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2004 US Presidential Election
September 30, 2003The Voter Integrity ProjectVery interesting article in the Wall St. Journal about voter fraud, and steps being taken to comabt it: "Courts are playing an increasing role in elections. Soon after Oct. 7, if either the recall or the vote for a replacement governor in the Golden State is close, the lawyers will certainly be back in court. And that's not the only race that may be litigated. This fall's race for mayor of Philadelphia also promises to be close. Huffington Might Drop Recall BidFrom SFGate: Independent commentator Arianna Huffington said Monday she is strongly considering leaving the recall race, signaling a growing fear among the political left that Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger stands a good chance of becoming California's next governor. Link via Drudge September 29, 2003September 28, 2003Davis Offers; Schwarzenneger DeclinesAccording to CNN, Gov. Gray Davis invited Arnold to a debate on Larry King, and the former actor declined. The Schwarzenneger campaign claims this is an act of desperation from Davis who is not even running against Schwarzenneger in the October 7th election. Back to the Absurdity; Watch the CA DebateWell, I'm back to the reality of our political process this morning after a day of unbelieveable baseball. If you too missed the last gubernatorial debate, Tom McClintock is graciously offering his broadband for our edification. Thanks to Austin Barrow at Poliart for this link. The Numbers on ClarkWhile Clark's debut national poll numbers were quite impressive, two recent polls of NH primary voters, the Marist College Poll and Zogby, show Clark a distant third in that state. By that metric, Howard Dean remains the "front-runner". September 25, 2003Edwards Proposes Campaign ReformFrom the Des Moines Register: Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards proposed Tuesday to bar lobbyists who push federal legislation from contributing money to federal election campaigns. The Model of a Modern Political GeneralUPDATE : For a closely-reasoned fact-filled critique of this whole article saying politely why I'm full of it, see the Comments section by a Clark campaigner. Long, Detailed, and definitely worth a read.
Well, I'll try to be objective, but please bear in mind George W. Bush's policies on trade, especially as regards Steel Imports, have hurt my country pretty badly in the hip-pocket nerve. And my own personal belief is that a Healthy Democracy needs a Healthy Opposition to "keep the Bastards Honest" as we say here in Oz. Howard Dean... doesn't cut the mustard, and he's the best of a very dreary bunch. This stuff is important to us. So I was all ready to greet General Clark as one Democrat who had both some foreign policy nous, and experience of helping to run a humongous organisation, namely, the US Army. Then I looked "behind the scenes".
(Hat Tip to Thief's Den for tracking this one down) The picture shows General Clark trading hats with his pal, Bosnian Serb Gen. Ratko Mladic, now an indicted war criminal and fugitive from justice. Have a look at the expression on the face of the British officer to Clark's left. From the Weekly Standard : Clark accepted as gifts Mladic's hat, a bottle of brandy, and a pistol inscribed in Cyrillic, U.S. officials said. 'It's like cavorting with Hermann Goering,' one U.S. official complained." As for what former colleagues, superiors and subordinates have said about him... ... here's an assessment that appeared in the Los Altos Town Crier : "What do you think of General Wesley Clark and would you support him as a presidential candidate," was the question put to him [General H.Hugh Sheldon, former Chief of the General Staff] by moderator Dick Henning, assuming that all military men stood in support of each other. General Shelton took a drink of water and Henning said, "I noticed you took a drink on that one!" Then there's what some former subordinates and co-workers had to say on Counterpunch : "The poster child for everything that is wrong with the GO (general officer) corps," exclaims one colonel, who has had occasion to observe Clark in action, citing, among other examples, his command of the 1st Cavalry Division at Fort Hood from 1992 to 1994. As for his judgement in times of crisis - well, it's not often that I'll quote the Grauniad, but this is what they had to say : As allied troops moved into Kosovo, 200 Russian troops made a surprise dash from Bosnia and occupied Pristina airport, where [UK] General Sir Mike Jackson, the commander of the international K-For peacekeeping force, was to make his headquarters.This from a paper not known for its sympathies for the US Republican party. A less immediately condemning version is in Wikipedia : Clark, in an NPR interview, said that the incident was a surprising moment for him. Clark indicated that his order to block the runways was refused by an emotional Jackson and that he took the matter up the British chain of command. Clark stated that General Sir Charles Guthrie, British Chief of the Defence Staff, agreed with Jackson. Guthrie, according to Clark, also told him that Hugh Shelton the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff also agreed with him. Clark found this very surprising since the original suggestion to block the Russians came from Washington. Clark called the Pentagon, looking for support, and was told by Shelton: "We don't want a confrontation, but I do support you". Clark said that he told Shelton: "Then you've got a policy problem". Clark maintained in the NPR interview that the matter was a difference in the perception of the policy between the US administration and the British government. Clark believed he was carrying out the suggestions of the administration in Washington.This is a guy who was supposed to be the NATO commander on the scene. OK, so his forward HQ was actually in Brussels, as far away from the action as possible. It took a special dispensation for him to get a Kosovo campaign medal, as he didn't qualify for one. But he's brave all right: One "suggestion" from "somewhere in Washington" and he orders a course of action that would very possibly lead to a shooting war with the Russians. General Clark is known to play rather fast and loose with the truth when it comes to "suggestions from Washington". Or even "suggestions from one guy in Canada". Again, from the Weekly Standard : ...reporter Tim Harper uncovered the identity of the man who supposedly called Wesley Clark on Sept. 11, 2001, urging him to go on CNN and blame Saddam Hussein for the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. So how did this guy get to be where he is today? Because he has some truly outstanding virtues. First in his class at West Point. Rhodes Scholar. And this from David H. Hackworth : Lt. Gen. James Hollingsworth, one of our Army's most distinguished war heroes, says: "Clark took a burst of AK fire, but didn't stop fighting. He stayed on the field till his mission was accomplished and his boys were safe. He was awarded the Silver Star and Purple Heart. And he earned 'em." But being a good friend of the Clintons helped even more, I'm sure. He is the very model of a modern Political General - not neccessarily a bad thing in a politician. As for General Clark's views on "Unilateral Action", they seem change markedly, depending on who is in power. From Col. Jafras USAF (Retd) : Nancy Hey began the questioning by expressing her opposition to the U.S. being the "World's Policeman." Clark went into a long explanation of how we can't stand by while people are being killed, there's genocide and ethnic cleansing, etc., etc. He acknowledged that we can't be everywhere but in the case of Kosovo we could do something. When Nancy pressed him about not getting involved in other countries' civil wars and internal problems, his reply was, "Shouldn't we have done something about the Holocaust?" I told him that trying to equate Kosovo to the Holocaust was ridiculous. When another person questioned his position that we should have gone in on the ground as one that would have resulted in unacceptable casualties, Clark replied that the Yugoslav Army in Kosovo, which remain hidden to avoid the bombing was demoralized and probable would not fight. The reason why General Clark has been so opposed to the Iraq war appears to be quite simple : Because it's the Republicans who're doing it. He has the whole Clinton electoral mafia (I don't use the word perjoratively) behind him. I think he's a shoe-in as Democratic VP candidate - if that's what he'll settle for. He's the consumate politician, and always has been. He knows which way the wind blows, and bends accordingly. A true "Little Napoleon". The question for US voters is, Do you want a politician - or a leader? And the answer to that is not just important to the USA, it's important to the whole world. September 24, 2003I Can't Believe I Missed the Recall DebateWell, I have to apologize to you all. I missed the CA Recall debate tonight. I had planned to watch it but I've just been a little preoccupied by our cursed (and hopefully blessed) Cubs. They're in first place in the last week of baseball and half of Chicago is afraid to turn the channel...or breathe for that matter. Anyway, from all the reports I've seen, it sounds like the debate was juicy. Here's a couple of classic bytes I found at Reuters: He [Schwarzenegger] lashed out at fellow immigrant Huffington, saying she had paid almost no personal income tax over the past two years. Clark's Goes DomesticWesley Clark, attacking his perceived weakness on domestic issues, has released a hefty 100 billion dollar jobs plan (link to document). Here's the breakdown of his three pronged approach from CNN: • A $40 billion fund would focus on improving homeland security by investing in infrastructure, such as hospitals, and training those who are the first to respond in emergencies. That fund would leave hospitals better prepared for potential biological and chemical attacks, provide money to hire more Coast Guard and customs workers, and secure ports, bridges and tunnels, Clark said. September 23, 2003Clark Would Have Been a RepublicanFrom Newsweek: Last January, at a conference in Switzerland, he happened to chat with two prominent Republicans, Colorado Gov. Bill Owens and Marc Holtzman, now president of the University of Denver. “I would have been a Republican,” Clark told them, “if Karl Rove had returned my phone calls.” Soon thereafter, in fact, Clark quit his day job and began seriously planning to enter the presidential race—as a Democrat. Messaging NEWSWEEK by BlackBerry, Clark late last week insisted the remark was a “humorous tweak.” The two others said it was anything but. “He went into detail about his grievances,” Holtzman said. “Clark wasn’t joking. We were really shocked.” Some Clark Commentary: Megan McArdle, Matthew Continetti (Weely Standard) September 22, 2003Election 2004 ... and Baseball?The Kerry/Dean battle has spilled onto holy ground. Kerry recently accused Dean of being a Yankee's fan. New Hampshire (the first and very important primary state) is Rex Sox country and Dean wisely declared his defection from pinstripes to red socks. But the Kerry camp jumped on this remarking that "Of all the flip flops, this is the most inexplicable and indefensible ... It’s like switching from the Redskins to the Cowboys or from Carolina to Duke." I keep waiting to hear "INFINITY!". (Source: Foster's Online) Dean Softens Tax StanceDean is doing a little back-tracking of his own. Dean has made himself an Democratic icon with his "repeal all Bush tax-cuts" mantra. Now, according to TNR and AP Dean is suggesting the repeal of 'some' Bush tax cuts. Why the sudden change. I would suggest that it is a combination of a couple of things. First, his inability to attain front-runner status even with his fund raising and media success is worrisome. Lieberman's success is proof that a contingency of moderates is not impressed with Dean so far. Second, the entrance of Wesley Clark into the campaign adds pressure on Dean to be "elect-able". What will be interesting is how diehard Dean-heads will respond to Dean’s overtures to the middle. Bush's Iowa Numbers Falling Rapidly ... So WhatThe Des Moines Register is reporting a new poll that shows Bush's state-wide approval rating at 49%, the lowest since he took office. This is an 18 point drop from the President's May numbers. Yet, keep in mind that 9 (now 10) presidential candidates have spent the last several months touring the state, Bush-bashing all along the way. I would estimate that the only state where Bush is probably getting worse press is New Hampshire. Iowa doesn't mean much to Bush until the fall. Clark Stumbles a Bit, Lieberman PouncesIs backtracking forgivable if it occurs only a day after the original track is laid? We'll have to see. In an interview on Thursday of last week Clark shocked supporters by mentioning that he probably would have voted for the Iraq resolution. Then on Friday he recanted "Let's make one thing real clear, I would never have voted for this war". (Source: CNN) Lieberman wasted no time jumping on Clark's misstep, remarking Sunday in an interview with the Des Moines Register: As commander in chief, as president, you've got to be able to decide what you think is right for the country's future with a clarity of judgment and have the courage to stick with it. Braun Announces CandidacyFar from giving up, Carol Moseley-Braun formally declared her candidacy this morning. September 19, 2003Clark Will DebateAfter a little confusion, Clark has signaled that he will debate his Democratic rivals next Thursday. This is a risky but necessary move on Clark's part. As a general rule only a clear front-runner can afford not to debate. The challengers have nothing to lose and therefore are usually more aggressive in going after the leader. The leader, trying to sit on a lead will try to say just enough not to say anything. Clark is neither and must play both parts to a degree. While not technically a front runner, his resume alone gives him that respect and he should not forget that, especially when discussing foreign policy. However, he still has to gain ground on the other candidates and therefore must be bold on domestic policy. Clark needs exposure because, while his poll numbers are not bad for a guy who just started his campaign, he is effectively bringing up the rear. A stellar performance next Thursday could payoff big time, making him a front-runner with rank and file Dems looking for an alternative to Dean. September 18, 2003Moore Supports ClarkThis post is for Rachel Lucas: Oscar-winning filmmaker Michael Moore, known as a tough critic of President George W. Bush, globalization's downside and the culture of arms, wants a new man in the White House: Democrat Wesley Clark.(Source: SIFY; cross-posted here.) Davis Files His Own LawsuitFrom the Modesto Bee: Predicting "government by marginal and extreme political forces" if the election to recall him goes forward as planned, Gov. Davis on Monday added his own lawsuit to the stacks awaiting court action. Full Story September 14, 2003Gephardt Opens FireFinally, Democrats seem to be realizing that they're running against each other at the moment and not Bush. As I said before, they have to beat Dean before they can beat Bush. Gephardt has launched his first real attacks on the former Vermont Governor, charging Dean with a Gringrichian politics on medicare. This from the Des Moines Register: "Howard Dean's beliefs about Medicare extend beyond merely disliking it. He's actually advocated cutting it and turning it into a wholly managed care program. And that's something I will never agree to," Gephardt told about 80 supporters at a noon-hour speech at the Teamsters Hall on Des Moines' east side. "Gov. Dean actually agreed with the Gingrich Republicans." September 11, 2003Dean-Clark in 2004?Gen. Clark Reportedly Is Asked to Join Dean Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean has asked retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark to join his campaign, if the former NATO commander does not jump into the race himself next week, and the two men discussed the vice presidency at a weekend meeting in California, sources familiar with the discussions said. This is a very interesting development, should it come to past. Firstly, as I have argued (here, here and here) Clark is not in the best position to enter the race and a Dean-Clark ticket would generate some buzz. Of course, it also is a risk, as teaming-up this early would make for a larger target for critics. Also, USA Today had a story on Clark's potential candidacy that is linked to from here. September 10, 2003Gustav Schwarzenegger ClearedSomehow this story got by me. I hadn't realized that Gustav Schwarzenegger, Ahhnold's father, was being investigated for his connections with the Nazis. He was apparently a member of a Nazi paramilitary group known as Storm Troopers but was not involved in any war crimes. At least that is the judgment of the Simon Wiesenthal Center a Jewish rights organization. Lieberman Accuses Dean Over IsraelThe Dems had a debate last night and the claws are starting to peek out from the paws; there's a good AP summary here from the Doylestown Intelligencer / AP. The top-line: Sen. Joe Lieberman accused Howard Dean in a campaign debate Tuesday night of turning his back on Israel, and the Democratic presidential front-runner shot back that he and former President Bill Clinton held the same view on the issue. Dems' Favorite SongsFox News has a list of the Democratic candidates' favorite songs. The list is quite telling I think: Former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun-- "You Gotta Be," Des'ree.I always knew Bobby Graham was a parrothead. Ueberroth Quits Recall RaceFrom CNN: With the latest statewide poll showing his support in the single digits, Republican gubernatorial candidate Peter Ueberroth Tuesday pulled out of the October 7 recall race. September 09, 2003Copycat Tit for TatThere is an article at the DeMoines Register about Dean and Kerry's quibbling over who said what first. Dean claims that Kerry is stealing his foreign policy by calling for the involvement of the UN and Arabic speaking troops, a position Dean held in April. According to Kerry that position is implicit in statements he made way back in October of 2002. Just when you thought it couldn't get any more elementary, Dean is also claiming that Kerry stole a line from one of his speeches. "He has a line that I used in my announcement speech that he uses often, that the flag doesn't belong to the Republican Party, it belongs to all Americans ... He's welcome to take whatever he wants out of my speeches." Welcome to the big leagues Mr. Dean. Read a bit of commentary here. September 08, 2003Edwards Declines Senate Reelection BidFrom WaPo: Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) announced yesterday that he will not seek reelection to a second term in the Senate next year and will devote all his efforts to winning the Democratic presidential nomination. September 07, 2003Dean Dables in Right Wing ConspiraciesFrom the Chicago Tribune: Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean said Saturday that he holds President Bush personally responsible for engineering the drive to remove California Gov. Gray Davis from office, saying he believes the effort is another example of what Dean called the Republican Party's attempt to hijack democracy in America. You can read my commentary here or on the TCP Op-Ed Page. Electronic VotingFirst, a disclaimer: I'm an employee of Software Improvements. We do this sort of stuff - Satellite software, Weapons System software, Electronic Voting software, Medical software etc. So please check all the facts for yourself - a Google on "eVACS" for example. A recent article in MIT's Technology Review states some uncomfortable truths about non-electronic voting. How it's inherently very insecure and open to abuse. For all the problems inherent in electronic voting (e-Voting), the reason it's got a deservedly bad press is simply because of some woeful implementations. "Secret Sauce" might be a good recipe for a Fast-Food chain, but "Secret Source" code for an e-Voting machine is a disaster. And proprietary, trade-secret hardware... requires a degree of trust verging on gullibility. Here in the ACT (Australian Capital Territory), e-Voting was used on a trial basis in the 2001 elections. Anyone who cared to could read the source code used in the machines. Anyone who cared to could also read the source code of the Operating System that resided on the machines, and even the source code of the compiler used to make the binary images. Not many did want to, but it's available, free, for those who want it. Is the system perfectly secure? No way. Is the system vastly more secure than any paper voting system? Certainly, and provably. Is it more secure than the electronic voting machines currently in use in the USA? I don't know - because the software and hardware for those are all trade secrets, I'm not allowed to find out, and neither are you. We just have to trust them. Documents detailing the performance and history of the eVACS® system used in the ACT are freely available on the web, along with the source. One thing you won't find freely is the cost of the system. But as I work for Software Improvements, the makers, I can tell you. (I had nothing to do with the project myself, I was too busy making spaceflight avionics software at the time). The cost to develop the software was well under $150,000 US, (at least, that's what we got paid for it - that fact's available on the web too) and it runs on machines that cost about $1,500 US each. (All figures in the below quote are in Australian Dollars, about 65c US) The cost of the project in total was $406,000. So contrary to Glen Reynolds, e-Voting isn't neccessarily a bad thing. Better than paper, if implemented properly anyway. And if it's not implemented in a totally open manner, how come the US voter is standing for it, especially when there's a cheaper, better alternative? If us Aussies can develop a system like this, surely US developers can for only a few million, and have the satisfaction of it being "Made in the USA"? <humour>And if not, you could always buy one of ours for a tenth of that price. </humour> September 05, 2003Dems Defer Infighting, Attack BushDemocrats mainly avoided each other during their first Presidential debate last night, instead focusing their attack the President. From the Washington Post:
And here's an apt quote from Ed Gillespie, RNC chair, in the London Times:
September 03, 2003Wesley Clark May Not Be "it"An interesting column by Elizabeth Sullivan of Cleveland's The Plain Dealer, argues that Clark is his own worst enemy and may not be cut out for presidential politics. It never occurs to him that he could be wrong or that he might even have helped rope NATO into the wrong war in Kosovo. It was his repeated disagreements with Pentagon brass, as he pushed to expand the Kosovo war effort, that not only earned his early ticket to civilian life but also helped spawn the U.S. suspicion of NATO that persists to this day. William Saletan Skewers John KerryThough I think he steps over the line on or twice, Slate's William Saletan does a good job of summing up the problem most people seem to be having with John Kerry: namely, he's a coward. While it may be hard for Kerry to pin down a principled position, Saletan pins down Kerry with gusto:
The overriding question I've always had about John Kerry is similar to Saletan's: how can someone behave with such fearlessness in the face of flying bullets and exploding grenades, and such cowardice in the face of a few piddling liberal interest groups? September 02, 2003Latest Presidential Campaign PollsCuriously, everyone seems to be talking about the latest CNN/Gallup poll and its finding that most Americans cannot name a single democratic presidential candidate. What no one seems to be talking about is the the same poll has Lieberman pulling ahead of the crowd gaining 5% to lead Gephardt (the next on the list) by 10 percentage points. |