I actually voted last week using one of LA County’s fancy touch-screen voting machines. The LA Times is reporting a record turnout for early voting - which is certainly true. However, the turnout has been nothing like it has been in other states (like Florida). 66,000 people voted early here in LA County, and while it was brisk when I voted, it was hardly swamped. I suspect this is because California is so solidy Democratic that there is less of a push for people to get to the polls.

Some are predicting a real record turnout in LA County (one office in the LA Times article predicts 3 million voters this year vs. 2 million in 2000). I doubt it. Among the people I have talked to over the last few weeks, it seems as if Californians are seeing this election as business as usual - at least vis-a-vis actually voting. Since the presidential election has essentially already be decided in California (and was basically decided before there was even any Democratic candidates), there are no “hot button” initiatives on the ballot this time, and the only congressional seat in play is in the Central Valley (thanks to gerrymandering) I think we will likely see a California turnout that is pretty similar to 2000. I had dinner with a friend of a friend who worked with Rock the Vote for many years and did Democratic GOTV campaigns before that (she’s from Arkansas and worked with Clinton) and she seemed to have the same opinion.

P.S. During the short time I was voting, two, count them, two people tried to vote who had not registered or lived outside of LA. The woman at the polling place became upset with both of them and told me later that that had been happening all day. She suspected they were attempts at voter fraud, but I can not imagine there would be any point in attempting to commit voter fraud in California. After all, Kerry is already winning, so it would be redundent for Democrats to engage in voter fraud. And Kerry is winning by such a wide margin, it would be futile for Republicans to try and tip California.

On the other hand, I do not believe the woman working the polling place was a volunteer (I believe they were county poll workers), so maybe she knows more than I do. Maybe there are independent “vote frauders” who have not thought through the futility of attempting this in CA.

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