Today in political punditry from Sean Moronski, he treats us to his final predictions.

The only number to care about is 270 — as in electoral votes.

Last week, I gave an assessment of where I believe the Electoral College stands… not a whole lot has changed… with the likelihood that Maine will give all 4 of its votes (Bear bait amendments notwithstanding) to the Ds and that Coloradoans aren’t stupid enough to vote away their electoral clout by dividing their electoral votes by the popular vote percentage, I believe the College stands as follows:

Bush: 222 votes (26 states covering the South and middle America)

Kerry: 207 votes (15 states covering the Northeast, some of the Great Lakes region and the West Coast)

That leaves 109 votes up for grabs, which I predict will go as follows:

“Western 5-Card” - Nevada and New Mexico each have 5 electoral votes.  Bush has been trending well in Nevada and I expect him to hold serve there.  Kerry will probably win New Mexico barring a sudden Nader move.  Give them each 5.  Bush 227, Kerry 212

 “Iron Triangle” - The Upper Midwestern states of Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10) and Iowa (7).  Gore won all of these in 2000.  There will be no Democrat sweep this time around.  Bush will win at least one — Wisconsin.  I’ll give Kerry the other 2.  All will be close. Bush 237, Kerry 229

 “The BIG 3” - Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio

 Pennsylvania is the one Gore won in 2000 and Kerry will do it again.  Two reasons: the Philly suburbs have become fertile vote territory for Dems and there are probably enough votes that can be hustled (manufactured?) out of Philly to overcome the rest of the state.  Kerry 250, Bush 237

 Florida — the mother of all contests — won’t be razor thin this time.  For all the ranting and raving about 2000, it is estimated that Bush lost at least 5,000 votes in the Panhandle (located in the Central time zone) as the networks called the state for Gore while polls were still open.  Since 2000, Republicans have performed quite well in the state.  Hispanics, particularly Cubans, are motivated to elect Mel Martinez to the U.S. Senate.  Jews don’t have the same motivation to make John Edwards the VP as opposed to Joe Lieberman in 2000.  Close, BUT… Bush takes it… Bush 264, Kerry 250

Ohio… the center of the electoral universe.  No GOP has EVER been elected President without winning here.  The last Dem to win the Presidency without Ohio was JFK in 1960.  It will all come down to turnout — who is motivated more???  Kerry is not Clinton… he’s not even Gore… he doesn’t connect… W is not his father… whatever faults he may have, he will connect with enough Ohioans to win… Bush 284, Kerry 250… but wait…

UPSET SPECIAL… 4 votes are outstanding… in 2000, West Virginia was the Democrat state that came out of nowhere to go for Bush and provide the margin of victory… this time Aloha has a whole different political meaning… the latest polls out of Hawaii have Bush tied or slightly ahead… this time 4 years ago, Gore was up 19 in the same polls and won by 17… sometimes you have to make a call for the unexpected… lei the 4 votes for W…

final Bush 288, Kerry 250

for those of you who care I figure the national popular vote percentage margin will be 2.5%… Nader won’t break 2%

remember - vote early and often… for you Ds, election day is November 4… the Rs get to vote on November 2