The Latest Line

The latest 2004 Democratic Nomination Odds, courtesy Campaigns & Elections:

Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 4 to 1
Sen. John Kerry (MA), 5 to 1
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 7 to 1
Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT), 7 to 1
Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 10 to 1
Sen. John Edwards (NC), 12 to 1
Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 20 to 1
Gen. Wesley Clark, 100 to 1
Sen. Joe Biden (DE), 200 to 1
Carol Moseley-Braun (IL), 500 to 1
Rev. Al Sharpton (NY), 1,000 to 1
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), 2,000 to 1
Someone else, 10 to 1

I've placed the full analysis in the extended entry.

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2004

Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 4 to 1 (20% chance; chances downgraded Jan. 30 from 25%). She’s not a candidate, and is likely to stay out of this race. But her potential appeal remains considerable within Democratic ranks (particularly among blacks and women). If none of the other candidates take off, there could yet be a draft in her direction; that’s why we keep her in the mix.

Sen. John Kerry (MA), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance). Overall, Kerry is doing the best among the contenders. He converts name recognition into votes better than anyone. But his path to the nomination remains fraught with serious obstacles.

U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance). Chances upgraded from 10% on 4/17/03. Gephardt opened his campaign on a very strong footing; his health care proposal is bold, dramatic and risky politically. So far as a candidate, he’s handled himself like a real pro. If labor gets behind him, he’ll be a big force.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance; upgraded from 10% 5/9/03). Though many activist Democrats view Lieberman as being too conservative – he’s running somewhat to the right of the field – and that hurts him with many constituency groups (i.e., labor, blacks, trial lawyers, environmentalists, etc.). But his South Carolina debate performance was superb, and it gave his sagging candidacy new life and credibility.

Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance; downgraded from 10% chance 5/9/03). Dean has the most grassroots enthusiasm of any candidate, and that counts in democratic primaries and caucuses. His anti-war position has given him substantial national credibility among liberals. However, since the Iraqi victory, some of his statements on foreign affairs and military issues are coming close to marginalizing his candidacy -- possibly putting him into a danger zone not only for the general election but also the nomination battle.

Sen. John Edwards (NC), 12 to 1 (7.7% change; downgraded from 8.3% chance 5/09/03). Though Edwards is perceived by many pundits and politicians as the most effective candidate of the bunch, he’s yet to demonstrate significant voter support. His performance as a candidate has, for the most part, fallen short of expectation. Though his large base of financial donors among trial lawyers gives his campaign reach and depth, his lack of state-by-state polling strength is telling.

Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance; downgraded from 6.3% chance 5/09/03). He has great experience as a governor and three-term U.S. senator, and his geographic base (vote-rich Florida) is an ideal launching pad. But he’s yet to find much of a voice, or an appealing message, in this race. His recent announcement fell flat. Constantly mentioned as a VP possibility.

Gen. Wesley Clark, 100 to 1 (1% chance). Still mentioned as a possible candidate, but time’s running short on this novice politico. He did well on CNN during the war, and there are some Democrats who’d like to have a candidate with military credentials. Could end up running for the Senate or governor.

Sen. Joe Biden (DE), 200 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Hasn’t gotten into the race and probably won’t, but could be an interesting late entrant if none of the top tier candidates get traction.

Carol Moseley-Braun (IL), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Though she has virtually no chance to win the nomination, her public appearances have been impressive. Her appeal to black women may garner for her a surprisingly sizable constituency.

Rev. Al Sharpton (NY), 1,000 to 1 (less than 1% chance). He’s the best public speaker of the field; funny, hard-hitting, clever. But his controversial past eliminates him as a contender. Nonetheless, he will likely get more votes than most of the party’s Pooh-Bahs now expect.

U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), 2,000 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Known as Dennis the Menace during his disastrous term as mayor of Cleveland, he’s firmly on the outside looking in.

Someone else, 10 to 1 (9% chance)

Demo Dean Makes Hay On Campaign Trail

From the Billings Gazette / Knight Ridder:

Ever since he bellowed from a Washington stage that he represents "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party," former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has had activists swooning and opponents cringing.

In his bid for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, the smallish man (5 feet 8) from the smallish state (population 600,000) is polling big in the early-contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire. He is rousing audiences with roaring speeches. He is organizing grass-roots support online. And he is infuriating other Democratic candidates -especially his fellow New Englander, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts - with snippy asides about them.

As Dean officially launches his candidacy Monday in Burlington, Vt., he has vaulted unexpectedly into the top tier of Democratic contenders.

Candidate's Son Cited In Liquor Theft Attempt

From the Chicago Sun Times:

Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean said Friday that his 17-year-old son and four other teenagers were cited in a burglary for attempting to steal liquor from a Vermont country club.

Dean, who canceled several campaign appearances, said his son, Paul, and teammates on the high school hockey team apparently were discovered early Friday morning at the Burlington Country Club by a police officer on routine patrol. Dean said it was his understanding that his son would be charged as an accessory.

''Children do stupid things and this is one of them,'' Dean said from a Minnesota airport where he was awaiting a flight to Vermont.

Misfires From The Hip Create Problems, Dean Discovers

From WaPo:

Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean has cultivated -- and developed -- an image of being a straight talker, someone who shoots from the proverbial hip without first running his thoughts by a focus group. But the former Vermont governor is finding that his outspokenness can get him in trouble.

Last week, Dean issued what was his third apology to a rival presidential candidate. After telling the Associated Press that he did not consider Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) a "top tier candidate," Dean recanted, telling the news service that he regretted the remark.

Edwards Brings Presidential Campaign To Tennessee

From the Chattanoogan (TN):

Sen. John Edwards, candidate for the Democratic nomination for President, will hold a reception in Nashville June 12 at 1 p.m.

The reception, to be held in the Freedom Conference Room, 223 8th Ave., North, is open to the public.

"The Tennessee Democratic Party is here to elect Democrats and Tennessee will play a critical role in selecting the next Democratic nominee for President," Randy Button, State Party chairman said, referring to Tennessee's February Primary.

Edwards Returns To birthplace To Celebrate 50th Birthday

From the Wilmington Morning Star (NC):

U.S. Sen. John Edwards and his parents returned to his boyhood home Sunday for a day of memories and reunions to celebrate the Democratic presidential hopeful's 50th birthday.

Edwards, the North Carolina Democrat who became a successful attorney before rising to the U.S. Senate, walked around the small mill home his father Wallace and mother Bobbie rented for $35 a month when they worked in the area's textile industry a half-century ago.

Graham Stumps In Arizona

From the Arizona Republic:

As the glow of military success in Iraq fades, President Bush will face the same decline in popularity his father experienced after the first Gulf War, U.S. senator and presidential candidate Bob Graham said Friday.

A bad economy sank the first President Bush, and "we're having a very parallel, indifferent, clueless" approach to the current slump, the Florida Democrat said on his first visit to Arizona.

Democratic Presidential Hopefuls In Eastern Iowa

From KCRG (Iowa):

Four democratic presidential hopefuls made the trip to Mount Pleasant, including progressive democrat and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Florida Senator Bob Graham, Congressman Dennis Kucinich from Ohio, and former Vice Presidential candidate Joe Lieberman ...

... There were also representatives on hand for today's event, they included representatives for Dick Gephardt, John Edwards, and John Kerry.

Reverend Al Sharpton was scheduled to be at the event, was a no-show.