry,” he painted in broad strokes his vision for the country.

Lieberman says he feels post-debate momentum
PoliticsNH.com: Sure John Kerry has had quite the bounce in polls since the Iowa Caucuses, but a little recognized fact is that Joe Lieberman has also enjoyed a significant bump in recent days.

New Hampshire: T minus 1 Day

With a day left to win over the hearts and minds of voters in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary, here’s a list of candidates’ events and activities through tonight. The busiest candidate seems to be Wesley Clark, who also has an appearance scheduled this morning on “The Today Show:”

John Edwards -

DERRY
Meet John Edwards
Mary Anne’s Diner
29 East Broadway
8:30AM

PORTSMOUTH
Meet John Edwards
South Church
292 State Street
Noon

CONCORD
Town Hall Meeting with John Edwards
Conant Elementary School
152 South Street
8:00PM

John Kerry -

7:30am EST Portsmouth, NH
Join John Kerry for a TOWN HALL FOR AMERICAS FUTURE at Yoken’s Restaurant on Rt 1 Lafayette Road in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

12:15pm Keene, NH
Join John Kerry at a TOWN HALL FOR AMERICAS FUTURE at Keene State College Redfern Arts Center in Keene, NH.

2:30pm EST Jaffrey, NH
Join John Kerry at a TOWN HALL FOR AMERICAS FUTURE at the Pratt Auditorium at Jaffrey, Conant High School on 3 Conant Way in Jaffrey, NH.

5:30 pm EST Derry, NH
Join John Kerry at a RALLY FOR AMERICAS FUTURE at the Pinkerton Academy on 5 Pinkerton Street in Derry, NH.

7:30 pm EST Salem, NH
Join John Kerry at a RALLY FOR AMERICAS FUTURE at the Salem High School Auditorium on 44 Germonty Drive in Salem, New Hampshire.

Howard Dean(Ed. This is a loopy, flash-style web-based calendar)

Breakfast event, 8:30 a.m., 2 Somerset Parkway, Nashua.

Rally, 11:30 a.m. 80 Hanover Street, Manchester.

Rally, 2:30 p.m. 83 Main Street, Durham.

Town Hall Meeting, 7:30 P.M. 20 Main St., Exeter.

Wesley Clark

Grafton County - Lebanon, NH
6:15 am - The Fort Truck Stop, 151 Heater Rd.

Sullivan County - Claremont, NH
7:30 am - Hullabaloo Coffee Company, 38 Pleasant St.

Cheshire County - Keene, NH
9:10 am - Timoleon’s Restaurant, 27 Main St.

Hillsborough County - Nashua, NH
11:20 am - JFK Statue at City Hall

Rockingham County - Londonderry, NH
12:40 pm - Avandi’s Restaurant, 87 Nashua Rd.

Hillsborough County - Manchester, NH
1:40 pm - City Hall Plaza

Merrimack County - Concord, NH
2:50 pm - Eagle Square

Strafford County - Strafford, NH
5:00 pm - Isinglass Country Store, 410 Roller Coaster Rd

Belknap County - Alton, NH
6:20 pm - Sunny Slope Farm, 118 Old Wolfeboro Rd.

Carroll County - North Conway, NH
8:30 pm - North Conway Community Center, Main St. (Rte. 16)

Coos County - Dixville Notch, NH
11:20 pm - The Balsams Hotel

Joe Lieberman (times not specified on web site):

- Town Hall at Merrimack HS, NH

- Independents for Joe, Concord, NH

- Derry Town Hall, NH

- Manchester Town Hall, NH

Manchester, New Hampshire
6:00 - 6:30 a.m. ET
Meet and talk with voters
JacPac
163 Hancock

Manchester, New Hampshire
8:15 - 9:00 a.m. ET
Meeting
Manchester Union Leader and Newspaper Guild Local 31167
911 Candia Road

Wilton, New Hampshire
12:00 Noon - 1:00 p.m. ET
Educational Experience for High School Students and Faculty
High Mowing School
Abbot Hill Road

Merrimack, New Hampshire
1:30 - 2:00 p.m. ET
Meet and talk with voters
Eco’s Café House
704 Milford Road

Al Sharpton No events listed.

Posted by latefinal at 05:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Snow In New Hampshire?

Perhaps a foot, come Tuesday morning. CNN has the take:

“It’s got to be more than a foot and half” to have an impact he said, and in that case, it’s the senior citizens who will have a harder time getting there.

Campaigns with strong get-out-the-vote efforts like Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won’t suffer, Landrigan said, but other campaigns such as those of retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who rely on people to get themselves to the polls, may see a small decline in support.

The Art Of Measuring New Hampshire

The New York Times has an interesting article on why the NH primary has historically been so difficult to predict. Read it here, and here’s a taste:

The New Hampshire primaries are hard to predict for two main reasons, said Linda L. Fowler, director of the Rockefeller Center for Social Science at Dartmouth. First, the rules make it uncommonly difficult for pollsters to determine who is going to vote. Second, New Hampshire voters tend to change their minds at the last moment.

Get Out The Link!

Many readers have supported us with donations, which we appreciate. But the best way to support The Post is with traffic. So with the final push in New Hampshire to get out the vote, we ask that you help us “Get Out The Link.”

Support Command Post this Monday by sending the www.command-post.org URL to everyone in your contact list who you think might enjoy the site. We’re not picky: we just want to introduce people to The Command Post, and think the day before the primary is a great day to do so.

So “Get Out The Link” on Monday the 25th, and thanks for reading The Post!

Now Playing: What Your Fave Dem Candidate is Listening To

Just in case you can’t figure out who to vote for, you can always choose your candidate by his musical tastes.

Presidential candidates name the albums they most like to have in their CD players:

• Wesley Clark: “Journey-Greatest Hits”

• Howard Dean: Music by Wyclef Jean

• Sen. John Edwards: “The Essential Bruce Springsteen”

• Sen. John Kerry: “Abbey Road” by the Beatles

• Rep. Dennis Kucinich: Music by Willie Nelson

• Sen. Joe Lieberman: “Sueno” by Andrea Bocelli

• Al Sharpton: Music by Yolanda Adams

Journey? JOURNEY?

Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues

Sing it, Wes.

Kerry on 60 Minutes: Transcript

Well, part of the transcript. The whole thing is here; you can see the interview tonight at 7pm (EST).

An excerpt:

“I believe this president breached faith with the lesson that I just expressed to you that we learned in Vietnam. You truly should go to war as a matter of last resort. I’m afraid this president rushed to war without a plan to win the peace.”

But this was the war that the senator voted for.

“No,” replies Kerry. “I think a better way to phrase that is: I voted for a process by which war would be the last resort. And those are the conditions which the president himself established. He said, ‘I will build a coalition. We’re going to use the United Nations, we will inspect, and I will go to war as a last resort.’ He did not do anything three of those things. So yes, I believe we should have stood up to Saddam Hussein, I thought it was important for our nation’s security. There was a right way to do it, and there was a wrong way to do it. The president chose the wrong way.”

Seperated at Birth: Vol. 1

Some people say John Kerry reminds them of Lurch from the Addams family … but personally, I see Snow Miser.

Latest Zogby Poll: JK Leads In NH By 7

The latest Zogby data:

Pollster John Zogby: “Dean had another good polling day, actually bouncing back to 25 points on Saturday, compared to Kerry’s 28. Undecideds climbed slightly on Saturday, indicating a shift may be taking place.

“Kerry still leads among most sub-groups, including both Congressional Districts, Independents, union members, men, women, and all age groups, but Dean in inching back among 18-29-year-olds, college educated, Democrats, and new voters.

“Dean leads solidly among those ‘very liberal,’ while Kerry is crushing him among Moderates. Two-thirds (66%) of Dean’s supporters say their support is ‘very strong,’ as do 56% of Kerry’s. The race looks as though it is tightening, however, it is Kerry’s to lose at this point.”

Polling results will be released daily through Tuesday, January 27th, the date of New Hampshire’s Democratic primary election. Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 601 likely primary voters statewide over a rolling three-day period. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, January 22 through Saturday, January 24. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to party, age, education, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

Kerry / Edwards 2004?

George Stephanopoulos just moments ago, talking to George Will on This Week: “Already you’re starting to hear in Democratic circles, ‘We have the answer … it’s Kerry / Edwards. That’s the ticket.’”

Hmmm … George Stephanopoulos certainly knows something about Democratic circles … might be something to note here.

The Politics/Comedy Connection

LACONIA, NH - To show how fine a line there is between politics and comedy, Comedy Central’s ‘The Daily Show’, hosted by Jon Stewart, is in New Hampshire for its second straight New Hampshire Primary. In this article from the New Hampshire Sunday News (Manchester, NH), we get a peek at how The Daily Show’s reporters have gone from being unknown to “command[ing] a respect among media types and politicians alike…”

Witness the lineup for last night’s “town hall” media panel discussion, hosted by Comedy Central at the Center of New Hampshire in Manchester: NBC anchorman Tom Brokaw; Joe Klein, a senior writer for Time magazine and author of “Primary Colors”; former Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun, who recently dropped her Presidential bid — and New Hampshire’s junior senator, John Sununu.

[…]

Sununu said after he got the call from Comedy Central asking if he would participate, he had a long talk with Stewart “and that was all the convincing I needed.”

“He’s got the funniest satire on television right now,” Sununu said. As for the panel, he said, “I think their goal is to actually delve into, in a light-hearted way, some of the questions about the way the media covers politics.”

Not to be outdone, Union Leader/NH Sunday News columnist John Clayton also takes a look at the “coupling of politics and comedy.”

Anyway, what other politician [Bob Dole] — upon spotting Presidents Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon standing in a row — would have the temerity to crack, “There they are. See no evil, hear no evil and. . . evil.”

Maybe losing inspires humor.

Consider another failed, two-time Presidential candidate, Adlai Stevenson. While running for office against Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, Stevenson once delivered a moving stump speech that prompted a supporter to assure the Illinois governor he would have “the support of all thinking Americans.”

“Not enough,” Stevenson replied. “I’m going to need a majority.”

And so it goes.

To give a better idea of how deeply entrenched the politics/comedy connections are, the New Hampshire Sunday News ran a picture on page 3 of a sign outside the Hancock, New Hampshire Fire Department that states:

“Just vote for one of ‘em, then they will all go away!”

Latest Paugus Diner Poll^© Results

[Weekend Pundit originally posted this on OpEd, but we think it’s jus the type of local perspective that we like on the 2004 page, so I’ve moved it over.]

——————————

LACONIA, NH- It’s puzzling – the results of the second Paugus Diner Poll^© are in and I’m seeing some real discrepancies between the “official” polls and this one. While the official polls show the undecided voters in the Democratic side of the primary at anywhere between 8 and 13 percent, I’m seeing a much higher number in that category.

Question: If you are planning to vote Democrat in the primary, have you decided which candidate you will vote for on Tuesday?

I asked this question until I had found 100 people that were going to vote Democrat in the New Hampshire Primary. It took 2 days to come up with the not so arbitrarily chosen number (It’s easier to calculate percentages if you have 100 respondents), but I reached it this morning halfway through my breakfast at the diner.

Of the 100 people planning to vote for a Democrat in the primary, fully 24% said they had not yet made up their mind about which candidate they would be voting for. For the purposes of this unscientific and totally arbitrary poll, I did not count those who said that they were leaning towards one candidate or another as “undecided”, only those who said they hadn’t yet made up there mind. But if I add the ‘leaning towards’ respondents, then the undecideds jump up to 34%.

Of course you must remember that this is not a statewide poll, but one taken in a small portion of New Hampshire, specifically the towns of Gilford, Laconia, and Belmont (a majority of those participating were in Gilford at the diner). But still I find the results interesting.

The undecideds wield considerable power, being able to make or break a candidate’s campaign with a simple vote. They can confound the pollsters and turn a frontrunner into an almostwas in a single day. It’s happened in the past, so it can happen again. And we must remember one thing – the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on Tuesday. All of the others decide nothing, though you might have a tough time convincing some of the media of that.

(Crossposted to Weekend Pundit)

New Poll on the Block

His name is Chris and he seems rather young, but he’s got a good methodology.

His prediction for tomorrow night?

• Kerry 43
• Dean 22
• Edwards 20

Big Elections in Canada, Too

The Federal Elections are coming up in Canada, and BlogsCanada has started an election blog so you can keep up with all the news and trends.

Dean Alleges Dirty Attacks in Iowa (And Blames Iowa)

And he’s blaming Iowa as much as his opposition. Here’s the take at ABC News, which reports:

Howard Dean said Saturday he was surprised by the “under the table” campaigning he faced during the Iowa caucus and said the state needs to prevent such negative attacks if it wants to keep the nation’s leadoff presidential vote.

Dean said his rivals “had their folks really beating up on the people who went in, trying to get them to change their minds in caucus.”

“I think Iowa is going to have to change the way it conducts its caucuses if it wants to continue to be first,” he told reporters in an interview on his campaign bus in New Hampshire.

S.C. Primary News 1/24

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
1:30 p.m.: Generation Dean Press Conference, Statehouse, Columbia
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post]

News:
Dan Hoover writes about the “enhanced political stature” of the campaign of John Edwards. A picture of Edwards in Columbia is also featured in the article.

Edwards appeared via satellite from his Columbia HQ last night on Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO.

An AP article also discusses Edwards in the state yesterday.

John Drake writes in The State today about the resurgence of Edwards’ campaign and the possibility of a Clyburn endorsement. Edwards also downplayed the Hollings endorsement of Kerry:

“I love Fritz Hollings,” Edwards said. “He’s a good man, but we learned in Iowa how much difference these endorsements make.”

Lee Bandy writes in The State today about Edwards, Kerry and Clark and their courting of swing voters.

The Greenville News has an expanded Election 2004 section which focuses on the Democratic Primary for now. The State features an Election 2004 also.

A New York Times article reprinted in the Post & Courier further discusses the revamping of the Kerry campaign in SC after the opinion of some Democrats that he ignored the state after officially kicking off his national campaign in Charleston.

An AP article by Jennifer Holland discusses the support Al Sharpton has in South Carolina.

Remaining Schedule:
1/27: 9 p.m., Blues Traveler concert for Wesley Clark (Clark will depart NH and arrive at the event later), Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday’s Primary News

Hew Hampshire Race May Be Tightening

Reuters reports that in a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Saturday, Kerry holds a nine-point lead over Howard Dean in New Hampshire but the race may be getting closer.

According to Reuters:

Kerry led Dean 31 percent to 22 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, but the last day of polling showed Kerry with a much smaller margin over Dean while John Edwards and Joseph Lieberman both gained ground on the leaders.

“Kerry’s lead is now nine points over three days, however he led only by 26 percent-22 percent over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10 percent,” pollster John Zogby said.

“Dean’s showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase,” Zogby said. “Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again.”

[. . .]

Dean, who held a more than 20-point lead over Kerry in New Hampshire in December, suggested on Friday that his campaign had “turned a corner” and was coming back up.

“We know New Hampshire always likes to change what Iowa does,” Dean told campaign volunteers in Keene, New Hampshire. “The question is how hard everyone is willing to work to get to where we were before.”

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, in third place, held steady at 14 percent. Edwards, a North Carolina senator, and Lieberman, a Connecticut senator, each gained one percentage point to 8 and 7 percent, respectively, over the course of the three days of polling.

This new poll is welcome news for Dean who has been dropping quickly in the polls since his Yowling “speech” after finishing third in Iowa. Perhaps the damage control interview Dean and his wife did with Diane Sawyer was effective.

The Pre-NH Toast-O-Metere (1/24/04)

This week’s Toast is done, with a substantial re-shuffling of the Loaf.

Just in from New Hampshire

The latest from the political columnist who most accurately captures the perspective of most Americans.

One Last Thing ... Delegate Counts

… a new feature: I’ve added current Dem. delegate counts to the left-hand column, and we’ll update the count throughout the primary season.

Now … off to bed …

Dean Calls a Pause in His Nationwide Ads

Good lord. What am I still doing awake? OK … last post of the night.

Looks like Dean is taking a different advertising tack leading up to Monday’s primary. Via NYT:

Faced with a drastically changed political environment, Howard Dean’s campaign said Friday night that it had scaled back its nationwide advertising until it got a better sense of its standing in the states voting on Feb. 3.

Rather, campaign officials said, they are focusing the bulk of their advertising here in New Hampshire, where they are considering introducing a new spot over the weekend featuring Dr. Dean’s wife, Dr. Judith Steinberg Dean.

That’s it … I’m outta here.

AP On CP

The AP noted our humble 2004 page in a story on electoral blogging … and it was picked up by, at last count, 47 news outlets, including CNN, FOX (who got the link wrong, BTW, forcing us to create a page for their incorrect link to point to), and USA Today.

It’s only a mention … not anything like the profile on TPM in the same story … but thank you Associated Press nonetheless!

New Command Post Poll ...

… over there in the right-hand column. We’ll keep it open up to the NH Primary, and then compare our results with those from the Granite State.

So Which Is It?

Two headlines that, independently, would have caused me no interest … seen within an hour, however, they caused me at least bemused interest. The first is from the email pre-release of CSM (yes, it IS cool running the Command Post):

A drawn-out Democratic battle? Nomination fight could extend well into March — or even later.

OK … makes sense. But wait! There’s also this from USAToday:

Dual Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire Could Wrap it Up for Kerry.

Darn it … now I’m all muddled again. Suppose I’ll have to decide for myself. Just out of curiosity … which do you think is the more likely case?

More Ugh

Maybe I’m just on a WaPo rant tonight … probably so. Just got off a plane, pulled a 15 hour day, and I’m cranky. So there it is. Nonetheless, this has all the luster of a “Dog Bites Man” story: Leading Issues Include Jobs And Electability … as was obvious to anyone who noticed anything that happened in Iowa.

“It’s about the economy, stupid … oh … and winning … we want to win, too.” No kidding.

OK … back to your regularly scheduled non-grumpy news posts.

The Management.

It's Never A Good Sign ...

… when you’re pandered to by the Washington Post … especially when it sounds like this: Dear Dean Team: Tips on Defusing Your H-Bomb.

Word to avoid: Warts. An ugly word. “I am not a perfect person, believe me. I have all kinds of warts.” Too much information! Witches have warts. Kissing frogs gets you warts. There’s genital warts — don’t want to go there. Presidents do not, should not, have warts. As your candidate the doctor knows, warts are viral and incurable. You just have to wait for them to go away. We don’t have time to wait for his warts to go away. He has to quit talking about them.

And the issues are …. where?

New Hampshire Primary Links

A very informative web page covering the New Hampshire Primary and the presidential candidates has been put together by Foster’s Daily Democrat (Dover, NH). Here’s a sample of some of the headlines presently listed there:

Lieberman says Saddam himself was a weapon of mass destruction
MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Lieberman says President Bush didn’t have to claim Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction to justify going to war with Iraq.

Presidential polls in New Hampshire

Clark: GOP agenda at play in New Hampshire debate
NASHUA, N.H. (AP) — Presidential candidate Wesley Clark on Friday complained that one of the moderators in Thursday night’s debate was carrying out a Republican agenda by questioning his Democratic credentials.

Edwards denounces ‘war profiteers’
CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — John Edwards denounced “war profiteers” Friday that are winning contracts for work in Iraq even as they continue making political contributions to the well-connected in Washington.

Giuliani and Pataki head to New Hampshire

Poll Position 1/23

Zogby:

Fox poll of likely Democratic primary voters:

Clark Claims 'Republican Agenda'

Presidential candidate Wesley Clark on Friday complained that one of the moderators in Thursday night’s debate was carrying out a Republican agenda by questioning his Democratic credentials.

Brit Hume of Fox News Channel, who worked as both moderator and questioner during the two-hour debate with the seven candidates, pressed Clark about when he had first realized he was a Democrat.

Clark told reporters Friday, “I looked at who was asking the questions, and I think that was part of the Republican agenda in the debate.”

Democrats have complained that Fox News Channel shows a Republican bias.

Don’t worry, Wes. It will all even if CNN hosts a debate.

Bush Sees the Light

From the Washington Times:

President Bush will propose an increase of less than 1 percent for federal programs not related to defense or homeland security, effectively freezing discretionary spending in the next budget, after coming under fire from conservatives to control runaway spending.

But the president will propose increasing governmentwide homeland security funding by 9.7 percent in the fiscal 2005 budget, and the military budget is expected to increase by a small amount.

“This is going to be an austere budget,” White House spokesman Trent Duffy said of the budget that Mr. Bush will send to Congress on Feb. 2.

The less-than-1 percent growth will be the smallest since Mr. Bush took office in 2001 — and the lowest since his father, President Bush, proposed his fiscal 1993 budget.

Read my commentary here. Link via Bull Moose Republicans

Latest NH Numbers (1/23/03)

Note: All polls are thru 1/22/04. Notice also the descrepency in the number of undecided voters between polls.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll (MoE ± 4)

Kerry 34%
Dean 22%
Clark 17 %
Edwards 12 %
Lieberman 8 %
Kucinich 3 %
Sharpton - %
Unsure 4 %

Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll (MoE ± 4)

Kerry 30 %
Dean 22 %
Clark 14 %
Edwards 7 %
Lieberman 8 %
Kucinich 1 %
Sharpton - %
Unsure 20 %

Boston Globe/WBZ-TV tracking poll conducted by KRC/Communications Research (MoE ± 5)

Kerry 34 %
Dean 19 %
Clark 14 %
Edwards 11 %
Lieberman 3 %
Kucinich 1 %
Sharpton - %
Unsure 17 %

American Research Group tracking poll (MoE ± 4)

Kerry 31 %
Dean 18 %
Clark 20 %
Edwards 11 %
Lieberman 7 %
Kucinich 1 %
Sharpton - %
Unsure 12 %

John Edwards Refuses to Reveal his Campaign's Financiers - or "Bundlers" - to the Press

Per today’s Washington Post:

- - - - - - -

Mr. Edwards’s Bundle of Secrets

Friday, January 23, 2004; Page A20

A BIG PIECE of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’s campaign message is about how he would work to “clean up” Washington if elected president. He accuses President Bush of putting “the interests of lobbyists and campaign contributors above the interests of regular people.” But Mr. Edwards — alone among the serious candidates for president — declines to provide a list of his major campaign financiers: the men and women who have not only the capability to write $2,000 checks themselves but the networks that allow them to harvest bigger bundles for their favored candidates. President Bush posts on his Web site the names of his $100,000 Pioneers and $200,000 Rangers. Mr. Edwards’s Democratic rivals — Sens. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), former Vermont governor Howard Dean and retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark — have, at our request, provided similar lists of major underwriters.

And Mr. Edwards? His press secretary, Jennifer Palmieri, had this to say to us last month: “Sen. Edwards is a leader in campaign finance reform. He has committed to the public finance system, proposed bold new ethics standards as a candidate . . . and has gone beyond what the law requires by refusing to accept any contributions from lobbyists. Every donation he receives is duly reported.”

True, but as Mr. Edwards’s fellow lawyers would say, non-responsive. As the other candidates have implicitly recognized, there is a gap in the existing disclosure regime. The rules put quantity of disclosure (all donations bigger than $200) over quality, failing to require that candidates reveal the identities of the financiers who really matter to their enterprises — and to whom they’d be indebted in office.

Based on the latest data available, Mr. Edwards has collected a bigger chunk of his donations in the form of $2,000 checks, the largest allowable, than any of the other Democratic candidates: 65 percent, compared with Mr. Kerry’s 55 percent and Mr. Dean’s 13 percent. Now, with his surprise second-place showing in Iowa, Mr. Edwards is scrambling to collect even more of those checks. It’s no secret that the backbone of Mr. Edwards’s financial support has been his fellow trial lawyers, nor does Mr. Edwards minimize that part of his biography; rather, he embraces it as a role in which he fought for ordinary citizens against powerful corporations. That’s fine; voters can judge for themselves between his view of the profession and the Republicans’ depiction of trial lawyers as sharks savaging the public interest. What’s beyond dispute is that trial lawyers are a special interest. They pump millions of dollars into Democratic coffers because their livelihoods depend on such legislative issues as caps on damages in medical malpractice cases, limits on class action lawsuits and the settlement of asbestos litigation.

“I have never taken a dime from Washington lobbyists and I never will,” Mr. Edwards tells his audiences. “I will be your president, not theirs.” But if Mr. Edwards believes that taking campaign contributions from lobbyists makes candidates beholden to them, why won’t he reveal more about the interests and individuals that he would owe if elected president? If he’s as committed as he says to transparency in government, is it too much to ask that his campaign at least be as open as that of Mr. Bush?

- - - - - - -

S.C. Primary News 1/23

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
[Remaining Schedule Posted Below]

News:
Fritz Hollings endorsed John Kerry.

A picture of Hollings at the endorsement announcement.

The Greenville News has more on the endorsement (excerpts below.) Edwards picked up some more endorsement from previous Gephardt endorsements that are also listed in the article.

The Post & Courier also covered the endorsement (excerpts below.) The article closes with a mention that Hollings also supported the presidential bid of another Massachusetts Senator - Ted Kennedy.

Today’s Washington Post features a story on the courting of Jim Clyburn (excerpts below.) and a picture of Clyburn in his office.

An article in The State discusses a special state senate election which will be held the same day as the presidential primary in Kershaw County. S.C. still requires parties to run their own presidential preference primaries (including providing their own volunteers. The article indicates that the presidential primary will be able to share polling places with the special election.

An article that originally appeared in the Charlotte Observer discusses the impact of the black vote in the primary. The article centers on Orangeburg, home of S.C. State University and Claflin University.

An article in The Register points out a study that shows flaws in security for internet absentee voting by military personnel overseas. It mentions that the S.C. primary is the first scheduled test of the system.

S.C. blogger Mike discusses the Hollings endorsement, a possible Clyburn one and other S.C. primary possibilities.

Hollings throws support to Kerry for state primary:

“I’ve been elected seven times to the Senate by South Carolinians, and I owe it to them to tell them what I think. I believe John Kerry has the experience, judgment and character to lead this nation. In fact, I tried to get John Kerry to run four years ago. You can’t agree 100 percent with anybody, but I know John Kerry is the right man.”

Hollings made the announcement at a downtown Columbia hotel while Kerry was campaigning in New Hampshire, where primary voters go to the polls on Tuesday.

“John Kerry’s record of fighting for working families, his commitment to fiscal discipline, his plan to restore manufacturing jobs, and his commitment to expand health care and make it more affordable,” were among his reasons, Hollings said….

…”For goodness’ sake, let’s get on down here,” Hollings urged when Kerry joined a conference call.

Kerry promised he would return to South Carolina “with a head of steam and talk common sense to the people down there about jobs lost and the jobs that are needed.”…

…”We’re rolling,” he told Hollings. “I needed to take the time to break through, and we broke through in Iowa. Your endorsement not only has enormous impact on South Carolina, but here (in New Hampshire), because it sends a message nationally about the viability and message of my campaign.”…

…The endorsement from Hollings is a major plus for Kerry, said Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political scientist.

“An endorsement from Fritz Hollings goes a long way,” he said “You have (Hollings’) name recognition, someone who has appealed to voters across the political spectrum, and it’s a mainstream attraction, because Fritz Hollings is certainly not from the so-called liberal wing of the Democratic Party.”

Phil Noble of Charleston, chairman of the state chapter of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, said Hollings’ support would benefit anyone, but issued a cautionary note on the strength of brand-name endorsements.

“Times are changing, and endorsements generally get you more headlines than votes,” he said. “If Iowa tells us anything, it’s that people nowadays make up their own mind and endorsements mean less and less.”

Noble cited the endorsement of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by Sen. Tom Harkin, a dominant figure in Iowa politics, “and it obviously didn’t do much good.” Dean finished third, losing a wide lead in the final week….

…Edwards released a fresh batch of endorsements, including some former supporters of U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, who dropped out of the race after a fourth-place Iowa finish. Among them were Mayor Christopher Campbell of Eastover, president of the South Carolina Conference of Black Mayors, and state Rep. Leon Howard of Columbia. Others included elected Democrats from Lowcountry municipalities and counties…

…Speaking of Edwards, a first-term senator, Hollings said, “I know he was born here (in South Carolina) and he and I are good trial lawyers together, but he doesn’t have nearly the experience to go all the way and really take that White House.” Hollings said Edwards lacks Kerry’s “hard experience.”

Hollings was to fly to New Hampshire after the announcement and begin campaigning there with Kerry today….

…Winthrop’s Huffmon said, “Fritz Hollings has a long and storied career, but as far as gravitas in the Democratic primary, I still think the golden endorsement was Jim Clyburn’s.”

Hollings, who is retiring in January after 38 years in Washington, said he doesn’t have a political organization like Clyburn, “but the voters who elected me seven times to the Senate are all around, (and) I hope that those who haven’t made up their mind will stop, look and listen, because this is serious business.”

Hollings’ backing big boost for Kerry

“Massachusetts liberal? I say bah, humbug,” Hollings said in a hastily called news conference Thursday in Columbia, where he flew to make his announcement.

“The only fella I know that really has the courage and the experience in every regard who can really take President Bush on is John Kerry of Massachusetts,” Hollings said, noting the race is about who can win in November.

“We’ve got a fella who’s fiscally responsible, who’s experienced, who’s good in foreign policy,” he added….

University of South Carolina political scientist Brad Gomez said Hollings’ endorsement at this late hour probably will carry a lot of weight with undecided Democrats since many voters only now are starting to pay attention.

“The fact that Kerry is now getting a great deal of free media during a period when South Carolina voters are just now starting to consider who they might vote for means an endorsement of this caliber could be very useful,” Gomez said.

Hollings’ endorsement also shows Kerry is serious about expanding his campaign beyond his home New England base, Gomez said, by fighting for South Carolina, where Edwards has historically been the favorite….

…This isn’t the first time Hollings has supported a Massachusetts politician for president. He was also an early backer of John Kennedy.

Dearest Colleague:

Rep. Jim Clyburn sat in his Capitol Hill apartment Monday night drinking Jack Daniel’s and Diet Coke and eating pork rinds. He was watching the results come in from Iowa on CNN, and they were not good.

Dick Gephardt, the candidate Clyburn had endorsed for president, was finishing a distant fourth. Iowa voters had effectively ended Gephardt’s campaign. And started Clyburn’s cell phone ringing.

John Edwards or John Kerry called first, he can’t remember which. Wesley Clark called as Clyburn drove to an interview with Charlie Rose. In the next 36 hours, Clyburn would hear from every Democratic presidential candidate — some repeatedly — except for long-shot Dennis Kucinich….

Clyburn says he received 60 to 100 endorsement-related calls between Monday night and Wednesday afternoon.

“And maybe one or two calls about the State of the Union,” says Lindy Birch, his communications director.

Clyburn says he won’t make a decision on an endorsement before next week’s New Hampshire primary.

Meantime, Clyburn keeps talking about how much he likes Gephardt. He likes him for reasons that are both professional and personal. Without Gephardt, Clyburn says, he wouldn’t have gotten his seat on the House Appropriations Committee….

…But that didn’t stop the other candidates from calling. Sen. Joe Lieberman called Clyburn and said, “If things don’t go well for Gephardt, I want to be your second choice.” Kerry called a day later and said essentially the same thing. So did Howard Dean and Clark and Edwards, who laid it on rather thick.

“I just want you to know,” Edwards told Clyburn, according to Clyburn, “that your endorsement of Dick Gephardt underscores everything I ever heard about you.”

“Oh yeah, what’s that?” Clyburn said.

“That you’re intensely loyal to your friends,” Edwards said. “I understand that. But if things don’t go well, I want your consideration.”

Since Christmas, Edwards has called “about 13, 14 times,” Clyburn says. Once, while Clyburn sat next to Gephardt on his campaign bus, he felt his phone vibrating. It was Edwards calling to whisper sweet nothings in Clyburn’s ear even as his main presidential squeeze sat a few feet away, oblivious.

Clyburn is arguably more important to Edwards than to the other candidates because South Carolina is more important to Edwards. Edwards, who was born in South Carolina and who represents North Carolina in the U.S. Senate, is banking heavily on a strong showing in the South. He needs South Carolina. He needs Jim Clyburn.

Last spring, before a debate in Columbia, Edwards made the mistake of leaving Clyburn’s annual fish fry before the other candidates. That irked some members of Clyburn’s staff, and Edwards called the next morning to apologize.

When Dean offended many Southerners by saying he wanted to be the candidate “for guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks,” he promptly called Clyburn to explain himself. Kerry calls to update Clyburn on the latest tracking polls and endorsements. Al Sharpton told Clyburn early on that he wouldn’t ask for his endorsement because he didn’t want to get between him and Gephardt. But he’s been in touch lately.

Clark called Wednesday, and Kerry, and Dean. “I think Dean called today,” Clyburn says. Or was it yesterday? “These days are running together.”

Edwards just called again, too. From Greenville, S.C., where he was headed to the airport to catch a flight to New Hampshire. “I wish I didn’t have to go up to New Hampshire,” Clyburn recalls Edwards saying. Clyburn empathized, mentioned something about the cold and the snow….

If Edwards ever goes five days without calling — unimaginable as that is — Clyburn says he won’t hold it against him.

Clyburn is still a little depressed about Gephardt’s loss. Gephardt called Clyburn the morning after Iowa to thank him for everything. “It was a little bit emotional,” Clyburn says of the call. “You want to see your friend do well.”

Lucky for Clyburn, he has so many good friends calling to console him. To assure him that, indeed, Dick Gephardt is a good man, a decent man, and he’ll be missed.

And, oh, about that endorsement . . .

Remaining Schedule:
1/27: Wesley Clark
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday’s Primary News

John Edwards in 2002: "Saddam Hussein . . . has weapons of mass destruction and . . . is doing everything in his power to get nuclear weapons"

Now that he has re-emerged as a serious candidate, it’s worth looking again at where John Edwards stood on the Iraq war when it came to a vote in the fall of 2002. At the time, Edwards - who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee and thus has his own access to our intelligence on Iraq - gave full-throated support for what has become the most controversial justification for the war: that Saddam Hussein’s regime had weapons of mass destruction. Of course, this puts Edwards seriously at odds with a substantial and vocal faction of his party; I address the potential fallout from this more on my own blog. Here’s Edwards, in his own words:

1. September 12, 2002: Edwards gives a speech on why the “IRAQI DICTATOR MUST GO,” coinciding with Bush’s speech to the UN:

As a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I firmly believe that the issue of Iraq is not about politics. It’s about national security. We know that for at least 20 years, Saddam Hussein has obsessively sought weapons of mass destruction through every means available. We know that he has chemical and biological weapons today. He has used them in the past, and he is doing everything he can to build more. Each day he inches closer to his longtime goal of nuclear capability — a capability that could be less than a year away.

I believe that Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi regime represents a clear threat to the United States, to our allies, to our interests around the world, and to the values of freedom and democracy we hold dear.

[snip]

What’s more, the terrorist threat against America is all too clear. Thousands of terrorist operatives around the world would pay anything to get their hands on Saddam’s arsenal, and there is every possibility that he could turn his weapons over to these terrorists. No one can doubt that if the terrorists of September 11th had had weapons of mass destruction, they would have used them. On September 12, 2002, we can hardly ignore the terrorist threat, and the serious danger that Saddam would allow his arsenal to be used in aid of terror.

2. October 10, 2002: Edwards speaks as not only a supporter but a co-sponsor of the legislation authorizing the use of force in Iraq:

Saddam Hussein’s regime represents a grave threat to America and our allies, including our vital ally, Israel. For more than two decades, Saddam Hussein has sought weapons of mass destruction through every available means. We know that he has chemical and biological weapons. He has already used them against his neighbors and his own people, and is trying to build more. We know that he is doing everything he can to build nuclear weapons, and we know that each day he gets closer to achieving that goal.

Iraq has continued to seek nuclear weapons and develop its arsenal in defiance of the collective will of the international community, as expressed through the United Nations Security Council. It is violating the terms of the 1991 cease-fire that ended the Gulf War and as many as 16 Security Council resolutions, including 11 resolutions concerning Iraq’s efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction.

By ignoring these resolutions, Saddam Hussein is undermining the credibility of the United Nations, openly violating international law, and making a mockery of the very idea of collective action that is so important to the United States and its allies.

We cannot allow Saddam Hussein to get nuclear weapons in violation of his own commitments, our commitments, and the world’s commitments.

This resolution will send a clear message to Iraq and the world: America is united in its determination to eliminate forever the threat of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.

[snip]

[W]e must be prepared to use force, if necessary, to disarm Saddam Hussein, and eliminate Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction once and for all.

Almost no one disagrees with these basic facts: that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and a menace; that he has weapons of mass destruction and that he is doing everything in his power to get nuclear weapons; that he has supported terrorists; that he is a grave threat to the region, to vital allies like Israel, and to the United States; and that he is thwarting the will of the international community and undermining the United Nations’ credibility.

Headline Of The Week

From the Hartford Courant: ‘Going Postal’ Is Out; ‘Going Dean’ Is In!

Courtesy ED.

NH Debate Transcript

You no longer have to rely on my sloppy simulblog for the verbatims … here’s the transcript of last night’s debate.

NH Debate Simulblog

Oh … OK, I‘ll simulblog the thing. What the hell. Here are the lines that stand out to this observer … and as usual, please forgive the typos. This is, after all, live. Here we go …. YEEAAAAHHHHHHH!!!

• DEAN: “There was no middle class tax cut in this country.” Goes on to say a balanced budget is the key issue in this election.

• CLARK: “I voted for Bill Clinton and Al Gore … I was either going to be the loneliest Republican in America, or I was going to be a happy Democrat.”

• EDWARDS: On his vote against force in Iraq “It was not a protest vote … it came to the point where we had to stand up and take responsibility, and I took responsibility.”

• SHARPTON: “The Sharpton doctrine of foreign policy would be to support emerging democratic nations … with humanitarian support and trade.” “They know we’re a superpower … the question is whether we can be a superhelp to nations in need … rather than go to Mars, before we settle our problems here on Earth.”

• KERRY: “The troops of America our overextended … the fact is that if we’re going to maintain this level of commitment on a global level … we need two more divisions … a combat division and a support division.” Goes on to say this is temporary; that long term we need to establish a “new architecture” of support.

• LIEBERMAN: “There is a morally scandalous fact … which is that 43 million Americans don’t have health insurance, 2 million more than when George Bush took office.” (Ed. note … I’m reminded of the last line on Carville’s famous sign in the Clinton War Room: “And don’t forget healthcare.”)

• KUCINICH: [Would you throw out No Child Left Behind?] “Yes I would.” Wants to move us away from being a nation of “test-takers.” “NCLB had become an unfunded mandate … I would have a universal pre-kinder program.” (I think that’s what he termed it … but he clearly means a pre-kindergarten education program.)

• DEAN: On Iraq - “It turns out they did not have the weapons of mass destruction that people thought they did.” OHHH … and there’s this: “I think a lot of people have had fun at my expense over the Iowa hooting and hollering, and I think that’s justified.” (Kind of takes the fun out of it …)

• CLARK: Regarding terrorism in the United States - “I never used the word guarantee.”

OK … here’s our post about the WaPo guarantee story. And he’s right … he didn’t use that word. In fact, according to the story:

As president, Clark added, he would “take care of the American people” and “we would not have one of these incidents.”

• SHARPTON: Gives an answer to the “who would you look to name as head of the Fed” question that was, frankly, nearly impossible to follow. Ends with “Would I replace Greenspan, probably … do I have a name, no.”

• KERRY: “I will never conduct a war or start a war because we want to … but because we have to.” “This president is breaking faith with veterans all around this country … I’m not going to listen to Tom DeLay or the President or anyone else lecture the democratic party about patriotism” when they’re “breaking faith” with our vets. Kerry gets a large response to his take on this issue.

• LIEBERMAN: “When it comes to supporting our troops in battle, I will never say no, period.”

• KUCINICH: Will cut the Pentagon by 15%, “but the one thing I won’t do” is cut assistance programs.

• CLARK: Peter Jennings asks Clark why he didn’t contradict Michael Moore when he called Bush a “deserter,” which Peter says was a reckless an inaccurate charge. Clark says he doesn’t know the facts, and besides, it’s “not material.” He is “proud,” though, to have Moore’s support.

• EDWARDS: In support of greater benefits for gay and lesbian couples, and against the Defense of Marriage act.

• SHARPTON: Asked what he would do to get more minorities in leadership positions in government … and gives his view on the Defense of Marriage act, decrying efforts to “go back to state’s rights.” Answering the question, “Government must make sure it is inclusive of everyone … because diversity is good for everyone.” Candidly: does not answer question.

• DEAN: Accuses Bush of playing the “race card” in his use of the word “quota.”

• LIEBERMAN: “So long as democrats are hesitant to talk the language of values … we close ourselves off” from large number of Americans. Argues that Dems. need to, in essence, take back the high ground on values. Offers, actually, a very passionate and moving response.

• CLARK: Would suspend all parts of the Patriot Act that are related to search and seizure. “We cannot win the war on terror by giving up the very freedoms we are fighting to protect.”

• KUCINICH: Asked if the Dem party is divided over the issue of the war in Iraq - “Of course it is.”

• EDWARDS: Asked what federal gun control policy he would introduce. “I think we should extend the Brady Bill … we need to close, forever, the gun show loophole … it does make sense to have trigger locks … but I start from the place that we need to protect people’s 2nd Amendment rights.”

• KERRY: Calls the Bush administration the worst environmental administration he’s ever seen. “I will balance between jobs and the economy, but I will not give people a phony choice between jobs and the economy. Cleaning up the environment is jobs.”

• LIEBERMAN: We should allow the legal importation of drugs from Canada.

• KUCINICH: What is the most important environmental issue facing the nation? “I would lead this country on a new energy initiative … sustainable and renewable energy.” Strong favorable response to this.

• DEAN: We’ve lost 500 soldiers and 2,300 wounded, and “those soldiers were sent there by senators Edwards and Lieberman and Kerry.” LIEBERMAN then jumps in, rebuts, calls Hussein a homicidal maniac, and says “I repeat, we are safer with Saddam Hussein in prison.”

• EDWARDS: Regarding lobbyists - “[I would] ban their contributions, I would shine a bright light on their activities, and third, make them tell us everything they’re doing.”

• SHARPTON: How he would deal with Iran - “I do not in any way shape or form support a military intervention.” Would use diplomacy, trade, our “ability to communicate with all sides,” and the UN.

• KERRY: Is asked a question about small business, and after reframing the answer to list all the large supporters he has, says he’s in favor of “tax reductions for small business.” Notes about the Repubs: “That’s why they’re frightened, and that’s why I’ll win.”

• LIEBERMAN: (Hand raised) “I will pledge, to the death, to protect the New Hampshire Primary!”

• EDWARDS: Launches his “two Americas” message 1.5 hours into the evening.

• KUCINICH: “My first act in office will be to cancel NAFTA and the WTO.”

• DEAN: “This isn’t about gay marriage … this is about job … this isn’t about race … this is about education, because everyone needs an education … we have to stop fighting the Republicans on their ground, we need to fight them on our ground.” He’s really picking up steam later in the evening.

• KERRY: On Bush - “He’s run the most arrogant, inept [more adjectives that I missed] … foreign policy in the history of our country.” Big response to this.

Final assessment, just my take, without bias toward any candidate: Dean was stiff, appeared uptight, at times weak, but really picked up momentum late in the evening. Edwards was cogent, but not strongly enough on message to elevate above the others. Clark appeared generally hostile and defensive. Kerry acted like the leading candidate and did well.

All that said, Lieberman did awfully well. Smart. On-message. Consistent. Funny. But most important, continually argued from a position of superior values. An “I stand by my beliefs and try to do what’s right” message that clearly resonated with the crowd. If this performance has any influence, he could get a bump … but Monday’s a long way away.

Ready, Set, Debate

The Democrats will meet Thursday night for a nationally televised debate that strategists for the major contenders see as one of the most critical encounters yet in the battle for the nomination, one likely to shape attitudes in an electorate that continues to shift allegiances by the day.

If you’re handicapping, Edwards may be a good first choice, according to Rich Lowry (Editor of the National Review):

“I think if you’re looking for an upset, look toward John Edwards … there still could be a late break,” said Rich Lowry.

The debate is sponsored by Fox News Channel and scheduled to air at 8 p.m. EST.

Of course, you can keep checking right here at TCP for updates and commentary.

Many NH Voters Still Undecided

Laconia, NH - Despite the reports of some polls, it still appears that the New Hampshire Primary is still anybody’s race. According to this article by Michael Cousineau in today’s Union Leader (Manchester, NH), there are still a large number of undecided voters in the Granite State.

Manchester pollster Dick Bennett said 47 percent of voters polled, including 13 percent who call themselves undecided, are open to changing their minds before Tuesday’s primary voting.

Tonight’s debate between the seven remaining Democratic candidates may well be the deciding factor. The nationally televised debate, airing between 8 and 10 PM EST tonight on Fox News, will be the last one before Tuesday’s primary.

“The voters are telling us they’re going to watch the debate and they’re looking for a signal,” Bennett said. “They want to be able to figure out who to vote for.”

[…]

“People who are going to vote on Tuesday who remain uncommitted on Thursday will be looking at that debate having presorted in their own mind that they want to measure X and Y,” said former state Democratic Party chairman Joe Grandmaison.

[…]

“Many people who have been following the campaign will be watching in order to begin making their final decisions, if they haven’t already. And for many people who are casually interested in politics, this may be their first good look at the candidates,” said Union Leader senior political reporter John DiStaso, one of the debate panelists.

“So, it has the potential to be the turning point in the primary campaign,” DiStaso said.

While Bennett’s poll shows Kerry leading Dean in New Hampshire 31% to 21%, a Boston Globe poll shows a far closer race with Kerry at 27% and Dean at 24%.

Second place finisher in the Iowa Caucus, John Edwards, is fourth in New Hampshire in most polls, but sees tonight’s debate as an opportunity to close the gap.

The unsettled electorate “helps me tremendously,” Edwards said. “It was exactly what was going on in Iowa in the last week.”

This may be the last chance for the candidates to make their case before New Hampshire voters. As has happened in the past, all it takes is for a candidate to have a memorable response to a question from a moderator or comment from one of his opponents to make or break their campaign. All one needs to do is remember Ronald Reagan’s outburst at a debate in New Hampshire during the 1980 presidential campaign - “I’m paying for this microphone!” It was the turning point in his run for the presidency. It could be that each of the seven Democratic candidates are hoping for just such a turning point themselves.

Hollings Endorses Kerry

Senator Fritz Hollings was expected to endorse the presidential campaign of Senate colleague John Kerry at a 4 p.m. announcement today. More will be posted as it becomes available.

[Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative]

Kerry's Electibility

From TNR:

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry likes to say that, if he’s the Democratic nominee and President Bush wants to make the election a referendum on national security, he has just three words to say: “Bring It On!” But what if Kerry becomes the nominee and Bush wants to make the election more than a referendum on national security? What would the Republicans bring on then?

In all likelihood, they would hammer Kerry for his opposition to mandatory minimum sentences for dealers who sell drugs to children and for voting against the death penalty for terrorists. They would mock his efforts to provide cash benefits to drug addicts and alcoholics, and his onetime opposition to a modest work requirement for welfare recipients. They would trash him for supporting more than half a trillion dollars in tax increases-including hikes in gas taxes and Social Security taxes on ordinary Americans-while accepting free housing and other goodies for himself from friendly influence-peddlers. They would even point out that, when Kerry served as lieutenant governor under one Michael S. Dukakis, Massachusetts famously furloughed more than 500 murderers and sex offenders under a program Kerry later defended as tough.

S.C. Primary News 1/22

Cross-posted at Backcountry Conservative.

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
No Events
[Remaining Schedule at Bottom of Post]

News:
The campaign of John Edwards announced that Gephardt’s state director Ike Williams (who also is an aide to Congressman Jim Clyburn) has joined the Edwards campaign.

Dan Hoover covers the Edwards visit to Greenville in today’s Greenville News (excerpts below.) The article also mentions that Clyburn is personally undecided on a possible endorsement, but that 6 of the remaining candidates (all except Kucinich) have contacted him.

The State also reports on the Edwards visit and the Ike Williams announcement.

The jockeying for Clyburn’s support and the reason for it are also covered in today’s edition of The State (excerpts below.) Clyburn and Congressman John Spratt both previously endorsed Gephardt. Clyburn said he would wait until after New Hampshire if he were going to make another endorsement.

Edwards plugs roots, electability in Upstate homecoming:

Thirteen days from South Carolina’s presidential primary, Sen. John Edwards touted his Upstate roots and shifted into an electability theme Wednesday before a downtown Greenville crowd.
Fresh from the Iowa caucuses where a week-long surge propelled him into a once unlikely second-place finish, Edwards told approximately 125 people shoehorned into Meador’s Sandwich Co., “I came here today to ask you to vote for me, every person you know to vote for me, to get them to the polls that day.”

Edwards said when friends and acquaintance question whether he is “the guy they’ve been looking for, is this the guy that can beat Bush?,” he said people should respond: “This is the guy that can beat George Bush every place in America: in the North, in the West, in the Midwest, in Iowa, where we just came from, and, talking like this, in the South.”

The latter brought the event’s loudest round of applause.

The freshman North Carolina senator was born in Seneca and spent part of his boyhood there before his family moved to Georgia. They later settled in Robbins, N.C.

To the argument that Bush is particularly strong in the South, Edwards said the answer is that “the South is not George Bush’s backyard, it’s my backyard.”

Afterward, Edwards and an enlarged traveling press corps flew back to New Hampshire where Democrats will go to the polls on Tuesday, one week before South Carolina’s first-in-the-South primary.

Democrats jockey for Clyburn’s support:

The answer from the 63-year-old Clyburn, vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus: I might not endorse at all.

“I may, but I may not … I’m not leaning toward anybody at this point in time. If I did, it would be after the (Jan. 27) New Hampshire primary.”

So what if the vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus endorses? What if he doesn’t? What does it matter?

Endorsements often don’t matter, but that’s not the case with Clyburn, said Neal Thigpen, a political science professor at Francis Marion University.

In a general election, most voters already have strong opinions before they read about a newspaper’s or politician’s endorsement. But with a primary, especially one as surprising and fluid as this year’s Democratic presidential primaries, he said, an endorsement such as Clyburn’s can carry tremendous weight….

…”Things are happening so fast, and there are so many candidates,” Thigpen said. “Voters get confused and want some guidance.”

For those who still believe that one man’s opinion won’t mean much Feb. 3, consider a bit of research from the Gephardt campaign.

Aiken native Bill Carrick, who was a media adviser to Gephardt, said the campaign’s pollster asked 600 likely S.C. Democratic voters in December how Clyburn’s endorsement would affect their opinions of Gephardt.

Sixty-five percent said they would be more likely to vote for Gephardt, 30 percent said it would make no difference, and 5 percent said it would make them less likely.

“We said, ‘Wow!’ Those are good numbers,” Carrick said….

…Of course, Clyburn’s is not the only endorsement that matters in South Carolina.

All the presidential candidates also have called U.S. Rep. John Spratt, the state’s only other Democratic member of the House. Spratt has served there for nearly 25 years, commanding respect as the ranking Democrat on the Budget Committee. He also had endorsed Gephardt.

Remaining Schedule:
1/23: 2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/27: Wesley Clark
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

http://www.jquinton.com/archives/000790.html">Yesterday’s Primary News

Election Vocabulary Lessons: Tracking Poll

[For those new to following primaries, caucuses and elections, I will occasionally give definitions of important or often-seen terms used in coverage]

What is a tracking poll?

Tracking polls Wednesday from New Hampshire measuring the preferences of likely voters for Democratic presidential candidates. A tracking poll is taken every night with the findings of the last two or three nights rolled together to offer nightly results.

Name of the poll, dates, number of likely voters (LV) and margin of error (MoE) in percentage points are listed. If totals don’t reach 100 percent, the remainder were not sure or refused to answer.

[Source: Boston.com]

Got an election question? We’re here to help.

What You Don't Know About John Kerry

Ed Note (Alan … again): Check out the NewsMax site when you read this article to get a flavor for their viewpoint. Additionally, the nature of this article in particular borders on Op-Ed; consider it accordingly. As with prior pieces … I’m not agreeing or disagreeing … just informing.

———————-

Newsmax trys to dig up some skeletons in Kerry’s closet.

With his win in Iowa, Sen. John Kerry could be on his way to the White House. But most Americans are unaware of the real Kerry.

Here are facts and quotations that reveal the character of the new Democrat leader.
[…]

Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 23, 1971, Kerry claimed that U.S. soldiers had “raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam.”

The expose goes on to include sections entitled: “Denouncing America with ‘Hanoi’ Jane”, “Those evil American soldiers”, and “We are not the best”, and leans heavily on Kerry’s anti-war protest record during the Vietnam years.

Kerry Takes Lead - Or Does He?

According to The Boston Herald, Kerry has surged in front:

Sen. John F. Kerry has catapulted into a 10-point New Hampshire lead six days before the nation’s first primary, bouncing out of Iowa and over longtime frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a new Boston Herald poll.

But take a look at this Zogby poll, which has Dean leading:

What does this prove? Nothing much except that it’s foolish to depend on polls.

Humor Post: "Hardcore Dean"

I debated about putting this on Op-Ed, but I think it’s in the spirit of good fun. So if you haven’t had the email already, enjoy this mp3 of Hardcore Dean.

Personally, I think it makes him sound cool.

Did John Edwards Use Junk Science To Make Over $152 Million in Groundless Lawsuits?

Note from Alan: Please note that the story posted below is by CNS, the Cybercast News Service, a non-profit media outlet run by the Media Research Center. From MRC’s web site:

The Cybercast News Service was launched on June 16, 1998 as a news source for individuals, news organizations and broadcasters who put a higher premium on balance than spin and seek news that’s ignored or under-reported as a result of media bias by omission.

Study after study by the Media Research Center, the parent organization of CNSNews.com, clearly demonstrate a liberal bias in many news outlets – bias by commission and bias by omission – that results in a frequent double-standard in editorial decisions on what constitutes “news.”

I’m not saying I agree or disagree … but as CNS is a non-traditional news service, wanted to make sure you interpret the news and headline posted by nikita with greater context.

——————————

Via CNS News:

Did ‘Junk Science’ Make John Edwards Rich?
By Marc Morano
CNSNews.com Senior Staff Writer
January 20, 2004

(CNSNews.com) - The superstar trial lawyer accomplishments of John Edwards, which allowed this former millworker to amass a personal fortune, finance his successful U.S. Senate run in 1998 and catapult himself into the 2004 race for president, may have been partially built on “junk science,” according to legal and medical experts who spoke with CNSNews.com .

Edwards, who with a late surge finished second in Monday’s Iowa Caucuses, continues to cite one of his most lucrative legal victories as an example of how he would stand up for “the little guy” if elected president.

Edwards became one of America’s wealthiest trial lawyers by winning record jury verdicts and settlements in cases alleging that the botched treatment of women in labor and their deliveries caused infants to develop cerebral palsy, a brain disorder that causes motor function impairment and lifelong disability.

Although he was involved in other types of personal injury litigation, Edwards specialized in infant cerebral palsy and brain damage cases during his early days as a trial lawyer and with the Raleigh, N.C., firm of Edwards & Kirby.

Edwards has repeatedly told campaign audiences that he fought on behalf of the common man against the large insurance companies. But a political critic with extensive knowledge of Edwards’ legal career in North Carolina told CNSNews.com a different story

“Edwards always helped the little guy as long as he got a million dollars out of it,” said the source, who did not want to be identified.

• * *

“The overwhelming majority of children that are born with developmental brain damage, the ob/gyn could not have done anything about it, could not have, not at this stage of what we know,” Goldstein added.

The medical and legal experts with whom CNSNews.com consulted said each case of cerebral palsy had to be evaluated on its own, but that medical science was increasingly exonerating the doctors involved in the labor and delivery where cerebral palsy resulted.

Eldon L. Boisseau of the Kansas-based firm Turner and Boisseau, specializing in defending doctors’ insurance companies from medical malpractice lawsuits, agreed that physician-caused cerebral palsy “occurs only rarely.”

“At the end of the day, I verily believe we will find [the cause of cerebral palsy is] all genetic,” Boisseau said in an interview with CNSNews.com.

Dr. John Freeman, a professor of neurology and pediatrics at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Md., also believes there is little obstetricians can do to prevent cerebral palsy during delivery. “Most cases of cerebral palsy are not due to asphyxia,” Freeman told CNSNews.com.

“A great many of these cases are due to subtle infections of the child before birth,” Freeman said. “That is the cause of the premature labor and the cause of the [brain] damage. There is little or no evidence that if you did a [caesarean] section a short time earlier you would prevent cerebral palsy,” he added.

‘Heart wrenching plea’

But some of Edwards’ critics say that as a trial lawyer, he relied more on his verbal skills than the latest scientific evidence to persuade juries that the doctors’ mistakes had been instrumental in causing the cerebral palsy in the infants.

Edwards’ trial summaries “routinely went beyond a recitation of his case to a heart-wrenching plea to jurors to listen to the unspoken voices of injured children,” according to a comprehensive analysis of Edwards’ legal career by The Boston Globe in 2003.

The Globe cited an example of Edwards’ oratorical skills from a medical malpractice trial in 1985. Edwards had alleged that a doctor and a hospital had been responsible for the cerebral palsy afflicting then-five-year-old Jennifer Campbell.

‘I have to tell you right now — I didn’t plan to talk about this — right now I feel her (Jennifer), I feel her presence,’ Edwards told the jury according to court records. “[Jennifer’s] inside me and she’s talking to you … And this is what she says to you. She says, ‘I don’t ask for your pity. What I ask for is your strength. And I don’t ask for your sympathy, but I do ask for your courage.’”

Edwards’ emotional plea worked. Jennifer Campbell’s family won a record jury verdict of $6.5 million against the hospital where the girl was born — a judgment reduced later to $2.75 million on appeal. Edwards also settled with Jennifer’s obstetrician for $1.5 million.

Legal expert Walter Olson, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of the book, The Rule of Lawyers, said Edwards’ success in court was due in large part to his mastery of one important trait.

“Edwards was clearly very good at managing the emotional tenor of a trial and that turns out to be at least as important as any particular skill in the sense of researching the fine points of law,” Olson told CNSNews.com .

“These are the skills that you find in successful trial lawyers. They can tell a story that produces a certain emotional response. It’s a gift,” Olson added.

However, Olson believes trial lawyers “have been getting away with an awful lot in cerebral palsy litigation,” by excluding certain scientific evidence.

• * *

According to the Center for Public Integrity, Edwards was able to win “more than $152 million” based on his involvement in 63 lawsuits alone. The legal profession recognized Edwards’ achievements by inducting him into the prestigious legal society called the Inner Circle of Advocates, which includes the nation’s top 100 lawyers. Lawyers Weekly also cited Edwards as one of America’s “Lawyers of the Year” in 1996.

• * *

…the medical malpractice suits that enabled Edwards and other trial lawyers to become rich and famous are crippling medical specialties like obstetrics, emergency room medicine and neurosurgery.

“A few years ago every neurosurgeon in Washington D.C., had been sued, and it can’t be because the nation’s capital gets only bad neurosurgeons. It’s because it’s too tempting to file against the competent ones because so many terrible things go wrong with their patients,” Olson added.

Edwards, who opposes legislation that would cap damages in liability lawsuits, would not respond to repeated requests through his campaign offices for comment.

The above story was found via related posts at Andrew Sullivan (scroll down) and overlawyered.com.

Kerry Gains Cash Yardage, But May Have to Punt Tom Brady

Ok, I tried too hard with the football headline.

Contributions to the Kerry campaign have soared 40 percent in the past week, and about $250,000 in donations was received through campaign Web site since his Iowa win, the adviser said.

The senator’s campaign also picked up the tactical support of 20 prominent Democratic advisers in New Hampshire who had planned to work for Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri.

But the one thing Kerry wants is still in the hands of Bush: Tom Brady.

According to Drudge, Kerry is looking to steal the Patriots quarterback from the Bush camp.

Of course, if the Pats lose the Super Bowl, Brady will no longer be the hot commodity he is now. In fact, he may not even be a hot commodity come April. Let’s see who gets the coveted A-Rod vote!

S.C. Primary News 1/21

[Cross-posted from Backcountry Conservative]

Yesterday’s Primary News

Today’s Schedule:
8:30 a.m.: John Edwards, Greenville, Meadors Sandwich Co., Downtown
11 a.m.: Hadassah Lieberman, College of Charleston, American Government Class, 316 Maybank Bldg.
2:45 p.m.: Hadassah Lieberman, Beaufort, Beaufort-Jasper Economic Opportunity Commission Head Start Center
7 p.m.: Voter Information Forum, College of Charleston Democrats, Physicians Auditorium
[Remaining schedule at the bottom of this post.]

News:
Edwards’ profile rises for state primary from today’s Greenville News (excerpts below.)

More on attempts to woo Gephardt supporters and news that Rep. Jim Clyburn might decide on a new endorsement as early as today from the Charleston Post & Courier (excerpts below.)

The State reports that Congressman Jim Clyburn will hold a conference call with reporters today to discuss his plans (excerpts below.)

Kerry playing catch-up in S.C. from The State (excerpts below.)

Today in S.C. Politics from the Post & Courier.

The Iowa Democratic Party is loaning staff and equipment to South Carolina Democrats to aid in tallying vote totals.

Caucus Crazies By Larry Donaldson

Democratic campaigns responded to controversial remarks made Monday at a MLK prayer service.

Kevin McGeehee links to an article from the Atlanta-Journal Constitution on Edwards vs. Kerry in S.C.

Edwards’ profile rises for state primary:

Edwards, 50, a freshman senator and native of Seneca who has emphasized his South Carolina roots, may now be the emerging favorite in this state’s first-in-the-South primary on Feb. 3, analysts said following his strong showing Monday in Iowa behind Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry….

…State Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin said Iowa’s results confirmed “a wide-open, competitive national race. The road to victory leads straight through South Carolina and South Carolina Democrats are ready for a great fight.” …

…John Simpkins, a Furman University political scientist, said he doubts Gephardt’s departure will make a difference for any one candidate because “he had low poll numbers and no strong organizational presence here.”

But, he said that Edwards could be “poised to pick up voters who might have been attracted to Rep. Gephardt’s working class background and his up-by-the-bootstraps personal story.”…

…”I was hoping he’d do good, but I had my doubts a couple of weeks ago,” said an Upstate Edwards booster, Sen. Glenn Reese of Spartanburg. “After (Monday), I think we’re on track.”…

…To University of Virginia presidential scholar Larry Sabato, “Finally, the best campaigner of the post-Clinton Democratic generation has drawn the spotlight so that he can demonstrate his considerable skills.” Sabato posted the comment Tuesday on his political Web site….

…Now, he will compete in South Carolina as the favorite, Sabato said….

…He will return to Columbia on Friday and come back to South Carolina early next week either just before or after New Hampshire where he has lagged far behind Dean, Clark, and the now surging Kerry.

Alex Mumford, Greenville County’s Democratic Party chairman, said Iowa “definitely” gives Edwards credibility in South Carolina that his modest poll ratings had previously denied him.

Kerry, an austere New Englander and Vietnam War veteran, is more of an enigma in South Carolina….

…Dean’s three dozen South Carolina staff members huddled in Saluda Shoals much of the day.

Stacie Paxton, Dean’s South Carolina spokeswoman, said Iowa changed nothing for the campaign.

“We came into South Carolina to win and we’re still playing it that way,” she said. “Now that Iowa’s over, we’re expecting an onslaught of national press and a whole lot of volunteers to start heading this way.”…

…The top prize from Gephardt’s departure wasn’t tipping his hand.

Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia will discuss the primary in a conference call this afternoon with reporters, but won’t necessarily endorse another candidate, said Hope Derrick, his spokeswoman. Clyburn’s top aide, Ike Williams, had managed Gephardt’s state campaign.

Edwards telephoned Clyburn on Monday night, said Jenni Engebretsen, Edwards’ South Carolina spokeswoman. She would not comment on the nature of the conversation. Clyburn, the state’s highest elected black official, had worked at home and across the country for Gephardt and said previously he would not make another endorsement. But that’s standard procedure for a candidate’s top allies because such an admission would suggest a lack of confidence….

…Engebretsen said the campaign is making a concerted effort to win over former Gephardt supporters and “we’ve been getting a lot of calls from them.”

Among the first aboard was state Rep. Leon Howard, D-Columbia, she said.

Mumford said that before lunch on Tuesday, he had several calls from Gephardt supporters who told him they were moving to Clark. “I really think he made a hit (Monday) at Southside High School” with fiery criticism of the Bush administration.

“He speaks the language our folks want to hear,” Mumford said.

He said conversations with Greenville Democrats have followed a trend: “They don’t think Dean will do very well down here, and I think that’s probably reasonably accurate. You can apply the same to Edwards. You wouldn’t expect him to do as well in New England.”…

Political camps woo Gephardt’s staff, resources, votes in S.C.:

It took just a few hours after the Iowa caucuses for the surviving Democrats to start picking at the political carcass of Dick Gephardt in South Carolina.
Starting as early as 1 a.m. Tuesday, cell phones were abuzz as the remaining contenders tried to woo Gephardt’s South Carolina staff and volunteers for the state’s now potentially decisive Feb. 3 primary.

The camps of Wesley Clark, Howard Dean and John Edwards all contacted Gephardt’s Columbia headquarters looking to poach workers, telephone numbers and turnout lists.

“They want to hear you say ‘Here it is, come and get it,’ ” said Ike Williams, who ran the Gephardt campaign in South Carolina.

Still, the biggest prize wasn’t talking Tuesday. U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s office said he would have no comment about his role in the primary until today….

…Representatives of the Edwards camp, however, seemed buoyed by Clyburn’s remarks late Monday that the North Carolina senator was best-positioned to get former Gephardt backers since the two men have similar resumes.

“Everyone would like to have Clyburn’s endorsement,” Edwards’ press spokeswoman Jenni Engebretsen said Tuesday.

Other prominent Gephardt supporters were bombarded throughout the day Tuesday as word quickly spread that his national campaign was ending and his South Carolina network was breaking up.

James Sanderson, union leader at the Georgetown Steel mill, said he was called by an Edwards supporter at 8:30 Tuesday morning asking for him to appear with Edwards at a rally in Georgetown before the vote.

The United Steel Workers of America had endorsed Gephardt, and the votes of Sanderson and several hundred other unemployed steel workers from Georgetown were expected to be a significant prize on the coast….

…Other representatives of South Carolina labor said Gephardt’s exit frees them up to become more active in other campaigns. Among them is International Longshoremen’s Association union chief Ken Riley of Charleston, who said he plans to expand his support for U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the winner in Iowa.

The ILA national office endorsed Gephardt last year, but Riley had separately committed to Kerry. “Now it means I don’t have the decision haunting me that the national made,” Riley said….

…What remains uncertain about the Democrats’ selection process is how South Carolina’s black vote will be swayed by both the Iowa results and Gephardt’s quick withdrawal. College of Charleston political scientist Jamie McKown said the black vote probably will divide itself after Gephardt’s exit but that many will still be looking to Clyburn, the state’s leading black political figure.

” ‘Is he going to throw his weight in any direction?’ is a question I think everyone wants answered,” McKown said, adding that clues come through subtle quotes from Clyburn about a candidate or by his appearance at certain rallies.

Clyburn not ready for new commitment

As the most powerful black politician in an important primary state where up to half of Democratic voters are black, Clyburn’s endorsement is worth courting. He is known among South Carolina Democrats as “the kingmaker.”

But in the immediate aftermath of Iowa, the congressman has kept quiet about his plans, and sources close to his campaign say he may not endorse anyone until the party has chosen a nominee.

“His campaign is over, but the Democratic principles and priorities that Dick Gephardt fought for so passionately are still going strong,” Clyburn said. “Democrats have a strong slate of candidates, and I am confident that our nominee will lead a formidable challenge to the president this November.”

Today, he plans a conference call with reporters to talk about his plans.

Kerry playing catch-up in S.C.

“Organizations are probably the most important thing,” said former U.S. Rep. Butler Derrick, D-S.C. “The Democratic primary is about getting out the vote and that’s what organizations do. The best contact is one-on-one, candidate to voter.

“But if you can’t get that, it has to be the candidates’ representatives and the voter.”

But organization is just what Kerry lacks in South Carolina, a state whose first-in-the-South Democratic primary could clinch the race for the presidential nomination. Kerry, who weakened his South Carolina campaign to strengthen his forces in Iowa, already has begun rebuilding here.

The two staff members the Kerry campaign sent to the caucuses are already on their way back, and the campaign is signing up as many volunteers as they can to supplement the 321 South Carolinians already fanning out across the state for the Massachusetts senator….

…The Dean campaign, for example, counts 50 paid staff in South Carolina. The Edwards camp opened four South Carolina offices. And Clark’s organization boasts 2,000 volunteers here.

Joe Lieberman, slipping in the polls and low on funds, is hoping his relatively strong South Carolina organization will deliver him a respectable showing on Feb. 3….

…The Kerry campaign says it will catch up to its rivals. Until then, Kerry spokesman David DiMartino is emphasizing the campaign’s spirit and smarts.

“It’s lean and mean,” said DiMartino. “We knew what we had to do to do well in Iowa to do that. We know what we have to do to do well in South Carolina and we will do that. We will be aggressive on the air and on the ground.”…

…”Those organizations got trumped this week by Kerry’s willingness to spend a great deal of money on media buys,” said Gomez.

In other words, Kerry plastered his face on television screens across the Iowa plains, and it worked.

In South Carolina too, Gomez said, “broadcast politics is required.”

Remaining Schedule:
1/23: 2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/27: Wesley Clark
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday’s Primary News

New Hampshire Latest: Dean Falls, Kerry Gains

American Research Group has posted today’s three-day tracking number heading into next week’s New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. Following on the heels of Sen. John Kerry’s win in the Iowa caucus, and Howard Dean’s third-place finish, ARG finds support dropping for the former Vermont Governor.

Here’s the current polling number:

Dean - 26 percent support among likely N.H. Democratic primary voters
Kerry - 24
Clark - 18
Edwards - 9
Lieberman - 7
Undecided - 13

The results are from voters questioned about their preferences between Jan. 18 and Jan. 20, and reflect one day of consideration following the Iowa results.

Gallup Watch: State of the Union Numbers

A Gallup “instant-reaction” poll of Americans who watched President Bush’s State of the Union address last night turns out some upbeat numbers for the White House, but not as upbeat as his post-9/11 or pre-Iraq War speeches:

Overall, 76% of speech watchers say their reaction to the speech is positive, with 45% saying “very” positive.
Last year, 84% said positive, with 50% very positive.
Two years ago, 94% were positive, with 74% very positive.

The reaction to his proposals was good, as well. Gallup found that 70 percent of Americans polled believe his policies will “move the country in the right direction,” while 26 percent think otherwise. That’s about the same as a year ago. And 29 percent who watched the speech say they have more confidence Bush can move the economy in the right direction, while nine percent who watched it think he’ll move it in the wrong direction.

Key demographic: More Republicans watched the speech than Democrats.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)

Kerry's Bounce

John Kerry’s Iowa bouce is already showing up in New Hampshire tracking polls:

Zogby (Jan 18-20 MoE± 4):
Dean 25%
Kerry 23%
Clark 16%
Edwards 7%
Lieberman 7%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 0%

We’ll probably see a little more bouce. This poll has data from the 18th and 19th which skew the numbers.
Undecided 20%

Edwards Picks Up a Gephardt Endorsement

From Eye on Edards:

Peter Burling, the Democratic leader of the New Hampshire state House, is now backing U.S. Sen. John Edwards’ presidential bid.

Burling previously endorsed U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, who dropped out of the presidential race Tuesday after a 4th place finish in Iowa.

“For me, it ultimately comes down to the question I’ve asked all along: ‘Who’s the most electable?’” Burling said in an interview.

Bush In 30 Seconds Runs

The winning MoveOn.org Bush in 30 Seconds ad just ran during the post-SOTU Larry King on CNN.

SOTU Reader Spin

Pass? Fail? Strong? Weak? Relevant? Spin? If you missed our State of the Union Chat, offer your take here in the comments.

Counter Spin: The Dem Blog Response

The headlines and leads from the Dem candidate blogs:

• DEAN: The State of Our Union: Last year at this time, George Bush stood up and misled the American people. This year, as he speaks again, you can write about the real effect George Bush’s policies have had on your life and your community — speak out here. You can also offer your reaction here on the blog, in Chat for America, or in the forums. And don’t forget to download TomPaine.com’s State of the Union scorecard to track George Bush spinning, ignoring or simply misrepresenting the issues American people care about.

• EDWARDS: OPEN THREAD: State Of Two Americas: Tonight is the State of the Union Address by President Bush. Read Senator Edwards’ statement on tonight’s Address: “When the president says, ‘The state of our union is strong,’ you need to ask ‘which union Mr. President?’” Edwards said. “Because the state of George Bush’s union-the America of the Washington lobbyists, special interests and his CEO friends-is doing just fine. They get what they want, whenever they want.

• KERRY: Have Fun with the State of the Union—Is It Possible?: I once had the luck to cage a ticket into one of Clinton’s State of the Union speeches. That was fun. But I would rather have my wisdom teeth pulled again than have to sit through George Bush’s State of the Union address tonight. I mean, how many times can you stomach watching the Republicans leap to their feet for another phony standing ovation? For those of you with tougher constitutions, TomPaine.com has a special feature to make the experience a little more educational. Click on the TomPaine icon below and get your very own State of the Union scorecard. When Bush is done, you can send your results back to TomPaine.com, and they’ll total up the results. (And come back to the blog and tell us what you thought).

• LIEBERMAN: State of the Union: Tonight at 9:00 pm ET George Bush will deliver his State of the Union address. Use the thread below to discuss the speech then don’t forget to tune in and watch Joe’s reaction after the speech. Joe will be on PBS’s Charlie Rose Show at 11:00 pm ET and then Hardball with Chris Matthews at 11:30 pm ET.

Simulblog: The Democratic Response

My simulblog of Daschle’s and Pelosi’s response:

• The State of our Union is indeed strong

• The State of the Union address should offer a vision to America

• We draw inspiration from our soldiers abroad

• Dems have an unwavering comittement to our national security and our armed forces

• Even the most powerful nation on earth must “bring other nations to our side”

• Prez has pursued a “go it alone” policy, stealing resources we need for education and healthcare here at home

• Prez led us into Iraq on the basis of unproven assertions … “he embraced a radical doctrine of preemptive war unprecedented in our history.”

• Amercian taxpayers are bearing all the cost and our troops are bearing all the casualties.

• “America must be a light to the world, not just a missle.”

• (Pelosi invokes JFK)

• Pelosi describes Haliburton as a “politically connected firm” enjoying “no bid contracts”

• We know what we need to do to protect America, “but this administration is failing to meet the challenge”

• We need to inspect all containers coming into the US, and all nuke plants must have higher security, first-repsonders need real-time communication, we must secure “100%” of enriched uranium and other material for WMD (does she mean globally?)

• We can do better and should require a higher standard

Now for Tom Daschle:

• State of Union is strong … but can be stronger still

• We are losing jobs, and need to correct more

• Millions of children are being denied what they were promised re: education, and tuitions at public colleges have increased nearly $600 since Bush took office.

• Dramatically fewer Americans have healthcare, and they are paying higher premiums … “an invisible tax increase” on many Amercians

• Tax cuts will weaken health coverage

• “In our vision of an opportunity society, promises made to those who have worked a lifetime will be honored in retirement” … so Soc. Sec should be a “gaurantee, not a gamble.”

Hope this was of use … and pardon the typos.

Full Text Of The SOTU

Here’s the full text of the speech, via NYTimes.

Tip to Laurence.

SOTU Simulblog

I’m blogging these impressions live, so forgive any typos:

• What you see on CSPAN but not on the major networks: Cheney welcoming all the key dignitaries by name, and asking the escorts to leave the chamber and prepare for the entrance of the CIC.

• They now welcome the First Lady to her seat, and the acting Dean of the diplomatic corps … again, pomp and circumstance we don’t see on NBC.

• Colin Powell enters his last SOTU as SecState …

• Notice that Tom Ridge’s tie does NOT match our current threat level (he’s wearing burgundy)

• THE CAMPAIGN HAS BEGUN … Bush hugs a baby during his walk down the aisle …

• Our troops are good … our workers are good … tax cut is good … drug benefit is good …

• The main message of the overture: Don’t turn back now. (My observation … we’re strong, leave it to the Dems to say we are weak)

• The Patriot Act is “essential” … we need to renew … “the terrorist threat will not expire on that schedule.”

• “The people of Iraq are free” … and the US “enforced” the demands of the UN

• Lybia is because we backed diplomacy with force

• And Iran should keep their promises, too

• “The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States, and war is what they got.”

• “For all who love peace …. the world without Saddam Hussein’s regime is a safer place.”

• “America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country.”

• “Expect a higher standards from our friend” in the Mid-East … (does this mean Pakistan?)

• On the economy, same message as with Nat. Secuirty … things are strong and getting better (Observation: Leave the negative message to the Dems … let them tell you things are weak.)

• We need to stick with No Child, and provide more support to higher ed

• Create personal retirement accounts

• My budget will do everything I want while limiting the growth in descretionary spending to less than 4% … we can cut the deficit in half over the next five years.

• Health Savings Account is good … and “any attempt to limit the choice of our seniors … will meet my veto.”

• Please pass Association Health Plans.

• Please give Americans a refundable tax credit that they can use to buy insurance … and lets computerize health records while we’re at it.

• A second shot at frivolous lawsuits … needless lawsuits are bad (again)

• People who buy catastrophic coverage as part of the health savings accounts should be able to deduct 100% of the premiums from their taxes.

• “A government run health care system is the wrong prescription.”

• (Uhhh … did not expect to type this) Steroiods are bad, and should be banned

• Marraige … (it sounds like he’s saying we need to protect it via the constitutional process)

• We need to help faith-based charities … and prisoners who have been released from prison … Bush proposes a 4-year, $300 million prisoner Re-Entry Initiative

• Read the full text to understand this: Yes Ashley, there is a US Army …

Hope this was useful … overall, it should reflect the argumentative flow of the speech. I’ve already posted the full text of the address above this entry, and thanks for reading the Post.

Why S.C. is important

NPR had a good chat with a political columnist from “the State” newspaper today about why the South Carolina primary is getting a lot of attention from candidates: it’s the first chance for African Americans to have their say.

Candidates plan for South Carolina run

Columnist estimated Al Sharpton might pull in 20 percent of the black vote.

Clark ad runs before SOU in S.C.

Wesley Clark’s campaign ad runs immediately before the SOU on NBC affiliate in Greenville, S.C.

Now Open: Live State Of The Union Chat

We’re opening the Command Post chat room so Command Post readers can talk with each other live about tonight’s State of the Union Address, the news coverage of the event, and politics in general.

Here are the basic facts:

• Join the chat by clicking the link below

• Register your nickname and password (great idea to use the same Nick as you do in our comments)

• Select the “Default” room

• Click the “Chat” button

Last night’s Iowa Caucus chat was a lot of fun and informative for all, and we hope this is, too. Keep it clean and respectful, and have fun.

A Preview OF What You'll Hear

As you may know, each year the White House press office primes the media pump by pre-releasing drafts of the SOU address to key media outlets. These pre-releases are the source of the “The President Will Address These Themes” stories you’ve already seen in today’s media.

But you don’t need to read the media’s spin to learn the themes … get it from the White House itself. Here you can read the White House pre-speech spin page, and here are some of the lines you’ll hear Bush deliver tonight:

“America this evening is a Nation called to great responsibilities. And we are rising to meet them…”

“We have not come all this way – through tragedy, and trial, and war – only to falter and leave our work unfinished. Americans are rising to the tasks of history, and they expect the same of us.”

“Our greatest responsibility is the active defense of the American people. Twenty-eight months have passed since September 11, 2001 – over two years without an attack on American soil – and it is tempting to believe that the danger is behind us. That hope is understandable, comforting – and false.”

“…America is on the offensive against the terrorists…”

“As part of the offensive against terror, we are also confronting the regimes that harbor and support terrorists, and could supply them with nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons…”

“…Because of American leadership and resolve, the world is changing for the better…”

“The men and women of Afghanistan are building a nation that is free, and proud, and fighting terror…”

“The work of building a new Iraq is hard, and it is right. And America has always been willing to do what it takes for what is right.”

“America’s growing economy is also a changing economy. As technology transforms the way almost every job is done, America becomes more productive, and workers need new skills… We must respond by helping more Americans gain the skills to find good jobs in our new economy.”

“On the critical issue of health care, our goal is to ensure that Americans can choose and afford private health care cove