The Command Post - 2004 US Presidential Election - Florida 2004 and the "Reagan Difference"

November 07, 2004

Irregularities | Florida 2004 and the "Reagan Difference"

This table compares the number of Bush votes in each Florida county with the percentage of registered Republicans for that county.

Look at, for instance, Liberty county. Liberty is apparently a small, rural, panhandle county.

In that county just 7.9% of registered voters are registered as Republicans. However, in 2004 Bush received about 64% of the vote. As the table shows, this is seven times what would be expected if people had voted as they were registered.

However, whatever other questions the table raises, this appears to be part of a pattern.

I downloaded the data for each of the presidental races from 1980 to 2004 and computed the percentage that voted for the Republican presidential candidate in each year, as shown in the table below. So, in Liberty county ("LIB"), 68% voted in 1984 for Reagan and 66% voted in 1988 for Bush I, while 64% voted for Bush II in 2004.

Looking at the table, for most counties support for the Republican presidential candidate peaks in 1984 and 1988.

The final column of the table below computes the "Reagan Difference" as follows:

1. Compute the average of 1984 and 1988.
2. Subtract that average from Bush's 2004 percentage.

Or: RD = 2004_result - average( 1984_result, 1988_result )

As the table shows, support for Bush II has fallen - in many cases by more than 10 points - in most Florida counties from the Reagan-era highpoint of support for the Republican presidential candidate.

Notes:
1. There's no guarantee the input data was correct or was correctly manipulated.
2. This offers no explanation for the differences between the Op-Scan and E-Voting counties as shown in the first table.
3. Only Democrats and Republicans and only the presidential race and only the general election were considered when doing the computations.

County code
1980: reagan/carter
1984: reagan/mondale
1988: bush/dukakis
1992: bush/clinton
1996: dole/clinton
2000: bush/gore
2004: bush/kerry
: "RD", the "Reagan Difference"

County	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	"RD"
ALA	42	53	50	37	38	41	43	-8
BAK	46	71	71	63	61	70	78	7
BAY	62	75	73	64	62	67	71	-3
BRA	45	63	63	54	54	63	69	6
BRE	64	73	70	58	52	54	58	-13
BRO	61	56	50	37	30	31	35	-18
CAL	39	65	64	50	48	57	64	0
CHA	67	70	64	51	50	54	56	-11
CIT	60	66	63	50	47	53	57	-7
CLA	67	79	76	71	69	74	76	-1
CLL	75	78	75	67	64	66	65	-11
CLM	49	67	65	54	53	60	67	1
DAD	55	59	55	48	39	46	46	-11
DES	55	67	66	53	50	56	58	-8
DIX	35	64	59	43	44	59	69	8
DUV	52	62	63	57	53	58	58	-4
ESC	60	71	68	62	61	64	65	-4
FLA	53	62	60	48	46	47	51	-10
FRA	45	67	59	51	42	54	59	-4
GAD	31	43	48	31	28	32	29	-16
GIL	40	66	61	48	49	63	70	7
GLA	47	64	59	47	47	56	58	-3
GUL	44	66	64	57	49	59	66	1
HAM	40	57	61	46	46	55	55	-4
HAR	49	72	68	58	54	61	70	0
HEN	51	69	66	54	49	59	59	-8
HER	57	63	57	48	43	48	53	-7
HIG	64	69	67	56	52	58	62	-6
HIL	54	64	60	53	48	51	53	-9
HOL	53	78	72	63	58	69	77	2
IND	66	73	70	60	58	59	60	-11
JAC	45	64	62	55	51	57	61	-2
JEF	40	52	53	39	42	44	44	-8
LAF	43	63	66	54	58	67	74	10
LAK	67	74	69	57	54	57	60	-11
LEE	68	73	68	57	55	59	60	-10
LEO	46	55	51	40	40	38	38	-15
LEV	43	64	60	46	46	55	63	1
LIB	44	68	66	57	51	56	64	-3
MAD	42	57	56	43	44	50	50	-6
MAN	65	72	65	55	51	54	57	-11
MRN	60	69	66	53	52	55	58	-9
MRT	71	76	73	62	57	56	57	-17
MON	59	67	61	48	44	49	49	-15
NAS	51	69	66	63	62	70	73	6
OKA	72	83	80	73	71	75	78	-3
OKE	46	66	61	49	41	52	57	-6
ORA	64	71	68	56	50	48	49	-20
OSC	62	73	68	56	45	48	52	-18
PAL	60	61	55	42	36	36	39	-19
PAS	59	61	55	47	42	49	54	-4
PIN	57	65	58	49	45	47	50	-11
POL	57	70	66	56	50	54	58	-10
PUT	48	59	57	45	44	52	59	1
SAN	66	82	78	72	70	73	78	-2
SAR	72	74	66	55	52	53	54	-16
SEM	69	75	72	61	57	56	58	-15
STJ	61	71	70	62	62	66	69	-1
STL	63	68	64	50	44	45	47	-19
SUM	45	64	60	46	45	55	63	1
SUW	47	68	65	53	56	66	71	5
TAY	48	69	69	51	47	60	64	-5
UNI	47	70	70	55	54	62	73	3
VOL	54	60	57	47	44	45	49	-9
WAK	49	67	66	52	48	54	58	-8
WAL	51	74	69	59	59	68	73	2
WAS	51	70	67	59	54	64	71	3

Posted by Lonewacko at November 7, 2004 03:50 PM | TrackBack

Comments

The pattern here seems fairly obvious. Florida has been one of the fastest growing states for several decades and the counties with the largest negatives have grown the fastest, i.e. have the largest non-native populations.

The residents of Liberty County, for example, mostly hark back to a time when Florida, like most southern states, only had one political party, Democrat. If you wanted to be mayor or sheriff, or even governor, you had to run as a Dem; Republicans had less influence then than Libertarians do today.

In the 1960’s, though, the national party was becoming more liberal, while local politics stayed pretty much the same. People still called themselves democrats, but generally voted for the more conservative national candidate. (The effect could be offset to some extent by nominating a southern candidate. That would make the contest somewhat local, where, with only one party, the man matters more than the party.)

This was very clear in 1964, when all but one of the states carried by Goldwater were in the deep south, arguably the most heavily Democratic part of the nation at that time. He lost Florida, but by less than 43,000 votes (2.2%).

The pattern is simply that newcomers to Florida bring their party allegiances with them and their votes follow very closely. Those with roots going back generations do not change their Democratic identity easily, even when the national party no longer holds their beliefs, but they will vote those beliefs.

You will find no better example of such a person than Zell Miller.

Posted by: jdmurray at November 7, 2004 11:18 PM

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