In times of insecurity, clear leadership has a great appeal. That is why Bush won.
Many self-styled sophisticates on the left, both in the USA and in Europe regarded Bush as a simpleton for his constant repetition of a simple message. Kerry was more nuanced, whatever that means. In reality he flip-flopped.
He voted for the war, then he voted against it. It was the “wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time”, or some such soundbyte.

George W Bush, for all his faults, gave people a real sense of what he was about.

Even if he sometimes used the wrong words, everyone knew what he meant.

There are lessons in this for UK Conservatives.

Be bold. Don’t be afraid to offend at least some of the people, some of the time. If nobody takes offence, chances are, nobody has noticed what you are saying. Don’t follow the opinion polls with your policies. Leadership implies you have something of your own to contribute to political debate.

Be consistent. If you don’t take a line and stick to it, you will confuse the hell out of your own activists who are supposed to be out there spreading the message, let alone the public.

Don’t try to swim too much against people’s preconceptions of you in vain pursuit of your opponents’ supporters unless you really do intend a permanent change of direction.

Conservatives have been promising to match Labour’s spending plans, except in a few minor areas, without raising taxes. At the same time, Oliver Letwin is trying to persuade people that Labour would have to make substantial tax rises if re-elected for a third term. Yes, Ollie’s sums might add up, but I don’t seriously expect the public to believe both propositions at the same time. The detail of the plans might support this but the simple message that you can’t have more spending without higher taxes is far more intuitive, even if it might be wrong. The type of person likely to vote Labour, come what may, will believe the Tories will make massive cuts to public spending, whatever Oliver Letwin’s protestations to the contrary. Others might secretly hope for lower taxes and believe that they are willing to take a chance with the Tories on public services but be unwilling to say it publicly or even to pollsters for fear of the opprobrium that may be heaped on them.

Let me propose a radical departure that may help the Conservative Partybridge this credibility gap. If Gordon Brown increases spending in the next budget, as he surely will, the Tories should abandon the policy of matching Labour’s spending pledges. Instead they should issue a statement such as this:

We can no longer pledge to match Labour’s spending plans because it would be grossly irresponsible to do so. They would lead to significant tax increases. If Labour is re-elected,taxes will rise. A lot. While we will continue to increase spending on public services by at least the level of inflation in our first term of office, the main challenge will be to find enough efficiency savings to prevent those tax rises.

by Wolfie