The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
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November 02, 2004
Misc. | Fox implies very tight race

      The exit polls remain top secret information, so we aren’t hearing who is ahead, but Fox did inadvertently mention one interesting set of statistics.  They imply a very tight race.

      55% believe the country is safer from terrorist attack, 43% believe it is less safe.  Bush received 78% of the votes of those feeling the country is safer, 12% of those feeling the country is less safe.  .55*.78 + .12*.43 = .4290 + .0516 = .4806, round to 48%.

      Kerry received 20% of the votes of those feeling the country was safer from terrorist attack, 86% of the votes of those feeling the country was less safe.  .20*.55 + .86*.43 = .1100 + .3698 = .4798, round to 48%.

      Of course, this doesn’t take account of the absentees, the early voters, or the two per cent who weren’t sure if the country was safer or less safe.  My gut is that the absentees break for Bush, but who knows how the others go?



Posted by Stephen M. St. Onge at November 2, 2004 08:21 PM | TrackBack
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